More shocking details on Israel’s intelligence failures prior to October 7
I wrote a post about the topic yesterday. That post described a situation that was bad enough and shocking enough in terms of the Israeli failure to heed detailed and fact-based warnings of the imminence of a large-scale Hamas attack, warnings which were dismissed as “fantasy” by the higher-ups.
But this Caroline Glick article reveals that the situation was even worse than that:
The Field Observers unit at Nahal Oz base suffered the greatest losses there during Hamas’s assault. The unit, comprising female soldiers, is responsible for monitoring the footage from security cameras along the Gaza border around the clock and alerting forces on the ground and in the intelligence community to anything suspicious.
Seventeen observers were killed on Oct. 7. Seven were taken hostage. One, Naama Levy, was videoed barefoot, being dragged from the trunk of a vehicle by her hair and pushed into the back seat. Her hands were zip-tied behind her back. The seat of her sweatpants was stained with blood, indicating she had been raped violently. …
Days after their friends were slaughtered, raped and kidnapped, the two surviving members of the unit and a number of former members started coming forward to tell their story. In interviews with Channel 11, two women related that in the months before the invasion, they were warning it was in the works. The women saw Hamas terrorists training to take over kibbutzim and IDF bases. They watched terrorists practicing taking hostages and blowing up tanks. They saw terror commanders watching the drills. They saw spies probing the fence for weaknesses. They saw it all and reported it all.
So it was the same group who had reported the terrorist buildup and been ignored, that bore the brunt of Hamas violence.
More:
Rather than giving them medals, unnamed top-level officers in the intelligence corps ordered them to stop. When they continued reporting, the observers were warned that they would be disciplined and removed from the unit if they kept raising their concerns.
There’s also more in the Glick article on the information provided by the NCO mentioned in yesterday’s post of mine [emphasis mine]:
In a series of three, increasingly detailed and urgent reports over succeeding months, the NCO set out in granular detail how Hamas was preparing a broad invasion of Israel that included the invasion of IDF bases, border towns and kibbutzim. Her reports included all aspects of the invasion that took place on Oct. 7, including Hamas’s use of paragliders, pick-up trucks and motorcycles. She detailed Hamas’s plans to massacre and kidnap civilians and soldiers. She warned that their intention was to use provocations along the security fence in the weeks leading up to the operation
Some of this was relayed to Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Directorate Chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, who dismissed it.
This is incompetence on a massive scale. And “incompetence” is really too mild a word for it.
Israeli intel has an infestation of domestic zips in the wire who pose a greater threat than any external enemy. Dealing with them should be the top priority.
Once the dust settles from this conflict I hope a bunch of “Intelligence” Corps people are held accountable. This Major General Aharon Haliva person should lose his job at minimum.
If they were being told to stop reporting, then whoever did that should be tried for whatever the equivalent of Treason is . It is one thing to dismiss a report as inconsequential. It is another thing entirely to stop the reporting from going up the chain of command. If something even looks suspicious, it should be reported, even if the official assessment by the writer of the report is that information is probably inconsequential.
When I was in the Balkans, each patrol wrote a report. Then Battalion had to do an Intel summary, which was passed up to Brigade. Brigade then did an Intel summary, which was then passed up to the next eschelon.
The revelations are shocking and depressing. Did some higher ups in the Israeli military want this to happen? Shades of FDR ignoring intelligence on Pearl Harbor? If so, was the intent to harm Netanyahu? If so, that is scandalous. Just as with 9/11, it appears that the terrorists wanted to strike on a significant date, in this case the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur surprise attack, another incident where there was plenty of intelligence that was not acted on. And to show how history rhymes, back in 1973 the US put constraints on Israel’s ability to respond to Egypt under the direction of – Henry Kissinger! The more you think about it it is amazing that Israel survived this long. I fear that it may not survive the current strains. Will the US be far behind?
One feature of/about intelligence failures is that only the really spectacular ones are known about, because there is little interest outside the intel community. And the really big ones can’t be hidden.
