Maduro declares win
Of course he does.
As Erdogan said: “Democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off.”
And the people of Venezuela are the losers:
Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of the country’s presidential election on Sunday after securing more than 50% of the vote, although the opposition contends that the results are not accurate.
The National Electoral Council said at around midnight that Maduro received 51% of the vote, while the main opposition candidate, Edmundo González, had 44% support, according to The Associated Press.
Elvis Amoroso, head of the National Electoral Council, said the results were based on 80% of voting stations and represented an irreversible trend.
Despite Maduro being declared the winner of a third term, the opposition claimed victory, setting up a showdown with the government over the results.
Sound familiar? The opposition in Venezuela declared victory “without evidence,” of course. Evidence is made impossible to obtain [emphasis mine]:
The electoral authority, controlled by Maduro loyalists, did not immediately publish the results from each of the 30,000 polling booths across the country, impeding the opposition’s ability to challenge the results after alleging it only had data for about 30% of the ballot boxes.
“The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” González said.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado claimed González’s margin of victory was “overwhelming.” Machado said the opposition had voting results from about 40% of ballot boxes across the country and that more were expected overnight.
Officials and lawmakers in the U.S. and elsewhere expressed skepticism about the validity of Venezuela’s presidential election results after Maduro was declared the victor.
Speaking in Tokyo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. has “serious concerns” about the announced outcome.
Blinken, election DENIER!
I guess it’s okay to say the left fixes elections in Venezuela. But not here.
You may have missed – as I did at the time – this previous brilliant foreign policy move from our illustrious co-presidents:
Wonder if the Washington Post is going to run an update on this one. pic.twitter.com/ZuJGP0AEd1
— Omri Ceren (@omriceren) July 29, 2024
No one – not even Biden and Harris – is that stupid. One has to assume they either approved of the fraud, or didn’t care. And then there’s sort-of-president Harris’ tweet on Maduro’s win:
The United States stands with the people of Venezuela who expressed their voice in today’s historic presidential election. The will of the Venezuelan people must be respected. Despite the many challenges, we will continue to work toward a more democratic, prosperous, and secure…
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) July 28, 2024
You can read that as a bland expression of the idea that Maduro won and that it’s the will of the Venezuelan people to give him another term. Or you can read it as implying that the people’s will was expressed and needs to be respected but perhaps is being thwarted. That latter interpretation is way too kind, I think, but Blinken’s statement certainly indicates that at least some people in the administration aren’t buying the Maduro win. But I wouldn’t sit on a hot stove till they re-impose sanctions.
Why is Kamala issuing a statement and not Biden? Isn’t he still the President? Silly question, I know. Plus it raises the whole question of election fraud, which we know doesn’t exist.
Notice Maduro didn’t win a Fidel Castro or Saddam Hussein-like margin. This is the template for our vote in November: Harris will squeak out a 51% margin – or maybe even be “allowed” to lose the popular vote, but will have seen to it that there is just enough funny business in 6 or 7 swing states to win a comfortable electoral college victory. Then, the media will spend days saying, in effect, “suck it losers, this is how our system works.”
WaPo: Exit polling in Venezuela shows opposition beating Maduro by wide margin
I looked at some of the comments last night. One recurring theme was that “Trump is just like Maduro.” Or was that “Maduro is just like Trump”? 🙂 Sounds just like Francisco “Quico” Toro, former Caracas Chronicles editor, who here sounds just like the Reedy (Reed College graduate) he is.
I was going to reply, but I discovered that WaPo commenting now requires a paid subscription, and only over my dead body will I contribute any money to that rag.
Here are two quick retorts to “Maduro is just like Trump.”
Maduro has kept leading opposition Presidential candidates off the ballot: Capriles in 2018 and Maria Corina Machado in 2024. When has Trump ever kept Democrats off the ballot. On the contrary, there has been a concerted Democrat effort to keep Trump off the ballot.
At the time of the 2015 National Assembly Elections, Black Lives Matter cofounder Opal Tometi visited Venezuela. She made clear her support for Maduro. But Trump is just like Maduro…….
(It was either comical- or pathetic- that a BLM cofounder would support Maduro, given that Venezuelan police kill civilians at about 50 times the rate that police in the US do.)
BTW, the opposition won two thirds of the seats in the 2015 National Assembly elections- Venezuela’s Congress. Not to worry. Maduro dissolved it. Democracy in action, Chavista style. One victory, one time. The Revo may not be reversed…
On one hand, I hope Venezuelans riot and attack the government. I want a civil war. I want that to show the Left what will happen if the Dems steal the 2024 election.
