Trump’s rallies and the election (plus Biden says the polls are wrong)
Trump’s rallies draw a lot of people. An awful lot, even in blue states like New Jersey. Does this matter in terms of the 2024 election?
It’s certainly a good sign. It certainly means that, once again, he speaks to a great many people who are deeply frustrated with and angry at the Biden administration, the state of the country, and the state of the world. These people not only plan to vote for him, they plan to vote for him with enormous motivation and energy, as though the fate of the country and the world depends on it.
Because it very well may.
But I maintain that the rallies tell us little about who will win the actual election. Part of the reason is, of course, the opportunity for the Democrats to cheat, especially in big blue cities. Democrat voters are strongly motivated too, but in a different way. Few like Biden or want to go see him. But they regard him as the person who is standing in the way of a Trump re-election.
And so they will hold their noses and do whatever it takes to vote for him, whether they want to go see him speak or not. And it’s mostly “not.”
I wrote something similar in 2020. An excerpt:
There is no doubt in my mind that Trump has a ton of voters and that many of them are wildly enthusiastic rally-goers and voted for him with extreme intensity of purpose. If that was enough, he would have won in a landslide, and fraud couldn’t have kept up with it.
There’s also no question in my mind that Biden has almost no supporters at all, and that a great many of those who voted for him did so with ether relative distaste or indifference. His “rallies” were marked by nearly zero attendance. …
Biden’s campaign was counting on something entirely different from enthusiasm for candidate Biden himself to bring his voters to the polls: the strength of their hatred for Trump. The media and the Democrats had spent four long years drumming up hatred of the president, and I can attest to the fact that every Democrat I know (and I know a lot of them) has been fully on board with that hatred ever since Trump announced his candidacy long ago.
I’ve never seen anything like it. …
So there was plenty of enthusiasm on the Biden side, as well as the Trump side. But it was the enthusiastic drive produced by hatred.
I don’t mean to be completely negative about the prospects for a Trump win. It could happen. I hope it happens. It’s just that I’ve seen it slip away in 2020, plus of course there was the red wave of 2022 that barely rippled. I’ve also seen the last eight years of unremitting lies about Trump, and the current lawfare that is so outrageous.
I know that Democrats are determined to do whatever it takes to defeat him no matter how popular he is. The only question is whether they will succeed, not whether they will try everything humanly possible.
ADDENDUM:
Oh, and apparently Biden is busy saying that the polls are wrong and he’s really ahead:
President Biden doesn’t believe his bad poll numbers, and neither do many of his closest advisers, according to people familiar with the matter.
Why it matters: The dismissiveness of the poor polling is sincere, not public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.
Well then, that settles it. “Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team” say so.
Although that was sarcasm on my part, I suppose it might be true. They might be sincere about polls; we certainly recall that the right is not immune to such beliefs about candidates on the right, either. And politician are narcissists – Biden most definitely is – and aides often tell the narcissists what the narcissists want to believe.
But I don’t think that’s what’s happening here. I actually think that they know the polls are bad but they think they can either come up with some October surprise that can change things, or they think they can overcome the deficit by fraud, or both. Certainly they want to be able to say “I told you so” if the fix is in and Biden wins.
If Trump wins it will be because of inflation and immigration.
I got a 32% increase in my car insurance premium bill. No accidents.
Every time one goes to the grocery store, it is a shocker.
Biden and the Dems have increased the money supply by over 40%. Wild spending. And the IRA is a prime contributor. Already $202 billion in free IRA money in 2024. What a scam. The federal government gives away free money for solar and wind, fat cats dodge their income tax bills, the increase in the money supply gears up in inflation and us plebes take it on the chin with higher utility costs and higher costs everywhere.
My biggest worry is Dem vote stealing via illegal aliens and other tested methods from 2020.
Not a rally but looks good 😉 – The staggering number of Americans who want Trump’s prosecutions investigated as ‘election interference’ is revealed in new Daily Mail poll
DEMs seem to be making more gaffes than REPs for a change, at this time anyway… Oh, Cornhead’s comment just reminded me: got an oil change + oil filter + air filter ($26++ !?!) this morning. Bill was $102 and change – paying with cash was $90.
I easily can imagine the 80 million votes Sundowner supposedly had will have to be raised to 100 million to cover the enthusiasm to dump him. The 2024 after election court cases, no matter who wins will be historic.
The efforts to keep Trump from winning show how desperate they are to make sure he doesn’t
I think the democrats are pretty confident that they can come up as many votes as they need by fraud and as Neo said, they want to be able to say “I told you so”. There’s also evidence that a significant percentage of illegal aliens are now registered to vote.
