A question of statistics: Jewish financial contributions to the Democrats?
Commenter “huxley” wonders, as does commenter “Mike K”:
“The other day I read a number that I have trouble accepting. It was that 50% of Democrat contributions come from Jews.”
Mike K:
I saw that too and wondered. Dunno.
I do believe that 10/7 has changed the game with Americans and American Jews.
It’s too early to tell whether that last sentence is true, but I can certainly check on the first part.
It took almost no time at all to discover what I believe is its origin, in this Jerusalem Post article written in September of 2016, shortly before the 2016 Trump/Clinton election. The headline goes like this: “US Jews contribute half of all donations to the Democratic Party.” Sounds similar to what is referenced in the comment by huxley and the one by Mike K, but right off the bat I noticed one difference: not “Democrats” but “the Democratic Party.” A subtle difference but perhaps a meaningful one, because many donations are to candidates rather than the party. And does the claim mean half of the total money collected, or half of all the individuals who donate?
Right under the headline we have this startling statistic in a subheadline: “Jewish donors give 25% of the Republican National Convention’s cash.” Now, that’s interesting; it seems Jews in general donate a lot to politics (I’m pretty sure they donate a disproportionate amount to charity, as well). And then in this article I discovered that for that same election cycle:
In 2016, 22% of Democrats and Democratic leaners and 10% Republicans and Republican leaners reported making a donation, according to data from ANES. This marks the first election since at least 1992 when Democrats have been significantly more likely than Republicans to donate.
So that year there were lots more Democrat donors in general, at least by percentages. Also, higher-income and more educated people were more likely to make donations, and I’m pretty sure that Jews are somewhat over-represented among those groups.
Then there’s this rather contrary piece of information regarding the same year:
Just 158 families, along with companies they own or control, contributed $176 million in the first phase of the campaign, a New York Times investigation found. Not since before Watergate have so few people and businesses provided so much early money in a campaign, most of it through channels legalized by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision five years ago. …
But regardless of industry, the families investing the most in presidential politics overwhelmingly lean right, contributing tens of millions of dollars to support Republican candidates …
It seems that 138 of the families gave to GOP candidates and 20 families gave to Democrats. There are no numbers for the total monetary amount given, but it’s a lot, as you can see by this:
The 158 families each contributed $250,000 or more in the campaign through June 30, according to the most recent available Federal Election Commission filings and other data, while an additional 200 families gave more than $100,000. Together, the two groups contributed well over half the money in the presidential election — the vast majority of it supporting Republicans.
It says “the presidential election” and the “Republicans” plural. Does this include the primaries? The whole thing is unclear, and it seems as though it might be separate from the other report which seems to concern DNC and RNC contributions.
Back to the text of the Jerusalem Post article:
… Jewish donors contribut[e] a whopping 50% of funds received by the Democratic Party and 25% to the Republican Party, [researcher] Troy says.
Although it’s still not clear, that may support the idea that these only involve contributions to the parties themselves, not to individual candidates. But now it’s time to go to Troy’s research itself, which can be found here. A relevant excerpt:
… Jews donate as much as 50 percent of the funds raised by Democrats and 25 percent of the funds raised by Republicans.
As much as – what on earth does that refer to? The document by Troy contains a long long history of the Jewish vote in the US, but it surprised me by being more of a history than a study. In fact, I couldn’t find the basis for remarks such as this, on which the 50% claim seems to be based:
In the 2016 presidential race the Jewish financial vote remains disproportionately important – with estimates that Jewish donors contribute 50 percent of the funds to the Democratic Party and 25 percent to the Republican Party.
“Estimates” by whom? Based on what? Donations to the parties? Or to candidates? Or to both?
I couldn’t find the answers to any of these questions. Later, on page 7, I found another reference to the supposed figure, but it added nothing:
… Jews donate as much as 50 percent of the funds raised by Democrats and 25 percent of the funds raised by Republicans.
“As much as”? What does that mean? Again, no answers, and no footnotes or source – just the bare statement. I see no reason to give it any credence, although of course it might be true. It does seem as though the Troy report is the source of the statistic that Mike K had cited and huxley mentioned. If you can find any other evidence about the ultimate source, be my guest. But in my experience it’s not unusual for these internet “truths” to be based on very little.
I also found this information about large individual donors in 2016 to Clinton or Trump:
According to the latest Federal Election Commission disclosure, American Jewish donors funneled more than $90 million into the presidential campaigns of Democratic nominee Clinton and her Republican opponent Trump. …
Making their contributions through campaign committees, joint fundraising entities and allied super-PACs, Clinton’s five biggest financial backers are Jewish, and so are Trump’s top two.
