Election results
The news is not good from yesterday’s election. I’m not going to analyze it in depth; others have done so. I refer you to this, this, and the initial portion of this.
If you want a brighter take on things, I suggest this:
… [T]here is some welcome news emerging from here in Loudoun County, Virginia: Buta Biberaj, the Soros-backed commonwealth’s attorney who was soft on criminals, preferring instead to prosecute concerned parents, has been defeated by her Republican opponent, Bob Anderson.
Another more hopeful take, this time about the Virginia legislature, can be found here. I hope the author – Bonchie – is correct:
Specifically, in Virginia, Republicans showed a surprising level of strength despite falling short of taking the legislature. That’s probably not what you are getting from the headlines this morning, but the numbers show an overperformance by the Glenn Youngkin-led GOP there.
The most stunning stat shows that Republicans won every single seat in districts rated up to Biden +9. …
The reality is that because of a redistricting effort by Democrats that occurred just before Youngkin took power, actually taking the Virginia legislature was always a long shot. There is no denying, though, that Republicans made a very strong push to do so on Tuesday and could be reasonably described as having overperformed. That’s been a rarely used word regarding Republicans the last several election cycles.
At some point, the electoral realities of a state come into play. Youngkin’s win in 2021 was astonishing, but it was not a new baseline. Virginia is a blue state. …
Ultimately, Virginia may just be a bridge too far, but the trends we saw were positive for Republicans. That shouldn’t be taken away from Youngkin. What that means for him going forward, I can’t say. Perhaps he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2026, or perhaps he’ll try to run for president in 2028, but the idea that his political career ended last night because he didn’t pull off a miracle in a blue state is dishonest.
If Republicans took the strategy from Virginia last night and replicated it nationwide, they’d win in a landslide in 2024. That’s not the message a lot of influencers and commentators on the right are going to tell you because they have other interests at play.
It seems to me that Democrats should be getting trounced everywhere. The fact that they’re not makes me think that (a) abortion continues to be a huge and overriding issue, and (b) young voters are bluer and bluer, and that is very difficult to overcome. Logic certainly doesn’t seem to have any effect.
Young voters are destroying the Republic.
Indeed it somes as if abortion remains a useful wedge issue for Democrats, allowing them to hold power in places where they may otherwise have lost it. Undoubtably this will continue to be a problem for Republicans in 2024, but it remains to be seen how much of a problem it will be.
IrishOtter:
Yes. But their views are shaped by a combination of an utterly failed educational system and a toxic social media.
neo:
No argument there. But the causes are what they are. The fact remains that younger voters are destroying the Republic — the American way of life.
(Also, and since we’re mentioning causes: the parents of all those smart young voters are complicit in our societal dégringolade. AWFLs in particular.)
The article about Virginia is interesting. Based on that, the comparison should be as if California Republicans “only” got 45% of the seats in the Assembly and State Senate. It’s true that they wouldn’t have a majority. But it would still be a vast improvement over the current state where the Dems have supermajorities.
Yesterday’s election in Virginia is a perfect illustration of the urban / rural divide.
https://www.virginiagrassroots.org/maps/map-VA-Counties-2021-election.png
GB,
My wife attended Mary Washington U in Fredericksburg…Albemarle county. Back then it was red. Then it became the commuting living place for the DC crowd and you see the result.
It’s almost all about abortion here in NJ – especially for college-educated women. While my county, Hunterdon, is Red – we’re overwhelmed by the more populated Blue areas of the state. It’s depressing.
I think the shift is primarily related to single, adult females. They are very opinionated and they vote.
1/3 of women 18 – 29 are single.
1/3 of women 50 – 64 are single.
1/2 of women 65 and older are single.
30 – 49 is the only group under 1/3 at 20%.
the crazy da in loudoun county was tossed,
This is the environment that many think Trump can win in?!?!?
Voted for him twice. Now, wish the heck he would go play golf.
Amen, JD Keene!
JK Keene,
Again- no Republican is going to win the presidency. The Democrats have a lock on the Electoral College. The only difference between Trump and DeSantis chanceswise is that the Democrats don’t need to cheat to beat DeSantis- they can win WI, MI, and PA without cheating against DeSantis, and thus will win the electoral college.
For about 1000th time- Trump is unique among Republican candidates- without Trump on the ticket, the model you need to use is the one from 2012- that election tells us that VA, NV, CO, NH, and NM are no longer winnable for a Republican unless that Republican can win the national vote by 5%+, which I consider impossible given the demographic changes. Trump changes the calculation because he is the only GOP candidate competitive in WI, MI, and PA and makes IA and OH, true tossup states otherwise, solid red.
I like DeSantis, but if he or Haley are the nominee, they will lose the election in much the same way Romney lost in 2012 with the possible exception of picking up OH in a losing election.
“Now, wish the heck he would go play golf.” – JD Keene
I think we’ve passed that stop. Besides, President Trump didn’t create the issue with abortion.
You really think the environment would be any different with Governor DeSantis?
You’d be better off starting a draft Youngkin movement.
At this point, President Trump is the lightening rod demonstrating how far our country has fallen down the rathole into the sewer of chaos/insanity. The bloodthirsty, leftist mob is at the gate looking to string somebody up.
I’m curious. What issue do you think would magically right itself if Trump were to just shut up and take his medicine?
now not voting for cameron, seems stupid on it’s face,
so was ignoring second order impacts of empowering democrats
on issues from judicial nominations (veto) to energy concerns
https://twitter.com/JoeyMannarinoUS/status/1722422369921204498
The Republicans are terrible campaigners, and it shows again and again in their ability to pick the absolute wrong issues to campaign on, and an absolute ineptness when it comes to highlighting the shortcomings and failures of their political opponents.
On abortion, Republicans continue to think they can use nuance on abortion limits, while the Democrats destroy them by using proximity rhetoric, portraying them as abortion absolutists, because ‘close enough’.
Having commanded the ship of State Education for a few decades now, the indoctrination is starting to pay off with younger voters, for the Democrats.
I’ve said elsewhere, the American public has wanted a different Republican Party for some time, but the GOPe ‘Executive Suite’ prefers its own version, and thinks they can finesse this by saying popular things on camera, but exercising their preferences in private with ruthless abandon on the back of ineffectual political campaigns. Who runs Bartertown?
First off, these were state and local elections, resting primarily on state and local issues and personalities. Keep that in mind.
Second, yes Cameron lost in Kentucky but he fought one hell of a fight, and kept it much closer than anyone expected even a month ago.
Third, Tate Reeves was reelected. Mississippi is deep red but Reeves is deeply unpopular due to a Medicaid scandal; he also just seems like a bungling hack. Also, Democrats got a federal court to make it easier for felons to vote. Yet Reeves still prevailed, despite a massive push by the NAACP.
Fourth, remember Jeff Landry blew away the Louisiana primary to win the governorship outright three weeks ago.
As to Virginia (which seems to be the focus of everyone’s attention), it is increasingly becoming a lost cause, but an instructive one. Neo referenced abortion; I will amplify it: Dobbs continues to wreck having for the GOP among a key segment of swing voters.
There is no issue conservatives and GOP politicians are as clueless about as abortion. To be clear: IT IS A LOSING ISSUE FOR US! The majority of Americans, including swing voters, are (A) pro-choice (though open to some limitations), and (B) worry that Republicans will impose hardline draconian bans on all abortions. Youngkin did everything he could to reassure these voters, against an onslaught of lefty propaganda. It wasn’t enough.
The blueprint for 2024: Yes there will be plenty if anti-Trump demagoguery. But more importantly, Democrats will hammer abortion endlessly. It’s been successful over and over. The GOP still has no effective, persuasive response; Youngkin’s was pretty good, but apparatus unsuccessful. This is a huge huge problem. I don’t have any sort of realistic solution, but at least I’m identifying and acknowledging the problem. That’s the first step.
Campaignining in Trump’s gigantic shadow, Vivek continues to impress:
Vivek Ramaswamy destroys Ronna Romney McDaniel, demands she come on stage and RESIGN, says Joe Rogan and Elon Musk should be hosting the debate instead of hacks like Kristen Welker who pushed the Russian Collusion Hoax
For those of you wanting Trump to stay in the campaign, here’s how he reacted when the Governor of Iowa threw her support to Desantis.
He forgot to mention that she has kooties and she can no longer sit at his table during lunch in the school cafeteria.
The Reps have to hammer partial birth abortion, but they’re too squeamish. The Dems hang “not even for rape” on Reps. They have to counter with the same tactic – assign the most extreme position to all.
