The Israeli intelligence failure prior to October 7
We already know that one reason for Israel’s intelligence failure on October 7th was its over-reliance on technological intelligence and its abandonment of old-fashioned human intelligence. Another reason was that for at least two years, Hamas successfully pretended to be less interested in terrorism and more interested in economic advancement. This was something the Israelis wished to believe, and Hamas capitalized on it while secretly using intelligence gathered by the Gazan workers to whom Israel gave permits.
But there was also this on Israel’s part:
According to assessments based on the intelligence gathered prior to October 7 and indications of Hamas exercises near the border, the most severe scenario likely to occur was the infiltration of Hamas operatives for a lone attack on the border – yet this was defined as having a low probability. Military Intelligence estimated that most likely these were routine exercises by the terrorist organization’s military wing, similar to the months preceding the attack.
Security officials privy to the details of the intelligence emphasized that in no way was there mention of a strategic alert for war, a widespread offensive on multiple fronts, or an intention to penetrate multiple settlements simultaneously.
Others, however, beg to differ:
In the weeks following October 7, several reports have attested that senior IDF officials, including those from 8200, ignored warnings from subordinates regarding suspicious activity along the Gaza border.
A report published by Channel 12 last Thursday alleged that soldiers in the unit warned that Hamas was preparing a highly organized and meticulously planned mass invasion of Israel. In response, the soldiers were told that their concerns were a “fantasy.”
A non-commissioned officer in Unit 8200 put together a report from an array of raw intelligence data detailing a scenario that essentially predicted the October 7 invasion, Channel 12 said.
She, together with a junior officer, also pointed to a Hamas drill a month before the Hamas attack, noting that it included preparations for a mass invasion with multiple entry points into Israel.
The two presented their concerns to a senior IDF officer — although not one from 8200 — who dismissed their warnings as “fantasies” and failed to act on the information, Channel 12 said.
Backing up the claims published by Channel 12, Kan added that the non-commissioned officer warned that the Hamas drill included the use of vehicles to carry out the attack and that the terrorists practiced taking over Israeli towns.
The NCO also warned that the assault Hamas was planning was on such a large scale that it could spark an all-out war in the region …
Sounds pretty massive to me, and pretty accurate. But when people have a certain mindset and want to believe something – in this case, that Hamas had softened its hatred of Israel and its desire to obliterate Israel – it’s hard to let in contrary information, especially of such an alarmist nature. This turned out to be a very fatal error.
More:
Multiple reports in recent days reveal that Israel was aware that Hamas had built mock Israeli communities to train for a major assault, even ending one massive drill with the words “We have completed the killing of everyone on the kibbutz,” but intelligence warnings were largely dismissed as “fantasy.”
A BBC investigation published Tuesday found that Hamas had been training for the mission for nearly three years and had published multiple explicit images and videos on social media.
More at the link, but the most telling quote is this, which I think illustrates the mindset of the higher-ups:
“This scenario of the exercise described by the NCO is a complete fantasy. We need to differentiate between what [Hamas] is doing for bravado and show, and what is real,” he wrote.
The woman responded that it was not a fantasy, and that Hamas had the capability:
“They are preparing, with great forces, for a large event. This isn’t just a demonstration of abilities, this is a preparation for the real thing,” she concluded.
If she hadn’t been a woman, would her warning have been taken more seriously? I don’t know, but I think it’s at least a possibility.
I cannot even imagine the anger she – and the others who gave the warnings – must feel today.
NOTE: Here’s an in-depth discussion of the intelligence challenges and failures:
The phenomenon of intelligence failure in war is as old as human conflict. IMO, it usually results from someone not believing (or failing to investigate) what someone else told him. It was, e.g., a major reason why the Battle of Kadesh (Hittites vs. Egyptians, 1275 BC) unfolded so chaotically and unpredictably.
