Hamas makes up its casualty numbers and the world repeats them as truth
This is an important article. It exposes the blatant deception inherent in those Gaza Health Ministry casualty figures issued by Hamas and printed and quoted as truth all over the Western world:
The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. …
Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.
If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough …
The rest of the article crunches the numbers to show that they don’t resemble naturally-occurring statistics. Please read it and pass it on.
But understanding it requires at least a rudimentary knowledge of how math works and how statistics works, and many people lack those skills. It also takes the desire to confront the reality, which is that Hamas lies and lies and lies. If a person’s view of the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel is based on these lies, a mind is a difficult thing to change.
I’m not sure how to critically evaluate his article.
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The thing is, given the chaotic state of affairs in Gaza, how would their ‘health ministry’ have any idea of the death toll? Your go to explanation is that the numbers were ass-pulls.
Thanks for this important post.
BTW, WRT to:
…this is also true—and has been said by more than one statistician—about the election results of 2020…
FWIW. (To be sure, both parties—“Biden” and most certainly Hamas—seem to have an ingrained need to play by “Palestinian Rules”….)
In any event, while the following might not exactly persuade “The Righteous”, here’s something to compare and contrast…
“UNDERSTANDING ISRAEL’S WAR”—
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/03/understanding-israels-war.php
And an unusual take:
“Israel: A strange astonishment in the eyes of the nations;
“Indeed, the world is watching, with all too many casual observers passing moral judgment over the nature and scope of Israel’s military response to being attacked on October 7th….”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/386803
Time to strike Rafah and eliminate Hamas once and for all.
Read a couple articles how the numbers are blatantly made up,worse is the White House uses them without question.
I never believe anything emanating from the pie holes of Hamas.
I don’t even believe many of the videos they show.
I saw one a few years back where “dead” Gazans – shown dead lying on stretchers – could be seen moving under the sheets.
And other videos where a “dead” Gazan, was shown dead in several different locations (Maybe they were triplets and all go killed) .
There has never been a war in world history where innocent civilians have not been killed or suffered real hardships. The average German citizen living in Dresden – and experienced and died in the absolute horror of the fire bombings – may have not supported Hitler, but it made no difference.
On a percentage basis, there are probably a greater number of Gazans that support Hamas than there were German (non-combatants) that supported the Nazis.
Sort of an aside; I have read that when the WTC got attacked on 9-11, Arabs living in New Jersey were seen celebrating. I don’t know if this is true or not, but if it is, I would not be surprised.
Israel had better finish off Hamas once and for all, though I have no idea how Israel expects Gaza to be governed without the terrorists once again causing big trouble.
I am wondering about the Rafah operation, and hoping something is going on we can’t see. It’s time to finish them off.
Hamas should not be believed about anything.
Tal Heinrich to Newsmax: ‘Either You’re With Us or You’re With Terrorists’
They are passionately intent on serving as hamas’ s mouth piece as they had done for fatah and hezbollah before
There is footage of that and other events that the local reporters denied as well as celebrations in gaza that were contemporaneous
Some things cannot be excused, among them is the fact that the great majority of those who support the Palestinians and condemn Israel’s actions know what Hamas did on October 7th.
No amount of facts and evidence can convince them because in their “heart of hearts”, they justify the slaughter of babies and children.
When there’s another slaughter, they’ll support that too.
In supporting the intentional slaughter of babies and children they have shown themselves to be part of the indecent race of men. Whether cold or hot, an eternal state of war exists between the indecent and the decent.
Simply because the indecent will have it no other way.
Try to wrap yer heads around this one….
“A literary magazine’s collapse reveals the censorship the Israel-Hamas war has wrought”—
https://archive.is/99xBm
H/T Blazingcatfur blog.
