At al Shifa hospital: the value of a surprise attack
When the post-October 7 Israeli operation in Gaza began, the IDF gave the Gazans a lot of warning. This was primarily to allow Gazan civilians to evacuate. But it also had the effect of warning the Hamas terrorists and allowing many of them to keep moving around ahead of the IDF, aided by the extremely extensive tunnel system.
It was an incredible challenge: not only urban warfare, but urban warfare with an unusual ability for the fighters to hide out underground as well as to keep hostages there and move them around as well. Nevertheless, the Israeli forces made inroads, killing, wounding, and also capturing many Hamas fighters. But not enough.
Which brings us to the recent operation in al Shifa Hospital, about which we’re getting even more information. It has been a very successful raid:
The IDF troops have retaken most of the complex, with Israeli troops engaged in isolated firefights with well dug-in terrorists, reports suggest. “Hamas and PIJ leaders are among 600 apprehended at the central Gazan hospital, after Israeli intelligence indicated the compound was retaken,” the Israeli TV channel i24NEWS reported Thursday evening. “The arrested terrorists were transferred to the ISA [Shin Bet] to be interrogated, and the IDF continued the operation in the Shifa hospital compound, saying firefights were ongoing.”
The IDF previously raided Shifa hospital in mid-November, uncovering and destroying the terror tunnels beneath the hospital. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists crawled back into the complex, using Gaza’s largest medical facility to hoard weapons and direct attacks against the Israeli troops.
This is a large number of operatives falling into Israeli hands in one fell swoop and probably able to provide significant intelligence:
Breaking Now: ?IDF Spokesman now: The Shifa Hospital operation, was the largest operation IDF has conducted since 10/7. We captured the entire leadership of the PIJ in Gaza and many senior Hamas members; we will only reveal their names after their questioning so as not to reveal…
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) March 21, 2024
This is highly significant:
While Israel gave prior warnings during the November operation, this time the military carried out a surprise raid on Hamas-infested hospital — catching the terrorists off-guard. …
The surprise raid on Shifa marks a shift in the Israeli military strategy. “These IDF sources said that the paradigm for IDF action in Gaza has shifted, and it is now ready to act anywhere and anytime,” the JPost noted.
My hunch is that another very important factor was the previous destruction of tunnels under the hospital. The Hamas fighters probably had to take refuge in the above-ground hospital facilities instead, and when the Israeli attack came they couldn’t escape through the tunnels as they had before. Thus, the large number of casualties and even larger number of surrenders.
The entire episode very much underlines the price Israel has been paying for its efforts to placate the international community and to spare Gazan civilians.
Very good. No more warnings. Find them and eliminate them.
At this point, why bother sending the warnings? No one is going to believe that they gave them (or care if they think that they did), they will still trot out the same numbers of women and children dead each day which the media will happily print, and the terrorists have a chance to get away. If you’re going to be called the villain and blamed for massive amounts of deaths no matter what you do, you might as well go with the strategy that doesn’t allow the terrorists to escape.
when practical they do so, there is probably memory of the king david Hotel, which was the garrison of the Colonial Forces, of course the warning was ignored, as was the pretext of Operation Agatha, the work of General Barker who was deeply compromised in his actions,
https://www.americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2018/11/10/road-t-e-lawrences-damascus-syrias-civil-war
too much is made of this, lawrence’s job was take the territory, how others would dispose of it, was another matter,
https://theconversation.com/israel-at-75-how-inept-british-intelligence-failed-to-contain-jewish-independence-groups-205326
when you’re operating in an urban environment one should try to minimize casualties, of course the reverse is never true with the Arabs, the cruelty the barbarism is the point
The IDF isn’t showing all of its hand quite yet, but some of the info released so far attracts a thought of desert kites at play here (https://www.thoughtco.com/desert-kites-ancient-hunting-technique-170599). There’s a distinct appearance of purposefully allowing the “re-infiltration” (while observing it all the while) in order to concentrate the enemy where he can be either eliminated or apprehended without too much effort. But only time will tell, if even then.
