How about the prospects of alternate nominees for the Democrats?
After last night’s Biden debacle, there’s increased chatter about who might replace him if the Democrats can manage to give him the boot.
A great many people think that just about any replacement could beat Trump more easily than Biden could. I’ve long disagreed with that point of view. The reason I don’t think it’s any kind of slam dunk is that, if they’d had a good replacement for Biden, they would have gotten rid of him long before this.
Do you think other Democrats poll better than Biden? See this. Now, granted it’s from mid-February of this year, which is pretty old news. But it’s one of the few polls I could find that shows how Trump would do against leading Democrat contenders, and the answer is “pretty well.” Here are the stats at a time when Trump was leading Biden by only 1 point:
In a hypothetical match-up, Trump leads Vice President Harris 46 percent to 43 percent and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) 46 percent to 36 percent. He also leads Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) 45 percent to 33 percent.
Newsom and Whitmer have increasingly gained national attention as prominent Democrats, and pundits have included them as possible future presidential candidates.
Both of the governors are quite well known, and have vulnerabilities on the national level.
Here’s a poll from March that shows an even greater margin for Trump over Newsom, and in the same poll Trump apparently also led Michelle Obama (I can’t find more details because it’s behind a paywall).
Of course, if any of these people – or some other Democrat – is nominated, I suppose they could start to grow on the American public. But I don’t see any reason to automatically assume that will happen. The Democrats are in disarray at the moment, and although they could regroup, it will take some doing.
Messaging could help a lot. Biden can make a sympathetic* speech, “Thank you for allowing me to serve, but based on some recent test results my physician advises me to not run for re-election, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah.”
Then the Dems use the convention like a really fast primary; nominations, speeches, lots of balloons and confetti. We’d all be on the edge of our seats. It would be hard for Trump and the RNC to take attention away from that.
And it’s likely whomever they pick will be relatively unknown. How many Americans can pick Whitmer out of a line-up? How many Americans know what Gavin Newsome’s record is, or his policy positions? And what if it’s even someone lesser known; Hakeem Jeffries, Jared Polis, Jacob Frey?
We learned from Obama’s first campaign that sometimes a scant record can be an advantage. People can imagine the candidate shares their opinions.
*hard for me to imagine that man (spit!) as sympathetic, but he’s smarmy enough to pull it off
I think Trump should troll them by repeatedly saying he is looking forward to debating Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris.
They can say that Biden is staying or they can explain why Harris, the black female VP ,is not the logical successor.
Conservatives should put out the ” messaging” that we look forward to the Trump – Harris debates !
Let them explain why that is not happening!
Hillary is tanned, rested, and ready. She can spin this as a chance to avenge the “stolen” 2016 election. It neatly solves the Kamala problem. Or at least that is how she sees it.
The odds of crime boss JoJo dying in his sleep just went up.
I doubt they’d go with Hillary Clinton. I think they’ll go with a Democrat politician that hasn’t been in the limelight much, or Michelle Obama (don’t think it’s that likely).
The media would get to define a Democrat however they wish. But both Trump and Hillary Clinton are well known to the public already. Michelle Obama already wears a halo, as far as they are concerned, but they’d have to try to make her look like a President and I don’t know how hard that is.
Like I said before, the ballot harvesters and precinct officials won’t care, they’ll just see to it that Democrat ballots are collected and counted and Republican ballots are not collected and counted. They will have no problem achieving the desired objective. It’s just getting that fig leaf of a fair election in place so enough middle-class people can fool themselves into continuing to follow rules and pay taxes.
The Democrat’s worst day since Appomattox.
It is hinted that Biden will only go away for a certain consideration. Let the haggling begin.
Frey the one that watch minneapolis burn down that guy
How many Americans can pick Whitmer out of a line-up?
Can’t do that. But us unvaxxed, are for the most part, pretty knowledgably about which governors did what during the covidiocy. And Whitmer revealed herself to be an enemy of the Constitution.
I came here to leave a comment that would have said much the same as what Niketas Choniates wrote at 1:45 pm. Now I’d just like to add my agreement.
Anything else? Well, maybe a little wandering rant. I don’t think most people realize the extent to which the Democrats have slowly become revolutionary Marxists. They don’t care about Party rules, the law, or the Constitution. If they want to nominate someone else, they will. If they want to get rid of Kamala Harris, they will. Who is this “they”? They’re the people who’ve been working with Obama on his third term. These are people in the White House, and their allies in the CIA, FBI, and Congress.