Victor Davis Hanson, in a conversation with John Anderson spends some time explaining why many conservatives continue to back Trump, despite the chaos his candidacy provokes by the media. Note the chaos actually comes from the media/leftists.
Fast forward to minute 32:00 to listen to his reasoning. Later he thinks Biden will drop out before their convention and rather than backing Harris, they will require Harris to win the convention delegates to be their candidate– which is unlikely to happen as the Democrats keep a tight rein on the actual “democracy” that occurs.
The entire interview is depressing on the whole, or should I say presents a realist pov.
The Presidential Election, Failing Higher Education and The End of Everything | Victor Davis Hanson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZotHFDHwwFU
If I picked the main reason I continue to support President Trump is his stance on national sovereignty. There was no other candidate (maybe Vivek) that I believe would have resisted the push to cede national authority to global agencies.
Most Republicans give lip service to the notion and the examples of McCain and then Romney are the reason I don’t trust Republicans.
I don’t think the donkeys are confident at all. I think they are scared to death. They seem to be making plan b, c and d for Trump 2.0.
I’ve also seen the last eight years of unremitting lies about Trump, and the current lawfare that is so outrageous.
The lies are not just about Trump either. On at least a couple recent occasions, Biden has claimed that he inherited a 9% inflation rate. Sorry Joe, it was more like a 1.5% inflation rate when you came into office.
Polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are too close, so Dem fraud will prevail in those states, giving Biden the “win”. The real question then becomes, of course, what do we about it before inauguration. Something other than traipsing thru the Capitol once again.
I don’t think the donkeys are confident at all. I think they are scared to death. They seem to be making plan b, c and d for Trump 2.0.
Chases Eagles:
Agreed. I have no doubt Dems will do their best to “fortify” the 2024 vote and that matters, but if they were confident they could just dial in their desired electoral results, we wouldn’t see so many blatantly desperate attempts to sandbag Trump.
They are paying a price in credibility, which will dog them even if they win.
What scares me is how existential this election is for Democrats, the elites and the Deep State. Therefore to what lengths they may be willing to go.
If Trump wins in 2024, he will be taking an axe to all three, and rightly so. But they know that too.
Any poll commissioned to be published publicly will have zero predictive value about the Presidential election. They are not even trying to do what it would take to make them predictive.
The “internal” polls that Biden’s team is commissioning may very well be accurate, because it is quite possible that Biden’s team is paying enough that the pollster is using a methodology that could be predictive. For example, maybe they’re polling just those deep blue precincts in the swing states and accounting for same day registration and ballot harvesting.
But the polls commissioned and commented on by the media are just hooks to hang narratives on: marketing at best, propaganda at worst.
If Trump wins in 2024, he will be taking an axe to all three, and rightly so.
The hell he will. The GOP in Congress will stab him in the back again, the bureaucrats and military won’t obey him, and anyone who goes to work for his administration will never work anywhere else again.
We don’t live in a democratic republic anymore. We live in a technocracy governed by people for whom no one has voted and who can change the law by fiat.
President Biden doesn’t believe
his bad poll numbersthat there will be more legitimate votes than his fraud ballots, and neither do many of his closest advisers, according to people familiar with the matter.Why it matters: The dismissiveness of
the poor pollinglegal voters is sincere, not public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.There, fixed it.
Yep, “he” has it wrapped up.
“He” can do what “he” wants, say what “he” wants.
The polls and the “worry” is just eye-wash.
Deception.
Playing around.
“He” has “his” ducks all lined up…and “he”‘s ready.
Short version: it’s 2020 and 2022 redux.
File under: “REINFORCED ELECTIONS” yesterday, today, tomorrow…and FOREVER.
Oops…, that should be ‘ “FORTIFIED ELECTIONS” yesterday, today, tomorrow…FOREVER.’
The only way Trump will win is if our elections go back to being mostly fair-ish, without massive fraud by Democrats. They have figured out how to steal elections and that genie ain’t going back in the bottle.
Grandpagrumble – “The real question then becomes, of course, what do we about it before inauguration.”
Before the inauguration? Nothing. It’s too late then. That is, unless you can prove that the outcome of the election is fraudulent, which you will almost certainly not be able to do between the first week of November and January 2025. And frankly, you will almost certainly not be able to do that at all, ever. Democrats’ game is mostly about cheating on voter registration and GOTV. It’s (mostly) not about manufacturing fraudulent votes, it’s about turning out a bunch of Dem-leaning voters who wouldn’t bother to vote without party operatives/family members/government officials showing up at their doorstep, filling out the ballots for them, and then dropping the ballots in the mail or at drop boxes. Remember how the Republican candidate always used to gain 4-5 points when the polls added a “likely voter” screen? What Dems are doing, basically, is finding a way to get ballots from the “unlikely voters.” And there’s not a blessed thing you can do after the fact because the overwhelming majority of votes cast are “cast” by real voters. That’s how you got 81 million votes for Joe Biden in 2020.