Notice that abortion ads from the Dems never articulate their position, just attack Reps extremes.
Negative ads work. Do the same or lose.
I can’t believe we are going to lose this country because of self absorbed, idiotic girls and crazy cat ladies!
This is ‘A Great Spiritual Battle’. LOL. But it really is.
The Reps need to take the bull by the horns and own the abortion issue. Everyone knows they are equivocating. OWN IT.
Everyone in this country under the age of 35 has seen their 8 week old self on the ultrasound.
Challenge their hypocrisy.
What? THEY deserved life because they weren’t inconvenient at that particular moment?
This is winnable. I know because I used to be one of the idiots that believed in ‘A Woman’s Right To Chose’.
Right up until I saw my son on the ultrasound.
Reps need to state this position:
No tax dollars for abortion.
Respect the will of the voters, per Dobbs.
Pray for a change of heart.
This is what I say to my middle aged libbie friends.
They have no answer.
Especially the ones that have kids. Believe me, they would move heaven and earth to prevent an abortion by their own adult daughters.
It’s either fight the good fight and maybe lose an election here and there.
Or lose everything.
“Respect the will of the voters, per Dobbs.”
????!?
Dobbs didn’t outlaw abortion: it turned the issue back to the states, so it’s up to each state’s voters to decide how abortion is regulated. That’s exactly what they’ve been doing in Kansas, Florida, Ohio, etc.
So yes, states’ voters are already respecting Dobbs.
We need to think in terms of what to do for ourselves and our families when Democrats have total control of the house, senate and Presidency. A Packed Court, DC and Puerto Rico states, Federally enshrined ballot harvesting and a pursuit of banning the electoral college will mean the Republican Party will be a regional party with zero federal power for the foreseeable future. If you possibly can, move to a rural area in a Red State, have a house on land, keep your family close, have a circle of like minded friends, make sure you are adequately armed, make sure some of your wealth is in hard assets, pray.
Why are we even talking about election “results”?…since election “results” are compromised BY DESIGN.
IOW, election corruption is NOT A FLAW in the system…and for some really head-scratching reason, ONLY ONE PARTY SEEMS TO BENEFIT—oh! I forgot! That’s the only party that seems so gung-ho about “FORTIFYING” elections…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/election-issues-continue-problems-polls-kentucky-mississippi-pennsylvania
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/connecticut-judge-voids-democrat-mayoral-primary-calls-video-apparent-ballot
(BTW, I’d LOVE to be proven wrong…so take yer best shot—BUT no, “There’s no way we can prove it” just won’t cut it anymore, but rather will only serve to reinforce the claim”.)
buddhaha – You’re right about hammering the extremes on abortion, but I’m not even sure that will work now. The media is a monolithic propaganda outfit for Democrats. Supposed “mainstream” sources would run special responses to every ad parroting the old talking points about how rare post viability abortion is. (We’re only killing 10k per year in this particularly horrific way. It hardly ever happens!) It’s the best play there is, Republicans should try it, but I’m not optimistic that it will work.
Also, post Dobbs Republicans have done incalclable damage to the pro-life cause by pushing for bans without rape and incest exceptions. Sadly, I’d add the push for six-week bans as well. Also sadly, I think J.D. Vance’s take on Ohio’s vote was on the mark. If you make people choose between extremes, there are a lot of people who will chose the pro-abort extreme. (Especially if it is sanitized with seemingly-moderate language as the Ohio referendum was.) It doesn’t help that pro-aborts have put out some of the most, vile cynical lies that I’ve ever seen in American politics since Dobbs (i.e., advising doctors of a made-up “imminence” standard for health exceptions, telling people that abortion laws prevent treatment for ectopic pregnancies and miscarriages, and the like). But the pro-life movement went too far, too fast and the pendulum is swinging back, hard.
It’s going to take time, and sadly, I’m afraid, more tough losses before things will move back in the pro-life direction. In the interim, that is almost certainly going to necessitate voting for Republicans who are “pro-life” the same way that, say, Joe Manchin is – i.e., in favor of legality and general availability but against public funding and late term stuff. Given the current state of the culture, that may be the best that the pro-life movement can expect. And the alternative isn’t going to be more strongly pro-life Republicans. Those Republicans can’t win except in the deepest red states. The alternative to moderately pro-choice Republicans is extreme ghoulish Democrats.
Another point regarding Trump and the GOP – Democrats have put togther an impressive GOTV machine. Anti-Trump animus is a big driver of that, but not the whole of it. Election law changes that allow Democrats to channel their money and enthusiasm advantages into raw votes are also another big factor. But there’s no denying that Democrats GOTV works, and works well. It works so well that, combined with GOP weakness, it’s warping the republic by allowing Democrats to win elections that they richly deserve to lose.
You can knock the “GOPe” all day. You can mock ORCA and point out that the “GOPe” GOTV machine was inferior to Democrats’ operation. (You’ll get no argument from me.) But the “GOPe” had a nationwide GOTV operation to build from. Where’s the MAGA GOTV operation? For pity’s sake, Trump is more focused on “punishing” Republicans who fail his loyalt test than he is on turning out his voters for other Republicans.
And it wasn’t more than about ten or fifteen years ago that the GOP always had a huge money advantage in elections. Where did that go? Now Republicans more or less count on being outspent by at least 3-1 in any close election.
Maybe destroying the “GOPe” hasn’t worked out so well? Maybe reform and coalition building would have been a better option? At the very point that the Democrats have built what may be the most effective GOTV machine in American history, Republicans have set themselves on fire.
So regarding Trump – none of this will begin to heal until he is off the scene. The man doesn’t build anything. The Trump coalition won a single election by the skin of its teeth in 2016 and has lost or underperformed in every election since them. The Trumpified GOP is a one-way ticket to Democratic domination of government for a generation.
But this isn’t magically fixed with Trump off the scene. The residual anti-Trump hate that helps drive Democrats GOTV is going to tail off slowly. And most importantly, the GOP will have to build something to compete with the Democrats GOTV operation. The first step is to build an operation that is close enough to Democrats machine that the GOP has a fighting chance to punish Democrats when they fail in office as miserably as they have in the past three years.
But none of that recovery can start until Trump is finished.
And I would add – don’t count on forifying elections. We may be able to do that in the deep red states, and should. But you need power to change election laws. Republicans aren’t well positioned to gain full power in blue and purple states any time soon.
And asking voters for power so that you can manipulate election laws in your favor is not a winning play.
The only play is to find a way to win with the systems that Democrats have created. And get ready for them to take that system nationwide in 2025.
Thanks to all who commented. A great learning moment here for all who take the time to read this entire thread. Thanks Neo, et al.
The Dobbs decision was as I predicted a pyrrhic victory and a great gift to the Democratic Party.
“Now, wish the heck he would go play golf.” – JD Keene
Same here!
Bauxite you are absolutley right and the Republicans have justifiably earned the moniker “The Stupid Party”.
It’s sad to think that the only way the Republicans win next November is for the economy to totally crash due to obvious Democrat mismanagement, and the voters turn against the Dems en masse.
Either that, or a series of coordinated terrorist attacks inside the US and the public looks to the Republicans as the better choice for internal security.
Here’s someone who’s less than convinced…though I’m not sure he has any concrete answers…
“Propaganda works”
https://instapundit.com/616169/
Problem is that the same propaganda that’s demonizing Trump (and his supporters) is also demonizing the US…oh, and Israel.
Go figure…
the dems resort to subterfuge, in kansas, in the run up to the ahia referendum (the lead opposition county) couldn’t get their votes out, they want to kill as many children, as hamas wants to do overseas,
the bodycount in blue bergs seems to be like the death price we saw in Central America in the 80s,
“So regarding Trump – none of this will begin to heal until he is off the scene. The man doesn’t build anything. The Trump coalition won a single election by the skin of its teeth in 2016 and has lost or underperformed in every election since them. The Trumpified GOP is a one-way ticket to Democratic domination of government for a generation.”– Bauxite
1. There will be no healing. Like all authoritarian impulses the left will mock every conservative/traditional value, drive a stake through its metaphorical heart, burn it in a bonfire and scatter the ashes in the deepest sea.
So much for the hyperbole– but my point stands.
2.Actually, Trump recognized the rust-belt democrats that Reagan tapped into and formed a coalition. What made Democrats so mad is there was not a chance Trump would win. So don’t diminish what he did. The left realized the power he had awakened and used every dirty, despicable, underhanded, illegal smear to marginalize and destroy his agenda. And that included the GOP.
