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Open thread 7/12/24 — 41 Comments

  1. Regarding this site’s overarching theme, a changer I find interesting is Tulsi Gabbard. I don’t recall neo doing a deep dive on her, but perhaps I forgot. I’ve listened to quite a few interviews of Ms. Gabbard, starting when she was a committed Democrat through to yesterday. I’ve been fooled by politicians before, but I believe she is the genuine article.

    It’s interesting when she talks about the assumptions the Democrat party made when she first arrived in DC. They gave her plum positions and notoreity due to assumptions they made and her checking some critical DEI boxes, as well as being in the armed forces. Then, how quickly they turned on her when she demonstrated that she was more interested in truth and ethics than power.

    It’s quite an amazing transition. Going from running for President in the Democrat primary in 2020 to serious consideration as a GOP Vice President pick 4 years later.

    She has a book out: For Love of Country: Leave the Democrat Party Behind
    Quite the title, from a former, elected Democrat to the House of Representatives and former vice chair of the Democrat party.

  2. Look at who they replaced her with, an unmemorable drone?

    She left the primary a kabuki exercise and trained with indonesian special forces

  3. I object to so many references to Mozart, without a single actual sample.

    BTW, in Michael Gilbert’s The Country House Burglar/Sky High, he has a female bass singer. And Gilbert was pretty knowledgeable about music.

  4. I’m a big opera buff too, but not so attuned to the sometimes subtle differences in voice types, so this was interesting. Real aficionados get annoyed when singers take roles outside of their “fachs,” but I only notice when it’s really obvious. I wish she’d identified more of the singers, though some of them I knew.

    The fat lady has to be the Wagnerian (high dramatic), of course. She’s right that you don’t want to be too close without earplugs–they are LOUD! And the women are much better at singing over the orchestra than the men. A lot of people don’t realize that they sing without mics in huge venues like the Met. Freaks of nature.

    I was really hoping she’d have the late Jessye Norman as the quintessential huge voice (and she wasn’t even fat), as in this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLshZgI6Iqk

  5. I agree with Rufus….Tulsi is a very interesting person, and I also think she’s sincere and maybe a true changer.

    What think you, Neo??

  6. Re: Tulsi – interesting and impressive? Yes. I’m not so sure that she is a changer, though. I believe that her earliest political work was with her father and was very right of center, especially on social issues.

    My understanding of Tulsi is that she soured on the American right in the wake of the post-9/11 wars, in which she served, and because of that pursued elected office as a Democrat. As those wars ended and faded as live political issues, and as the Democratic party shifted even farther to the left, her fit with the Democratic party lessened.

    So, I’m not sure she ever was a leftist, except in the sense of being skeptical of US involvement in overseas wars, a position that she still holds. Was she ever a sincere economic or social progressive? I’m not sure. But my hunch is that she is not so much a changer as a non-conformist who has never been a neat fit in either party.

    (Addendum – According to Wikipedia – Gabbard won election to the HI House of Representatives in 2002 as a Democrat (i.e., before her military service) – but actively campaigned against gay marriage while in office. So she was a Democrat before the wars, but still not a great fit for the party, especially as it moved left.)

  7. Opera singers are not freaks.
    They have learned to breathe deeply and set up a column of resonance that focuses the voice and allows it to project.

    Stage actors and orators used to learn the same methods.

    Unfortunately not all have mastered the technique so we get woofers, screechers, belters and that steam-whistle/drill sergeant sound that plagues many baritones.

    You may actually like opera when it is sung well. Google “Bel Canto”.

  8. What I meant by “freaks” was not pejorative, just that I think 99% of people, no matter how hard they trained and practiced, would never be able to fill the Met house with anything musical. Just like 99% of people cannot consistently hit a 90 mph slider with a baseball bat no matter how much they train and practice, or run a 10-second 100-meter dash. One has to start with the right physical gifts, not to mention the talent for music. Training is necessary but not sufficient. For every singer who has performed at the top tier there are hundreds who have tried but not made it.

