You know, with all of the major problems in the world today I try not to get too worked up over first-world problems, but why are so many businesses openly hostile to their customers? I just don’t get it. It didn’t used to be this way.
@mkent:why are so many businesses openly hostile to their customers?
Significant revenue streams not dependent on sales to those customers.
Although to be fair in more recent years there has been some costs to businesses whose leadership hold their customer bases openly in contempt. Many have in fact, lost money. For example, Disney has lost billions in recent years by primarily producing content that lectures its customers rather than entertaining them. But Disney had so much money to lose that they could afford it for a while. However at some point there is a breaking point. At some point investors become less willing to set huge piles of money on fire. It’s just a question of when.
Damn it neo. That video was fascinating. I watched the whole long thing.
______
I agree with mkent, and it’s an interesting question. My partial answer, and it may a smaller piece of the answer, is that the consumers have changed. It seems to me that as the millennials and gen Z have matured, they don’t care as much about frugality, being selective, or doing a bit of consumer research. The upshot is that businesses can get away with treating their customers like serfs.
Along with TommyJay, that’s one of the best science lectures I’ve seen in a long time…I was mesmerized. Not being a biologist, I really enjoyed learning where the truly basic question of the field is going. I do have one quibble with Mr. Ball at the end: he quotes the physicist, Michael Barry who rightly said the real question is why the chemistry of life produces life. Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation, but his entire presentation just continually, to me, brings up the notion of the need to bring QM more into biology. He produces very convincing evidence of the “fuzziness” and randomness that is necessary for the mechanism of life….that just screams quantum. He talks of the need for a brain as a higher order gene control of the individual. Yet, the idea of consciousness, ( and I think he’s on the right track with the idea of “agency”) seems to require QM at some point.
Oh well, just the ramblings of a retired physicist, who when I raised such questions with the biologists I knew, would scoff at me and basically tell me to stay in my own lane.
Hunter Biden was found guilty on three felony charges for illegally buying and possessing a gun while addicted to crack cocaine. Federal law expressly makes it illegal for individuals using illicit drugs to possess firearms. He could face 25 years in prison and fines for the conviction.
The quickness of the jury’s return had most experts predicting a guilty verdict.
Interesting. And Papa Joe has said he wouldn’t pardon his son.
I’m sure he misspoke.
On Hunter conviction: now all the Ds can say how “wonderfully” fair and even handed they are now that the Prez’s son has also been convicted, and how much the “rule of law” is upheld. Gag!
Unlike the farce of a trial with Trump, in the Hunter Biden case you can point to a specific and demonstrably real crime that was committed rather than a choose your own adventure, inferred crime that may or may not have actually occurred.
Sentencing guidelines for the gun charges are 15 to 21 months, but legal experts say defendants in similar cases often get shorter sentences and are less likely to be incarcerated if they abide by the terms of their pretrial release.
As a first time offender, it’s unlikely that he will face jail time…
This does seem like a set up to go easy on the tax case, which might be more consequential since it involves the big guy. I can’t find much information about the tax case outside the left-wing media. Does it use the testimony of the IRS whistleblowers? And the WhatsApp messages about Hunter having the big guy in the room with him with a Chinese “business man.”
for this case, I suspect something along the lines of 5 years, suspended, contingent upon staying out of future trouble (tax case is past trouble) and remaining sober, fine, and community service. Which I’m fine with as it wasn’t related to other crimes, such as selling drugs, armed robbery, etc.
I have heard some legal pontificators suggest there might be harsher penalties solely because Hunter took this to a jury trial rather than take a plea deal. I hate that. Yes, there is added expense and time, but the Sixth Amendment guarantees Americans the right to a jury trial. There should not be added punishment for exercising a constitutional right.
Tonight would be start of Shavuot, or “Pentecost” on the Jewish calendar. (For Christians the Time of Acts chapter 2 ) Last of the Spring Levitical Festivals.
Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation,… — physicsguy
Yes. I instantly thought, “Why not QM?” I have no feeling that it would be a whole answer, but it could easily be an important element.
I haven’t checked out Mr. Ball’s background, except that Youtube says he was an editor of Nature for a long time. I know I sort of have a bias against ideas like “dark matter” based on close to zero knowledge. I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
One of the cool things about solid state physics theory is, how essential QM is to much of it. Our modern world with all the chips and now even our light bulbs depend on it.
I suppose it’s possible that Joe Biden will just commute Hunter’s sentence after the election rather than outright pardoning him, then he can say he didn’t precisely lie when he said he wouldn’t pardon Hunter last week if he were to be convicted. But if Biden loses the election, he may as well just pardon him (and all Biden crime family members) since he wouldn’t have a reason to not go back on his “word” at that point being that there would be no real consequences to him doing so then.
@TommyJay:I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
In biological systems you have high temperatures compared to the available differences in energy states, and you have very complex systems of atoms and molecules. I wouldn’t say that ruled out quantum behavior having much effect on biological systems, but I think it does make sense that it’s not the first kind of solution sought for in explaining a biological system.
There is a lot of physics in biology, for example why are there tiny cells and not giant one-celled animals? In something the size of a cell, at temperatures comfortable for Earth life, atoms and molecules can visit all parts of the cell by diffusion many times in a second and there’s not as much need for “machinery” to transport them from here to there as there would be in a one-celled organism the size of say a cat.
for example why are there tiny cells and not giant one-celled animals? In something the size of a cell, at temperatures comfortable for Earth life, atoms and molecules can visit all parts of the cell by diffusion many times in a second and there’s not as much need for “machinery” to transport them from here to there as there would be in a one-celled organism the size of say a cat.
