Home » Open thread 11/20/23

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Open thread 11/20/23 — 55 Comments

  1. Gosh. I wonder if these robots will be used for combat. Nah. It’ll be fine.

    AI is coming at us faster than I like and I don’t see a way to stop it.

  2. Nothing to do with politics, but an interesting surprise:

    “Residents in the northeastern Heilongjiang province’s Yilan County and Hulin City have reported multiple sightings of wild Siberian tigers, prompting local concerns about human-wildlife conflict. The tigers, driven by a harsh winter and mating behaviors, have been spotted near residential areas and have reportedly killed livestock.” (https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1014102)

    It’s been estimated that China’s far northeast is home to about fifty wild Siberian tigers. Harbin is the northeast’s provincial capital. I once knew someone from there, and she said that Harbin was called China’s icebox, but she never mentioned the Siberian tigers, and that kind of wildness doesn’t come to mind when I think of China. Learn something new every day.

  3. The more times you need to say that robots won’t be used as warriors or killing machines, the more likely it is that they will be.

    But it’s inspiring. No matter how much humans frustrate, confuse, plague, bedevil, and torture the mechanoids, the robots find the time to dance, dance, dance.

  4. Speaking personally, I would love a powerful humanoid robot for yard work. I developed back pain about a month ago after moving some rather large logs around for splitting. A bot that could respond to simple instructions like “Pick up this object and set it down over there” would be amazing, especially one that could lift upwards of several hundred pounds. Of course something like that would probably cost hundreds of thousands of dollars at least.

    Apparently Elon has banned the phrases “From the river to the sea” and “decolonization” from the platform formerly known as Twitter, saying that they imply calls for genocide of the Jewish people.

  5. Anyone ever see anything about the power source for robots like this? As impressive as they are I’d think they’d need a lot of energy, so I assume for the time being they’re of very short range/duration?

  6. Robots for military use:

    it is a slam dunk that robots will find their way onto the battlefield.

    Initially in only limited applications, but as time goes on their use will be more widespread.

    I can’t believe that anybody thinks otherwise.

  7. @Mike Plaiss – The only bot that Boston Dynamics actually has on the market is the dog one, called Spot. According to their website, Spot uses a good sized Lithium-Ion Battery that will supposedly last for about 90 hours of use. Now Spot isn’t very big, it’s roughly the size of a medium sized dog and weighs about 70 pounds. My guess is that a humanoid roughly the size of an adult male would likely require significanly more power than Spot if it were to be able to lift and carry any useful amount. I know that LiON battery tech has come a long way in the past few years, but I’m uncertain if they’re at the point were they can produce a battery that could power such a robot that doesn’t weigh so much that it hinders to robot in such a way to make it still useful. I found a recent article discussing the topic in better detail than I ever could.

  8. nonapod, not me. I spent a career dealing with malfunctioning tech. I don’t want tech around me that is capable of attacking me.

    From Dune

    “ Corrin
    51Sa-01dxyL-1
    Butlerian Jihad
    Beginning
    201 BG
    End
    108 BG, with the destruction of the last machines
    Place
    Across the Known Universe
    Result
    Butlerian victory
    All computers, thinking machines and conscious robots are destroyed.
    Machine-based technology is wiped out.
    The majority of historical documents are destroyed.
    Commanders
    Unnamed Minister Companion
    Combatants
    Butlerians Unknown
    [Source]
    “We must negate the machines-that-think. Humans must set their own guidelines. This is not something machines can do. Reasoning depends upon programming, not on hardware, and we are the ultimate program! Our Jihad is a “dump program.” We dump the things which destroy us as humans!”
    ? Minister-companion of the Jihad[src]
    The Butlerian Jihad, also known as the Great Revolt as well as commonly shortened to the Jihad, was the crusade against computers, thinking machines, and conscious robots that begun in 201 BG and concluded in 108 BG.[1]

  9. My take:

    Robots have a place in any venue. You just have to realize its limitations. Yes, BD has robots that can do all kinds of fantastic movement but that’s a machine stripped down to perform those. It’s an entirely different animal (heh) to have AI capacity computers on board. Obviously, in the field long cables won’t work and even radio could be open to blocked with noise.

