Erdogan again
In no surprise at all, Erdogan has won the runoff election in Turkey. This extends his rule for five more years.
Turkey is very different from the US, but boy does this sound familiar:
“The entire nation of 85 million won,” he told cheering crowds outside his enormous palace on the edge of Ankara.
But his call for unity sounded hollow as he ridiculed his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu – and took aim at a jailed Kurdish leader and the LGBT community.
The opposition leader denounced “the most unfair election in recent years”.
Mr Kilicdaroglu said the president’s political party had mobilised all the means of the state against him and he did not explicitly admit defeat.
International observers said on Monday that, as with the first round on 14 May, media bias and limits to freedom of expression had “created an unlevel playing field, and contributed to an unjustified advantage” for Mr Erdogan.
Posing as a unifier while being quite the opposite, the triumph of rhetoric over reality? Check.
Opposition claims unfair election? Check.
The media putting not just its thumb but its entire body on the scale, contributing to the “rigging” of the information prior to the election, in order to favor one candidate? Check.
And the results were fairly evenly split – it seems he’s won with about 52% of the vote. A close vote result is similar to the US, as well.
In addition, Turkey is experiencing rampant inflation of a degree that’s greater than ours; the article says the increase is close to 44% a year.
Erdogan is 69, which starts sounding young to me. He was the Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003-2014 and has been Turkey’s president ever since then:
Since a failed coup in 2016, Mr Erdogan has abolished the post of prime minister and amassed extensive powers, which his opponent had pledged to roll back.
Once power becomes entrenched, it’s extremely difficult to dislodge. As Erdogan himself famously said in the 1990s when he was the mayor of Istanbul: “Democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off” (depends on the translation; sometimes it’s not “tram” but “train” or “streetcar”). I have long thought that to be one of the most clever and succinct summations ever uttered of how “democracy” can be used as a vehicle for tyranny.
Pulling out all the stops, he couldn’t do better than 52% of the vote and he’s dependent on coalition partners for a legislative majority. Turkey has a vigorous civil society. Have a gander at the legislation suppressing dissent in Ireland (which passed the legislature by a margin of 7-1) if you want to see what’s up in a society with a moribund civic culture.
The Democrats have stepped off the train and are now tearing up the tracks.
There is still some strong anti-Erdogan sentiment in Istanbul. How long he can go on with the economy in miserable condition remains to be seen. His end may be violent.
Opinions matter, and the press still forms them, be it Turkey or wherever. See especially paragraph 5 for a German point of view
http://schnitzelrepublic.blogspot.com/2023/05/how-germans-view-this-2024-us-election.html
The funny thing is that this has happened repeatedly in Turkey’s history. Each time before Erdogan, though, the Turkish military stepped in, restored order, and then backed off to allow free elections.
Somehow, Erdogan bypassed that.
I’d have to say he’s approaching Generalissimo Franco-like levels of political power –time for an SNL skit, right?
thats what ergonokon, 1 and 2, were for, the first involved the grey wolves, as grave a threat as the oathkeepers sarc, then gulen’s followers, ironically whose madrassas allowed him to take power, erdogan is an avowed nationalist and sunni islamist, although he has allied with marxist venezuela, and has been a conduit for shia iran, his ambitions are vast not only in syria next door but
along side Hamas in Gaza, the Taliban in Afghanistan also in North Africa,
not to mention his influence in countries like germany and france that have sizable expat population,
its worth noting that today is the anniversary of the fall of constantinople, that ended the byzantine empire and much of christian influence in the levant,
As Erdogan himself famously said in the 1990s when he was the mayor of Istanbul: “Democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off” (depends on the translation; sometimes it’s not “tram” but “train” or “streetcar”). I have long thought that to be one of the most clever and succinct summations ever uttered of how “democracy” can be used as a vehicle for tyranny.
Reminds me a little of a quote from Double Indemnity. Maybe Erdogan is a fan of the film.
Murder’s never perfect. Always comes apart sooner or later, and when two people are involved it’s usually sooner.
– – –
They may think it’s twice as safe because there’s two of them,
but it isn’t twice as safe. It’s ten times twice as dangerous. They’ve committed a *murder*! And it’s not like taking a trolley ride together where they can get off at different stops. They’re stuck with each other and they got to ride all the way to the end of the line and it’s a one-way trip and the last stop is the cemetery.
I suspect that concept is related to a Ben Franklin quote:
Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.
In the Erdogan quote, it’s everyone who is effectively dead, except for the tyrant getting off the trolley at the end.
Unfortunately this is far too true. I mean they’ve literally convinced a not insignificant portion of the population that the president actually suggested people should drink or inject bleach. (It should have been obvious to anybody it wasn’t true.) Yet they’ve repeated it so much some people actually believe it. (Let me guess, they’ve probably never heard the phrase “Disinfect a wound.”)
“Somehow, Erdogan bypassed that.”
The EU, by dangling the possibility of Turkey becoming a member, greatly helped Erdogan neutralize the Turkish military’s responsibility, as established by Ataturk, to “protect” (as it were) Turkey from Islamic recidivism and—in this case—Erdogan’s consolidation of power.
The military did NOT intervene to remove the increasingly Islamicist and dictatorial—yes, the two are related—Erdogan for fear that doing so would jeopardize the possibility of Turkey joining the EU.
Didn’t intervene, that is, until it was too late.
Needless to say, the EU, despite its encouragement AND equivocation, never had any intention of admitting Turkey (mostly due to France, more specifically, Chirac)…but Erdogan played the POSSIBILITY like a charm.
Erdogan sees himself as the next Sultan of the Ottoman Empire. It’ll be an empire but of low round furniture.
