Why did the hostage deals end?
I can only guess at an answer to that question, but I think it’s not just as simple as “Hamas broke the agreement and Israel got fed up.” Those things are true, but I’ve noticed a few more that might be playing into the decision.
One is the Hamas announcement – perhaps true, perhaps false – that the two Bibas children and their mother died while in captivity. One of those children was the youngest hostage of all, a ten-month-old baby, and the other was (is?) all of four. Israel has also confirmed the deaths of four other hostages while in captivity:
The kibbutz named them as Aryeh Zalmanovich, 85, the oldest of the 240 people kidnapped by Hamas, Maya Goren, 56, a legendary kindergarten teacher in the community, and Ronen Engel, 54, whose wife and two daughters were returned to Israel earlier this week after being abducted alongside him.
The Israel Defense Forces later confirmed their deaths, along with that of fellow Nir Oz resident Eliyahu Margalit, 75, whose daughter was released from Hamas captivity on Thursday.
Another death in captivity was this one. And a suspected hostage death is also this. Israel is mum so far on how these deaths have been “confirmed.” It could be through intelligence obtained from Gazan sources, or it could be through reports from the released hostages. We simply don’t know. Nor do we know how they died – although Hamas will of course claim Israeli airstrikes, their all-purpose excuse.
There was also this curious statement from a Hamas leader:
They don’t know the number; the number is not important, according to this vile person. That can be interpreted in quite a few ways, but one that occurs to me is that more of the hostages have died in captivity and Hamas doesn’t want to disclose that fact, or how many, because it would harden Israel’s resolve still further, and might even cause Biden/Blinken to support that hardening. Dead hostages are still worth something to Hamas – Israel and the families want the remains in order to properly bury them, and Hamas can keep trying to claim that the hostages were actually killed by Israel. But there is no question in my mind that living hostages are much more valuable to Hamas.
However, if a significant number of hostages have already died, that could be one of the reasons Hamas violated the terms of the deal: they may have wanted the deal to end, rather than explain they couldn’t hand over these particular living hostages because they are actually no longer alive. Hamas may have decided they’ve milked what they can from the deals. And Israel may know more about this than it’s letting on – although the additional deaths can’t be confirmed, they may be suspected, in part based on the testimony of the returned hostages.
NOTE: One thing that’s been clear for quite some time, though, is that the hostages are not being kept in a centralized place, and that they’re not even all being held by Hamas. The numbers do matter, but they are Israeli guesswork to a certain extent.
The longer they are in captivity, the lower the chance of release.
At some point, Israel will have a hard choice to make: their reputation in the world or their soul. Truth to tell, I counsel they look after themselves, the world isn’t going to.
One can go back to judges 1 to see what needs to be done
Things disappear. People disappear. Evidence disappears.
It happens.
The only law of war items that tangentially bear upon this is to consider those “hostages” as “detained persons”. Hamas’ failure to properly control and protect these detained persons is another war crime, one for each person.
I go with more hostages are dead and Hamas doesn’t want to say that just yet. And yes all were killed by Israeli’s, you betcha.
I have thought since day 1 Oct 7 that many hostages would be raped, tortured and murdered and so even remains would never be recovered.
Reading and seeing video this week confirmed my fears
Hostages to Hamas are a perishable commodity. I think their strategy was (and is?) to extract maximum net value from each unit of trade, and then move on. The net value is the sum of (1) prisoners in Israel released in exchange for a hostage plus (2) reputational gain to Hamas (and the Palestinian/Shiite terror business generally) from each exchange plus (3) reputational cost to Israel from the exchange (and the humiliation of recognizing Hamas’ bargaining power) plus (4) military cost to Israel from lost momentum, foreclosed options, likely increase in casualties, delays in ultimate military resolution. Something like that.
And in light of the foregoing, I think Hamas decided it had gotten most of what it would ever get, and will now shift to much more propaganda/informational warfare using the trope of “Innocent victims of blind vindictive overkill.” Expect lots more pics of sad-eyed children lining up for meager rations among crushed buildings.
Hmmm. I wonder how much work has been done on a poison-in-a-time-capsule delivery system?