On the other hand, though, intelligence successes, there, it’s only the unspectacular ones that most know/learn about. The really big ones usually are kept under wraps because they would reveal sources or methods that are best kept quiet for future applications.
}}} Shades of FDR ignoring intelligence on Pearl Harbor?
The difference, here, is, it may well have been somewhat intentional on FDR’s part, as he did — correctly, I note — need to get the isolationist US into the war. And it is strangely convenient that all the carriers were out of port that day, which was of truly massive significance in what followed. Just the presence of one extra carrier at Midway made a massive difference in that battle, as she’d been damaged at Coral Sea and was believed “out of action”, but had not been as badly damaged as was believed and wound up back in service in time for Midway. Result: The Japanese had massive losses thanks to a little luck in timing and about half again as many planes… Midway was the beginning of the end for Japan. Long before it was the beginning of the end for Germany.
“If so, was the intent to harm Netanyahu?”
Remember what’s been going on in Israel for the last how many years?
Vast leftwing protests and topple-Netanyahu movements.
How does that factor in?
Yet another example of Robert Conquest’s Third Law of Politics:
I have lost count of how many times I have recently heard of circumstances that prove Conquest’s observation prophetic. What surprises me about the Israeli situation is that such behavior should occur at all when a country is facing an existential threat.
T:
The military leaders had been lulled into a false assumption that the threat was not existential.
Why does this stupid FDR Pearl Harbor BS not die? It was not strangely convenient that Enterprise was not at PH. She was due back to PH from her Midway trip on Saturday night and was delayed by weather. A bunch of her aircraft flew smack into the attack on their way to Ford Island. On her way out on her mission to deliver Marine Fighters to Wake, she flew the first USN Combat Air Patrols in WW2 in case of Japanese attack.
The Far East Air Force had also started flying dawn CAP in the Philippines after suspected Japanese weather reconnaissance aircraft were detected by radar days before PH. They had even attempted a Ground Controlled Interception hours before the attack.
I mention flowers for mother the roman a clef about angleton who was the most avowedly pro israel, who discovered the egyptians buying high pressure water hoses to
The military leaders had been lulled into a false assumption that the threat was not existential. [Neo]
I guess much the same way as the high command in the U.S. believes that the war against pronouns is more important than readiness for an actual war.
O sullivans law also works see also black cube which spymaster
I have feared the worse about the female hostages and ones murdered.
It’s done well that on a forum with military history every week there is a weekly Women Warriors put up by a fellow member. Every week IDF women play a good portion and get lots of votes of the best looking women. All pictures are well done, often look like publicity photos or many IDF in uniform look like selfies.
Let’s not forget the intelligence failures here in the years leading up to 9/11. These were covered up by the phony 9/11 commission, but the “wall” between different agencies prevented action on what some knew was going on. Jamie Gorelick was one of the key villains, John O’Neill a hero who tried to convey what he knew about the plot but was stymied.
Some of this was in the 2-part film “The Path to 9-11” that was also suppressed. Many of the principals (Clinton, Richard Clarke, the 9-11 Commission itself) nitpicked about inaccuracies, but I think the film got the essence of the story.
Jimmy:
The 911 failures were nowhere near as bad as this.
Gothamite and ObloodyHell,
Stop with the “FDR knew about Pearl Harbor” garbage. US intelligence had an idea that the Japanese were going to do something on December 7, 1941. They did not know what or where, so there was nothing they could do except issue an alert, which they had done a few weeks earlier. In fact, by that time, by the time the first bombs were falling on Pearl Harbor, the Pacific War had been going on for about 8 hours in the South China Sea.
The American analogue to Aharon Haliva would be Douglas MacArthur. MacArthur had loudly proclaimed that the Japanese would not attack until Spring of 1942, when his new Philippine army would be ready. When intelligence started coming in that Japan was preparing for war much sooner, MacArthur willfully ignored that intelligence and even tried to block US forces in the Philippines from gathering more.
Immediately after Pearl Harbor, MacArthur was ordered to attack Japanese bases on Formosa. Instead, he disappeared for several hours; speculation has been that he had a nervous breakdown. His staff blocked any attack, likely trying to buy time for MacArthur to get himself together. By the time he did so, the Japanese were attacking Clark Field and destroying the Far East Air Force.
