Trump, fate, and his convention speech
This is why I put up that clip from The Day of the Jackal yesterday:
Former President Donald Trump can’t stop thinking about the way he moved his head in the split second before a gunman, intent on assassinating him, pulled the trigger during his speech in Pennsylvania Saturday evening. Trump was standing at the podium and began to refer to a large screen, hanging to his right, that showed statistics about immigration. To better see the screen, Trump turned his head to the right and a little up, and at the millisecond in which his head was at just the right angle for the bullet to graze his ear but not enter his skull — at that moment, the bullet whizzed by. Trump suffered a bloody wound to his ear, but no other injuries. It seemed like a miracle.
“The most incredible thing was that I happened to not only turn but to turn at the exact right time and in just the right amount,” Trump said Sunday afternoon in a talk aboard his 757 as he flew to Milwaukee for the start of the Republican National Convention. “If I only half-turn, it hits the back of the brain. The other way goes right through [the skull]. And because the sign was high, I’m looking up. The chances of my making a perfect turn are probably one tenth of one percent, so I’m not supposed to be here.”
“I had to be at the exact right angle,” Trump said at another point in the conversation, which included the New York Post’s Michael Goodwin. “Because the thing was an eighth of an inch away. That I would turn exactly at that second, where he [the gunman] wouldn’t stop the shot is pretty amazing. Pretty amazing. I’m really not supposed to be here.”
You can’t have such a thing happen to you and not be at least somewhat changed by it. Does Trump think it was merely good luck, or divine intervention, or fate?
The relevant part of the Jackal clip is here:
In the movie, the would-be assassin gains access to a cleared building by masquerading as an elderly war veteran on crutches, but the audience knows that he has a high-powered weapon disguised as one of the crutches. The moment in which DeGaulle moves his head out of the way of the shot is preceded by a scene much earlier in the movie when the Jackal tests out the same weapon by firing it at a watermelon, which explodes and is a stand-in for DeGaulle’s head. At the time the movie was first released, the frame of the Zapruder film that showed something similar happening to JFK had not yet been shown to the public, but anyone who was familiar with the Warren Commission report knew that something similar must have happened to JFK. So the horror was quite fresh.
Here’s the movie scene with the watermelon. Although it only involves a watermelon, it’s incredibly horrifying:
Trump says he’s changed his speech as a result of his experience on Saturday:
Trump explained that before Saturday night, he had finished the speech he planned to give later this week at the Republican convention. “I basically had a speech that was an unbelievable rip-roarer,” he said. “It was brutal — really good, really tough. [Last night] I threw it out. I think it would be very bad if I got up and started going wild about how horrible everybody is and how corrupt and crooked, even if it’s true. Had this not happened, we had a speech that was pretty well set that was extremely tough. Now, we have a speech that is more unifying.”
Good luck with that.
The Republican convention has started in Milwaukee. Trump plans to announce his VP today, rumored to be J. D. Vance.
That’s interesting. I’m really curious to see how this speech turns out now. After the assassination attempt I think it’s a very smart move for Trump to be magnanimous and give a truly positive and unifying speech that doesn’t dwell on all the negative things he potentially could say about his opponents. Although I’ll admit that I find it hard to imagine Trump not being aggressive. Trump using lots of nicknames like “Crooked” or “Sleepy” and hammering on all the failures of the current administration seems pretty baked in to who he is. But he has an opportunity here and I hope to be surprised.
Trump has announced: Vance is his choice for VP.
Yeah, and the News has been out for awhile – Trump Picks Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as His Running Mate.
If there was a way to ruin Thomas Matthew Crooks’ ‘*GIFT*’ to Trump it would be maintaining the Republican Party as the ‘Party of White Men’ in America’s modern version of the infamous ’Melting Pot’.
I like Vance but…
What impressed me about Vance is his ability to get his points across when confronting a hostile press while maintaining his composure.
His life story is compelling and should resonate with middle America. Vance hasn’t forgotten his roots and hasn’t tried to run away from them.
Shouldn’t his humble roots count as the poor white kid with a troubled mother count for something?
Hollywood is notorious for filming firearms content that is physically incorrect or impossible. It is absolutely possible for some relatively common rifle to explode a watermelon in the scenario of the second clip. However, there are a number of problems with the clip.
