I’ve heard the dating pool was bad, but I didn’t know it was this bad! Woof!
Words did used to have meaning, but not since leftism took root in education.
Funny except, … there was a news item recently about a rape and double homicide resulting from a lesbian dating site hookup.
Good substack about life in nursing homes and long term care facilities in the Covid era and beyond. Cruelty to the extreme.
Just saw a news report on the CNBC noon show. News brief on DeSantis signing the new Fla law taking away Disney’s dictatorship over Reedy Creek. News reader said: 1) DeSantis was signing a law that gave him control, and 2) the new law was passed because Disney opposed the “don’t say gay” law.
CNBC lies. Of course, no surprise. Don’t say gay is a nasty, slanderous lie. And it’s a lie to say that DeSantis is taking control.
These news media people are nasty, ugly people. Not wrong. Not confused. Not simply expressing a different opinion. Liars and Slanderers. Purposeful and Deliberate. Lying and slandering as a political strategy. See also Jan 6 insurrection. Vile lies embraced and amplified by a vile news media.
It will continue as long as there is no cost, no pushback. And it will continue to degrade and eventually destroy America.
Fetterman rumors today are sad. If they are true, I wonder what tools Republicans might have to force D’s hand on his resignation. I have no doubt that Senate D’s and the PA governor would drag this out as long as possible if it is to their advantage to do so. With 51 senators, they don’t absolutely need his vote. I wonder if McConnell can find some scenario for which D’s would need the vote of the junior senator from PA?
Also, I understood that, if Fetterman resigned, the special election for the rest of his term would be in 2024. The rumors today suggest that the special election would be held in November of this year if Fetterman resigns more than 90 days before the election. I’m not sure which is correct. The R team probably has a better shot in November of 2023, but D’s will still be in a bad spot if they have to defend both PA Senate seats in 2024, especially with one of them being open.
Last week, visited a young mother with newborn at the hospital.
Brought to mind all the covid restrictions preventing such a visit, as well as no visits for terminally ill, or simply anybody hospitalized.
Naturally led to remembering lone wanderer on beach being arrested, six week isolations for testing positive, people stripping clothes off before entering their home after shopping, leaving canned goods from shopping in the garage for a week to de-contaminate, fines for churches allowing attendance, shut down AA and NA meetings.etc,etc,etc.
Meanwhile, our betters were allowed to ignore the rules, secretly. Or riot without fear of mass infection, openly.
I don’t mean to harp on AmericanThinker today, but this one is fascinating too.
The key to cleaning voter rolls, to the leftists’ dismay, is not finding dead voters. It is finding legitimate addresses — that cannot receive a ballot.
If a voter integrity team challenges a dead guy, it is challenging a person. There are decades of law, from our leftist pals, to thwart removing the dead from the voter roll. [How did that happen?]
Leftists built an entire infrastructure around protecting the guy — not the address. Knock on a couple of doors to see if Pedro lives there, and you get a visit from the Justice Department.
Addresses are a different matter.
Cnbc marketwatch cbs rots your brain
(Thats not a comprehensive list)
Has anyone else received a demand from the Bureau of the Census (bearing the imperial message on the front in a black box, “YOUR RESPONSE IS REQUIRED BY LAW”!)?
Apparently some of us lucky citizens are chosen at random to “participate” in something called the American Community Survey, to be done online. Them as cannot complete the survey online will be sent “a paper questionnaire in a few weeks.” I have half a mind to wait and make the BoC send me the paper questionnaire, just to eff with them. Lawyers on the thread: Which law is it that requires participation in this kind of survey? Inquiring deplorables want to know.
Interesting video.
Kind of answers the question: How can a woman not know that she’s pregnant?
Or perhaps this variation: How can a woman not even suspect that she’s pregnant?
(Actually, I thought the punchline was going to be “Aliens”, so I was a bit disappointed; still interesting, though.)
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
Speaking of questions…: How can “Biden” not know (or even suspect) that “he”‘s driving the country off a cliff economically?