See: Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond, https://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Surprise-Attack-Failure-Success/dp/B00S8J7SXC/ref=sr_1_2?Adv-Srch-Books-Submit.x=0&Adv-Srch-Books-Submit.y=0&qid=1701372204&refinements=p_28%3Aintelligence+failure&s=books&sr=1-2&unfiltered=1
This an excellent summary and expansion on the situation.
I have seen the blind side, and the muted and ignored reports undermining it.
But you have intriguingly gone wider and deeper into the reporting than anyone else, think.
Caroline Glick, JNS, “Aharon Haliva has got to go. Now.
An intelligence chief who publicly rejects the government’s characterization of a war, whose poor professional judgment led to catastrophe and who has a history of contemptuous insubordination simply cannot be trusted.”: https://www.jns.org/aharon-haliva-has-got-to-go-now/
And: premiere in progress — https://youtu.be/iW_RvmWdhKg?si=3pADUGcvaPQWZfDm
So three years would have included bennett and the other guys term of office
But when people have a certain mindset and want to believe something – in this case, that Hamas had softened its hatred of Israel and its desire to obliterate Israel – it’s hard to let in contrary information, especially of such an alarmist nature.
I’d add that there’s also the human failing of preception and precedence that came into play when these “higher-ups” dismissed this as “fantasy”. In terms of precendence, Hamas had never attempted something this bold before, and there really hadn’t been a major attack on Israel of real consequence since the 6 Day War over 50 years ago. People find it difficult to believe extreme scenarios are possible when there’s no precendence for them, or precedence within their lifetimes anyway. You can draw obvious parallels to the events leading up to 9-11. If on September 10, 2001 someone told you that a group of terrorists was going to hijack multiple commercial airliners and crash them into the World Trade Center and the Capitol, do you think it would have seemed far fetched to you at the time? I don’t know if “precedence bias” is the right term for this particular human failing or if there’s some other better term perhaps.
We cant say we werent warned
https://twitter.com/gaza_report/status/1730241713472414075
What worries me is the question of how many predictions, like the one referred to above, are being ignored by our own government. If one percent of the millions of people pouring unimpeded across the Southern border planned to attack us, the result would be more of a disaster than occurred in Israel.
So haliva is much like general hayden
Something is very rotten here.
Something didn’t add up. Doesn’t add up.
It was my initial—gut—reaction, though afterwards I felt a bit ashamed of it.
Now, with all these stories coming out—terrible stories—about warning that were contemptuously disregarded, about spotters who were threatened with court martial if they pursued their warnings regarding things they were seeing with their own eyes over a period of time—it has become clear that it is not merely “the conception” (that overall excuse…providing so-called “plausible deniability”) that played a huge part in the utter and total disaster that has taken place.
This thing seems clearly to be top down.
Barry Meislin:
To me, it adds up perfectly – and tragically- in terms of human nature.
OK, but that’s my point, I guess.
What happened—what was allowed to happen—is MORE THAN just human nature….
The ONLY mitigation that I might grant the perpetrators of this abject and murderous failure—of lives and of policy—is that, in pursuit of their goals (that’s right!) they never envisaged it would be as awful as it turned out to be.
And it’s not over, not by any means.
Tom Kippur War of 1973, Six Day War was 1966.
Yom Kippur War the Syrians, Egyptians, Jordanians (?) all attacked. IIRC it was a close run thing especially with the Syrians trying to breach the Goalan Heights. There were many many Israeli casualties in the tank crews, from ATGMs and multitudes of Soviet supplied tanks. Israeli Merkava tank design based on that war IIRC.
What was the blood price they wanted
sdferr’s article is quite damning. It strongly suggests that Israeli intelligence is very rotten at the top. I worry that may have happened to our CIA also.
There was a recent news item about a high level CIA official warning subordinates not to be so public in their support of the Palestinians. Apparently, there was no concern about the actual support, just the social media publicity blowback.
_____
Barry got my thought out first. “rotten” “top down.” Yes, indeed.
