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The polls and Biden — 28 Comments

1. Max Boot has a hilarious piece in today’s WaPo about the feared consequences of another Trump presidency (the point of his piece is that Biden has to stay on the ticket ’cause our esteemed VP can’t win due to racism and stuff).
   In the piece, Boot conjectures that Trump as president would “… cut off aid to Ukraine, pull out of NATO, eviscerate the civil service and the military’s top ranks, and appoint an attorney general who will prosecute his enemies.”

   Max, I was already convinced, you don’t have to sell me.

   https://tinyurl.com/4y7t7e2h

2. Sounds to me like the way the DEM’s were in trouble for 2020. Never materialized when all the votes were counted.

3. As the commenter a couple of days ago speculated…JB resigns, Harris takes Feinstein’s senate spot and Newsom steps up to bat. Kurt Schlichter even pointed out this morning about his veto of the LGBQ bill last week and how the response from the D has been muted….his “move to the middle”. As Schlichler said, “he’s measuring the drapes”. Newsom against Trump…Newsom wins as he pulls in the MotR voters with smoothness and youth.

   https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/09/25/column-n2628854

4. In other words, don’t get your hopes up. But in fairness, I don’t think anyone around here has their hopes too high despite the near constant flow of negative news for Biden’s 2024 prospects.

   Certainly there’s a huge number of crawl-over-broken-glass-to-vote-against-Trump people that could act as a bulwark for Joe, guaranteeing him some minimum floor at least. I guess the question is where are they located? How many of them are in true swing districts? And will their Trump hatred still be burning brightly by this time next year? Regarding the economy, the border crisis, and crime, does anyone believe things are somehow going to get better by this time next year on any of these issues? To me it seems highly unlikely any of them will. So yeah, such people will never vote for Trump, but they might not go out of their way to vote against him if things get bad enough in their own lives in ways that they can’t imagine at the moment. So, who knows?

5. All of what you wrote is probably true however Donald Trump is a perfect candidate to ensure Addled Joe will be re-elected.

6. physicsguy:

   As I’ve written many times before, I don’t think so, for the simple reason that it would be a demotion for Harris. She already was a senator from California. Why would she acquiesce to taking Feinstein’s spot? It’s an insult.

7. Neo- maybe an insult for Harris get demoted to senator, but where will she be if she stays on the ticket as VP and they lose?
   She has no marketable skills, I doubt that even Harvard would hire her.
   As senator, she could remain in the public eye, keep her delusional dream of running for president alive, and get a steady paycheck, good for her lifetime.
   At some point, she has to balance the humiliation of being demoted to senator, which will fade within a few weeks, with the ongoing humiliation of serving as an overt affirmative action figurehead, in a job with no responsibility, that she is widely acknowledged to be failing at. Her only hope for advancement is for her boss to die or be removed; he likely will remain alive with excellent medical care, and his dementia will gradually get worse, but can be managed as it is now.

8. Neo, ok, but if she stays on as Newsom’s VP, then still a valid, and in my view, the likely scenario. All the suburban Karen’s and the Gen Zers will swoon over Newsom vs Trump.

9. I know I’m turning into a one trick pony, but there were three developments over the last few days which provide stronger evidence than ever before that Brandon will be switched out for Newsom.

   1. Brandon’s truly abysmal poll numbers. Neo is right that it’s just a snapshot and has little direct impact on next year. But indirectly…it’s making Democrats, influential Democrats very very nervous. The economy may improve, the border situation might improve (likely not, but it could), a myriad of news events might occur that are favorable to Brandon. But his cognitive abilities will not improve. At best they will stay where they are; at best. And they’re pretty darn low already.

   2. Newsom’s veto of the Trans child custody bill. There was no reason for him to do that other than to appeal to moderate voters in purple states. He’s laying the groundwork for a Presidential run.

   3. Newsom and DeSantis’s debate is now scheduled. This is going to introduce Newsom to a national audience. He just has to not fall on his face completely and he’ll be hailed by the MSM as Churchillian in eloquence.