On the other hand, I don’t want people killed.
I mostly hope that election integrity safeguards are in place so that the Dems can’t steal another election. That’s Job One in Trump’s next term. We’ve got to stop this.
“ And the people of Venezuela are the losers…” This is so true that it’s all that needs to be said. They all would rather take the knee to a Communist than fight back. The poor Indians are reminiscent of the Vietnamese peasants. They don’t get freedom at all and are only too willing to vote for Communists take control. And the big city folks are cowards.
I’ve been watching Venezuela’s slow collapse for over 20 years – since Hugo Chavez started his methodical looting of the country’s wealth, surrounding himself with thugs. Maduro has simply continued the process.
The people that can leave, do. It starts with the wealthy, then moves downward through the classes, with the most talented and productive members of society being stripped out of the system while it’s still game-able by intelligent people that have a little money and a skill to offer, elsewhere. They move out, increasingly desperate to migrate as their choices are winnowed by the government. I used to live in the Caribbean, so the effects were quite visible, a product of proximity. Many of the islands have their own ‘illegal alien’ problem, with Venezuelans. They are hard workers.
Eventually, you’re just left with the poor, who, starting with nothing, at least understand their plight. For them, it’s life as normal. For outsiders, it’s difficult to understand the willingness to endure the crime, the suffering, the poverty.
If you’ve never lived as a poor person with this kind of jackboot on your neck, where thug crime is subsidized by government and extra-legal violence is commonplace, then you have little idea of what they’re going through.
There is a fine line between bold and stupid. The Biden team crossed that line. The number of credentials needed to flub this one must be impressive, no ordinary person could be so stupid.
I didnt know that he was a reed college graduate that explains a lot
I oreviously thought he would be
sensible
Cabello who is the head of the sun cartel
The eminence gris behind the scenes
Maduro was the low man on the totem poll,
A bus driver among a melange of army colonels like cabello
@ Chuck > “The number of credentials needed to flub this one must be impressive, no ordinary person could be so stupid.”
The WaPo article derided by Omni Ceren indicates that “Biden” lifted sanctions on Maduro in exchange for the PROMISE of free and fair elections.
The foundation of animal (or child) training is that you never give the dog/horse/two-year-old the desired treat until AFTER it performs the promised action.
This isn’t stupidity among the Bidenistas; it is collusion.
Not that there isn’t a distinct element of stupid as well, but I’m going for malice at this point because the massive pile-up of fiascos has buried Hanlon’s razor, and there is no pony underneath.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
The goal of reforming government, which was attempted in the Constitution but short-circuited by amendments and court cases, is to create incentives that lead to less grift, graft, and corruption; they can never be eradicated in a human system.
Marxism exacerbates the bad incentives.
As Gomer would say: Surprise, Surprise, Surprise,l
Instapundit: AND, JUST LIKE THAT, IT WAS OKAY TO QUESTION ELECTION RESULTS AGAIN: US, allies demand Maduro show his election receipts in Venezuela.
Instpundit reply: Well, whatcha gonna do about it?
Miguel cervantes
Reed has a certain reputation, well deserved. Caracas Chronicles was balanced between Juan Cristobal Nagel and Quico Toro. Right/progressive, Maracaibo/Caracas. When Juan Cristobal left, CC became unbalanced. Quico always admitted he was progressive, but after Juan Cristobel left, Quico went off the deep end. Not very politic for Quico to take sides so strongly in USA politics regarding Trump. Like Michael Jordan said, Republicans buy shoes, too. By cutting off half the USA electorate for support of Venezuela, Quico shot himself in the foot.
Agreed that Maduro didn’t have the charisma of Hugo, and didn’t have Hugo’s political acumen. Godgiven Hair was a power behind the scenes, especially after Hugo died.
But Maduro wasn’t the doofus that “bus driver” implies. He became a bus driver so that he could run their union. Back in the day, before Hugo died in 2013, there were reports that Maduro had training in Cuba in the 1980s. There were also photos. Here is what I was able to find.El Espectador. Colombia.Nicolás Maduro, subversivo profesional (October 2022)
To be sure, just because Harris is unelectable doesn’t mean that she won’t be “elected”.