The answer? Oh, “he” knows alright. “He” can’t just gloat about it…in public, that is…
“Subprime Auto Lender And Used Car Retailer Collapses As Distress Cycle Finally Arrives”— https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subprime-auto-lender-and-used-car-retailer-collapses-distress-cycle-finally-arrives
Key grafs:
“…[A]fter a lengthy period in which nothing seemed to happen, suddenly the dominoes are starting to fall, and as Bloomberg reports, used car retailer and subprime auto loan lender, American Car Center, told employees the business was closing its doors, just one day after the company had hoped to pull off a funding Hail Mary by selling a $222 million bond (it failed).
“According to Bloomberg, the used car retailer, which targets consumers regardless of their credit history (and thus targets almost entirely subprime borrowers who can’t get a loan elsewhere), said in an email to employees on Friday the firm was ceasing all operations….[Emphasis mine; Barry M.]
“…The long overdue collapse – the first of many – comes as more Americans are starting to fall behind on their car payments, and the distress cycle is rapidly accelerating. [Emphasis in original]
“Think of it as the infamous New Century domino that signaled the collapse of subprime housing… only for cars…..”
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly. Default, here we come !
I also can’t imagine how that woman did not know she was pregnant. My wife had our daughter that same year. She was pretty athletic and weighed 105 pounds at that time. When pregnant she looked like “A beachball with legs” as she described herself. Our daughter weighed 5 1/2 pounds at birth. That daughter is now a wife and mother and is taller than I am. Her mother still weighs 105 pounds.
Bauxite, what are the “Fetterman rumors today?” I haven’t seen anything.
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly.
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.
It’s just a guess, but I get the feeling many don’t even want to think about the prices they are paying for things. And they don’t. That’s not a good thing, if true.
“Speaking of questions…: How can “Biden” not know (or even suspect) that “he”‘s driving the country off a cliff economically?”
Joe may only be exposed to news favorable to him. Perfect example is him bragging about gas prices coming down and perhaps being un aware they are still a dollar more than during Trump. Not as if he ever pumps gas or pays for it.
Never watched Tucker to see what the big deal is, unaware of Ace, Insta, Neo, or any other center/ right source of info.
“TommyJay on February 27, 2023 at 4:55 pm said:
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly.
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.”
I get 2% from the bank on purchases. Always pay entire balance when due. Don’t have a bunch of change and one dollar bills hanging around anymore. Use cash for tips, gas, and beggers mostly.
Real downside is for young consumers. Many pay no attention to, and have no idea of, what things cost.
Paycheck auto deposit, slide the credit card, and done. Goes along with ask young ones what they paid in federal taxes. They will say they didn’t pay, they got money back. Oblivious to fact that they gave govt. thousands through withholding.
Griffin, Fullmoon and others:
This happen in India when the pandemic shutdown began:
Given that the migrants in the video are most likely lower caste played a part in the treatment (and their apparent submissive tolerance of such nasty treatment; lower castes in India that fight back could end up dead) – this wouldn’t happen to those who are Brahmin caste, and the Brahmin caste wouldn’t tolerate it.
Aside from the obvious case of the likes of Bull Connor, I like to think that our second amendment helps to minimize this kind of nasty behavior here in the US. (Condoleezza Rice mentions in her book, Extraordinary, Ordinary People: A Memoir of Family, that her father and other men in their neighborhood sat on their front porches with their shotguns all night and that kept the Klan away from their middle class black neighborhood when the idiots were running around in white sheets terrorizing black neighborhoods.)
History is filled with events that shows fear leads people to do all sorts of wild things.
Mike K:
A small percentage of pregnant women just don’t “show,” or don’t show much. It is hard to believe but it seems to be the case.
Kate – There was a rumor today that Fetterman is permanently incapacitated and that Democrats were keeping him in office past a deadline that would push out the special election to replace him, thereby extending the term of whover the PA governor appoints to replace him.
Frankly, I’m skeptical. The correspondent reporting the rumor appears to be incorrect about the special election deadline date.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see what happens if D’s actually need Fetterman’s vote while he recovers.
they have shown so much contempt for the institutions of govt, why shouldn’t we suspect the worse, of the golem they installed in the senate, and those who pull his strings,
Why only the 1 child?
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.
