On Biden’s polls
There is polling that shows Biden’s approval rating low and dropping, but I’m not so sure it matters except in one sense: it may motivate the Democrats to make sure he doesn’t run in 2024. Then again, polls also show that he and Trump are statistically tied. To me, that means that their support is more or less locked in. Those who plan to vote for Trump are probably never going to vote for Biden no matter what is done to Trump, and those who plan to vote for Biden will vote for any Democrat over Trump and could not care less what Biden does or has done. They may think he’s awful, but they think Trump is more awful.
Another point is that national polls aren’t much help. It’s really the state polls in the swing states that matter, and I’ve seen precious few of those.
This recent CNN poll has another interesting aspect, though. If you go to page 17, which pits the GOP contenders against Biden, you’ll notice that – at least in this poll that was taken the last week of August, shortly after the GOP debate – they all do rather well. Every single candidate they asked about (Haley, Pence, Scott, Ramaswamy, Christie, and DeSantis) are pretty much in a dead statistical heat with Biden. The sole exception is Nikki Haley, who is six points ahead of Biden.
I wonder if that Haley advantage has any legs, or if it’s just a statistical glitch or a temporary reaction to the debate. It’s something to think about, though. And I wonder how she does in swing states.
Haley is not my preferred GOP candidate at all, but if she has the strongest chance of winning I’d support her. Thing is – as I’ve written before – I think the GOP primaries are pretty moot since I believe Trump will be the nominee.
2016 killed polls for me, I believe nothing they say as it’s all propaganda for the side they are paid by.
If Trump can fight off most of the Kangaroo Courts he wins the nomination.
The Leftists fraud hasn’t been challenged and will rule the day again because they are doing well at keeping any justice for it down.
In a old style world the Democrats killed the economy and would be beaten to a pulp by the voters.Seems to me the mid term they would have been beaten as well but fraud kept a Republican stomping to a barest of bare win margin in the house and lost in the Senate.
JoJo is getting some help from Governor Hair Gel: “California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he won’t run for president in 2024 or stand in Kamala Harris’s way in the future . . . . When asked if for some reason Biden doesn’t end up running for president, Newsom answered that Vice President Kamala Harris is the one who is ‘naturally lined up for the job.’ . . . When asked if he would consider a run against Harris, Newsom said, ‘Of course not. By definition. Won’t happen.'”
https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/09/newsom-wont-run-in-2024-says-harris-naturally-lined-up-to-succeed-biden/
PA Cat:
Interesting. Perhaps Newsom looked at his own polls and found them wanting. Or perhaps he’s just waiting to be “drafted.”
Skip:
But the polls for the 2016 presidential race were actually fairly accurate. If you don’t agree, see this post on the subject that I wrote shortly after that election.
I like Nikki in general, and read that she had a fine answer on the abortion question about getting most of the common-sense agreed to positions. Because she’s a woman, she’ll get more support from fem Rep-lite independents, especially those who like Rep policies but hate Trump.
But she’s shown she’s too GOPe to win the primaries.
All Reps should be complaining about prior election irregularities, and reminding folk about Hillary’s claim of fraud in 2016 – far less fraud than in 2020.
Reps should also be talking about how the Dem demonization is what’s causing polarization and division, rather than looking for compromise.
In 2020, Biden’s entire seven million vote margin of victory could be explained by his dominance in California (5 million) and New York (2 million). Absent voter fraud, a tie in the national vote would very likely result in a pretty easy Republican electoral college win. But of course there will be some level of fraud in the key swing states controlled by Democrats.
But there is no question that Democrats are worried about Biden, which is why you see all those articles telling nervous Dems that they shouldn’t be panicking about old Joe’s bad poll numbers. If we fall into a recession, I think it is completely possible that Biden will be too unpopular for even the strongest “election fortification”. I’m sure there will be many more unexpected twists if Biden continues to decline.
The situation is fluid.
Trump-hate is locked in, agreed. But there’s plenty of further room at the bottom for Biden’s polls, which is not nearly as true for Trump.
Even Democrats may have second-thoughts about voting for an increasingly obvious drooling, letching senior citizen to be POTUS.
Not that I would expect such Democrats to vote for Trump, but they might well sit on their hands.
The economy is not going to get any better. Oli prices are going up again. Inflation is rising again. People are not able to pay their bills – credit card debt at record highs. The c commercial real estate insolvencies are just beginning. The housing market is unbalanced, and mortgage rates are high and may be going higher.
