More on the shooter’s movements and possible motives
Strange stuff:
So Crooks was spotted early on with a rangefinder. I wonder if security had ever considered whether a rangefinder – in the absence of a weapon – would be allowed. At any rate, the officials who were alerted lost track of him. And in fact Crooks seemed to have been sighted several times by different officers, flagged as suspicious for different reasons each time, and lost by law enforcement. Did they communicate with each other? Did anyone ever realize this was the same person over and over? Did they have a clue what level of suspiciousness would be enough to stop the proceedings or delay them, until the suspicious person was identified and in custody or ascertained to be non-dangerous?
These reports only solidify my original notion that what went on in Butler, PA, last Saturday was a case of gross incompetence, terrible communication and coordination, stupidity, complacency, and lack of imagination.
We also have learned that Crooks’ parents had reported him missing hours before the shooting. They seem to have been alarmed:
His father told law enforcement he assumed his son had gone to the shooting range at the The Clairton Sportsmen’s Club to practice with his rifle and would be back by 1pm on Saturday, CNN reported. …
But as time went on he grew more concerned and phoned local law enforcement. …
Both of Crooks’ parents are behavioral therapists and Crooks’ father said he was baffled by his son’s actions.
That article also contains a pretty good timeline of Crooks’ movements and interactions with security.
I have a strong suspicion that Crooks revealed very little of his true self to his parents. He was a secretive cipher, quiet but with an internal life that finally exploded in the assassination attempt – which I see as his way to be famous and make history. We also have this from an ex-classmate, who says that Crooks didn’t like any politicians:
A former classmate of would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks says the 20-year-old gunman once mocked him over his support of former President Donald Trump and had a general disdain for mainstream politicians across the political aisle.
“I brought up the fact that I’m Hispanic and, you know, I’m for Trump. And he said, ‘Well, you’re Hispanic, so shouldn’t you hate Trump?'” Vincent Taormina told Fox News Digital Tuesday. “No. He’s great. He was a great president. He called me stupid – or insinuated that I was stupid.” …
Taormina [said] that Crooks was usually quiet, except on certain topics that he seemed passionate about, including math and politics. And on those issues, he could be “smug [and] arrogant,” he added.
This fits exactly with my current theory, which is that Crooks had grandiose ideas about himself and that he committed the crime to overcome the fact that despite his great superiority he was still a nonentity. This is very similar to Oswald, who found that JFK was a target of opportunity due to the motorcade route but who had no special animus towards JFK but was hostile towards many public figures, including General Walker, whom he had tried to assassinate earlier. Oswald had a very firm sense of his own superiority but was also a failure and nonentity – and was a relatively young man as well, only just turned 24 years old.
Here’s an interesting video on security at Butler:
Seems like he was fairly intelligent, evidently having just aquired an associate degree in engineering science from the local community college. He was likely nowhere near as smart as a character like Ted Kaczynski though.
So we have a kid who was a higher end midwit, arrogant, misanthropic, deeply withdrawn, and likely resentful of others and society in general, probably frustrated that nobody recognized his self percieved greatness, obviously suicidal, and looking to lash out in a dramatic way.
Nonapod:
Good summary. I think the picture is pretty clear at this point.
He reminds me also of the Las Vegas shooter, whose motives remain mysterious – purposely so. I wrote about him at some length, and I believe that he was motivated by a sense of his own superiority and wanting to make his mark in a violent way.
That second video is great…
Would a black male have been treated the same? Anyway, this looks like something that will attract more fame seeking whackos – ‘Jeez, if dummy Crooks almost got it done, then I could definitely get it done, and be famous forever.‘ Am surprised that Trump hasn’t had a portable protective contraption built yet…portable enough to setup in various angles, and still leave a good view of him. Quick glance showed some glass/poxy (??) can withstand one or two 50 calibers.
Spotted with a rangefinder. Good at math. Member of a shooting club. All that goes a long way towards being a good distance shooter. Then again, some commenter here mentioned that he failed to become a regular team member in a school shooting club. The club could have been selective about his odd personality.
But a rangefinder? That’s huge, and the excuse that he may have wished to use it only as viewing optic, is very weak. You can get cheap viewing monoculars that are much better for viewing. And more compact.
I am beginning to wonder about the rules and chain of authority to patrol, detain people, and take counter-sniper shots.
One way to look at this is the Swiss cheese model. Imagine a series of slices of Swiss cheese. Now draw a straight line through the holes. At some point, a few slices in, you run into a solid section.
