Those Trump vs. DeSantis polls
I’m puzzled as to why anyone would pay attention to polls about Trump versus DeSantis at this point.
Trump is obviously going to be ahead of DeSantis at the moment. That may continue indefinitely and Trump may win the 2024 GOP nomination. But that situation may change, perhaps dramatically – and I’m not just saying that for the obvious reason that the 2024 primaries are a long way away. I’m saying it because DeSantis hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet, and I would wager that a huge number of potential GOP primary voters are mostly unfamiliar with him. And there has not yet been a face-to-face encounter between the two men such as happens in the debates, which should be telling.
I can guarantee one thing, though: if DeSantis does run, or even if he doesn’t, there will be plenty of Democrat crossover votes for Trump in the primaries in states where it’s permitted. And it won’t be because those people plan to vote for him in the general; it will be because they think he’s easily beatable. That’s sometimes a risky bet, but I think it’s one they’ll make.
I’ve written before about DeSantis’ qualifications. On paper I think he is the most qualified GOP Presidential candidate in decades; Ivy league education, honorable military service including overseas deployment, attorney, congressman, Governor of the 3rd largest state in the U.S., relatively young, photogenic family…
I also like a lot of what he has done in Florida and I think his team has done a very good job managing PR and communications in a very hostile press environment.
I worry about two things:
1. He can come across as a bully.
2. He’s not always a great communicator. If you showed me Trump on the campaign trail, or Biden, or Vivek Ramaswami, or Nikki Haley… and asked “who would I want to have a beer with” I’d choose DeSantis last. I have no idea if that’s valid; he may be a great, salt of the earth, friendly, open guy. But when I see him on my TV he doesn’t seem friendly or fun.
I don’t personally care about either of those two things when voting for a politician, but I think they are important to a lot of people.
1. He can come across as a bully.
2. He’s not always been a great communicator.
In my opinion those have always been Trump’s greatest weaknesses.
naw desantis is a fine communicator, trump is sometimes unnecessarily blunt, sometimes thats whats required, now ted cruz (I voted for him in the primary) isn’t always the most personable,
Horse race polls while the horses are still in the barn.
I voted for Trump twice and would again, in the General. But my choice is DeSantis. My fear is that if DeSantis wins the nomination, Trump and the diehard Trumpers will stay home, giving it to the Dem, who may be Newsom.
Republicans refuse to stick together. They need to be a Roman legion, the tight military configuration that conquered the Italian peninsula, France (then Gaul), and reached northern England. I am tired of putting up with GOP egotists who put themselves before Party. Apparently Trump never heard Reagan’s view on the subject:”Never speak ill of ANY Republican”.
I will not vote for Trump again.
I am encouraged by RFK Jr’s entry into the Dem presidential nomination process. He seems remarkably sensible, has learned a lot in his 69 years, not at all like the current Dem. crazies. He is surely a good antidote to Newsom.
well they operate single file for the dems
I promise to not hold his Ivy League education against him.
Cicero
Trump is at heart not a member of any poltical party but is an oppoprftunist and egotist who if he does not get the nomination will look to burn the party down. He is the best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party.
an egotist, more than romney more than mccain (he’s dead now, but his stench still hangs like marley’s ghost) at every step, they ratified the surrender of the republic, grahams another turtle,
Larry Elder has thrown his hat into the ring. That is a great addition to the race! An outstanding communicator with decades of experience speaking 3 hours a day, 5 days a week on the issues.
“Republicans refuse to stick together.”
“I will not vote for Trump again.”
Trump is “an opportunist and egotist who if he does not get the nomination will look to burn the party down….”
If the latter, then because the R Party betray’s it’s base. (A man not from professional oil ranks, one has no record to judge him on.) The Dems do, deliberately. And routinely. And R’s nominees often do the same to some degree.
It’s true that Trump is a narcissist. Many, if not most, ambitious leaders are.
The Rs rarely nominate narcissists like McCain. Dems rarely don’t — Mondale in 1984, possibly — and Dukakis in ’88, certainly, is the exception.
clinton’s not a narcissist, obama, get real,
Trump is “an opportunist and egotist…” – TJ
And DeSantis is an ambitious opportunist, IMO.
Education- Harvard; check.
