Sort-of predictions for election 2024
Here are some predictions of mine, even though I usually try not to make political predictions. But I’ll go out a step or two on a limb and say that:
(1) Trump and DeSantis will not run on a ticket together, even though a lot of people would like it if they did.
(2) Robert Kennedy Jr. will not be the Democrat nominee. He’s considered a loose cannon by the Democrat establishment and the more people hear him the more they will be exposed to his wackier views, of which he has many. Nor is he the least bit conservative, although some of his somewhat more mainstream views, particularly on COVID, are shared by a lot of people on the right as well as some on the left. I also believe his voice problems are a drawback, although not as important a drawback as the rest.
(3) Nor will Michelle Obama be the nominee on the Democrat side. She doesn’t want the job.
(4) I continue to think Biden will be the nominee. The only way he’d be withdrawing would be if he experienced a catastrophic decline in health. Many people predicted he’d be replaced by now as president, but I never thought so – for the simple reason that he’s incredibly useful to the Democrat Party. He will do or say virtually anything the left requires, and he does it while cloaking himself in the aura of his stint as Obama’s VP, as well as his lengthy history in the Senate and his goofy fake-genial persona. Sure, he’s an old white guy, but he says and does the correct woke things and he chose Kamala as his VP, and although she’s been a bitter disappointment to the left in terms of her own popularity as a possible successor, she still checks the right boxes.
(5) The Republican nominee? I make no predictions. Trump is way in the lead, but it’s so early that most people aren’t really aware of much about DeSantis, not from their own perceptions anyway. I do think that the eventual nominee has a tough tough task ahead of him to overcome the built-in obstacles to victory in the presidential race.
I’m totally done with Trump.
I want Vivek, but I would accept Ron. If Don was the nominee, I might not even vote.
A DeSantis-Vivek ticket would be a winner. The conventional wisdom is to pick a VP for a state you need. Vivek is from Ohio. That’s always a must win state.
I can’t wait to see Vivek again in June.
Thanks for the tongue-in-cheek predictions 1-3.
Trump and DeSantis would not team up unless Trump moved out of Florida. That’s because electoral college voters cannot vote for both P and VP from their state. That is, if Trump and DeSantis ran as P and VP, the Florida electors could only vote for one, likely of course, Trump for P, and in a close election Trump might get stuck with a Democrat VP. See, https://www.history.com/news/can-the-president-and-vice-president-be-from-the-same-state#
RFK, Jr. could be great at exposing faults of Dems, and therefore convincing some to vote Repub.
Michelle Obama would rather sell questionable drinks to our school age kids. See, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-17/michelle-obama-s-plezi-nutrition-drink-may-not-qualify-as-healthy-for-kids#xj4y7vzkg.
Cornhead on May 26, 2023 at 2:59 pm said:
“I’m totally done with Trump.”
I feel your frustration, Dave. Trump’s criticisms of DeSantis are crazy.
One can only hope, very fervently indeed, that prediction #3 is correct, as the loathsome wife of B.O. would win easily (should she choose to run) against any opponent and would, no doubt, prove to be even more disastrous and even more destructive than the senile buffoon currently installed as puppet (with B.O. as puppet-master?) Perhaps she is truly more drawn to making massive amounts of money, in various dubious ways, and to enjoying la dolce vita than to becoming the first female POTUS.
On Mooch, she doesn’t want the job work but bet she loved the lifestyle. And before Sundowner thought she was way to lazy. But now that it is know there is no work involved not so sure she can’t be talked into it. And she will get a bully pulpit to push her version of Cultural Marxism
Who says that Biden hasn’t already suffered a “catastrophic decline” in his cognitive health?
Like Cornhead I’m done with Trump. The childish and dishonest ads he’s been running here in Michigan did it for me. I will however hold my nose and vote for him if he wins the nomination.
Trump needs a VP who won’t stab him in the back, which rules out DeSantis and Haley.
The fact that DeSantis agrees with most of Trump’s policies means nothing without Trump’s courage and ability to get things done in spite of vicious, often illegal, and never-ending opposition from the uniparty establishment. How many presidents other than Trump would have been able to build a border wall, negotiate new trade deals with Canada and Mexico, negotiate a new trade deal with Communist China, reduce taxes on American businesses, reduce regulations on American businesses, back out of the Paris climate agreement, become energy dominant in the world, create an historically great American economy, rebuild America’s military, create the United States Space Force, stare down North Korean missile testing, get rid of Obama’s nuclear weapons deal with Iran, recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, negotiate a trade deal between Israel and its Arab neighbors, avoid getting America involved in any new wars, restore quality medical care for veterans at the VA, eliminate the Obama requirement that Americans buy health insurance, give Americans with terminal illnesses the right to try experimental treatments, and appoint new Supreme Court members willing to acknowledge that the Constitution is silent on abortion?
