Arguments for DeSantis over Trump – do they matter?
Commenter “Griffin” links to this Twitter page in which Steve Deace endorses DeSantis. Deace gives a host of reasons, and I agree with pretty much all of them. Here’s a small excerpt:
DeSantis has done more damage to our enemies where it matters most (policy) than any politician I’ve seen in my career, and thus earned my (our) support IMO.
Or, to put it more plainly, it is time to not just message and market the MAGA, but to actually do the MAGA. …
… I think [Trump] has real electability issues, but even more fundamental than that, I don’t believe they’re going to let you vote for him if you want to. I think he will either be in prison by this time next year, or forced to take a plea deal to stay out of it. I don’t even think anymore they’re trying to get him the nomination, because they think they can beat him. Maybe it started there, but these people can’t restrain themselves. They just want to punish Trump for daring to be our voice. …
There is only one other candidate who truly threatens the system — DeSantis. Now, I think he threatens them even more/better than Trump, …
I see no other path to stop this, since Republicans in Congress won’t defund the weaponized DOJ (which Trump himself is strangely not even asking for), than to win the next election. If Trump isn’t on the ballot, who else has an actual record of draining swamps other than DeSantis? Nobody. Heck, the same Ramaswamy currently auditioning to be Bishop of MAGA just wrote a book — last year — condemning Trump and praising Pence for goodness sakes. …
… [N]ot a single meaningful incumbent lost last year, despite the three years of Hell we’d all just been through as a people. If you missed this, and are still claiming you know what time it is, I would kindly ask you to re-check your watch.
There were two places where the Democrat Party was rightfully destroyed — Florida and Iowa. Two places with governors who didn’t surrender their people to generational damage at the hands of Fauci-Birx as Trump did. Two places where landmark #ProLife legislation was enacted. Two places where the groomers were confronted head on and kicked out. Two places with strong leaders displaying strong leadership. And the voters in each of those states, which Barack Obama had just won twice, rewarded that strong leadership by re-electing their Republican Governors by 20 point margins.
There’s more from Deace, of course, but I wager you get the point.
A personal note: I’ve had a difficult year, as most of you know. I’ve weathered the death of someone very close to me, and there are other close friends who are wrestling with illness and I’ve also had other friends die. The news out there in the wider world is often depressing for the most part, as well. So it may be that my perceptions of the upcoming election are skewed by all of that grieving.
But with that caveat, what I see is that most people on the right are going to vote for Trump in the primaries, and no other candidate will be able to gain enough traction to stop that. Logical arguments like those of Deace don’t tend to change minds, and that is particularly true where strong emotion is involved. And with Trump’s candidacy, very strong emotion is involved. That emotion involves – among other things – justified outrage at what has been done to him by his enemies.
I think for the most part Trump was a good president, and I think what he accomplished under the constant barrage of false accusations, spying, lying, lawfare, and all the rest is nothing short of phenomenal. But I think that he won by a small margin in 2016, and was unable to build substantially on that. Whether or not fraud or rigging was involved in Biden’s win, I think there’s also no question that Trump made few converts to his cause. His behavior since the election of 2020 has alienated even more people, and I believe he cannot win in 2024 for that reason.
Of course, if Trump becomes the nominee, I hope I’m wrong about that.
However, I simply don’t see that anyone else in the Republican field has a chance to win the nomination, much as I think it’s logical to support someone like DeSantis. For a host of reasons, I don’t think Trump’s support is going to sink below a plurality of Republican primary votes. And I also think that quite a few Democrats will probably cross over in the primaries to vote for Trump, because they think he will be a sure loser in the general.
All that is plausible, but I don’t find the case entirely convincing.
E.g., “I think there’s also no question that Trump made few converts to his cause.”
Is that true? He did increase his vote considerably, which is one of the things that makes the election seem fishy. He seems to have improved a lot among minority men. Face it, the numbers from 2020 are indeterminate.
Of course, I also don’t know that that statement is false, and I certainly wouldn’t bet on his winning in 2024. But then again, I wouldn’t bet on DeSantis, either.
One thing that troubles me about DeSantis is that he seems to have forgotten his ability – shown before the primaries – to call BS on the press’s loaded questions. Or maybe it was those who work for him. If that’s the case, he’s a weaker candidate then I thought (and hoped.)
As it is, I vote for either Don or Ron. Or Vivek, too. But I do believe that the only way we can win is if Biden cannot finish this term. Then they’d be stuck with Kamala, as she would be the “historic” first woman president. And she is the only Democrat I think we can beat.
Obama in 2008 got 69.5 million votes, in 2012 he got 66 million.
Trump in 2016 got 63 million votes, in 2020 he got 74 million. Trump was able to substantially build up his base. The idea the Biden got 11 million than virtue signaling lets prove we aren’t racist by voting for the black guy strains credulity.
Trump is not on board with the Great Reset, that is why he must be stopped.
rbj1; Eeyore:
I have heard that argument before (the one rbj1 is making), and I completely disagree. It does not strain credulity in the least.
Between 2016 and 2020, people got more and more fired up on both sides, and so the total number of voters increased. Trump lost support among suburban woman and gained a small amount among black men. But people not on the right – and this includes almost everyone I know – were VERY motivated to vote for Biden despite his enormous flaws. This was because they detested Trump and would have voted for the proverbial yellow dog if that dog was running against Trump, and it was also because Biden was riding on his “nice avuncular guy” reputation and in particular on the reflected glow of having been Obama’s VP.
Whether or not there was fraud (and there most definitely was plenty of what could be called “rigging”) in the 2020 election, Biden had a great deal of bona fide support and I think it’s dangerous to assume he did not.