What about the law? These people think that belief in the rule of law is for fools and children. They own the law, and lawfare is nothing but the rational extension of politics. The only question for them is whether they will now use extraordinary means to retain the Presidency, or whether they will decide to risk losing this election, but focus their energies elsewhere, and then look forward to the next cycle of presidential politics.
What’s an example of extraordinary means? The next obvious step would be for Biden’s DOJ to charge Trump with a Federal crime, give him a quick trial in DC, then have the FBI escort him to prison. This would make it physically impossible for Trump to enter the White House. Illegal? Supreme Court objects? How long would that take? Doesn’t matter anyway, because the next Biden/????/Obama administration would just ignore any ruling they didn’t like.
So what will they decide, risk the presdency or use extraordinary means? I have no idea.
This a very dangerous moment internally for the Dems. By rights and Dem dogma, Kamala is the rightful successor to Biden. What are the black women going to do if she is tossed overboard? If they just sit it out that would doom the Dem candidate.
Mark Steyn: “Is the Democrat-Deep State-Big Tech complex willing to permit a free and fair election that Trump could win? The answer to that remains: No.”
I agree. The Dems will “win” the upcoming election. *scare quotes intentional*
Cornflour, “ The next obvious step would be for Biden’s DOJ to charge Trump with a Federal crime, give him a quick trial in DC, then have the FBI escort him to prison.”. That would be a genuinely revolutionary moment and a 2A event. I would expect a million men to show up to get Trump free and go after the FBI and any other agency that tries to keep Trump in prison. The judge that jailed him might rethink his decision very quickly. DC might be onboard but a whole lot of the rest of the USA wouldn’t be and just sit passively and take it.
Let’s hope the Dems aren’t that stupid.
Yeah i dont think well fall for that banana in the tail pipe trick again
May you live in interesting times. This is only the beginning to what will undoubtedly be the most insane election year ever, beating even 1968, 2000, 2016 and 2020.
@Paul in Boston:What are the black women going to do if she is tossed overboard?
Vote anyway, to the extent they already do. They are on the “plantation” and they are not voting any other way. They are not going to want Trump, and these are disproportionately the demographic that ballot harvesters and election officials in deep-blue precincts are drawn from anyway. The Dems fall into line every time. That’s how they got Biden, they made everyone else quit, including Harris.
The great god Barry has spoken, y’all: https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017?t=aiGwRY9K6r4QIO_3Lpu-1Q&s=19
Quiet down now! Everyone go back to your lanes.
Name and image recognition matters. I’d wager that 1/4th of those casting votes in November couldn’t pick Kamala Harris out of a line up. I know that sounds bold but I’m sticking to it. Meanwhile Donald Trump is probably the most famous person in the world.
Joe was in NC today saying he’s going to win that state.
Joe and Jill are driving up the bribe price for Joe to drop out. The bidders are Harris and Clinton. The opening bid is $10m and it will be paid to Jill’s account in bitcoin.
We know the Bidens take bribes. Now we are just haggling on the price.
Harris and Mayor Pete can threaten the 25th Amendment, but that’s too messy.
I’m absolutely positive this is going on right now and the negotiations have been going on for some time. The debate performance was to show the world that Joe’s dropping out is justified and it wasn’t pure bribery from the beginning.
It’s all about the bribe.
So that’s the line, sdferr. It was just a bad night. The problem is that the candidate who lies through his teeth for his own benefit is Biden, not Trump.
There are cargo cults. And then there’s American party politics.
See, (for starters):
https://revolver.news/2024/06/dems-biden-replacement-issue/
From sdferr‘s post – This was the moment the debate ended.
I’m no Trump admirer, but his double-take response to that was absolutely epic. He really is a pretty good showman.
And for what it’s worth, I’m at a bar – should I be concerned with how many of my posts begin that way? Anyway, everyone here speaks more Spanish than English, and they’re all making fun of Biden.
The Obamas admit they are too lazy and M. hates politics.
Why give up the good life and all the bribe money they’ve been paid?
I still wonder if Michelle isn’t going to be the Savior of the Democrats, maybe at gje convention. According to a American Thinker article the other day that the Democrats are stuck with Sundowner. But that won’t stop them if they want to change candidate
If they decide to pull the plug on Joe the process to replace him will be extremely messy, which is why they haven’t done it earlier when it would have been much easier. Jill and Joe don’t want to go and will have to be forced out. Kamala is still a roadblock and getting rid of her will fracture the party.
If Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer decide that Joe must go, they can get it done but there will be a huge power struggle and whoever gets the nomination will have almost no chance of beating Trump. There is just no easy way out of the mess they have created.
Gregory Harper:
The Bidens want to be paid – in bitcoin – before Joe will drop out.
It’s all about the bitcoin.
A candidate replacing Joe doesn’t have to be able to beat Trump to be a better choice for Democrats.
Joe Dementia could have a reverse-coat-tails effect and drag down many candidates down-ticket.
Also, the sooner they move on from Joe, the sooner they can start to rebuild the party. Not that I believe the Dems will be making calm rational assessments.
I suspect it will be more like the Kremlin when the the leader is weak and failing. There will be factions fighting for power behind the scenes. I’m sure this is already happening.
Trump supporters often claim he plays 3D chess, but Biden is clearly the worst Presidential candidate in recent memory, and Trump should be trying to drag Biden over the November finish line.
If Trump were really playing 3D chess, he would have done everything he could to make Biden look good — e.g. “Yes Mr. President, there really are a thousand trillionaires, and we should take all of their money and give it to homeless drug addicts. Consequently, the Chinese Communist Party will get rich off their sales of fentanyl precursors, and that will be a big help to your family business. I love you Joe, you’re clever as a fox”
Instead, without Trump’s help, Biden looked like he couldn’t string two thoughts together, so the Democrats are desperate for a new strategy, and we have a Marxist party acting like a cornered beast.
Dangerous times.
Barely sarcasm.
I doubt Mooch because right now as private citizens (and power behind the throne) they have a great deal more privacy. Much less legal scrutiny of who they meet with and so on.
I agree with every word of Obama’s tweet, he just misspelled Trump’s website.
Yes they flacked this turkey keep him
plucked
Dnc rules say he can be replaced by death dusability or illness after the convention
I’d say the Michelle window has closed. In the past I thought it possible, but only if she could electrify the country and win 2024 in an easy lay-up. Coulda been if Biden had stepped down gracefully.
But the Biden cabal wouldn’t budge and the Dems let the Biden debacle go on too long. The Party has lost much credibility for that, the economy and its woke excesses. There is no easy lay-up for their side this year.
No way would Michelle walk into the 2024 meat grinder.
In any case, Mooch is completely unqualified, with no relevant experience, and no understanding of policy, foreign or domestic. It would transparently just be giving Barry a third term, which is why I favor an amendment to the 22nd Amendment that would bar spouses of two-term presidents from running for office. It’s just more banana republic (or Alabama) shenanigans.
No unknown is going to be able to get a campaign together and become familiar to the electorate between now and November. If Harris can change her registration to DC, she could run with Newsom. I don’t think she’d be too keen on being his second banana, though. I don’t see Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama being nominated. If Bill or Barack were still eligible, one of them would be.
Very little commentary about Trump’s performance last night. That’s surprising ! Because I thought it was pretty poor, given the opportunities that were served up to him. All he had to do was provide succinct good answers to the questions – which he almost never did. Then he could’ve used his remaining time to counterpoint how Biden’s administration has failed spectacularly on those issues.
But he couldn’t do it, or he chose not to. And the level of the debate was atrocious from an intellectual perspective. All the problems this country faces, and we have these two schleppers talking about their golf handicap. And insulting each other, ‘the worst ever’ and so on – playground taunts from octogenarians. It was a disgraceful performance on both their parts. And Trump had a golden opportunity to set himself up for a landslide, in my opinion.
The dems smashed the country with a two by four can it be mended or have they done irreperable damage to our energy grid to our military to our judicial system the jury is out
When one considers what they have done only here but the blood price in kiev kabul and other places
I would strain to hold a civil tongue under this barrage of lies and omissions
Aggie – It was vintage Trump. All bluster and not particularly well-informed or educated about the issues. But he fights!
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Yes, Trump’s no great debater. Still he was good enough. I also would have wished that he answered questions more straightforwardly when they were asked, but he had reason to be wary of the moderators and not serve up what they wanted to hear from him. Also, there’s a time lag in these debates. There are so many things the other side has already said that one feels one has to reply to before getting to the question the moderators asked.
I could also have used fewer insults. My impression, though, was that Trump was sparing with the insults until Biden went after him with both barrels. Biden obviously despised Trump and got in his share of insults. I’d have to check the transcript to be sure, but my impression was that Biden started earlier and got in more put downs than Trump did.
