Why is Michigan such a big deal to Biden?
Commenter “MrsX” asks:
What good will Michigan do Biden if many other swing states swing against him? Has the general sentiment in the US moved so decisively against Israel that Biden will gain more votes from supporting Hamas than he’ll lose from abandoning Israel?
Polls vary markedly on the question. For example, we have this from a Gallup poll conducted from March 1-20. The question asked was “Do you approve or disapprove of the military action Israel has taken in Gaza?” The results were 55% disapproval and 36% approval.
But that’s a way to ask the question that doesn’t probe into what the disapproval is about – for example, it could be because Israel is being too timid and careful rather than too violent. I actually don’t think that’s what most people would say, but it would be nice to know, and the pollsters don’t appear to have asked what would be an obvious question.
Or, many people – including me – aren’t happy about wars, but that includes any war, and though they’re unhappy that Israel has to kill people, they’re even more unhappy with Hamas and realize that Israel’s counter-attack is a grim necessity.
Contrast that poll with this one taken by Pew in late February, slightly before the Gallup poll but rather close in time:
Months into the Israel-Hamas war, roughly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas are valid. But how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack receives a more mixed evaluation. About four-in-ten U.S. adults (38%) say Israel’s conduct of the war has been acceptable, and 34% say it has been unacceptable. The remaining 26% are unsure. …
When asked about Hamas’ reasons for fighting Israel, far fewer Americans (22%) describe them as valid. And just 5% of U.S. adults say the way Hamas carried out its Oct. 7 attack on Israel was acceptable, while 66% describe it as completely unacceptable.
However, I have little doubt that the constant drumbeat of anti-Israel propaganda in the MSM has reduced support for Israel; the country is presented as vengeful and out to get civilians and children, plus guilty of “disproportionately” killing based on Hamas figures (which are often not identified as such). Hear that often enough and it penetrates, as Hamas and the MSM know.
But back to Michigan. In that state, there are three times as many Muslims as Jews (see this and this for comparative statistics). So that’s a rather obvious metric explaining Biden’s stance, because Michigan is a swing state and many Muslims there – numerous enough to make a difference – have pledged to not vote for him if he isn’t harder on Israel.
But what of other swing states? I think there’s also a calculation by the Biden administration and other Democrats that they can count on Trump-hatred to temper the tendency of voters in other swing states to swing away from Biden because of his treatment of Israel. Or they believe that Biden’s pro-Israel rhetoric at the beginning of the war, when more people were paying attention, will be the prevailing perception of voters. They believe that only some Jewish Democrats are likely to abandon Biden because of his bad treatment of Israel, and they are a small group in terms of the voting population.
By the way, that Gallup poll didn’t reveal a lot of voter love for Biden, whatever it may have said about approval of the Gazan war: “just 21% of independents and 16% of Republicans approve of his performance on the issue.”
NOTE: At a future date, I plan to write a post scrunching the numbers of Jewish voters in swing state versus Muslim voters.
michigan, specially wayne county, was where they extorted two election supervisors, into withholding their objections, probably the percentage of left wing activists in pennsylvania, and wisconsin are enough to make up for the difference there, now certain shia militants were empowered in the run up to the Iraq War, despite the fact they had ties to Hezbollah or the other militant faction, SCIRI
I think with hindsight we can conclude this was a bad bet, this was also part of Grover Norquists embrace of Sunni elements like one of the Alamoudis, who were involved in the assasination attempt on Khaddafi through Khalid Saffuri, who surfaced some years ago around the time of the Khashoggi kerfluffle,
this comes roughly parallel with Matt Godwin’s rather disturbing but unsurprising
survey of British Moslems, only 19% believe October 7th happened the way we did, a certain paradox considering what they believe is they consider the proper disposition of said Jews, then again considering how Mein Kampf is considered popular literature in that part of the World, it’s not that surprising,
“scrunching the numbers” is a delightful Spoonerism.
I think the Muslims in Michigan are blowing smoke. Yes, they want Biden to throw Israel under the Hamas Bus. He is getting close to doing that. The threat to not vote for him is an empty threat. In the end they will vote for Biden, or whom ever the Dems nominate.
Perhaps this is part of the Dem calculation. Those who are disgusted with Biden’s treatment of Israel probably outnumber Muslim voters several times over. But most of those probably are disgusted with Biden already. Most of those not generally disgusted with Biden but disgusted with his treatment of Israel are probably Jewish. He may lose them but gain the more numerous Islamofascist supporters. The only possible fly in the ointment is that Jewish Democrats, while numerically relatively small, loom far larger in Democratic fundraising.