@Nonapod: Yeah there’s a few. That one works because it’s got multiple nuclei and the cell itself is really the thin membrane enclosing a huge bubble.
Life is just such a remarkable thing it cant be random have we found it any where else and cognition is an even higher order circumstance
The video of Pelosi admitting responsibility for not having the National Guard or capital police prepared for the J6 demonstration is going viral on conservative media. Except for politico, the left media are ignoring it. Politico uses their article to try to debunk it. See this discussion by Jonathan Turley.
“The video was disclosed in a posting on X by a House Republican panel. The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:
“We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous. You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard? Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?…They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”
The video was never released by the J6 Committee, which was criticized for its highly choreographed and scripted hearings with little balance in the presentation of evidence. The lack of emphasis on the security issues was glaring and raised by critics throughout the hearings.
Just another open-thread comment about something I read.
A few days ago, “RealClear Science” published a summary of a large, recent survey of psychology professors (https://tinyurl.com/4neemue9).
The survey was designed to identify and describe the ten most taboo subjects dividing psychologists.
It’s also noteworthy that only 56.5% of the professors said that scientists should prioritize truth, if truth conflicts with social equity goals. Percentages for younger professors and women are higher, so Psychology’s rejection of the truth will ony get worse. Unsurprisingly, here we have more depressing evidence that the soft sciences have been taken over by left-wing political activists.
Anyway, here are the top ten taboos:
1. The tendency to engage in sexually coercive behavior likely evolved because it conferred some evolutionary advantages on men who engaged in such behavior.
2. Gender biases are not the most important drivers of the under-representation of women in STEM fields.
3. Academia discriminates against Black people (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).
4. Biological sex is binary for the vast majority of people.
5. The social sciences (in the United States) discriminate against conservatives (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).
6. Racial biases are not the most important drivers of higher crime rates among Black Americans relative to White Americans.
7. Men and women have different psychological characteristics because of evolution.
8. Genetic differences explain non-trivial (10% or more) variance in race differences in intelligence test scores.
9. Transgender identity is sometimes the product of social influence.
10. Demographic diversity (race, gender) in the workplace often leads to worse performance.
All those hard stares from the Brandon family (as in lifestock herding dogs) were not sufficient to direct the jury? The Delaware effect fails?
Anyway, here are the top ten taboos:
==
The article says taboo conclusions, not taboo subjects.
Your thermodynamic argument does not negate the need for QM. You make a macroscopic entropy argument when the processes Ball describes are at the molecular level. Just because mRNA, proteins etc are large molecules doesn’t negate the fact that their interactions and bonding are governed directly by QM.
Hunter Biden, the president’s son, was convicted on Tuesday of three felonies: lying to a federally licensed gun dealer, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in jail; making a false claim on the federal firearms application used to screen applicants, with a sentence of up to five years; and possession of an illegally obtained gun from Oct. 12-23, 2018, which carries a maximum punishment of 10 years
Aren’t these just three variations of the same crime? Shouldn’t conservatives be speaking out about the misuse of charging defendants with multiple variations of the same crime to induce a guilty plea?
An even more egregious example, of course, is 34 felony counts for writing multiple checks. Had Trump’s organization paid Cohen in one check, wouldn’t there have only been one count?
I know this is just a ploy to avoid jury trials and it works. In my son’s case he was charged with two felonies– both with four year sentences to be served consecutively. If he pled guilty one of the charges would be dropped. I told him to plead guilty– since he had shot the guy. But a smart lawyer might have been able to make the case it was self-defense. To mount that defense would have cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $50,000– to get a competent lawyer, with no guarantees it would have succeeded.
Conclusion 3 is madcap; no one subscribes to it honestly. Conclusion 4 is blatantly obvious; only liars would dissent from it. Dissent from conclusion 6 is an indicator of mendacity or pig ignorance. Ditto dissent from conclusion 9.
==
My hypothesis about the descriptive statistics on giving priority to truth is that a great many of the respondents are giving a pro forma answer. There are people of integrity in academe, but they’re not in gatekeeper positions; faculty members will devote their ingenuity to manufacturing specious arguments to get what they want.
@TommyJay:I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
Aren’t these just three variations of the same crime? Shouldn’t conservatives be speaking out about the misuse of charging defendants with multiple variations of the same crime to induce a guilty plea?
==
The second charge is redundant, not the third.
An even more egregious example, of course, is 34 felony counts for writing multiple checks. Had Trump’s organization paid Cohen in one check, wouldn’t there have only been one count?
==
No, that’s qualitatively different and should never have been permitted.
Um why would having relations with yout patients give you an evolutionary advantage
@physicsguy:Your thermodynamic argument does not negate the need for QM.
You are correct and that’s why I never claimed it did.
Just because mRNA, proteins etc are large molecules doesn’t negate the fact that their interactions and bonding are governed directly by QM.
You are correct, which is why I didn’t dispute that, and I can’t imagine Ball would dispute that.
All was I getting at is why QM is not the first place biologists tend to look when they’re trying to explain something. I don’t think it’s simply closed-mindedness as TommyJay suggested.
Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation, but his entire presentation just continually, to me, brings up the notion of the need to bring QM more into biology. He produces very convincing evidence of the “fuzziness” and randomness that is necessary for the mechanism of life….that just screams quantum. He talks of the need for a brain as a higher order gene control of the individual. Yet, the idea of consciousness, ( and I think he’s on the right track with the idea of “agency”) seems to require QM at some point.
physicsguy:
A month ago Sabine Hossenfelder posted this intriguing video:
_______________________________________
This is news that I certainly didn’t see coming. Do you remember Roger Penrose’s idea that the human brain uses quantum effects in microtubules, and that those are origin of consciousness. Yeah, that sounds pretty crazy. But well, it seems that he was right. At least about the microtubules.
I enjoy maverick science but even I was eye-rolling on Penrose’s speculation that consciousness might be explained by quantum effects in microtubules.
We still don’t have a full explanation, but apparently it is true QM is involved with microtubules.
Today, Pres. Biden said: “now is the time, to talk about gun safety, + crime with guns”.
No.
NOW is the time for you to TRY TO DISTRACT PEOPLE, from bad news ABOUT YOU + YOUR SON HUNTER, because HUNTER HAS BEEN FOUND GUILTY OF BREAKING EVERY, “BEEPING” GUN LAW IN THE COUNTRY!
THAT’S what you have to do today.
(OK, so I exaggerated a little in my comment.
But Joe Biden, in my view, [has lied + cheated, in every way that he can, to try to get himself- elected president, + to try to get re-elected president. Since Pres. Joe Biden did these things, I don’t care, today.)
I wonder if Hunter Biden will get 1-20 years in jail, for breaking gun laws. I guess the American people will see.
How does academia discriminate against black people?
Art Deco, he could have only illegally possessed the firearm by lying on the form, which means he lied to the dealer, so while a different crime only occurred by committing the first two.
It doesn’t change my point that prosecutors do this to induce a guilty plea.
If justice better served by charging all three crimes? Is society better off, having Hunter in jail for 25 years, rather than 5 years?
}}} Along with TommyJay, that’s one of the best science lectures I’ve seen in a long time…
You may find this of interest, too — this one is much shorter, and “less deep”, but fun, and will likely get you interested in Richard Feynmann, and why he was that unusual combo of both a great scientist but also a very effective lecturer…
Miguel: I have been using that video, for about 10+ years, especially the part about “Vague Theories”, ca. 5:00, for exactly that purpose.
😀
Particularly the notion of the change from AGW to “Climate Change”.
Re: Feynman
There were giants in those days.
They weren’t all named Einstein.
I mean how does it even qualify as a hypothesis, much less a theory,
feynman does have a very engaging style, that I only experienced through his books,
OBH, as a physicist I don’t need to have my interest piqued regarding Feynman…if fact I don’t know any physicist who would not regard him in high esteem. That video is a classic that is used and quoted by myself for decades.
Per Tucker, the FBI has become a version of Papa Doc’s Tonton Macoute.
Perhaps more focused and subtle (à la Baby Doc’s Macoute), but not by much.
Lovely
How does the theory become the organizing principle of the world
@miguel:How does the theory become the organizing principle of the world
Feynman compared it to trying to discover the rules of chess but all you can do is watch people play. You’d probably be pretty confused the first time you saw castling or pawn promotion. And you’d never know if you’d figured out what ALL the rules are, and you’d never know even if you got exactly the right rules to cover every situation you’d seen (since there are an infinite number of possible rules that could cover them).
However, you would be able to tell if you’d gotten a rule wrong by seeing a move that your rules don’t allow for.
Once you have a collection of rules that seem to be the right ones you can start figuring out which are of most importance and what the game might look like if played under different rules.
There are actually some alternative physics theories already developed just waiting for the right kind of evidence. For example, Maxwell’s equations for electricity and magnetism have already been rewritten to accommodate magnetic monopoles if ever they are unambiguously detected. There’s some motivation from quantum mechanics for wanting monopoles to be there.
After my retirement I started relearning calculus with an eye to working through the Feynman Lectures, an item on my bucket list.
I might still get to it. Though French and AI are now in the way.
Assume there has been marked temperature increases (debatsble) marked co 2 probably correlation nil, correlation to human activity even less
“I do have one quibble with Mr. Ball at the end: he quotes the physicist, Michael Barry who rightly said the real question is why the chemistry of life produces life.” physicsguy
However valuable, Science is incapable of answering the ‘why’ of things. That is the most fundamental of questions, evidenced by the eternal protest of every child… Why?
Open Thread Russian War on Ukraine:
Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine – Anders Puck Nielsen
0:00 Growing Ukraine optimism
1:30 Ukraine’s vision of victory
2:24 Biden’s goal of escalation management
4:21 Escalation from Russian victory
5:10 Red line escalation
6:45 Escalation from Russian collapse
8:15 Balancing escalation potential
11:05 Peace negotiations
12:29 Problems with Biden’s approach
Listening to today’s The Telegraph “Ukraine The Latest” podcast it appears that President Trump, Speaker Johnson, and UK government officials have already been working on Ukrainian issues (such as release of aid package by the House). Unlike the Brandon junta Ukraine may benefit from someone competent who can be persuaded by facts. The FJB junta isn’t really doing much more than the minimum for Ukraine IMO.