The shooter presses the scope right up against his eye socket. That’s a huge no-no even with a low recoil rifle/shell combination as he is likely to injury his eye. Secondly, nearly all scopes don’t focus an image correctly if you did do that. The eye needs to be 1.5″ or more away from the scope.
He’s using some “ordinary” shells to dial in the scope, but then switches to some high powered round for the exploding melon shot? Yeah, but the amount of bullet drop depends on how powerful the round is. So you can’t dial in a scope that way.
The powerful round looks like a .22 magnum. It’s got some power and can certainly make a kill shot, but isn’t going to explode a melon. Can one add more power to such a round? Maybe a little, but a lot more power would explode the shell casing.
Finally, he’s aiming at the wrong spot for a highly probable fatal head shot. Of course, if the head explodes, it is moot.
I recall the actor and real retired Marine Corps. drill sergeant, R Lee Ermey did a show called Mail Call, where he shot a bunch of melons. IIRC, it was all shorter range with handguns and shotguns. But the latter did definitely explode a melon with the correct slug or shot shell.
TommyJay:
It’s a custom-made weapon with specifications discussed in detail earlier in the film.
Trump is clearly reaching out to the small group of undecided voters, maybe to rally suburban women to his side.
As to JD Vance, I’m luke warm to him, too. But Don, Jr has strongly advocated for him. And Jr us sometimes called “Trump’s brain.” Or really, his closet cabinet.
Trump has already done worse with Pence. But who knew? Vivek excited me more, but may benefit us more in his cabinet secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, too, would be a bold (and also veteran) choice.
Here’s Zerohedge on the back story: “Following Saturday’s attempted assassination Vance jumped into action – suggesting on X that President Biden bore responsibility.
“‘The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination,’ wrote Vance, who went from harsh Trump critic to ardent supporter.
“Donald Trump Jr. has repeatedly advocated for Vance – who in 2016 privately texted a former Yale roommate….”
Karmi, how about returning to merit as the qualifier for the office, or any other job? Anything else and you guarantee mediocrity and political conniving as a substitute for skill and knowledge. How’s that working out for the Secret Service right now with 5’4” chubby women trying to protect a 6’3” man? How do you think that a woman who could barely speak English except to spew DEI cant and plagiarized her PhD thesis could become the President of Harvard?
It would surprising if Trump didn’t feel somehow different after so close a brush with death. If he can pull off a more unifying speech, good for him.
Some interesting commentary on Trump’s courageous reaction after the shooting, with some being impressed enough to solidify their support and another saying:
““I experienced a sudden political transformation because I liked that after he got grazed by a bullet he stood up and pumped his fist” is just another way of saying “I prefer to base my politics on primal animal instinct,” which I’m pretty sure is a non-ideal way to do politics.”
Seem like there are some important socio-psychological, political-psychological, and sexual-psychological issues here, which I linked for discussion:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/71343.html
Kate:
I’m half in the bag for divine intervention, myself.
That was such a close, close call. We could be living in a far grimmer reality today.
huxley, there were people in the crowd who claim that, before Trump went on stage, the large flag hanging over the venue got twisted by the breeze into the shape of an angel. Several people have said so. Visible angel or no, I’m going with divine intervention for the good of the nation. May God receive the soul of the man who died instead.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/tangled-us-flag-resembling-angel-has-internet-convinced-trump-was-protected-by-god/ar-BB1q1DlL
@Karmi
Sigh.
Karmi likes Vance, but does not want him as Vice President because Skin Color. Because logic.
Ok Karmi, I’ll bite.
Firstly: WHO WOULD *YOU* PREFER TRUMP TO SELECT AS VICE PRESIDENT?
The cost of criticism is being willing to at least discuss alternatives. So where is yours?
Secondly: The Republican Party needs to be the party of moving BEYOND racial and skin color limits. Indeed, it arguably always has been, being a party borne on the principle of Abolition and that none deserved to be slaves.
Thirdly: “infamous Melting Pot.” Compared to what? Confessional Balkanization like we’ve seen here? I’ve worked on the border. I’ve also studied history. The Melting Pot is probably necessary for American Survival, and that becomes very clear if you’ve ever studied things like pro-Kaiser sentiment among German-Americans in WWI, the German-American Bund in the Interwar Years, the Ni’hau Incident (where longstanding ethnic Japanese settlers in Hawaii betrayed their neighbors in order to help a stranded Japanese Navy Aviator just after Pearl Harbor), and now the likes of Islamist infiltration like we have seen with Ilhan Omar.