So it is with security. There might be a hole here, but a bit further on, someone will stop you, and the threat ends. Sure, it’s possible that the holes could line up perfectly and allow a shooter in close, but very unlikely, especially if the shooter wants to escape.
We don’t know how many potential shooters have approached such events, only to encounter some aspect of security that discourages and sends the shooter home. But that didn’t happen on Saturday.
First, you need a disaffected person, with enough smarts to execute a simple plan. Then, you need fractured security responsibilities, with no one outside the close detail completely sure who does what. Then when the shooter is spotted as suspicious, the command post either doesn’t pass that information to the close detail, or the head of that detail ignores it.
And that’s the key, right there. Trump shouldn’t have been on the stage at all while a suspicious person was moving about. That’s the most simple and effective response. Either Trump’s speech is delayed, or he’s escorted off stage until the threat is resolved. It’s happened before with Trump, four times at least.
Dan Bongino, former Secret Service, says his sources told him Trump’s threat level was off the charts. Yet the head of the agency repeatedly denied additional manpower, and the manpower there seems . . . DEI-ish.
From what we’ve heard so far, the local cops (who supplied all the countersnipers) were screaming at the command post that there was a problem. Those folks cannot be silenced.
Gordon Scott:
I read that the counter-snipers were Secret Service.
Nota bene. Young people can turn out rotten even if they don’t go to Harvard or Columbia. I’m not sure the Ivy League is worth the quarter million in four years’ tuition, fees, housing and food, but maybe it does keep some kids off the roofs.
“Karmi on July 17, 2024 at 4:08 pm said:
That second video is great…
Would a black male have been treated the same?”
perhaps with our frito bandit diversity seeking SS,they’d allow more shots to get off because they’d be sensitive to his rage.
Neo, I guess I’m confused. The ones in the building from which the shooter fired were local. I guess I’m not sure about the one on the roof behind Trump. Bongino said countersnipers are not part of the protective detail, which is a small part of the overall USSS.
There are a lot more uniformed USSS than protective detail.
Gordon Scott:
I’m not sure either.
[If the agent in charge during his briefing the day of the visit “told a police officer, ‘hey, you know what? This roof is a problem for us, we’ve identified it as a potential problem. This is your responsibility. Keep an eye on this and make sure nobody gets up there,’ and it turns out that officer didn’t do it, then it’s on the officer,” said James. “But if no one was ever given that direction, then that’s a failure on the part of the site agent.”] Jeffrey James in https://www.twz.com/news-features/experienced-snipers-break-down-the-trump-assassination-attempt
Why the SAIC let Trump take the stage while reports indicate there was at best confusion over whether there was a threat or at worst while they were searching for the threat is a mystery. Regardless of what else comes out of the investigation that SAIC for the Butler visit is about to go under the bus or into retirement.
Re: Snipers in assassination attempt building
My understanding is that local police were in that building.
Joe Rogan breaks it down:
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The whole thing’s nuts. The whole thing stinks of either incompetence or a design or we’re in The Matrix — like this is a fake movie.
–Joe Rogan, “Joe on the Trump Assassination Attempt”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af_BsEH5qFk
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It does feel like a bombastic movie based on a 21st C Ayn Rand novel.
Actor James Woods on X: (paraphrased) They better damn well start giving us accurate information or there’s going to be hell to pay.
Yes. That crap about the roof being too sloped should be the last straw in her firing.
The always astute Naomi Wolf, who is very familiar with the structures and procedures for these kinds of events, may be onto something:
https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/lady-macbiden
I don’t have any clear answers but I believe there is malice mixed in with the incompetence. Given the current atmosphere of the most vicious and desperate hatred directed toward the man, I have little doubt that, after the failure of lawfare, that there are people in high places that favor the “final solution.”
His father is concerned when he cannot account for several hours of how his 20 year old son spends his time? From 7th grade on, I left home for school in the morning and checked in for dinner at 6 p.m. Weekends were not much different. Sounds to me like a helicopter father whose approach would be more appropriate for a 10 year old than a 20 year old. I wager that, as a 20 year old, Thomas Crooks resented this helicopter parent approach. I would have resented it as a 12 year old, but I am of a different generation, when parents were more laissez-faire in their approach to how their children spend their time.
Neo
Agreed. I suspect there was a lot of masked resentment towards his parents. His secretiveness was a way of making sure that expressing his resentment didn’t burn out of control.
I’m not a psychologist. I just play one on a television show. 🙂
I have little doubt that, after the failure of lawfare, that there are people in high places that favor the “final solution.”