3.The magnitude of the lies leveled on a daily basis did its work. Trump was continually accused of doing what the left itself was doing. Every day. Every day you would see five to 10 stories about some crime, some evil crime Trump had committed or was thinking of committing. Or how stupid his ideas were, laughably stupid, appealing to the racist, white supremacist, trash that was the MAGA movement.
Yes, there will be no healing.
“Thanks to all who commented. A great learning moment here for all who take the time to read this entire thread. Thanks Neo, et al.” – JD Keene
Keep commenting. Your opinion is valuable, even to those who may take exception to it.
And this is a great place to comment– as the discussions are almost always civil– and even the heated ones can’t compare to the vitriol that passes for dialogue on most blogs.
@J.D. Keene
Fair enough and to each their own. But to be honest I am not sure how much he truly thinks he can win (he certainly is egotistical and confident enough to believe it) so much as he believes he has to put up a decent show, and try to help highlight the political and partisan nature of the persecution. But I wouldn’t rule him out.
I’d be happy with him going to play golf, but realistically speaking he *can’t.* Even if he isn’t the nominee or lost, what hope is there of him living a quiet life without the vindictiveness of the left? He’s not Dubya Bush and Dubya had plenty of issues (they just tend to get glossed over as Bush made himself to be more and more of a convenient tool for the MSM and the Secret Service quashed many of the more obvious threats, but there are still a lot of cadres among the Left and Islamists that want him and his entire family dead).
So in many ways I don’t see any realistic way out of this for Trump, save Through It. Which fits with Trump’s natural inclinations as a fighter to go out swinging. For all of the man’s MANY MANY Flaws, he is a fighter (arguably to a fault to the point where he will fight far beyond what is called for).
But the converse I’d argue is: What environment do people have hope for things being better in now? And what conservative, republican candidates can win in this kind of environment?
@buddhaha @Molly Brown
Well said indeed. It’s hard for me to underestimate how gut instinctual the “sacrament” of abortion is. A relative of mine is generally reliably conservative and right wing and a Trump supporter (albeit on more of an instinctual level than I am, and someone who is kind of in favor of Trumpism without Trump’s personality), but she had an abortion when she was young with a boyfriend who both agreed wasn’t ready for big time, and it’s Impossible for me to understate how much this has affected her vote. It’s why she would rarely vote against abortion at all, and particularly not for things like the attempt to jam through such an absolutist prohibition as happened in Ohio.
And the Republican and Conservative wings have little answer for people like that. And it’s a problem because most female voters like that are actually more leftist than my relative because unlike her they will allow their experiences and biases to drive them further to the D Category. We can debate all about the merits of a world without legal abortions all the while, but that arguably has even less relevance or importance than the old “Angels Dancing on a Pin” theological debates because those debates were attempts to grasp the real world as it existed (or at least was understood to exist) using reasoned discussion.
Nobody is going to argue that a blanket abortion is going to work in the US and be somewhat sane.
Which is why unfortunately I feel we have to learn to “compromise” in order to actually get better results there. And the irony is “The Science” (TM) and other things should favor our efforts to do this. The growing science indicating the uniqueness and consciousness of the fetus even early in pregnancy is compelling and has thrown serious cold water on the left and the abortion absolutists.
Moreover, I’d also argue the left’s old canard about “Let’s Be More Like Europe” is something we can weaponize in this case. Believe me when I say I would usually be the very last person to be arguing for this given what a dysfunctional mess Europe is, but it helps show how the abortion issue has become so sacrosanct and devoid of any greater context or awareness. The US’s abortion laws are, by and large, deranged and far outside the norms for the world, and not in a good way. This can be shown by contrasting us with Europe and our Asian allies (in contrast to say the supposedly “Based and Redpilled” Russia with an abortion culture that can give Detroit competition).
We should be hammering the left on this. That the libertine Frogs and Swedes, the stoical Germans, and so on don’t tolerate this stuff. That they recognize how utterly deranged and even depraved it is. Which is why the abortion stances of Republicans would by and large be to the left of most of the bog standard socialist parties in Europe today (to say nothing of totalitarian nightmares like Ceaucescu’s Communist Romania, study of which was key to forming my own views on the matter).
This stuff can be a winner. It’ll be HARD and pushing uphill against the culture and the media, but it can be done. Attack them on the ultrasounds. Attack them on our demographics and the economic rot. Attack them on how depraved our abortion culture is and how it fits more with despotic, nihilistic messes like the PRC and Russia than with those supposedly cool, hip European or Asian countries the left loves blathering about and arguing we need to be more like on pretty much every other issue EXCEPT this one. And tell our friends and allies (and let’s be frank, they ARE our friends and allies, and in many ways among the most stalwart) to kindly shut up about ideas like removing Rape and Incest exceptions until we’ve cleared at least the first or second line of defenses. I disagree with Bauxite on plenty of things (as should become clear soon) but I agree that the hardline anti-abortion conservative republican hawks on things like Issue 1 in Ohio shot themselves and us in the foot multiple times on this and helped recruit for the enemy.
Ironically this is one rare place where Trump being a glorified Manhattan Limousine Lib of the 1990s mold is an advantage, albeit in a cynical/practical fashion because his views on abortion are one thing in line with the generally leftist public opinion on the issue and are a rare thing where the Left couldn’t go apescheisse on his views for without blowing their feet off.
(Not that that hasn’t stopped some of them, but they have been quite marginal and muted on attacking that for a reason.)
@Bauxite
It’s amazing how you can write a remarkably perceptive comment regarding the squandering of the Dobbs fruits, and then come back and write stuff like this when the Great Orange Whale comes up. It’s honestly rather embarrassing and it makes me go defend Trump more earnestly than I would.
Yes, they have. Indeed frankly the Democrat Party remain the all time champions of the Get Out The Vote machinery in American History, often be nakedly corrupt and self-serving means (see: Tammany Hall). We saw this ample times in 2016 and 2020 and we saw it again here.
But at least as terrifying is their skill at Battlespace MOLDING, whereupon they were seize upon any mistakes made by a conservative or republican champion and attack and demonize them remorselessly, and on the off chance they don’t make any the Dems will happily INVENT some.
Anybody remember Harry Reid’s “It worked, didn’t it?” Regarding Mitt Romney? or the calculated disinformation claiming that Hunter’s Laptop was Russian Disinformation by Deep State operatives (which yes Trump failed to get rid of, but so did virtually everyone else)? Or JFK’s Chicago Sneaker or Landslide Lyndon?
Indeed. I’d argue it is frankly of middling importance. The “special sauce” of how divisive and hated Trump is* relative to other Republicans is counterbalanced by his popular touch and ability to get out the vote, but it’s nowhere near as important as how the Left’s echo chamber and battlefield shaping have succeeded in painting every Republican POTUS or Presidential Candidate as Literally Hitler.
*Let’s ALSO not forget that a huge (not all, given his “Charming Personality” but a huge proportion) of that special hatred comes not from Trump himself but from leftist spindoctors systematically lying about and demonizing Trump by claiming he is something other than what he is or did something. For instance, the “Very Fine People” LIE, as well as the idea that he’s been some kind of appeaser of the Kremlin LIE. Which fits well with how they demonized both Bushes, McCain during the election (much as I hate him), Palin, and Romney (again during the election) and are working on doing similar with DeSantis. And arguably have been doing since at least Nixon if not Dewey.
All while whitewashing literal terrorists or terrorist enablers like Obama and Ayers and Tlaib.
I’d also argue it allows them to channel other advantages. Such as institutional power and corruption. 2020 is the classic example where the Left didn’t win by channeling an enthusiasm advantage because the Left didn’t have the enthusiasm advantage. We did.
Agreed. And it is one major thing the Right as a whole on all sides has largely failed to address. People usually focus on different aspects of the whole depending on their political and sentimental biases on the right, with “Trumpers” focusing on the left’s voter fraud and corruption and media dominance while “Anti-Trumpers” focus on their superiority in GOTV and legitimate voting and messaging, like the blind men groping at an elephant. But it’s all part of a greater problem.
And moreover, I can confidently say all of this without bringing up Trump’s weaknesses or strengths. Because even if Trump really were as weak or divisive or toxic as is claimed (and I don’t think he is) I can point to
Oh I will. Especially since their failures go far beyond what you detail here.
Indeed, most Republican attempts are for various reasons and have been for about a century if not more. Which is one reason we have been steadily losing.