Military- Navy JAG; check.
Public Service- House, 6 years; check.
Governor, 1 term; check.
President; ?
There is something just a little formulaic about DeSantis. Something that has been commented on by people that know him is a certain aloofness which comes across as inauthentic. I wonder if the ambition is coming from DeSantis or his wife.
Here is a DeSantis interview after he’d been elected to the House. If someone is going to vote for him, it’s your obligation to listen to the whole hour. It’s cued up to a comment he made about donors, but listening to the whole thing, I got the sense of someone lacking experience.
My uneasiness about DeSantis isn’t about donors early in his career, but donors he’s taking money from this cycle. What is his position on trade?
Of all the issues Trump tackled while president, the most critical was trade, IMO. Next was judges. We need healthy business in all sectors to thrive as a country. The investors are happy to see the manufacturing segment in cheap labor countries; global enterprises without connection to a country; global regulations.
These policies have led to poverty pockets around the country.
I’m more impressed with Glen Youngkin. He may be just as bad on trade as DeSantis. I don’t know. He’s also apparently not interested in being President, which shows a sensible level of maturity.
As to the Disney kerfuffle, the Republicans (and DeSantis) got snookered by the left/Disney. It does make you wonder if they/he is up to the challenge.
DeSantis would be better served to finish his term as governor and look to 2028. I’m not sure a Republican can win in 2024. The country may be ready for collapse and be willing to give conservative leadership a try again by then.
Also, now that conservatives are recognizing the key elements to be competitive in ballot harvesting (what used to be called elections), we can focus on organizing; by then the Supreme Court might have seen enough to address the constitutional right to fair and free elections.
Speaker Series: U.S. Congressman Ron DeSantis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6ws2t5q4Zs&t=2951s
Important caveat (apparently necessary to participate in discussions around this topic), I’ll vote for Governor DeSantis should be be the nominee.
Most politicians are narcissists to one degree or another, but the really destructive and self-destructive narcissists usually don’t make it to the highest level. They crash and burn or fizzle out in the lower levels. The politicians who do function at the national level have generally been able to subordinate their narcississm to the needs of getting elected and reelected. It comes out in small ways, but doesn’t overwhelm their chances in the political arena.
I certainly don’t think Trump has been a pernicious or destructive force in the country, but he does have trouble letting go of personal grievances and subordinating his ego to the needs of his campaign. Trump could make real headway if he concentrated on Biden and the state of the country now, rather than on DeSantis. But he doesn’t seem able to do so. It may also be that he wants to save his A-material for next year, but I think it’s more about not getting or listening to good advice. Trump can say, “I brought the economy back once and I can do it again,” but he has to convince people that his past success weren’t just a fluke — that he’s mature, dedicated, and responsible — and it doesn’t look like he’s doing very well at it.
Yeah it was a bad idea for DeSantis to oppose Disney, to oppose the trans-mafia, to oppose the lockdown Covid fascists, yeah it was pure ambition to do those things, because, donors …..
om, no one has said he shouldn’t oppose Disney, but be smart about it. Vaguely threatening to build a prison next to Disney World isn’t even good politics.
If DeSantis is going to distinguish himself from President Trump, he needs to channel less Anger and more Reagan.
Regarding anger and Reagan, we aren’t in the last century, or in Kansas any more. It seems to me quite a contrast between Trump and DeSantis already. What did Napoleon say about enemies who’s tactics are self defeating?
Of all the issues Trump tackled while president, the most critical was trade, IMO. Next was judges
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No, the most important were immigration control and judges. Trade’s not that important.
we have the castle and the moat, look disney has become hydra, it would break walts heart if they ever thawed him out,
reagan had the velvet glove, but he was willing to wield the iron fist when necessary,
om, that’s just silly. It’s temperament. Elections are about empathy, which a consummate actor can pull off. DeSantis, not so much.
You may see the differences between Trump and DeSantis– but by the time the propaganda media turns its full attention to DeSantis, he’ll look like mini-Trump and the LIV’s won’t see any difference between the two.
Will his efforts to control wokeism in Florida transfer to independent women? Conservatives are walking a tightrope/traversing a landmine– they have to be sympathetic to the plight of these ill people while pushing policies that protect traditional culture.
