The military intelligence leak
Lots of people are writing about this, but I’m not going to do so except to say what I’ve said here many many times: I am suspicious of all the detailed military information on the Ukraine war and all prognostications. The only prediction I’ve made is one that I continue to make: this war has been and will be a long slog and there have been and will be many casualties. I don’t see a good resolution happening and I am very pessimistic about a negotiated peace.
But I figured that you would want to duke it out in the comment section, so consider this a thread for that. Here’s an article with some links, and here’s something by Glenn Greenwald that mirrors a bit of my own skepticism:
As we reviewed last night, this is a very odd leak. The papers that carry the message of the intel agencies – NYT, WPost, NBC – keep saying how dangerous this leak is, but these docs are banal, not revealing much if anything that wasn't previously known.https://t.co/wcOYpnExhv
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 11, 2023
There are a number of angles to this “leak”, a few of which involve Mossad and other Israeli defense issues. Caroline Glick discusses these here at JNS: https://www.jns.org/opinion/netanyahu-speaks-to-the-generals/
Neo:
Check email.
“how dangerous this leak is”
Well, then, do NOT publish it! I, too, find it bizarre that the news media will say how “dangerous” a leak is.
But, showing my age here, I remember that it was the media that was about to “leak” that during the Iran hostage taking in the US embassy in Tehran that not all employees were taken hostage, some were “on the run” in Tehran somewhere. The news media didn’t care how dangerous that “leak” would be! It took a call from the Canadian PM to the journalist to promise a special interview afterwards if the journalist agreed to not publish anything until after the hostages were all safe.
Even after the “on the run” embassy employees got out of Iran the plan was to house them in a safe house in Germany, not even tell their family members they were free until ALL hostages were safe, due to the fear of reprisals against the remaining hostages.
But, the news media went ahead and published their flight to freedom anyway – not giving a rat’s patootie about the safety of anyone else. “The story above all else!”
So, no, I’m not buying anything the news media tells us about something be “dangerous” or not. They are just hoping to embarrass someone or do a “told you so!”
Anyone wants to bet there is another IT contractor with access to all the classified data?
“The leaker apparently obtained them from Hillary’s e-mail server”
Now THAT would be a great headline. Waiting for the Bee to come up with it.
😀
P.S., Clearly, it was all Bush’s fault.
Bush was working for The Great Orange Whale.
Charles makes the point.
Oh, the irony.
The very media that wails about the leaks, publishes the leaks. And calls for retribution against the leakers, whose efforts they use to fill pages/airtime while they wait for Biden’s stories from Ireland about how he grew up in a working class Irish neighborhood and fought the school bullies every afternoon to protect the smaller kids and KOC (kids of color)–and won. “I’m not joking, man”.
“I am suspicious of all the detailed military information on the Ukraine war and all prognostications.” — Absolutely. Best reason I know to not “duke it out.”
To the point that I am not just pessimistic…but skeptical about any sort of “peace.” I’m unconvinced the current combatants want peace…conquest, domination, regime change…sure… “peace,” I’m not so sure.
Those dang Christians. “Posts and channel listings show that the server’s users were interested in video games, music and Orthodox Christianity.” This server was not especially geopolitical in nature, although its users had a staunchly conservative stance. Racial slurs and racist memes were shared widely. /// One document, written in 2008 warned that so many different agencies were conducting operations inside gaming services that a “deconfliction” group was needed to prevent them spying on each other by accident. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/technology/leaked-pentagon-documents-linked-gaming-chat-platform
The only good democracy is a throttled one … so sayeth our Founders.
Today, we are not in a throttled one, but in a full bore “democracy” that is also known as mob rule.
Good job United States, very good job indeed.
TexasDude
I can’t get too excited about leaks from this treasonous regime. Nixon made a huge mistake by pursuing the “Pentagon Papers” leak. It was embarrassing only to Johnson. Nixon get all that guff for no good reason.
“Leaked Top Secret Documents Reveal Diminishing Weapons Supplies for Ukraine (Veuer)”
“Some assess Ukraine’s combat capabilities after a year of fighting, pointing to looming issues with air defenses and munitions supplies as Kyiv preps for an expected spring counteroffensive that’s heavily dependent on slow-to-arrive Western arms.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-documents-leak-summary-classified-ukraine-russia-war-us-2023-4
Among a few others, Col. Douglas MacGregor has been speaking of this reality for many months.