If you have to ask that question, you haven’t been paying half as close attention as you claim. Now, in the interests of full disclosure I had forgotten ORCA even existed for a couple months before your post now, so thanks for that, but that underlines the weakness of it. Trump’s GOTV campaign has been evident for a while, and not just in regards to Trump. Let’s not forget it took him to a surprise victory in 2016 and got him the most votes of any Republican President in 2020.
It also succeeded in helping many relatively weak candidates (like Roy Moore) get into office locally (which is why the Left had to rely on divisions in the GOP as well as their media dominance to help bring them down) and made even the stinkers in Pennsylvania somewhat competitive. The “MAGA GOTV” campaign isn’t as centralized or branded as the likes of Romney’s ORCA but that’s also because
A: It can’t be, since it is much more decentralized and grassroots.
B: It wouldn’t benefit for it to be.
The issue with this is that, of course, that comes across with a bunch of problems. The MAGA GOTV efforts are massive but less disciplined and more instinctual and more tied to Trump personally. They’re also more vulnerable to infighting from amidst the Right. Which means that while they are capable of spectacular upsets they also average worse performance than the regimented Dem political machines (though I’d reckon they do better than the GOPe’s ones).
In many ways they reflect Trump and his strengths and weaknesses. And on the whole they’ve been more of a strength than a weakness, as shown by the about face in voter turnouts.
Which is why 2020 saw him win more votes than any Presidential Candidate in history except (Supposedly) Biden, and why the election turned into a statistically improbable squeaker centered around a few bellwether districts of swing states, where we’re supposed to believe Team D brought out the vote to usually unprecedented levels, ranging from “High Pitched Italian Elections” with their far-higher-turnout-than-ours results on the LOW side to “Lol Wards of Milwaukee turn out more votes than registered voters, and then have to ‘correct’ the votes from being GODDAMN PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE to Merely being PRACTICALLY impossible.”
Moral of the story: MAGA GOTV isn’t a serious weakness, and it definitely isn’t what lost us the likes of 2020 or a lot of other elections. And frankly it’s kind of silly to act otherwise.
Which is why I prefer to focus on things like the left’s institutional control, corruption, capacity for vote rigging, ability to get collaborators from our number, and mastery in the narrative and legal arenas. You can argue that Trump should have been better prepared for all of these, especially lawfare (and I won’t even argue that much against it) but that’s missing the point. Trump by all accounts did far better than basically any R has in recent history, if not all of history period in terms of GOTV.
And it wasn’t enough. So even IF we agree to remove Trump and replace him with someone else, what the Hell will we do to prevent all of these things from continuing?
That wasn’t true before 2020, as unworthy beneficiaries like Brian Kemp showed. But to be honest even if this were true, who the hell could blame him? It’s fairly clear he formed close working relationships if not actual friendships with many people like Pence, who stabbed him in the back.
Imagine being asked to put in time, effort, and exposure (While also fending off similar character assassination efforts from the Left and even legal action) to help with someone else’s campaign not knowing if they will stab you in the back like Kemp did when he (or his stooge lieutenants) nakedly lied and fed into MSM propaganda?
And that’s COMPLETELY BESIDES all the other cases that Trump has more of a problem with like DeSantis (and I’m not denying those exist). But I think it points to a more universal point that making this TOO MUCH about Trump (either whether laudatory or condemnatory) ignores. The Left’s ability to get reliable Judases from our supposed allies has been prevalent for a LONG time, as has the GOP’s ineffectiveness at countering this. Remember who was supposedly our front runner in 2008, McStain. Can you imagine any MAGA GOPer or the like getting the press or clout he did with his admittedly wretched track record (including in the military, because for whatever his heroism in captivity he royally sucked as an Airman) without being able to court the MSM with red meat at the expense of his colleagues like Palin?
Getting rid of Trump won’t “heal” that. At best you might be argue that it will let us take steps towards healing it, but frankly I don’t see it.
Depends on how you count it. It helped that a lot of the Left’s money were ostensibly grass roots or cycled through third party outlets. So it’s been eroding for quite some time, financially and demographically. Love him or Hate Him, Karl Rove was skilled at playing a weakening hand well. But Mark Steyn and others pointed out that you can’t keep running to victory with that.
And that was in America Alone, about 20 years ago.
Or maybe because the GOPe hasn’t been effectively combatted in quite some time (with Trump having one of the better among a slew of bad records, but still largely being impotent)? But combatted it needs to be, because I’m tired of guessing who wants to be the next “Maverick” or how many other Brian Kemps are waiting in the wings.
Problem: TRUMP FOCUSED ON THAT throughout his first term, especially after the nasty and contentious primaries. Which is why you saw so many GOPe stalwarts go out to at least openly kiss the ring and why Trump worked hard to elect GOP across the bored regardless of their prior track record, and why even before the Primaries were over he picked Pence (the supposedly respectable Conservative Christian who would be the responsible counter) to balance the ticket and assure conservatives.
(Gee, how did that turn out?)
Not many people will criticize Trump for focusing too much on reforming and coalition building because = like so much else that’s inconvenient to the narrative – that got memory holed, much like Dubya Bush’s attempts at multinationalism and coalition building or Epstein’s connections with many leading leftists. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t exist. They may not have been as adequate as they “should have” been (whatever metric one uses to judge such a thing), but they existed. And while they scored many dividends in 2016 and the couple of years afterwards they have begun to blow up in 2020. So even leaving aside Trump’s wounded ego, egotism, or pettiness (all of which I admit the man has), that would logically lead one to conclude that too much coalition building or focus on “reform” by getting in bed with the GOPe was probably NOT the right move and a different approach was called for.
Indeed, one doesn’t have to be a hardcore Trumper or “Burn It All To The Ground” person to have complained that one of Trump’s greatest weaknesses was his relative timidity in cleaning out “the Swamp” and purging people who frankly should have been purged. Of course, this tends to be portrayed as him not hiring on the right people or being a poor judge of character or engaging in nepotism when it’s narratively convenient (which to be fair are probably part of the truth) without touching on the not-so-convenient fact that this showed Trump was far more “responsible” than his critics made him out to be and more willing to work with the GOPe and Establishment.
And it didn’t serve him that well. Which also shouldn’t be a surprising, given how many people have compared him to the Tea Party movement (which was also betrayed by the GOPe and demonized by the Left as the Next Coming of Hitler).
At some point in time “Blame Trump” and “Trump has to go” ring fallow. Especially for many of us who have been conservative republicans before Trump and who have seen this particular Merry Go Round before.
To which I’d counter that Republicans have largely “set themselves on fire” due to the Left pouring gasoline at our feet and then going around looking for people who will strike a match. Like it or not, if the Republican Party held together around Trump like the Dems did around Clinton (and I’m not saying for ZERO dissention, after all many Dems turned on Clinton to one degree or another or criticized him to it), there wouldn’t have been a fraction of the turmoil or fire we’ve had. That says nothing about whether or not Trump in particular DESERVED that level of loyalty (which I think people can disagree on, though I’d argue he did), since we see similar with JFK and LBJ, the latter of whom clearly didn’t. Just that it wouldn’t have.
And ironically Trump broaching the L word of Loyalty was another thing the Left’s media spindoctors and a bunch of the shy sisters on the supposedly conservative republicans condemned him over. In spite of how we had already witnessed the catastrophic consequences of disloyalty among our party before (see: just about the entire careers of McCaine, Snowe, and Spector), and got an even sharper point here.
If Elections have Consequences, then it should be clear that inadequate vetting for elections and failure to hold the line Also have consequences. It’s also one reason why Trump was so appealing to many on the Right and STILL IS.
Pull the other one. He helped build an admittedly fragile Supreme Court majority that is one of our few remaining blocks on the Left’s power. He also built probably the largest mass movement in US History, personalistic and idiosyncratic as it is. There are more Pols in office in the US than you’d like to admit that hold office precisely because of his endorsement, and even more (including often rivals or even enemies) that benefitted from his support.
That may be convenient to memory hole but I’m not going to let it be memory holed.
Even if this were true (and it’s not the extent of it), the fact that this was accomplished against schisms in the party and being turned into Emmanuel Goldstein by the Left is nothing less than striking. And it certainly is more durable than “The McCain Coalition” or “The Romney Coalition” or the “McMullin Coalition”, the very phrasing of which indicates how hollow and nonexistent those things were.
Right, whereas the GOPe isn’t?