  9. Something is curious because of its absence. I read/hear very little about Trump’s newfound discipline. He’s actually keeping his head down and allowing the Dems to fight their own civil war. Who are his advisors? Can’t be Ivanka and Jared. Could it be that he’s matured or is he just aware that his best chances lie in not pis…g off so much of the voting public? Maybe the latter. The former was just my poor attempt at a joke. The Dems are madder’n Hell that he’s not acting like Trump and giving the corrupt media an excuse to shine the spotlight on him while giving their comrades a break from all the bad pr. Anyway Neo, I’d like to to hear your and/or your reader’s take on this phenomenon. I chose that word carefully and deliberately. LOL

  10. Tulsi is much more of an isolationist than Neo, from what I can tell.

    Reality is, if America doesn’t get spending under control soon, the economic state will be such that the US military will be reduced in size out of necessity.

    I would love to see Tulsi debate VP Kamala. Tulsi would be a champion against the transgenders movement into women’s spaces.

  11. Was she ever a sincere economic or social progressive?

    On domestic policy (other than LGBTQ issues), yes. From this biography:

    https://www.biography.com/political-figure/tulsi-gabbard

    Criminal Justice

    Gabbard called for decriminalizing marijuana and reducing mass incarceration and co-sponsored a variety of legislation to combat these issues. As part of efforts to tackle criminal justice, she said the country would need to address the systemic racism that disproportionately imprisons African American men.

    Healthcare

    Aligned with fellow presidential candidate Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan, Gabbard was a proponent of universal healthcare and for lowering drug costs.

    Climate Change

    Although Gabbard expressed her support for the Green New Deal, she also pointed out that some of its policy proposals needed further clarification.

    In 2015, Gabbard introduced a bill that would ban fracking, end fossil fuel subsidies and require the United States to obtain 100% of its electricity through clean energy sources by 2035.

    I like her, and think she’d be a good VP choice (no policy authority there) or UN ambassador. But I wouldn’t want her to be President unless there was a strong R majority in both houses.

  12. chazzand,

    For at least 8 years author, political commentator and Daily Wire host, Andrew Klavan, has been saying one of Trump’s best talents is his ability to learn and adapt.

    We are 9 years and 1 month past Trump descending the escalator and entering politics. Is there currently a more skilled, retail politician?

  13. Freaks is fine. As in Ja Morant, or Bryce Harper, are freaks. They can do things others can’t and never will, no matter how hard they train. And I second Eeyore on the lack of Mozart samples. That was disappointing. Know I’ve mentioned this before, but I’ve seen the Magic Flute four times now. You may be surprised how rare it is to see the famous Queen of the Night aria sung the way you’ve seen/heard in YouTube videos or in Amadeus. Three of the four times I’ve seen it live it didn’t sound anything like that. Typically very thin, once almost lilting, certainly not powerful. The recordings of it you hear, and whoever that woman in Amadeus was – freaks.

  14. chazzand, in my opinion, Trump is a blowhard but he’s not stupid. He sees that letting the Dems tear each other apart instead of aiming at him is good for his campaign.

    Biden tried to turn the spotlight back on Trump with that press conference, which was really more a campaign appearance, but it didn’t work.

  15. As I understand it, in terms of pure physics, it takes more power to change sound pressure levels at low frequencies than high.

    So it makes sense that female opera singers can sing louder than their male counterparts.

  16. @huxley:So it makes sense that female opera singers can sing louder than their male counterparts.

    Are you familiar with the castrati? They supposedly were able to sing much more powerfully in the soprano register than women singers. There is only one who was ever recorded, long past his prime, so it’s not easy to judge how true that may have been.

  17. Willy OAM, an Australian podcaster following the Ukraine-Russia War included some critical information about the cronyism/corruption of the Ukraine military by a Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuhla. She is either a whistleblower or a traitor, based on who you believe.

    Here’s an example of her criticism of the military. The second link is an example of the thugs running the Ukraine military.

    Mariana Bzulhna criticizes Ukraine Air Force command and calls for resignations.
    https://x.com/BCsickel/status/1809926120176779300/photo/1

    Zaluzhney talks about Mariana Bazulhna in a most unflattering way.
    https://x.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1730144289974337665

  18. This post by Kelly Evans at CNBC.
    How long can we ignore the elephant deficit?

    Will the deficit require the Fed to restart QE?

