What will happen if Trump is convicted and imprisoned?
Commenter “physicsguy” writes: “I haven’t seen anyone else express my real fear: a conviction and tossing Trump into jail is the spark that ignites CW2. Again, maybe that’s the Democrat long game to force marshal law, as well as keep Trump out of the WH.”
I don’t know the answer. We are in uncharted waters, at least in the history of this country. The left is in power and wants to make sure it never again relinquishes it. They have already gone much further than ever before in the US, but it comes from a combination of confidence and fear.
Confidence because they hold the reins of so many institutions: the presidency, the Senate, much of the judiciary, the MSM, much of social media and search engines, the DOJ, the FBI, the State Department, education at all levels, Hollywood, book publishing, the arts, the CEOs and higher-ups of many corporations and even of much of the military, and I’ve probably left out a thing or two.
And what’s the origin of the fear? It’s that, now that the left’s mask is off or at least partially off, they are afraid of the wrath of the people. They know that this is a top-down imposition of leftist values on a reluctant populace, and there’s strength in numbers. They talk about “our democracy” but are tremendously afraid of it, which is why they must control sources of information and also are not above election fraud if necessary. The fact that they are executing lawfare against Trump makes it crystal clear that cheating is something they are willing to do; is it any wonder people don’t trust the election process anymore?
Personally, I don’t think there will be any CW2. There certainly might be violence, though. For that reason, I think the left may stop at merely convicting Trump rather than imprisoning him, and may be satisfied – for the moment – with merely labeling Trump a felon. If so, I sincerely hope it backfires on them in November by encouraging Trump’s election.
By the way, the point of the persecution of the J6 defendants was to let it be known how any sort of violence from the right will be met by the government.
Could be a call for a general strike, as has been a long tested plan in many countries though the ages.
They certainly are trying to put him in jail so expect if they get their wish itcwill be quickly done.
Skip
A general strike will not hurt the leftist elite, it would only hurt the “deplorables” and “clowns” population about whom they care nothing.
There has been no violence from the right….yet.
I am no advocating a General Strike, just bringing up options instead of the American Civil War II they want it seems to me. It’s that or totally domination
Instead of a General Strike, maybe people can figure out a strike that won’t hurt the good guys. I don’t know what that is, but there is probably an alternative to violence or complete shutdown, which is what the bad guys probably want.
“I haven’t seen anyone else express my real fear: a conviction and tossing Trump into jail is the spark that ignites CW2.”
Who would make that call? How would such a thing get rolling?
I don’t think even Trump’s most ardent supporters would fire “the shot heard round the world.”
More likely…hung jury & some lefty FBI/CIA plant gets ginned up & takes a crack a POTUS Trump. Now that might start something.
Let’s pray nobody shoots anybody.
there was so little violence unlike what we saw in the spring and summer of 2020,
there was the pushback when they teargassed the crowd, the police barricades were opened up, the three cops at the door to the antechamber, suddenly moved out of the way, so michael byrd could get a clean shot at Ashley Babbitt
https://twitter.com/NoVA_Campaigns/status/1795891371309502767
but how did we get here, like the talking heads refrain goes, most media is absolutely dead, magazines, newspapers tv stations,
of course at least two of the extras from anchorman, Gonnell and Fanone, (thats the way I saw Deniro’s posse, have demonstrably lied about their confrontation with protesters,
A major problem with our current situation is the courts’ refusal to intervene or even weigh in in many cases. The plaintiffs “lack standing” is the go to excuse to do the hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil monkey game. They’ve been easily intimidated, cowardly, downright evil and complicit, or any combination of the above by not addressing the very real irregularities of the 2020 election, and here we are.
I hope that CW2 doesn’t break out, but there are an enormous number of angry and armed people fed up with the government’s totalitarian actions the past four years in particular. It would be foolish to not consider the powder keg that we’re sitting on here.
My hope in getting through the next few months is that the courts will step up and do the right thing and will do so most expeditiously because this needs to be settled post haste. If the courts continue to drag their feet, my hopes of avoiding more bloodshed in the streets will fade.