Yes Trump isn’t a polished politician, but he won the debate. After this year he probably won’t be in any more presidential debates and then, for better or worse, things will be back to usual.
What shouldnt he have called out like officer involved in afghanistan the border debacle the chaos in the cities
They are burning the country down and youre debating the size of the wick
Fox News – ‘The Five’ reacts to Biden’s disaster facing off with Trump – Video
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2024/06/fox-news-five-reacts-to-bidens-disaster.html
Yes, Trump’s no great debater.
— Abraxas
And he has never been a great debater. It’s a little late to wish he was. But Trump has other strengths.
Yes, he was good enough. I was pleased to see Trump show more self-control than usual and let Biden hang himself.
I still think Trump’s nonverbal reactions on camera were hilarious and intentional.
I say this debate changed history. It will be studied in books, as an iconic episode of our crazy age.
I just wish Tom Wolfe were alive to write about it.
Robert Kennedy will be the next president if the Democrats have any sense. And because the American voters are silly.
I too wish Trump were a policy wonk, but he’s not. We had the best economy ever seems too generic, and of course, the left called that a lie– but since Trump didn’t state the metric he was using, it can’t be judged either true or not.
As to much of the lawfare, no doubt Trump couldn’t say anything– without running afoul of the current gag order or be used against him in trials that may still occur at some point.
I’m fine with that, since it will be the quality of his administration advisors/heads that determine much of his success. He does have good instincts– proven by the Abraham accords and the trade deals with Mexico and Canada and China.
His threatening use of tariffs is once again mostly a negotiating tactic– much like his threats to free-riding NATO countries.
It would be interesting to have a conservative/unbiased fact checking of both Biden and Trump. My money is on Biden being the biggest liar. I think he’s the biggest lying president ever!
@ huxley > “Also, the sooner they move on from Joe, the sooner they can start to rebuild the party.”
May no longer be feasible.
See the Revolver post linked by sdferr, which quotes Darren Beattie here:
https://x.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1806680974534553677
The first post also quotes extensively from this other Revolver article by Beattie, which is very prescient about the challenges now facing the Democrats:
https://revolver.news/2024/03/the-left-has-to-replace-biden-but-can-they/
Normally, I would say “Take Polis, Please”. He is term limited out in a yr or two (not sure which), but he is smooth, not smarmy like Newsum. I would say if not this yr then in 4 yrs. He has done great damage to CO.
“I just wish Tom Wolfe were alive to write about it.” – huxley
Just so. He was a master of understanding and describing complex human dramas.
Where are the writers who can describe the two Trump trials in New York City and turn it into a riveting tale like “The Bonfires of the Vanities?” Or covering this campaign and telling it as compellingly as “The Right Stuff?”
He was a great writer, and we need another, or a dozen like him now.
}}} A great many people think that just about any replacement could beat Trump more easily than Biden could. I’ve long disagreed with that point of view.
I do believe this has been viable most of the times you’ve said it. I’m strongly suspecting that it is no longer true. I think even most of the Left believes this, now.
I think even the yellow doggers will have a hard time following their natural bent. I think they will still follow through, but this is because they are, were, and have always been, total imbeciles.
}}} Oh yeah and one other thing. There is a severe intergenerational rift in the Dem party exacerbated by the Israel Palestine conflict. I know most right wing media thinks of Biden as some Hamas agent, but the left base thinks of him as obsequious to Israel and have had intense protests to that effect.
Well, I suspect that intergenerational rift is overblown — many of the so-called “supporters” are a small collection of highly obnoxious people in Gen-Z, but they are very much a minority — a very loud and obnoxious minority, but still a total minority. The Dems are, of course, particularly vulnerable to such obnoxious minorities.
}}} It is hinted that Biden will only go away for a certain consideration. Let the haggling begin.
I suggest he replace Kagan on the SCotUS. 😛
In the Biden substitution sweepstakes, I gotta say I think Hillary is most likely. Best next name recognition and simpler to accomplish, given her ties to various Zero retreads.
J.J. comments huxley’s thoughtful quip, “I just wish Tom Wolfe were alive to write about it.” – huxley
“Just so. He was a master of understanding and describing complex human dramas,” replies J.J.
Who then goes on to ask, where are such writers today? One is Lionel Shriver, I think.
Her most recent of 17 novels is “Mania” from last year. It is a funny and occasionally offensive satire of groupthink, wholly applicable to today’s sacred SWJ cows.