That’s close to the 2 to 1 ratio, but it involves a very small number of large donors:
The largest individual donor in this cycle has been Donald Sussman, a founding partner at the Paloma Partners hedge fund, based in Greenwich, Connecticut. Thus far, he’s given more than $20 million to Clinton’s campaign, mostly through a super PAC supporting her bid, Priorities USA Action.
Clinton’s four other top donors are JB and Mary Kathryn Pritzker, Haim and Cheryl Saban, George Soros and S. Daniel Abraham. Along with Sussman, they have collectively contributed $69.7 million to the campaign, according to an assessment by Bloomberg Politics.
No surprise that Pritzger and Soros were in there, Soros being a person of Jewish ethnicity who’s not just a secular Jews but by his own admission somewhat anti-Semitic.
Other prominent Jewish Americans who have poured money into Clinton’s bid are filmmaker Steven Spielberg, fashion designer Ralph Lauren, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and entertainment industry executive David Geffen.
No surprise there. As for Trump donors:
Trump’s largest funder is casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who has a propensity to donate lavishly to Republican nominees and whose donation to Trump was $10.5 million. …
The New York Times reported late last month that the Las Vegas billionaire had given up hope Trump would prevail on November 8, and decided instead to focus on down-ballot races and on trying to secure a GOP majority in Congress.
I guess he was wrong about Trump that year.
[Adelson] remains the single largest overall contributor in the country for 2016, as his family has given two super PACs supporting Senate and House Republicans $20 million each.
Trump’s second biggest donor is Bernard Marcus, the son of Russian-Jewish immigrants who co-founded Home Depot. He’s given $7 million to the former reality television star.
None of this tells us what percentage of the candidates’ donations were from Jews, nor does it tell us that for each party’s candidates in general. And this article (with the same limitations) offers a list of the top 15 contributors for the 2020 election. Five of them gave a total of about $142 million to Republicans, while the others gave about $176.4 to Democrats. That’s not as wide a disparity as one might think. But again, that’s only large individual donations (in 2020) and it doesn’t tell us what proportion of the total that is, although I’m pretty sure it’s quite significant.
However, this article contains an estimate of total spending in that 2020 election, by all parties. I have no idea if it’s correct, but the estimate falls somewhere between $11 billion and $14 billion. Those large individual donations I just discussed would be only a tiny fraction of that.
So I haven’t been able to find any substantiation for that 50% claim that makes any sense or seems based on any evidence.
Nurit Baytch has in some of her writings made reference to a piece of software which can estimate the percentage of Jews in a population by assessing surnames. There is also public data from the Federal Election Commission on federal campaign donations in excess of a certain sum. The threshhold value is, I believe, $250. I’m quite sure they have catalogued contributions as far back as 2002 and perhaps earlier. You could apply that software to FEC data to get an estimate.
Art Deco:
I’ll leave that up to you 🙂 .
Actually, though, the surname thing would be a poor measure. A lot of woman are married to Jews but are not Jewish, and they would be false positives. And a lot of Jews have non-Jewish surnames, which would be false negatives.
Don’t forget Sam Bankman-fried, even if it wasn’t his money to begin with.
Frederick:
I think that was in 2020. I was mainly researching 2016, the year of the Troy article.
It looks to me as though the polling, and resulting modeling, has driven the Democrats to try and split the voting pattern from financial donations from the Jewish community. Look at this map of the most spoken language by U.S. state after English and Spanish for a clue why:
https://wordfinderx.com/pictures/4eb81d37-a822-4085-ac59-022923037e6f_01_The-Most-Spoken-Language-Besides-English-Spanish-in-Every-State.png
At the coarsest level for the Presidential election, if Jewish voters stay home, the Democrats will still win New York and California, but if Arabic speakers stay home, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa might be in play.
—Reminder—–Reminder—–Reminder——Reminder
For at least 30 years, the vast majority of “Jews” in these studies are JINOs.
They (and their parents) have intermarried and are no longer Jewish according to Jewish religious law.
They (and their parents) have never belonged to a synagogue or other Jewish communal organization.
They (and their parents) are profoundly ignorant of the Bible, Talmud, and actual Jewish doctrine, beliefs and practices – even the Biblical ideas that are part of the secular Judeo-Christian ethic.
They (and their parents) have typically never visited Israel.
Christians: just think of these folks as “Liberation Theology” Episcopalians…. that’s about how “Jewish” they are. That’s their real faith…
regarding ‘158 families’
Right off the bat, ‘$250,000 OR MORE’ is a huge weasel statement that could obscure the amounts given by the small number of Democrats.
The other note would be that 2016 saw a huge field of GOP primary candidates with, on the Democrat side, Hillary facing largely token opposition so it’s not unlikely that aggregate Republican donations could easily outpace Democrat ones. There were also over twice as many GOP Senate incumbents defending seats in 2016 as Democrats (24 vs 10)
Excellent reminder, Ben David.