And, yes, there already is bloodshed in the streets. The violence of the left is nonexistent if you talk to leftists. They sincerely have not heard of most of the facts that are common knowledge to people who don’t listen to TikTok, Facebook, CNN, and the the other useful idiots that comprise the Fourth Estate.
I think if there’s a hung jury that we’ll see leftist violence in the streets.
My fear is that the Democrats will find some that their agents provocateur can convince to assassinate Mr. Trump.
They can then use the assassination as an excuse to crack down on their ” enemies of the state “, as Nancy Pelosi once called them.
One point I said around long ago they get Trump they won’t stop. They are well over 1,000 Jan 6 Ralliers locked up. Marxists don’t stop and eventually start on each other.
What Kate said.
And I still contend it’ll be “false flag” DNC/FBI/CIA generated.
If Trump is ‘convicted’ and imprisoned and the traitorous democrats ‘win’ in Nov. it will lead to a real insurrection. In response, the resident in the White House will declare nationwide Martial law and the second American Revolution will have begun. It will not end well for those on the left for they are far more vulnerable than they imagine. We all must pray that the Democrats do not force us across that Rubicon.
windbag:
“A major problem with our current situation is the courts’ refusal to intervene or even weigh in in many cases. The plaintiffs “lack standing” is the go to excuse to do the hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil monkey game. They’ve been easily intimidated, cowardly, downright evil and complicit, or any combination of the above by not addressing the very real irregularities of the 2020 election, and here we are.”
I think this is spot on. The courts have so far abdicated their responsibility hoping that somehow things will work themselves out after Trump has left the scene. You simply can’t have a functioning government when half the people have no faith in the justice system.
I believe the correct term is martial law, as in military law.
Sadly, I do think civil war is a distinct possibility. Although I don’t think a Trump conviction or even imprisonment will be the proximate cause.
We’re definitely in uncharted territory. So uncharted that pretty much all predictions are uneducated guesses. Here’s mine:
Trump will not be acquitted. I put outrifht acquittal at a 1% chance.
A hung jury is possible. It really depends on whether one of them has a shred of integrity or respect for the rule of law, regardless of political preferences. I put that at about a 29% possibility.
Conviction on at least some of the charges is at 70%. And then? The great unknown.
Sooner or later, SCOTUS will have to intervene, on Constitutional grounds. The circuit justice for the Second Circuit is Sotomayor, so don’t expect any intervention from her. It’ll have to be the whole court. And I think that is part of the reason for the sudden absurd attacks on Alito. Assuming SCOTUS ultimately vacated a conviction on due process grounds, the left wants to delegitimize the conservative justices in every way possible.
Never forget: the left plays the long game. Yes, imprisoning Trump is the short term goal. Preventing his election is the intermediate goal. But a long term goal is advancing the left’s broader agenda, with it comes in 2025 (if Democrats manage to hold the Presidency and control Congress) or years in the future. Packing SCOTUS is high up on that agenda. Forcing the conservative on majoroty SCOTUS to vacate a Trump conviction is a great way to justify court packing in the eyes of millions of left leaning voters.
I guess Mark Levin’s friend’s optimistic view that the case could flip to the Supremes doesn’t have much traction here:
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The NY trial court represents an imminent danger to the fair and untrammeled conduct of a federal election for the most powerful position in America and the world. The Supreme Court has the power to act to protect our democracy. And it should. If a guilty verdict is returned, it should act right away.
–Arthur Fergenson, “Here’s What Could Happen If Trump Is Found Guilty”
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/05/29/heres-what-could-happen-if-trump-is-found-guilty-n4929407
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I consider it possible. The SC kept Trump on the ballot in Colorado by unanimous vote:
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-wins-colorado-ballot-disqualification-case-us-supreme-court-2024-03-04/
I suspect the Supremes voted for upholding its own power over puny state officials as much as the right/wrong of it.