Yeah sdferr. Get them to go where it’s easy to deal with them.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu says the IDF will enter Rafah with or without US support.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4549655-israel-gaza-netanyahu-enter-rafah-with-or-without-us/
sdferr, Sennacherib:
________________________________
Flypaper theory (strategy)
In military strategy, the flypaper theory is the idea that it is desirable to draw enemies to a single area, where it is easier to kill them and they are far from one’s own vulnerabilities. Perhaps the best description of the benefits of the strategy was given by U.S. Army General Ricardo Sanchez, who was commander of US ground forces in Iraq:
“This is what I would call a terrorist magnet, where America, being present here in Iraq, creates a target of opportunity…. But this is exactly where we want to fight them…. This will prevent the American people from having to go through their attacks back in the United States.”
The desirability of the strategy depends upon how many new enemies are created by using it, how many of them are drawn to the “flytrap,” and how easily they are dispatched.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flypaper_theory_(strategy)
the problem with the flypaper, were two fold, too many servicemen were sacrificed on the flypaper, and too many terrorists got out of it, that was a very cynical exercise,
General Flynn who wrote the tribal map that underlay the counterinsurgency strategy, could see these same players pop up in Syria in North Africa, and hence realize that Al Queda was far from dead, he told much the same to Obama, thats why he fired him
I wonder if this has been a part of the long term plan for a while.
Give warnings before the initial attack, knowing that the enemy would evacuate, but that allows Israel to show how much they care about civilian lives and gives them a chance to publicly document how the terrorists were using the hospital to shield their activities.
Destroy the tunnels and the path of escape as sdferr mentioned in a previous comment, then watch and wait for them to come back (my understanding is that it’s SOP for Muslim fighters to re-occupy strongholds that had already been “cleared out” by their enemies under the assumption that they won’t be attacked again) and catching them in the trap.
Good strategy.
I agree that they should stop with the warnings altogether, they just give the enemy a chance to scurry off and hide; especially given recent polling indicating that the level of support for Hamas amongst the Palestinian general population is so high. If the civilian population is helping the enemy, they are not civilians.
Without any formal notice or observable pattern, you leave an area alone. Eventually, the enemy–this being counterinsurgency–begins to gather there and, after a certain degree of security is believed, even build some infrastructure or concentrate heavier weapons for future use.
Not sure that’s “flypaper” but the result is sort of the same.
But no Hostages. I believe they are all dead.
the problem with the flypaper, were two fold, too many servicemen were sacrificed on the flypaper, and too many terrorists got out of it, that was a very cynical exercise,
So you say. However, there is no question that many terrorists were killed in Iraq.
Sadly not all of them, but I would argue that those killed put more than a dent in the triumphal post-9-11 Islamic jihadist movement and the US did not suffer another such attack.
The main problem with the Iraq War IMO was the attempt to turn Iraq into Wisconsin.
“This is a large number of operatives falling into Israeli hands in one fell swoop and probably able to provide significant intelligence:”
Upon what basis might we assume that Hamas ‘operatives’ will be willing to provide even minimal intelligence? Presumably Israel does not conduct torture and jihadists welcome death as the doorway to “paradise’.
That said, a credible threat of an ‘unclean’ execution would be persuasive. Since Allah has declared that such an unclean execution would permanently bar the jihadist from paradise. To make that threat credible, Israel would have to start executing jihadist terrorists. Of course, Israel should start the unclean executions with captured terrorists who Israel is confident can provide little to no intelligence. Publicizing those executions would establish in the jihadist minds that a ‘new sheriff was now in charge’.
You deter a mortal enemy by establishing in their minds the certainty that future attacks will bring, what they consider… intolerable consequences.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s18bvmsca
Geoffrey Britain:
The basis is that for months Israel has said they’re getting very valuable intelligence from captured Hamas fighters.