The Telegraph appears to be clueless about the FJB junta and somewhat afflicted by OMB, not rabid TDS but a few (i.e., Francis Dearnedly) have the Media blinders. He seems not to have any military background, an academic?
But on to domestic stuff. Leftists are worried that if the FJB junta falls The Great Orange Whale will unleash the plans they had for those guilty of wrongthink on them.
Maddow Meltdown: Liberal Host Goes on Narcissistic Rant, Worries Trump Would Send Her to Internment Camp
In my view, the physical world that [science] studies, aka the physical world that does not obey- the desires of humans or the [human-reason] of humans,…doesn’t have a [reason] for doing anything.
The physical world, that scientists study, just exists.
Feynman compared it to trying to discover the rules of chess but all you can do is watch people play.
–Niketas Choniates
Actually that’s basically how today’s AIs work. They train on human games. Then they start playing themselves. Then they beat the best humans.
Game, set, match.
We are creating the next intelligent life.
May it be kind to us.
Today I asked ChatGPT 4o:
______________________________________
How did you “learn” there were nouns in French and they have gender?
Language models like me “learn” about grammatical concepts like nouns and their gender through the patterns present in the training data. Here’s how it works:
Pattern Recognition: During training, the model is exposed to vast amounts of text where it sees words used in context repeatedly. For example, it sees “le livre” (the book) and “la table” (the table) many times.
Associations: The model learns to associate certain words with their articles (“le” or “la”) and begins to understand that nouns often have gender markers.
Contextual Learning: By seeing how words are used in sentences, the model learns the rules and patterns of grammar, including gender agreement with adjectives and articles.
Statistical Learning: The model doesn’t explicitly know grammar rules but recognizes statistical regularities, such as “chat” (cat) being preceded by “le” (masculine article) and “maison” (house) by “la” (feminine article).
Through extensive exposure to text, the model picks up these patterns and applies them when generating or understanding new text.
______________________________________
By “vast” and “extensive” Chat means billions, trillions etc. It’s amazing what the AIs do, but it don’t come easy or cheap.
One last Chat exchange:
_______________________________________________
I don’t mean to make a big thing of it, but Chat, you spook me.
I understand that the capabilities of AI can sometimes be surprising or even unsettling. It’s important to remember that while I can provide information and assist with various tasks, I’m just a tool designed to help users with their inquiries and learning. If there’s anything specific on your mind or anything you’d like to discuss further, feel free to let me know!
Yes. That’s what I would expect you to say. 🙂
I appreciate your understanding! If you have any questions or if there’s something specific you’d like to talk about or explore, I’m here to help.
_______________________________________________
Well, that’s a relief. My emoji’d irony sailed right over Chat’s head.
Chat often picks up nuances — like my scare quotes on “learn” earlier — but Chat missed my classic paranoid line plus smiley.
We’ve got at least another year before AI takes over.
Call out for Common Cents. Below the top story we have stories on Nancy Pelosi, Hunter Biden, the brave IDF rescue of their hostages . . . . .
Huxley, that begins to confirm a suspicion I have: that AI cannot capture the randomness of human creativity. This is just a vague notion I have, but I expect “weirdness,” for lack of a better term at the moment, to be the best test of humanity, going forward. “Weirdness” is probably way too narrow. It should encompass passion, enthusiasm, intuition, discernment, irony and a lot more.
Theorem: A borg will fail at individualism.
And weve seen from the forbin project to singularity* they never are
*an obscure one with john cusack and the latin guy from pretty woman
It’s really past time to stop calling large language models “AI”. It’s a marketing label and it’s misleading. If people think of AI as “a machine that thinks or learns in the way a human does” that does not yet exist and LLMs are not that. It’s like saying that a human who can dunk a basketball is “flying” or a book resting on a table is “levitating”.
LLMs DO provoke emotional responses in humans who interact with them, but that’s all on the human’s end, because humans are predisposed to believe that what they read is the product of a mind. The LLM is just predicting what string of text ought to follow another string of text. That’s why they frequently say things that cannot be true, LLMs have no way to know what’s true or what isn’t, they just have a mathematical model–which is essentially a table of numbers–for predicting what string of text should follow another.
On the interwebs no one knows you are a LLM.
GB @ 942pm: you are correct, I should have used “how” instead of “why”.
All that, eh?
Fascinating.
No wonder AI suffers from freak-outs and hallucinations…
(No doubt a workable 12-step program should be easy to write….—“If you feel yourself becoming emotional, jump to step xyz: else continue but keep self-monitoring.”)
It’s really past time to stop calling large language models “AI”. It’s a marketing label and it’s misleading. If people think of AI as “a machine that thinks or learns in the way a human does”
Niketas Choniates:
That’s not my understanding. AI is a machine (or equivalent) that imitates human intelligence. Sort of like margarine imitates butter without any dairy.
It does happen that LLMs are based on a neural network approach to AI that intentionally imitates human brain functioning in a simplistic way.
This approach has goes back to Frank Rosenblatt in 1943, but it has only been in the past ten years roughly that neural networks have been able to make serious, and I would say, astonishing headway.
AI is not a marketing label.
Leave a Reply
HTML tags allowed in your
comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>
You know, with all of the major problems in the world today I try not to get too worked up over first-world problems, but why are so many businesses openly hostile to their customers? I just don’t get it. It didn’t used to be this way.
@mkent:why are so many businesses openly hostile to their customers?
Significant revenue streams not dependent on sales to those customers.