DeSantis is tied to big money and never Trumpers, a losing team. Trump is the Man and people will vote for him even if he is convicted. The new biden special counsel appointment is clear evidence of coverup. DeSantis is not the way to go.
What the heck, for the sake of solidarity, I’ll go ahead and endorse DeSantis. The primaries are usually over by the time they get to the Pacific Northwest anyway.
As Mark Levin would say, “There, I said it!”
It’s all about the general.
What Trump “accomplished under the constant barrage of false accusations, spying, lying, lawfare, and all the rest is nothing short of phenomenal. But I think that he won by a small margin in 2016, and was unable to build substantially on that.”
If DeSantis is elected President, upon what basis might we expect that he too would not undergo “a constant barrage of false accusations, spying, lying, lawfare, and all the rest”?
Especially if DeSantis tried to govern as a real conservative…
upon what basis might we expect that DeSantis would get anymore backing from the GOPe than did Trump?
Polls often show a majority of Americans as opposing a particular policy but which apparently has no substantive effect upon how Congress votes. So as with Trump, a president DeSantis could not expect public pressure to sway Congress.
Finally, if one agrees that the GOPe is no more likely to substantively back a President DeSantis than it did President Trump, then implicit to that agreement is that the GOPe is simply a contending faction within the UniParty.
no he didn’t thats why they stole georgia with fulton county, michigan with wayne wisconsin with madison, and maricopa and so on and so on, but speaking the truth is thought crime,
Geoffrey Britain:
Did anyone here say that DeSantis would not undergo such a barrage? If anyone did say it, I missed it.
I certainly didn’t say it. In fact, in the past I’ve said that DeSantis not only will be attacked as the next Hitler-equivalent, but he already HAS been attacked in those terms.
I think one of the problems with Trump has is what I call “Baby Bottle Voters”. There’s the saying “Give the baby its bottle and it’ll shut up.” This can work if the baby is hungry. This can be a really bad idea if the baby wanted attention. Anyway after 2016 the left et al threw a tantrum. The end result of their conniption was they got the presidency in 2020. The problem is that I don’t think they really have a problem with Trump himself, they wanted power and attention. The voters taught them that if they have a fit they’ll get their way like a screaming 5 year old for a toy. If Desantis was the nominee I expect they’ll try the same tactics as they’ve done before with every other republican nominee.(Come to think of it they’re already starting.) Will the voters give them their candy again or will they stand firm. I guess what I’m hoping is that the voters smarten up with what’s happening or Desantis can be as effective as Reagan winning them over but my natural tendency is to be pessimistic.
I agree with some of what Deace writes but if, as he says, “the system” refuses to allow people to vote for Trump and DeSantis is the only other threat to said system (and a more effective threat at that) why would DeSantis be allowed to win?
Deace also writes about the Republicans disappointing showing in the midterms “despite the three years of Hell we’d all just been through as a people”. I also thought the Republicans would do much better but for a lot of people, the previous three years were just not that bad. They worked from home, got their food delivered, and weren’t affected by the crime that swept through the cities. Things will have to get a bit more uncomfortable for the “normies” before they decide that they’ve had enough of Biden.
I agree with Neo that Trump will likely be the Republican nominee and if the election were held next month he would likely lose. But a lot can happen between now and November 2024, so I retain some sliver of hope.
OK, assume Trump is nominated and somehow wins the general election. What will really happen in the real world, not in the imaginations of his most fervent supporters?
The huge segments of American society that detest Trump will still be there, angrier than ever, and just as determined to undermine everything he does. Trump will continue to make everything about himself, and will lack a strong majority in Congress to enable his agenda. Instead he will issue executive orders that will immediately face intense legal and political challenges, the ordinary bureaucracy has many means of resistance, not to mention the more clever and determined Deep State types.
Who will he staff his administration? The sharpest and most capable people who share much of his agenda, are they prepared to become targets of the most savage leftist resistance and personal attacks? How confident are they that they can prevail in that environment, and that Trump will have their backs? He has thrown just about everybody under the bus who once worked for his administration the last time. And he changes positions on a whim, which again undercuts his own people. Plus he will be a lame duck from the start of his second administration.
Oh, but electing him will be such sweet revenge for how he has been treated these last eight years, you say? That and three bucks will get you a cup of coffee, the future of our country really has nothing to do with your feelings, so get over it.
Everybody on all sides gets caught up in the stupid games of politics, and lose sight of the big picture. The country is in dire straits, and we desperately need to substantially upgrade our governance. Settling old scores, dragging out prior disputes, and nominating another late seventies relic is an insane and unworkable response to the crises of the day.
Let me repeat, even if Trump somehow wins he will inevitably fail, and I have seen no credible arguments from his most fervent and often delusional supporters that this would not be the case. They aren’t even thinking that far ahead.
Making substantial changes in our political system requires broad political support, as in a President getting the majority of the popular vote as well as a substantial Electoral College win. And both houses of the Congress need to swing in the winning party’s favor as well. Trump has shown he can only win in the EC and not the popular vote, and his effect on Senate and House races has been counterproductive.
The Progressives will have another destructive four years in control one way or another if the GOP falls into the Trump trap once again.
It certainly alienated me… and I am not a trump supporter…. personally, i think ABT is the better candidate, nearly almost anyone fits that description. He is toxic to conservativism (never understood why people think hes conservative or ever was…), to clear thinkers and his abhorrent behavior after the 2020 election should have deemed him unsupportable. If the GOP nominates him, it’s their own grave they are digging and deserve the terrible nicknames that follow.
Anyone voting for him is voting for Biden, Inc, Kamala and the Squad.
I had dinner with 5 folks last evening. Our age spread was 50 to 80. 3 of us are liberals and 3 of us (including me) are conservative. We pretty much kept our conversation away from politics. Near the end, however, one of the liberals asked me who I wanted to be elected president in 2024. I answered, “Either Trump or DeSantis,” and asked him the same question in return.
