The Iowa caucuses
So, let’s see.
Were there any surprises? If you look at the poll averages and then at the results, the only real surprise was that DeSantis did better than expected and came in second.
Does it matter? Because DeSantis and Haley were nevertheless close in Iowa (Vivek closed up shop after his poor showing), I doubt either will drop out right now and that means they’ll go into New Hampshire and split the non-Trump vote. Polls in New Hampshire indicate that Trump wins, although in the 40s rather than the 50s, Haley is a very strong second, and DeSantis way behind. However, the polls include Christie and Vivek, both of whom are now gone from the race. Will that change much and help DeSantis? Perhaps a little, but probably not a lot.
I’m not sure why Haley is doing so well in New Hampshire. However, it’s a quirky state and polling there in recent years hasn’t been especially reliable. But I’m almost sure Trump will indeed do well there, so what does second place even matter – not just in New Hampshire but in general? After all, I don’t think Trump would be influenced when picking his running mate, whom I believe will come from the ranks of people who have not run against him in 2024. And I also believe that the only way he loses the nomination is if something catastrophic happens that means he is unable to run, or voters desert him in droves. The former is more likely than the latter; Trump’s voters are especially loyal. It is only if Trump is unable to continue running that the second-place finisher might end up being the nominee, if Trump’s delegates turn to him or her. But that possibility, however remote, is why I think both DeSantis and Haley will continue to duke it out for that second-place spot until their monies run out.
I keep reading that Trump set some sort of record, getting the “largest margin of victory at the caucuses, surpassing Dole’s hold of 18% in ’96 (Trump was up nearly 30% compared to the next candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis).” But that’s an absurd comparison. There’s no equivalent to 2024 and Trump for two simple reasons. The first is that usually there are more candidates at this point, and more candidates ordinarily makes it harder for any one of them to amass a really strong lead. The second and probably far more important reason is that Trump is close to the position of being an incumbent. He is a former president with a record of accomplishment that has earned the loyalty of his supporters, who are very very loyal indeed. To compare him to other candidates in previous years is a poor analogy.
Has there ever been a GEOTUS before?
Not that I can recollect. Agreed then – no comparison.
With the (unintended?) help of the Democrats and the Media, Trump has sucked the oxygen out of the ’24 GOP campaign. At least for now.
The media did rally to Haley somewhat; while studiously ignoring DeSantis.
One would think that Trump’s continued childish insults of anyone who is not paying appropriate obeisance would cause a little concern about his personality and emotional health eventually.
It is a lengthy process. Traditionally, Iowa does not identify winners; but does eliminate losers.
It’s certainly true that there have been very few presidential candidates that have enjoyed such levels of voter loyalty (and in some cases adulation) in the modern era. The only other one I can think of is perhaps Barack Obama. And that loyalty has only grown stronger with the current administration’s ceaseless lawfare. The Democrats, the administrative state, and their media handmaidens seem to be determined to make Trump a folk hero, which is a mantle that Trump is more than happy to take up of course.
Banned Lizard:
Obama.
Nonapod:
I agree with you. Trump’s Democratic enemies are formidable, all vicious Democrats. We have a Department of Injustice, and a highly partisan FBI. I see it as Democrats seeking authoritarian power, the Obama-led “fundamental transformation”, which they intend to keep indefinitely, turning the American Republic into the current equal of Putin’s Russia. The rule of men, not law.
Oldflyer:
you have to grasp and hold the fact that ALL of the media, our institutions of “higher learning” are totally in Democratic hands, and virtyally all federal tenured employees ar Democrats. The future is grim.
Well my prediction was off base, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s of little importance.
DeSantis should drop out immediately. He has no realistic path forward. He threw everything he had at Iowa, visited all 99 counties, got endorsements from the governor and from Bob Vander Platts…for what? To perform *slighty* better than the last poll which should him completely tanking? Not impressive.
DeSantis has been as poor at running a Presidential campaign as he has been great at governing a state. It’s time for him to go back to Florida, preserve and build on his legacy there, and try to forget what could have been.
Haley has a realistic path forward, although it’s very narrow. She’s running strong in New Hampshire and at least has a small chance to upset Trump there. I grant you that her strength there is partly due to Democrats crossing over. So be it. Despite her multiple gaffes, she’s the last shot for Republicans who do not want to see Trump get the nomination. Count me as one of them. And she polls incredibly well against Slo Joe.
I know, I know: many caveats. The MSM has gone relatively easy on her. Were she actually to get the nomination, they would tear into her in every way imaginable. Is she up for that? I don’t know. Beating Trump would also cause a major schism within the party, even if Trump (highly, highly unexpectedly) graciously conceded to her and offered his sincere and unconditional support. Could she mend that schism, at least enough to win the Presidency in the fall? That’s anyone’s guess.