    We are closing out the fiscal year with a U.S. budget deficit that is running 7.4% of GDP–a record high for a non-emergency year, as we discussed yesterday.

    How much does the deficit need to come down to stabilize debt and avoid a “fiscal doom loop” where higher interest costs result in higher deficits that result in more debt and future higher interest costs? The short answer is: a lot.

    Basically, we need to cut that deficit by around 5 percentage points, according to the Center for American Progress. The current “fiscal gap,” they note, is 2.4% of GDP, meaning if we can stay below that level, we can keep the debt load from continuing to grow.

    So how do we do that? CAP argues through tax increases, to raise government revenues. They believe the Bush and Trump tax cuts together are responsible for continued revenue shortfalls (and historical debt increases) that are resulting in chronic deficits that keep adding to the debt pile. Revenues are currently running just under 17% of GDP, and boosting that by five points, to 22% of GDP, would get us to sustainable deficit levels.

    The trouble is, it’s been very difficult historically to raise revenues that high. The fifty-year average of total government revenues as a percentage of GDP is only 17.7%. The St. Louis Fed even keeps a history of tax receipts specifically as a percent of GDP, which since 1950 have averaged almost exactly 17%. The highest-revenue years in recent decades have been those that followed strong economies and monster market moves; specifically, in 2000 and 2022. The lowest proceeds followed recessions.

    All of that said, trying to raise revenues as much as possible through tax hikes is clearly going to be part of the needed solution. And that’s because it’s equally unfeasible to try and cut government spending by five points points to stabilize the deficit. Of the 24% of GDP the government is spending this year, Social Security is 5 points of that, “other mandatory” is also 5, Medicare is 4, Medicaid and health about 3, defense 3, interest is now 2.5, and that leaves…“non-defense discretionary” at a measly 3.5 (data via Goldman Sachs).

    Clearly, small cuts to all of these categories is the only possible way to bring spending back down to historical levels, of just under 20% of GDP on average–and even that will be a hugely difficult feat. Looking at the experience of other countries that have successfully lowered their deficits, the Tax Foundation says a “rough guideline” should be to aim for “60 percent or more of a plan’s savings coming from spending cuts, and 40 percent or less from revenue increases.”

    Point being, getting us back to something “sustainable” is going to be very, very difficult. Is it impossible? The CBO expects the deficit to be 5.5% or more of GDP for the next decade. Even the expiration of the Trump tax cuts won’t bring it below that level, they note. And interest payments are perhaps the single biggest reason for these chronic shortfalls; although without them, the “primary deficit” is still troublingly high by historical standards, approaching 3.5%.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/kelly-evans-will-the-deficit-require-the-fed-to-restart-qe.html

    Cut spending, raise taxes, increase GDP growth. Trump hit 3% one year. What makes this more remarkable is the Fed was unwinding the trillions of QE paper accumulated the previous decade. Had COVID not been in the works and Trump reelected, his policies might have succeeded in growing the economy– which would be the preferable path.

  19. but the Center for American Progress, always has the wrong answer, thats where Van Jones returned from the Apollo project, where that fellow that wanted to crucify fossil fuels came from,

  20. miguel cervantes, this article came up when I was googling “does QE increase GDP growth” and notice the title of the story, will the FED need to start QE.

    The “experts” are divided whether QE inflates GDP growth or makes the deficit appear smaller. I would say it’s obvious that it does both those things, since it’s just transferring the asset/debt to the FED.

    Getting hung up on the CAP ignores the problem– unless you think the numbers are phony.

  21. Are you familiar with the castrati? They supposedly were able to sing much more powerfully in the soprano register than women singers. There is only one who was ever recorded, long past his prime, so it’s not easy to judge how true that may have been.

    Maybe there will be a MTF trans-of-this-benighted-era detransitioner (so that we can hear the effects of just castration without hormones? Would that work? Or do these unfortunate detrans people have to stay medicalized?) one of these days who will take up opera. One miniscule spark of silver lining in this time when transitioning children is not simply and utterly forbidden.

    My hope, of course, is that this period will be short – like, ending this year, crushed under the weight of all the evidence that it does not improve kids’ mental health outcomes. Because I oppose castrating young boys no matter how much they think they want to be castrated – and it is profoundly to be hoped that the whole world is opposed castrating them against their will.