His response was, “I can’t say Biden because I don’t want Harris to become president.” Interesting non-response I thought. So, I said, ”How about you tell us who you want elected in 2024, and you should hypothetically assume that whoever it is, be it Biden, Fetterman, Feinstein or someone else, will last the entire 4 year term.” After we stopped chuckling, he gave more thought to the new version of the question. He then said that Manchin and Klobuchar would be on his list, but he could not pick anyone.
My point: There is at least one liberal who would not say, “Biden is my guy.” To the extent, if any, that he is representative of liberals out there, there is not much motivation to vote FOR Biden.
For context, I too was pleasantly surprised at the policy decisions… if im turned off, you know a lot more are too.
I find it interesting that so many can think that the Dems and the Deep State can make it impossible for Trump to win in 2024 while at the same time thinking that the Dems and the Deep State will happily allow DeSantis to win. I love Ron and will vote for him if he wins the primaries, but I fear that should he win the Dems and the Deep State will do to him what has been done to Trump.
I don’t know if Trump can win in 2024, but he’s the only President to increase his voting numbers in the 2nd election vs the 1st and he increased his share of every demographic except single white college educated women. I’m confident that he actually won in 2020 and I’m certain he can beat Biden again in 2024 without the same fraud that befell 2020. And I think he’s earned our support.
Regardless of what happens in the primaries, we need to be prepared for massive fraud in 2024 and be willing to stand up and refuse to consent to another stolen election.
I have no credibility here at all. I didn’t think Trump could possibly win in 2016, and I didn’t think he could possibly lose in 2020. Wrong on both accounts.
FWIW I’m not convinced that Trump can’t win in 2024. Participants on blogs like this one are way more cerebral than most voters in my opinion. Brand, feel, and the moment are more important than they realize. Anecdotal evidence: an older acquaintance of mine, one of the few people I know who casually says quite racist things, voted for Obama because his 401k was doing bad. But I digress.
The Democratic Party seems to be trying to lose the working class. Who has the political talent to capitalize on that? When I hear Ramaswamy speak of course I love it, he’s talking to people just like me, but he already had me. What the hell does a black steelworker hoping to hell his job exists in a year, who might vote Republican for the first time in his life, think of Ramaswamy’s rhetoric? My guess is, not much.
I’m ranting, but everyone needs to howl at the moon from time to time.
DeSantis is tied to big money and never Trumpers, a losing team.
Drcool#1:
I’d like to see specifics on that.
In “Open Thread” I posted how DeSantis has successfully turned New College, a radical woke school, back to a classical liberal education with NO gender studies or DEI.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2023/08/12/open-thread-8-12-23/#comment-2693457
DeSantis is also revoking the Reedy Creek Improvement Act, which gave Disney very broad powers over Disney World land, because Disney publicly attacked DeSantis’s anti-woke policies in Florida.
I can’t tell how that is going to work out, but I give DeSantis credit. He is not a RINO or NeverTrumper. In fact it feels like a Trump move.
However, Trump has attacked DeSantis for this retaliation against Disney. Which strikes me as the usual attack dog BS Trump habitually pulls.
Voted Trump twice, will vote DeSantis in primary. Of course here in CO it doesn’t matter, but I will still vote. If Trump is the nominee I will vote for him. He does not stand an Ice Cube’s chance in Hades of winning. He carries way too much baggage now, and he can’t stop running his mouth.
Dems will nominate and elect Newsom
“I find it interesting that so many can think that the Dems and the Deep State can make it impossible for Trump to win in 2024 while at the same time thinking that the Dems and the Deep State will happily allow DeSantis to win.”
I’ve never met anyone who thinks that. I agree with the last paragraph though. There will be massive fraud in 2024 and we have to be prepared for it.
The ‘they’ll do the same thing to DeSantis so let’s nominate Trump’ argument is pretty idiotic.
When Trump loses in ’24 won’t this apply in ’28 also? How about ’32? Do we keep nominating him til he dies?
Another thing that will be a sight to behold is watching the Democrats pivot in a second when Newsom becomes the nominee to attack Trump for being too old without even acknowledging the last four years.
One would hope that if DeSantis — with his model wife and family and stellar record as an all-around upstanding guy — is subjected to the same level of deranged vitriol as Trump, it would at long last destroy the public credibility of those who inflict it upon the two of them. There is absolutely no reason for “DeSantis Derangement Syndrome” unless all these people ever took issue with were actually just the conservative policies, not the character of whoever occupies the White House. Which is exactly what most of us expected all along. Time will tell.
Griffin, Griffin, Griffin we are just raising the bar. Democrats use dead voters so we should one up them and run President Trump even after he has passed on. You know, lawfare on them until they return to acceptable political behaviour. (sarc x infinity) 🙂
Seriously though, your point about President Trump running in 2028 or 2032 if he were to “loose” in 2024 is telling. That would be indicative of a personality cult (or insanity)?
I would prefer DeSantis as President- I think he would make a great one, but he isn’t going to win the Presidency even if he overcomes Trump in the primaries.
So, my reasons for wanting DeSantis to be the nominee are thus:
(1) Better President, hands down.
(2) When DeSantis and the Republican candidates for House and Senate seats get buried in mail-in-ballots, I won’t have to pay any mind whatsoever to those who say Trump just has to get out of the way in order for Republicans to start winning elections again. And, believe me- that is a big incentive to me for DeSantis to be the candidate.
Chris B wrote:
The time to be prepared for it is long passed by us, Chris. The Democrats don’t give a s*** what Republicans do to complain about mail-in-ballot fraud- how anyone could miss this lesson from 2020 is flabbergasting. The Democrats controlled the voting apparatuses in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and will still control them in 2024. They also now completely control the voting apparatus in Arizona and still have defacto control of Georgia’s. Even worse, they now completely control the federal government.
