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Open thread 8/7/23 — 52 Comments

  1. Frightened by the performance or the overwrought and over dramatized reactions of the panelists and audience? 🙂

    I thought it was fun and challenging, as physicsguy says, worthy of Cirque.

  2. VDH does an excellent job with this. https://amgreatness.com/2023/08/07/the-remaking-of-america/

    “We are in the midst of one of the most radical revolutions in American history. It is as far-reaching and dangerous as the turbulent years of the 1850s and 1860s or the 1930s. Every aspect of American life and culture is under assault, including the very processes by which we govern ourselves, and the manner in which we live.

    The Revolution began under the Obama administration that sought to divide Americans into oppressed and oppressors, and then substitute race for class victimization. It was empowered by the bicoastal wealth accrued from globalization, and honed during the COVID lockdown, quarantine-fed economic downturn, and the George Floyd riots and their aftermath. The Revolution was boosted by fanatic opposition to the presidency of Donald Trump. And the result is an America that is unrecognizable from what it was a mere decade ago.

    Here are 10 upheavals that the Left has successfully wrought.

  3. What is going on in America is basically a slow motion version of the Chinese Cultural Revolution that has been modified for American society.

  4. This: https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/rankings
    is very interesting.

    The University of Toronto used cell phone data in downtown areas of 63 major cities and compared 2019 to 2023 to gauge “recovery” compared with pre-COVID levels.

    This completely jibes with what I have observed in the cities on the list I have visited recently. Things are different everywhere, radically so in many places. But I don’t hear a lot of concern. I have read a few articles about a pending commercial real estate crash when commercial leasing agreements reach the end of their terms, but I don’t hear much else. The data on this chart shows a seismic shift, and my experience shows a seismic shift, but I don’t notice corresponding alarmism in the business world.

  5. “DeSantis At NH Town Hall: Trump “running in 2024 on the things that he promised to do in 2016 and didn’t do”

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/08/desantis-at-nh-town-hall-trump-running-in-2024-on-the-things-that-he-promised-to-do-in-2016-and-didnt-do/

    “He’s running in 2024 on the things that he promised to do in 2016 and didn’t do,” DeSantis said. “He said he was going to drain the swamp. [2) Build the wall, 3) Lock-up Hillary, and 4) Eliminate the national debt.]” — Ron DeSantis

    “DeSantis is right, of course, since Trump is pretty much just promising the same things he promised—and failed—to do in 2016: the wall, draining the swamp, eliminate our national debt, and etc.” — Fuzzy Slippers

    I. I will vote for the candidate that wins the Republican nomination – Trump, DeSantis, … – in part because history shows that that is the best candidate for the general election (i.e., no examples over past 20 elections that the 2nd place Republican primary candidate could have won the general election).

    But for the life of me I cannot understand how some of DeSantis’ most ardent supporters expect to win over others when they: a) Will not acknowledge Trump’ tremendous successes as President, and b) Try to measure his successes against campaign goals that Trump did not set for himself in 2016, or 2024.

    II. Trump’ Campaign Goals

    • Have not found a single source – other than DeSantis or Democrat partisans – that claim that Trump’ 2016 campaign goals included: Eliminate the national debt.

    • Have not found a single source – other than DeSantis or some of his supporters – that claim that Trump’ 2024 campaign goals include: ‘Lock-up Hillary’.

    • Have not found a single source that claims that the scope of the ‘Drain The Swamp’ problem Trump campaigned on in 2016 – term limits, lobbying & campaign financing – defines the scope today.

    • It is also 100% disingenuous for DeSantis to assign 2016 goals to Trump that Trump did not have, or to assign 2024 goals to Trump that he does not have, or to pretend that in 2016 Trump ran on the current scope of the Drain the Swamp problem – and DeSantis is not himself any favors.