But, this is where we are at. Haley is the only impediment to a Trump nomination. I don’t want Trump nominated and Haley, for all her faults and limitations (and there are many) is acceptable to me. I wish her well and will hope for a pleasant surprise in the Granite State next week.
Re: Haley / Desantis:
According to Ace reporting on a poll, 40+% of Haley’s causcusers (??) will vote Biden. And people like Bill Krystol (spit!) were encouraging (D) to vote for her (Operation Chaos style).
I dunno, I think her appeal is selective, and does not go to 11.
Went to the mailbox today and there they were… again. Multiple vote for Nikki thingies. Seems any thinking person would question where the money is coming from and why.
Drew a line through her name a long time ago.
Big picture, why bother even talking about or following this stuff. Where is the conversation about the ballot printing presses? Why do the R’s act like things are normal?
I do believe all is lost and will not be addressed in my lifetime (not much left). My grand kids are in for quite a ride, I suspect.
Someone mentioned the possibility of Tulsi Gabbard as Trump’s VP, and now I’m excited about that. I think they would be a great team.
I’m psyched about Vivek going on the campaign trail with Trump. He is so articulate, and great with people. I think he does want a cabinet position, but I think he is also sincere about wanting to help save the republic.
JD Keene:
The Republicans are actually trying to address some of the problems with voting. It’s not easy, especially in states that aren’t Republican to begin with. But it’s often the case that people who are unaware of those efforts think there are no such efforts.
For example, see this for something the GOP is trying to do to further election security.
In this post, I wondered who is funding Nikki.
Sarah Rolph:
I like Gabbard, who seems brave and forthright to me. However, even though she left the Democrats, she still supports a lot of their policies and I don’t think that would be a good fit with Trump.
Some people say Kristi Noem.
Shes a little stalky haley is. Gabbard seems as sensible as a samoan buddhist can be
Tulsi Gabbard as VP would be very interesting, as would Vivek as Press Secretary.
If Ramaswamy wants to pursue politics he should:
Work to raise money and help others get elected
Run for lower office (two years in the US House would be good)
Run for governor (show he can manage a s***show because all states are s***shows)
Build support in the party from people that owe him.
Try again.
Kristi Noem continues to actively angle for the VP slot, despite the Lewandowski scandal. She also has the baggage of vetoing a transgender sports ban, which irritated many social conservatives. Still, she might be a decent pick for Trump
If on the off chance Haley gets the nomination, I’m guessing she’ll select Sununu. Or, he’ll be chief of staff (like his dad was) or have a top cabinet position.
Trump said nice things about Doug Burgum in his speech last night. So, that puts another possible name in the VP slot.
Noem and Gabbard are intriguing. However, Noem has been accused of having an affair with Corey Lewandowski. Don’t know if that’s true, but it would allow the media to smear her pretty quickly.
Gabbard has at least served in the military. She sounds like a conservative when she comes on Fox, but who knows if she’s come completely over to the right side.
Burgum, Noem, and Gabbard don’t add many votes to the mix, They’re all from small states. Trump has said he knows who he’s going to pick. So, we can guess all we want to, apparently his mind is made up.
I like DeSantis, Trump, and Vivek in that order. Would vote for any of them. Haley is a distant fourth for me. That said, if she somehow got the nomination, I would vote for her over Biden, Newsome, Michelle, or ????? A RINO is still far, far better than any Democrat imaginable. We Republicans have to get behind our nominee even if he/she is not our first choice.
If the people I know are any indication, Vivek’s voters will go to Trump.
And put him that much farther ahead of De Santis – a great governor – and Haley – not a great governor – and a warmonger to boot.
Much, if not most, of Haley’s money is coming from Democrats. The billionaire founder of Linked In is one example: Reid Hoffman, visitor to Epstein Island and the under-writer of the Jean Carroll lawsuit against Trump.
And in New Hampshire, there is a movement to utilize the open primary to flood Haley’s candidacy with Democrat votes, as was proposed in Iowa, but which obviously didn’t amount to much. We shall see.
Tucker Carlson talked about this on his episode today. I guess his take is that Democrats and the GOPe want to bleed Trump and have Nikki ready if he isn’t driven off the ballot by Lawfare.
I’m rather unimpressed with so called efforts to secure our voting processes. First, they trumpet “efforts” that quite often never get passed or implemented. Second, mail-in voting can’t really be secured. It needs to be largely or entirely eliminated. Thirdly, most illegal immigrants who have some sort of residence and employment have fake ID’s. I’ve seen articles that claim to establish that as fact, though I’m suspicious of everything I read these days.
DeSantis and Haley will stay in the race? But there’s no path to make it worthwhile for them. (No doubt many donors disagree.)
Pollster Rasmussen now avers that it’s over, Trump’s already won the nom.