They cheated in 2020, and it will only be worse in 2024 as they are working hard to make mail-in-ballot fraud work better at the congressional district level. Hell, you can’t even get nominally Republican judges to care about vote fraud any longer. The game is already lost for 2024.
Mike Plaiss wrote:
In a completely fair election, Trump makes normally very blue Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania competitive. He also makes normal swing states like Ohio and Florida fairly solid wins, and he pulled in Iowa, a normally bluish state with commanding margins in both 2016 and 2020. His detraction is that he drives away some normally weakly Republican voters in what used to be fairly solidly red states like Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. It is trade off, but one the Republican Party has to make because a Republican cannot win the White House without winning at least one of those first three states I mentioned- WI, MI, or PA.
With DeSantis as the candidate, the Democrats in WI, MI, and PA won’t have to cheat to carry the states- they are still 5-10% Democrat leaning in Presidential elections. Trump was sui generis. The Democrats will cheat anyway because they need increase their House delegations in all three. DeSantis is likely pull Georgia back into the win column, but he will have to fight to win Ohio and Iowa, and I fear nothing can bring Arizona back to the red column given the Democrats now control the entire executive parts of the state.
I will put the conditional prediction right here- if DeSantis is the candidate and Trump doesn’t run 3rd party, DeSantis will win all the states Romney won in 2012 except for Arizona. He will lose worse than Romney did in 2012 when Obama won reelection with 7.8% unemployment.
Anyone remember the name Evan Thomas? Typical liberal/leftish journalist who served as editor of Newsweek for years. He occasionally dabbled in intellectual honesty, and once said that liberal media bias was likely worth 15 percentage points of the vote for Democrats. His liberal colleagues howled and he backed off his number to 5 percent. I think he was right the first time.
Mike Plaiss:
I remember him well, and I think he underestimated the first time.
Mike Plaiss:
See this.
Wow. All even worse than I remember.
Neo’s post on Obama from July 2008 was interesting, and it was clear from the comments that there was no real appreciation then of how much the media isn’t just “influencing” the view of candidates, but manipulating it.
We know better now.
neo,
Please be sure to make some time for yourself and your health during this difficult year. I’ve had some years like that (I imagine we all have [isn’t it odd how such things seem to come in waves]) and it’s always surprised me how, once things get normal-ish again I seem to have diminished. Even when it seems I can weather life’s storms with courage, struggles take their toll. Is it nobler to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles and by opposing end them? I guess that’s the question.
You are a fighter. It’s your nature and we are all the better for it. Just don’t forget to take care of yourself also!
In 2016 Trump was The Right Guy; had he been re-elected in 2020 Trump would have been, for the most part, Still The Right Guy, even if only because by then he had learned a lot about Washington.
I suspect Trump was a little surprised that he actually won in 2016; he certainly did not have the infrastructure ready to hand to manage the levers of power, and wound up forced to use swamp dwellers in an attempt to drain the swamp. Doing so will be taught for decades as Political Failure 101 in freshman poly sci courses.
DeSantis is a capable policy and procedure wonk, so he knows the flow. To that end, he’s much better positioned than Trump to apply the tools of the Republic in a governance mode to gain, first, advantage, then success. Ramaswamy understands the structure, but I doubt he has the bench reserves to be much different from Trump. We focus on The President but it’s much, much larger than a one-man-show.
None of this will matter, however, because The Left – Democrats and the media – will not allow anything resembling a capable Republican to get anywhere near the White House’s zip code. And, should the stars somehow align and that does happen, the attacks will be non-stop. Were Mother Teresa to be elected President, if she had an R after her name there would be accusations of rape, murder and racism leveled at her by 2 PM on inauguration day, with witnesses lined up to testify and DOJ investigators galore vying for the opportunity to assist Congress in her impeachment.
Sorry, but if the Republic is to be saved it will not be accomplished with campaign ads and ballot boxes.
Donald Trump will always be the center of attention, but if he were to collapse and become disabled, all the weapons trained on him will be trained on his successor as leader of the GOP whether it be Ron DeSantis or Tim Scott or whosoever. Tim Scott? Uncle Tim. DeSantis? Worse than Trump. etc. Remember when that gentlemanly and somewhat sanctimonious Mitt Romney put the family dog on the roof of his car for a vacation trip? Horrible, soulless! How about when he gave that lady cancer? Disgusting. Worse than Hitler! And he didn’t run out to gab with the garbage man, either.
So, what d we think of our fellow citizens, who fall for this claptrap? Not much. What about such persons’ total surrender to political forces who kept them locked down and silenced while experimental drugs were mandated by the state. Fairly contemptible. But they feel great about themselves.
One begins to understand if not appreciate cynics like H. L Mencken and Mark Twain who took a dim view of the mouthers of platitudes who dominated public discourse in their day. I appreciate the courageous stance of honest, modern liberals such as Matt Taibbi who recognize the value of open inquiry.
No one ever went broke by underestimating the American public. And that goes double for estimates of our credentialed elites.
For the record, many of you know (when I comment I usually reveal this because it’s pertinent to neo’s topics I comment on) that I am trans (not in favor of the trans athlete issues, feel free to ask if you desire). I’m firmly in DeSantis’s camp this year because of the terrible no good unelectable and unsavory trump boorish destruction he wreaks on conservativism, but also the downright disgusting and dishonest and dangerous policies and personalities in the democrat party.
I was once, like neo (which is what drew me to her blog twenty years ago, when I was in college already under attack for my beliefs), the “perfect” democratic voter. Trans, part of the lgbtq community. Grew up in a solidly middle class Jewish family with a strong emphasis in university and higher education. My brother worked on bernie sanders camp. I could go on but you get the idea.