Art Deco, yes immigration control is important– but that policy can change on a dime. I don’t know the numbers, but I would suspect all the herculean efforts by Trump to control the border has been destroyed by Biden.
While real wages went up for the bottom tier, with immigration control part of the reason for that, Trump’s enterprise zones (I can’t remember the name) and the general uptick in the economy helped. But I think those voters failed to recognize (or the propaganda media made sure the connection wasn’t made) the benefit to their status.
Under Trump, I think there was a net flow of business from China to other cheap labor markets- which probably won’t continue under Biden, even though China is now our chief geo-political rival and the Biden policies China and Russia appear to have put aside their rivalries and are forming a working alliance.
If we can’t build economic structures to provide meaningful employment for all sectors of society, we’re not going to be able to sustain real GDP growth.
Trump started the process, though the propagandist media did their best to hide the benefit.
Brian E:
Who is being silly when you change the subject to temperament? Not President Trump’s strong suite by any means.
You fear “donors” and the hidden men behind the Florida curtain.
The woke and gender totalitarians are turning off far too many IMO.
Another own goal by President Trump:
https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2023/04/21/trump-bashes-desantis-says-florida-continues-to-tumble-into-complete-and-total-delinquency-and-destruction-n734997
If he keeps this up he will become known as The Great Goldfish. Sad.
“I certainly don’t think Trump has been a pernicious or destructive force in the country…”
Half the country hates his guts and will burn the country down in order to stop him. A quarter or so love him and will burn the country down if he’s not elected.
If it weren’t for Trump we’d be in year seven of a Cruz administration right now. He may be the most destructive force in American politics since James Buchanan.
mkent:
“A quarter or so love him and will burn the country down if he’s not elected.”
That is what the Democrats have been saying since January 6, 2020, the Insurrection that was narrowly avoided. The Democrats just didn’t have enough feds in the crowd and Roy Epps couldn’t do it all.
If it weren’t for Trump we’d be in year seven of a Cruz administration right now.
==
Per your imagination.
Elections are about empathy, which a consummate actor can pull off. DeSantis, not so much.
==
I’m trying to think of an empathetic character who has won the presidency in my lifetime. Reagan, I suppose, in public.
Brandon and empathy, yep, that makes perfect sense and explains so much.
These are my observations of Governor Ron DeSantis at this point in his career.
As to being silly, since om wasn’t able to grasp my metaphor of Anger/Reagan as temperament, I thought I’d just state it simply.
Reagan had a knack of sounding civil while being tough.
Clinton was empathetic: (biting lip) “I feel your pain”. Bush came across as empathetic (compassionate conservative). We’re in an era where a (large?) portion of the electorate are suffering from some sensitivity neurosis. Any criticism is elected to an attack. A verbal attack has now become the equivalent of a physical attack.
Why does that matter to any Republican candidate and why can Democrats get away with vicious attacks on conservatives? I think its the decades long assault on conservatives by the propagandists masquerading as journalists. We’re literally Hitler, looking for opportunities to push gramma off the cliff, starve children. It’s had an effect.
In our media drenched culture a portion of the electorate will vote for the “nice” candidate, regardless of whether the rhetoric meets the policy. And for some reason, a compliant electorate believes the propagandists masquerading as journalists because the MSM projects one uniform message. Liberals won’t watch Fox for fear of contracting rabies.
As to Trump, he has had years of experience as an actor. He packs his rallies because he puts on a good show. A sign of a good actor is the ability to portray a character as authentic. That doesn’t mean the actor doesn’t believe the role he’s playing isn’t authentic– the through inflection, intonation, pauses, facial cues the created character becomes believable.
om, I do have to say you don’t argue in good faith. Your distortions may be clever but don’t have a place here, IMO.
Art Deco:
I seem to recall that empathy was Bill Clinton’s thing. He could “feel your pain” and would bite his lip when overcome with empathetic emotion.
Brian E:
Strawmen have empathy? You go from donors, to anger, to empathy, to acting. what’s next, feelz? DeSantis fails as an actor? How much more can you toss at that wall?
It seems that DeSantis has been more effective dealing with the media and with Trump’s excessive attacks so far. Time will tell.
Actions speak louder than affectations and packing a house.