Haley in New Hamphire – plus Sununu
Nikki Haley is doing well in New Hamphire, according to the polls. One of the reasons is that the popular NH Republican governor, Chris Sununu, has endorsed her.
Sununu is an interesting case. I think he would have been a shoo-in had he run for the Senate from NH in 2022 against the vulnerable Democrat incumbent, as he was expected to do. Instead, he announced that it was more important that he stay as governor. He did run for another two-year term as governor in 2022, but then announced about six months later that he wouldn’t be running for governor in 2024 either.
I guess it wasn’t so very important after all that he be the NH governor, because that leaves a very good possibility that a Democrat may win the NH governorship in 2024. Nor does this seeming retreat from politics mean that Sununu is actually retreating from politics, because he endorsed Haley a little over month ago, and has been making appearances with her. Sununu has made it clear he doesn’t like Trump, and his Haley endorsement should be seen in that light.
In New Hampshire, anyone can vote in the GOP primary unless the person is a registered Democrat. And even registered Democrats can fairly easily change their registration to “undeclared” and vote for one of the GOP candidates. It has to be done by a certain date – this year it was apparently in early October – but many many people just register as “undeclared” in general in order to keep their options open. It’s no secret that Haley is favored by Democrats and Democrat-leaners in the state, and there is a great deal of money behind her.
For what it’s worth, 538 currently puts Trump at 49.1%, Haley’s at 33.8% and DeSantis’s 4.9% in New Hampshire.
A fair amount of Democrat crossover for Haley is tactical: sow discord and confusion by trying to ensure a Haley upset in New Hampshire. But I think a portion is more practical. I think a lot of Democrats realize they are in serious trouble with Slo Joe and Cackles. If so, they’d much rather see Haley in the White House than Trump
As for Sununu, I think if Haley does get the nomination, he’s likely to be her running-mate, or be assured of a senior cabinet position.
Sununu must figure he has an ace in the hole.
Makes me wonder what DeSantis’ survival plan is, if he’s polling at <5% and spending no money. Is he really that strapped? Does he really think the NH primary is irrelevant?
“a very good possibility that a Democrat may win the NH governorship”
So the D’s have a bench and the R’s do not? The state R party apparatchik seems useless… I have been to some of their county meetings and it’s like visiting an elder care facility.
Once NH goes the way of the other five NE states, it will be time to abandon the northeast.
I’m a NeverNikki
Ditto, Skip.
Meanwhile, the DeSantis drama is playing out as expected. He’s learning the hard way what any level of association with a member of the Bush clan can do to you politically. If he was a better campaigner, the loss would be tragic.
“Once NH goes the way of the other five NE states, it will be time to abandon the northeast.”
That time was long ago. NH started turning blue when the migration of democratic Massholes began moving into southern NH for tax relief. Like all such, they brought their liberal politics with them. We have friends in northern NH and even in that relatively conservative portion of the state, the blue tide is about to take over as more “southerners” (defined as anyone who lives south of the Notch) move in for summer homes that are going for cheap as the mills in the north have shut down.
Does he really think the NH primary is irrelevant?
==
It’s a reasonable wager that he things the marginal utility of his expenditures is higher elsewhere. Note that John Kasich skipped the Iowa caucuses in 2016 but managed to be more competitive than any candidate other than Trump and Cruz.
The Democrats tried a similar strategy in Iowa. It didn’t work.
New Hampshire is the classic case of blue moving to escape taxes/incompetent government but bringing their politics with them. Something similar has happened to AZ, especially Phoenix.
Mike K; physicsguy:
According to some study or other I read, NH is not the classic case that you described. The people who came from places like Massachusetts, at least according to this study, were not the cause of the purpling or blueing of the state of NH. It was allowing students to vote. NH is so small that that really really mattered.
Before Iowa, NH was always the first primary and was always considered a key bellwether. At one point it was true that no President had been elected without winning the NH primary (note this does not mean no one was nominated who hadn’t won).
However it has not held up in recent years. In 2020 Biden got 8% of the vote and finished fifth – behind Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren!
Neo, I would dispute that claim by just looking at the voting maps for NH going back at least to 2010. They show the southern counties blue. Dartmouth, UNH, and Keene St do not make up enough population to explain the shift, especially for the areas adjacent to Mass.
physicsguy:
I don’t remember when the article was written, but it was well before 2010. Pretty much the whole state has turned much more to the left since then. And the southern parts have grown in part because of foreign immigrants. Anyway, this article – which I’ve tried to find again but never have – said the Massachusetts arrivals to those southern parts actually trended fairly conservative and was not the reason for the turning in NH as a whole or even in the southern parts.