Miguel: that’s “Orchids for Mother” by Aaron Latham (author of the article that was the basis for the movie “Urban Cowboy”, late husband of Lesley Stahl). I read the novel years ago and had forgotten about the Suez Canal episode.
A appreciate that the Field Observers’ Unit gave warnings that were ignored and dismissed. That is a scandal of epic proportions and guilty parties should be punished. But what about October 7 itself? Did the Field Observers not observe the enemy that day? Were they unable to report what they saw? Please don’t tell me they were unarmed. Any members of the military along a dangerous border should surely be armed.
Yes that one, it would have made for a great comic caper like hopskotch, latham also refers to said in all but name
The 911 failures were nowhere near as bad as this.
I’m not sure I agree. Consider just this, for example (from Wikipedia on the Comission):
Of course there’s much more, like the fact that a bunch of these guys were taking flying lessons. But the point isn’t which was worse. Both were catastrophic, yet no one was held to account for the 911 failures. Jamie Gorelick, arguably the architect, or at least the enforcer, of the infamous wall between intelligence and criminal investigators, was on the damn Commission.
They were the first to be struck
“Why does this stupid FDR Pearl Harbor BS not die”
Conspiracy theories never die. 1000 years from now, no one will remember the Great Depression and New Deal. But they’ll still claim that FDR knew about Pearl Harbor beforehand. :p
“Did the Field Observers not observe the enemy that day?”
I don’t know about the field observers specifically. But there was apparently widespread jamming that made it impossible to get alerts sent out and orders dispatched. Any military units that deployed had to do so trusting that they would blunder into the enemy.
I didn’t mean to stir the pot on Pearl Harbor. I was trying to use the claims as an analogy to analyze the report on Israel’s failure. And I know that there are already scores of conspiracy theories circulating on the current Gaza situation, including those that claim Israel engaged in false flag operations to justify a pre-planned operation to clear the entire territory.
Accepting Caroline Glick’s point that Haliva must go, now, the charitable interpretation is that he, like others, was lulled by the accumulation of evidence of less attacks prior to 10/7 and furthermore, and wanted to believe the best.
Regardless of whoever’s heads will roll on review, the major result will be a hardening of the majority Israeli view on Hamas in particular and the Palestinians in general.
Hence I don’t believe Netanyahu nor any subsequent leader will cave at this point to anything short of Hamas annihilation, regardless of what Blinken or anyone else outside of Israel says. It’s too painful to stop now. And that onward march to victory is more important than the internal shakeup, even though needed.
T:
The military leaders had been lulled into a false assumption that the threat was not existential.
You base that statement on what?
Lulled? By what? By who?
I beg to difer.
I find the magnitude of this “intelligence failure” to be completely elective– a choice.
People in positions of enormous authority and responsibiity CHOSE to ignore what was going on in front of them; what was reported to them.
Hundreds died because of that choice.
Their country is at war, and many more will die because of that choice.
Caroline Glick documents that; the NYT appears to agree:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
I still wonder about what effect the campaign against Netanyahu had on the willingness to believe the intelligence.
Yikes
https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1730673739661189360
I would think that if your unit was worried about an imminent attack, and the brass refused to listen to your concerns, the rational response would be to formulate a plan at the unit level to convene on very short notice at a defensible central point, and to ensure that all members of the unit were armed at all times. Of course, I’m not a woman, so maybe what seems rational to me doesn’t seem rational to others.
I hold with Yamamoto, who said that victory won by surprise attack is not so much an occasion of pride for the victors, as of shame for the defeated.
The clip of Naama Levy being dragged around was one of the first things that came out after the invasion. I tried to tell myself at first that that surely couldn’t be blood on her pants, it must be mud. But that didn’t hold up. As far as I can tell no one apart from Hamas knows what’s happened to her since then.