Doesn’t matter who the nominee is, because Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not flippable, since the Left controls how their ballots are counted. There is not 270 Electoral College votes for any Republican. It will not matter who the Dem is or who the R is.
Who the Republican runner-up is will matter a lot to the factions that run Washington DC but it will not matter a whit to us voters. I recommend we not get caught up in their drama, and fix things in the states we control so they cannot be turned blue by all the people fleeing the blue states who will bring their voting preferences with them.
I recommend we fix our school boards, our city/county/state elections and governments, which is a far better use of our time and far more likely to deliver good results.
Even if there is a Republican President what then? If it’s Trump the Uniparty and Deep State will continue to sabotage him. If it’s anyone else, they’ll be an outsider like Trump treated the same way, or an insider who gets coopted or at best slows things down a little.
Frederick is batting 1000 today.
This, and what you said on the corporation post. Hard to argue with what you’ve stated, though I wish I could. It’s very depressing. Back to my vodka.
coastal-
I think you make a clear and good case for judging Trump as one of our best presidents ever,BUT…
He has pissed too many voters off since 2020. We need a majority of the Independent vote to win the presidency, and he will not get that. He has pissed me off also, with his anti-DeSantis commercials airing yesterday. Trump is the captain who will go down with his ship, sinking it with his own hand. Why couldn’t he heed Reagan’s advice? His ego will kill him and us.
The Democrat DAs are doing a great job, like a pack of hornets, in stressing Trump out emotionally and financially.
We cannot afford to re-elect Trump. He will lose big-time. I am for DeSanctis and have contributed.
RFK,Jr is an interesting guy. He’s lost a recurrent laryngeal nerve, judging by his voice, or he’s had a hemi-laryngectomy, so his speech is hoarse and he likely cannot yell. But his anti-vaccine delusions turn out to be true if the “vaccine” is the phony COVID m-RNA that programs production of the endothelial-loving Spike protein with its obvious cardiovascular injury effects that are now widely reported among young adults, and he is no fool on many of his non-vaccine positions. m-RNA jabs for 5 year-olds? Insanity by Biden and Pfizer. RFK,Jr is rather refreshing for a Democrat, in fact!
I think it’s pretty clear that presidential elections don’t matter anymore.
1. I agree entirely
2. I agree entirely
3. I agree entirely
4. Up until the last two months or so, I would have been inclined to agree (although with some doubt). Now, however, I’m inclined to disagree (but with plenty of doubt). It is becoming more and more implausible to see how Slo Joe could manage an active re-election campaign, even within the carefully crafted cocoon created for him. More importantly, multiple polls have now confirmed a significant majority of voters think he is too old and does not have the cognitive faculties to be president. I don’t see how, even with huge MSM deference, Democrats can overcome this issue. They seem to be relying on the assumption that Trump will be the GOP nominee and thus they can campaign entirely on TDS. That might work, but man it’s a gamble.
If DeSantis (or any of the other contenders) start to eclipse Trump in the polls, I could see Slo Joe being gently edged out, most likely with Newsom emerging as the de facto replacement. Indeed, I think Newsom, Cooper and others are running ‘shadow campaigns’ already.
5. I don’t know either. Trump almost certainly would lose to any Democrat except Slo Joe (and he might lose to him too, but I think he at least has a shot and victory). DeSantis could potentially beat most Democrats. But yes, many obstacles for whomever the GOP nominates
@physicsguy:Back to my vodka.
Don’t go back to your vodka. Work in your garden, volunteer in your community, start a small business, read, pray, whatever helps the people around you will also help you.
Did Jesus ever say “Form ye political action committees, that thy consuls might wear robes of red and not of blue, and that the Senate may look with favor upon thy tribunes”?
There is no cure for a society with the equivalent of Stage 4 Cancer.
What Frederick wrote at 5:09 p.m.
(1) DeSantis and Trump won’t be on the same ticket- I agree.