Although to be fair in more recent years there has been some costs to businesses whose leadership hold their customer bases openly in contempt. Many have in fact, lost money. For example, Disney has lost billions in recent years by primarily producing content that lectures its customers rather than entertaining them. But Disney had so much money to lose that they could afford it for a while. However at some point there is a breaking point. At some point investors become less willing to set huge piles of money on fire. It’s just a question of when.
Damn it neo. That video was fascinating. I watched the whole long thing.
______
I agree with mkent, and it’s an interesting question. My partial answer, and it may a smaller piece of the answer, is that the consumers have changed. It seems to me that as the millennials and gen Z have matured, they don’t care as much about frugality, being selective, or doing a bit of consumer research. The upshot is that businesses can get away with treating their customers like serfs.
Hunter Biden has been convicted on felony gun charges. I assume that Joe Biden will wait to pardon him until after the election.
Along with TommyJay, that’s one of the best science lectures I’ve seen in a long time…I was mesmerized. Not being a biologist, I really enjoyed learning where the truly basic question of the field is going. I do have one quibble with Mr. Ball at the end: he quotes the physicist, Michael Barry who rightly said the real question is why the chemistry of life produces life. Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation, but his entire presentation just continually, to me, brings up the notion of the need to bring QM more into biology. He produces very convincing evidence of the “fuzziness” and randomness that is necessary for the mechanism of life….that just screams quantum. He talks of the need for a brain as a higher order gene control of the individual. Yet, the idea of consciousness, ( and I think he’s on the right track with the idea of “agency”) seems to require QM at some point.
Oh well, just the ramblings of a retired physicist, who when I raised such questions with the biologists I knew, would scoff at me and basically tell me to stay in my own lane.
Hunter Biden was found guilty on three felony charges for illegally buying and possessing a gun while addicted to crack cocaine. Federal law expressly makes it illegal for individuals using illicit drugs to possess firearms. He could face 25 years in prison and fines for the conviction.
The quickness of the jury’s return had most experts predicting a guilty verdict.
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/06/11/verdict-reached-in-hunter-biden-trial-n4929760
_______________________________________
Interesting. And Papa Joe has said he wouldn’t pardon his son.
I’m sure he misspoke.
On Hunter conviction: now all the Ds can say how “wonderfully” fair and even handed they are now that the Prez’s son has also been convicted, and how much the “rule of law” is upheld. Gag!
Unlike the farce of a trial with Trump, in the Hunter Biden case you can point to a specific and demonstrably real crime that was committed rather than a choose your own adventure, inferred crime that may or may not have actually occurred.
Hunter Biden Convicted of All 3 Felonies
As a first time offender, it’s unlikely that he will face jail time…
Yep
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/struggling-with-struggle?publication_id=323914&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=1ibkm2&utm_medium=email
Now round 2
https://x.com/bhweingarten/status/1800560100631007690
This does seem like a set up to go easy on the tax case, which might be more consequential since it involves the big guy. I can’t find much information about the tax case outside the left-wing media. Does it use the testimony of the IRS whistleblowers? And the WhatsApp messages about Hunter having the big guy in the room with him with a Chinese “business man.”
for this case, I suspect something along the lines of 5 years, suspended, contingent upon staying out of future trouble (tax case is past trouble) and remaining sober, fine, and community service. Which I’m fine with as it wasn’t related to other crimes, such as selling drugs, armed robbery, etc.
I have heard some legal pontificators suggest there might be harsher penalties solely because Hunter took this to a jury trial rather than take a plea deal. I hate that. Yes, there is added expense and time, but the Sixth Amendment guarantees Americans the right to a jury trial. There should not be added punishment for exercising a constitutional right.
Tonight would be start of Shavuot, or “Pentecost” on the Jewish calendar. (For Christians the Time of Acts chapter 2 ) Last of the Spring Levitical Festivals.
Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation,… — physicsguy
Yes. I instantly thought, “Why not QM?” I have no feeling that it would be a whole answer, but it could easily be an important element.
I haven’t checked out Mr. Ball’s background, except that Youtube says he was an editor of Nature for a long time. I know I sort of have a bias against ideas like “dark matter” based on close to zero knowledge. I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
One of the cool things about solid state physics theory is, how essential QM is to much of it. Our modern world with all the chips and now even our light bulbs depend on it.
I suppose it’s possible that Joe Biden will just commute Hunter’s sentence after the election rather than outright pardoning him, then he can say he didn’t precisely lie when he said he wouldn’t pardon Hunter last week if he were to be convicted. But if Biden loses the election, he may as well just pardon him (and all Biden crime family members) since he wouldn’t have a reason to not go back on his “word” at that point being that there would be no real consequences to him doing so then.
@TommyJay:I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
In biological systems you have high temperatures compared to the available differences in energy states, and you have very complex systems of atoms and molecules. I wouldn’t say that ruled out quantum behavior having much effect on biological systems, but I think it does make sense that it’s not the first kind of solution sought for in explaining a biological system.
There is a lot of physics in biology, for example why are there tiny cells and not giant one-celled animals? In something the size of a cell, at temperatures comfortable for Earth life, atoms and molecules can visit all parts of the cell by diffusion many times in a second and there’s not as much need for “machinery” to transport them from here to there as there would be in a one-celled organism the size of say a cat.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13517645/Jesus-childhood-revealed-2-000-year-old-manuscript.html
Weirdly enough, there are rare examples of relatively gargantuan unicellulr organisms.