Biden’s policies are making it all worse. It’s the economy, stupid is the motto. The election is going to be determined by it. IMO, even Trump will look good to moderates by 2024.
The polls are a croc but Democrats are going to do what Democrats do.
Since Haley will not be the nominee, it’s a moot point but she’s a GOPe RINO. As one, all she wants to do is slow our ‘Titanic’s’ progress toward its final destination.
I’ve stated my prognostication many times: Biden will be switched put for Newsom, likely in late November or early December. These polls are more confirming evidence for the same.
Trump hate will overcome everything for Democrat voters. When it comes time to vote they will crawl over broken glass if need be to vote against Trump.
Seems to me the mid term they would have been beaten as well but fraud kept a Republican stomping to a barest of bare win margin in the house and lost in the Senate.
I think abortion had a lot to do with the 2022 election.
I agree that if Biden’s weakness and corruption get bad enough, a lot of Democrats may sit this one out.
I think Newsom is too ambitious for the Derp State. They prefer a dullard like Harris and let him know that.
Governor Hair Gel
From that Legal Insurrection article’s comments, it seems that Newsom’s new nickname is Governor Brylcreem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brylcreem
What seems weird to me is that Newsom’s ex-wife, the bombshell-ish Kimberly Guilfoyle, is Donald Trump Jr.’s fiancee.
“What seems weird to me is that Newsom’s ex-wife, the bombshell-ish Kimberly Guilfoyle, is Donald Trump Jr.’s fiancee.”
Newsom is no stranger to musical beds; he had an affair around 2007 with Ruby Rippey-Tourk, his campaign manager’s wife, before he married his current whatever. He refers to her as the “first partner” of California, which tells you something about his respect for marriage.
The election seems frightening. The Deep State isn’t merely annoyed with Trump’s potential policy choices. They fear a man they feel, justly, would be bent on, to the exclusion of almost anything else, retribution. And who knows where the skeletons are–the scoundrels have self-advertised–and where the levers are.
Imagine that mug shot face at the inauguration.
He would be likely to think any opposition to any of his policies is more of the same and take it as such, even if it were the usual policy/political difference.
If he is the nominee, the election is going to be…words fail. And that’s just the voting part.
I would think that anybody comparing the state of the country now with how things were four years ago would definitely vote for Trump over Biden, but I felt in 2020 that anybody who heard what Biden was saying would definitely vote for Trump. It’s also a puzzle for me why anybody would have voted for Newsom or Hochul in the last election, but apparently, dissatisfaction with Democrats and their policies doesn’t translate into electoral victories for Republicans. Trump hatred is a big factor in that, but it seems like no matter how dissatisfied people are with Biden, any Republican is going to have an uphill battle. Something will happen between now and election day that will scare voters into going with the Democrats, and election fraud will do the rest.
Newsom isn’t planning to run, but he must have some back-up plan if things go south with old Joe. Saying now that he won’t run and in a sense endorsing Harris may make things difficult for him if putting Plan B into effect becomes a possibility.
Voters will also fear a Trump bent on retribution. Trump certainly has reasons, but the notion that there was some monster inside Trump waiting to come out did a lot to drive his polling numbers and election results down.
If Trump had some “appropriate adult” to advise him and was willing to follow the advice, he’d beat Biden, but I don’t see signs of anybody like that on the horizon.
“I think abortion had a lot to do with the 2022 election.
I agree that if Biden’s weakness and corruption get bad enough, a lot of Democrats may sit this one out.” – Mike K.
Agreed. The GOP needs to have an abortion platform that refutes the Democrats’ claims that Republicans want to ban abortion and birth control.
The Biden age issues, and corruption will not deter most Democrats, but it only takes a few thousand staying home in swing states to make a difference.
How’s the following for a wild prediction? Newsom will appoint Kamala to take over Feinstein’s seat (It will be an offer she can’t refuse), Biden will be gently put out to pasture, and then a new handsome young face, like Newsom’s, will be available to garner all the 2024 mail in ballots.
Grandpagrumble:
Harris was already a senator. Being appointed to the Senate would be a demotion at this point and she doesn’t want it. Of course, when you say “It will be an offer she can’t refuse,” I suppose you mean she will be forced to accept it. I don’t think that will happen; it would alienate the Democrats’ base which is women and black people.