If these stories are true–which they seem to be–about the women who saw what was happening, reported it, were told to shut up, and then were raped, murdered, or taken hostage by the monsters, the “higher-ups” who failed them are utterly and permanently disgraced. They should spend the rest of their lives doing penance and certainly should not hold any kind of respected positions.
These Hamas terrorists, when captured, should be hung upside down so that their heads are fully immersed in a water / pig blood mixture – sort of like water boarding – but instead allowed to drown – upside down.
Then their bodies should be fed to starving pigs.
All of this should be done in the full view of other Hamas prisoners so they can observe and hear the horror that awaits them and experience absolute terror while they await their fate; an horrific nightmare come to life.
Let’s see how they welcome death in this manner.
Hamas terrorists welcome death because they believe that 70 virgins await them in heaven; but not if their method of death is defiled.
Hamas has showed no mercy; murdering babies (!!!!) and children and families. They actually enjoyed this sort of killing and bragged about it.
Their is no form of execution that can be dealt to Hamas terrorists that can be too cruel or too horrific.
“Lulled? By what? By who?” [Lee @ 7:03]
https://nypost.com/2023/10/09/israels-intelligence-failure-is-a-warning-for-americas-politicized-agencies
“I find the magnitude of this “intelligence failure” to be completely elective– a choice.” [Lee @ &:03]
IMO to be seduced/lulled and to make a choice are not mutually exclusive.
Hamas supporters (I see on X) are sure that the Israeli intelligence failure was intentional, not to embarrass Netanyahu, but an Israeli plan to commit genocide on the Palestinian people. ProPalestinians don’t understand that the death of even a single Israeli is not worth the annihilation of every single person in Gaza. I pointed out that there is more reason to assume that Hamas intended the mass casualties of Gazans because obviously Israel’s military response would be catastrophic. Islam has a doctrine of eternal rewards for martyrs so sacrificing fellow Muslims would not be considered a terrible act. On an emotional level the death of so many Muslims at the hands of Jews would enflame and possibly unite the Muslim world.
I have seen reports that Hamas’s internal security on their operational plans was extremely tight; could the lack of confirming intel have contributed to the IDF’s disbelief of Hamas’s seriousness in their plans? IDK.
Still, so many unanswered questions. Why did the IDF top brass not see the weaknesses of their security measures, and do something about it, why did the IDF take so long to respond on the day of 10/7?
This is sickening to read: military leaders betraying the trust of their own subordinates and the nation they are charged with defending, all to promote, it seems, their own political preferences and to protect the continued existence of their fantasy worlds. It is part of the multiple institutional failures that seem to be happening everywhere, simultaneously, across Western civilization. It’s bad enough in universities, journalism, or even our municipal governments, the Department of Justice and the FBI — but to see the Israeli military — the Israeli military, for pity’s sake, for so long the worldwide epitome of brilliant intelligence and fearless capability — succumb to this rot is enough to make me despair.
There is a certaindegree of incompetence beyond which it is unwise to presume.
Speaking of Jamie Gorelick and the 9-11 failures:
In typical Washington, DC practice, where nobody is ever held accountable for anything – but only if they are demonkrats – Gorelick was:
” Vice Chairman of Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) from 1997 to 2003. She served alongside former Clinton Administration official Franklin Raines. During that period, Fannie Mae developed a $10 billion accounting scandal.”
Presently she is Co-Chair of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, which is part of the executive office of the president of the USA.
I wonder if this council views the open border betwixt Mexico and the USA as a threat to homeland security.
Let me guess; they see no problems whatsoever.
Washington , DC is an open sewer
I imagine the intelligence communities get hundreds of potential attack reports every day. Whether Pearl Harbor, 9/11 or Oct7.
So, easy to say in retrospect they ignored the warnings. However, it seems some of the warnings ignored rise far above the more mundane.
The Oct7 ones, and the 9/11 terrorists taking flying lessons (rumored to have showed little interest in actually landing a plane) being ignored seem particularly egregious.
This Major General Aharon Haliva person should lose his job at minimum.
Committing public seppuku would be more appropriate.