So the Michigan Muslims are threatening not to vote for Joke Bidet.
Really?
IMHO, it’s all BS.
If they withhold voting for Bidet , it just helps Trump; a solid, pro-Israel guy.
Are we to believe that the Michigan Muslims do not know this?
Give me a break.
a little blackmail from the bottom, some pressure by zombie staffers, the consensus of the diplomatic and academic establishment, previously awash in saudi* now qatari cash goes a long way,
* first Stephen Emerson’s American House of Saud where he described among others the role of William Fulbright lobbying for the emirates, the censorship attendant to CSIS findings about Shia extremism then, the tentacles of BCCI this was 1983, Robert Kaplans the Arabists some subsequent work by Dore Gold, the finding that lawfare tried to suppress in leading independent researchers like Rachel Ehrenfeld, Millard Burr,major
broadsheets, on both sides of the Atlantic, re leading donors like Qasim Bin Mahfouz, Alamoudi, its not like the data isn’t there, but citing it is controversial,
mikeski:
🙂 .
When I wrote “scrunching” I sensed something wasn’t quite right there, but I was in a hurry so I let it slide.
I think I’ll leave it that way.
John Tyler:
Whether the threat is real or not – whether they’d really follow through and stay home – isn’t the point. The point is whether Democrats believe it to be real.
Michigan is a red herring, media distraction. The “narrative” becomes that good old Scranton Joe really wants to do his best to support Israel, but he has to verbally appease part of his coalition. It’s bunk, a false thread to keep the remaining establishment media comforting the median voter. Biden’s true agenda, like that of Obama, is to replace the existing power arrangements of the Mideast by parting ways with Israel and the moderate Arab states and encouraging Iran to exercise a coequal or gradually dominant influence in the region.
Time to face the reality here. All of those saying gee, Biden needs to be careful, I’m sure he doesn’t intend these consequences we see emerging, he’s just dropping the ball a little. Or maybe his team is not serving him well! Too many people can’t face the fact that Biden and Obama have switched sides.
But what of other swing states?
–neo
A splendid, apt question. If only Dems could be predicted on the basis of their own self-interest.
I suspect the Biden admin and the Dems are responding to their own “More leftist than thou” dynamics, whatever the price.
Dan D:
Embrace the power of “and.”
I’ve written about the Obama/Biden administration’s appeasement of Iran (and hatred of Netanyahu and Israel) many many MANY times, beginning way back during Obama’s presidency. I faced that reality long ago.
I don’t see anyone here saying “gee, Biden needs to be careful, I’m sure he doesn’t intend these consequences we see emerging.” The point this post is making, however, is why Biden is willing to come out more openly against Israel in the present conflict, when one might think it would hurt him with Jewish voters. Are Muslim voters more important to him than Jewish voters? That was the question.
certainly some commentators that should know better, but tony badran or lee smith or anybody at the Tablet, or assorted substacks can’t be fooled,
seeing as obama, seems to be the major gravitational force, and his influences were khalidi, ayers, said, even though it’s unclear he ever took a course with him,
that seems to be the current, and newton’s second law seems to predominate,
we have seen players like bihar, where is he,
the one who was at homeland, mcfadden at te Company who seems to be a protege of Brennan,
is there any alternate voice, like Dennis Ross, that seems unlikely, Neuberger at Treasury retreated,
Biden/Obama regime is doing what they want to do. They are aware that the bulk of the American populace has not yet been radicalized or conditioned to accept their policy choice, and many are raising questions and assuming that they are not good at deterrence. The narrative becomes no worries, we just have to appease a bloc of voters in swing-state Michigan (it could have been Minnesota, but unlike Michigan nobody thinks Trump could carry the Land of 10,000 Lakes). The convenient Michigan excuse buys time for fait accompli.
chutzpah or equivalent of same
https://www.ynetnews.com/category/3089#h1zofnblr
Michigan and Pennsylvania are traditionally Democrat states and have Democrat governors. That may make them more a part of a “Blue Wall” than Georgia or Arizona or other swing states. Pennsylvania still has more electoral votes than any other swing state (Michigan has slipped behind Georgia in the last census and lost an electoral vote). Pennsylvania is one of Joe Biden’s home states, and Biden counts on his reputation as a union guy (accurate or not) to bring him votes in MI and PA. If he loses those two states I don’t see him winning the election.