Let’s not forget that even in your unflattering and frankly blinders-induced caricature of the Trump Coalition’s achievements “won a single Presidential General election by the skin of its teeth” is a HELL of a lot more than the likes of McCain or Romney can attest to. Which is why I am inclined to write this off as not even effective or cogent criticism of Trump and his coalition because of the lack of any alternative.
You don’t say. It’s almost as if this is an escape hatch for a fundamentally flawed and biased argument made more on sentiment than on analysis regarding the Great Orange Whale, to try and shore it up against the possibility (I would argue probability) that it won’t fit.
The problem, as 2020 should have shown us, is that obsessing about “anti-Trump hate” as a main driver for Leftist GOTV was always wrongheaded. There’s a reason why Republicans have usually depended on relatively low voter turnout to
win for years (indeed, ironically until around Trump). A Party that ultimately can’t gin up its own drivers for GOTV is doomed. Trump and Rove may not share much in common but they were smart enough to recognize that, though their answers were quite different.
Again, the “MAGA GOTV machine” is probably the largest or at least second largest GOTV machine in American History, with the only question being where the Dems stack up. It however suffered from many key issues, such as lack of discipline, a cadre of loyal professionals, and above all facing the uphill battle of leftist institutional power and media dominance.
None of that gets fixed by Trump going away. Indeed, Trump was at least willing to contest the issue on the Left’s home field in the media by raising issues of Voter Fraud, in sharp contrast to the likes of Dubya, McCain, Romney, and even that other Great Satan, Nixon. And he was demonized for it in large part precisely because the Republican Party has been so permissive about Dem Machine Politics for so long (in some cases literally more than a hundred years, maybe 200 in some jurisdictions like New York).
It’s also why I keep seeing these things as being emblematic of a long string of failures among Republicans not learning either from Trump’s failures or the failures that helped catalyze Trump.
Which raises the question of if we CAN win with those systems. Especially without the threat of instability the Left’s paramilitary grassroots have. Which brings us to the issues like the Dem’s longtime dominance over New York and the Postbellum South.
And it’s also why focusing on “Dump Trump” holds very little appeal to me in lieu of other prognoses, even as someone who has never been particularly wedded to the Trump Cult.
@BrooklynBoy
Considering Bauxite managed to miss the greatest GOTV campaigns in Republican History, I doubt it.
The problem is that they justifiably earned that moniker well before Trump did (and indeed he positioned himself as an antidote to it). So acting like the main problem is him is a nonstarter for me, especially as one of the few remaining Loyalist NeoCons who has come to despise Dubya even as I defend parts of his record (and decry him for letting people like me do it more than he did, like with Iraqi WMD and Saddam’s ties to Al Qaeda).
Turtler – You lost me at “the greatest GOTV campaign in Republican history.” The greatest GOTV campaign in Republican history won 46.1% of the vote? Or are you referring to 2020 when he won 46.6%? Romney did better than that.
BTW – Did you know that Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry all ran what was, at the time of their respective elections, the greatest GOTV campaign in Democratic party history? They still lost. So did Trump.
(And Democrats weren’t foolish enough to go all-in on the Dukakis, Gore, or Kerry models going forward.)
Yes. Depressing results. Which augers badly for next year.
For example, should Trump lead Biden/Newsome by 5% in polls, I’ll expect the Far Left to win.
Turtler – Also, I think your comments on abortion are right-on. I like the idea of focusing on Europe.
@Bauxite
Let’s start with what we agree.
On that much we agree.
And so our agreements largely end from this point out, especially given your not-very-clever and even less honest shell game with statistics.
No, no Romney DIDN’T “do better than that.” And what is more, I KNOW YOU KNOW HE DIDN’T FROM THE WAY YOU CHOOSE TO FRAME THE RESULTS.
You choose to use vote Proportions (reported I might add), not vote totals, and not even Vote Turnout. Which is a curious choice when GOTV quite literally means “Get Out The Vote”, meaning that the metric is supposed to be about How Many Votes are GOTTEN OUT, not what proportion of those votes there are. So Vote Proportion is not only misleading, but not measuring EITHER Total Voter Turnout, Or Number of Votes For One Candidate. Aka the actual things that are at the heart of GOTV.
Which is KIND of important, because even if we don’t actually score elections based on raw vote numbers and still less on total people voting from the proportion, they’re still the key metrics for evaluating GOTV and its effects.
Now, let’s look at what the actual results you cite say, in terms of How Many Votes Gotten Out (VGO), that is the aggregate tolls, which I shall do using “respectable” MSM pieces accepting the official reports (which for reasons I’ve mentioned ad infinitum. If you wish to contest any of the tolls cited, PLEASE DO SO and provide sources but I think that it will be relatively safe to say that the exact tolls will not be subject of great scrutiny, at least in this regards.
For these purposes, I shall be using the FEC’s figures for vote totals and proportions, and the Election Project’s National Turnout Rates.
https://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present
Ready? Let’s begin.
2020, Trump: 74,216,747, with 46.8% of the vote with 66.6% Turnout (I am leery of this for obvious reasons, especially given Biden’s literally unbelievable figures, but let’s run with it).
2016, Trump: 62,984,828, for 46.1% of the vote with 60.1% Turnout.
2012, Romney: 60,933,504, for 47.20% of the vote, with 58.6% turnout
https://www.270towin.com/2012_Election/
2008, McCain: 59,948,323 with 45.7% of the Vote, with 41% Turnout.
2004, Dubya Bush: 62,040,610 with 50.7% of the Vote, with 40.4% Turnout
2000, Dubya Bush: 50,456,062 with 47.9% of the Vote, with 39.5% Turnout.
And I could go on, oh yes I could go on. And while this is overly reliant on the FEC’s counts and moreover on the figures they are getting being accurate (Which relies on us to believe Milwaukee and its 100%+ Ward Votes are normal), I think
A: This proves the point about Getting Out The Vote well enough, and the question of where the “MAGA GOTV” figures are.
and
B: That most official estimates of these elections will be broadly similar, usually to within a few thousand if not a few hundred ballots.
C: Romney having about 1% more in vote SHARE is almost entirely explained by a mixture of lower voter turnout and smaller US population in 2012 as opposed to 2016 and 2020.
If Trump had a lower proportion of the vote in 2020, it was because of
A: The Left’s own massive and formidable GOTV campaign
and
B: Corruption, vote rigging, and other funny business.
But neither changes the fact that Trump was far more successful at Getting Out The Vote (Which I remind you is primarily about THE NUMBER OF VOTES GOTTEN OUT) than Romney and that’s with the Official figures. Which would have us believe that Joe Biden received the most votes of any Presidential Candidate in History bar none, including the Lightbringer… but they were disproportionately clustered in urban Democrat dominated machine environments in crucial swing states. I think I’ve made my opinion of that presumption very clear indeed.
So let’s drop the gaslighting bullshit, Bauxite. And yes, that is what it is. Because gaslighting is one of the things I despise above all else, and for whatever your other failings I have no reason to believe you are incompetent or ignorant enough to ignore the literal meaning of the GOTV Acronym or the reported vote tallies.
And yet this is how you respond to even relatively gentle and reasoned engagement with your claims in good faith. Well, you’ve given plenty of reason for me not to bother with that any more.
And what Criteria, pray tell, are you using for that, Bauxite? Because I am very sure the Democrats of 1856 or for that matter 1932 would beg to differ.
If you believe Biden’s vote tallies. Which requires believing the likes of Milwaukee and Atlanta. Which is absurd on its face.
Depends on how you define by “all-in.” In many ways Dukakis gave way to Clinton, but left wing radicalism enjoyed a long march through the institutions with even the Clintons and the DNC’s voting tally shifting left.
But again, I note that Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry also didn’t receive the same nakedly implausible results (and the Gore 2000 counts were the most litigated vote counting in history even with the fallacious early call in the Florida Panhandle with the help of the Media).
I also note that Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry didn’t face anything like the kind of backbiting, backstabbing, or insubordination Trump or frankly every GOP President since Reagan (at least) did, with principled opponents like Zell Miller and Alan Dershowitz being marginalized if not outright expelled.
Because again, GOTV is important but institutional culture, discipline, and political hegemony are at least as important. Ironically failure to grasp this and exploit opportunities are one of Trump’s major failings in favor of attempts at coalition building, which turned to be successful with conservatives but manifestly unsuccessful with much of the “GOPe”.
Which I brought up.
Of course, you don’t have a good response to that. That’s ok.
What’s not ok is being utterly dishonest and gaslighting when your precious hunt for the Great Orange Whale is irked. And the fact that you think I don’t know what GOTV means (in spite of quite literally talking about it) or that I can’t dig up results is downright Insulting as well as stupid.