I saw the havoc in those years the democrat party wrought to my then-single issue, israel and the antisemitism it brought with it (anyone remember the Protest Warrior movement?)
Every election since, I have voted for the Republican Party (I am not a republican and will never register as one), with the exception being 2020 (I did not vote for the top line because trump lost my vote with bluster and I’d rather eat my dog than vote for Biden/Kamala).
All this to say, or reiterate perhaps, if trump wins the primary, i again will not vote for him and thus, the gop will have lost another politically homeless voter. It is with great sadness I write that, and a fervent desire to see a non septuagenarian blustering fool win the primary and then the general. To the Trump supporters here, please do the entire country a favor and vote for the Other Guy. Trump is bad for America in 2024 (I didn’t believe in him in 2016, though I again was blown away by his presidency and pleasantly surprised — this will not be the case this time around).
Neo, please take care of yourself. Beyond the blog you write which provides a daily habitual reading for the many years, this is more important than any other thing. Like you, I have had a tremendously challenging year, and know we are not alone in that.
Sorry, Neo, but I must disagree. Dick Harpootlian, who had been the SC Democrat chairman said he did not want to buy the black vote, just wanted to rent it for a day. 11 million eligible voters who could not be bothered to vote for the black guy and be part of history, voted for a dumb guy who couldn’t leave his basement?
Some of those votes were bought (Zuckerburg’s $400 million,) maybe a million or two were “must vote against orange man bad,” the rest were made up.
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the way I see it with 55 senators trump had to struggle with a cup of sugar, the dems were willing to bleed out his cabinet members with lawfare and bogus charges zinke, price, notably, with a tie, the dems got all they wanted, but Trump is bad for conservatism
if you want parents to be targeted, as terrorists, if you want roads to descend to third world status, our electrical grid, to collapse likewise by all means don’t vote,
there is a chance our overseers will still steal it,
It’s a tough one. I believe we live in a police state now. Our vote is pretty flabby, but it’s about the only legal avenue to change available to most citizens. Beyond the legal avenues, I would refer to the honorable Kurt Schlichter. But that goes into the hypothetical cases.
So, I think DeSantis may bring better people to the forefront through a campaign, possibly better for future activities that are legal. Trump is the stronger protest vote, but nobody survives working for Trump.
I personally believe the country is headed for major trouble. War, economic collapse, who knows ? Electing Trump or DeSantis would stop that but they cannot overcome the fraud factor now. It will require the return of hard times to end the Democrats destruction. I’m a fan of World War II books. Reading one now. This country could no longer win WWII. The Democrats are determined to drive us off a cliff. Why ? I don ‘t know. Maybe the Climate Change religion. At my age I probably won’t see it but I have children and grand children and worry about them.
Just remember “Good times make weak men, weak men make hard times, hard times make strong men, strong men make good times.”
No offense, Leah.
Too many people will never vote for Trump. It would take a major miracle to get him elected. It would also be difficult to elect DeSantis, but it might not require divine intervention.
I do wonder if DeSantis will find Washington frustrating. I won’t say he was lucky in Florida, but Tallahassee isn’t Washington DC. True, DeSantis has been a congressman himself, and is more prepared than Trump was to deal with public administration and DC politics, but I can see him getting easily frustrated and letting it get to him. If he has the commanding, “Type A” personality that’s attributed to him it could be his undoing.
There’s also a concern about whether DeSantis’s stress on culture war issues means that he’ll ignore pocketbook issues or sell out on them. A lot of what any president does can be characterized as a sell out, but some Trump voters already have that feeling about Ron.
There’s a conflict between Establishment moderates, Movement conservatives, and those further right in the Republican Party, but outsiders have a feeling that everybody in Washington, Republican or Democrats, does the bidding of big money and special interests. That’s what happens when politicians become part of the club. It usually takes some kind of populist appeal for Republicans to win the White House. Voters will vote for an outsider who doesn’t appear to be subservient to the big interests and politics as usual.
Culture wars don’t generate populist appeal that’s widespread enough to win. Average voters care, but they don’t care as much as those on the frontlines believe they do. Swing voters who chose Biden to bring things “back to normal” didn’t care about how abnormal the Biden years would be. They just wanted to get rid of Trump and didn’t want to hear much more about politics. Swing voters who vote against Biden to bring the country back to sanity don’t want men in women’s bathrooms and women’s sports, or bridges collapsing under the weight of burning electric vehicles, but I don’t know how braced they are for ideological combat. They may just wish those things would go away so that they didn’t have to hear about them.
I was not a big fan of McCain or Romney, but then, as now, there wasn’t some perfect candidate out there who was better and could win. I’ll vote for whoever gets the Republican nomination.
Why would I be offended? That quote, from G Michael Hopf, is not using the word men as referencing male or female or gender at all. Moreover it’s from a post-apocalyptic novel…. Whether you agree with the (trending optimistic but very pessimistic) view doesn’t offend me one way or the other.
I’m a fan of world war 2 books. What are you reading currently?
The way to overcome obvious fraud is overwhelming victory, something trump will never accomplish.
I think people who see trans as meaning “men in women’s bathrooms” are ridiculous.
That aside, I am on the side of (regardless of my own identity and reality) trans athletes being barred from women’s sports. I am not a large person, and pass very well. That said, I recognize the physical advantages male-assigned-at-birth gets and thus, agree with preventing this. I don’t have a solution, and frankly it doesn’t interest me much. It’s a minuscule issue in the trans, and non-trans, world. By focusing on this, you and everyone else is doing a disservice.