But if Team Biden really wanted to win, wouldn’t they have stopped the open border influx by now? That’s an easy way to pick up points. So, no, Biden/Blinken’s foreign policy is what they want it to be. I suppose there’s a calculation that Biden could afford to lose a certain percentage of the Jewish vote if he holds on to left wing Democrats (who are by no means all Arabs or Muslims), but that looks more like damage control for what they want to do anyway, rather than an affirmative and proactive electoral strategy aimed at winning.
Biden isn’t going to lose California or New York because of his Mideast policy. He isn’t going lose the Jewish vote in those states. But it does seem possible that a small shift in the Jewish vote in Arizona or Georgia or Nevada or Wisconsin could really help Trump. Pennsylvania has a larger Jewish population than those states. Maybe that’s something Team Biden ought to be worrying about.
then again Fetterman’s chip upgrade suggests there is something to the sensible side of the dems, (then again he’s not up for four years,
They will choose the worst course of action in almost every turn
It is important to remember that Joe Biden is actually stupid. He is not someone who has a good track record in any endeavor that isn’t based upon crime. His nickname could be, to borrow from Star Trek NG, “Often Wrong”. Also, and I am not sure where I came across this, the biggest union in Michigan (the UAW) is much less cordial with the current administration than those of the past. As usual, he is floundering, and using violence and intimidation to try to compensate. Really, he is like Dorian Gray without the painting……
This is not just electoral calculation – and not really about Israel.
This is the fruit of decades of radicalization.
The hard core politicos in the corridors of the DNC must have this.
The hard core of radicalized genderqueer AWFULS that are the Dems’ core constituency must have it.
Look at the media companies that let younger woke workers destroy them.
Look at the limp response of already-radicalized faculties in academia.
Look at the corporations lured into going woke.
A critical mass of Dems have spent so long in the echo-chamber that they can’t think rationally (otherwise they wouldn’t support Hamas, of course…) The minority with the wits to think rationally about electoral calculations is now carried before the wave of crazy.
My guess is the same is true of abortion-on-demand and radical, job-destroying environmentalism – the Dems are probably losing votes on these extreme stances, but the core – leaders and constituents – must have it.
What SHIREHOME said.
OTOH if the Moslem vote does NOT vote in full numbers for “Biden”, it means that “he” will be forced to FORTIFY elections more than “he”‘d actually want to—which may prove much harder to do in 2024 than it was in 2020, given that in theory more people will be paying attention to such FORTIFICATION.
In theory.
So it is precisely THIS that may be making “Biden” a tad uncomfortable.
(Nonetheless, I don’t think “he” has anything to worry about—the machine will be well-oiled and running smoothly; and the media will be all geared up and ready to cover up all that needs to be covered; so that such media reports of “panic”, all things being relative, are REALLY the equivalent of Obama’s rather clever 2020 misdirection: “Don’t underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to f*** things up….”
– – – – – – – – – – – –
+ Bonus (Catherine Herridge Affair, continued):
When the most corrupt “president” in American history is “worried” that their extensive coverup performance may be blown, can the most corrupt media in American history fail to act…?
‘…Reporter Catherine Herridge testifies that CBS News locked her out of the building and seized all her files, says she was working with sources to “expose government corruption”….’
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1778460987777237083
H/T Instapundit.
Related (heh)…
David Harsanyi:
“Joe Biden Is Now Chasing the ‘Death to America’ Voter”—
https://jewishworldreview.com/0424/harsani041224.php3
H/T Powerline blog.
What I don’t think Harsanyi understands, though, is that in order to justify this apparent (if not real) shift, “Biden” & Co. will go into overdrive with claims that Israel—under Bibi’s “fascist” leadership—is in fact committing “genocide” in Gaza.
IOW, it’s “just” a MECHANISM to up the ante—to reinforce the pressure on the current Israeli government in order to enable its downfall.
(For Israel’s own good, of course…just as “his” goal of America’s destruction is for America’s own good….)
Yep, hammering the “message” home (and if there’s a lie…or two or three involved, well it’s for a good—and humane!—purpose, isn’t it?):
“Biden Admin Tells Congress Famine Is Underway In Gaza For First Time”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-admin-tells-congress-famine-underway-gaza-first-time
“How Turkish Sanctions Against Israel Will Impact Bilateral Trade”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-turkish-sanctions-against-israel-will-impact-bilateral-trade
Stupid and evil
https://twitter.com/chiIIum/status/1778767823860302155
But how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack receives a more mixed evaluation.