I don’t like getting insulting, Bauxite, but that doesn’t mean I won’t call out a gaslighting bullshit artist for what they are when they try and do a run at me. And that’s what you have made yourself to be.
Now, I and many other people would be far more interested in what you’d have to say about prognoses and what we can learn from the GOPe if you didn’t feel the need to be aggressively dishonest and lie by omission about evidence that does not fit your chosen hobby horse. Especially since I have been consistent that Trump had many strengths but also flaws, and the passion of his ground game and grassroots was a strength, but their indiscipline, temperamentality, and the centrality of Trump himself to them were weaknesses that could be alleviated with some attempts at greater organization and structure.
But honest assessment of that would involve acknowledgement of the sky high R vote turnout under Trump and questions of how to harness it, especially for people that are not Trump. As well as the centrality of leftist organization, GOTV, and corruption or machine politics even without Trump.
Oh and by the way? Your “oh so clever” attempt to have it both ways by pointing out Mitt’s 1.1% Vote Share increase in spite of being solidly beaten by the Dems in overall proportion and complaining about the Leftist GOTV, while simultaneously trying to focus on opposition to Trump as a major drive for that?
It’s not very clever, especially for someone trying to elevate Trump as so central a source of our ills as you do. Indeed, it provides ammunition to people like me pointing out the core problem of this WELL PREDATES Trump and indeed Trump emerged in part as a response to this, from both a cagey and egotistically ambitious Manhattan Mogul seeking his shot at thee big time and the grassroots conservatives angry at “losing gentlemanly” to leftist radicals under people from Romney to arguably Dubya Bush (who spent far more time condemning Trump than he did pointing out the WMDs people like my friends actually discovered).
But years later you still don’t understand that. And as a result, I find it unsurprising when your analysis winds up short, and often has to resort to shoestraps, duct tape, and even outright dishonesty to try and make it work.
I also note that at no point did you address my points that Trump was either THE best or at least ONE OF the best candidates at motivating GOTV for Republicans and that it was only through truly massive (and in 2020 I would argue notably suspicious) Dem turnout and an ALMOST unprecedently harsh campaign of demonization and misinformation that his proportion was less than Romney’s (and even then not by much).
If this is the best you can do, then you have failed. I could make a better argument for ditching Trump (and at times have come close to) without having to rely on Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics intentionally distorted to undermine context and ignore inconvenient contrary evidence.
The reason I don’t feel overly inclined to is simple. There are few viable alternatives proposed, even less in the way of proven alternatives, and very little in the way of concrete plans for how to make the “Dump Trump” plan work.
So either get better at arguing or just fuck off until you can actually remember what GOTV stands for and don’t think you can play a Carnie Shell Game by swapping out Vote PROPORTIONS for Total Votes and Voter Turnout.
“Let’s be more like Europe” was a common message in the ’70s and ’80s. I haven’t heard it since the health care debate in Obama’s first term. It’s not something we’re likely to do, given our incredible national debt and massive third world illegal immigration. Europe isn’t a particularly appealing model either, given its own own economic funk and the massive third world immigration over there. Another reason why no one is talking like that now is the Democrats’ move from bread and butter blue collar issues to DEI and the New Green Deal. Our left is as apt to give ideas to Europe now as to take them from Europe, and China occupies far more space in our national mind than Western Europe does.
The Reaganite idea of unleashing capitalism doesn’t have widespread appeal either. There’s more distrust of libertarian rhetoric now than in the past — on the left, on the right, and in the center. Trump did act to cut back meddlesome overregulation, but he was smart enough not to make that the cornerstone of his program.
@Abraxas
I hear it quite a lot both in debate and especially online. It is often a wedge used by the left to beat up on us (though of course they usually cherry pick what parts of Europe as well as which aspects). I just propose we turn it back in the left regarding le sacred abortion sacrament and show how out of touch American leftists are. It also will help undermine their efforts to paint the GOP as the most radical of radical parties when in reality, no we aren’t.
Oh agreed, and don’t get me wrong. I would prefer not doing it either since I look askance at Europe at the best of times. But desperate times call for desperate measures.
That shift is very real but blue color issues and bread and butter posturing are still endemic and they still do it. It is one reason you see attempts to foist the economy on Republicans and conservatives.
Agreed, and that is another threat. And why we need to join hands to clamp it down before we all end up infected. The left in Europe are trying to take the worse aspects of our condition and apply it there just as over here they take the worse aspects of Europe.
Indeed, and I think this is a key problem. Dependency is terrifyingly powerful and not at all to be underestimated, and we have been slowly seeping in it. I fear how palatable even necessary reforms will be.
Molly Brown @ 12:33:
“This is what I say to my middle aged libbie friends.
They have no answer.
Especially the ones that have kids. Believe me, they would move heaven and earth to prevent an abortion by their own adult daughters.”
Pending reading the rest of the thread, that is a powerful idea: even women that might not want to be mothers still eventually want to be grandmothers!
Turtler –
In 1988, Michael Dukakis won more votes than any Democrat had ever won before. In 2000, Al Gore won more votes than any Democrat had ever won before. In 2004, John Kerry won more votes than any Democrat had ever won before. (And recall that John Kerry believed that there were 100k fraudulent votes in Ohio but, like Trump, had no evidence to prove it.)
There’s no prize for being the most prolific vote-getter in your party’s history. If you want to win, you need to win more votes than the other guy (of course subject to the EC in presidential elections).
@Bauxite
You know, I’m not sure whether your goalpost shifting or your bad faith are more annoying. But you were about as fervent about banging on the drum about “Where was the MAGA GOTV?” as you were quick to change the scoring when I was able to point out that “actually, MAGA GOTV did pretty damn well IN SPITE of its staggering flaws, and would’ve been far more successful were it not for a mixture of Leftist GOTV being literally unprecedented, legal politicking, and Almost-Certainly-Fraud.”
But that does fit your convenient narrative about Trump being THAT bad and “maybe we should’ve listened to the GOPe more.” Especially since you couldn’t even bother contesting most of my points such as how Trump spent most of the years between 2015 and 2020 coalition building and burying hatchets (at least within the Republican Party, aka the stuff you argue he “should” be doing).
But suffice it to say, there’s a reason why I make and format my posts like this. So that it’s incredibly hard to blindside me, and also so that anybody else dealing with your insincere sophistry (and yes Bauxite, THAT IS what this is) can be able to use my walls of text as a reference and evidence.
Congratulations. Now compare that to the extremely intensive mobilization machines of the 19th and early 20th century in US politics, which not only featured extremely high rates of voter participation (albeit padded out to a significant degree by the corruption and machine politics of entities like Tammany Hall creating large numbers of outright imaginary ballots in addition to the “merely” corrupted or purchased ones) but also mass politics from both.
With the result being that in 1920, Coolidge alone won about a third of those that Biden is *supposed* to have won a century later, in spite of the overall national population being less than a third of what it is now LEGALLY, and even more distant illegally. And that’s before you factor in things like how women could not (legally) vote into 1918 and both legal and illegal voter suppression (yes, actual voter suppression) mostly by the Dems in the Jim Crow South, and the fact that there were exponentially fewer illegals voting.
The political machines of a century ago were much, much more astute than the current ones at GOTV and were generally much more thorough, not unlike we see elsewhere like in modern day Italy.
The idea that Dukakis ran the greatest GOTV campaign in democratic history at that time is at best torturing the evidence, and is more likely flat out false, especially given the forensic accounting of Tammany Hall etc. al. and what is now tacitly accepted from things like the Daley Chicago Machine (though they are still mum about giving much research).
Except Trump did have substantial evidence, albeit mostly circumstantial. Again, the “100%+ vote turnout in a Milwaukee Ward” is a matter of public record. As is a host of others. This is a good reference.
https://electionfraud20.org/
Moreover, you’re not SUPPOSED to have to have ironclad evidence of fraud (though there was substantial evidence of it, and a few people who got outright convicted for it) in order to open up a recount or audit. You’re merely supposed to have reasonable suspicion, such as irregularities. The “red flags.” And there were plenty of those too.
https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/12/i-asked-one-simple-question-to-people-who-work-with-fraud/
I challenge you to provide a fraction of those red flags for Kerry’s claims in Ohio.
I also note this came after the ugly squeaker of 2000, where I note the Dems made a habit of systematically rejecting and undermining the legitimacy of elections they didn’t win no matter how black and white the evidence was, as was the case in Florida.