J.J. Calls for more, much more like Tom Wolfe. I second the wish, but I know it’s wishful thinking.
The young don’t read much today. And along with killing off Rom-coms, patriotism, love songs, humor, and the art of whistling, the novel, too, is dead among them.
Enjoy the decline.
Unless Joe (Jill) agrees to step aside I don’t see how the Democrats replace him. There is no other potential candidate that polls as well against DJT. Even if Joe steps down, what is the process for getting a replacement on the ballot in the States where the filing deadline has passed? Or is that not an issue?
With both Barack Obama and now Bill Clinton weighing to say, essentially, the party just needs to carry on as things are, it seems unlikely that pushing Biden out and electing someone else will happen. The time to face reality, for Democrats, was last year. It’s probably too late now.
With both Barack Obama and now Bill Clinton weighing to say, essentially, the party just needs to carry on as things are,
==
So, the strategy is to ramp up the vote fraud.
they are trying to finish off this country, although as yoda would say, there is no try,
Robert Kennedy jr, has his strong suits, but his climate alarmism, what I call skydragon worship, is problematic, his preference for samizdat thinking, which the Court could have read more of this term,
I would do least to acknowledge this hollow shell, that the Dems put up as the front for their crimes against the body politic,
“So, the strategy is to ramp up the vote fraud.” Probably; it’s all they’ve got left. Whether enough fraud can be produced is the question.
They’re all in on Biden. If they weren’t they wouldn’t have given him a pass on all those classified docs he’s been absconding with and lugging around for decades. If the Trump lawfare fails to take him out or if he survives a tidal wave of ballot harvesting they completely control the entrenched bureaucracy that is already organizing their potential resistance, obstruction, investigation, impeachment, prosecution. It reminds me of the 60’s classic:
“There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly, and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: There is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to . . . The Outer Limits.”
Dailymail reporting this morning that Obama meeting with the Bidens (yes, Jill included) today for a, pardon the expression, “come to Jesus” moment.
Megyn Kelly had a couple of great interviews with Bannon yesterday which can be seen on her youtube channel. He said, Biden will be replaced, and he thinks it will Michelle. His main point is that the GOP and Trump make the switch as painful as possible pointing out what they are doing very publicly as possible.
The vote fraud effort will have to be large enough to counteract the loss of enthusiasm among live Democrat voters. They now know that they’d be voting for a man who isn’t really there much of the time.
physicsguy, I just looked at the Daily Mail and found an article about big donors talking about getting Obama to meet with Joe about this, or how to find someone to talk to Jill. There doesn’t seem to be anything specific happening, just a lot of flailing around trying to fix the mess somehow.
As Obama said: “If I could make an arrangement where I had a frontman and they had an earpiece in…and I was just in my basement…then I could deliver the lines…I’d be fine with that”
I suspect any meetings between the Obamas and the Bidens would be more about doing things the way we tell you than about time for you to go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BdGLrb-HTY
Michelle Lives!
Maybe.
She is still the best choice in terms of recognition and favorability. But this will be a hard, mean election with the very real possibility that the Obamas will lose and to Trump of all people. It ain’t 2008 or even 2020.
I don’t believe vote fraud is the magic wand that some think. There are limits.
Furthermore, now that Biden has been thoroughly exposed as the doddering fraud he has been all along, I predict there will be a real angry backlash from voters against the Democrat Party, the media and the whole apparatus which propped the fool up with lies and endangered America.
Trump better have food tasters and not just Secret Service protection.
Modified Limited Hangout. That’s what I believe we saw at the CNN joint press appearance advertised as a debate. We’ve now seen Biden at his worst. If he plays ball the powers that be will take control of the campaign narrative and drag him through the election. Failing that their control of the levers of power in DC is stronger than it was when they contained and harassed Trump the first time. After the democrats have told us time and again crisis equals opportunity. This is an opportunity for the powers that be to tighten their grip on power before Joe causes them to lose it.
If [Biden] plays ball the powers that be will take control of the campaign narrative and drag him through the election.
crasey:
I really don’t think so. What was seen at the debate cannot be unseen. Even the NY Times is calling for Biden to step down:
https://nypost.com/2024/06/28/us-news/ny-times-calls-on-biden-to-drop-out-of-2024-presidential-race-to-serve-his-country/
The Powers That Be are powerful, but not all-powerful.
I pray you’re right.