Either you melt the majority of the national or confessional differences, or you have them melt your country down into a balkanized warzone. Just ask Milwaukee. And if we cannot make a good argument for that, then the country is already lost and it’s just about scoping out a suitable remnant state to take shelter in.
Et tu,
BruteTurtler? Ditto on the Sigh.Anyway, You’re weeks too late, dude…
@Karmi
Don’t act surprised. I call them as I see them. And unlike Brutus and co I will be willing to come out in front of you announced. I called you out for a truly unhinged take on forcing all Russians East of the Urals, and I have criticized you before. I probably will do so again. In much the same way I will give credit where credit is due.
Perhaps, but if true it is better late than never.
I also note you have not given a response. You like Vance but do not want him as Veep, then who would you propose instead?
And how can the US hope to survive without a melting pot effect and a willingness to look past skin color? Because I don’t know about you but I do not see the Res Publica being helped by someone appointing Ilhan Omar as VIP. But then I also see that being the case if James Mason was.
I’m with Turtler on this. Conservatives, and the Republican party in general, stand against dividing people by race, color, and religion. We believe in respect for personal differences and unity in commitment to the American system of government, and to American freedoms.
@Kate
What makes me more surprised is how Karmi says they like Vance and so apparently see value in him, but yet immediately pivots to talking about this being a race or skin color thing, so much that it would squander the “gift”. That baffles me on multiple levels. Most notably the first in assuming this reaction would be so common throughout America and whatever slums the Left gets those voter fraud balloteees actually exist from, and the second that they aren’t saying Vance is worthless or a bad candidate but that they in fact like him. So what is off?
That and talking about how “infamous” the melting pot is. And I suppose from certain points of view it is. But I don’t see good alternatives to it.
Turtler — by weeks ago I meant that I already had that conversation on who I liked…at least weeks ago. 75-85% of this blogs speaks a different language than me, hence my lack of conversation anymore, and mainly just links and comment on a post.
We’ve had good conversations before which is why I’m letting you know that my conversing here has been reduced considerably…
Yeah, I stand by that simple & truthful statement…
@Karmi
Fair enough, and good for you. And I mean that sincerely. But it was a conversation that either I forgot (which I don’t but is certainly possible), or was not part of it, and so I do not know. Hence why I figured it was fair to ask and also raise my points.
Also you seemed to be more than amenable to re-raising the point about Veep Picks and the “Party of White Men” (which i bluntly view as leftist agitprop and racialist nonsense), which seemed to rekindle it. And I was not alone in thinking this, as Kate indicates.
Fair enough, and I will give my compliments. It is hard enough writing in a foreign language, and you do it far better than I can. But it is still a blog with a talkative commentariat and you do comment on it.
Fair enough. I thank you for the notice, and I hope that things go well for you, regardless of any of our differences.
“Some interesting commentary on Trump’s courageous reaction after the shooting, with some being impressed enough to solidify their support and another saying:”
David, Trump is what is known as an Alpha Male, a Sheepdog, or a Warrior. Many men have this character in them. The gravitate to the military, fire departments, police forces, etc.
Trump would have been good at any of those things. But he inherited a real estate business from his father. He could have played it safe and done well. Instead, he took risks, and almost lost everything – three times. He learned from his mistakes, worked very hard, and became quite successful.
Anyone who has been shot at and the bullet missed, experiences a rush of hormones. A combination of shock and then elation that the bullet missed, and he’s still alive.
Alpha Males often get hooked on that rush of hormones; ad will actually seek danger because it feels so good to survive.
I saw this in the military. Combat pilots getting shot at every day and surviving the anti-aircraft fire get the hormone rush and some become addicted to it. Those are the Alpha Males. They make great leaders in the military because other men admire them and emulate them.
That’s the effect that Trump’s reaction after being nearly assassinated has on many men and maybe a lot of women as well.
He’s a seasoned warrior who will be a great C-in-C again. People are recognizing that.
Certainly I wish Karmi well. From his posts here, he’s had some tough times.
But I can’t disdain the melting pot. My ancestors arrived in the New World from Britain and northern Europe beginning in 1637, and all were here by 1750 at the latest. My husband is the son of a southern European immigrant. My brother’s wife is Thai. A nephew is married to a woman of some African ancestry. We’re all Americans.