No, there are plenty of prizes for that, including possible coattails and clout. It just doesn’t guarantee you the election of President.
HOWEVER, as you yourself admit, being the most prolific vote-getter in your party’s history is AWFULLY USEFUL for winning the election (and would be even moreso without the safeguard of the electoral college) and also for making friends and influencing people.
Which is quite literally why GOTV campaigns exist. To get out as many votes as humanly possible. It’s literally in the name, and I KNOW you understand the importance of getting out as many votes as possible because you just spent a comment whinging about the Dem mastery of it (while trying to argue that Trump was inferior to Romney and asking where the MAGA GOTV was).
That’s how you win the Presidential Elections, but you win most down ballot elections by getting the most votes. So obviously raw vote count is, while not decisive, highly important.
Because you might not be able to determine how fervent the other dudes are in GOTV and you might not even be able to control if inner city Dem political machines magically stop counting in the middle of the night or report plumbing issues, but you CAN work to make sure you get as many votes out.
And I know you know this.
Which is why you oh so quickly pivoted away and changed goal posts from talking about the importance of GOTV campaigns to pooh poohing them. Most likely when you realized that even the official figures bury the idea that MAGA GOTV was inactive or inefficient in comparison to Romney or McCain (which is again why you were so focused on the PROPORTION of the vote Romney officially got rather than either the Absolute Number of votes gotten, or the PARTICIPATION RATE of the Electorate as a whole).
In other words, you quite literally laser-focused on the least important part of the results for evaluating the success of something as a GOTV (as opposed to in Presidential politics, where being able to win the popular vote but lose the EC is a feature rather than a bug), because it was literally the only metric of the three that kinda, sorta supported your narrative of Trump Bad, Y Not Listen To GOPe?
At least, if you doused your eyes in water and were insistent on squinting at it a certain way.
But in context, Trump’s GOTV efforts were quite successful, ESPECIALLY by historic GOP standards. And you can’t seriously deny that. Which is why you are intent on pooh poohing the results or the importance of that accomplishment.
And you’d kind of have a point (after all, Football teams don’t play for First Downs and the EC means raw voting only goes so far). But you don’t want to admit this cements MY points even more completely.
Namely, that for whatever his strengths or weaknesses, Trump was not the singular problem with the GOP you want to make him out to be, that the “GOPe” also fell down quite badly in these regards too (usually worse than he did for the past couple decades, with Bush’s 2004 victory being the big exception), and that all of this points to more intractable and systematic problems such as Leftist GOTV, messaging supremacy, and political screwballery being the primary issues, and Trump’s foibles being secondary.
If not tertiary.
And that ANY Conservative politician will have to deal with many of these key problems to a greater or lesser degree, and Trump was not the worst person in the world to contest this fact, especially given the GOP’s track record of genteel concessions to voter fraud (like is now acknowledged was the case with JFK’s defeat of Nixon).
I have a love-hate relationship with om, but his “concerned conservative” label on you is pretty telling. I’d have far more respect for you if you didn’t have to shift goal posts or turn yourself into a pretzel but could actually take and address cogent critique worth a damn (as I take pains to do with how I format it). Brian E also pointed out your staggering naivety and willingness to abide by the opposition’s premises as well as a huge amount of wishful thinking.
Because beating on the Great Orange Whale isn’t an electoral strategy. Indeed, as we can see here it is probably a SUBSTITUTE FOR an electoral strategy, escaping into fantasy to avoid dealing with the long running problems in the GOP. Ones that Trump was not responsible for and in fact in at least SOME cases was more successful than most in dealing with.
And in the meantime we’ve seen the Dems manage to elevate January 6th from whatever the disreputable truth was into a cardinal crime on par with the Reichstag Fire, managing to Memory Hole the Puerto Rican NazBol terrorist attack on it and now the Hamastitute one, all while justifying holding people without due representation for years in horrible conditions.
Arguing that “Without Trump we wouldn’t have seen that happen/wouldn’t have to deal with that” could be completely true (though I doubt it) while also completely missing the point. The depths of that kind of narrative control, persecution of wrongthink, and propagandizing means that GOTV or ditching a given party leader is not going to work.
You’re incredibly annoying when you bend yourself over trying to avoid the obvious points. I’ve been more than happy to concede your points where I think they have value, but you flipped from going “Where was MAGA GOTV?” and “Maybe Trump should have coalition built with the GOPe!” to “GOTV doesn’t matter unless you can outvote them!” (as if GOTV wasn’t a key component of that) and not even addressing my points about Trump’s coalition building. Among a host of others.
And Gaslighting is psychological abuse that earns no good will or favor from me, and usually doesn’t from those that notice it.
turtler, you can bluster all you want. It seems to me that I’m simply speaking a truth that you would prefer not to hear.
You need more votes than the other candidate to win. That’s not gaslighting, it’s reality. For the foreseeable future, elections are likely to be very much as they have been for the past few cycles. Very high turnout is likely to continue. Election month is not going away. Mail-in voting is not going away. That’s not psychological abuse, it’s reality (as if commenting about political strategy on a blog could be pyschological abuse).
Frankly, continuing to insist that Trump’s GOP is some kind of GOTV juggernaut is the real gaslighting here. This is Al Davis – just win, baby. Trump doesn’t.
Maybe this is just the nature of populism. William Jennings Bryan had to lose three times before Democrats finally wised up. Thanks goodness Trump isn’t about ten years younger.
ConcernedConservative™ whines that Turtler saw through his spun stats.
Because Great Orange Whale must be slain.
@Bauxite
I can and I will, but I am not dependent on bluster. Nor is my case. That is one important thing that separates me from you, because bluster and sophistry is REALLY ALL YOU HAVE on this matter. As I was able to prove by systematically tearing many of your claims and premises apart.
And you seem to understand this even if you don’t want to admit it. Someone who flips their argumentation on its head from playing up something to pooh poohing it does not give the indication they are confident in their own evidence or argumentation, or integrity. But that’s precisely what you did when I pointed out the relative strength of “MAGA GOTV”, which is why you’ve had to try and purposefully ignore the very meaning of GOTV.
And it seems to me you are a lying, biased person with their head up their ass who pointedly does not want to address the truths I put forth, as well as the evidence.
And now you’re projecting, because you can’t actually sustain your argument worth a goddamn.
You asked where was MAGA GOTV. I pointed out MAGA got more votes than any Republican in US history to this point did, and by a significant margin (no less than 2 million votes in 2016, and far more than that).
You couldn’t rebut this, so you deflected by claiming that raw vote count doesn’t matter compared to the EC and number of votes the opposition got. Which is true but misleading and not what you were talking about. It’s not the business of a legitimate GOTV campaign to suppress or remove the other side’s votes, it is just to get one’s own votes out (HENCE THE NAME), and by that metric “MAGA GOTV” did far, far better than Romney.
You claimed Trump had no evidence of voter fraud like Kerry did about the 100k in Ohio. This is demonstrably false as my links show, and that’s even ignoring the vast field of Soviet May Day Parade style red flags around them.
And so on, and so forth.
I don’t think many people reading both of our comments would think I am the one ignoring truth, let alone truth you sprout. I format my posts so I can address ALL of what those I address say, and I am not shy about conceding a point and notifying about it when I think that is warranted.
You on the other hand cannot address what I have brought up, much like you have not addressed what Brian E brought up. It is classical magical thinking.
Especially since you have NOT ONCE addressed the core of my point: that Trump’s GOTV efforts were demonstrably superior to those of the “GOPe” and Romney etc. al, meaning that we have scant reason to believe ushering Trump off stage would not be nearly the success story you think of, and that Trump was partially a reaction to failures in enthusiasm, GOTV, and fidelity by the GOPe.
Facts noted by our host.
I see what you did there.
For the record chowderhead: I wasn’t accusing you of gaslighting for the observation that you need more votes than the other candidate to win. I was accusing you of gaslighting for (among other things claiming MAGA GOTV was inferior to the GOPe GOTV by shifting your bases to judge GOTV on the basis of Vote *Share.* Which is NOT how anybody rational would judge GOTV effects PRECISELY BECAUSE it doesn’t measure the effects of GOTV, which is about voter participation and raw vote number on one’s own side.
And I know you are smart enough to realize this, so there is literally no excuse.
Add that to the idea that there was “no proof” of fraud and pooh poohing it in spite of the huge amount of circumstantial and more direct evidence to the contrary and how this would involve trusting the likes of Detroit and Milwaukee with wards that have more than 100% voter turnout, and you’ve clinched it.