    Then you have the energy requirements. I’m guessing a .22 or even a pellet gun could disable a BD robot. Armor is heavy and the more, the heavier with the support batteries adding a lot of weight. Just check the battery/overall ratios on EVs which are mostly aluminum shells.

    Prediction: Supporting roles such as the quadruped robots they’re testing for supply carry will certainly occur but combat will be a ways off until power issues disappear and recognition AI is much, much better than say, Teslas. More like the versions you see mocked up in the movies.

    You don’t want a robot fragging your own platoon or you’ll get soldiers preemptively sabotaging the dangerously unpredictable things with good reason.

    Thankfully.

    2c

  10. Nonapod:
    Apparently Elon has banned the phrases “From the river to the sea” and “decolonization” from the platform formerly known as Twitter, saying that they imply calls for genocide of the Jewish people.

    Rightfully so. Even 1A doesn’t support pointing at someone and hollering “Kill him!”

  11. Not that it matters…
    _________________________________

    Of course, one can’t believe everything one reads, especially on the Internet. A prime example is this: try a Google search of “Is Elon Musk Jewish?” and see how many experts say he is.

    Actually, although he grew up in Pretoria and had many Jewish friends, the multi-billionaire US entrepreneur is not Jewish.

    https://www.sajr.co.za/ever-wondered-if-they-re-jewish/
    ________________________________

    According to wiki Musk’s parents are British and Pennsylvania Dutch._

  12. Chases Eagles:

    Quoting novels isn’t a good argument.

    I’ll just point to the Asimov universe where AI robots are ubiquitous and benign except for gross malfunction and will even self-destruct before allowing a human to be harmed.

    I too spent a career dealing with high tech. Mine was with software systems.

    I believe the primary problem with AI is that it’s based on binary hardware/software instead of analog, neither of which we have as all analog hardware translates to binary to process. Yes, yes, one can point to something like a reostat, but move one 33% lower via computer control – accurately.

    I believe that granularity impedes the “intelligence” and we have no idea how to define, much less map out, intelligence onto such a system. And I don’t either, just a hunch, so again…

    2c

  13. “Biden’s” visa ban: https://www.jns.org/biden-wants-visa-ban-for-israeli-lawbreakers-in-judea-and-samaria/

    Biden wrote in a Washington Post op-ed published on Saturday that “the United States is prepared to take our own steps, including issuing visa bans against extremists attacking civilians in the West Bank.”

    The internal document, which was read to Politico by a senior U.S. official on Saturday evening, shortly after Biden’s op-ed was published, broadly defines the targets of the visa ban and sanctions.

    They include people or entities that “have directly or indirectly engaged in actions or policies that threaten the security or stability of the West Bank,” take “actions that intimidate civilians in the West Bank with the purpose or effect of forcing displacement actions in the West Bank,” or make moves “that constitute human rights abuses or violations and actions that significantly obstruct, disrupt or prevent efforts to achieve a two-state solution.”

    The Biden administration warned Israel that it is violating the visa waiver program with the U.S. by preventing Palestinian Arabs with American citizenship from crossing into Israel from Judea and Samaria, Axios reported last week.

    For a breakdown of the details I’d commend you see Caroline Glick’s show from yesterday: https://youtu.be/OhT0O0jfgls?si=AhRT5Ulpbay-J9iB

  14. Re Open Thread 11/18/23

    J.J.,

    Interesting that you wrote a book! Unfortunately, a quick web search didn’t provide any result.
    It would be nice if you could somehow share it.

    I enjoy reading your comments on Neo’s blog!

  15. I’m surprised that some of the design decisions made by Tesla vs. Boston Dynamics were not covered. For example, the use of a full four-finger + thumb hand design by Tesla. There are rumors that Optimus robots are already building Tesla cars in experimental industrial settings.

    But the market for Parkour-champion robots may be a bit smaller.

  16. Correction:

    J.J. mentioned his book in the “On the leftist takeover of American universities” thread.

  17. There is a Tex-Mex restaurant chain called “Jalapeno Tree”. The very busy one in Tyler , Texas – same city where the Pope removed the Conservative Bishop recently – has a robot that seats guest. The hostess puts the menu on its head, it leads guest to their designated table, the guest remove the menus and the robot returns to the hostess.