So in a case as flagrant as this, I can see the Supremes doing the right thing even if their only reason is to protect their own credibility.
If Trump manages to skirt the margin of fraud and win in November, we’ll see a true insurrection, from the left.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/06012024-color-revolutions-the-most-sophisticated-means-of-warfare-analysis/
I’m very skeptical that anything “kinetic”, so to speak, happens if Trump is imprisoned. Middle-class people simply have too much to lose, and those are the people who are going to be mad about it.
No, we’ll just keep our heads down, keep paying taxes, nod along in the mandatory DEI trainings, pay our mortgages, try to get our kids into good school districts and decent universities and hope that they don’t get put on puberty blockers without our consent, and pray that Social Security and Medicare are still around for our retirement. Meanwhile our comfortable lives will get gradually worse and worse, but nothing that reduces us to desperation: we’ll just keep trying harder to hang on to what’s left and be even more unwilling to take more risks.
I think the only thing that would push the middle class in a kinetic direction would be a sudden and massive breakdown in law and order, perhaps triggered by national bankruptcy or something like that.
There’s no cavalry coming to save us, and I don’t things CAN get better unless and until they have got really terrible indeed. And of course it’s nothing I wish on anybody.
@Rufus: I’m struck by your article, especially this bit:
What external power do you think would be at work in this case, I’m curious to know?
I have long predicted a guilty verdict and that the so-called judge will immediately send him to jail. I have also predicted our Bastille Moment when a MAGA mob breaks Trump out and burns down Riker’s Island.
OK, everybody, chill out.
A) Trump could be acquitted on all counts.
B) There could be a hung jury on any or all of the counts.
C) Even if Trump is convicted on any of the counts, there will be an immediate appeal, and Trump will stay free through November, at least.
D) Even if worse comes to worse, and Trump is sentenced, he will probably be fined and/or get some probation, which will not happen until the election is over.
So put your muskets back, minutemen, because nobody’s legs are being wrapped around anyone’s velvet rims and nobody’s hands are going to be strapped around around anyone’s engine.
My high school history teacher taught us a version of the Tocqueville effect:
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The Tocqueville effect (also known as the Tocqueville paradox) is the phenomenon in which, as social conditions and opportunities improve, social frustration grows more quickly….
According to the Tocqueville effect, a revolution is likely to occur after an improvement in social conditions, in contrast to Marx’s theory of revolution as a result of progressive immiseration of the proletariat (deterioration of conditions).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocqueville_effect
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This idea isn’t as clever as I once thought. Though it did seem to fit the 60s radicals turning to revolution so quickly with the gains in the economy and civil rights.
BJ:
I think there is zero chance of an acquittal. The chance of a hung jury? Small but possible.
However, if there is a conviction, I’ve heard legal experts say that there is not enough time for an appeal to go through the NY courts prior to the election. The best chance of an appeal prior to the election is some sort of expedited SCOTUS appeal, but I’ve not heard anyone say exactly how that would be possible.
As for (D), a fine or probation, there is also a possibility of imprisonment. I don’t think those things are really what would be the biggest problem – which is the trial itself and its unfairness, as well as the fact that the Democrats and Biden would use the “Trump is a convicted felon!!” argument as a foundation for their campaign.
BJ:
A. ‘Could be’ sure. But…very unlikely. As I said before, I’d put it at 1% chance.
B. Certainly possible, but very much a wild card. It would take at least one hardy soul…
C. That is definitely possible, depending on SCOTUS. As Neo pointed out, there’s little hope within the New York appellate system. But SCOTUS could intervene pretty quickly, if it chose to. If…
D. Maybe… A huge wild card. Neo noted that the leftist establishment might pull back and be satisfied with branding Trump a ‘convicted felon’, particularly since it’s obvious their ‘campaigning by lawfare’ strategy is not at all working. But it’s anyone’s guess.
As I said before, I think the left wants to force the hand of the conservative majority on SCOTUS. This whole kangaroo court trial has been so absurd that, assuming there’s a conviction, how could SCOTUS not intervene at some point? If they do, it will be golden fodder to justify packing the court either in 2025 (should Democrats win this fall) or at some future date (should they lose).