And now you’re at the point of gaslighting about your gaslighting like a real piece of crap. Which is again an important part of why I format my posts like this, so that I can catch rhetorical sleight of hand like this.
But moving on.
If more votes alone winning true, we’d have a President Al Gore (at least if we assume the Media’s helpful suppression of votes in the Panhandle and the like remains) or a President Nixon elected in 1960. But it’s not.
The electoral college comes into play, AS Does the question of voter integrity. This is not conspiracy theory peddling, as even the captured Academia will produce work about Democrat Party vote rigging…. so long as it is decades in the past in the likes of Tammany Hall or the Postbellum South, and to Detroit in 1960.
But apparently we’re supposed to believe that’s all in the past now and Creepy Joe campaigning from his basement got more votes than any American in human history while Detroit and Milwaukee churn out reports that have greater than 100% turnout in multiple Dem dominated wards and the 2020 Election has a whole is so “fortified” it stinks to high heaven using the indicators we have for fraud?
Yeah, bullshit. And the fact that you can’t coherently address this but instead are slavishly dependent on “Trust Detroit” and what follows from that for the premises of your argument speaks to the fundamental weakness of your approach.
And all of those would be real challenges but ones that could be overcome through conventional campaigning (Though I note you have not provided evidence to argue the GOPe would be more success at this than Trump).
But the left having control of what passes for our media and law enforcement able to do things such as brush over Democrat Machines turning out Italy-style voter turnout while the left can put out official-sounding releases of Hunter’s Laptop being corruption can’t be solved by “Vote Harder” alone.
So you/re 0/3.
You’ve not provided any evidence that the GOPe or the like would handle GOTV under these circumstances better than Trump (and indeed the available evidence indicates VERY MUCH THE OPPOSITE).
You’ve not provided any explanation for the likes of Milwaukee and Detroit and Atlanta with their results and how to “fortify” against these, indeed you’ve admitted the Right will not likely be able to fortify elections against these.
And you’ve not provided any reason for people to believe that coalition building with the GOPe will be suitable to deal with this.
And you want others to believe I’m the one ignoring the truth?
Yeah, good luck with that gaslighter.
That’s not psychological abuse, but trying to flip reality on its head to the point where raw vote numbers are not the metric for GOTV is. Pretending there was no evidence of fraud and corrupts machine manipulation (which are distinct but overlapping metrics) is both wrong and psychological abuse. And I have no reason to believe you DON’T understand this, which is why you do not address the merits of the cases.
Oh and propping up strawmen that say I am claiming something that isn’t gaslighting is gaslighting so you can knock that over?
ALSO gaslighting.
So congratulations Bauxite, you’re acting like a really deceptive, abusive piece of shit right now.
Unfortunately for you, this isn’t my first rodeo with this kind of nonsense either on political blogs or in real life. Which is again a reason why I format my posts like this.
And so the abuse and gaslighting comes full circle and culminates in the classic gaslighter’s strategy when confronted with evidence of their abuse. Doubling down and gaslighting about the gaslighting, and accusing the person who provided evidence of that abuse of being the gaslighter. “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes? They’re the abuser!”
Unfortunately for you, not only have I taken pains to catalog the evidence but this is so TYPICAL of the trapped, identified gaslighter.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/here-there-and-everywhere/201702/why-gaslighters-accuse-you-of-gaslighting
It’s disgusting, disgraceful, and at this point goddamn idiotic.
“Frankly, continuing to insist that Trump’s GOP is some kind of GOTV juggernaut is the real gaslighting here”?
Trump’s success at GOTV is a matter of record acknowledged even in the official Vote Returns, you Bullshit Artist. By any actual metric of Getting out the Vote, Trump did.
Which is why you moved the goal posts. You’re still trying to move them by arguing GOTV doesn’t matter (and thus you can ignore MAGA’s successes in doing so) because they (allegedly) didn’t capture the popular vote.
Except GOTV is about your own side’s voter turnout, both in numbers and in rate.
He won more than Romney or McCain did, and has generally had a better track record than much of the GOPe. Which means that in addition to yet another goal post move from you, this is not actually something that helps your argument that much.
Possible, though the support bases of Bryanites didn’t die when Bryan did (though they did shift). And Populism isn’t some kind of Great Satan in and of itself, unless you’d like to argue on behalf of the merits of LBJ and Hillary Clinton.
And once again you miss the goddamn point by trying to make this all about Trump. Which MIGHT be somewhat understandable in a way, given how many of Trump’s loyalists and maybe even the man himself (though I do think there’s significant evidence against that) have tried to make it all about him.
But Trump wasn’t the end all to be all of MAGA or Conservative Populism in the US. Indeed, in many ways he is something of a johnny come lately, coming in to the void left by the post-Dubya fratricides in the GOP and the squelching of the Tea Party Movement.
And if you think that one has to be a cultist of Trump to notice the baleful impact the Left’s corruption and suppression against him has, then you haven’t even paid attention to the blog you’re commenting on or our host.
So whatever happens to Trump, we still will have to live in the US where these issues remain. And you’ll have to deal with people like me who remember you being a gaslighting asswipe because you couldn’t debate your points in favor of arguing “Trust Detroit’s Returns” and “Maybe the people who didn’t win the elections in 2008 and 2012 and who have continued to underperform in part because of their entitlement and hostility with the base would win this time.”
And you wonder why so many of us have distrust at best or outright hate towards the GOPe and people like you.
Even if you want to be gaslighter trying to convince us our own lying eyes and the supporting evidence are false, you should know better than to think it’d be very effective on this blog of all places, and not against me (because I format my posts precisely to avoid this kind of stuff).
Heh – I moved the goalposts from winning more votes than any previous Republican to actually winning the election. How dastardly of me.
if votes cannot be verified, then they don’t matter, look at the sargasso sea that is Fulton County, where the suburb of Buckhead tried to succeed, for safetys sake, and Kemp said ‘you have to stay in the big muddy’
@Bauxite
Yes it is. Friendly reminder of where the fuck you started this parade of Orange Man Bad bullshittery:
In other words, you were arguing that “MAGA GOTV” was much weaker than “GOPe GOTV” and asking where MAGA GOTV was. Which you then used – tritely and predictably – to argue Trump was central to our problems and we needed to get rid of him.
The problem is that this is absolute bullshit, and particularly was in 2020 and previous. Not only did Trump prioritize coalition building and vote getting for himself AND Republicans (including GOPe members) down ticket prior to 2020, but this had results in the form of the largest Republican turnouts in history, and higher than average in off elections. This is the Very Essence of Get Out The Vote (GOTV): Getting Out Votes.
And I know you know this, not only because it’s a matter of the record but also because you very quickly shifted from asking where MAGA GOTV was (with the obvious implication it was absent) to complaining that it wasn’t enough because the Dems (SUPPOSEDLY) got more votes out.
The problem is that this is the opposite point of what you were hammering on before, namely the relative weakness of Conservative GOTV and trying to argue MAGA GOTV was inferior on the whole to GOPe GOTV.
And also ignoring how this undercuts your Anti-Orange Whale point that this is somehow particular to Trump for the reasons I mentioned, namely that an honest assessment of this points to it not only afflicting the GOPe, but if anything doing so WORSE than it did Trump. And made even worse by other factors like corrupt Dem political machines in Detroit. All of which you ignore because it doesn’t fit your Orange Man Bad narrative.
That is legitimately dastardly. It’s being an abusive, gaslighting piece of shit by implying MAGA didn’t Get Out The Vote and that anybody who says otherwise is deluded, and as a result we must ditch Trump and anybody who is not persuaded by your dishonest, statistically illiterate sophistry is in denial.
And I’m not going to stop calling you out for being a lying crapweasel on these particular points.
I have plenty of differences with Brian E (indeed, even a cursory look at our debates on Ukraine will show that) but I’m not afraid to give him credit where I believe his points are valid, in the same reason I didn’t hesitate to avoid giving your points credit when I thought they were valid. And he pointed out how Trump is at least as much of a symptom of events as he is a cause, and how your prognosis involves extreme faith on the Dems that we have no reason to vest in them given their conduct.
In much the same reason I have no reason to vest much faith in your claims after I caught you lying to my face and trying to gaslight this comments section about the meaning of GOTV (Get Out The Vote) to try and fulfill your hate fetish regarding Trump.
Especially since, Objectively Speaking, your precious GOPe doesn’t have a better track record at winning elections.