(2) RFK Jr. won’t be the dem nominee- I agree
(3) Michelle Obama won’t be the dem nominee- I agree
(4) Biden will be the dem nominee- I disagree.
(5) DeSantis will be the Republican nominee
On (4)- Newsom will be the dem nominee. Biden is an animated corpse, and Newsom will change his mind and challenge Biden. He will announce by Labor Day.
well he said be soberminded, which doesn’t mean not to drink but to be aware of your circumstances
Frederick said, “Doesn’t matter who the nominee is, because Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not flippable, since the Left controls how their ballots are counted.”
But there is NO vote fraud? Huh?
I have seen a couple comments here on “many obstacles” for whomever the GOP nominates for president.
Well, let’s see a list of these many obstacles. I trust you do not mean vote fraud as an “obstacle”. Or do you?
Currently, Trump and DeSantis *can’t* be on a ticket together, since the POTUS and VPOTUS candidates can’t hail from the same state, and they are both currently Floridians. Since DeSantis is *governor* of Florida, that would mean Trump would have to move. I don’t see him doing that for anyone.
If Trump is the nominee, I’ll vote for him, more in the Spirit of 2016 (there can’t be a Democratic landslide) than in the Spirit of 2020 (Trump did a great job and deserves another term). But it’s less and less likely that I’ll vote for him in the primary. That’s also in the Spirit of 2016. I didn’t vote in that year’s primary because I couldn’t vote for Trump and couldn’t vote for anybody else.
Trump turned out to be a rather good president. I thought he’d grow and change and mature, but he hasn’t been able to let go of 2020 and buckle down. I also thought I might vote for Kennedy in the Democrat primary, but that’s also less likely. So it’s DeSantis or one of the other Republicans.
Michelle Obama isn’t going to run. She doesn’t like politics and she has all she wants. Oprah won’t run either. Newsom is the Sphinx. Just what he’s thinking nobody knows.
DeSantis is an elitist politician with a cringeworthy fake laugh who is uncomfortable around people. Look no further than the fact that, beyond the Governor’s inner circle, no voters were invited to the announcement of his candidacy for the presidency.
Trump—a populist who fights for and is loved by regular, everyday Americans—won in 2016 despite widespread pre-election shenanigans by the Deep State, Big Media, the DNC, and the GOP.
In 2020, Trump came damn close to winning again despite massive pre-election shenanigans by the Deep State, Big Media, Big Tech, the DNC, the GOP, and state government election officials across the nation.
Since 2020, the USA has gone to hell in half a dozen different ways, Twitter has become neutered as an effective machine for Democrats seeking office, and a populist Democrat named Bobby Kennedy—who may well go third party—has emerged on the scene to slam elitist Democrats and Republicans every day of the week.
Go Trump.
American Greatness [dot com]
— The Formidable Candidacy of Joe Biden —
Who can weaken the identity politics spell that makes an otherwise weak incumbent into a truly formidable contender for reelection?
https://amgreatness.com/2023/05/25/the-formidable-candidacy-of-joe-biden/
It’s an oversimplification, it skates past the ballot security issue(s), but I thought nonetheless that I’d add it to the discussion. Discuss or pass, as you see fit.
@MJR: This is what I was talking about on the “woke corporations” thread. “Wokeness” is not bottom-up from marginalized groups; it is top-down from the moneyed elites, the cultural elites, and their clients vs the middle class.
If you are white, you must admit your “privilege,” swear allegiance to DEI, to green energy, to “sustainability,” and appear to repudiate “toxic masculinity.” If you do all this, you graduate into the inner sanctum; you get to join the ESG team at Blackrock, the wealthiest holding company in the world, with $10 trillion under management. Marx thought that money would become the singular measure of all things in the capitalist age; in fact, victimhood has become the singular measure. If you have it (or can feign it, as Blackrock does), then you get the money. Welcome to the identity politics economy, where your victimhood points in the spiritual economy entitle you to wealth in the monied economy.
Frederick (9:37 pm) writes, “[wokeness] is top-down from the moneyed elites, the cultural elites, and their clients vs the middle class.”
Definitely. And when it is as immovably entrenched as it now is, and when it is (therefore) coming at you from all directions, both consciously (sometimes like a sledgehammer) and unconsciously (it can also be subtle), it is little wonder that even those who really do believe that they are non-political are swayed by its siren call. It’s very political, even when the (erstwhile) non-political among us don’t realize that.
And thanks for highlighting that italicized excerpt . . .