They always play the long game, dear friends. Always. Never forget that. Never forget…destroying Trump (while they’d blissfully relish it) is merely the short game.
Thanks for the link Rufus. I suspect that the State Dept has a big hand in the current unrest in Georgia. The unrest centers on the so called “Russian Bill” which as far as I can tell is modeled loosely on the US FARA bill. It was ingenious to label the Georgian version the “Russian Bill” as the overwhelming majority of (young) Georgians are solidly anti-Russian. Of course, the US does not want the extent to be known of funds they provide thru NGOs and other sources to undermine the current government as they are not considered to be, by the state department, sufficiently anti Russian.
Perhaps Telemachus or Turtler can weigh in.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/?s=georgia
The Appellate Division, First Department is the NY appeals court first in line to handle Trump’s appeal, should he be convicted. That court’s rules provide that a party can move for a calendar preference (New York’s term for an expedited appeal) which may be granted “for good cause shown.” There would certainly be an argument that the upcoming election provides “good cause” to resolve the question quickly here. Whether the court would buy it is a big unknown — after all, the good cause cuts both ways. But most likely, of course, it wouldn’t be granted.
If the Appellate Division affirms the conviction, Trump would still have the possibility of an appeal to the Court of Appeals, NY’s highest court, and then maybe to the US Supreme Court — but only the possibility, as both courts operate under certiorari rules that allow them to choose among the appeals they’ll accept. Obviously, neither would happen until long after the election.
I don’t know of any procedural route that would allow the US Supreme Court to take the case before New York has finished dealing with it. Doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a first time, I suppose — so many unprecedented things have already happened in this case. But as a general proposition, the Supreme Court can’t just reach in and mess with the inner workings of a state court, while the wheels are still turning.
Regardless of what the commenters here say( and they’re very intelligent people) the Left is not as confident of their position as one thinks. The loyalty of the security services has NOT been confirmed, the Left knows it’s a top down outfit and all that entails. They still want to show they’re boss but without fingerprints. Someone once said: anything that can’t go on won’t. Right now Trump’s physical safety should be the top concern.
For some reason this keeps popping up in my head “We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.” They’re running out of money.
Well, we’ll see, won’t we?
SCOTUS won’t intervene. Procedurally, it’s impossible.
https://donsurber.substack.com/p/nyt-shocked-that-a-judge-is-prepared
The appeals court is a bunch a possums
Your penultimate paragraph is how wars start. One side thinks that their actions could not start a war because it has not started yet. Of course we won’t have a civil war, look what we have already done. The French King didn’t think a revolution would start. Charles I of England thought his actions wouldn’t start a civil war. The people loved the Tsar. Wars start by miscalculation by one side about the other side. As to civil war, cf the history of the late Roman Republic/late Florentine republic. Personally I hope no civil war and return to pre-Obama standards but I won’t put money on it.
Neo, you forgot one: the non-profit sector, e.g. the SPLC, the refugee resettlement organizations, the foundations, etc. etc. They all work hand-in-glove with the left to further the neocommunist* agenda.
* I’m using the word “neocommunist” as a kind of easily understood shorthand to describe the left. They don’t actually want communism, because that implies a system of collectivism with all that entails including shoddy consumer goods. What the left actually wants is a police state with a token opposition that fills a strictly ceremonial role but with no actual power. They want an economy that functions well enough that they can have their high end dining, their vacation homes, etc. etc., but not an economy where a rising tide lifts all boats. The police state aspect might go so far as to have internal passports to curtail movement, but would also leave the borders wide open, the aim being to dilute the existing population’s influence. Eventually, a wall may be built on the southern border, but its purpose will be to keep people in.
I definitely believe that martial (not “marshal”) law is their ultimate goal. I also think that the breakup of the United States is a future possibility.