It heartens me to know other people remember Caracas Chronicles. I used to comment semi-regularly there, and its fate is depression and a major reason why – while objectively evil and tragic – I cannot get too worked up over the latest Soviet Sham Election. That said, I will say this: While Quico was always rather leftist and increasingly caught in the Beltway/Reed Fumes (and I noticed some worrying hallmarks of it such as TDS, kneejerk support for left wing socialist groups – including Brazil’s Petro, who literally ran on the Chavista Slogan of “Socialism for the 21st Century” while coaming not to be Chavista, glorification of Venezuela’s left wing populist tyrant Cipriano Castro, etc), Quico at least was willing to field questions and comments. It was when he stepped down and replaced by someone and the comments got taken off that I basically gave up on CC, leaving a bitter comment in Dissenter and then heading out, not looking back.
I think CC really epitomizes the failure of much of the somewhat classically liberal or progressive left when dealing with totalitarianism, and how when it does not fit into a more or less neat box they do not know how to address it. I think it also says a lot about people stuck in “Vote your way out” Mode long after that has become possible, as well as the hostility to gun culture or the like in spite of that being really the only possible remedy short of foreign invasion.
Maybe it’s unfair for me to write off a country because of a single blog. But I feel it really is emblematic of other opposition leaders such as Capriles. You cannot vote your way out of a robust, totalitarian system whose leadership is determined to hold onto power at any cost and who have the means to do so. Engaging in voting in the past three or so Venezuelan elections was a catastrophic mistake that did nothing but give false hope and help perversely legitimize a fundamentally illegitimate tyranny. The painful thing I think the current CC crew and many others can’t confront is that they are well past the point of Liberty or Death, and the sad fact is many of them – likely most Venezuelans – would prefer accepting slavery in order to preserve even a modicum of comfort (even though it really isn’t much, or safe). PSUV and Chavismo could have been stopped at many times and could still be stopped if enough people took up arms and fought it out (with or without some “convenient” and “mysterious” assistance).
This is why I have largely washed my hands of Venezuela as is, and why I’d be inclined to tell the likes of Caracas Chronicles or whoever the latest opposition frontrunner is that you need to plan a coup, not a campaign. A revolution, not a recall election. If you are willing to do THAT then all kinds of options open up, including PMC able to tango with the likes of the Cuban and Russian and PRC strong arms helping prop up the regime, and maybe later intervention.
But they’re not going to do that. They are so reflexively wedded to the system and opposed to anything smacking of the Right. And for the CC Soi Disant Leftists in particular I believe there is a vein of opposing Chavismo’s results rather than its principles, without the soul searching or awareness to realize how many of their beliefs and principles lead to where they are now. They also have badly underestimated Maduro and co. Maduro does not have the charisma or leadership skills of Chavez, but he also does not need them; he is a political operator and the machine to cement totalitarian rule was already built. Underestimating that is a key reason for the problem here.
It’s another depressing case of shrinking in the free world and Western civilization when it has been shrinking significantly over the last few years, and one reason I tend to be more interventionist and “Fight it out.”
@Turtler, yes, it’s hard to imagine the strong democratic virtues that Venezuela once had, back in the early OPEC days, and it’s good to see strong democratic leadership reasserting itself in a realpolitnik way in countries like Argentina and El Salvador, now. There seems to be a realization that strong, authoritative democratic leadership must occasionally take a role in course correction.
Our society has largely come to characterize the clandestine service’s role in historical campaigns as a bad one, Big Brother meddling in the affairs of nations. I wonder if there will be a resurgence and re-examining of these ideas now. It’ll be a lot harder now. But this would be precisely the kind of case that would call for it.
I think Venezuela’s decline is not accurately understood by most. Although it contains more proven hydrocarbon reserves than any other country in the world, including the Arab states, its worth has declined, as its infrastructure has crumbled. Pipelines that lay idle for years, become unserviceable; they corrode and become plugged. Similarly, suspended but viable oil and gas wells also degrade, and become dangerous and eventually, unproducible. These booked assets are now valuable only on paper, and the stranded hydrocarbons that result, may have in fact become unrecoverable in any realistic market.
Venezuela has let its vast hydrocarbon system degrade, sector by sector. At one point they were importing Iranian condensate to cut their own heavy crude, so that they could refine fuel for domestic consumption. Their only real cash flow now, comes from joint ventures that are cross-border, with Trinidad. They’re exporting gas into Trinidad’s LNG market. They have no leverage to loot this.
The hole that Venezuela’s thug-ocracy has dug, is deeper than many imagine, and not all of it can be backfilled.
Joel D. Hirst has recently said some things about Venezuela.