TommyJay:
I’m sure that’s true, but there also seems to be a squeeze coming from the banks, the treasury and some merchants to eliminate cash.
During Covid I kept running into signs about how there was a shortage of coins so don’t ask for them. But what really was happening was that the treasury was limiting coins intentionally on the pretext of Covid protection from infectious coins (fomites is the technical term).
Some merchants are happier to pay the credit charge service than keep cash around. (It also speeds up transactions and doesn’t burden current cashiers who seem to have more trouble making change than previous generations.)
Credit cards leave a digital trail and are great for governmental control. I do believe there is a long-term goal to eliminate cash.
miguel cervantes – You’re not wrong. D’s in general and Fetterman in particular have lied about his health repeatedly.
You can lie and dissemble about a candidate/office holder’s health, or you can complain when people suspect that you may be lying and dissembling about a candidiate/office holder’s health, but you can’t do both. . . at least not legitimately.
huxley,
A few days ago you mentioned (on a different thread) that you had read something about language instruction. Part of the point that the typical, U.S. classroom method stinks (no argument there), but you seemed to also conclude that speaking didn’t deliver much benefit. Reading and listening were most important.
I disagree. Vehemently. I encourage you to find a way to speak to native speakers as often as possible, even if you have to pay them (there are plenty of such services over the Internet). And insist they use no English, no matter how much you may struggle to find a word or words. Even if you don’t get many opportunities with native speakers talk to yourself, out loud, speak French whenever you can, as often as you can.
I studied Latin in College. Fairly rigorously. I was an A student. It was nearly all reading, vocabulary, grammar. In my last year I translated Virgil’s Aeneid. The day I left class I could barely speak any Latin, except for quotes I had memorized. I had no facility with the language. I could read a great deal. My thought process with a Latin sentence was like solving a puzzle.
Later, when I met my wife I became determined to learn her first language, the language she spoke with her family; German. I tried a lot of different methods (and reading and listening are important), but speaking opened entirely different pathways in my brain than Latin ever did. I put post-it notes all over our house with German vocabulary and every time I did something I’d say a sentence about it out loud. As I shaved and looked in the mirror with the “Spiegel” post it note on it I’d make up silly German songs about shaving. I’d talk to our cats in German. When I went for a jog I’d breathe out sentences about the cars passing by, the weather that day…
You know how a lot of people were forced to take piano lessons for years and can play some songs only if the sheet music is right in front of them? And some people can sit in with a band and play? The first is me with Latin. The second is me with German. It is two different skill sets. Forge the neural networks that do both, especially speech! Speech forces you to learn on fly and adapt and get very creative. That nervous energy from having to work it out in real time with native speakers stimulates memorization. A week speaking only French with other French speakers is as good as six months of taking notes in a classroom.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Great to strike sparks with you! I’m fascinated with these issues.
First, I don’t conclude that speaking doesn’t deliver much benefit. I’m repeating the claim of the Input Hypothesis linguists, primarily Steve Krashen. I don’t know it is true.
However, I do like the idea that speaking is not central to acquiring language. Steve Kaufmann (same initials, different guy) is my current polyglot language learning guru. His practice is to defer speaking until he has had 3-6 months of reading/listening and acquired 2000-3000 words of vocabulary. Then, he says, speaking comes naturally.
I wouldn’t find the “nervous energy” from speaking in real time useful. I would find it quite stressful. I don’t have anything I want to say yet. However, I believe I will in a few months.
Currently I’m making good progress. Two months in and I estimate I’m reading French at the 4th/5th grade level with a vocabulary of 1000+ words. At the moment I’m reading/listening to Edgar Allen Poe’s “The Black Cat” in French. Riveting! I have to look up a lot of words up and work out the sentence but I’m doing it and enjoying it.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Also, learning the language of one’s lover is the all-time best scenario for language acquisition!
huxley,
Impressive! Sounds like you’re making good progress. Well done!
I don’t recall hearing of Kaufmann, but other polyglots I’ve studied really stress what I stumbled onto; start using it, in public, right away.