It looks like the November vote will be on the Corrupt Potato head versus a MAGA agenda.
TommyJay:
But they are accused of not even trying to fix it, and they have tried but it is inherently difficult. First of all, it’s not at all clear that it can be done on a federal level without an amendment; otherwise it is state by state. And the state has to be solidly red to be able to pass such legislation and get it past a possible veto by a governor. Plus, it has to succeed against challenges in the courts, and that depends on the judges. And yet many people criticize the GOP for not making the effort when they have made the effort. It can’t be done by magic.
TJ:
I have already explained why they would stay in the race even without a path to win. But here’s a fuller discussion of why they should.
Neo:
I want to thank you for the work you do in running this site. It must be exasperating having to repeat the same points over and over, such as above. Heck, it’s exasperating having to *read* the same baseless accusations over and over again. So while I appreciate your wisdom and clarity of thought, I think most of all I admire your patience and perseverance.
Anyway, while I don’t comment here all that much, I’ve been a regular reader for at least 15 years now, and I just had to get that off my chest. Thanks.
Cicero, I fully understand. As I said, the Democrats and the Media (but I repeat myself) have helped Trump suck the oxygen from other campaigns.
For those ready to anoint Trump now, I note that Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016 in a more wide open race. Mike Huckabee won Iowa with nearly a 10% margin in 2008.
I have a lingering, but faltering, trust that the electorate will sharpen its focus on issues, leadership ability, and willingness to unite rather than divide at some point. Hopefully, not in hindsight.
I am also fully confident that Trump is capable of shooting himself in the foot between now and the Convention. The time must surely come when he has to face his opponents in some form of debate, rather than throw school yard insults at them from his remote, self anointed lofty perch. He has referred to the outstanding governor, and actual volunteer Iraq veteran (unlike himself with his multiple draft deferments) who has the temerity to oppose him as ‘DeSanctimonious’. Should he lash out in such fashion on a national stage, some might worry that there is evidence of a character flaw.
Nikki demonstrated her ability to attract Demorat voters. Ah well she’s toast. She can hope for a job with MSNBC or CNN and sit at a table with McConnell, Ryan, and Chenney.
Let me append the Disney version of The Caucus Race:
_________________________________
Forward, backward, inward, outward
Come and join the chase!
Nothing could be drier
Than a jolly caucus-race!
Backward, forward, outward, inward
Bottom to the top,
Never a beginning,
There can never be a stop!
–“Alice in Wonderland — The Caucus Race”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgDHGjmTyAw
_________________________________
I only saw the movie once, but I had the soundtrack and I played it over and over… This song was particularly vivid.
you remember the debates when wallace and welker ran interference for biden on everything, and the press said in unison, it is good, I fear a ‘hard rain gonna fall’ either the brickell or the dylan classic cut, because we let a lie be manifest, from China, from Iran, maybe from Al Queda, who Shambling has revitalized their middle management, who knows
https://twitter.com/paulsperry_/status/1747465959026159734
I am still seeing “he can save us”. Trump is one man against an entire culture against him. Media, arts, government drones, universities, “elites”, are against Trump. The Republicans, at least in Michigan and Indiana don’t exist. The fracturing of the Republican Party is pretty pronounced. If a Republican wins the election they will still face a formidable task.
Biden will be nominated and then for some reason drop out before the speech.. The DNC will then pick the nominee and that changes everything and then the Dems win easily. It wont be Kamala or Michelle but will be someone the DNC can control. It will be a woman, like one of the ex governors. Lets see who gets air time during the primaries. It is already planned.
“I have a lingering, but faltering, trust that the electorate will sharpen its focus on issues, leadership ability, and willingness to unite rather than divide at some point. Hopefully, not in hindsight.”
I think Trump did a good job leading the American People as a whole and a horrid job leading the public employees. He did make terrible personnel choices, worse than Austin, Majorkis, Granholm, and Garland (hmm, not helping Biden much here).
The legislative and executive senior spots are corrupted by perverse incentives (which tend to attract perverse people). Ideally, we’d need to pare back .gov to make it less lucrative for the Pelosi / Biden / Cheney grifters, and Clinton / Trump sociopaths.
“ After all, I don’t think Trump would be influenced when picking his running mate, whom I believe will come…” It should be “who I believe will come…” Using “whom” is the grammatical equivalent of writing “I believe him will come…,” etc.
Like some people say sometimes, “You have to prove it everyday.” Trump has shown that he can be a good president — the best of this century so far. But he has to continually prove that he’s focused, competent, and effective, or people will forget it. He doesn’t seem to realize that, but thinks he can coast on his past achievements and win by just being himself.
I’ve heard Noem mentioned, but she seems weak.
