What’s going on with the Israeli anti-Hamas offensive?
As with Ukraine, there are so many reports and so much speculation about what’s going on with Israeli plans for Gaza that it’s really hard to know who if anyone to trust.
There’s this report that they are waiting for the US to be able to protect its troops in the Middle East, with air support. And yesterday I found the following group, and although they have almost no traffic (and are quite un-telegenic), they seem to know a lot, have good credentials, and be covering many angles no one else seems to be talking about, including what’s going on in the Arab world post-October 7.
The entire video is worth watching, but I’ve cued up two short excerpts. Here are the participants:
Yoni Ben Menachem – A veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television who served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority
Also featuring:
Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, Former Director of the Military Prosecution for Judea and Samaria
Dan Diker, President, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
And here are the two brief clips:
Here are two more clips from another recent video:
PM Netanyahu addressed the Israeli people today since (it appears) they too are uncertain what’s going on with the ground fight in Gaza, what’s the holdup, what’s going to happen. Link is to his speech, with English captions via “The Telegraph”:
https://youtu.be/oawGUdNTfWU?si=rtSgydKhKyTsDceM
It’s not the whole speech, which was roundabout 4 min+ long, but does contain the salient points, I think.
I suspect that the IDF is keeping those higher-up American military officers far, far away from whatever they are planning …
It’s not like Sec Def Austin has any experience in winning wars, lately. And were I an Israeli patriot, I’d view Biden’s gift to Iran as a stab in the back.
Dear Neo:
I grieve for your pain and anguish.
So many of us here on the internet come to you on a daily basis because we know you do everything possible to find the facts. What is true is something else that we each will have to discover for ourselves, but we cannot do it without your good mind and courage.
The mind is a strange thing, when just now thinking of you and the work you do I heard this song and hope you will not be offended by the video. Keep her steady and take care of yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd_5-2kCzfs
Best,
Just read that Saudia Arabia was hit with missiles from Yemen. Remember that the US and others went after SA for attacking Yemen. Yemen, another puppet of Iran, has also fired missiles at Israel that were shot down by US Navy. Iran reall really wants an all out War. SA is trying to stay out of the war in Israel, but Iran keeps pulling it back in. What is next for SA?
If Israel manages to kill every member of Hamas, it won’t end the terrorism because to kill a snake you have to cut off its head. Hamas is not the snake’s head. Hezbollah is not the snake’s head. Iran is not the snake’s head.
The snake’s head is Islam itself.
Islamic terrorism can be deterred by making it far too risky for its advocates. Remove the recruitment incentive. Threaten the Mullahs and Imam’s symbolic powerbase.
Widespread and incessant exposing of Islam’s basic, unchangeable tenets, upon which violent jihad is justified and repeatedly commanded by Allah himself would lead much of the world to see the ‘wolf’ within the “religion of peace”.
Totalitarian ideologies are literally civilization’s mortal enemies.
It would be extremely foolish to have launched a ground invasion of this size on only 2 1/2 weeks planning.
Most certainly the Sundowner administration is doing everything they can to grind the Israelis down
Amen to Geoffrey Britain, and that’s why unfortunately I think that Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas is doomed to failure if success is defined as the “never again” of Gaza uprisings. So if I were Israel, I would be very careful in defining the elimination of Hamas, restricting it to the elimination of all current Hamas leaders and members only.
I suspect that when Israeli troops in Gaza have to sort out who is and who isn’t Hamas, many Hamas members will deny their membership. So I hope Israel has a complete list with photo ID. Anything less is likely to turn into a joke.
And concerning morality: Caroline Glick’s video linked earlier, IIRC by sdferr titled “Obama and the UN Betray Israel…Again” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drfOR5M-jd0 includes her statement that “Morality is a distinction between good and evil. I mean at the most basic level it’s the distinction between good and evil and the ability to distinguish between the two of them. Perhaps the easiest way to distinguish is really about how forces in this world relate to the concept of Life. Forces of good throughout history, whether they’re few or many, view life as sacred. God created Man in His image, after His likeness; the image of God. He created him male and female, and the idea is that we are all God’s children. God created us. He sanctified our lives by creating us, and it doesn’t matter where you fall on evolution. The basic concept of good is that human life is sacred. The basic concept of evil is that death is sacred and that life is worthless. Hamas and its allies in the global jihad sanctify death.
But Caroline, though I’m with you, right there you define morality by your faith in God and His word. Logically, anyone who does not share your God does not share your morality.