   I am a little befuddled by those who say getting Harris out of the way is a huge challenge for the switcheroo. She is hopelessly unpopular, and even many Democrats are indifferent to her. And I don’t think the black community really is that attached to her either. I will say that Newsom will have to pledge to select a black running mate from the outset. Michelle Obama? Almost certainly not. But floating her name will excite the base, to be certain.

   Or maybe Newsom will keep Harris. Unlikely,but possible. And as far as any Constitutional issues with that…I’m sure it wouldn’t be too difficult for Harris to establish official residency in DC, or Maryland or Virginia

10. Neo wrote: (3) National polls don’t tell much, even close to the election, because it’s swing state polls that matter. I haven’t read anything about those.
    ____________________________________________________________

    Here are links to some swing state polls compiled by Real Clear Politics. Some are pretty old, and I wouldn’t lean too hard on even the new ones, but for what it’s worth …

    Again, I don’t want to defend the value of these polls, but at first glance, Biden looks okay in these swing states. Conservatives are always hoping for a collapse in poll numbers that will match Biden’s record of failure and cognitive decline, but I don’t see it yet. If I’ve misread the polls, then please speak up. I’d like to be proved wrong.

    Pennsylvania https://tinyurl.com/mr2p9nwn

    Virginia https://tinyurl.com/3fb9hd4p

    North Carolina https://tinyurl.com/yj63d26e

    Georgia https://tinyurl.com/53tr4cbn

    Ohio https://tinyurl.com/589rdnax

    Michigan https://tinyurl.com/4x9et3p5

    Wisconsin https://tinyurl.com/4n9akmdy

    Iowa https://tinyurl.com/2u3atbez

    Colorado https://tinyurl.com/mv3xttxx

    New Mexico https://tinyurl.com/46ba9n3y

    Nevada https://tinyurl.com/3tx5593z

11. Ackler, I’ve been wondering if Harris has established residency in DC, or if she’s still officially domiciled in California. Either way, Newsom/Harris would be an all-California ticket, not necessarily a selling point nationwide.

12. Kate (6:42 pm) said: “Either way, Newsom/Harris would be an all-California ticket, not necessarily a selling point nationwide.”

    There might be a Constitutional problem as well, having to do with electors voting for a pair both of whom hail from the same state as the electors — and California’s got a heckuva lot of California electors.

    >>> Article II Section 1 —
    “The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.”

    https://www.history.com/news/can-the-president-and-vice-president-be-from-the-same-state

13. I worry that Biden won’t run.

    Fortunately, some Dem pundits are telling Dems to stop worrying and man up for a Biden campaign.

    Go, Joe, go!
    ___________________________________

    Stop the Bedwetting Democrats! Biden Is the Right Guy and He Can Win

    For many Americans, there are four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and fall. But for many Democrats, and particularly those who write columns and pundits who spend more time in cable news studios than talking to actual voters, there is a fifth season: bedwetting season.

    Democratic bedwetting,K/b> a term first coined by President Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe in 2008, describes Democrats’ ability to irrationally overreact to political events and poll numbers to assume immediate electoral doom and gloom.

    https://www.newsweek.com/stop-bedwetting-democrats-biden-right-guy-he-can-win-opinion-1829292

14. Cornflour:

    According to the polls you linked –

    (1) Pennsylvania: the most recent poll was a full month ago, basically a tie; Biden is up two percentage points, well within the margin of error. But their vote total was only 82%, so a full 18% weren’t choosing either and that also means the results are essentially meaningless.

    (2) Virginia – polls consistently show Biden ahead, but there’s a lot of disparity in the amount by which he’s ahead, and the most recent poll is over a month ago.

    (3) North Carolina: the most recent poll was in March, essentially meaningless therefore. Biden was ahead by 2, well within the margin of error.

    (4) Georgia: the most recent poll was in December of 2022. Meaningless.

    (5) Ohio: the most recent poll was in mid-July. Too long ago. But at that point and earlier, Trump was significantly ahead.