@Nonapod: Yeah there’s a few. That one works because it’s got multiple nuclei and the cell itself is really the thin membrane enclosing a huge bubble.
Life is just such a remarkable thing it cant be random have we found it any where else and cognition is an even higher order circumstance
The video of Pelosi admitting responsibility for not having the National Guard or capital police prepared for the J6 demonstration is going viral on conservative media. Except for politico, the left media are ignoring it. Politico uses their article to try to debunk it. See this discussion by Jonathan Turley.
“The video was disclosed in a posting on X by a House Republican panel. The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:
“We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous. You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard? Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?…They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”
The video was never released by the J6 Committee, which was criticized for its highly choreographed and scripted hearings with little balance in the presentation of evidence. The lack of emphasis on the security issues was glaring and raised by critics throughout the hearings.
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/06/11/i-take-responsibility-pelosi-captured-on-previously-undisclosed-tape-admitting-that-she-was-responsible-for-lack-of-security-precautions-on-january-6th/#more-219909
Just another open-thread comment about something I read.
A few days ago, “RealClear Science” published a summary of a large, recent survey of psychology professors (https://tinyurl.com/4neemue9).
The survey was designed to identify and describe the ten most taboo subjects dividing psychologists.
It’s also noteworthy that only 56.5% of the professors said that scientists should prioritize truth, if truth conflicts with social equity goals. Percentages for younger professors and women are higher, so Psychology’s rejection of the truth will ony get worse. Unsurprisingly, here we have more depressing evidence that the soft sciences have been taken over by left-wing political activists.
Anyway, here are the top ten taboos:
1. The tendency to engage in sexually coercive behavior likely evolved because it conferred some evolutionary advantages on men who engaged in such behavior.
2. Gender biases are not the most important drivers of the under-representation of women in STEM fields.
3. Academia discriminates against Black people (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).
4. Biological sex is binary for the vast majority of people.
5. The social sciences (in the United States) discriminate against conservatives (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).
6. Racial biases are not the most important drivers of higher crime rates among Black Americans relative to White Americans.
7. Men and women have different psychological characteristics because of evolution.
8. Genetic differences explain non-trivial (10% or more) variance in race differences in intelligence test scores.
9. Transgender identity is sometimes the product of social influence.
10. Demographic diversity (race, gender) in the workplace often leads to worse performance.
All those hard stares from the Brandon family (as in lifestock herding dogs) were not sufficient to direct the jury? The Delaware effect fails?
Anyway, here are the top ten taboos:
==
The article says taboo conclusions, not taboo subjects.
Nausea medicine incoming
https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2024/06/11/hot-takes-the-coping-seething-and-delusions-commence-among-usual-suspects-after-hunter-guilty-verdict-n2175322
Niketas,
Your thermodynamic argument does not negate the need for QM. You make a macroscopic entropy argument when the processes Ball describes are at the molecular level. Just because mRNA, proteins etc are large molecules doesn’t negate the fact that their interactions and bonding are governed directly by QM.
Aren’t these just three variations of the same crime? Shouldn’t conservatives be speaking out about the misuse of charging defendants with multiple variations of the same crime to induce a guilty plea?
An even more egregious example, of course, is 34 felony counts for writing multiple checks. Had Trump’s organization paid Cohen in one check, wouldn’t there have only been one count?
I know this is just a ploy to avoid jury trials and it works. In my son’s case he was charged with two felonies– both with four year sentences to be served consecutively. If he pled guilty one of the charges would be dropped. I told him to plead guilty– since he had shot the guy. But a smart lawyer might have been able to make the case it was self-defense. To mount that defense would have cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $50,000– to get a competent lawyer, with no guarantees it would have succeeded.
Conclusion 3 is madcap; no one subscribes to it honestly. Conclusion 4 is blatantly obvious; only liars would dissent from it. Dissent from conclusion 6 is an indicator of mendacity or pig ignorance. Ditto dissent from conclusion 9.
==
My hypothesis about the descriptive statistics on giving priority to truth is that a great many of the respondents are giving a pro forma answer. There are people of integrity in academe, but they’re not in gatekeeper positions; faculty members will devote their ingenuity to manufacturing specious arguments to get what they want.
@TommyJay:I wonder if Ball has a bias against quantum theory, or thinks it only pertains to the subatomic realm.
He might answer your question.
An Introduction to Quantum Biology – with Philip Ball
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLeEsYDlXJk
Aren’t these just three variations of the same crime? Shouldn’t conservatives be speaking out about the misuse of charging defendants with multiple variations of the same crime to induce a guilty plea?
==
The second charge is redundant, not the third.
An even more egregious example, of course, is 34 felony counts for writing multiple checks. Had Trump’s organization paid Cohen in one check, wouldn’t there have only been one count?
==
No, that’s qualitatively different and should never have been permitted.
Um why would having relations with yout patients give you an evolutionary advantage
@physicsguy:Your thermodynamic argument does not negate the need for QM.
You are correct and that’s why I never claimed it did.
Just because mRNA, proteins etc are large molecules doesn’t negate the fact that their interactions and bonding are governed directly by QM.
You are correct, which is why I didn’t dispute that, and I can’t imagine Ball would dispute that.
All was I getting at is why QM is not the first place biologists tend to look when they’re trying to explain something. I don’t think it’s simply closed-mindedness as TommyJay suggested.