There’s such a wide variety of people and expression and experiences and such to limit your narrow view of trans (and culture wars in general) to that is just sad and depressing. Not all of us are leftists, nor do we all support the same issues.
but that is exactly the point, encouraging dysmorphia is a behavior that doesn’t serve any stated interest, if you want to destroy the foundations of society that is something else again, it’s not a matter of choice, it is compulsion and indoctrination,
the dems tell us don’t focus on social issues, yet that has been their wheelhouse, it’s part of a pincer movement with de industrialization, which the gope’s corporate sponsors have encouraged, ‘man does not live by bread alone,’ but he does have to eat bread, more importantly he needs to earn his bread, for his identity as well as his nourishment
Leah:
Not funny, and not ridiculos but the bathroom issue seems to have been the edge of the wedge, perfectly reasonable accommodation to the minority, eh?
Of course the trans-supremacists moved from strength to strength, now the issue is whether parents actually have any voice regarding “their” children’s indoctrination, chemical (hormone blockers or hormone treatment contraindicated based on the individual’s DNA) mainpulation, or physical or surgical mutilation. All done
of course for the “good” of the children.
And of course destruction of female (girl’s and women’s) sports much less women’s rights.
Sorry Leah, no sale.
joe haldeman’s forever war, had an interval where he returns from one of his subliminal expeditions and the totalitarian government has basically mandated non binary behavior, this didn’t call it that in 1971, but that was the gist,
Trump has been more ‘live and let live’ on this practice, he thought it was a fad, economic and foreign policy questions have concerned him more, as has been pointed out, thats’ been a constant since 1987,
Leah:
“Male-assigned-at-birth” = Male. Fixed it for you.
The other is a term imposed by the power of the state. Coercion pure simple is needed to perpetuate falsity.
so is the question on about government spending well the gope proved they were not interested in even nominal reductions in discretionary spending re mulvaney’s
first budget, nor necessary efforts like wall building, conversely they went all in on a proxy war of choice against Russia, so what exactly is your beef with orange man* the way the dems have enabled the collapse of most private savings, entitlement reductions are rather fraught with peril, for many,
*admittedly a silly shorthand, but works for the purposes of this exercise,
How immune to bribery is the 2024 field? Trump and Ramaswamy have the protection of personal wealth. DeSantis has his record in Florida, but for reasons not clear to me, he has RINOs on his side. The latter is a significant question. Since he’s taking their money, he may be disinclined to explain.
And then there’s RFK Jr.
Oh yes, and Cornel West, whom we need to stay in the race to the bitter end.
I don’t think the press was worth 15 points for BO contra McCain. Contra Hellary and skeezy John Edwards, perhaps.
=
John McCain was facing a perfect storm of problems in 2008. Incumbent parties seeking a 3d term at the wheel face a headwind in the best of circumstances. Failures in Iraq had badly damaged the GOP brand. Then you had 10 major financial firms imploding in the fall of 2008; the Republicans were not at fault in this regard, but they get stuck with the bill as the incumbent party. John McCain stupidly hired grifters to run his campaign, something Robert Stacy McCain pointed out at the time and something the subsequent behavior of Steven Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace has made plain.
yes in 2000 he had hired john weaver, who went over to the underverse in the subsequent years, schmidt who had improved somewhat from his legendary (not in a good way) campaign for a california office, manafort was in that crew, where he spent more time actually lobbying for Russian oligarch then he did a decade later,
I forget who was guiliani’s campaign manager, but they did him no favors either,
Not selling anything. You have your views, I have mine. Only difference here is you want to force yours on me, not the other way around.
culture wars bad, except then they do it, trump focuses on economic and foreign policy, to a a large extent, the gope were worse on all these fronts,
Banned Lizard:
I think it’s clear why RINOs would back DeSantis. He has plenty of conservatives in his camp, too, but RINOs who really really dislike Trump would just naturally back the person they perceive as his strongest challenger. That’s DeSantis. It seems pretty clear to me that that would be the case.
Force views on who? Pronouns, anyone? LOL, ROTFL.
“Lia” Thomas was all about women (an actual thing) getting views of his anatomy (junk) in the women’s locker room. He was (were?) just a run of the mill male collegiate swimmer until he got trans-mogrified. Women getting “views” of junk can be expect to be “normalized” by the trans-supremacists.
Bane of Lizards:
Ron de Santis isn’t rich so he can be bribed? Wink, wink, nod, nod. Somehow honesty and good character is dependent on wealth?
Thankfully Bill Gates, George Soros, Zuckerberg, Putin, and Xi(?) are fabulously wealthy and thus can’t be bribed?
There’s also a concern about whether DeSantis’s stress on culture war issues means that he’ll ignore pocketbook issues or sell out on them. A lot of what any president does can be characterized as a sell out, but some Trump voters already have that feeling about Ron.
I am a bit concerned about that and his quick flip on Ukraine. Ukraine seems to be the equivalent of a Brinks truck that overturned and all the money spilled out. All politicians, of both parties, seem to running for the truck.
Leah, I’m reading Andrew Roberts’ “Masters and Commanders”
He is a bit biased for the Brits but he is one and it’s understandable.
As for forcing our opinions on you, I have known transgender people since I was a child. Gene Krupa’s brother was one. My parents were friends with Gene Krupa, the drummer in the 1930s. It’s children we are concerned about.
yes hes of middle class roots, his father sold air conditioners, now he’s gotten some well healed donors like ken griffin of citadel capital, but who hasnt’ I don’t like silly arguments, now florida is not a heavy industrial state, so this isn’t in his wheelhouse, but some high tech has started to venture here,
Mike K:
DeSantis did not flip on Ukraine. He clarified what he had said, and it was essentially the same with a very slightly different emphasis. Somewhere on this blog is a fairly lengthy discussion about that, in which I participated. I’ve been having trouble finding it again. But the anti-DeSantis forces, which have been very active from the start and include people on both left and right, have been pushing this “he flipped-flopped” message, and most people never look at what he actually said.