To what extent does the rest of the world share your God? Therein lies the fundamental and humanly insurmountable problem.
well we saw the 14 and 21 offensives, left something to be desired, am I’m being charitable
One more observation: Though I’m tremendously gratified to hear of Israel arming its citizens (https://thefederalist.com/2023/10/09/israel-loosens-strict-gun-control-laws-to-arm-as-many-citizens-as-possible/), it seems from watching Neo’s linked videos that its justice system is even more lenient than America’s when it comes to murder. Many former terrorists murdering Israelis were released in 3-4 years!
Whatever happened to the Torah?
Numbers 35:31, “Moreover, you shall not accept a ransom for the life of a murderer who is condemned to death, but he must be put to death.”
It seems to me that Israel has followed secular morality that feels that capital punishment = cruel and unusual punishment. I suspect that this whole attack by Hamas is going to change Israelis’ views on following that secular morality.
Bill K:
I didn’t get the impression that the 3-4 year sentences were for terrorists who have murdered. They were for acts of terrorism, though – maybe attempts? Or supplying terrorists? However, what the Israelis have done for decades is to exchange very serious offenders (I think including terrorists who have murdered people) for hostages.
Bill K:
I know atheists who share that code. It used to be – accent on the “used” – part of the secular Western code as well. One can argue that it derived from religion or one can argue that it pre-existed those particular religions and was just backed up by religion, but definitely many atheists once shared it.
Now – I think not so many. But still some. And of course Islam is a religion that has a different point of view, depending on what hadith you’re looking at.
“Whatever happened to the Torah?”
You’ll find some part, at least, of an answer to this question in the Millerman link I just put in the “Balancing…” thread, Bill.
Neo, your take was more accurate than mine.
At the 2nd link but starting at 49:30:
“In 2006 I was the deputy head of the prosecution for Judea and Samaria when Gilad Shalit our soldier was kidnapped and two soldiers were killed on the southern border by Hamas as well. We arrested at the time all of the Hamas leadership. Unfortunately, and this is a tremendous difference between the American judicial system and the Israeli judicial system including the military law. Every single one of that Hamas leadership has been released since then. They received punishments which were I would consider to be really a joke. They received punishments of two and a half to three and a half, maximum four years in jail. Arrested in 2006, by 2010 they were out even before Gilad Shalit was released…”
CDR Salamander proposes the offensive is to suck various resources into a position to oppose it and thus be useless elsewhere.
Then, assassin squads as far as Qatar and other places take out the top of the top. And not necessarily limited to Hamas and its imitators.
Oil refineries blow up, which would reduce Iran’s per capita GDP to, it’s been said, a level close to that of Haiti.
House to house, especially with western journos and their Hamas minders making sure the rules of war are followed by the IDF, will be hugely bloody.
I would expect that biometrics and DNA data will be and is being obtained from Hamashites; those captured during the counter attack following the 10/7/2023 wanton massacre and in current and continuing operations to eradicate Hamashites. I would expect Mossad and others to use that data to track down an deal with those involved.
IIRC biometrics were used in the identification and elimination of insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. HE works too.
Israel has no interest in nation-building in Gazaland, nor should they after 10/7/2023.
“What of Gaza? It was a place, as was Carthage.”
Richard Aubrey:
This comment from today’s Open Thread has the link to CDR salamanders analysis:
https://www.thenewneo.com/2023/10/25/open-thread-10-25-23/#comment-2704684
I’ll link to it directly again.
It seems to work
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/do-we-give-them-the-war-they-want
sdferr, I’m sorry not to want to take the time to carefully listen to the entire Millerman link that is 1:19:57 long. I skimmed some parts of it, and it seems the author is not as careful as I would like, at least for example in referencing a source who evidently accepted as ‘Christian’, “the name of that Christian, German jurist of the Third Reich, Carl Schmitt…” (1:09:58)
So if you will, can you refer me to a timestamp that summarizes his part answer of ‘Whatever happened to the Torah?’
But I think I can answer my own question, and correct me if I’m wrong: Israel was founded in the most part in 1948, not as a government created by orthodox Jews, but rather by atheist, socialist, even communist (a la kibbutz) Jews fleeing persecution. Sure, they had a Judaic religious heritage in some part but were by no means setting up the Basic Laws and apparatus of government on the basis of the Torah, but rather what seemed to them as ideal humanistic values at the time.
I posit that not only the leftists, but the atheists in Israel are taking a harder hit to their worldview than orthodox Jews in the current situation, and foresee an impetus to abandon both leftism and atheism as a result. Am I wrong?
Hamas runs a social security bureau, a retirement benefit system for its every operative, names, addresses, numbers, the whole falafel. Capture that data bank, Bob’s yer uncle.