I’m only surprised that there aren’t more leaks coming from the Biden administration.
yes ellsberg was mostly airing out old laundry, but there were rumors he was willing to leak the nuclear targeting list, siop, which he had worked on while at rand,
This historic intel leak has been traced back to Biden hitting ‘reply all’ on his email.
https://tinyurl.com/mr33d28b
trump’s bigger issue, is how close we are to nuclear war, which he strove so strongly to avoid, (I don’t know the wisdom of dealing with the kim dynast, but we see how precariously our situation has declined since he left office)
I agree with this take:
US intel agencies aren’t worried about Russia reading the leaked classified information about Ukraine war. What concerns them is Americans reading the documents for themseves.
https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1645974473638551553?cxt=HHwWgoCxqYTE1tctAAAA
As well as it embarrasses the mainstream news media showing how biased their coverage has been.
I rate these leaks as equal to the Steele Dossier, the Whitmer Kidnapping, the Covid spawning wet market, and the Jan. 6th Insurrection. The people telling us to believe them have much to gain from our belief in them.
Well, there is one aspect of the leaks that is interesting. US military personnel are in Ukraine directing combat operations.
BBC is now reporting on part of the NOFORN leak as it pertains to Ukraine. According to the classified intelligence, active U.K and U.S. military personnel are conducting the war effort inside Ukraine. Congress has not authorized any active U.S. military involvement. The White House has previously denied any active U.S. military involvement.
no if it was any of them, they would be reporting on them
I assume they’re just trying to get out ahead of Ukraine having to give up something to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire, trying to avoid a “We have always been at war with Eastasia” moment when it happens suddenly after all the media’s been full of how badly Russia is losing and how it’s raiding museums for tanks…
And if so they really need not have bothered. The media’s always happy to turn on a dime and the public doesn’t seem over concerned. Even the people who comment here, definitely more attentive than most, have a hard time calling to mind things that happened more than six months ago.
I assume a huge amount of American taxpayer money will be needed to replenish the stocks of weapons expended, but that’s not a loss as far as Washington, D. C. is concerned. The lives lost aren’t replaced so easily, though.
And of course we have Americans on the ground in Ukraine. Of course we do. It’s that six months ago thing where we forget about Americans on the ground in Syria or Yemen or wherever and then we move on to the next media narrative.
furthermore it is counter narrative,
Whatever.
Fog of war.
Time will tell.
Interesting stuff from the leaks:
1. Israeli Intel backed protesters against Netanyahu.
2. Listing of options to pressure Israel to help Ukraine
3. US spying on Allies
4. US and other boots on ground in Ukraine
5. Lack of info on real casualties of Ukraine- report uses official info
6. Unpreparedness of new Ukraine forces for counter offensive
7. How little supplies Ukraine has left.
Nothing earth shattering, but it’s a bit different from the official Western Ukraine is winning narrative.
The similarities between Netanyahu and Trump are striking, Even the example of an older brother. Trump’s of course was of not to do but Bibi idolized his older brother, In both cases, a significant influence on later life. I’m reading Netanyahu’s autobiography.
It was the Entebbe raid that made me a Zionist. Before that I was pretty neutral. The US tried it with Carter and failed. The left in Israel is fooling around with disaster.
Big Brother needs Thought Police. The MSM is eagerly volunteering. It’s fun to play God with the lives of other people. Not everyone gets to be so much smarter and morally superior.
As for news media publishing stories that only help the bad guys, the worst was likely the NY Times publication of the story about how all the Western nations had cooperated to monitor and sometimes seize the assets of Islamic terrorists. The editor was someone named Keller IIRC. He gave a long interview trying to justify the decision to publish. It was eye-opening in revealing how stupid he was. Really scary stupid. I don’t think it is possible to underestimate the intelligence or competence of journalists and their managements.
yes jonatan was a big influence, I think he was played by james woods in the film or raid on entebbe, he has all the credentials that trump lacks, military service, advanced degrees, but he’s rubbed even elements of the likud the wrong way,
Information warfare.
duh
miguel. There were two movies on that raid. Some difference in plot and emphasis, bigger diff in casting.
At one point, a shot in an airport had two or three guys in tight leisure suits and afros walking by. Had forgotten how grotesque that look was.
Top Men, Top, I tell you.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/security-docs-on-bidens-ireland-trip-found-on-belfast-street
Back in the day, I was custodian of classified documents at an HQ somewhat more complicated than Infantry. The only thing anybody was concerned about was that we didn’t lose any.
Nobody ever asked to get into the safe to check the owners manual for one or another modern marvel.
They say don’t ascribe malice to what is usually stupidity. But, given the drills and protocols and cautions, nobody’s this stupid.
Nobody.
What Leland and om said.
Meanwhile (while nobody’s looking)….