    (6) Michigan: the only state with a fairly recent poll, done in mid-September. Biden is up by 3 points, which is within the margin of error. Other polls, in August and July, had Biden up but by even less, obviously within the margin of error.

    (7) Wisconsin: this state’s poll report is curious. On the RealClearPolitics link you gave, it says the most recent poll showed Biden up by 9 points, taken in mid-July. But the link for the details of that poll takes you here, where it says something quite different:

    In a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election between President Joe Biden and Trump, registered voters were evenly split, with each candidate receiving 50% support.
    When asked about a hypothetical Biden/DeSantis race, registered voters favored DeSantis, 51-48. There is little change since the May survey, but Biden’s support among independents saw a modest increase, from 44% to 51%.

    So according to a Wisconsin poll taken the second week of July (old), with a 4-point margin of error, Trump and Biden are completely tied and DeSantis beats Biden by three points. Interesting. And yet, at least as I read it, the RealClearPolitics chart shows a different result. I can’t figure that out.

    (8) Iowa: The most recent poll was 2 weeks ago. Trump is way ahead, beyond the margin of error, and this was also true in previous polls in Iowa.

    (9) Colorado: no polls there since November of 2022. Therefore no data there. However, I would be very surprised if Biden didn’t win there. Is Colorado still considered a swing state?

    (10) New Mexico: Another state I don’t consider a swing state, the most recent poll was in mid-August and Biden was ahead of Trump 49 to 41. Note there are still a lot of “undecided.” However, as in Wisconsin, DeSantis polled better than Trump against Biden: 49 to 43.

    (11) Nevada – the most recent poll was in April. Before that, the most recent one was in early February. So there is essentially no relevant data. But for what it’s worth, the April one showed Biden up by 8 points and the February one showed Trump up by 1 point.

    Maybe I’ll do a post tomorrow on this.

15. A sure sign that Biden is in real trouble are all the articles trying to convince people that old Joe is just fine. While I don’t believe that Biden trails Trump by 10 percentage points I do believe that, despite the truly heroic efforts of the Deep State, Biden has somehow fallen behind Trump. If Kamala wasn’t such a cackling idiot, Biden would already be gone.

    Even though Kamala is unpopular, getting rid of the first black, female vice-President so that a white guy can run is going to upset a lot of people. They probably won’t vote for Trump but some of them probably won’t vote at all. It’s one thing for people to think the system is rigged and elections don’t matter but it’s another to see such a crazy scenario play out in front of your eyes.

    The Democrats have put themselves in a box that they can’t find a way out of. They’ve tried so hard to make sure that Trump can never get near the White House again and yet he’s still standing in all of his orange glory. I’m sure they have a few more tricks up their sleeve but so far their plans are failing.

16. If physicsguy’s scenario comes to fruition; DeSantis vs. Newsom would be a heckuva race. And I think DeSantis would win. Two governors from two of our most popular states going head to head. Great stuff!

    But, Trump wants revenge and is taking down the GOP, so we won’t get to see this.

17. I know neo has already said she doesn’t see Harris moving back down to Senator, but, as a hypothetical;

    If Feinstein steps down Newsom appoints a replacement until the next election, correct? There’s nothing in the law that prohibits Harris from stepping down as V.P. and taking the spot, right? Then Biden gets to appoint a new V.P., right? So Biden appoints Newsom then, a few months later announces he isn’t running.

18. I don’t see under-bussing Kamala as that big a problem for Democrats.

    Sure, they will have to issue statements of solemn praise for her contributions, but as long as decent consolation prizes are awarded to Kamala and to various black and women subgroups, all’s well that ends well — as long as they beat Trump.

    Democrats don’t really like Kamala either. Blacks and women will make a solidarity stink about it, but it’s not a matter of principle. Like Churchill’s Lady Whatshername story, it’s a matter of price.

19. Trump was up 10 points in the WaPo-ABC poll, so the paper called their own poll an outlier. I’d say the poll is a good reflection of the paper’s overall credibility level, but I’d have to agree that it doesn’t reflect the expected result next year. Poor sampling. Assuming that there’s any validity to it at all, many voters who are expressing their discontent with Biden now will vote for him anyway, especially against Trump.