Pingback:Instapundit » Blog Archive » NEO: Trump, fate and his convention speech. Plus a cameo from Edward Fox as a chilling presidential
Who trained this guy? Granted, for someone who is an adequate shooter this distance is insignificant. But the assassin looks like a nerdy, non-athletic pimply faced young man. Most right off the street don’t know how to shoot nor properly aim. I’m an indifferent shooter and probably couldn’t do it
Who trained this guy?
Tina:
True. That shot was supposed to be duck soup for someone with training, but not someone who just borrowed his father’s AR and went to a Trump rally.
And who is this guy?
I find it odd how little we know. He’s 20 years-old, a nerd, who was bullied in high school, but beyond that no one seems to have much to say. He has no social media history. What has he been doing since high school?
My conspiracy spidey sense tingles that maybe he’s a child whose parents put him into MKULTRA/Monarch Mind Control Programming.
https://vigilantcitizen.com/hidden-knowledge/origins-and-techniques-of-monarch-mind-control/
That would explain a lot. 🙂
Tina, it’s been reported he was a shooter, but failed to make the shooting team at his high school. Failing to make the team in Western Pennsylvania would likely still make you a good shooter.
The fact that he was disrupted no doubt made a difference– since the supporter killed by the assassin, Corey Comperatore, wasn’t directly in the line of fire. His shots were likely rushed.
Turtler 😉 this is the problem I find w/ conversing on blogs – once you start it can be hard to stop, and here I am w/ another reply already. 😛 Communication is another problem, IMHO. For example, I said “75-85% of this blogs speaks a different language than me” and you replied:
I speak only English and a tad of Spanish (probably .01% of a tad). I should’ve said ‘75-85% of this blogs speaks a different version of English than me.’
OK, I believe I have now explained why there is/will be less conversing by me here…
How Much of Communication Is Nonverbal? 😉
If I recall correctly, the Jackal misses the shot because he didn’t account for De Gaulle bending to air-kiss the cheeks of the man receiving the medal per ceremony. In that way the scene isn’t really an analogy to Trump since Trump’s movement was largely unplanned. That detail always bugged me about the story since the Jackal is presented as the consummate professional planner (there are a few other gratoutus detours as well, like the assignation with the aristocratic French lady but they’re pretty well worked into the plot). I suppose it could be excused because he’s obviously not French and so would not have a reason to be familiar with the medal ceremony but you’d think in order to figure out his position and angles he’d have to review documentation and photographs, and it didn’t cross his mind to find some way to review film of the action from previous years so he’d know how De Gaulle would be moving?
@ David Foster > “Seem like there are some important socio-psychological, political-psychological, and sexual-psychological issues here, which I linked for discussion:”
Thanks for linking your post. The discussions there are always interesting, and mirror somewhat the conversations here (I wonder why that could be??)
In particular, this theory is gaining credence in both places; see Neo’s post on Why was Trump still on the stage?
Although your following comment was not directed specifically at Xennady, this did have some relevance, IMO:
And thus we come to this:
physicsguy on July 15, 2024 at 4:55 pm said:
Not that it’s comforting, but I hope it’s total incompetence. If it’s the alternative we are royally screwed.
Questions.
Father’s AR, what was it zeroed at? Was it zeroed at all? What optic? It could be the ear shot was pure luck and the shooter had no idea where the rounds were impacting. I wouldn’t be surprised if half the ARs in civil hands have never been sighted in.
I just noted 7/15/24 on my calendar: “RFK Jr Secret Service assigned”
Joe Biden Orders Secret Service Protection for RFK Jr. Hours After Donald Trump Demanded It
It’s astonishing that it took this long.
See also VDH:
Assassination Porn and the Sickness on the Left
Trump’s instinctive reaction is correct. Sheer rage at some one trying to kill him. A refusal to to let him win. A sure knowledge he has to let his supporters know he is OK. All this is unthinking, just his reaction. Trump is a fighter , I expected no less.
Trump also has a basic understanding of showmanship. Honed by years of experience.
Trump has courage, but I expected that. I noticed in 2016 that in one rally at a hanger , that Trump spun at a bad guy getting up on his platform. Faster than USSS agents response. He is very aware of what goes on around him and will attack at threats.
He showed that same speed and awareness one he felt that bullet passing by his ear. He got down before USSS reacted.