Seems like one thing for the Israelis to do is to produce something like that, then slip it in on the terrorists before they hand them back.
Be especially cute if it could be done so as to mimic other causes of death. 😀
I have mixed feelings about Schwarzenegger, but good on Arnie:
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Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Friday met relatives of three people seized by Hamas in Israel and now held in Gaza, lending his celebrity to support those whose loved ones are still unaccounted for following the Oct. 7 attack.
Schwarzenegger gave bronze eagle sculptures to his visitors at a video production company in Santa Monica, just west of Los Angeles. In turn they presented Schwarzenegger with “Bring Them Home” dog tags.
Declaring himself “a big friend of the Jewish people and Israel,” Schwarzenegger said he wanted to amplify the message not to abandon those who remain captive.
https://www.reuters.com/world/schwarzenegger-lends-support-families-israeli-hostages-2023-12-02/
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I think the Hamas Oct 7 terror attacks are fracturing Western support. It’s a shame of course that Hamas has any support.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjgwdbuha#autoplay
Hamas is not a unified army nor government. They are terrorists who act mostly in the preferred direction of the leadership. So there are units who act independently and you get a break in the ceasefire. Totally expected. If Israel did not know this would happen, I would be very surprised. The question no one is asking yet: Is Netanyahu prepared to tell the hostage families they are expendable in pursuit of Hamas dalenda est.
“Is Netanyahu prepared to tell the hostage families they are expendable in pursuit of Hamas dalenda est.”
It wasn’t just the break in the ceasefire, it was also that they were not returning more hostages, including women and children. I see three possibilities: (1) as you suggest, they don’t have those hostages; (2) those hostages are dead; (3) those hostages have been so brutalized that to return them would be very bad PR.
But regardless, the resumption of the war is not making the hostages expendable. It is perhaps the only slim hope of getting them back, since they were not being released in accord with the ceasefire.
If IDF gets close to the hostages they will be killed. They are already brutalized. What’s a little death to barbarians? Thinking that attacking Hamas may save some lives is pretending. Israelis need to face the truth.
Jack Wayne:
It depends how much intelligence the Israelis have gained about their whereabouts. You may recall that weeks ago, one hostage was rescued. The Israelis have given no details of how.
I think Jimmy hit the nail on the head. I doubt that hostages that have been brutalized will be released. They are worth more to Hamas dead at this point, as their deaths can be blamed on Israeli airstrikes. On the other hand, releasing them is akin to admitting to whatever torture they have endured.
I am still gobsmacked by the pro-Hamas sentiment in the US. They are brutal monsters.
“They don’t know the number; the number is not important, according to this vile person.”
He’s no longer a ‘person’, in his hate he has abandoned his humanity. It has made itself into a thing without a soul.
JackWayne makes a valid point; the “leadership” of Hamas may not actually have as much control over their own people as they like to believe or pretend. They may not be able to hold up their end of the deal. From their POV, violating the terms might be preferable to admitting that they can’t actually keep them.
Hamas is evil, Satanic. The remaining hostages, if alive, should be considered sacrificial, so IDF can kill every Hamas member and all members of their families. Gaza should be totally destroyed. And never rebuilt. The disgusting UN can shoulder that burden of resettlement. Maybe in Brazil’s depths?
Do you not note the spread of anti-semitism in the West? At Harvard, at MIT? In violation of the Judeo-Christian mindset of Peace?
I believe Neo is in Boston or nearby.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/12/winkin_blinken_and_nod.html
we never learn any lessons
https://twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1731167465504166350
the “leadership” of Hamas may not actually have as much control over their own people as they like to believe or pretend.
Also, it’s not just “their own people.” Apparently Islamic Jihad is involved and may have some of the hostages.
that was al arian’s group, he was an academic ansar, helper and enabler,
Having witneslsed Eeropleans begging forgiveness from their rapists I’m surprised at nothing
During WWII defensive armament was barred from shooting down one’s own plane. You couldn’t shoot the tail off your Avenger even it you wanted to.
How did we get so stupid as this, Neo?
MEMO
TO: Isreal
Subject: Hamas
KILL THEM ALL.
That is all.