Actually, though, the surname thing would be a poor measure. A lot of woman are married to Jews but are not Jewish, and they would be false positives. And a lot of Jews have non-Jewish surnames, which would be false negatives.
==
I think the software is available commercially. It would offer a probabalistic assessment for each entry, I think. Baytch was one of three parties (another an academic sociologist and another a public health maven) who disputed Ron Unz contention that 25% of Harvard’s incoming classes were Jewish. The software’s analysis of surnames indicated the figure was around 8%. Unz erupted in a flurry of evasion, eventually accusing the three of them of being dolts.
Ben David:
Yes, I’ve been making that point for years. But people define Jews as they see fit, it seems. And there is also that nation/religion/ethnicity/people thing.
One thing that is clear about Jews is that as people become more religiously Orthodox their politics becomes more conservative.
For whatever it’s worth here’s some data from Open Secrets.
I didn’t do a detailed analysis, but it appears to me that the 25 or 50 top donors are pretty evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans may have had a few more of the top 100 donors.
Perhaps the “and the companies they control” skew the data more towards Republicans. Some of the big Democrat donors are inheritors who may not control any major businesses. Also, Open Secrets counts George and Alexander Soros separately.
Everyone on their list gave over $2 million to various candidates and entities. It stands to reason that if you go from $2 million to $250,000, from the superrich to the rich, you’d have more Republicans who own or run regional, rather than international, enterprises.
I suppose there are other factors involved as well. The Times didn’t look at data for the whole election cycle. In any case, I wouldn’t take their version as the last word on the matter.
The problem is that the monsters who think “the Jews” should be killed don’t much care about whether individuals are observant or have never been near a synagogue in their lives.
This from hotair.com: “Last week a group called Writers Against the War on Gaza organized a “statement of solidarity” which accused Israel of genocide. . . . The letter was signed by far left authors, academics and Hollywood-types including Susan Sarandon, Janeane Garofalo, Judith Butler, Lilly Wachowski, Cornel West, etc. There are literally hundreds and hundreds more, certainly well over 1,000.”
Question: Does anyone here know where I can get this list?
Given the vast reservoir of support for Hamas, Israel will need to be exceedingly thorough in eradicating it.
IrishOtter49:
https://www.writersagainstthewarongaza.com
Signatures follow the statement.
There are some of talent like lethem but many hacks
The importance here is the upcoming election, and the serious possibility that the US, for maybe the first time, won’t be fully behind Israel. The FJB Administration is under significant pressure to do just that, and they are responding, at least a bit. They desperately want a cease fire, now that Israel has moved into Gaza, so Hamas can get more of its fighters to safety, and a humanitarian safe route, for similar reasons.
So, what happens to that Jewish money? What happens if the 25% difference between the two parties switch sides (it won’t, at least at that level)? Of course, it would be impolitic to actually ask the question that way, but I think that it was implied.
Don’t expect any of the horrors we have seen to change American Jewish voting patterns much.
I grew up in S. Calif. Had many Jewish friends. The grand parents were Ashkenazim, Jews from central and eastern Europe. Yiddish was a common language.
The kids, like Seinfeld et al, could care less about Israel, or living a Jewish Life. They are more interested in a kind of hip, cool, yeah, I’m a Jew kind of thing. And they always voted left. and gave large sums to the left.
Your experience may differ from mine. I certainly hope so.
I also now have a number of Israeli friends. Only one has roots in the The First Aliyah, mostly from Russia, Poland.
the others I know are mostly Sephardic, and Moroccan. My friends are generally very dismissive of American Jews. The Temple with out G*d is how they express it.
I must stress that this is my own personal experience, in one part of the country. Although among my friends were a group of NY and NJ Jews, a few of whom understood Yiddish.
nothing that has happened, is going to change things for most of these people. Seinfeld or his friends could have a huge impact on the way this plays out. They could, but I doubt that they will.
I’m not aware of any public statements by any of the Hollywood Jewish elite, beyond some posturing.
My late mother, whose grandparents were murdered by Nazi Einsatzgruppen, somewhere in Eastern Poland or ukraine, used to say of the Jews she knew-If they can’t support Israel now, will they support Israel when they are loaded into box cars? I always blushed when she said that, never thinking that it would, or could happen again.
After seeing shops with the words Juden painted on them, or huge mobs in america demanding the death of Jews, i’m more convinced that it could happen again.
What is happening now is more like 1935-37 Germany, than the America that i grew up in. Time to wake up, when they tell you who and what they are, believe them dammit.
A few big political players may only give to one party or the other, but the smart money is to give something to both teams. Those players have skin in the game and usually are more at risk of reprisals then hope for reward.
That said, there will be social pressure to publicly conform.