Marisa:
Quite. Let us not forget the DISGRACED Act designed to strip Trump of all SS protection if he becomes a convicted felon (he has).
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House Democrats have introduced a bill that would strip Secret Service protection from convicted felons sentenced to prison, a move directly targeting former President Trump who is currently on criminal trial in New York City for alleged hush money payments made during the 2016 election campaign and faces several other cases which could land him behind bars.
Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., the former chair of the now disbanded Jan. 6 congressional committee, introduced legislation that would automatically nix Secret Service protection for those who have been convicted of a federal or state felony that carries a minimum one-year prison term.
The proposed bill is provocatively called the “Denying Infinite Security and Government Resources Allocated toward Convicted and Extremely Dishonorable (DISGRACED) Former Protectees Act.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-look-strip-secret-service-protection-trump-convicted (April 20, 2024)
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What would happen to Trump if imprisoned without SS protection? It’s hard to miss a lethal threat with plausible deniability.
BTW, Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss, is a real piece of work.
Note that he was the chair of the J6 committee.
Furthermore, after the assassination attempt on Trump, Thompson had to fire a staffer posting on FaceBook:
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I don’t condone violence but please get you some shooting lessons so you don’t miss next time ooops that wasn’t me talking.
–Jacqueline Marsaw, a case manager and field director for Rep. Thompson
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jul/14/jacqueline-marsaw-democratic-aide-fired-by-rep-ben/
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The fish rots from the head. I’m not forgetting these Democrats.
}}} a case of gross incompetence, terrible communication and coordination, stupidity, complacency, and lack of imagination.
WHAAAAT? A government agency which has been very vocal in its intention to implement DIE policies (literal, in this case) over merit-based hiring and promotion is demonstrating “gross incompetence, terrible communication and coordination, stupidity, complacency, and lack of imagination”??
WHAT YOU TALKIN’ ‘BOUT, WILLIS?
}}} I’m not a psychologist. I just play one on a television show.
Neo plays one on a reality tv show…
OK, a reality show…
ALL RIGHT. all right: Reality. 😛
}}} Nota bene. Young people can turn out rotten even if they don’t go to Harvard or Columbia. I’m not sure the Ivy League is worth the quarter million in four years’ tuition, fees, housing and food, but maybe it does keep some kids off the roofs
Can’t speak for Haaaavad or Columbia, but MIT? Doesn’t work for peeps at MIT… 😀
http://hacks.mit.edu/Hacks/by_year/1994/cp_car/
LOLZ.
Helicopter pic:
https://c.o0bg.com/rf/image_r/Boston/2011-2020/2015/09/04/BostonGlobe.com/Metro/Images/03302009_30flash-7933819.jpg
And trust me, that’s hardly the only time MIT students have been up there. Search “MIT Great Dome Hacks” for more amusements.
Huxley:
Furthermore, after the assassination attempt on Trump, Thompson had to fire a staffer posting on FaceBook: “I don’t condone violence but please get you some shooting lessons so you don’t miss next time ooops that wasn’t me talking.”
From the link:
She definitely puts the “die” into “diehard.” 🙂
That is possible, but of the hundreds of such examples of “don’t miss the next time”, how many were meant as jokes? Not many, I suspect.
Perhaps she DID intend it as a joke: “oops that wasn’t me talking.” As I see it, many times we will express as a joke something about which we are actually dead serious. If we said it in a manner that was very serious, we might risk some negative feedback. If we express it as a joke, we can avoid that negative feedback. Jokes about blacks or Jews- undoubtedly some of the joke tellers strongly disliked blacks or Jews.
I have long been close to a cousin my age. However, her brother and I have never been comfortable with each other. Perhaps we are both too introverted. One time I was visiting NYC, staying with my female cousin and her family. I did not see her brother, also in NYC. He said that I was “threatening to come” see him and his family. While that was obviously a joke, it also hid a truth- that he and I were both uncomfortable with each other.
I have a strong suspicion that Crooks revealed very little of his true self to his parents.
I’m expecting that it’s going to come out that Crooks was on the high functioning end of the Autism spectrum. He fits the pattern. Very intelligent, but went to Community College instead of University. Had what sounds like a menial job. 20 years old and no social media presence. I’ve got a relative on the spectrum who’s somewhat similar.
Gringo:
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Many a true word is spoken in jest.
–Geoffrey Chaucer, “The Canterbury Tales”
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Which was already an aphorism in Chaucer’s time.