Roughly speaking, Bill, I’d point to mins 38 — ~50 as the section particularly relevant to the disposition of Jewish law in the hands of the Israeli jurists representing Israel’s democratic elements. Your description isn’t too far afield, though the details are bedded in other terms and distinctions.
OFF TOPIC: Just starting reading about the shootings in Maine. Not much info as yet, but it is really bad.
om.
I was speaking of a different Salamander essay. I shorthanded it and took out some of the best possible possibilities.
Less emphasis on the US’ potential role.
Bill K:
Israel always had a mix of religious Jews and non-religious Jews from the start. I don’t know the proportions at the beginning, but it has become more religious over time because its population quickly swelled as a result of the emigration from Arab countries of the Sephardic (more accurately, Mizrahi) Jews that had lived in the Arab world for millennia and who tended to be observant. This tilted the population to the right over time, as did the failure of the peace initiatives. In addition, religious Jews have more children, and that added to the ranks of the religious. The right has been politically dominant in recent decades in Israel. Only 45% of the population has identified as secular in recent years.
Ironically, the part of Israel that was attacked, and the kibbutzim there, tend to be the more leftist area of Israel. That is one reason why the remaining Israeli leftists are really questioning things at this point, and the country is (for the moment) united.
As for the original legal system, it was a mixture of Orthodox and secular elements. See this.
@ yancey ward > “It would be extremely foolish to have launched a ground invasion of this size on only 2 1/2 weeks planning.”
Indeed it would.
I suspect that Israel had a number of on-the-shelf plans ready to be tweaked for the current situation, despite their nearly unbelievable failure to predict and plan for something like the 10/7 invasion, and then dismiss the warning signs over two years.
@ Bill K > “So I hope Israel has a complete list with photo ID”
I suspect the Israelis have a considerable data base, despite the fact that many minions of Hamas are not card-carrying members.
They can add suspects from all the new work permits’ information. (I would hope that at least some were just working, not willingly serving as informants and then marauders).
They certainly know who these genuine members are.
“Every single one of that Hamas leadership has been released since then”
See also om on October 25, 2023 at 9:22 pm in re DNA and biometrics.
And what sdferr said: “Hamas runs a social security bureau, a retirement benefit system for its every operative, names, addresses, numbers, the whole falafel. Capture that data bank, Bob’s yer uncle.”
I would suspect the Israelis have had access to that for a long time.
They aren’t handicapped in rounding-up terrorists by lack of data, but by public pressure in and out of Israel.
In support of my comment to Yancey, I was likely remembering having read this.
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/gaza-coa-decision-brief
“I am quite sure the Israeli Defense Forces had appropriate draft Operational Plans (OPLANS) on the shelf with all sorts of Branch Plans and Sequels waiting to be updated and providing enough once dusted off to get things in to Phase I.”
Some actual genuine news from CNN (via Not the Bee), that will probably figure in to Israel’s plans:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/politics/intelligence-hamas-israel-attack-tunnels-phone-lines/index.html
Thanks Neo for the ref on Secularism in Israel.
And did you notice this?:
“When a state becomes part of the United Nations, the state adopts the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. In the Declaration, there are many instances that reflect a country’s need for religious freedom. The Preamble of the Declaration states that it is “a common standard of achievement for all peoples and all nations”. In the Declaration, both articles 2 and 18 reference freedom of religion. In article 2, it states that everyone is entitled to all the rights, without any distinction such as religion. Article 18 states that everyone has the right to freedom of thought, conscience, and religion, and has the right to show their religion in teaching, practice, worship, and observance.”
3 rhetorical questions:
1. Do Muslim states follow Article 18? 🙁
2. By this standard, should they be members of the UN? 🙁
3. Will anybody do anything about it? 🙁
For those fascinated by irony, paradox, redemption, loyalty and…heroism…
“Poland’s Pious Forgers”—
https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2023/10/polands-pious-forgers
AesopFan,
Phase one is aerial/artillery assault and softening of targets. This usually takes weeks of work just to get through.
@ Yancey – indeed, but that is implementation, and your prior comment was about planning.
Operationally, how long would it really take to complete a “softening” in an area as small as Gaza, since Israel is already bombing Hamas targets?
Aesop
Theoretically ,you “soften” the route you want and a couple of blocks on either side. With drones for surveillance–not available earlier–ambushes and assemblies of troops can be spotted in time to respond.
Then you have an area cut off for the more thorough treatment, not requiring speed and thus casualties.
That being said, which ever side’s munition is in the dead civilian, the fault is with the side choosing to fight from amongst civilians.