My thoughts based on the fumbling response of his protective detail is that Trump’s main protection is his supporters. His supporters spotted the threat . They notified police. If his supporter were armed , they probably would have acted. Of course I understand allowing armed attendees is asking for trouble.
As to Stephanie’s emotional reaction that is also instinctive. Men are protectors. Women want that. Many women have had to assume that role themselves for lack of a male protector or to save themselves and their children. Women can be very fierce protectors.
The obvious issue of the short woman trying to interpose her body to protect Trump was laudable ,but comical. I expect she was the temporary USSS agent assigned and what a bad day for her. The other women fumbling to holster the weapon is a lack of muscle memory. They need training. At least they tried. However the problem of Trump’s size is on that has to be acknowledged and accounted for in his detail.
“It’s a custom-made weapon with specifications discussed in detail earlier in the film.”
Hi Neo, Just because a fictional plot can come up with a plausible sounding explanation for some anomaly, doesn’t make it any more physically possible. Hollywood enhances things for dramatic effect. That’s what they do.
Everything TommyJay said is right, including that the size of the cartridge loaded into that rifle was not sufficient to impart the damage portrayed in the movie.
I’ve been a shooter all my life. I grew up with a rifle in my hands. I’m an NRA and 4H rifle, pistol and shotgun instructor and shot with the US Navy marksmanship team for three years.
I’m not a sniper. Nor do I have combat experience. But I do have plenty of experience with rifles of all calibers up to and including .50 BMG. Some of my favorite “reactive” targets are watermelon and cantaloupe and I’ve shot probably thousands of them over my 50 years or so of shooting experience.
Yes, you can make a watermelon explode like that…but not with a cartridge that small, no matter how “custom made” the weapon is. That was Hollywood special effects.
This is not to say that a head shot with a 5.56 x 45mm at 130 yards wouldn’t be devastating. It would be, but that watermelon image was a bit overboard with what would actually happen.
For comparison, the most common loading for the AR-15 (5.56 x 45mm) is a 55 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 3200 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 1282 pound feet.
The “standard” loading for the rifle used in the Kennedy Assassination (6.5 x 52mm) was a 160 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 2400 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 2046 pound feet.
The damage done to Kennedy was pretty dramatic, but it didn’t compare to the watermelon in that video just blowing apart…and that was done with a significantly more powerful cartridge than depicted in that movie or the shooter on Saturday used.
BTW, the 6.5 Carcano (Kennedy assassination rifle) is not a particularly powerful rifle. It would be adequate for deer sized game. The 5.56 (Trump attempt rifle) is not powerful enough for that. Not to say you couldn’t kill a deer with a 5.56 – you could, but it’s not powerful enough to be reasonably sure of a quick, humane kill.
neo
The Jackal used an explosive bullet to shred the watermelon.
Ah, an exploding bullet. Hinkley used that in the Reagan assassination attempt. I thought none of them actually exploded, but Wikipedia says that one that hit Brady did explode. I wonder if The Day of the Jackel influenced Hinkley.
For those who are interested, more information about the Jackal’s custom-made sniper rifle and the rounds it fired:
https://www.imfdb.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal#Custom-Made_Sniper_Rifle
The bolt appears to be for rimfire (as opposed to centerfire) cartridges, so probably a modified .22 Winchester Magnum Rimfire (WMR). Rimfire means that the primer compound that ignites the propellant is embedded in the rim of the cartridge base, not in a separate primer seated in a pocket in the base. The .22 Hornet–another possible candidate–is a centerfire cartridge. The Hornet also has a bottleneck (tapered) cartridge case, unlike the cartridges shown in the movie.
If I recall correctly, the explosive bullets the Jackal used were drilled out with a narrow channel and filled with mercury. I don’t know whether an explosive .22 WMR round would have shredded an entire watermelon, but it certainly would have blown a chunk out of it.
The movie also features lots of French military firearms from that period, if one is a fan of French military firearms. The definitive book on those is Ian McCollum’s “Chassepot to FAMAS” (https://www.headstamppublishing.com/purchase/p/chassepot-3rd-standard?rq=chassepot).
Finally, here’s a video by a guy who recreated the custom rifle using a Savage Rascal in .22 Long Rifle (.22 LR):
https://www.firearmstalk.com/threads/the-day-of-the-jackal-rifle-starring-savage-rascal.147982/