Who would object burns haines milley
There’s an Israeli drama series on the Yom Kippur War focused on the Golan fight, a dramatization called “Valley of Tears”, available for free on YouTube — episode 1: https://youtu.be/VZIv0u98LqY?si=yFnip_DsjfQ__7Eh.
The rest of the episodes 2-10 can be found at that same channel “Solo Dios lo Sabe”.
Anthony Blinken is a disgrace to the United States of America.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-breaking-cycle-of-violence-will-require-israel-to-improve-palestinians-lives/
Yep, Honest A.’s on a roll!
Israel MUST provide those whose goal is to destroy it with a better life, inducements, encouragement and—that’s right—hope for a better future.
(Because the Palestinians sure as Hell can’t do it for themselves? Never mind that the ONLY thing that would “provide” them with a better life, inducements, encouragement and hope would be see Israel disappear. Erased. Destroyed. Or, preferable, to destroy it themselves. Talk about EXALTATION, SHEER JOY. INCREDIBLE SATISFACTION! Well…God IS Great…)
But such a prescription is merely more “Bidenesca” BS.
More “been there, done that”…and look how THAT turned out.
More mealy, moldy, wormy, stale, warmed over “Oslo” (and, more recently, precisely what “Biden” advised Israel to do vis-a-vis Hamas).
Yep, Honest A.’s on a rolllll…
Hes just malleys sock puppet
And going up to the next rung, Ladies and Gentlemen, we present….
(Actually, make that “going down to the next circle of Hell”…)
Excellent
Blinken is a disgrace to the human race; ‘If Israel were only nicer to Palestinians (genocidal monsters) they wouldn’t act out, not that the destruction of Israel would be a bad thing….’
Dangerous, trying to think like a Blinken and his evil ilk.
Israel is no different than the USA.
Its government is infested with people who wish its destruction; they want to fundamentally transform the nature of the nation.
The continued existence of the USA and Israel in their exceptional albeit imperfect natures requires the elimination of these saboteurs.
There is no shortage of shithole countries in the world. There is a very limited number of Freedom Beacons and they should and must be preserved.
By any means necessary.
“What worries me is the question of how many predictions, like the one referred to above, are being ignored by our own government. If one percent of the millions of people pouring unimpeded across the Southern border planned to attack us, the result would be more of a disaster than occurred in Israel.” Mr Bill
Upon what basis might we assume that not to be the goal? Would not a series of horrific terrorist attacks across the nation be a perfect ‘rationale’ to declare nationwide martial law?
What we already knew
https://twitter.com/JacobMagid/status/1730297970224972212
To paraphrase Hamlet: “Something is rotten in the State of Israel.”
Well they want to surrender to one or another foreign power
It is easy to say ” Ahha ! ” after the fact. While the NCO should have been listened to, I can understand how there would be people who refused to see how Hamas was about to do something on a larger scale than they had been operating at. Some people are maybe just wired that way.
Our government is basically doing the same thing now with our wide open borders.
I think many of our people are under some kind of strong delusion. How else do you explain not just transgenders, but all the vast numbers of non transgenders that demand we validate the ” gender ideology” lies?
Something is seriously wrong in Western Civilization.
Jon baker, I think the ‘seriously something wrong’ is addressed in the KJV. It’s called the ‘reprobate mind’. Those who know, know.
In quiet times, intel gets calcified, or complacent. New information which might indicate the status quo may possibly need to change encounter normal human and organizational resistance.
Do you want to call Defcon Red when the line guys see a couple of people wandering around where they hadn’t before. Sort of behind terrain features. Looking around. Seems as if there’s an avenue of approach from this side of the near terrain feature, cover from the eas and northeast…..
Okay. Who you going to wake up? Upset somebody’s training schedule. What they have on line this week is mostly reserves due out by Friday and emergency retention takes paperwork and a bump on the two weeks’ reserve pay. From somebody’s budget, which said somebody came close to overrunning last quarter and heard about it.