Turned Iraq into Dearborne or Minneapolis/St. Paul.
IMO, “nation building” is oversold. Pretty much anything we do to prepare to have positions in a rough neighborhood can be used by the locals; roads, improved power generators, so forth.
wouldn’t spend a dime on it without military necessity.
But “nation building” is a good label for public relations purposes.
Pretty much every nation on earth except the US has had at least a couple of weeks’ exposure to parliamentary government. Plus it’s in the history books. And many of the big shots go abroad, sometimes to study.
Doesn’t need the US to explain it.
Nation building, to be actually true, would be, in effect, attacking the culture. Requiring a certain proportion of contracts go to a previously subordinate minority group. Open schools, from whichever grade–kindergarten to university–to women.
“Advisers” to the national police use the budget to explain that Colonel so and so is far too corrupt and should be retired.
This is where the resistance begins.
Re: Nation Building
Translation: A fool and his money
Well the brits ventured into bagdad almost a century before about a century before that they ventured in kabul they got their…handed to them in 1841 with only one survivor they pulled out around 1925 despite the sage efforts of gertrude bell philby sr arnold wilson after two centuries they left little imprint on india
In Iraq, as soon as the Democrats saw an opportunity to turn the plight of a few American soldiers captured or killed into political advantage, they seized it and began working against our interests. Have you forgotten already? That’s what they count on.
And don’t forget how for years they played a blackmail game against any Republican administration, training the U.S. citizenry to believe that only Democrats could guarantee security, making sure no Republican leader could count on their support, but righteously demanding it when they were in power!
I recognized the Democrat Party for what it is a long time ago – an enterprise that attracts criminals and psychopaths, and gives them a chance to be “popular”!
Much like samuels and haj amin they picked rashid ghailani who would 20 years later would topple nuri al said so they should have known
ee cervantes
Regarding Great Britain and India:
Actually, the facts are different about the impact on India.
cervantes
Yeah, other than the railway system which unites India, and the universal use of the English language which makes widespread communication possible, and the introduction of a system of rule by the people, the Brits didn’t contribute a thing.
And, oh yes, the abolition of suttee and the suppression of the thugee stranglers.
Not to worry, Hamas has cited that not less than 75 million innocent civilians were wounded, with at least 45 million of them critically injured and likely to die.
The Mainstream Merdia confirms these numbers.
Cue international outrage.
}}} after two centuries they left little imprint on india
I’m pretty certain that most Indians would disagree with you…
In English.
As to our efforts in Iraq, we did, in fact, pretty much win that. And our efforts to create a nonsectarian society were moderately successful, for a while — the primary problem, as with Vietnam (which we actually DID WIN, if you were paying any attention), was that our lying merdia was unquestionably a fifth column operating in direct opposition to the interests of the USA and its people.
This blatant fact is exemplified, clearly, by the literally nightly “death count”, for the entire time we were there … and a Republican was in office. The moment Teh One was in office, the daily death toll absolutely disappeared. Seriously. It is also telling that, when Afghanistan crossed 10,000 killed, no one noticed it for DAYS.
The Merdia are less than pond scum. They alone are responsible for all the suffering and harm done to both the Iraqi people and to the Afghanis. As well as the earlier generation and what they did to the Vietnamese.
They better hope there is no God, because I have this feeling he’s going to be very unhappy in his judgement of their lives. I cannot know His mind, but that seems a reasonable position just from what *I* know of what they have done, in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
‘Nuff Said.
miguel cervantes said above:
It’s becoming an in-crease-ingly sticky affair.
More seriously, what with all these tunnels lying around, what if the IDF were to attack Rafah from underneath using them? That would be very interesting to see. Probably not a great idea, I know, but if there were a sensible way to do it, it would be interesting to see as a tactical matter.
after two centuries [the British] left little imprint on india
Concur in WTF with David and ObloodyHell.
om, too.
ObloodyHell
Me gusta. Love it.