Who was Iran’s Raisi, and what happens now?
Iran’s President Raisi, who was killed in yesterday’s helicopter crash, was responsible for the death of many political prisoners:
He was sanctioned by the US in part over his involvement in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 known as the “death committee” at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.
In 2022, to quell mass street protests following the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody after being arrested by morality police for allegedly not wearing a hijab, Raisi unleashed a thuggish security crackdown on young people across the country that killed more than 500 people and saw more than 22,000 detained.
The article I linked said his nickname was the “Butcher of Tehran.” A kind of Iranian Robespierre. He was also probably next in line to replace the elderly Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is 85 years old and ascended to the office in 1989 as Khomeini’s successor. Prior to that, he – like Raisi – held the office of president. So you see the way the Iranian succession goes.
Now what will happen? Raisi will be replaced by the First Vice President, but in 50 days an “election” will take place to choose a successor. But the real question is who will succeed Khameini. Before Raisi’s death, it was considered to be a contest between Raisi and Khameini’s son. Now I suppose Khameini’s son is the frontrunner, but I’m going to assume there are plenty of other candidates jockeying for position. This article, written before Raisi’s accident, mentions that Khameini’s son might not succeed his father because there is some opposition to the idea of a hereditary rule. The article also mentions someone named Alireza Arafi as a possibility.
But the person who becomes the new president and the person who ends up succeeding Khameini (not necessarily the same person) will be cut from the same stern cloth as the others in the Iranian theocracy. Of the I am fairly certain.
And then there’s the question of whether the helicopter crash was an act of sabotage by a rival or enemy. My guess is that – because of the weather and the age of the helicopter – it was a bona fide accident. But as is the case in some murder mysteries, there’s no dearth of candidates for the perp if it was a deliberate act. Any of Raisi’s rivals are possibilities. The internet has already started blaming the Mossad, but it doesn’t seem like it matches their usual modus operandi.
I think it was deGaulle who supposedly said ‘the graveyards are filled with indispensable men’. Then again, the machine in Iran made it a point to remove the competitive element that had been present in the country’s elections since 1997 in order to place him in office, which is an indicator that Boss Khamenei (life expectancy in 2001 about 6.5 years) did not trust the generic establishment candidates who pass through the various screening committees. Consider the possibility that intramural disaffection within Iran’s political elite makes a continuation of the substantive aspect of the current regime quite chancy. See what resulted from the Soviet transitions in 1953 and 1985.
He’s one of the reasons why the UN is always eager to give so many Human Rights (especially Women’s Rights) portfolios to Iranian “representatives”….
I doubt that his death makes any immediate difference. With his death, there is one fewer competitor for the succession to the current Ayatollah- Kahmeini. As this means that the leading contender to be the successor to Ayatollah Khameini is now Khameni’s son, this brings forth issues of hereditary succession, which will not go over well with many Iranians. That was one reason for getting rid of the Shah.
Time will tell. Iranians have suffered periodic deaths of higher ups in helicopter crashes, without any great consequences.
Richard Grennell:
https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/1792624028227907826?t=rSctf2pYXaOmnGO6KdDBBA&s=19
Grennell must surely understand that his question is purely rhetorical…
The fact is that Raisi is a role model for “Biden”.
“He” would like nothing better than to achieve similar results regarding “his” own political opposition but is, at least for the moment, quite a bit more constrained than “his” role model from doing so. (Well, one can have the audacity to dream…of endless EOs and packing the Court)
Still, “he” should be able to feel a real sense of accomplishment seeing that he’s been able thus far to destroy and/or drive to despair so many January 6 lives—along with the myriad fentanyl-riven Lives of Others—with many more (of both, along with additional, categories of “his” victims) on the way.
I see that the internet is focusing on Mossad agent “Eli Copter” as the assassin.
🙂
Just exchanging one sack fly blown of excrement for another in a long line of excrement sacks.
The question should be ” is Eli a Kidon?”
I’m guessing another one of the Revolutionary Guard candidates, Raisi was detestable in his own right but Abdullahian was worse, as his role in October 7th
Sennacherib:
🙂 +