    III. Trump’ 1st Term Success

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trumps-list-289-accomplishments-in-just-20-months-relentless-promise-keeping

    Lastly, DeSantis does deserve credit for what happened in FL – along with the Republican House & Senate majorities – however, even DeSantis did not deliver on every campaign promise – which I do not see as a knock on him or Trump.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20181106211606/https://rondesantis.com/issues/

    What I do consider as a knock-on DeSantis is his Priorities, and the ‘The-Dog-Did-Not-Bark’ factors – for example:

    • Economy: On July 31 – for the first time – DeSantis posted about the Economy on his campaign website.

    https://rondesantis.com/

    • Congress: There are 20 Republicans in the House from FL, and 13 have endorsed a primary candidate – 12 for Trump, and 1 for DeSantis.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-endorsements/
    _______________________________________________________

  6. The video is one of the wildest things in that vein that I’ve seen.
    Netflix has a series called Cheer about these extreme cheerleader performances.
    Season 1 has an instance or two where serious injuries occur in aerial mishaps.

  7. endorsements are worth the paper they are printed on, which is often in the fish wrap I have often referred to,

  8. come on man, you don’t like desantis, fine but don’t rest on that silly reed,

  9. Re: what Trump said he would do as prez vs. what he actually did

    When Trump was prez, he had a good percentage of the republicans in Congress against him, all demonkrats , the entire federal bureaucracy/deep state, the media and who know which of his close “advisors” were Quislings. .
    Atop all this, Covid came along and unfortunately for Trump, he at first anyway,
    took “advice” from that dishonest IL DUCE wannabe, Tony Fauci.

    A president -but apparently only republican presidents – do not have dictatorial powers.

    IMHO due to the fact that Trump had never before been in politics, he was unaware of the magnitude of back stabbing, deceit, double-crossing, status seeking and just plain dishonesty which is par for the course in DC politics.

    He probably just thought crappy decisions came out of DC due to plain-Jane incompetence and stupidity, of which in DC there is plenty. But he certainly underestimated the depth of depravity and deceit in that shit hole.

    If Trump does become the next president he at least will be aware of the true nature of the scum that populate the open sewer that is DC.

  10. This reminds me of watching a circus act, but with better costumes and graphics, and without the hay bales and elephant smell. I wonder if this evolved from these two young ladies being bored at cheerleader camp.

  11. That guy:

    Eliminating the national debt:
    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-deficit-debt-cbo-data-obama-1463802

    Lock her up:
    https://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/29/politics/donald-trump-lock-her-up/index.html

    Drain the swamp: You’re playing word games. Trump promised to enact regulation on term limits, lobbying, or campaign finance. He didn’t. You can’t wiggle out of that broken promise by claiming that the scope of the problem is changed. Trump said he was going to fix it. His plan didn’t fail, he just never bothered to implement it:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/10/18/donald-trump-rally-colorado-springs-ethics-lobbying-limitations/92377656/

    Trump talks a lot. His follow through often leaves something to be desired. That is a truth that needs to be spoken.

  12. The below bullet point from an article on EV car sales at Heartland
    https://heartland.org/opinion/unsold-electric-cars-may-be-signaling-a-death-spiral-for-the-auto-industry/
    makes the most crucial point on governments’ push to EV, yet even the article’s author seems to fail to see the significance.

    I read and hear people mocking EVs because their manufacture and raw materials are heavy polluters (strip mining lithium, for example) and no nation’s power grid is sufficient to support universal EV use. Governments know this. They see the short term increase in pollution as a trade off for the long term ability to limit everyone’s driving (and mobility). An all electric consumer base (no gas cooking, no gas vehicles, no gas generators) can be controlled by the government through electrical utilities. This is also why they don’t care about China building coal fired plants for electricity production. Electric = central control.

    The UK Electric Vehicles (Smart Charge Points) Regulations 2021 came into force on June 30, 2022. All home installed electric vehicle chargers are required to be separately metered and send information to the Smart meter data communications network. Potentially this legislation allows the electricity used for charging EVs to be charged and taxed at a higher rate than domestic electricity. The technology enacted also enables the rationing of electricity for EV charging because the government can decide when and if an EV can be charged, plus it also allows the EV battery to be drained into the grid if required.

  13. Regarding my above comment, this is what it will be:

    Government: “Look, we’re not saying you cannot load the kids in the car and drive to the beach, or air-condition your home or have a home theater or cook steaks. We’re just saying each consumer gets XX kilowatt hours/year and you’ve hit your limit.”