Snow on Pine: “Who says that Biden hasn’t already suffered a “catastrophic decline” in his cognitive health?”
Depends on how cognitive he was to begin with.
https://twitter.com/TheNatPulse/status/1662214464392040450?cxt=HHwWhMDUqfTPr5EuAAAA
“Many people predicted he’d be replaced by now as president, but I never thought so – for the simple reason that he’s incredibly useful to the Democrat Party. He will do or say virtually anything the left requires…”
I wonder what will happen if he decides that he is not going to be “bossed around” anymore? Demented people can get uppity ideas.
Regarding #1 – Trump will never accept a running mate who might distract attention away from himself.
well we know pence sabotaged trump in at least a dozen key ways from the beginning, his memoir is that of a viper, in the midst,
If Newsom is the Democratic candidate, the attack ads will write themselves.
And it won’t make any difference.
See Frederick, above: “Doesn’t matter who the nominee is, because Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not flippable, since the Left controls how their ballots are counted. There is not 270 Electoral College votes for any Republican. It will not matter who the Dem is or who the R is.”
Here is my uninformed, ignorant prediction: Robert Kennedy Jr. will be the demokrat nominee.
True, the demokrat party powers- that- be do not want him, but as soon as they learn that he has a better chance than joke bidet to prevail against the republican nominee, they will go with him; better him than any dumbpublican as far as the demonkrats are concerned.
The dem powers want joke bidet to be their nominee but if he engages in any debate with robert kennedy, jr. – and I think bidet will have no choice but to debate RKJ – bidet’s senility will become very apparent to all, and the dems will be forced to bite their their lips and support RKJ.
Of course, if the voting procedures – which include all the “irregularities” that WILL occur are in play – then it makes no difference who the dems nominate; he/she/it will win. They can nominate the corpse of FDR and he will win the general elections. (OK, maybe not a real corpse; but a “near-corpse like, say, Fetterman or perhaps somebody with the intellectual capacity of a dead person; Kamala Harris would fit into this slot nicely).
Will be interesting to see what DeSantis says about the climate change hoax (formerly called global warming, but which had to be “re-titled” because there has been no warming in the last 20 years or so) , US energy independence, NATO sucking off the US taxpayer and the Ukraine mess, etc.
AS for a Trump -DeSantis ticket, well, the chance of this is less than winning the powerball lottery.
Anyway, regardless of who the dumbpublicans nominee for president is, who will be the republican VP nominee???
Biden was the impeachment / assassination insurance for Obama, and Harris was picked to play the same role for Biden. But that has backfired on the Donks, and now they dare not try to get rid of Biden!
So my prediction is they will have to stick with Biden in 2024, and use the election to get rid of Harris. But that assumes Biden functions that long! If he becomes incapacitated or goes out feet first, they will have to engineer a sympathy victory, which they might pull off.
There is no choice on the R side. Trump is the candidate with the chutzpah and the battle scars to take on the Deep State! He has the moral authority, nay duty, to drain the swamp.
No, I strongly disagree that we need to “move on” from the steal of 2020. The stealing of the last election, the attempted coup against the Trump Presidency, the corrupt stench of a legal system that holds political prisoners, and the now obvious proof of a Biden crime syndicate are all existential issues that we must fight to correct. If we look away, by the time we ever try to look back, our great country will be gone.
Folks, this is “the hill”, right here! Fight!
Where were they at when Trump issued his policy EOs, to turn them into laws for OUR sake? Or, for the years before that, when they gave lip service to issues like energy independence and border security?
What I am seeking by supporting Trump, is the following:
> Putting the only President in my lifetime who actually demonstrated respect for federalism when under pressure (in 2020) in place, with other strong governors – including DeSantis – in place to tag-team with him to move authority out of occupied DC.
> Getting the American people to actually value their rights – and the rights of their neighbors – by supporting a President who is willing to “say the quiet part out loud” (STQPOL) then ACT to secure our rights. even when both that President and said people might get called names for doing so.
> Sending the same message to the Left that Reagan sent the USSR: we will do whatever it takes, so that Leftist tyranny will not prevail … even if it means electing an Ashchol to do so.
All that being said, if DeSantis is the nominee I will vote for him. But will he, as a career politician, continue to STQPOL and force the issues over the top of the Left, once he has to “work with” a GOP Congressional contingent prone to NOT forcing the issues and letting the Left run rings sround them?