I’m pretty hardened to death. I’ve been killing my own Thanksgiving dinner since I was 11. I have questions Hamas
Arranged. What a high velocity rifle round does to the human head is obscure. I have questions
White Feather schooled me
I hate autocorrect. obscene isn’t obscure.
Bill in Tennessee:
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Kennedy [John F. Kennedy — then (1943) a junior officer in the US Navy] ready to disembark after more than a month at sea, was standing at the rail off Tulagi, reflecting on a large billboard that Admiral Halsey had ordered to be erected on the commanding hillside. The message fairly screamed at Kennedy and other newcomers —
KILL JAPS! KILL JAPS! KILL MORE JAPS!
You will help to kill the yellow bastards
if you do your job well
–Robert J. Donovan, “PT 109 – The Wartime Adventures of President John F. Kennedy”
https://www.angelfire.com/fm/odyssey/Halsey.htm
_____________________________
I remember that book. I don’t know I would read it so credulously today. Nonetheless, sometimes with some enemies such cold-bloodedness is necessary.
Take a look at that photo of Halsey at the link and you know he meant it.
Ah, yes those dead white military aviation pioneers figured out that shooting off your own propeller, rudder, or horizontal stabilizer was not a survivable means of combat. So engineers and clever men had to make that unlikely by design and mechanical contrivance. It’s still a design consideration with jet-powered warplanes.
I think he was being rhetorical, look at the people at every level of our apparat, does any of them, seem adequate not to mention up to the job,
https://twitter.com/donsurber/status/1731416365234344259
Bauxite:
I agree entirely: the amount of Hamas sympathy in the US is stunning and depressing. Some of it is perhaps paid for, but a lot of it is someone’s genuine feelings. Ugh.
@ Miguel’s link to Oilfield Rando’s tweet: “Blood and treasure sacrificed for two decades in the Global War on Terror and this is how American cities ended up”
We were never fighting to win.
OK, so what are the chances that the numbers that Hamas (Inc.) has been spreading around are totally bogus?
(Their reputation for honesty, accountability and accuracy—when it comes to reporting casualties—isn’t exactly, um, stellar…)
And BTW, how many of those thousands of casualties are fighters?
IOW, what’s the breakdown?
Do they bother to tell us? (And if they did bother, would they be believable?)
Does anyone know?
Does anyone care?
Is it important?
Or are just the bogus numbers important?
Etc.
Poor representative that I am. I suck.
I don’t want to come across as a false positive
“We were never fighting to win.”
That might be true.
But it might be more accurate to say that “winning” was never well defined—if it was defined at all….
But even if “that might [have been] true”, it was no longer true from 2009 onward (except for a brief, hopeful respite from 2017-2020; but even then, the Deep State did its best to keep the lights dampened).
From that point on, it was “Transformation or Bust”.
(What those Best ‘n Brightest Bast**ds DID NOT tell you is:
“Transformation” = “Bust”…)
Dunno Steve, you always seemed like a true positive to me….
But speaking of false….
…here’s the story of the coup behind the coup behind the Coup…
(or alternately, the coverup of the coverup of the coverup…well, just one of many coverups, mind you…).
“A WHITE COAT SUPREMACY READER”—
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/a-white-coat-supremacy-reader.php
Think of it as a How-To book (DIY?) on how to defenestrate an entire nation (or much of the globe for that matter….)
The question no one is asking yet: Is Netanyahu prepared to tell the hostage families they are expendable in pursuit of Hamas dalenda est.
They are hostages, ripped from what they thought was safety during a blitzkrieg massacre and brought to Gaza to be used physically and emotionally as tools of jihadists. Everything that has happened to them and will happen to them is the fault of the jihadists.
No one else.
Netanyahu may – probably will – pay a political price related to the deaths of any of them, but more because of the deaths of those killed on Oct. 7 that he “should have” prevented (in quotes because maybe it would have been possible, if just the right voices had been heeded beforehand, but boy am I glad it wasn’t my job to figure out which voices were the right ones). But if more hostages are killed, it will still be 100% because jihadists took them as hostages.
“After claiming Israel has no right to defend itself against Hamas, Francesca Albanese criticizes Dennis Ross for saying Hamas should release its hostages.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/381464