Couple of guys wandering around with cell phones? Waving them around, as if using as cameras.
You sure?
That, I can see.
When somebody says actual maneuvers with weapons, higher should go up and have a look. That didn’t happen. That’s bad.
Dismissing reports with, so to speak, extreme prejudice looks really, really bad. As in…suspicious.
I doubt any of these apparatchiks are smart enough to play the complete undergame BUT: Netanyahu’s failure to kill Hamas’ leaders in the past, coupled with his uneven handling of the invasion, means that he will be out as PM pretty soon. Which is exactly what the Israeli Left wants. If you think the current situation is bad, think what it will be like by next summer.
miguel, does Magid do stand-up? “The Biden administration’s strategy for a post-war Gaza”, that’s comedy gold right there.
@ IrishOtter > ” it usually results from someone not believing (or failing to investigate) what someone else told him.”
That’s what things looked like to me after reading random news reports, and that’s the impression I still had after reading Neo’s post.
Then I read Glick’s article (see sdferr’s link).
CAVEAT: I did not watch the video, so may be repeating something said therein.
What was happening, by her account, was much worse: the intelligence leaders were actively shutting down the people monitoring the situation.
How many of them were aware of the other reports, or of the suppressing of intelligence gathering?
If they didn’t know all the fore-going, then this warning would indeed come out of nowhere, in their view, and thus be a “fantasy” instead of actionable reality.
If they did know, then they should all be fired.
With extreme prejudice.
Glick then goes into the political end of the situation, which I won’t venture to plumb. However, the actions detailed here go FAR beyond just a failure to accept “New information which might indicate the status quo may possibly need to change” which will “encounter normal human and organizational resistance.” (Richard Aubrey)
That is certainly part of the “terms of human nature.” (Neo)
What Glick describes, as Barry said, is much more than that.
“This thing seems clearly to be top down.”
Worse, it was NOT from the “top” but from that layer of bureaucrats in Israel, like the ones in the US, who believe that THEY are the ones in charge of policy, rather than the elected leaders.
Glick:
“When they continued reporting, the observers were warned that they would be disciplined and removed from the unit if they kept raising their concerns.”
Had they continued and been removed, they might possibly still be alive today.
@ sdferr > “Anthony Blinken is a disgrace to the United States of America”
“Blinken doesn’t get too specific, but says Ramallah will have to undergo reforms, rid itself of corruption and promote a free press.”
By that standard, every Democrat in DC has to stand down.
https://notthebee.com/article/jim-jordan-just-released-the-youtube-files-showing-how-the-white-house-partnered-with-youtube-to-censor-speech
Blinken is a fitting apparatchik for the regime.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2023/11/30/blinken-to-israelis-i-dont-think-you-have-the-credit-to-fight-hamas-to-finish-n595820
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-said-to-tell-israel-to-change-strategy-for-southern-gaza-suggest-it-wont-have-months-to-win-war/
Morrissey cites the same Magid post that Miguel pointed to earlier.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/pas-abbas-a-liability-in-planning-for-post-war-gaza-arab-officials-say/
America’s border assaults — both southern & northern — are Mayorkas & crew’s “top down” setup for terror attacks HERE.
I’m beginning to wonder what their coming year’s calendar “highlights” look like. Who will be asleep. What plans are in place for deniability.
“By that standard, every Democrat in DC has to stand down.”
Indeed, starting with—surprise!—Honest A. himself.
– – – – – – – –
‘…calendar “highlights”…’
Indeed. (Pinup calendar, most likely….)
And all of ’em are complicit. Each and every one…
…whether it’s foreign policy (Honest A.), or the economy (the Wise Owlita), or the borders (My Oh Mayorkas), or the Trans onslaught (The By No Means Admirable Admiral), or the DOJ (Merrick-tricious), or the energy crisis, or the cities, or education, or DEI/DIE, or the SEC, or the Military, or the NIH/CDC, or Transportation etc…. Liars the whole lot of ’em.