@Sgt Joe Friday:They all work hand-in-glove with the left
Non-profits do this but it’s largely on government money. Government works hand in glove with the Left. Some churches too, have become corrupted by the money they get from the government–this is why Minnesota has so many Somalis.
What happens if he goes to jail? The GOP nominates Nikki Haley to run for president, and the election is called for the Democrat on the night of election day with no need for extra days or weeks of counting, as the only viable option for most people to protest the happenings will be to simply not vote.
As far as violence, the Democrats will sure be hoping for violence. An outburst from a tiny militia in some holler down south or in the mountains out west will be enough to declare any show of support for Trump treason. Plus, they’ll get to go back and take something Trump said at one of his rallies or pressers as incitement to violence of said “militia” and then have the grounds to execute him for treason on national TV.
The Democrats were hoping for an armed mob on January 6th but didn’t get it, but they sentenced those who showed up as if they were armed, meaning they got to implement what they had planned all along. Jailing Trump and inducing his supporters to act out is their means to implement their current plan–to get him kicked off the ballot and ultimately killed by a firing squad.
Ironically, if Trump is jailed, the first thing the Dems would have to confront is whether to try to cancel the upcoming election. Because if it went ahead, they would lose.
Of course, if they DID try to cancel it, they would also lose, in a much more permanent way.
Joey didn’t think this through, did he?
Well thinking is not in his skill set but whoever pulls his strings
https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1796218873865249235
“What the left actually wants is a police state with a token opposition that fills a strictly ceremonial role but with no actual power. They want an economy that functions well enough that they can have their high end dining, their vacation homes, etc. etc., but not an economy where a rising tide lifts all boats.” – Sgt. Joe Friday
I agree. It’s actually a form of fascism. Central government planning, lots of regulations, high taxes, corruption with kickbacks and payoffs, and an elite governing class that bars entry from the lower classes.
My suggestion for mass anti-government demonstrations would be for everyone who backs Trump and the GOP to withhold 25% of their income taxes. Keep the money in a secret brokerage/bank account.
Have a specific list of demands – release Trump from jail, appoint Allen Dershowitz as AG, put Mike Pompeo in charge of the CIA, and appoint Matt Whitaker as head of the FBI. When the demands are met, people would release their taxes to the Feds.
If millions participated, the IRS couldn’t carry out legal actions and it would deprive the government of revenue they cannot do without. The problem would be organizing such a huge revolutionary movement and coordinating it.
Maybe just the threat would be enough. Although I doubt it.
https://x.com/wendyp4545/status/1796189547442692415
This is a fun thread. First-I really, really hate the phrase “our democracy”. It’s exclusive, as in it’s my democracy not yours. I grew up calling it American democracy and anyone could become an American. Inclusive .
Second-I find the lists of what Trump (from the left) will do when he gets elected very funny. Rachael Maddow read her list and I had to laugh as it was a list of what the left had already done and wants to do more of! I thought ,project much?
There’s something I read about Teddy Roosevelt that I found wonderful. He hated the hyphenated description we use for ourselves. Irish-American, black-American, Mexican-American and so on. He would say we are all Americans first not second, and that’s what’s important.
I agree to that with every fiber of my being. Inclusion and tolerance is the ideal America I want.
}}} They have already gone much further than ever before in the US, but it comes from a combination of confidence and fear.
Well, excluding the previous US civil war, yes… but, granted that wasn’t the “PostModern Left”, but its precursor. Both were/are the Democrats’ extremist wings, in full “power and glory”. While the previous was in defiance of the Fed claiming State’s Rights, this time, it will be the defiance of the States, claiming State’s Rights… Can you spell “Irony”? Yeah, it would be amusing if it were not so insanely sad.
One unfortunate issue is and has been the weak response of the Right to the Left’s relentless depredations. As with England+France vs. Hitler, historians will look back and see sooooooo many times when the Right might have “headed this crap off at the pass”, if only they’d shown more overall spine.
