The French election results shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone
And yet I see some headlines indicating the results from Sunday are some sort of surprise. I can’t imagine why, since Macron and the far left had telegraphed in advance quite clearly that they would unite forces, remove weaker candidates, and thus consolidate the opposition to Le Pen’s “far right” party. That’s what happened, and it worked – depending on what the word “worked” means. It seems to me that both in the US and in so many other Western countries the focus is on preventing the demonized populist parties from getting power, and any method will do – including empowering the far left.
In France, the method just might end up paralyzing the government. But hey, they stopped that nationalist, anti-immigrant party, right? So it’s all good:
You’re right, no surprise.
All they’re doing is postponing the fall.
Oh yeah, any bets on the blame will be placed on the Russians.
With this map, why the results?
Sounds like a bit of gerrymandering…
https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1810224414862016820
Would not want to be in Paris for the Olympics about now. I think that the people that voted for “the right” will react. Yellow shirts will be back.
On a side note: I have started watching “Babylon Berlin”. Outstanding!! Berlin in the led up to Hitler. 1929 Berlin, the Communist are a real threat. People forget about the Communist in Germany in the 20’s and early 30’s. Certainly helped Hitler.
The Democrats will try to follow the Macron strategy. “Who cares about the future when our jobs and graft are at stake?”
As Rod Dreyer pointed out, when the Left loses they riot, and when they win they riot. What’s not to like?
Ray, that map reminds me of NY state in every election since I can remember.
Bertolt Brecht:
the East German didn’t try that again for nearly 40 years, the Poles more resilient did give it a try in 1956 and 1970
was stalin playing the long game, the second international, decided to basically proscribe the social democrats as social fascists, so the political space was largely between the communists and the Nazis, the two antidemocratic party, on the theory the nazis would be easier to defeat, that was an expensive gamble on his part,
the rising was a test of Dulles Rollback theory, more the older ones, than the younger, the one in 56, was more well known in Hungary, there is a theory that it was accelerated by the likes of double agent
Anton Turkul, rather than the official Radio Free Europe stations, its a notion bandied about by ex OSI investigator John Loftus, who according to colleagues wasn’t always over the target, it was circumstance or kismet, that the Budapest rising happned in parallel to Suez, where the French and British were distracted in their moves against Nasser,
Ray+SoCa
The map shows you why the Electoral College is a brilliant way of deciding national elections.
The Left are Ringwraiths.
Macron is going to end up being France’s Alexander Kerensky. Kerensky was head of the Russian provisional government in 1917 when Tsar Nicholas II was overthrown. He thought he could ride the tiger, so to speak, but he was ousted by the Bolsheviks only about 6 months later. Macron will prove to be too weak to keep the kook fringe elements of his coalition from taking over I’m afraid.
The normals ain’t voting their way out dystopia.
The Democrats will try to follow the Macron strategy. “Who cares about the future when our jobs and graft are at stake?”
Also known as The LePetomane Gambit (“We’ve got to protect our phony-baloney jobs!”).
No surprise, since the Macron and left parties said they would do what they did. I can’t find the link I saw somewhere. It traced the RN vote in the first round in the past few elections. They started at 10% or so and have steadily increased their proportion to the current 41%. Hold on for the next act. If it doesn’t come electorally, well, France has a history of uprisings.
Say goodbye to France, we might see them go to the Muslims first.
Skip,
Adieu. We say, “adieu” to France
This has been happening in French presidential elections for 20 or 30 years. Le Pen (daughter or father) comes in second in the first round, moves on to the run-off and fails spectacularly (there were also the Sarkozy-Hollande elections in between).
The problem is the same as here or in Britain. The business-oriented conservatives don’t want to do anything about immigration, legal or illegal. There’s also a middle class revulsion against anything labelled “far right,” but it’s the refusal of the conventional right (and center) to do anything about illegal immigration that got any party bringing up the issue labelled “far right.” If previous governments had been willing to deal with the problem, RN wouldn’t have had an opening.