  14. Rufus T. Firefly – I agree that a seismic shift has taken place. That shift is great for mid-to-late career professionals who gain hours a week that they are no longer sitting in a car or standing on a train.

    One underdiscussed consequence, though, is that the shift really isn’t so good for young people. Remote work is woefully inefficient at training new employees, many of whom prefer to live in or around downtown anyway and therefore don’t even save the commute time.

  15. @physicsguy I’m sure Cirque is already trying to sign this group.

    First thing that popped into my mind, it gave me Vegas flashbacks.

  16. Bauxite,

    I agree. There must be other, huge changes happening also. The real estate is an obvious one. What happens with all the under used commercial real estate?

    Restaurants, bars that cater to a lunch and happy hour clientele. What happens to the owners of those businesses?

    Commuter rail. When wealthy suburbanites are not traveling by train to the city, or only traveling once or twice a week, what happens to ridership revenue?

    Maybe I’m missing the reporting, but there must be shifts in these areas, and many other economic impacts.

  17. that guy:

    You left out the part where DeSantis also praised Trump and said he’d accomplished “great things” as president. Most DeSantis supporters agree.

    Also, just to respond to one of your allegations about Trump’s promises during the 2016 campaign, he said he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton.

  18. @ Bauxite Appreciate the effort

    1) “Eliminating the national debt:”

    Are you claiming that was a Trump campaign goal in 2016? And that it is a campaign goal for Trump in 2024? That is the claim DeSantis made.

    • It’s true that Trump stated in his WP interview that we are a debtor nation that needs to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt – as part of an answer to a question about a line in a book he wrote in 1990 – but neither the WP or Trump claimed that he entered the interview with that being one of his campaign goals (please see transcript below).

    • It is also true that a few weeks later in an interview with Fortune, Trump spoke about reducing some of the debt – not all – and the need to avoid being aggressive because of the need to spend on priorities (please see USA/ Fortune quotes below).

    • To be fair, both statements should be considered – same topic – and when they are it is easy to understand why ‘Eliminating the National Debt’ was not noted by Trump as a campaign goal – in 2016 or 2020. Despite Democrat talking points.

    *****

    RC: We were looking over your 1990 book, Surviving at the Top.

    DT: Right.

    RC: And thinking about, what would happen if Trump’s president of the United States? And you — this is a line from your book, then: “The same assets that excite me in the chase often, once they are acquired, leave me bored. For me, you see, the important thing is the getting, not the having.” If you get the presidency, you are going to have it.

    DT: Yeah, but see, that’s not the getting. The getting, for me, is to make our country great again. The getting — that’s just a part of it. The getting the position is not the real getting. For me, the getting is — and that’s when I’ll say, congratulations everyone, my job is finished. We will make our country financially strong again….We can’t protect the entire world. You look at our military budget, it’s massive compared to any other country. But what are we doing? We’re taking care of the military needs of all these countries. And these countries are much richer than us. We’re not a rich country. We’re a debtor nation. We’ve got to get rid of — I talked about bubble. We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt.

    BW: How long would that take?

    DT: I think I could do it fairly quickly, because of the fact the numbers . . . .

    BW: What’s fairly quickly?

    DT: Well, I would say over a period of eight years. And I’ll tell you why.

    BW: Would you ever be open to tax increases as part of that, to solve the problem?

    DT: I don’t think I’ll need to. The power is trade. Our deals are so bad.

    BW: That would be $2 trillion a year.

    DT: No, but I’m renegotiating all of our deals, Bob. The big trade deals that we’re doing so badly on. With China, $505 billion this year in trade. We’re losing with everybody. And a lot of those deals — a lot of people say, how could the politicians be so stupid? It’s not that they’re stupid. It’s that they’re controlled by lobbyists and special interests who want those deals to be made.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/02/transcript-donald-trump-interview-with-bob-woodward-and-robert-costa/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumppresidency-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

    “A few weeks later, Trump backpedaled a bit, telling Fortune magazine he would reduce some – but not all – of the debt because he wanted to spend on his priorities.