The point? Israelis deserve no compassion. (How dare they even think they do…)
The result? The Narrative(TM) will eat its own…
People who use “insurrection” for J6, I can understand them using “genocide” for Israel’s’ justified response, and no intent at wiping out Balestinians. They are meme-responders.
its perplexing to see “insurrection”-deniers with “genocide”-believers, unaware meme-responders, I guess?
And what have we here?
“Could civil war break out in Gaza? Major clan inside strip ‘declares Hamas members are legitimate targets’ after its leader ‘was assassinated by the terror group’ for allegedly stealing humanitarian aid”—
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13203775/civil-war-gaza-clan-declares-hamas-legitimate-target.html
Sounds like an “obstacle to peace”(TM)….
Its called pallywood
Barry M., that’s part of what I meant when I said I hope there’s something going on we can’t see.
Much like the sahwa against zarqawis men in 2005-6
Civil War in Gaza??
When hell freezes over.
Hamas will just murder any of their opponents, including the families of their enemies.
Hamas is really no different than Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge.
30K dead, show me the graves.
A literary magazine “Guernica” cancels itself because it discovers an Israeli had been writing there. Red on Red causalities are the best kind.
Cracks starting to show? Barry Meislin mentioned Hamas murdering leader of the Doghmush clan—and at least 10 other members. Add Fatah in…
Iran Update, March 16, 2024
Barry Meislin; John Tyler:
They already had a civil war in Gaza in 2007, after Israel had pulled out. Hamas won.
Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t have another. Too bad both sides can’t lose.
I use a simple 500 / ~25 estimate of reported / actual based on the 500 killed in Hospital NYT article, vs the later more verified number. So 50,000 is more likely 2-3k.
Most of Neo’s friends who read & believe the NYT will continue to do so, as so many Democrats fail to change their minds.
When it’s really clear that Hamas will fall, and only then, will enough Palestinians agree to get rid of them.
I’m not clear on the Tablet article’s third statistical assertion: ” The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported.” Can someone explain why that is so?
curious this is not a bigger story,
https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1769391574926938241
further up thread, the Louisiana Cotton Mouth, Carville removes all doubt,https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1769387330236813520
https://catholicherald.co.uk/italian-diocese-urges-catholics-to-join-muslims-for-prayers-and-meals-in-ramadan/
what is your job here
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkfaaqnat
I guess such thoughts are halal
part of the dynamic I was referring to
https://spinstrangenesscharm.wordpress.com/2024/03/15/gen-david-petraeus-holds-up-the-iraq-surge-as-a-possible-model-for-israels-counterinsurgency-strategy-in-gaza/
Tried this earlier:
Hamas’ currency isn’t munitions.
It’s dead Palestinian civilians. These are assigned value by the rest of the world. Sort of a fiat currency, in a manner of speaking.
The more value assigned, the greater Hamas’ moral authority and legitimacy.
If dead Palestinian civilians were assigned the same value
by the rest of the world that is assigned to dead Israeli civilians, Hamas would be flat broke.
And so there would be no use for Hamas to arrange for and lie about dead Palestinian civilians.
And, so, fewer would die.
Phillip Sells:
One would expect that if any group were over-represented in the death toll it would be men. There is no question that a lot of armed Hamas fighters are involved and are being killed. And yet that’s not what Hamas reports. What’s more, women and children are usually together, and bombs should be hitting them in roughly similar proportions. That’s not what’s happening here.
The author explains:
So we have tons of women and children reported killed, but when lots of women are killed lots of children are not. We have a lesser number of men reported killed, but they are almost all fighters with almost no non-fighter men reported killed.
GIGO, Gazamites In Gazamites Out – garbage numbers.
Oh now i see
https://twitter.com/Sultanknish/status/1769459249166631239
Do the same patterns apply to the casualty “data” since November? The article’s dataset only covered a few weeks’ worth. Maybe because of these temporary truces, data in 2024 has been lacking.
Philip Sells;
The author writes: “While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough … ” In other words, it seems they stopped releasing this sort of detailed data after that.
Fair enough. It got the point across, anyway.