Polls and goals
I’ve written a little about polls this election cycle, but not all that much. And that’s true not only just now, when Harris has been rising in the polls in somewhat alarming fashion, but also when Trump seemed to be way ahead. I didn’t rely on them back then in those relatively halcyon days because I continued to think that something would happen over time to cut into his lead, although I couldn’t predict what it would be.
And of course there was also the possibility of a fraudulent election, which remains the case.
As for the present polling on Harris, she’s a new candidate and most people didn’t pay tremendous attention to her as VP, now did they ever even hear of Walz till now (although we political junkies certainly did, as did the people of Minnesota). So I don’t think the polls now are all that meaningful although I follow them.
But I notice here and elsewhere that some people pay quite a bit of attention to them, which is understandable. Polls at this point indicate trends, although they can be manipulated. The trend is Harris rising, but whether that will last or reverse itself is completely unknown. What is known is that at present the polls indicate an election too close to call; sound familiar?
National polls are less meaningful than swing state polls, but both can change. There are polls showing Trump slightly ahead and polls showing Harris slightly ahead, in important areas. So any commenter or pundit or party operative can pick and choose from among them, depending on the desired effect. Cheerleaders for a certain side will choose to report on polls that show that side’s candidate ahead. Depressives (or concern trolls) will do the opposite: report on polls that show the opponent ahead.
And this election cycle already seems as though it’s lasted 25 years. And maybe, in some respects, it has.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I might note that it’s interesting that for many months before Biden dropped out there were loads of polls that had him trailing Trump, sometimes significantly. And now we have the post Kamala polls indicating a tightening race. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I might be tempted to infer some stuff about that, perhaps around actual poll numbers versus artificially inflated numbers and when they were used. But alas I’m no conspiracy theorist.
I continued to think that something would happen over time to cut into his lead
I can’t find the link but Biden, at one of his last public appearances before he left the race, said something like in the next few months you’re going to learn something new about Trump.
I wonder what he had in mind; if it’s real and not wishful thinking from a very old man then who helped put it together and when they plan to deploy it. October is the usual time but there’s nothing usual about this Presidential election or the last two.
@Nonapod: If I were a conspiracy theorist, I might be tempted to infer some stuff about that, perhaps around actual poll numbers versus artificially inflated numbers and when they were used. But alas I’m no conspiracy theorist.
I’ve had more than one job that required professional contact with media. They don’t write most of what they publish, it’s created for them by public relations teams on behalf of businesses, non-profits, and government. On the rare occasions they do write something themselves, they plan on what they will write before they start doing any research and cite only that which supports their pre-chosen narrative.
Most of what the media does is a form of marketing which is bought and paid for like any other marketing.
The proverb about anything free is “if you’re not paying for it, you’re the real product”. You didn’t pay for the polls the media publishes and comments on. Ergo, you are the product, not the poll. They have their narrative and they will cherry-pick whatever they need to out of those polls, even if the polls are completely honest.
The candidates pay for “internal polls” which they keep to themselves. They actually need to know what is going on. The media only needs to know what they wish you to believe is going on…
The polls are manipulated, as we know. What is less obvious is that the methods have changed and the older methods don’t work anymore. I finally got call from a pollster for something. I hung up. Some people will even lie to pollsters. We are a long way from “Dewey defeats Truman” but not any more reliable.
…if you’re not paying for it, you’re the real product.
–Niketas Choniates
Which follows upon the poker aphorism:
_________________________________
If you don’t know who the mark is … you are.
Nonapod – Polls have been saying for years that the voters want choices other than Biden and Trump. Well, Democrats gave them that. They may be rewarded.
Seargent Walz may be very corrupt. In addition to stopping investigation into SOMALI’s stealing from a federal poverty program that resulted in a quarter billion dollars in fraud — the biggest case of fraud so far uncovered related to the pandemic — he might just have racked up more malfeasance…through Minnesota Teachers Pensions investment “governance”.
The National Pulse writes:
“The Minnesota Teachers Retirement Association (TRA) pension program faces an independent forensic audit over suspicions that its investment board, led by Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), may be cooking the books to hide the extent of investment fees paid to Wall Street fund managers.
“Compounding matters, communications between state pension officials and a national trade association suggest a concerted effort to discredit the forensic audit and pension forensics expert Edward ‘Ted’ Siedle.According to Siedle, the Minnesota teacher pension fund appears to be seriously underreporting investment fees.
“This concern resulted in a group of Minnesota teachers crowdfunding to hire Siedle to conduct an independent forensic audit of the pension fund and state investment plans.
“‘A cursory look at the Minnesota Teachers Retirement Association leads to the conclusion they’re either a world class pension or they’re cooking the books,’ the pension forensics expert stated in late July. ‘Minnesota reported investment fees on the $26.7 billion teacher pension fund of $24.1 million.
“The teachers fund has a $6.6 billion private equity portfolio that would be expected to pay at least $132 million a year to fund managers.’However, even before Siedle officially began his audit in April, Minnesota bureaucrats were actively working to discredit the investigation, according to communications reviewed by The National Pulse.
“Additionally, the series of emails and text messages obtained by Siedle reveal staff with the TRA coordinated with the National Council on Teachers Retirement (NCTR)–a trade association for state teacher pension programs—to distribute ‘opposition research’ against the pension expert.”
So. “Good government” Minnesota may have fallen to “cooking the books” like any other Democrat machine gives city? Wow.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/08/09/pension-program-overseen-by-wannabe-vp-tim-walz-may-be-cooking-the-books-to-hide-payments-to-wall-street/
Do we really know how much yet Harris has improved on Biden’s totals? All else being equal it’s not unreasonable to expect a mild bounce for her simply because the Democrat candidate is no longer visibly senile. We’re still over a week away from their convention, which as neo suggested is like years in this campaign. An awful lot could happen. And will happen.
Remember in 2016 Hildabeast was heads above Trump in polls
They are what they want them to be, not reality
Please remember that Joe was losing the democrats in the polls. I talked to an 70 yr who didn’t know who to vote for because she couldn’t vote Biden after the debate. These polls largely show dems returning to the reverting back to pattern.
Trump support remains the same or relatively unchanged. Plus they have the typical over sampling of democrats to create the false impression of momentum.
Neo – “And of course there was also the possibility of a fraudulent election, which remains the case.”
It seem that Minnesota has been making that much easier during Gov Tim’s time in office.
In Minnesota
There are at least 500,000 foreign-born residents of Minnesota, about 9 percent of the total population.
All foreign-born residents, including illegal aliens, are eligible to receive state driver’s licenses and identity cards.
Everyone who applies for a driver’s license or identity card is automatically registered to vote.
Election authorities now automatically mail absentee ballots to all registered voters.
Minnesota also has a lifetime absentee voter list, so voters won’t have to ask for a ballot each election.
Making voting “automatic” under the guise of convenience is inviting fraud.
https://www.americanexperiment.org/dfl-election-agenda/
Well, most people don’t pay attention to elections until after Labor Day. I don’t know if Harris’s surge is attributed to her as much as Democrats coming home after RFK Jr. finally crossed the weirdness bridge too far with the dead baby bear prank. My guess is that the election is going to be as tight as Scrooge’s wallet before the Christmas ghosts came.
I highly recommend listening to Richard Baris the people’s pundit on polling. In summary his take is that all these movements are response bias rather than a movement in underlying opinion.