    It depends on how aggressive you want to be,” Trump told Fortune. “I’d rather not be so aggressive. Don’t forget: We have to rebuild the infrastructure of our country. We have to rebuild our military, which is being decimated by bad decisions. We have to do a lot of things.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/10/27/donald-trump-has-failed-keep-campaign-pledge-erase-national-debt/3682405001/

    *****

    2) “Lock her up:”

    Are you claiming that is a Trump campaign goal in 2024? That is the claim DeSantis made.

    If so, your link to an article from July 2016 does not support that position. Happy to review anything else you provide.

    Again, appreciate the effort.

  19. @ Bauxite Appreciate the effort

    3) “Drain the swamp: You’re playing word games. Trump promised to enact regulation on term limits, lobbying, or campaign finance. He didn’t. You can’t wiggle out of that broken promise by claiming that the scope of the problem is changed. Trump said he was going to fix it. His plan didn’t fail, he just never bothered to implement it:”

    a) 100% agree: “Trump promised to enact regulation on term limits, lobbying, or campaign finance.”

    • It is true that Trump spoke about Fixing Broken Washington/ Draining The Swamp in 2016 – as had others before – and that Trump’ problem scope was centered around “Ethics Reform” (i.e., term limits, lobbying & campaign financing).

    • It is also true that he had some initial success with the problem scope that did not require legislative action – lobbying – and that he can be, and is criticized for rescinding those measures when he left office.

    • It is also true that it would require legislative action to address term limits and campaign financing – and that most citizens recognized that Trump faced the same challenges others had faced when trying to enact the same Ethics Reform.

    • It is also true that I believe not delivering on every campaign goal is not always a knock on a candidate – see “…even DeSantis did not deliver on every campaign promise – which I do not see as a knock on him or Trump.” Some may disagree.

    b) 100% disagree: “You’re playing word games”.

    • If you agree that we are both using the same scope of the problem – to discuss what Trump campaigned on in 2016 – then I think it is possible to agree that I am not playing word games when I wrote: “Have not found a single source that claims that the scope of the ‘Drain The Swamp’ problem Trump campaigned on in 2016 – term limits, lobbying & campaign financing – defines the scope today.”

    • It is true that citizens know of the expression ‘Drain The Swamp’; however, I think it is very unlikely in 2023 that they think the problem scope is limited to what Trump campaigned on in 2016 – if they even know that information.

    • It is DeSantis and some of his supporters that are clearly “playing word games” when they fail to acknowledge the “the scope of the problem is changed. “.

    Again, appreciate the effort. And truth-be-told, this was not the “push back” I was hoping for.

  20. that guy:

    There was nothing equivocal in what I wrote. I said that Trump’s stated goal was to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary C. He said that many times.

    He also encouraged all that “lock her up” stuff in connection with it. Many many of his supporters certainly felt that was a goal of his, and it certainly was a goal of theirs as well. But his stated goal and intent was to appoint the special prosecutor, which he never did.

  21. @Neo

    “You left out the part where DeSantis also praised Trump and said he’d accomplished “great things” as president. Most DeSantis supporters agree.”

    • 100% agree that my post did not cover that DeSantis statement.

    • To be fair, the Legal Insurrection headline & story did not either – and that was the headline & story that I was responding too.

    • It is true that DeSantis supporters can and do believe that Trump accomplished “great things”; however, in the comments that I read – here and elsewhere – most are not as generous as yourself.

    • It is also true that comments on a blog is a very small sample size – and it might be “most” or it might not – I do not know the answer to that. But I do think that my advice is useful, regardless if “most” or something else.

    Hope this helps.

  22. Rufus T, I’m with you on your concerns. The economy keeps muddling along despite supply chain problems, inflation, and an apparent shortage of workers. Underneath it is that looming commercial real estate problem, massive credit card debt, and high interest rates (new home & car sales tanking), many new labor contracts driving wages higher for unionized groups, and massive layoffs in tech that have not yet impacted the economy.

    We are in a period of stagflation, even though Biden and his Bidenomics keep touting new job creation. Those new jobs are mostly people filling jobs that were lost during the pandemic. The economy is not growing as fast as they claim.