One could argue that President Trump has gone soft (flipped) on the abortion issue and on societal rot issues (taking the side of Disney). Oh noes!
One could argue that Trump’s position is less doctrinaire, more appealing to less-ideological, middle of the road and undecided voters and therefore better poised to win the general election.
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna92392
Oh yes, President Trump has often been the candidate of subtle policy positions for the discerning middle of the road voter. (sarc)
omg that was a patently silly take, encouraging mental disorder does not help anyone,
Ron DeSantis boosts a video that all but calls for eliminating trans people
==
There are strange, willful people who have an interest in poisoning themselves with hormones and being surgically mutilated. If the medical profession were worth squat as a guild, these people would be sent on their way and any physician or surgeon interested in accommodating them treated like the late-career Walter Freeman.
It still amazes me that Trumpers can’t accept just how unpopular their guy is in the general electorate. The universe of voters who will crawl over broken glass to vote AGAINST Trump is quite large, most likely larger than the universe of only-Trump voters.
It still amazes me that Trumpers can’t recognize the extent to which Trump’s flaws enable his enemies. If there’s no reason to pay $150k in hush money to a porn star, there’s no NY case. If you don’t go around saying dumb things about Putin, something like Russiagate is a lot harder to pull off. If you don’t try to implement your travel ban while the Obama-appointed Sally Yates is still the acting AG, you don’t get the spectacle of the DOJ claiming (falsely) that there was no reasonable legal argument in favor of your position. If you are able to attract solid political appointees and support them, they don’t get caught lying to a court and you don’t get your census question thrown out. If you don’t attempt a ridiculous anti-Constitution stunt by trying to get the VP to refuse electoral votes in January after the election, you don’t put yourself in a position where your supporters (goaded or otherwise) decide to riot at the capital and mar the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in two and half centuries.
As for – “They’ll do the same thing to DeSantis or anyone else.” Of course they will. They did the same thing to Reagan. The difference is that DeSantis (and virtually every other Republican running) possess a modicum of discipline. Trump’s level of discipline is almost precisely zero. Trump is like chum to a pack of hungry sharks:
Trump skeptics: “Hey, maybe it isn’t such a good idea to fill the water with chum before you jump in.”
Trumpers: “But those sharks are going to attack anyone who goes into the water!”
its rather pitiful, but that these crazy people have gone all shelley (frankenstein) and wells (moreau) I think this is malpractice of the highest order,
well Biden would be running away with it, five to ten points if that were true, but the facts on the grounds, pardon my french, suck eggs, new york and los angeles don’t like trump, stop the presses, Raccoon city, Atlanta, which is where I think they shot the films, issues another proscription, a day ending in y,
I am in both camps, I appreciate desantis efforts, but if he keeps having remorae like jeff roe on staff, I’d have to vote vivek, i’m quixotic that way, but I see the dumpster fire in the front windshield,
fat alvin is a criminal in the guise of law enforcement, think boss hogg or the sheriff of nottingham,* there is nothing honest or decent about anything he does,
*I was watching the ridley scott version with russell crowe, the way he recasts the story, robin is just an archer, in the service of a loxley, not a knight, who takes the name with the cooperation of the greaving father,
If you don’t have TDS you can sort the wheat from the chaff regarding President Trump. If you see President Trump as “The Great Orange Whale,” there is no end to your anguish.
there’s a salve for that, probably I haven’t really investigated,
The trans-supremacists are pushing the propaganda that trans affectation is a license for murder of such individuals. It seems that trans-afflicted people who are truly over the edge have fixated on such propaganda and resorted to mass murder of normal people. You see, the impending gender-cide requires lethal resistance. Ends and means, always useful.
I like both Trump and Desantis and wish I could say that they liked each other.
We the people who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 were robbed of a fair election in 2020. Trump was not robbed we were. At least he keeps saying hat this is about us and he is just the guy standing between us and them. I wish he would remember that as the nomination contest unfolds.
I do not think it is currently possible for any conservative or ant Republican (whether GOPe or other) to win in the Electoral College without winning Georgia. If you think I am wrong, do the math. It is inconceivable to me how Trump can win Georgia with Kemp et al lined-up against him. While it is not certain that Desantis or any other not-Trump nominee would win Georgia, they have a fighting chance with the support of Kemp and with Georgia’s new voting regime.
the way I see it, kemp and sterling betrayed their oaths, in certifying an obviously flawed canvas, and he did it last year with the walker race,
“Logical arguments like those of Deace don’t tend to change minds, and that is particularly true where strong emotion is involved.”
It is jolting to see emotion move to the forefront in conservative minds. We have always had the advantage of rational, logical, morally grounded argument and decision making. Just when the left is dissolving into a mush of emotional slop, when we can cut through them like a knife through melted butter… we’re going to melt the knife as well? I hope not, I pray not.
Trump is an old loser. He should be forced to step aside by the vast majority of conservative voters, and support DeSantis.
its not about trump, i’m persuadable on any of the top 3, now if they succeed, the last 250 odd years of blood sweat and tears would be for naught,
yes there’s a bragg wannabe in barnstable, (county of marthas vineyard) who wants to charge desantis
It still amazes me that Trumpers can’t accept just how unpopular their guy is in the general electorate. The universe of voters who will crawl over broken glass to vote AGAINST Trump is quite large, most likely larger than the universe of only-Trump voters.
Most of that “universe” consists of Democrats. Most of us Republicans prefer votes to hysterical outbursts. I do fear that no Republican can win next year. The fraud machine is still in charge and is being funded by the donor class.