If I remember, my actual German progression was probably similar to what Kaufmann recommends; I don’t think I did speak much until I knew 2,000 words, but that didn’t take long. I probably was struggling without much speaking for the first 3 – 6 months. However, once I started communicating verbally it accelerated my learning immensely. And I disagree about being nervous. You need to learn to manage that and put it aside. It’s easy to fall into a trap of trying to speak perfect, grammatic French (I started out there with German). I was nervous and slow and it was frustrating for folks trying to speak with me.
Then I thought of all the non-native English speakers I know who often butcher English grammar and vocabulary while having great conversations. I realized communication is about getting one’s point across; not passing a grammar exam.
I do not agree that speaking comes naturally without A LOT of speaking.
If you spend 3 months reading song lyrics can you sing?
Also, regarding polyglots, once one cracks the code with one foreign language, subsequent language learning comes much faster. I follow something like Kaufmann’s method, as you describe it, when going to foreign, non-German or English speaking countries. I’ll memorize about 15 verbs and learn to conjugate them; to be, to hold, to purchase, to eat, to want… I learn their alphabet and how to pronounce it. I learn how to count. I learn about 40 or 50 adjectives and adverbs and their opposites (I memorize them in pairs; hot/cold, fast/slow…). Then I learn as many nouns as I can; starting with the most needed; hotel, taxi, train, money, foods, directions…
And I can generally get around; speaking with natives in that land regarding the essentials. But it’s because I cracked the code once and my brain knows what to do now.
How did you learn your first language? Did you know what an adjective was when you were 3? Did you know about verb conjugation? Did you read Edgar Allen Poe when you were 4? No. You listened and repeated. It worked for you with English. Why not with French?
huxley @ 10:12pm,
Yes. It was a very happy impetus.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Actually, there is research, which Krashen and Kaufmann cite, that children, who speak later than other children, catch up quickly when they do start speaking.
So, deferring speaking is not a terrible thing for children and may not be for adults.
Krashen and Kaufmann are on your side when it comes to grammar (and Edgar Allen Poe). However, they consider that listening (input) is primary and speech (output) minimally so for acquiring language.
There have been a ton of language learning theories and fashions over the past few centuries which have come and gone.
Linguists don’t know the *best* way to learn language. My impression is we are so hard-wired to learn language that everything works if you keep at it.
So motivation is arguably the key factor. Krashen and Kaufmann emphasize it.
Re: Learning subsequent languages is easier
Rufus:
That’s what I hear. I’m so encouraged by my French experience, I’m thinking of taking on another language (or more) later..
I notice now that when I encounter stray bits of Spanish text they don’t look nearly so mysterious.
Open thread, but not Sunday
What the war on Ukraine should be teaching the US military.
cdr salamander
Monday, February 27, 2023 One Year in the Russo-Ukrainian War: the Big Pixels
“1. Short-War Snake Oil Salesmen are Worthy of Little but Scorn:
2. You Must Have a Sovereign Military-Industrial Complex
3. Deep Magazines, Running Production Lines, and Distributed Risk:
4. Range Matters:
5. Cutting Edge is a Mirage:
6. Diversity Matters:
7. Your Military May be Lying to You:”
I do not agree that speaking comes naturally without A LOT of speaking.
Rufus:
Kaufmann would agree. His point is that *starting* to speak comes naturally when one has a base level of vocabulary and language structure.
As opposed to being required to leap to one’s feet in class and declare one’s name and pronouns on the very first day.
Rufus,
To be, to hold, to buy, to eat, to want…
I’m curious. What are the other 10?
OM, I identify with CDR S on nearly everything.
Especially:
“7. Your Military May be Lying to You:”
Oh yeah. Vietnam was an example. Ops reports massaged up the chain of command. By the time they reached the top, all was just fine.
“4. Range Matters:”
Yep. Carrier warfare is only useful if the enemy has no long-range missiles or air power. With the anti-ship missiles now available, the carrier, to be safe, must operate at such a distance that its airplanes can’t reach the enemy targets. Thus, rendering them useless. Navl air does not want to admit this. 🙁
But not so much here:
“5. Cutting Edge is a Mirage:”
I disagree. Smart, high-tech weapons are changing the face of war. Sucha jump in effectiveness from the accuracy of the iron bombs we dropped in Vietnam in the 1960s to the Walleye bombs that the Israeli Air Force used on Egypt in 1973. And the weapons are much better today. We could maintain relatively small forces in Afghanistan and Iraq because we held such a big technological edge.