    So many chickens out there that will be coming home to roost. It seems rather spooky. B of A sees no recession. Just more confirmation that the economists don’t see the underlying weaknesses? I’m not confident.

  23. @Neo

    “Also, just to respond to one of your allegations about Trump’s promises during the 2016 campaign, he said he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton.”

    Are you claiming that is a Trump campaign goal in 2024? That is the claim DeSantis made.

    • In any case, 100% agree that “he said he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton.”

    • That was one of the best moments I have ever witnessed in a debate – a true ‘Truth to Power’ moment.

    • It is true that after the debate Trump spoke often about the need to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton.

    • It is also true that Trump fired Comey in May, 2017 – made decision to not investigate Clinton – and shortly thereafter his AG recused himself and his DAG appointed a special prosecutor to investigate Russian interference, etc. – which greatly complicated things for Trump.

    • It is also true that a President cannot appoint a special prosecutor, and that Trump continued to publicly press his AG to do so (please see dates below in link below).

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/358772-timeline-trump-calls-for-clinton-to-be-investigated/

    • To be fair, it is pretty clear that Trump tried to have Clinton investigated, and it strikes me as 100% disingenuous of DeSantis to claim Trump is running in 2024 to lock Hillary up because he did not do so before. Also strikes me as unwise of DeSantis to list that as a Trump 2024 campaign goal – when it is not, which is my point.

    https://www.wmur.com/article/ron-desantis-new-hampshire-town-hall/44737596

    Again, hope this helps.

  24. JJ,

    I agree with all you wrote. It’s all very disconcerting to me.
    That chart I linked with cellphone data corresponds to what I visually see in urban areas.
    I see it when I drive through big cities during rush hour times.
    I see it when I’m in a big box store and there is 1/2, 1/3 the staff I used to see. I was just in a Target in New England and different stations within the store had little signs up; “Back in 15 minutes.” “Back in 30 minutes.”

    I have to book at least two weeks in advance to get my tires rotated per the “lifetime warranty” I purchased. Pre-COVID I could always get in same day or next day. I had to make an appointment over a week out to get my annual auto emission test. In the past I could always get it done within an hour of showing up.
    Many restaurants are now closing one or more days a week.

    I don’t know where everyone is. And I don’t know where the economy is. I feel like Patrick McGoohan in “The Prisoner.”

  25. I am four-square behind extending ‘cheer’ activities involving young ladies at sporting events to include acrobatic feats.

  26. @ neo, re: “Freaks” video:

    I’m with you. As the mother of more than one child who could have died an (actual) accidental death (but didn’t), and as someone who has been categorized as a Conservative/Conservator, I feel that that performance must equate to a major definition of “Child Endangerment”. If we agree that minors are not capable of making life-and-death decisions for themselves, it follows that an adult is signing off on this high-risk-of death activity for this 9-year-old. (Some places don’t allow a child to take an aspirin or get a tattoo if under 18!) I can only conclude that “the love of money is the root of all evil”, and that her legal guardian(s) value her earning potential more than they do her actual life. (An adult male stunt man with many successes recently fell 400+ stories to his death in Hong Kong. He had done such stunts before. But he never will again.)

  27. Rufus T., it’s good to read about your in-person observations. If you have an inquisitive mind, and you do, you can tell when things aren’t normal.

    I used to try to read the tea leaves back when I was still flying for an airline. Laying over in many different places gave a feel for the crime level, the economics, and the governance. When you check into a layover hotel and there’s security guard with a German Shepherd and a machine gun in the lobby, you get the message that crime is a problem in that city. 🙂 If you go for a jog while on layover, and see a lot of graffiti and litter, you get the message that the city is poorly managed. Etc.

    There’s so much government money sloshing around the system, that it keeps driving prices higher even when there’s no real growth. It can’t go on like this, and I suspect it will eventually end badly.

    Thanks for keeping us posted on what you’re seeing.