“The normals ain’t voting their way out dystopia.” Chases Eagles
That equally applies to every nation that the left controls.
Ray+SoCa on July 8, 2024 at 12:40 pm said:
With this map, why the results?
Sounds like a bit of gerrymandering…
https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1810224414862016820
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Ray+SoCa and others:
Unfortunately(?), the map posted to X, by Dave Atherton, illustrated the results of the EU elections, rather than the most recent legislative election. I’m not sure whether Atherton knew he was making a misleading post.
I’m not a fan of Wikipedia; but, for this kind of thing, it’s often an easy place to start.
Here’s a link to their description of the 2024 French legislative election:
https://tinyurl.com/4vdayduh
And here’s a link to that article’s map of the election’s second round result by geographic Department:
https://tinyurl.com/8xatk688
Apologies if I’m starting(?) to sound pedantic.
Le Monde’s coloring the districts RN won brown was in really poor taste.
Since this was a legislative election, I don’t see what an analogy to the Electoral College shows. But I also think it shows that neither first-past-the-post nor proportional representation makes that much of a difference. So I’ll stick with the former.
“The normals ain’t voting their way out dystopia.” Chases Eagles
That equally applies to every nation that the left controls.
–Geoffrey Britain
How can you be so certain? I find this reflexive pessimism curious and almost pathological.
The National Rally party went from 89 seats in 2022 to 149 seats in this election. That ‘s a gain of 60 seats or 67%. The NR now has the largest representation of any single party in the French parliament.
Yes, they hoped for more and it’s sad they didn’t get it. The other parties ganged up on NR in the classic, predictable manner.
However, the NR has been growing by leaps and bounds and there will be another election.
A prayer delayed is not a prayer denied.
Vive la France!
huxley on July 8, 2024 at 9:51 pm said:
How can you be so certain? I find this reflexive pessimism curious and almost pathological.
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huxley:
I hesitate to drag myself into personality issues, but a rare bit of insomnia has driven me to respond that I too am reflexively pessimistic. Is this a bad habit, personality defect, or just the inevitable result of political experience?
These days, who can’t marvel at political optimism? Is this quixotic, heroic, or medicated?
Nobody gets medicated into pessimism. What are we to make of that? Is pathology implied? There’s a small part of Texas with especially high levels of lithium in the groundwater. I wonder what these special Texans think of French elections.
David
They ride in black
Huxley
Look around and what do you see? Optimism now is call “Whistling past the graveyard.” Before Biden I was pretty optimist based on what I saw and experienced. Now it’s just a question of when. I don’t even think it’s recoverable.
Skip
Jean Raspail and Enoch Powell are saying “Did we call it or what!”
Yes except respail was more concerned about the north south dynamic rather than the culture of civilizations powell who knew urdu and arabic as well as greek and latin knew the latter
Melenchon who wants to be pm is a jew haiting trotskyite like corbyn who grew up in north africa
Miguel
https://news.sky.com/story/the-left-wing-french-coalition-hoping-to-raise-minimum-wage-and-slap-price-controls-on-petrol-13175395
thats every disastrous policy at once, sacre bleu,
Sa8d it before; stupid votes rarely come back to bite the stupid voter with his own stupid ballot attached. Always somebody else’s fault
Look around and what do you see? Optimism now is call “Whistling past the graveyard.”
Richard F Cook:
Opinions vary.
Pessimism is what I call “Whistling into the graveyard.”
Recall, if you will, that the present crew who run the US were once a splinter group called the New Left in the 1960s. They didn’t get where they are now by explaining how their cause was hopeless.
I hesitate to drag myself into personality issues, but a rare bit of insomnia has driven me to respond that I too am reflexively pessimistic. Is this a bad habit, personality defect, or just the inevitable result of political experience?
Cornflour:
Sorry for making it personal. I hear you.
For me optimism is a choice I made long ago, which I could argue saved my life. But I’m not entirely foolish nor ill-informed; it makes sense as well.
I respect your comments here.