Trump isn’t perfect in that regard, but I can count on him more to do so than a career politician.
Those who are now throwing Trump under the bus need to understand that DeSantis is building upon Trump’s confrontational precedent. Simplistically undermine Trump , and you will make it more likely that the Nice People™? of the GOP conslutant class can pressure Ron to prioritize “nice” over our rights, as they did with the Bushes and others (remember Scott Walker re: immigration?).
And as for Trump’s attacks on DeSantis … remember Trump’s attacks on Ted Cruz? It’s politics – nothing more, nothing less.
Though I will say that the Trump PAC trashing DeSantis for backing the 23% sales tax – aka the Fair Tax, which also eliminates all income and payroll taxes at the Federal level – is presented out-of-context and inaccurate if not dishonest on the part of the.PAC.
I assert that any effort to predict things at this early a date is historically pointless.
Who remembers 1988 front runner Gary Hart?
1992’s Bob Kerrey (No relation to 2004’s John Kerry)?
96’s Pat Buchanan?
2004’s Howard Dean?
2008’s Mike Huckabee?
There have been so many people who were clearly “front runners” until the actual early primaries, when someone fades utterly — or, alternately, they flame out early because of some revealed peccadillo.
}}} Though I will say that the Trump PAC trashing DeSantis for backing the 23% sales tax – aka the Fair Tax, which also eliminates all income and payroll taxes at the Federal level – is presented out-of-context and inaccurate if not dishonest on the part of the.PAC.
I will note:
I like the *idea* of the “Fair Tax”.
The problem is, it’s always sold without one key ingredient: A complete and total repeal of the 16th Amendment, which enables the income tax in the first place.
Short of this, there is a major problem with the “Fair Tax”: While it “cancels the laws on income tax, abolishes the IRS, yada yada yada”, it does nothing to prevent the Income Tax from being REINSTATED.
Unless the actual Amendment to the Constitution is reversed by proper amendatory means, they CAN RE-INSTITUTE IT.
And please, please, PLEASE, don’t be so ridiculously stupid as to say “They won’t do that!”. Not after the way they passed ObamaCare against widespread public rejection of it.
Oh, they’ll have some “temporary emergency financial issue” that “requires we reinstitute it ‘just for the duration of the fiscal emergency!!'”… which then is followed by a non-ending “fiscal emergency” in which we have a 23% sales tax AND AN INCOME TAX.
If Congress has the power to do something they want to do, they WILL DO IT. Taxing you more to put more money in their pockets? You really imagine they don’t want to do this? EVER?
So… No: USE YOUR BRAIN.
Only accept the “Fair Tax” if it is adopted as part and parcel of a process which requires the repeal of the 16th Amendment before it is put into place.
Do NOT leave Congress the option to have both.
Those bastards WILL do it to you, mark my words.
Only accept the “Fair Tax” if it is adopted as part and parcel of a process which requires the repeal of the 16th Amendment before it is put into place
From https://fairtax.org/faq
OBH, while he wasn’t a front-runner, Scott Walker’s rise and fall also aligns with that of the front runners you list.
Yet a lot of people today look at Ron DeSantis as the same kind of “action hero” as I and others perceived Walker to be in 2016 … both took resolute actions, as governors, to push back against the wannabe lords of the Church of Woke. But once he got on the national stage, Walker floundered on the immigration issue and fell into irrelevance.
Based on the history of Scott Walker, while I see the potential of Ron DeSantis, it is still too early to tell, as well.
If Biden is somehow out, would Congress approve appointment of Newsome as VP? Probably yes. He would be defacto President and run as the incumbent in 2024.
Trump will destroy himself by continuing to childishly attack DeSantis. He has no other path against him that I can see. Trump will wind up with only the Woke Media who see him as the most beatable. He will be unable to resist trying to make them love him.
Reading the DeSantis campaign book totally convinced me that he is the real thing.
Something new is the number of actual independents. Anti-trans parents and Kennedy supporters will add to that number. Kennedy people will not go back to the Pandemic Hall Monitor Party.
DeSantis with Musk, Carlson, etc. behind him can create an entirely new GOP that can actually defund the Swamp, pass Term Limits, and enact the Fair Tax.
What is the worst possible outcome: Biden stays in, DeSantis wins in the Primaries, and Trump runs on a Bull Moose ticket re-electing Biden.
Trump needs an exit ramp. I hope one can manifest. He did a lot, he needs to be appreciated and retired.