  28. because she had committed actual crimes, destruction of evidence, unauthorized possession of documents, et al, of course the tripwire they had set up starting with the steele dossier, the attack on general flynn, the sessions recusal on spurious grounds, made that point moot, the one man who might have actually tried to bring a charge, matt whitaker, they pulverized,

  29. of course, desantis has doubled up on voter id, narrowed mail ballot availability so he doesn’t really believe that,

  30. Bauxite – “Trump promised to enact regulation on term limits, lobbying, or campaign finance. He didn’t.”

    One bad idea I’m glad he didn’t. (Of course, there’s more.) Because empirical data show that the net effect of term limits on representation show that result will embiggen the powers of bureaucracies, and simultaneously diminish the capacity for oversight vested in the legislative branches.

    It’s a case of popular, well intended reform defeated by the interplay of rival institutions.

    JUST DON’T DO IT.

  31. JJ and Rufus T Firefly on the University of Toronto post-Covid recovery data, urban comps.

    “I see it when I drive through big cities during rush hour times. I see it when I’m in a big box store and there is 1/2, 1/3 the staff I used to see.”

    TRUE. But it is not at all as bad outside the US and Canada.

    It’s much different in Mexico and Continental Europe. If you can manage it, go and see for yourself.

    I recall lockdown time in Auckland, where we hostel residents contemplated this very obvious future challenge. We require re-socializing or revival of forgotten habits

    One solution to act and a spread widely is this: hold a post-Covid or Born Again housewarming style meet and greet party with neighbors!

    Practice exactly what needs preaching.

  32. Rufus, again on cities non-recovery.

    “Things are different everywhere, radically so in many places. But I don’t hear a lot of concern.”

    Well, we have St Joe Biden leading us forward after Covid. And Bidenomics is such a roaring success! Hey, we Deep State DC creatures don’t even have to jigger the Official Economic data to show that!

    (EXCEPT they do, rgey realy do for well over a year.9

  33. Re: Cell phone activity recovery by city

    The data on this chart shows a seismic shift, and my experience shows a seismic shift, but I don’t notice corresponding alarmism in the business world.

    Rufus T. Firefly:

    Interesting chart. Albuquerque is tied with Jacksonville at 93% by this metric, which I find somewhat surprising. There are a lot of closed storefronts in the UNM area where I live. Some have reopened as marijuana dispensaries, which is one of the few bright spots in the recovery, which I don’t see as particularly good news.

    The homeless situation keeps getting worse. Fencing is going up all over the place to keep the homeless at bay. Security in stores is high and shoplifters can be arrested.

    However, Abq was never that prosperous, so it has not fallen from a great height like San Francisco.

    There is so much to worry about these days that I suspect the business world isn’t getting ahead of itself to worry about these seismic changes in cities.

  34. As to the video, you always know someone’s going to have a bad day when Dies Irae comes on.

  35. Rufus T. Firefly:

    The only way I can understand the current top-down push to electricity for everything is, as you say, as a chokepoint for control.

    However, the math doesn’t work at so many levels I don’t believe they can finish the job.

  36. @Neo:

    Check out Spelbound, Zurcorah and AcroArmy.

    For a beautiful change, try Mayyas.

  37. R.T.F. :

    How often do you pay with cash for gasoline/diesel? Why can’t a King Jay get his minions in Olympia (WA state legislature) to require or control (nudge, nudge, encourage altruism and virtue) the purchase of fuel digitally for the greater good, or for whatever. All the pumps are connected to the web/cloud by now.

    GPS tracking modules on all vehicles for your own good or for taxation or cough, cough, control of movement. For Gaia!

  38. desantis has doubled up on voter id, narrowed mail ballot availability so he doesn’t really believe that [Trump lost in 2020]

    This might be seen as a word game, but I can absolutely see DeSantis believing that Trump lost in 2020 because he was not allowed to win – because of the social and regular media, voting, ballot, and court shenanigans that took place before during, and after election day.

    I hold that opinion myself. Yes, Trump lost, but it wasn’t by any stretch a clean fight.

  39. Lee:

    As far as i can tell, that appears to be a study of people who actually had myocarditis, which is a tiny percentage of people who received the vaccine (or any vaccine). Having COVID itself results in a higher incidence of myocarditis, by the way.

    It’s a different population than people who simply have temporary elevations in certain enzymes tested.

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