To paraphrase Dylan, the entire wretched crew is “standing naked”.
File under: “…(We’re Only Bleeding)” sung by The “Biden”s..
We were married on 10/6/73 & celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary at a Greek restaurant in Sarasota FL when the Hamas attack on Israel commenced. Now our wedding was on Yom Kippur & one of my best friends couldn’t make it for that reason. So a potential coincidence 50 years later should have ideally had some heightened scrutiny.
I say that especially since 9/11 was on the date in 1683 when a Polish Prince thwarted the Turkish advance at the Gates of Vienna. That calendar date became repeatedly important in 2001 and thereafter. Dates are chosen to highlight issues. They don’t have to be but they are.The Israeli’s had an inkling of what was occurring and effectively ignored it. That’s a tragedy. They should have been more sensitive to bottom up information sources.
I have not been able to post here due to work pressures – Israeli hi-tech, like much of the central Tel-Aviv area, is starting to return to normal as schools resume regular operation.
1. I did not favor the cease-fire, but it progressed about as I expected – and had less of a bad effect on Israeli morale than I feared. Part of that was the obvious malice and deceit of the Palis, and the further evidence of cruelty and mistreatment that emerged.
I was heartened that the major dailies stuck to the “we must press on” line. They also covered minor terrorist activity in the West Bank and the Golan that probably did not make it to overseas news – culminating in the shooting in Jerusalem, which probably did.
It seems that the hostage exchange has taken the emotional wind out of the sails of the overwrought “at any cost” types and the defeatists…. many Israelis are satisfied that we have now done all we could to save these citizens, and now must move on to the next stage in this war. The Left – which typically harps on situations like this – has not really gained the leverage that it did with previous hostage situations.
2. It is clear from local news and anecdote that Israel has devoted the ceasefire to cleaning house in the West Bank and the north – the attack in Jerusalem was one of many more minor, less successful incidents born of infectious “solidarity”, bravado, and/or desperation.
3. I am quite willing to believe that Israeli complacence played a role in the attack, and it is clear that the higher military echelons were detached from reality and still don’t comprehend the pro-war shift in public attitude… but I am very suspicious of accusations made while battle rages.
If this proves to be true, it will confirm those who already see this war as a bookend to 1973 – not just because Hamas picked the Gregorian date of the Yom Kippur War to launch this one.
1973 was the first time the socialist, secular elite got cocky and thought there was a New Middle East. It blew up in their faces – and ushered in the current era of Likud governments.
The bumper sticker for 1967 was “Hats off to the Army!”
The bumper sticker for 1973 was “Israel Trusts in The Lord”
The strategic failure of Yom Kippur caused domino failures in politics, media, and most especially in the social and religious areas of society: The silent majority of traditionally-minded Jewish Israelis no longer bowed to a socialist (re)vision of Israeli identity divorced from Judaism. The secular kibbutznik was joined in the pantheon of warriors by the bearded scholar-soldier of the religious-Zionist seminaries, and the long ignored Sephardic population asserted itself in music and other cultural areas.
However, the old elite retained control of the media, judiciary, and military…
Whatever is in store, this war has already dealt a critical blow to the remnant of the ultra-secular elite.
“…The US no longer has the credit to impose such suicidal strategies on Israel…”
Credit?
Except that might “Biden” not have other ways to “impose” “his”, um, “helpful suggestions”?
The battle is officially back on. Israel has wisely decided to push on to eliminate Hamas. There’s still supposedly 137 hostages, including 20 women and 2 children.
I wonder how much of the left’s war on Netanyahu contributed to the failure of intelligence.
Mike K.
How far would Israel’s Deep State go to embarrass/oust Netanyahu?
Is this worse than they imagined? Not bad enough yet? Just fine?
Read an alt-hist many years in which the Intel movement has been screwing us for centuries; even arranging to get Richard Lionheart shot.
Maybe it wasn’t “alt”.