Russia and Ukraine are using WWII tactics with smart weapons thrown in. Mass, armor and infantry can’t take and hold ground without terrible losses. Sustained advances aren’t happening.
Russia seems to be slowly destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure with long range missiles. An evil strategy. How many Patriot batteries would it take to stop that? I have no answer.
This interview isn’t noteworthy because Fiona Hill reveals some new strategy for negotiations with Russia, but more because it reveals how worthless these foreign policy experts really are.
According to her, our policy approach to Russia in 2007 saying Ukraine and Georgia could join NATO at some later date was a mistake. And not for the reasons you might expect.
We need to negotiate, but without making any concessions to Russia on territory.
We need to think new thoughts.
The UN needs to be more engaged, not the security council, because the world doesn’t trust the US. How they could negotiate an end when territory won’t be involved she doesn’t say.
I thought she might have a severe case of whiplash by the end of it. Either she’s a genius beyond my feeble comprehension, or an idiot.
She did say absolute victory over Russia is not possible, so there is that.
Fiona Hill: Absolute victory over Russia is not possible
I’d have to look for my business travel notebooks. I haven’t traveled internationally for a few years. I also have a list of “helper” words. I think there are about 15 of this; prepositions, articles… It’s really helpful that most languages (other than English) are phonetic. If you drill their alphabet and pronunciation you can pick up a lot when “in country.” Words are everywhere.
Regarding the verbs; I’m sure you know that the most used are often irregular, which makes learning them require more time; to be, to have, to do.
Other verbs; to drink, to take in a vehicle (drive, convey) (taxi, train) (I don’t know of any language other than English where the verb “to take” serves that purpose, to know, to say/speak, to ask, to read, to purchase/buy.
Also the 5 Ws (who, what, when, where, why) and how. Man, woman. This, that.
“What cost that?” (and point). Takes minutes to learn and comes in handy. Especially if you’ve also learned something about their numbers.
And the first words to learn are “thank you,” “please,” and “Excuse me, do you speak English.”
huxley,
Krashen and Kaufmann may be correct, they certainly know the subject far beyond my abilities, but regardless, why not speak? If you’re reading Poe’s “The Cask of Amontillado” why not read it aloud? What’s the harm? It’s good practice for your facial muscles and tongue. And you’ll find words you’re having difficulty pronouncing and you can work on them, then and there.
If you had to give a speech in front of 300 people you’d be nervous. In order to lessen the nerves on speech day you’d practice saying it aloud many times, even in front of a mirror. The more you speak, even 3 word sentences, the more comfortable you get.
Saying such things out loud was a huge help for me for getting used to the sounds. After awhile I no longer had to remember the first person plural form of a verb, if the subject of the sentence was “we” any other form of the verb “sounded” wrong. The right tense would come out of my mouth without thinking of the grammar.
@ Rufus > “Saying such things out loud was a huge help for me for getting used to the sounds. After awhile I no longer had to remember the first person plural form of a verb, if the subject of the sentence was “we” any other form of the verb “sounded” wrong. The right tense would come out of my mouth without thinking of the grammar.”
If only some of our native English speakers could do so as well.
I have given up in despair at the number of internet pundits who do not (and maybe cannot) use correct grammar, although that is in writing more than speaking – because I don’t listen to videos or talking heads anymore.
Why can’t they “hear” that what they are saying / writing is wrong?
They had too many bad examples in their formative years of learning the language, IMO. It’s a cascade of ignorance (shows up in word choice and idiom mangling also).
FWIW, I agree with you that learners should start speaking as soon as they can manage something close to the correct pronunciation, even if it’s just reading or reciting “set phrases” as you recommend.
Muscle memory (aka brain behavior) is very important in language, as it is in singing or playing musical instruments, or practicing any skill or sport.
cdrsalamander has discussed carrier operations against Xi land; the short range of carrier strike assets (planes) and the threat posed by Xi’s missiles. Lets just say that the vulnerabilities of the USN are recognized but Xi doesn’t have magic new technology either. It ain’t the 1930s vis a vi the USN and the IJN.