I think it a wasted effort to draw broad conclusions on past giving but let’s hope big donors with a lick of Jewish identity get a bit more focused on push-back against those who would kill them.
Remember when Obama’s campaign “forgot” to check a box on their credit/debit card donation signup? Many millions of dollars were “donated” in small amounts on-line without proper location or tracking information. Think those bucks were from American Jews?
Related:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/11/a-jewish-political-realignment.php
+ Repost:
And in the latest installment of his long-running series on that vaunted Obamian humor: “The AUDACITY of Stand-Up Comedy”!…
Obama’s most audacious stand-up routine yet!
(Could it be his most wildly successful one!!?)
“Obama calls for end of ‘occupation,’ security for Israel, state for Palestinians;
“Obama called the Israel-Hamas conflict a ‘moral reckoning for all of us’ “—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-calls-end-occupation-security-israel-state-palestinians
(Hmmm. Does he see UN Secretary General in his future….?– the Moral Reckoning part is pure gold!!!)
@ Jom > “What is happening now is more like 1935-37 Germany, than the America that i grew up in. Time to wake up”
A timely reminder:
jrschindy on X:
This weekend, don’t forget to set your clocks back to 1938 Germany!
That was a reply to jim; probably time for me to go to bed and take advantage of that extra hour of sleep tonight.
Kate:
The problem is that the monsters who think “the Jews” should be killed don’t much care about whether individuals are observant or have never been near a synagogue in their lives.
Jim:
What is happening now is more like 1935-37 Germany, than the America that i grew up in. Time to wake up, when they tell you who and what they are, believe them dammit.
—————————-
Indeed.
The word “Ost-Juden” springs to mind.
The assimilated, established Jews of Germany and France convinced themselves that the antisemites’ sensibilities were only offended by the bearded, uncultured religious Jews from eastern Europe that dwelled in the ghettoes. Some of the most poignant Holocaust documents reflect their shock as they realize that they, too, were to be lined up against the wall.
Here in Israel we have something similar: the hardcore Lefties entrenched in media and other cultural pivot points have turned “settlement” from a positive Zionist value to a negative… Without entering into unseemly competition, there have been many instances of Pali atrocities against children and entire families….. But they happened to religious fanatic settlers (those bitter-clinger obstacles to peace!) … And so those tragedies were thrown down the memory hole. Mustn’t contradict the narrative…
One reason this pogrom has gained traction – and caused sleepless nights in New York and LA – is that this time the “right thinking” non religious Jews were slaughtered… And now find themselves abandoned by their progressive “allies”.
My So Cal upbringing pretty much the same as Jim’s – although most of my Jewish friends did have some Hebrew school and Reform Synagogue experience. And I agree that there won’t be much political ‘soul searching’ or change.*
Sister’s ex husband is exactly this type – plus being a ‘Red Diaper’ baby! His grandparents were minor celebrities in that world. Can only imagine the pretzel logic he’s indulging in right now.
Terrified for my nieces.
*Have to think that anyone who hasn’t already seen the light these last few years – ain’t gonna.
“ According to the latest Federal Election Commission disclosure, American Jewish donors funneled more than $90 million into the presidential campaigns of Democratic nominee Clinton and her Republican opponent Trump. …”
The FEC is a federal government agency. Why in H E double hockey sticks is it tracking donations by religion/ethnicity?
A few big political players may only give to one party or the other, but the smart money is to give something to both teams. Those players have skin in the game and usually are more at risk of reprisals then hope for reward.
If one currently heads a corporation one might want to hedge one’s bets so the corporation has friends on both sides. If incumbents are going to be re-elected anyway, you might as well try to make them happy.
But lately the really big money does seem to be ideological and lean heavily to one side or the other. The gap between the parties is too wide, political passions are too heated, and the donors’ attachment to one side or the other is too strong for big donors to give money in anything like equal amounts to both parties.
If one is lefty left and Jewish by accident, does that count?
Said it before; going to be funny/sad when Jews discover their safe spaces are Baptist churches and NASCAR events.
The most interesting part of Neo’s lengthy essay is that Soros donated to the Clinton campaign. Which Clinton?
@ Ben David > “Some of the most poignant Holocaust documents reflect their shock as they realize that they, too, were to be lined up against the wall.”
Andrea Widburg aka Bookworm posted an essay on the dilemma of the Jewish Democrats, which I also linked in another thread.
https://www.bookwormroom.com/2023/10/30/dear-jews-we-never-liked-you-we-were-just-using-you/
This is the accompanying graphic, also expressing shock in a particularly poignant form because of the Holocaust association.
https://www.bookwormroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Jews-not-needed.jpg
Is the essay saying that Jews chased all those “there” goals in order to be accepted? Not because they seemed laudable? That’s harsh.
Still, sincere believers may be easier to con.