Neo, DeSantis flip looked like a flip to me. I guess I don’t see those subtle clues.
Who, if anybody, is the animal spirits candidate?
Like it not, Trump is less ideological and more moderate than DeSantis on abortion.
Are you picking the eventual winner of the beauty contest or choosing the most beautiful contestant?
DeSantis is @ 17%. Your boy is literally a midget in lifts.
https://youtu.be/suvJai5IC6c
That’s what Hillary’s supporters said about Bernie in 2016. Maybe the republicans need superdelegates, too.
Trump will get the nomination ( I agree with you – there is too much of an emotional factor in his loyalists) and get crushed in the general election by the worst president since the end of the Civil War. Trump will throw another emotional fit and probably have a nervous break down. Good times ahead! /sarcasm
One side effect of getting older is that when someone around your age dies, you want to know what they died from.
https://www.thirdway.org/series/the-dangerous-illusion-of-a-presidential-third-party-in-2024
Is it that you don’t see a way to win with Trump? Or is it that you’d rather the democrat win than be stuck with Trump again??
It was a three-way race with an unpopular incumbent that saddled the American people with the administrative state in 1912.
A three-way race in 2024 could finally be the end.
That was obviously for Leah.
Leah: have you seen the DeSantis anti-lgbt video? DeSantis totally rips on Trump for holding up a rainbow flag from his gay supporters, of which he has many.
Yeah, it was hi-Larry-us the way Trump reacted to the coup LOL!!!!1111
Mentus:
This:
Also:
That said, I think promoting the video was a stupid move.
Mentus:
You write: “Is it that you don’t see a way to win with Trump? Or is it that you’d rather the democrat win than be stuck with Trump again??”
Is that a real question? I don’t know whether you’re a fairly new reader here, but I don’t think there’s a person here who would rather the democrat win than be stuck with Trump again. In addition, just about everyone here thought that Trump was a fairly good president. However, I (and some others) feel Trump has shown poorer judgment about a lot of things since the fall of 2020, and that he has also alienated many more people and cannot win in 2024. Whether any other Republican could win is both an unknown and perhaps a moot question, since Trump may cruise to the nomination.
But I don’t think there’s a single commenter here who would prefer Biden or another Democrat. I can’t even imagine what would prompt you to ask the question, if you’ve read much of the commentary here.
Mike K:
Did the DeSantis “flip” “look like a flip” to you because you read both statements and compared them? Or did it look like a flip to you because you read edited sound bites from them and commentary on them from people looking to criticize him? I read the latter. Then I read the former. I make my decisions based on the former.
Propaganda works, though.
By the way, I did find my analysis of DeSantis’ original statement. It’s here. Can’t find what I wrote comparing that to his clarification statement, though. I think I did it in a series of comments, and that’s harder to find.
I think running against Trump was a stupid move. Not because Trump is a better executive…because he isn’t and will *never* be… but because DeSantis is apparently innumerate.
You need MAGA votes to win, dum-dum DeSantis.
If you knock Trump out of the republican box, he’ll show up in his own third-party box and bring a sizable chunk of the MAGA votes with him.
And even if DeSantis wins the nomination… which he won’t /eyeroll… he’ll need to employ a scorched-earth campaign to wrest control of the party from Trump, to prove his arch-conservative bona fides and emerge as the standard bearer for the movement. Do you think DeSantis emerges triumphant from a political death-struggle with Trump without suffering near-fatal wounds?
You’re stuck with him, sorry. Need to find a way to make this work.
I don’t know… is it??
Just kidding. I’ve been an occasional lurker for years. Haven’t commented since… 2015 or 2016??
Instapundit brought me back here a couple days ago.
Maybe it’s the people who are proud to testify that they lack the imagination to see any possible way Trump could ever, ever win in 2024, without taking into consideration incipient third party campaigns.
It’s obtuse. Is it deliberate??
https://youtu.be/I7wREOySaxU
Mentus, a long time lurker (no one knows you are a dog on the internet, so no one knows how long a lurker has lurked either, a Schrodinger’s dog) now claims Ron de Santis is innumerate.
Come now Mentus, that is truly weak tea.
Unfortunately, President Trump has many NYC social /cultural positions which many let pass in 2016 and 2020.
It ain’t 2016 or 2020 and this ain’t Kansas, Dorothy (Mentus).
At least I know how to make an argument.
I’m getting old. Time dilation is increasingly a problem for me.
It was 2019, last time I dropped a comment.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2019/10/23/the-federal-bureaucracy-is-a-mortal-threat-to-america/
Help me understand your “argument”.
Is saying “DeSantis is innumerate because he cant make the electoral math work once MAGA is subtracted” weak tea because I’m Schrödinger’s lurker??
Are you saying that DeSantis’ more ideologically consistent right-wing position on issues like abortion and lgbt vanguardism will play better with the less-ideological, less right-wing general election voters? Do tell!!
People who don’t know anyone who owns a pickup truck have no idea what the working class is going through. They have no idea why Trump is attractive.
And for some reason, they seem no more curious than David Brooks to understand any of it.
Mentus:
Try clicking your heels together, (Dorothy).
The left has moved even further, or haven’t you been paying attention? It doesn’t seem so.
I don’t own a pick up truck, I know people who do, I know a few that own high end sports cars, who manage tech companies, who are homemakers,
so the medici bush jr focused more on cultural rather than economic issues, and he won, at least for a time, mccain was a themeless pudding, who took a dive, and romney tried practicing sociology without a license,
I do remember the architect, rove, did let them cheat to a thin sliver of a hair’s breath, 537 votes
Stop biting my ankles, (Toto).
I’m on a construction site right now, homie.
Mentus, get over yourself.
Are you the Great Oz, or just a wannabe?
At a construction site, ooh, not impressed. 🙂