“There isn’t much more to say that hasn’t already been said. Hugo Chavez came along at a moment of particular stress, making that devilishly attractive argument, “You can live at the expense of others. You can have something for nothing. I will allow you to finally get revenge.” ……………………..
“Chavez promised to take money from the rich and hand it out to the poor. This is not a new idea. It failed in Venezuela for the same reason this idea always fails.”……………………..
“What makes people poor?” some academics ask. That is not the right question. Poverty is the natural state of man; we are born naked and we die as piles of mulch.
The real question is, “What makes people rich?” If you seek that answer, honestly, most likely your society will be rich. Honesty, integrity, morality, hard work, rule of law, family, faith, and restraint.”……………………
“Chavez’s redistribution did what all redistribution does, it empowered the state — and the capture of that state became the main goal of everyone; but bad actors, liars, charlatans, and the wicked have unique advantages to state capture.”
https://joelhirst.blog/
We see it over and over again. The myth of an egalitarian society is sold to the masses. Then when the Marxists take over, the Communist elite have the power and money. Everyone else is equal – equally miserable.
It’s a con that destroys once prosperous nations. And in fact, it’s a throwback to the old Medieval system of nobles and serfs. Just dressed up in some new phraseology to con the unwitting who believe in the something for nothing fable.
We’ve seen it many times in the last 100 years. The USSR, China, North Korea, North Vietnam, Cuba, Argentina, Chile, and Venezuela to mention the most obvious. Yet, people still believe it will be different this time.
Venezuela is at the point where the only way out is not at the ballot box, but with the cartridge box.
Turtler, a CC column endorsing COLOMBIA’s Petro for President – who eulogized Hugo as a “great Latin American leader”- was rather disheartening and an indication of the fall of Caracas Chronicles. You need to distinguish between friends and enemies.
Poor Quico, who time and again told us that Trump was as bad as or worse than Maduro, must cringe when reading about Kamala Harris endorsing the Venezuela election results- “the people have spoken.” Yeah, right. Quico, CC, and Venezuela: between a rock and a hard place.
Quico wrote a column last year on the Argentine election- seeing Argentina between a rock and a hard place between Milei and Peronismo.(not in CC) While I don’t agree with his assessment of Milei- I was willing to give him a chance- Quico had a good takedown of Peronismo. And Quico mentioned Rudiger Dornbusch’s work on Populism in Latin America. Good for Quico.
Like you, I have written off Venezuela. Which does not bode well for Venezuelans who want US support for a return to democracy. A fair number of my hometown peers had lived in Venezuela- not oil field related. I worked in the oil field in Venezuela, and worked in the US in a small company with a lot of Venezuelans. If someone like me, with much more knowledge of Venezuela than most Americans, has written off Venezuela, not a good sign.
I have an additional take on the end of commenting at CC. Commenting there had gotten out of hand, which was entirely Quico’s fault. He should have stayed out of US politics. I figure the new proprietors of CC figured that the comments were more trouble than they were worth, and since many commenters were not contributing to CC ( I wasn’t), all the more reason to cut them off. Time for me to write off Venland.
Inability to distinguish between friends and enemies reminds me of a CC column from several years ago. A Venezuelan living in San Francisco was shocked at the support that lefties in San Francisco gave to Maduro. Anyone with any knowledge of SF and the Bay Area knows that they are replete with bat guano crazy lefties. Support of Maduro- par for the course. The author went on to state that she had chosen lefty San Francisco over “right wing” Miami. “Right wing” Miami is the enemy of Commie Cuba. Maduro is friends with Commie Cuba. So, “right wing” Miami is the enemy of Maduro. Friends and enemies…..
What makes the CC author’s article on San Francisco even more absurd is that San Francisco elected Chesa Boudin as District Attorney(and later voted him out.). Chesa, who got invited to Miraflores (Venezuela’s White House) within 24 hours of arriving in Caracas, courtesy of being lefty terrorist royalty. Chesa, who worked for a year in Miraflores as a translator. Chesa, who co-authored The Venezuelan Revolution 100 Questions—100 Answers. From page 9:
Communist or not, scare tactic or not, “political power and modest economic gains” were certainly lost.
Regarding elections versus revo. Need to ponder that. Problem here is that Chavismo has the guns. Rock and a hard place.
I hope that Kamala gets drilled hard on her “the people have spoken” nonsense. Nonsense, but par for the course for her.
J.J.
Joel D. Hirst’s blog mentions two fiction books he wrote about a possible future for Venezuela: The Lieutenant of San Porfirio and The Burning of San Porfirio. I recently read them. I highly recommend them. Moreover, they are not expensive.