I have the feeling the accuracy of the vote totals are a lot more legitimate in Turkey than the US. Sure, the Erdogan faction likely coerced a lot of people to vote for him, but at least they were real votes cast in his name as opposed to whatever fabrication goes on here.
He can do a lot of damage, to be sure, to his own country and to others.
He already has.
In fact, he’s been challenging “Biden” for several years now in a “game” of “Can You Top This”?
“Biden”, always the competitor (in Chief), will no doubt pick up the gauntlet….
“Game Over For Turkey As Net Reserves Turn Negative, Morgan Stanley Sees Lira Collapsing”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/game-over-turkey-net-reserves-turn-negative-morgan-stanley-sees-lira-collapsing
(Caveat: The Turkish Lira has been “collapsing” for years….)
What price, “Victory”?
+ Bonus:
“Total Farce: Real Spending Under Debt Ceiling Deal Actually Goes Up Next Year”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/total-farce-real-spending-under-debt-ceiling-deal-actually-goes-next-year
(Though as far as I can understand it, the “deal” has not yet been signed, sealed, delivered, etc…)
Regarding the “deal”….
“ABOUT THE DEBT CEILING DEAL”—
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/05/about-the-debt-ceiling-deal.php
The BBC really thinks being pro LGBT (other letters added continuously) is a winning election strategy in Turkey?
I think we have one of the million-lira notes, from before the last lira collapse. As a side note, I actually saw Erdogan in person, when he was mayor of Istanbul. He was in our restaurant, with several aides, and his wife wearing a hijab. They left, with the mayor in the lead and women behind. Our Turkish friend was disdainful, and talked of “religious fanatics” who wanted Turkey to be like .. jerking his head to the east, towards Iran.
On a different matter, there was a good special on the Bee Gees on CNN last night. Some of their early Australian work was new to me. I know you are a big fan.
More sanguinity WRT the “deal”…
“Kevin McCarthy’s debt-ceiling deal is a step in the right direction”—
https://nypost.com/2023/05/29/kevin-mccarthys-debt-ceiling-deal-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction/
The real problem for Turkey is whether the US will attempt another coup d’état. In as much as Turkey seems to be joining Syria, Iraq, and Iran in solving the US occupation problem another coup seems in order.
The democratic/dictatorial duality.
on another front
https://www.frontpagemag.com/three-cheers-for-tommy-robinson-2/
Neo
Islamists, Communists, and Fascists never share or voluntarily give up power. If they cannot get elected in a fair election they try to join the government as part of a coalition or so called “Popular Front” and they eventually seize control (first by taking control over the police, Interior Ministry, and security services). This is what happened in Czechoslovakia in February, 1948 and we have seen it time and time again; Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Recep Tayyip Erodgan in Turkey.
Sennacherib
“Erdogan sees himself as the next Sultan of the Ottoman Empire. It’ll be an empire but of low round furniture.”
What’s the deal with the Ottoman Empire? An empire based on putting your feet up on a piece of furniture?
Jerry Seinfeld
i researched the gulen/erdogan alliance around the time, that they were making a big deal with general flynn, the latter enabled the former, and much like the other associates of big brother in 1984, they ended up in the dark or worse,
erdogan came out of an anticommunist youth league, yet he makes alliances with western leftists, and islamists like hamas,
What’s the Greek reaction to the election result? In view of the saber-rattling going on around some of the Aegean islands, that would interest me.
Secular Turks don’t like the Greeks, and the feeling is reciprocated.
Not just secular.
And the sentiment is usually generously reciprocated.
With interest.
As I’ve probably mentioned before, being a member of a Greek Orthodox parish, I’m very well informed about the Greek man-in-the-street view of Turkey and Turks in general. But I mean, what is the reaction to this current election result in particular? If it has anything distinctive about it, it could be interesting to know, since the Greeks are the nearest European neighbors who have to consider its consequences, if any.
Essentially, the Greeks are in a low-burn conflict with Erdogan (i.e., not Turkey, per se).
Sometimes it’ll flare up and you’ll hear about it.
But since both are NATO partners (even if Turkey is wonky, and purposely so) it’s a tricky—and sensitive—business.
Erdogan will subvert things when he feels he needs to; will prick, will antagonize, will make threatening declarations (e.g., WRT the Greek islands in the Aegean, just a stone’s throw off the coast of western Turkey). All part of the act.
But as in former-USSR military doctrine, there is ALWAYS the chance that THEATER (threats, maneuvers, belligerence, etc.) will convert quickly to ATTACK.
While this is unlikely in Erdogan’s case, it’s always a card he can play if he believes he can get away with it—or, worse, if he believes that he MUST do it to survive—once again, he (Erdogan); not Turkey…but the L’etat c’est moi, n’est-ce pas?…
Similarly, Greek Cyprus is very nervous…even if Turkish Cyprus—which seems to have reached a modus vivendi with the former—would much prefer that Erdogan “cool it” with the belligerence…but why should Erdogan necessarily listen to them?…
(It’s the same, BTW, vis-a-vis Israel, which for some reason believes that Erdogan has somehow “reformed”. No shortage of “dreamers” in Israel, either… though one COULD ask, “What alternative do they really have except to play this game of “make believe” very cautiously?)
But what’s his destination? Making Turkey into Iran or Isis? Restoring the Caliphate or the Ottoman Empire? Maybe the destination was permanent power for himself?
The tram comment is strange. We know what it means to the Western press. I’d be interested in knowing the context and how Turks reacted to it, and in reconstructing just what it might have meant to Erdogan himself.
Edrogan has been quite clear on wishing to restore Turkish hegemony in the Muslim world. The Ottomans ruled for many centuries.