One of Scott Adams’ tenets on how to avoid confirmation bias is to recognize when evidence that supports your hypothesis is a little “too on the nose.” This story seems like a perfect storm of Mossad and IDF intel failures, including being handed a scenario that turned out eerily close to events.
To me, the kicker is that the intel unit was told to stop sending in reports, and members would be punished if they did. This seems to be so far out of line that it rings alarm bells.
The simple thing for Mossad and IDF intel to do would be to simply file the reports and otherwise ignore them. But to order an intel unit to stop sending intel–in real life that screams of sabotage or worse.
With the former, the testimony is that yeah, we got those reports. But we were getting bigger signals from other sources that Hamas was in a training/rebuilding mode.
But when the evidence shows active discouragement, well, ain’t no hand waving that away.
Here’s another proposition: American Jews notoriously ignore the antisemitism of the left, and excuse deadly behavior with “well, Trump would be worse.” Is there any reason to think Israel’s Jews function differently?
Gordon Scott:
I don’t think you understand. The scenario I believe you are advocating – if I understand what you’re suggesting – is very much akin to the scenario of 9/11-truthers. No Israeli government entity would countenance the massacre of Israeli citizens in this way, not for any reason. And Israeli Jews and American Jews are very different.
“I still wonder about what effect the campaign against Netanyahu had on the willingness to believe the intelligence.”
Yes, one might well wonder…especially since the “Democratiya” campaign against Netanyahu was spurred on—not that it needed spurring on—from “Biden” and “his” supporters…
E.g., Gidi Taub’s
“Israel’s Elites Revolt Against Democracy”—
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/israel-elite-revolt-against-democracy
…BUT I ALSO “wonder about what effect [the reliance of Israel on America—and more importantly on American intelligence] had on the willingness to believe the [Israeli] intelligence”…
…seeing that “Biden”‘s strong-arming of the current and previous Israel governments to allow tens of thousands of Gazans to work in Israel—“seeds of peace”, anyone?—TOGETHER WITH Jake Sullivan’s crowing, ONLY NINE DAYS BEFORE before Oct. 7 that “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades”—an obvious putdown and denigration of Trump’s Abraham Accords…and perhaps—PERHAPS—a statement of PURE DECEPTION (though such a conjecture may be OTP on my part)…
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/george-kennan-who-wasnt-jake-sullivan
…TOGETHER WITH American machinations vis-a-vis Iran, and most significantly vis-a-vis Lebanon…
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/america-leaves-israel-eyeless-in-gaza
IOW “a perfect storm” of deception and distraction…especially since Netanyahu was so eager to sign on the dotted line with Saudi Arabia (as though “Biden” would allow Netanyahu to achieve such a coup).
Keeping in mind the following (from 2015—the good ole Obama years…oh, wait…) by “Biden”‘s handmaiden on the Israeli political scene (or at least one of them) AND uber-foolish former Israeli PM:
“A New Strategic Vision for Israel;
“Israeli MK Yair Lapid blames Benjamin Netanyahu for the Jewish State’s failure to have any influence on the Iran deal and for the lack of progress in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”—
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/new-strategic-vision-for-israel
Corrections to the above:
‘…from “Biden” and his supporters…’
should be ‘…by “Biden” and “his” supporters…’
‘…statement of PURE DECEPTION…’
should be ‘…instrument of PURE DECEPTION…’
‘…OTP…’ should be ‘…OTT…’
“…And Israeli Jews and American Jews are very different.”
Well, yes and no.
Things being what they are today—with all its myriad forms of often media-driven and especially social-media-driven insanity and hysteria—the Left wings of both groups would appear, to a large extent, to have converged (certainly the more extreme Left of the both groups…BUT NOT ONLY).
But it must also be acknowledged that the “rank-and-file” Left and Left-of-Center in Israel—EVEN some members of the extreme Left—understand the need to actively defend the country when it is under attack (especially when it’s under existential attack).
This may well be true—generally—of those on the Left in the US, as well, but they have the luxury of “understanding” this from a distance…though it must be said that a not insignificant number has felt the need to come to Israel and assist in this time of dire need.