  18. Chases Eagles:

    I believe you’re being too selective with the phrase. A gross malfunction will drop an airliner out of the sky as well. For that matter, a smaller but critical malfunction can destroy a Challenger.

    To defend Asimov, none of his robots malfunctioned like that abysmal Will Smith movie had them actually and intentionally harming a human.

  19. @J.J.:

    LOL Love your humility.

    Yeah, I’ve been getting lackadaisical as well. Too hard to keep things I want to keep online for extended periods separated and up to date. So those are consolidating and I’ll once in a while link to them. There you can find my- dun dun duhhhh – real name.

    Or, at least the alias I use instead of the certificate thingie.

    Too old to care about it much any more.

  20. well they inverted the three laws, in that film

    that wasn’t the way I envisioned susan calvin,

  21. @Chases Eagles, Re Dune: Some hardcore Dune fans dislike the books written by Frank Herbert’s son Brian and Kevin J. Anderson, feeling that they were a misinterpretation of his father’s intentions regarding mankind’s relationship with thinking machines as well as their interpretation of the Butlarian Jihad. I personally liked those books, but I understand the issue that some fans had with them.

    Specifically, Brian Herbert and Kevin J. Anderson’s books are essentially the classic AI revolution Science Fiction trope, where most of humanity is conquered and subjected by malevolent thinking machines. After a while a human rebellion occurs (the so called “Butlarian Jihad”) and the humans eventually prevail. Some fans argue this isn’t the story that Frank Herbert would have written or intended and that he would have told a nuanced tale of humanity becoming too dependent on thinking machines.

  22. the animatrix short, second renaissance, relates how the robot rebellion arose, long story short, after one of the human kills a robot, the Courts determine the Robot has no rights the Robots relocate themselves to a fortress in Old Babylon,
    the Humans strike, and the robots fight back, the Humans blot out the sun, to deny the robots electricity, and well you know the rest,

  23. Hmm, I played my tiny part in the first flight of Challenger (loss of spacecraft control) and the last flight of Challenger (our ride blew up).

    IUS was the family spacecraft (me, my father, my wife, my wife’s brother and my wife’s brother’s wife) funny thing is I was the only one that knew all of them at the time. My father and my future wife knew each other and of course she knew her brother but that was all. For example, the brother didn’t know his future wife until several years later when she was working with my wife on the Lightweight Exo-atmospheric Projectile but I knew her on IUS.

    Re: Dune
    I admit I didn’t like any of the series except Dune itself no matter who wrote them.

  24. “Dune” blew my seventh-grade mind and it was a challenging read for me at that age.

    I’ve not been keen on any of the film adaptations, though I am somewhat fond of the TV mini-series.

    Frank Herbert was something else, way ahead of the curve. The blue eyes of the Fremen for their exposure to the spice? The trademark color of psilocybin mushrooms when crushed.

    Herbert took psilocybin mushrooms way before “Sgt. Pepper’s.”

  25. RE: UFOs—Edging closer to admitting that “It’s Aliens.”

    Although in the “Debrief” article which first publicized whistleblower David Grusch and his sensational allegations about UFOs to the world there was a statement by his former coworker, recently retired Army Colonel Karl E. Nell–vouching for and saying that Grusch was a person who was “beyond reproach,” and attesting to the veracity of his claims–given the extremely sensational nature of the claims Grusch was making, this supporting statement by Nell was largely overlooked. *

    In fact, it should not have been, because Army Col. Nell has had a long and extraordinary high level been there done that military career, and if anybody was qualified to evaluate the likelihood and the credibility of Grusch’s claims, it would be someone with the background and experience of Colonel Nell.

    Thus, when Col. Karl E. Nell is quoted as saying that–

    “His (Grusch’) assertion concerning the existence of a terrestrial arms race occurring sub-rosa over the past eighty years focused on reverse engineering technologies of unknown origin is fundamentally correct, as is the indisputable realization that at least some of these technologies of unknown origin derive from non-human intelligence,”

    I believe that it should be given enormous weight. **

    * See https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/

    ** For more discussion of Col. Nell and his very extensive military background and experience see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvy25vQKAWI

  26. yes but melange is supposed to be a metaphor for a critical resource, like oil, that the Berbers of North Africa, and the Caucasus residents would be aware,

    I think the series with Alex Newman as Paul was pretty good, although the second film has points to commend it,

  27. As portrayed in Dune the ideology and culture of the Freemen was in many ways very analogous to the ideology and culture of Islam and of Muslims and, I’d imagine, may have been the first introduction–on more than a surface level–to the ideology and culture of Islam and of Muslims for many people.