Mr. Ball then brushes off any QM explanation, but his entire presentation just continually, to me, brings up the notion of the need to bring QM more into biology. He produces very convincing evidence of the “fuzziness” and randomness that is necessary for the mechanism of life….that just screams quantum. He talks of the need for a brain as a higher order gene control of the individual. Yet, the idea of consciousness, ( and I think he’s on the right track with the idea of “agency”) seems to require QM at some point.
physicsguy:
A month ago Sabine Hossenfelder posted this intriguing video:
_______________________________________
This is news that I certainly didn’t see coming. Do you remember Roger Penrose’s idea that the human brain uses quantum effects in microtubules, and that those are origin of consciousness. Yeah, that sounds pretty crazy. But well, it seems that he was right. At least about the microtubules.
–“Brain Really Uses Quantum Effects, New Study Finds”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6G1D2UQ3gg
_______________________________________
I enjoy maverick science but even I was eye-rolling on Penrose’s speculation that consciousness might be explained by quantum effects in microtubules.
We still don’t have a full explanation, but apparently it is true QM is involved with microtubules.
Today, Pres. Biden said: “now is the time, to talk about gun safety, + crime with guns”.
No.
NOW is the time for you to TRY TO DISTRACT PEOPLE, from bad news ABOUT YOU + YOUR SON HUNTER, because HUNTER HAS BEEN FOUND GUILTY OF BREAKING EVERY, “BEEPING” GUN LAW IN THE COUNTRY!
THAT’S what you have to do today.
(OK, so I exaggerated a little in my comment.
But Joe Biden, in my view, [has lied + cheated, in every way that he can, to try to get himself- elected president, + to try to get re-elected president. Since Pres. Joe Biden did these things, I don’t care, today.)
I wonder if Hunter Biden will get 1-20 years in jail, for breaking gun laws. I guess the American people will see.
How does academia discriminate against black people?
Art Deco, he could have only illegally possessed the firearm by lying on the form, which means he lied to the dealer, so while a different crime only occurred by committing the first two.
It doesn’t change my point that prosecutors do this to induce a guilty plea.
If justice better served by charging all three crimes? Is society better off, having Hunter in jail for 25 years, rather than 5 years?
}}} Along with TommyJay, that’s one of the best science lectures I’ve seen in a long time…
You may find this of interest, too — this one is much shorter, and “less deep”, but fun, and will likely get you interested in Richard Feynmann, and why he was that unusual combo of both a great scientist but also a very effective lecturer…
Feynman on Scientific Method
“How do we come up with a new law?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw
so climate science, socalled fails feynman’s test
Total change of direction:
This just seemed kind of cool… how they make a sign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGCD03feE9E&t=444s
Miguel: I have been using that video, for about 10+ years, especially the part about “Vague Theories”, ca. 5:00, for exactly that purpose.
😀
Particularly the notion of the change from AGW to “Climate Change”.
Re: Feynman
There were giants in those days.
They weren’t all named Einstein.
I mean how does it even qualify as a hypothesis, much less a theory,
feynman does have a very engaging style, that I only experienced through his books,
OBH, as a physicist I don’t need to have my interest piqued regarding Feynman…if fact I don’t know any physicist who would not regard him in high esteem. That video is a classic that is used and quoted by myself for decades.
Per Tucker, the FBI has become a version of Papa Doc’s Tonton Macoute.
Perhaps more focused and subtle (à la Baby Doc’s Macoute), but not by much.
Lovely
How does the theory become the organizing principle of the world
@miguel:How does the theory become the organizing principle of the world
Feynman compared it to trying to discover the rules of chess but all you can do is watch people play. You’d probably be pretty confused the first time you saw castling or pawn promotion. And you’d never know if you’d figured out what ALL the rules are, and you’d never know even if you got exactly the right rules to cover every situation you’d seen (since there are an infinite number of possible rules that could cover them).
However, you would be able to tell if you’d gotten a rule wrong by seeing a move that your rules don’t allow for.
Once you have a collection of rules that seem to be the right ones you can start figuring out which are of most importance and what the game might look like if played under different rules.
There are actually some alternative physics theories already developed just waiting for the right kind of evidence. For example, Maxwell’s equations for electricity and magnetism have already been rewritten to accommodate magnetic monopoles if ever they are unambiguously detected. There’s some motivation from quantum mechanics for wanting monopoles to be there.
After my retirement I started relearning calculus with an eye to working through the Feynman Lectures, an item on my bucket list.
I might still get to it. Though French and AI are now in the way.
Assume there has been marked temperature increases (debatsble) marked co 2 probably correlation nil, correlation to human activity even less
“I do have one quibble with Mr. Ball at the end: he quotes the physicist, Michael Barry who rightly said the real question is why the chemistry of life produces life.” physicsguy
However valuable, Science is incapable of answering the ‘why’ of things. That is the most fundamental of questions, evidenced by the eternal protest of every child… Why?
Open Thread Russian War on Ukraine:
Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine – Anders Puck Nielsen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZ402BMSs8
Listening to today’s The Telegraph “Ukraine The Latest” podcast it appears that President Trump, Speaker Johnson, and UK government officials have already been working on Ukrainian issues (such as release of aid package by the House). Unlike the Brandon junta Ukraine may benefit from someone competent who can be persuaded by facts. The FJB junta isn’t really doing much more than the minimum for Ukraine IMO.