Neo’s points about Gabbard are good ones, but if you check out her twitter feed it’s very, very pro-Trump lately.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he chose Elise Stefanik. She’s very strong and has been loyal.
kris:
you left Buttigieg off your list of terrible Biden Cabinet members. As a group Biden’s cabinet is as feckless, stupid, and, likely corrupt, just as Slow Joe is.
Trump is being horriblypersecuted by Democrats such as the NY State AG, Merrick Garland and the entire Department of InJustice, and Fani Willis. There is no human more disagreeable than an ignorant, biased hot-headed Democratic female, in my experience, escept communists, which Democrats have become.
Trump’s persecution will take its toll, the object of the exercise. To me and to Floridians, DeSantis is a superb governor who will be a superb president. The drones just cannot see that, because they consume MSM garbage.
Sarah Rolph:
Stefanik is very smart.
Even if Trump were to somehow regain the presidency, a Democrat House of Representatives would start impeachment proceedings the following day. Little to nothing would ever get accomplished.
They want to keep destroying this country thats the point oh i mean fundamentally transforming the same thing
Do they think that if biden were sharper they would do bettet
Haley has a realistic path forward, although it’s very narrow. She’s running strong in New Hampshire and at least has a small chance to upset Trump there.
Regardless of how she does in NH she has no chance. There is no path forward. A win in one minor state can’t change that.
I keep reading that Trump set some sort of record, getting the “largest margin of victory at the caucuses, surpassing Dole’s hold of 18% in ’96 (Trump was up nearly 30% compared to the next candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis).” But that’s an absurd comparison. There’s no equivalent to 2024 and Trump for two simple reasons. The first is that usually there are more candidates at this point, . . . The second and probably far more important reason is that Trump is close to the position of being an incumbent. He is a former president with a record of accomplishment that has earned the loyalty of his supporters, who are very very loyal indeed. To compare him to other candidates in previous years is a poor analogy.
But the basic point is that Trump IS running as the incumbent. Hence why so few candidates. Hence why he’s setting a record.
Biden is trying to run as one. Hence why DNC etc., are trying to kneecap those trying to primary him. Old Joe is nothing but a facade, they are trying to make him appear as an actual POTUS.
This isn’t a normal election.
batemjo on January 17, 2024 at 3:15 pm said:
Even if Trump were to somehow regain the presidency, a Democrat House of Representatives would start impeachment proceedings the following day. Little to nothing would ever get accomplished.
If he wins he will almost certainly have a Republican House. Although last time that House did little to further any type of Republican agenda.
Also, at this point he could largely ignore any impeachment type events I think. Democrats have been throwing so much stuff no one cares anymore.
Oldflyer on January 16, 2024 at 10:18 pm said:
For those ready to anoint Trump now, I note that Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016 in a more wide open race.
Why isn’t this race “wide open”?
Don:
Because Trump is essentially an incumbent, or at least a quasi-incumbent.
And that is NOT the point being made by most of those saying Trump set a record, because for the most part they don’t point out the incumbency angle in connection with the record.
batemjo; Don:
Impeachment is now a big yawn. Unless there’s a conviction in the Senate, hardly anybody cares anymore. And I don’t see how there would be a conviction in the Senate.
Many things can be accomplished without Congress. Executive action – and especially regarding immigration and foreign policy.
Neo,
Well, he’s not technically an incumbent.
But he was the last Republican POTUS and people are treating him as if he was one, and he has that record to run on. If he lost in 2016 it would be different, we would have had a wide field and the outcome would be up for grabs.
So yeah, it isn’t explicit that he’s an incumbent, but it essentially amounts to the same thing.
And as far as impeachment: any claims against Trump are a big yawn now. In 2017 I was paying attention to the details on Russian collusion, and for awhile was worried thee might be substance to them. Now I just assume everything it is all lies.
Don: “If he wins he will almost certainly have a Republican House.”
I agree he will probably be able to suck quite a few R’s along on his coattails if he is the winner. And there is a good chance most of those winners will have claimed to be in sync with the MAGA agenda. That is probably the way to bet. But some of them may not really have their heart (or district) in it.
Neo: “Many things can be accomplished without Congress.” Our past Dem presidents have shown a lot of trouble can be caused by EO’s and even foreign adventures; but you have already stated it will take Congress to make something substantial enough to go beyond 4 years; or to possibly reverse the Leftist rachet. I wonder how many EO’s have been implemented for so long that people think that is the “tradition” of how things are done and don’t even realize those practices can be swept away with a new signature. And on that basis we still have the (probably unconstitutional) abomination of Federal judges delaying or “canceling” even the repeal/ rescinding of EO’s that otherwise have no force of law.
The President elected is important, but maybe not as important as the “right” congress. My R rep is solidly conservative, but he is not a member of the Freedom Caucus, and thus he could end up being just a “go along to get along” kind of rep. I think we will need a bigger Freedom Caucus than we have right now. Maybe Trump or DeSantis can help that happen.