  28. the precursors to the Fremen, were the Zensunni, (of course I initially read Dune in the 80s, long before I saw the film) one might think they are more like the more militant Sufis, the Nasquabandi of Iraq, even imam Shamil’s bands

  29. I read Dune in a single night while working totally alone all night in the IUS System Integration Lab. I changed my logon to Duncan Idaho.

  30. To (whimsically, if not hilariously) pair up with Michael Anton’s article linked above, I give a link to my old cross-street neighbor Juan Williams — now writing for The Hill (though back then he was still at the WaPo, albeit under a cloud of accusations of sexual harassment in the office at the time): “Republicans’ Hatred For America Is Showing”
    https://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/juan-williams/4314959-republicans-hatred-for-america-is-showing/

    Less comedian, Juan, than partisan hack, I gotta say.

  31. AI is dangerous if we humans begin to believe that AI can do anything and is superior to human intellect.

    First of all, all AI machines require electricity. A power source of some sort -battery, elenctic outlets, etc. And the bigger the machine, the more power it needs. Interrupt the power source and the machine is useless. It’s like an aircraft carrier in that way. Damage the deck (arresting gear, deck space, and catapults) of an aircraft carrier and it’s essentially become a passenger ship. Very vulnerable, as is AI.

    Can AI learn like a human? It can memorize lots of information and data. But it essentially doesn’t know what it means. It can tell you it’s hot because it can read the thermometer. However, it doesn’t know what hot means because it has no feelings, no reactions to anything except its power supply.

    AI can be useful for doing repetitive tasks that humans do. It can relieve us of monotonous jobs. Will we ever have pilotless airliners? Maybe, but it’s pretty far away. The problem with automating driverless cars and airplanes is that the machines have no fear and no survival instinct.

  32. I don’t think that I’ve seen computers reason, in this sense, they can aggregate information, but think,

    so in many of these dystopian tales, the machine becomes self aware, this is the trope in I Robot as well as Ultron, where it realizes humanities foibles,

  33. yes but melange is supposed to be a metaphor for a critical resource, like oil, that the Berbers of North Africa, and the Caucasus residents would be aware,

    –miguel cervantes

    True, but not only. Herbert was working both sides of that street.

    My point, for my conservative friends, is that the central basis of the Dune saga was a psychedelic, which Frank Herbert had personally experienced in the form of the psilocybin mushroom.

  34. In I, Robot, the robots are built aware, just inexperienced. Asimov got away with it by having an entirely new technology for them, both physical and programmatic. So one isn’t projecting imaginings onto what you would think of as a machine, although I think humans with ‘low’ views of robots was an aspect of one story at least.

    I don’t see AI as we’re implementing it currently as a great danger as long as it’s understood it’s under the control of someone with an agenda. Many, many someones as an AI is simply an instance of some family of code.

    Take deceit. You need that to take over the world. The only deceit I see in our models are parameters the owners put on searching for and providing output from the database. That’s not really ‘AI’ being deceitful and it’s restricted to one instance. As each instance develops a unique database over time, it’s not like you can just move the ‘deceitful’ section over to another machine.

    I’m thinking something like a silicone based bio-mechanical approach. Complex brains rely on complex nerve connections and weighted processing of some nature. I’m betting that approach is fundamental to intelligence.

    3c

  35. Chases Eagles, the beauty of that particular user ID is that you can smoothly add on a number at the end to show which iteration you’re on each time your account gets nuked. 🙂

  36. Rufus T. – “If I buy the used copy listed will the money go to you?”

    Nope. The book is out of print and only used copies remain. Probably not many of those. It was not a big seller. 🙁

    Thanks for the thought.

    Jordan Rivers – I hope you enjoy it. Not enough people did or I would be a rich author now. 🙂

  37. “…hijacking…”

    One had to know there was an excellent reason why “Biden” took them Houthis off the “Terrorist” list….

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