After the inauguration? Well, it’s going to be a lot harder then because Republicans have kissed away even partial control of so many states and will likely kiss away more this November. Those states either have or will revamp voting rules to make it as easy as possible for Dems to harvest as many votes as possible.
But what the GOP will have to do after the inauguration is win votes. No more polarizing candidates who are loathed by 50+% of the country. No more rationalizing away the polarizing candidates by whining about awful the other guy is. No more twaddle about the “uniparty.” Look at how MI and WI go this November and then tell me again about how there’s no difference between GOP and Dem control of state governments or how it’s better to purge the “GOPe.”
Right now, in states where Democrats have “reformed” voting laws, a non-Democrat needs to be leading the polls by 5-6 points in order to overcome the flood of harvested Democrat votes. That’s just reality. We either deal with it or content ourselves with losing and then whining about how unfair it all is.
The CC™ solution. Only put up RINOs to oppose any and all Democrats, that will encourage turnout of non commies to vote.
zzzzzz
That’s the ticket. Someone even less offensive and more bland than Mitt Romney, someone totally inoffensive. A landslide is there with the right candidate!
om – There isn’t a majority for Donald Trump or a Donald Trump-type candidate. He can win (sometimes) when the other candidate is double plus awful, but that’s the ceiling for him and candidates like him – eking out an incredibly narrow victory when the other candidate is historically awful. More often than not, Trump and Trump-type candidates are going to blow winnable elections (2020, Hershel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Don Bolduc) or just get their doors blown off (Doug Mastriano, the entire current leadership of the MI GOP). That’s just reality. Again, you either deal with it, or get used to losing.
I’m not necessarily saying we need more Mitt Romney, and I’m certainly not saying that any sort of “landslide” is likely. (Except maybe this year with an historically awful Democrat candidate and the world on fire.) But more Donald Trump is a ticket to permanent minority status and permanent progressive control.
https://thefederalist.com/2024/05/15/anti-trump-doj-officials-prepare-attacks-on-his-appointees-during-election-year/
Another comment – the “if you don’t like Trump, you must want more Mitt Romney and John McCain” canard is just lazy and silly.
The GOP got their clocks cleaned in 2006 and 2008, and an entire generation of young leadership ready to run for president either lost, retired, or decided not to bother running because the GOP nominee was a likely loser in 2008 and 2012. (We can argue about whether losing folks like George Allen and Bill Frist was good or bad for the party.) The bottom line is that McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 were not the party’s A-team. They were survivors who were kind of stuck between the discredited former party leadership and the then-new Tea Party movement which, having begun in 2010, did not yet have any candidates ready to run for President.
Current alternatives to Trump including DeSantis and even Haley are light-years better than McCain in 2008 or Romney in 2012. Defending Trump by pointing out that Romney lost in 2012 is just silly. (Especially when one considers, as I love to point out, that even Mitt Romney running against the first African American president in his reelection year won a higher percentage of the vote than Trump ever has.)
We need only look how mealy mouthed romney has been about this criminal looting and pillaging of this country as for mcain his enabling of obama should still shame him in whichever level of hell he is in
Of course “the polls are wrong”…
“Liberal billionaire George Soros has spent $80 million to ‘silence’ Americans, Media Research Center says”—
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/liberal-billionaire-george-soros-spent-80-million-silence-americans-media-research-center-says
Opening graf:
“Free Press”, heh.
Yep, that’s Soros’ M.O. to a T.
+ Bonus:
“Alex Soros’ access to Biden’s White House continues as he’s now visited at least 20 times, records show”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alex-soros-access-bidens-white-house-continues-visited-20-times-records-show
CC™ is living in his fantasy land again. DeSantis and Haley are not the GOP presidential candidates unless something changes at the convention. You know, there were “primaries” CC™?
Mittens is your man, a principled, not bland, somewhat stalwart republic… something. And yet for all his wonderful qualities he lost to BHO.
Lazy, silly, delusional, concerned yet conservative, that’s our man CC™.
You haven’t caught that whale BTW.
Related (but not at all new)….
“Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good says Democrats have fought attempts at election integrity;
“Good said that Democrats don’t want election integrity legislation to pass because they are counting on the votes of illegal immigrants to get them elected.”—
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/freedom-caucus-chairman-bob-good-says-democrats-have-fought-every-attempt
om – Tell me more about what I really think. This is entertaining.
CC™ thinks? He writes, but thinks?
A bridge too far.