    On a lighter note, I enjoyed this video very much.

  22. “… it takes more power to change sound pressure levels at low frequencies than high.”

    You lost me, huxley. What does that have to do with decibels of output?

    It’s about pitch and human hearing. A single, triangle, about 4″ on each side can be heard over multiple trombones.

  23. @Jamie:Maybe there will be a MTF trans-of-this-benighted-era detransitioner (so that we can hear the effects of just castration without hormones? Would that work?

    I doubt it. The castrati were castrated before puberty, and also intensely trained in singing while they were growing up. (Quite a few of them lost their voices anyway.) I don’t know how much of what used to be done could be dispensed with and still get the same result. But unless a MTF transitioner was also intensely training for opera while transitioning before puberty and kept it up for ten years, I don’t think you’d get the same kind of result.

    I’m not willing to see any experimentation along these lines no matter what kinds of voices might result.

  24. https://www.widex.com/en-us/blog/global/human-hearing-range-what-can-you-hear/

    For a person with normal hearing, when it comes to pitch the human hearing range starts low at about 20 Hz. That’s about the same as the lowest pedal on a pipe organ. On the other side of the human hearing range, the highest possible frequency heard without discomfort is 20,000Hz. While 20 to 20,000Hz forms the absolute borders of the human hearing range, our hearing is most sensitive in the 2000 – 5000 Hz frequency range.

    https://www.axiomaudio.com/blog/audio-oddities-frequency-ranges-of-male-female-and-childrens-voices/

    The average man’s speaking voice, for example, typically has a fundamental frequency between 85 Hz and 155 Hz. A woman’s speech range is about 165 Hz to 255 Hz, and a child’s voice typically ranges from 250 Hz to 300 Hz and higher. Of course, each of us has a wider range of sounds that our vocal cords can produce, and if we choose to sing, that range can extend up to four octaves. To help you visualize that, a standard piano keyboard has 88 black and white keys, and covers a frequency range from 27.5 Hz to 4186 Hz, over seven musical octaves (“middle C” is at 261 Hz). One octave represents 12 tones, white and black keys included. We hear the frequency of speech or singing as the pitch, and a doubling of the fundamental frequency represents an octave. If you were singing a note at 100 Hz and then sang it at 200 Hz, you’d hear it as “twice as high.” If you sang a note at 180 Hz and then tried for a really low note, at 90 Hz, the latter would be an octave deeper.

    … the entire range of men’s and women’s voices remains between about 65 Hz for a male with a very deep bass voice to the highest note of a female coloratura soprano, just above 1,000 Hz, at 1,280 Hz. (A female high-pitched scream can go quite a bit higher, to around 3,000 Hz.)

    Higher pitched humans sing in a frequency range more inline with the sensitivity of our hearing than lower pitched humans.

  25. Nearly half of Jewish voters believe NY is unsafe for them

    Nearly half of Jewish voters have felt at risk because of their religious identity while living in the Empire State — while more than a third said that New York is no longer a safe haven for their people, a shocking new poll reveals.

    The numbers are unsettling given that 1.5 million Jews live in New York state — more than any single place on the globe outside of Israel, the poll takers said.

    Guess the other Jewish voters never heard of Jonathan Kaye – who had ‘pro-Palestinian supporters who made antisemitic remarks and threw liquids at him. He “was surrounded, shoved to the ground and further attacked”’ and he is the one who got arrested. After court him and his lawyer were harassed and I don’t understand how he avoided killing the whole pack of them.

  26. Periodic reminder:
    The Dems have not abandoned the Jewish vote – it has vanished like the Cheshire cat due to assimilation, leaving behind proud liberal platitudes that have also begun to disperse.

    Most Americans-of-Jewish-descent have become Nones who no longer vote based on Israel or other “Jewish” issues… Or even oppose Israel and Judeo-Christian morality as part of their new “progressive” ideology.

    In response to current antisemitism/antizionism, many will likey drift further away, rather than embrace their Jewish identity. The ratio is anyone’s guess.

    This moots discussions about “the Jewish vote”

    Please Make a Note of It

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