    At some point, she has to balance the humiliation of being demoted to senator, which will fade within a few weeks, with the ongoing humiliation of serving as an overt affirmative action figurehead, in a job with no responsibility, that she is widely acknowledged to be failing at.

    Harris doesn’t feel that her current position is an ongoing humiliation. She thinks that she’s doing fine and that she got there on her own merits. Nobody with much self-awareness would have gotten her start in politics the way that Kamala did.

    I think she’d be perfectly happy with another term as VP, a halfhearted run for president in 2028, and then a happy retirement with opportunities to make money — and there’s always a chance she’ll hit the jackpot. Even if she’s only president for a few months, that’s a great resume item with real marketable value. By contrast, going back the Senate would be humiliating, and not really worth it.

20. Love to see RFK Jr.’s campaign take flight. No ‘strategery’-minded billionaire patriots out there?

21. Kate, no it wouldn’t be a great selling point. I doubt it will happen. Ultimately, I think Harris will be offered almost anything she wants (cabinet post, a ‘czar’ position, SCOTUS appointment, CEO of a major corporation, Presidency of a major university….or just an obscenely lucrative speaking/book tour, where she can continue or word salad speeches but for bags of money). Meanwhile, after Michelle politely declines, Newsom will select an up and Comer black Democrat like Wes Moore

22. @ huxley > ” it’s not a matter of principle. Like Churchill’s Lady Whatshername story, it’s a matter of price.”

    I have seen that old joke attributed to George Bernard Shaw as well, so I checked it out with my favorite fact-checkers.

    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/03/07/haggling/

    Although the best phrasings of the story certainly sound like both of those esteemed gentlemen, neither of them are culpable.

    This is a widely quoted exchange between them, which I wish was real — it’s characteristic of their witty repartee.

    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/03/25/two-tickets-shaw/

    And my third favorite “quote” bites the dust.

    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/08/27/drink-it/#note-9637-1

    I noticed that there is a similarity in the evolution of all three, that what began as a somewhat long-winded humorous bit in a newspaper eventually was refined in repetition to the kind of punchy brevity that Shaw and Churchill (and sometimes Twain) were rightly famous for.

    And ending sentences with a preposition is fine; “Sir Winston” said so!

    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/07/04/churchill-preposition/

23. AesopFan:

    I hate it that No One said all my favorite quotes! That No One gets around, but somehow I keep missing him.

    One of Werner Erhard’s speaking tricks was the sentence broken in two at a preposition followed by a clause ending without the preposition, catching one by surprise.

    Kinda like a jazz solo that goes Out There then returns to the home chord and everyone goes crazy.

    God help me, I’m still reading Werner Erhard:
    ______________________________________________

    This is an experience over which you will never get.

    –Bruce Hyde, Drew Kopp, “Speaking Being: Werner Erhard, Martin Heidegger and a New Possibility of Being Human

24. With Dem’s GOTV and vote harvesting, combined with institutional chaos in the state Republican organizations – “within the margin of error” should probably be read as “down by a solid five points.”

    Also, if the D’s goal is to goad the GOP into nominating Trump, the national polls over the past few weeks are exactly what one would expect to see a few months out from the primaries.

25. I think the polls incident deep brand damage.

26. I have little doubt the Democrat Party (Marc Elias/Zuck Bucks) machine, using their template from 2020 & with their allies in the Liberal Media/Tech Complex, will manage to drag Biden across the finish line one more time–maybe not with *cough* 81 million votes–but he’ll win comfortably.

27. I wouldn’t count M. Obama out. She doesn’t want to campaign. Well, that didn’t seem to have a negative affect on Fetterman.
    Scenario offered by Cruz, M. Obama is chosen at the convention. That takes care of campaigning for the next 9 months or so. She would selectively appear in public occasionally until the election. Most of the campaigning would be done by B. Obama anyway.

28. It’s hard to tell the exact date the tides swung. But around 50 years ago God decided he would stop show us favor. We are reaping the results.

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