Note… Neo: I know you often get on about how the Right had no options, and I’m not arguing for this as “not so” … I’m speaking of times when they both did have options and/or also just standing up to them would have given the Left pause — as, again with E+F vs Hitler — there was at least one early instance where the German Army was fully prepared to execute a coup, if the Allies showed any resistance at all. A platoon of Brit/French troops on a bridge, forcing an “international incident” might have been sufficient to end Hitler in his tracks).
The Right media (and yes, it’s been there all along — both Fox and the erstwhile Rush radio networks) could certainly have harped a lot more about certain of the blatant mis-actions by the Left over and over — they both had huge audiences and making the people much more AWARE of the things the Left were doing makes them “complicit through inaction” in a manner that borders on inexcusable incompetence. The GOP has been led by milquetoasts of the most panty-stained variety all along, casually going along with anything the Left wanted, as the Left threatened again and again to stomp and hold their breath until they got their way, and The Right leaders caved, over and over… Even if The Right could not win, standing up to them had a moral imperative tied to it, would have been far far more acceptable, especially with the Right media advocating for them.
To all: yes my original posting had “marshal” instead of “martial”. Written on my phone which did an autocorrect. Enough with the spelling police…sheeesh!
}}} A major problem with our current situation is the courts’ refusal to intervene or even weigh in in many cases. The plaintiffs “lack standing” is the go to excuse to do the hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil monkey game. They’ve been easily intimidated, cowardly, downright evil and complicit, or any combination of the above by not addressing the very real irregularities of the 2020 election, and here we are.
I hope that CW2 doesn’t break out, but there are an enormous number of angry and armed people fed up with the government’s totalitarian actions the past four years in particular. It would be foolish to not consider the powder keg that we’re sitting on here.
Agreed. I see this as quite possibly the “Straw that breaks the camel’s back.”
Anything that attempts to prevent this election is likely to lead to a major backlash, in physical form. Anything like the banana republic grade election we had in 2020 is certain to also lead to a backlash…
And I don’t see how either of those two not happening will keep Trump out of office. There is no way Biden or his Veep (won’t be Harris, I don’t think) will get elected without some blatant cheating by the Left (see my earlier comments, in an earlier thread, about a magical faked video appearing the last week of October which somehow turns all the independents against Trump just long enough to change the election — exposed to be a fake, despite all manner of “official” and merdia claims to be real — two weeks after the election)
I’m also curious what the official standard process would be for both a PotUS nominee and a PotUS-elect “dying” before the election and/or being re-inaugurated. The latter is probably known… the former may be entirely up in the air. It might become a Newsom-Trump election choice.
As soon as the words “Our Democracy ” come out I know it’s a Marxist counting on the %51 to follow their diatribe
back of the book section,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/slovak-prime-minister-discharged-from-hospital-two-weeks-after-assassination-attempt/
@OBloodyHell:The GOP has been led by milquetoasts of the most panty-stained variety all along, casually going along with anything the Left wanted, as the Left threatened again and again to stomp and hold their breath until they got their way, and The Right leaders caved, over and over…
They’re milquetoasts about what WE care about, but they are steely-spined and ruthless on what THEY care about, which is making sure that connected people get appropriations. That’s why the Left gets its way, because the Right IS getting its way as part of compromise. But what they are getting is not what we, the voters who lean Right, want. They are getting something that benefits them. The trough must be kept full.
If you’re watching red/blue campaign issues, and not watching appropriations, you are looking where the media and the government wants you to look, and like in three card monte you will never spot the trick.
For example, the legislation that created the “disinformation” architecture that we suffer from today was slipped in to a defense spending bill by the Republican leadership. The money for the NGOs that are out there collecting votes and helping illegals comes from those appropriations bills. The Dems get what they want because they help the GOP get what it REALLY wants.
covering their bases
https://twitter.com/FDRLST/status/1796271384198570185
A short review of the Vigilance Committes might be in order. They certainly got the attention of corruptocrats in Cali in the 1850s. They also turned Cali Republican for 120 years. Will the current democrat corruptocrats manage to do the same thing today? Maybe. Depends on how much rope we have. Cheers –