Thanks for the recommendations, Gringo.
Blinken had to be involved, and it is the duty of the State Department to make things worse, whenever possible.
@Gringo Derp on me, this is what I get for not checking the info. I remembered the name and how it was grotesque, but not the country and specifically HOW grotesque it was. In my defense it was also around the time they went on an anti-Bolsonaro Bend.
Bed = Made, as much as I hate to say. It also shows how Quico never really knew Chavismo or what it was about.
Yeah, and fair. The issue for Quico is that Argentina had been stuck in alternating cycles of Peronismo and Statist Anti-Peronismo pretty much since WWII, with ruinous effect, and more devastating big government stuff for even longer. It was time for a change. Millei might still go wrong, but I do not know how.
I will support a Venezuelan return to Democracy, but I will support it in the ways I believe are effective. That includes giving out weapons and logistical support to those willing to fight for it, or even a less odious form of dictatorship.
But that caveat aside, I am sorry on your end. It sucks absolutely. I never had that personal connection to Venezuela or Venezuelans personally, and my sympathies go out. I just feel that there is not much else I can do.
Perhaps commenting had gotten out of hand, but that was largely because CC had gotten out of hand. The comments were a relative oasis where people could argue and debate and make a point. I wrote several longform comments as I am wont to do there, and it had an impact. In any case, taking away commenting was a good signal for me to indicate CC no longer wanted my attention. And it looks like I was not alone: support for CC cratered after the switch. Maybe that is one thing Quico was right on.
What’s all the more important is that you can make a very good argument that Chavismo and the entire PSUV dictatorship is basically a vassal or wealth redistribution scheme on behalf of Communist Cuba. They are major benefits of largesse from Caracas and in commanding positions helping to train and advise the regime’s security apparatus. This is one thing I think JDR’s otherwise epic “suicide” blog on Venezuela misses: like most deaths it was not merely suicide but also murder.
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/cubas-intelligence-masterstroke-in-venezuela/
https://www.voanews.com/a/americas_exiled-venezuelan-spy-chiefs-speak-out-about-corruption-cuban-ties/6172418.html
That also is important, because I think it makes a home grown, purely Venezuelan “fix” to the problem that much less likely. Too many foreign players have too many incentives to step in and kill their way through to keep things like the money train coming. It’s hard to have 1989 Romania style defections when you have the regime stiffened by Cuban or Russian or Chinese Communist mooks in positions of power.
There’s this old saying. “There comes a time to join the side you’re on.”
So many Venezuelan Lefties opposed to the PSUV never understood it.
Yup. It is one of the things that makes me throw up my hands and scream “WHAT DID YOU EXPECT WOULD HAPPEN YOU SILLY PEOPLE?!?!”
Indeed, among others.
Oh I know. What’s worse, Chavismo has foreign friends with boots on the ground and a willingness to kill to retain power like they have in Cuba and the PRC. But violence, horrible as it is, has already come. Moreover, it can play out in surprising ways. You can catch even a well armed and experienced spec ops soldier – let alone his colleagues in the regular military or various paramilitaries or police – by surprise and hope to overpower him. You never will be able to catch the entrenched PSUV bureaucracy or patronage/spoils system unawares at the ballot box, because you have to go up to play on their grounds. And that is a fool’s errand.
Agreed indeed. It was disgusting cowardice and appeasement.
Blinken has that pained concerned look.
Not just bold, but actually stunning and brave!
colombia’s petro, an actual ex M-19 guerilla, yes we come to the Einstein definition of insanity, ‘you do the same thing over again’ now the Opposition has tried all the tactics in their tool chest, coups in 2002, and 2018, civil dissobedience in 2012, onward, and the kabuki elections whats left, with the Peronist opposition,
now how did Venezuela get here in the first place, there was the collapse of the social safety net because it was tied to petrol funding, then CAP’s triumphant return and the doublecross on the austerity plan, and the Caracazo, which led the way to the rising the following year by Chavez, Cabello and in lesser note, AlCala, who was the plotter in 2018, then Caldera, the other dinosaur this time from Copei sprung Chavez from jail and then Bob’s your uncle,
extricating oneself from popular front regimes, is not easy, they failed in Bolivia, and the matter is under review in Peru, there was some success in Argentina,
we shall see how far Milei gets, with the Peronist opposition,
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1818335136838304161?t=uufpoeiW60JnZJYWve6BLw&s=19