Thanks for the Douglas Murray links, AesopFan. Mr. Murray is brilliant and fearless. A courageous defender of freedom.
AesopFan,
In that comic Calvin reminded me of the youtube of “Professor” Vincent Lloyd discussing race with Messrs. Loury and McWhorter that someone here recently shared.
f you’re reading Poe’s “The Cask of Amontillado” why not read it aloud? What’s the harm? It’s good practice for your facial muscles and tongue. And you’ll find words you’re having difficulty pronouncing and you can work on them, then and there.
Rufus T. Firefly:
I do. My routine is to go through a text sentence by sentence:
* I read the text to get an idea of what’s going on.
* If I have an audio file, I listen to that 2-3 times. If I don’t, I use Google Translate to hear the text.
* I may try to speak the text a few times.
* I go through the sentence word by word, looking up the words I don’t know or am not sure of. I mark those I’m not getting.
* I work out the sentence structure. Where are the subject, verb and objects? (I can get lost if the clauses are nested deeply.)
* I come up with my best attempt at translation.
* I compare that with an official translation and either pat myself on the back or figure out where I went wrong.
* Then I go back and take several cracks at listening and speaking the text aloud (subvocally if I’m in a cafe.)
* I also consult a thin grammar book, as Kaufmann recommends, if I’m really confused or I notice a pattern and want to check it.
It takes a while, but that’s OK. I pick texts which hold my interest and are exciting challenges. Time passes quickly.
Pnaic Whores got to sell clicks, Bakhmut may finally fall to Vlad. Or maybe not. Bakhmut isn’t the key to the entire Donbas or Ukraine.
You told who, what, again?
All the best to you, huxley. Glad you are enjoying the process and I hope you achieve your goals!
(I’m a big advocate of learning a musical instrument and a foreign language simply for what one learns about learning in the process. It’s also good to do something that is physical; riding a unicycle, juggling, balance, yoga, rope jumping tricks, tumbling, tai chi, running a mile under a certain time, hitting a certain number of consecutive free throws without missing, darts, bowling, billiards… Something that requires measurable improvement in physical dexterity. Mastering physical challenges is also great for the brain!)
This was reported on the ISW website, which has been providing maps of the frontlines of the Ukraine war in eastern Ukraine:
“UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms. The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however. The Wall Street Journal contrasted these officials’ private reservations with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which did not mention peace negotiations—and with Central and Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.”
This mapping is being led by Fred Kagan.
Previously, officials in the EU have indicated the war will be over by the end of summer. Could this mean Europe will give Ukraine a chance to mount a counteroffensive this late spring/summer, regain territory, and hopefully convince Russia to accept some limited territorial gains and some security guarantees for Ukraine, but short of NATO membership?
In the coverage of Ukraine-Russia war, I try and get European perspective from sources such as DW News (German public broadcasting), France 24 and Sky News.
“We underestimated how much antipathy to NATO’s existence there was in Russia” – US ambassador Stephen Pifer (1998-2000)
This is a common theme amongst our foreign policy community. Whether it’s Pifer or Fiona Hill or John Bolton, the message is the same– mistakes were made. Putin made it very clear in 2007-08. We didn’t believe him. He made it crystal clear in Dec. 2021. We believed him, but then ignored him saying bad things would happen if Russia entered Ukraine.
om wonders why I’m so focused on the events surrounding the illegal overthrow of pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Because these events and our clumsy handling of NATO expansion in the late 90’s and onward have created the dynamic that’s playing out now.
Turtler makes the point that these countries sought out membership to NATO, but it’s also true we had no obligations to accept them and could have prevented their membership. Could we have given them security assurances while not allowing NATO military hardware to move into these countries? Very possibly.
Whatever the outcome of this conflict, it’s likely we’ll have to come up with some arrangement like that. Given the influence of militaristic nationalist political influences in Ukraine at this point, we should stop short of NATO membership. It’s very possible they would trigger future hostilities with Russia, if any territory in the east or south is ceded to Russia as part of a peace plan.
Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News
I’m not puzzled at all about your fixation with Yanukivitch; “its all you got.”