@ North > “I’m expecting that it’s going to come out that Crooks was on the high functioning end of the Autism spectrum”
Which would explain why his parents were keeping a close watch on his absences: what Gringo said is generally something I agree with, but you aren’t a helicopter parent in the case of autists; you are a necessary monitor.
Well, the 72-hour-rule has been observed and then some, but the situation is as murky as ever. Each time I read a new post, it contradicts something reported earlier, and then the next one contradicts THAT one.
The reporting is verging on Uvalde-esque, especially on the finger-pointing and blame-shifting.
Here is one example:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/17/exclusive-butler-township-commissioner-officer-who-encountered-would-be-assassin-did-not-retreat-not-to-blame/
Not the part about clarifying the roof-climbing officer’s situation, but the bolded assertion:
Which contradicts part of this earlier report, by the same media outlet, about the same police force:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/16/reports-police-were-stationed-below-trump-shooter-who-was-allegedly-spotted-nearly-30-minutes-before/
Hard to do traffic control from inside a building, and climbing on shoulders is not the same as getting lifted up on someone’s hands.
I guess I’ll wait another 72 hours and see what develops.
However, one thing I am sure of:
https://thefederalist.com/2024/07/15/any-assassination-investigation-that-includes-merrick-garland-or-chris-wray-is-a-coverup/
AesopFan
Point taken.
Several Federalist posts have already been referenced by other commenters, but these raise some good questions, and might provide some answers.
https://thefederalist.com/2024/07/17/mission-fail-perspective-on-the-trump-assassination-attempt-from-a-former-secret-service-agent/
https://thefederalist.com/2024/07/16/why-does-the-biden-admin-have-100-percent-confidence-in-secret-service-after-assassination-attempt/
“For Democrats, every failure is actually a success, which means there is never accountability.”
It’s a cinch we aren’t going to get answers from DOJ, FBI, or DHS.
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/07/17/agency-officials-cut-short-hill-briefings-on-trump-shooting/
A clarification based on new information: The uniformed division of the USSS has countersnipers, but not the protective detail, the people in the black suits.
Again, listening to Dan Bongino, who has sources inside USSS, there is a document created by the advance team which specifies what resources are needed. Bongino says that needs to be subpoenaed before it disappears. If it turns out that the advance team said 4 teams were needed and two of those 4 were diverted to the Jill Biden EdD event (lower threat level, smaller venue), well then.
It’s worth keeping an eye on Bongino’s podcasts this week. He’s at RNC and has a good roster of guests, and he’s doing more than one show a day. His show with Tucker Carlson and Don Trump Jr. was entertaining and informative.
‘July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds’
I’ve seen conflicting reports as to whether the father reported the son missing before or after the shooting, so that one is still up in the air.
I’d also wondered about a parent who gets worried after his 20 year old son is missing for a couple of hours. If I’d called the cops every time my kid’s locations were unknown for a couple of hours when they were around that age, I’d have been arrested for harassing the cops…but I hadn’t considered the Autism angle. I’ve seen no reports suggesting that, but I suppose it’s a possibility; however that doesn’t explain why they’d let him leave the house alone with a rifle at all if he was Autistic.
My thought was that if they became worried enough to call the cops when he went missing for a couple of hours, there had been some red flags that they just don’t want to admit to, but had them worried about what he was going to do.
Anyway, a lot of this is still just conjecture and supposition.
What is clear is that a 20 year old kid with no known military, combat or police training was able to breach the security of an event with national implications, find the best location available for an attack, attain a suitable position at that location and get off several shots at a figure of national import before being stopped.
It’s likely it was just gross incompetence, but it is absolutely legitimate to question whether there was something deeper going on. We may never know, and I have a feeling the results from any “investigation” coming from government sources is going to have less than satisfying results.
The “Swiss cheese model” has apparently proven useful in explaining how risk factors interact in the field of aviation safety. The main message is that even ostensibly minor risks can statistically compound to allow a calamitous result. Thus it is critical to not only mitigate the “big” factors (say, engine inspections), but to address little ones (say, practicing emergencies).
I can imagine an SS management pattern of decisions to shave away protective resources (quantitatively and qualitatively) that would find great approval with certain White House insiders, but could be plausibly denied to be putting Trump in any danger.
But this is simply removing slices of the Swiss cheese, increasing the possibility that the remaining holes will line up…
shooter might be trans or on the spectrum of same, so another unstable personality,
I suspect he was influenced by Kaczynski’s treatise on complex fractions. It takes a real man to leave a manifesto!