This is hugely frustrating to me. People’s minds are being changed based on acceptance of Hamas fake statistics or media misreporting or out and out lies.
I was happy to see my question become the subject of a post. Thanks, neo!
The democrats, not Biden, are concerned because the rest of America is catching on to the fact that the ruling class has used immigration to plant a foreign population that is hostile to America in what amounts to a colony inside Michigan.
Harsanyi is a doctor by training but some symptoms are harder to discern
In case anyone has forgotten…
“‘Democracy’ Has a Peculiar Aftertaste”—
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20564/democracy
Opening bullets:
Other key grafs:
Yep, in case anyone has forgotten…(and it seems that quite a few have)…
Perhaps the Biden campaign has to go after the Dearborn votes to counteract the perceived drop in support from auto workers??
The auto companies are reacting faster to market changes:
“General Motors Co. told the state in a WARN notice last December it would lay off 1,300 employees at plants in Lansing and Orion Township, where the launch of electric pickups has been delayed at least a year. The company said it would offer displaced workers opportunities elsewhere.
Stellantis NV told the state it would lay off up to 2,450 at the Detroit Mack Assembly Plant starting in February, though “only a few hundred” employees were permanently cut, company spokeswoman Jodi Tinson told Crain’s, declining to provide a number. Additionally, the company cut about 400 salaried employees last month, mostly in Auburn Hills, with more anticipated.
Meanwhile, Ford Motor Co. has slashed shifts dramatically at Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, where planned output of the F-150 Lightning was reduced by half. The move impacted around 1,400 workers, some of which were offered work at other plants.
Volatility is typical in the industry, but not to this extent, Masters said. Automakers are moving quickly to become leaner while responding to fast changing demand signals, by making cuts at an EV plant while staffing up at a hybrid facility, for example.”
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/manufacturing/auto-industry-layoffs-michigan-underscore-rocky-ev-transition – as of 4/11/2024
The progressives might actually “win” in November, but the tide is running against them. It’ll be very similar to Wat Tyler and the “peasant uprising” of the late 1300’s. The ending will NOT be the same.
Joe Biden isn’t actually worried about Muslim or Jewish votes in MI. He (or rather, his campaign) wants data volatility in the state.
Biden needs MI to win. MI has sadly made vote by mail standards worse since 2020. If you are going to goose the numbers, you need confounding factors for the electoral data.
FWIW, Muslims historically are crap at “honest” GOTV. (I’m excluding the Somali-type racket in MN). So if you are the Biden campaign, you (or preferably an org with plausible deniability) will register a bunch, and count on vote by mail shenanigans. Then when you get weird results, you can explain with, well, “Biden got a lot more votes in Dearborn b/c of Israel.”
Likewise, assume a Jewish protest vote of, “I hate Trump because abortion/Supreme Court, I hate Biden because Israel, I’m not voting at all.” Again, vote by mail fraud can ensure those votes happen anyway.
(Separately, this is why I think Kennedy could take more votes from Biden vs. Trump in the long run. For a certain type of what I would call a “civil liberties” Jewish voter, Kennedy is a path for a protest vote versus staying home — and that type of vote cast can’t be used for vote by mail fraud purposes. Most will be in NY, NJ, CA, where their vote doesn’t help Biden, or in Florida, where they likely won’t flip Florida blue either. There will be some in MI, PA, and Maricopa county in AZ, for example, though Jewish vote in AZ and FL trend comparatively more Republican vs. other states). The Jewish vote has also been incredibly important to Dems for fundraising purposes. It will be interesting to see if the Israel policy has any impact on fundraising; maybe the Iranians and Quataris are now outspending them.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Iran Deal was done to fund who knows what in the form of NGOs or other floats back to the Dem party and/or Obama/Joe families personally (someone is funding, for example, the illegal Act Blue donations of 40k a year from the little old lady who doesn’t remember making donations at all, see Project Veritas videos), and that further justifies Biden’s pro-Iran positioning.
Politics is a dirty mess. All the more reason to have less government staffed by humans.
“Months into the Israel-Hamas war, roughly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas are valid. But how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack receives a more mixed evaluation.”
Spoke earlier today to a close friend, former colleague at State (he is still there, works in the building, as we say), about this very issue. He is center left, but open to persuasion (voted for Youngkin in VA). The above quote fits his feelings well, though he admitted that most of the center left sentiment at State sees it differently.