Obstinacy. You be you.
Brian E
The Slavic Spring is a coup, a denial of essential services, a military/paramilitary axis assaulting Ukrainians for over nine years, and an apartheid regime with “benefits” in the World War Spring series conceived, perhaps, and birthed by Obama, Biden, and Decepticons from Tripoli to Cairo to Damascus to Baghdad to Kabul to Kiev. I think Biden has NOW returned from feathering the trail of the Maidan-gate collusion in Kiev. Oh, well. They have Biden/Maidan-gate, while we contend with the attempted Jan 6 fire and Dezi progression.
n.n.
How unique is the Russophile view of Ukrainian affairs and recent history.
“Denial of services,” LOL.
You understand your adversary not the way you wish but how he actually is
Miguel:
And our adversary is Ukraine, not Russia or China? Otay, Senor.
All the best to you, huxley. Glad you are enjoying the process and I hope you achieve your goals!
Rufus T. Firefly:
Thanks, especially coming from someone who has walked the path ahead of me.
I am pleased with my progress through the novice phase, but it has become clearer what a long-term undertaking this is and one that is never truly completed.
In case you are curious about the Input Hypothesis, here’s a decent web article on Krashen excerpted for output:
__________________________________
But what about output? Aren’t speaking and writing important, too?
There actually is a comprehensible output hypothesis, proposed by another linguist named Merrill Swain. She argues that some language learning occurs when a learner produces output and notices a gap in their language ability (How do I say that word again?). They may then change their output approach, and in so doing, develop their language ability.
Swain acknowledges that this cannot explain all language acquisition, but it may explain some language acquisition.
Krashen disagrees and provides several responses. Three of his arguments are:
* That output is relatively rare in language learning. Language learners do not speak and write nearly as much as they listen or read.
* He provides evidence that some individuals achieve significant language acquisition without much output.
* There is a lack of direct evidence supporting this hypothesis.
He concludes,
“Given the consistent evidence for comprehensible input, and the failure of other means of developing language competence, providing more comprehensible input seems to be a more reasonable strategy than increasing output [for language learning].”
om wonders why I’m so focused on the events surrounding the illegal overthrow of pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Because these events and our clumsy handling of NATO expansion in the late 90’s and onward have created the dynamic that’s playing out now.
It wasn’t illegal and the expansion of NATO was not mishandled.
@n.n.
The Slavic Spring is a coup,
That’s literally the only thing you listed that is at least SOMEWHAT defensible , and even that ignores the importance of the Ukrainian Parliament, its divides with the executive under Yanukovych, and the latter’s often criminal actions.
That along with glaring weaknesses in the Ukrainian Constitution (many of which aren’t fixed even years later, to my ire) meant both sides went improv.
a denial of essential services,
Because it is not the JOB of an invaded nation to UNILATERALLY SUPPLY THE ENEMY OCCUPATION.
Do you think the US government stopping all grain and steel barges going down the Potomac to Tidewater Virginia was a “denial of essential services”? Am I supposed to ignore how Tidewater Virginia at the time had risen up in (actual, more or less organic and local) revolt against the Union and had attacked it in a state of war?
Similar issues here.
The Ukrainian government has little incentive to unilaterally provide “essential services” to support a Russian occupation of its territory even if it had the resources to. For the same reason it’s gratuitously stupid to insist the KMT being bombed endlessly in Chonqqing had an obligation to continue paying the Mayor of Shanghai under Japanese occupation.
The Ukrainian government decided to call the Kremlin’s bluff by pointing out that for all its grandiose propaganda about how Russia looks after “its own” and how much nicer things were in the old days, it isn’t fit to actually administer the people and territory it conquers (especially not through warlord goons like Girkin).
a military/paramilitary axis assaulting Ukrainians for over nine years,
Yes, by the Russian government and assorted paramilitaries.
Who I remind people began shooting first, as Crimea and the Donbas showed.
and an apartheid regime
Ok Dipshit, you want to continue peddling this lie, time to prove it.
What is the Ukrainian equivalent to the Population Registration Act of 1950?
Do you even know what that is?