Nonapod et al, as a self appointed spokesman for the Intel community I can tell you the last thing your political leaders want is Intel. There’s a book called the Quran. It makes them run and hide like scared rabbits in the darkest corners of the basement
Gavin Newsom visited Texas a few years back. Feel free to disbelieve. he wanted to know ostensibly why we left kali start business in Texas. Every time we told him why he responded “no that can’t be it.”
Neo:
My point is that I believe it is farfetched to think Mossad/IDF Intel deliberately ordered the unit to stop reporting what they saw. Such an act would be sabotage, for whatever motive. I’m saying it’s too on the nose. I don’t believe that the HQ people told the reporting unit to stop.
And I wouldn’t ever believe the Israeli government would let an attack happen in order to justify ending Hamas, for the same reason I don’t think FDR knew about Pearl Harbor. These things are too difficult to calibrate. Assuming FDR knew an attack was coming, how could he be sure of when it would happen? Get that wrong and the carriers are in port, and are sunk.
In this scenario, the IDF lets a limited attack happen. But how do you limit it? You just don’t have the ability to calibrate what Hamas does. Too much is at risk.
Why was the response so slow? Why were US planes vulnerable on the ramps in the Philippines hours after they knew of the Pearl Harbor attack? Because key people can’t be reached, and information is fragmentary, and it just takes time to pull everyone in, get geared up and move.
As to the difference between American and Israeli Jews–I don’t know that they are or not, which is why I asked. I know that in Minnesota the Democrat campaigns have long been financed by Minnesota Jews. And one result of that is that when Ilhan Omar was starting out, she got a lot of money from them.
Then, when she would spout her typical views, there was this “well we have to excuse her, she’s just playing to her audience.” And every two years the checkbooks come out, and the cycle repeats. They refuse to take her at her word.
One of the first themes that came out after 10/7 was that Israeli elites believed that Hamas had mellowed and that the rhetoric was now just playing to the crowd. And apparently Hamas played to that.
So, that’s why I asked. It looks like the same suicidal embrace of people who have sworn to kill you.
It’s one thing for Higher to ignore/blow off/interpret as most congenial to the status quo incoming intel.
It’s quite another to tell the line guys to stop sending it.
Among other things, if you really want to go nowhere with it, ignore it. It will be under your desk when things go sideways, but you’ll have an excuse.
When the line guys have a copy of your order to shut themselves up, that’s a heck of a lot different. That looks….really bad. Why exert yourself not to mention put yourself on record when the shredder is in the next office? Has to be a reason to take a positive action instead of just sitting there.
WRT Pearl Harbor: It is said that Nimitz, in his first look at the destruction, was thinking we were pretty darn luck. It was Sunday so 90% of the sailors were ashore and not subject to the attack. The Japanese didn’t hit the dry docks. If they had, damaged ships would have had to be towed to San Diego–some sinking on the way–and if the fuel farms had been destroyed, we’d have had to fight the Pacific War from San Diego and Los Angeles with a fleet reduced even further.
If FDR were going to collaborate in the thing, how could he guarantee the Japanese would arrange to defeat themselves by doing what Nimitz figured was really good luck (if you have to be attacked in the first place)?
Translation via google from the Hebrew (concerning the pre-dawn meeting of Oct. 7):
https://twitter.com/tadmorerez48/status/1731790831974044052
Chain-of-command? Who needs that?
Richard Aubrey: You said it better than I did. Consign it to the file, go on with your day.
As for Pearl Harbor, those tank farms with all the fuel for the Pacific Fleet and the Airmy Air Force were just sitting there, big, fat, vulnerable. It may be that the guns on the Japanese planes could not penetrate the walls of the tanks and whatever bombs they had were used on ships and airplane hangars.
That was the situation with the Las Vegas sniper. Before he started shooting at the concert crowd, he was shooting at a nearby tank farm. I think he thought he might be able to shoot through the tank, cause enough damage the tank would fail and the fuel would wash down and into the concert area. Now that would be far worse than what he did with his rifles alone. But his “weapons of war” didn’t have the power to punch through the tanks.