The Telegraph appears to be clueless about the FJB junta and somewhat afflicted by OMB, not rabid TDS but a few (i.e., Francis Dearnedly) have the Media blinders. He seems not to have any military background, an academic?
But on to domestic stuff. Leftists are worried that if the FJB junta falls The Great Orange Whale will unleash the plans they had for those guilty of wrongthink on them.
Maddow Meltdown: Liberal Host Goes on Narcissistic Rant, Worries Trump Would Send Her to Internment Camp
https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2024/06/11/maddow-meltdown-liberal-host-goes-on-narcisstic-rant-worries-trump-would-send-her-to-an-internment-camp-n2175358
Geoffrey Britain,
Quite right.
In my view, the physical world that [science] studies, aka the physical world that does not obey- the desires of humans or the [human-reason] of humans,…doesn’t have a [reason] for doing anything.
The physical world, that scientists study, just exists.
Feynman compared it to trying to discover the rules of chess but all you can do is watch people play.
–Niketas Choniates
Actually that’s basically how today’s AIs work. They train on human games. Then they start playing themselves. Then they beat the best humans.
Game, set, match.
We are creating the next intelligent life.
May it be kind to us.
Today I asked ChatGPT 4o:
______________________________________
How did you “learn” there were nouns in French and they have gender?
Language models like me “learn” about grammatical concepts like nouns and their gender through the patterns present in the training data. Here’s how it works:
Pattern Recognition: During training, the model is exposed to vast amounts of text where it sees words used in context repeatedly. For example, it sees “le livre” (the book) and “la table” (the table) many times.
Associations: The model learns to associate certain words with their articles (“le” or “la”) and begins to understand that nouns often have gender markers.
Contextual Learning: By seeing how words are used in sentences, the model learns the rules and patterns of grammar, including gender agreement with adjectives and articles.
Statistical Learning: The model doesn’t explicitly know grammar rules but recognizes statistical regularities, such as “chat” (cat) being preceded by “le” (masculine article) and “maison” (house) by “la” (feminine article).
Through extensive exposure to text, the model picks up these patterns and applies them when generating or understanding new text.
______________________________________
By “vast” and “extensive” Chat means billions, trillions etc. It’s amazing what the AIs do, but it don’t come easy or cheap.
One last Chat exchange:
_______________________________________________
I don’t mean to make a big thing of it, but Chat, you spook me.
I understand that the capabilities of AI can sometimes be surprising or even unsettling. It’s important to remember that while I can provide information and assist with various tasks, I’m just a tool designed to help users with their inquiries and learning. If there’s anything specific on your mind or anything you’d like to discuss further, feel free to let me know!
Yes. That’s what I would expect you to say. 🙂
I appreciate your understanding! If you have any questions or if there’s something specific you’d like to talk about or explore, I’m here to help.
_______________________________________________
Well, that’s a relief. My emoji’d irony sailed right over Chat’s head.
Chat often picks up nuances — like my scare quotes on “learn” earlier — but Chat missed my classic paranoid line plus smiley.
We’ve got at least another year before AI takes over.
Call out for Common Cents. Below the top story we have stories on Nancy Pelosi, Hunter Biden, the brave IDF rescue of their hostages . . . . .
https://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
Huxley, that begins to confirm a suspicion I have: that AI cannot capture the randomness of human creativity. This is just a vague notion I have, but I expect “weirdness,” for lack of a better term at the moment, to be the best test of humanity, going forward. “Weirdness” is probably way too narrow. It should encompass passion, enthusiasm, intuition, discernment, irony and a lot more.
Theorem: A borg will fail at individualism.
And weve seen from the forbin project to singularity* they never are
*an obscure one with john cusack and the latin guy from pretty woman
It’s really past time to stop calling large language models “AI”. It’s a marketing label and it’s misleading. If people think of AI as “a machine that thinks or learns in the way a human does” that does not yet exist and LLMs are not that. It’s like saying that a human who can dunk a basketball is “flying” or a book resting on a table is “levitating”.
LLMs DO provoke emotional responses in humans who interact with them, but that’s all on the human’s end, because humans are predisposed to believe that what they read is the product of a mind. The LLM is just predicting what string of text ought to follow another string of text. That’s why they frequently say things that cannot be true, LLMs have no way to know what’s true or what isn’t, they just have a mathematical model–which is essentially a table of numbers–for predicting what string of text should follow another.
On the interwebs no one knows you are a LLM.
GB @ 942pm: you are correct, I should have used “how” instead of “why”.
All that, eh?
Fascinating.
No wonder AI suffers from freak-outs and hallucinations…
(No doubt a workable 12-step program should be easy to write….—“If you feel yourself becoming emotional, jump to step xyz: else continue but keep self-monitoring.”)
It’s really past time to stop calling large language models “AI”. It’s a marketing label and it’s misleading. If people think of AI as “a machine that thinks or learns in the way a human does”
Niketas Choniates:
That’s not my understanding. AI is a machine (or equivalent) that imitates human intelligence. Sort of like margarine imitates butter without any dairy.
It does happen that LLMs are based on a neural network approach to AI that intentionally imitates human brain functioning in a simplistic way.
This approach has goes back to Frank Rosenblatt in 1943, but it has only been in the past ten years roughly that neural networks have been able to make serious, and I would say, astonishing headway.
AI is not a marketing label.