“Despite Iranian attack killing American abroad, Biden pursues nuclear deal with ayatollah’s regime;
“Recent report claims Biden administration pursuing temporary deal with Tehran”—
https://www.foxnews.com/world/despite-iranian-attack-killing-american-abroad-biden-pursues-nuclear-deal-ayatollahs-regime
“ZOA slams Biden admin ‘stealth move’ to lift nuclear sanctions on Iran;
“Zionist Organization of America outraged over White House sanctions waiver that will also benefit Russia.”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/367227
File under: “Fatal Distraction”, the Sequel (of the Sequel of the Sequel of the Sequel….)
now the curious thing idi amin was trained by the british and the israelis (the former when he fought for them in kenya) then he changed his stripes, kind of like that justin pearson character,
I don’t always “get” classified.
Example: When I was in, 69-71, there would occasionally be talk about something which happened on a mountain in Laos, something to do with navigation or something.
Years later, a novel I happened to read had a rather detailed story about such a place being overrun. That was in the fiction section of the library.
Years after that, it was declassified. The novel got most of the more important details right.
See “Site 85”.
Haven’t followed other such items but from time to time, you hear something and think THAT was classified? Dumb. Or how come everybody already heard of it but you can’t talk about it. Actually, you could talk about it, if you didn’t have a clearance, whatever it was. But not if you did have a clearance.
So the question might be…we know and…do they know we know? Or, it appears they know we know but…if we acknowledge it, then we look like bad guys. Or if they’re not sure, then perhaps they won’t be after our sources.
Or….get around to declassifying sometime, meantime everybody knows it anyway.
off the plain of jarres, right, long tieng, officially we weren’t supposed to be in laos, but we had been there since 1960 white star, that was the top line conflict in Vietnam,
So how on earth does a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman walk out of a SCIF with this kind of sensitive information? Why was he there to begin with?
https://redstate.com/smoosieq/2023/04/13/breaking-fbi-has-arrested-air-national-guardsman-in-ma-in-connection-with-classified-document-leak-n730874
Kate
From my time in, several levels of command above him are responsible for securing such information and premises. Shouldn’t be one person allowed in on his own say-so, and out, ditto, no checking. But that must be how it happened.
Lots of folks sweating it out tonight.
Presuming this is all on the up and up, although if it’s a put-up by the feds, I guess it would still be a sweaty situation.
Hell, if the surveillance cameras showed Hunter walking in and out with a couple of armloads…this guy would still be in trouble.
Thanks, Richard Aubrey. I don’t know what to believe any more. If these charges are accurate, some higher-up, or maybe several, should be cashiered over this.
That’s probably the best strategy, at this point– believe no one.
As you point out, how did this person get access to these documents? Is it possible the documents were left out just so this person could find them? That certainly gives the actual leakers pretty good cover.
If the investigation ends with this person– I would say it’s a good probability the fix is in, and these documents were leaked as a false flag? temper expecations about the war? give Ukraine cover if they’re unable to mount a significant “counteroffensive”?
My money is lowering expectations. There was a retired military person (an admiral I think) on CNN about a week ago saying it would be a win if Ukraine can cut the supply line to Crimea through Kherson. That would be a win– but not the stated goal of Ukraine retaking Crimea.
There was one bit of information that makes all this more puzzling. The casualty ratio between Russia and Ukraine was almost reversed from what is being publicly reported. I had read the numbers had been doctored (showing a pixel level enlargement that section of the photographs). So who doctored them? this 21-year old National Guardsman?
Judge Napolitano had ex-CIA Larry Johnson on. He thinks this is a “disinformation campaign” according to him. He said one of the documents was stamped “CIA Operations Center Report”, which a Fort Bragg soldier would never have access to.
LEAKER ARRESTED. Something Smells – Larry Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1HBlnKl0E
“wrapped up nice and neatly”.
Only missing the MAGA hats and Latin missals.
Gee. How come we’re all over suspicious these days?
Can’t picture this compared to where I was stationed. Our safe door was locked. Two people watched it be opened, watched who ever entered leave. And from time to time and inspection came around to see we had what we were supposed to have, missing nothing. That was important, back in 70-71 when making copies was a very big deal. Couldn’t just throw something on the scanner and ask for six copies, enlarged, and be out in under a minute and a half.
One possibility occurs to me; the whole thing was so obviously unimportant, dated, useless to whomever found it, not at all dangerous, that it wasn’t worth safeguarding beyond a “classified” face page or stamp. According to somebody.
The fix is almost surely in. CTH has the videos of Larry Johnson and Napolitano.