Ukraine’s no barrel of flowers but its President is a native Russophone of Jewish ancestry. Not exactly Stephan Bandera come again. And even the local Neo-Fascists in Right Sector happily recruit ethnic Russian Russophones.
In other words, even the local murderous totalitarians have a level of integration far beyond any, ANY institution in Apartheid South Africa.
with “benefits” in the World War Spring series conceived, perhaps, and birthed by Obama, Biden, and Decepticons from Tripoli to Cairo to Damascus to Baghdad to Kabul to Kiev.
Riiight.
Because apparently Assad and Gaddafi have absolutely no authority or autonomy, and had absolutely no choice to decide to mass murder prisoners, let reports of rape of imprisoned out, and generally turn their countries into war zones?
I despise Obama and co but this is absurd.
I think Biden has NOW returned from feathering the trail of the Maidan-gate collusion in Kiev. Oh, well. They have Biden/Maidan-gate, while we contend with the attempted Jan 6 fire and Dezi progression.
On this much it is actually true.
“It wasn’t illegal [the removal of Yanukovych] and the expansion of NATO was not mishandled.” – Art Deco
The Ukraine constitution clearly lays out the methods of removing a President before his term ends. None of those conditions were met. Simply voting him out of office isn’t one of them.
Turtler alludes to the corruption of Yanukovych and his deputies as a rational. Article 85 allows the Rada the authority to remove the deputies, but does not include the president. It specifically states: “10. removing the President of Ukraine from office in accordance with the special procedure (impeachment) established by Article 111 of this Constitution”.
The only legal method would have been to finish the agreement brokered by Germany and France which Yanukovych’s power was significantly reduced and new elections were moved up. He fled before signing the document, for reason of safety. To consider his removal a day later as a dereliction of duty is stretching it, especially considering he was still in Ukraine at that point.
As to the mishandling of the eastward expansion of NATO, I’ve linked to interviews with Michael O’Hanlon, Fiona Hill and Joshua Shifrinson– all believe aspects were mishandled. Hill said the raising the issue Ukraine’s membership in Bucharest “was not a good idea at all”…..”shouldn’t even been under consideration in Bucharest”.
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Those were the 9 mo. pregnant photos?? Yikes. Inconceivable! She must of had abdominal wall muscles of steel.
I always liked reading Jon Hall’s articles. Now he’s gone too.
______
This is fairly funny:
Men in drag conquer new frontiers: lesbian dating sites
I’ve heard the dating pool was bad, but I didn’t know it was this bad! Woof!
Words did used to have meaning, but not since leftism took root in education.
Funny except, … there was a news item recently about a rape and double homicide resulting from a lesbian dating site hookup.
Good substack about life in nursing homes and long term care facilities in the Covid era and beyond. Cruelty to the extreme.
https://gerodoc.substack.com/p/a-death-by-a-thousand-cuts
Just saw a news report on the CNBC noon show. News brief on DeSantis signing the new Fla law taking away Disney’s dictatorship over Reedy Creek. News reader said: 1) DeSantis was signing a law that gave him control, and 2) the new law was passed because Disney opposed the “don’t say gay” law.
CNBC lies. Of course, no surprise. Don’t say gay is a nasty, slanderous lie. And it’s a lie to say that DeSantis is taking control.
These news media people are nasty, ugly people. Not wrong. Not confused. Not simply expressing a different opinion. Liars and Slanderers. Purposeful and Deliberate. Lying and slandering as a political strategy. See also Jan 6 insurrection. Vile lies embraced and amplified by a vile news media.
It will continue as long as there is no cost, no pushback. And it will continue to degrade and eventually destroy America.
Fetterman rumors today are sad. If they are true, I wonder what tools Republicans might have to force D’s hand on his resignation. I have no doubt that Senate D’s and the PA governor would drag this out as long as possible if it is to their advantage to do so. With 51 senators, they don’t absolutely need his vote. I wonder if McConnell can find some scenario for which D’s would need the vote of the junior senator from PA?
Also, I understood that, if Fetterman resigned, the special election for the rest of his term would be in 2024. The rumors today suggest that the special election would be held in November of this year if Fetterman resigns more than 90 days before the election. I’m not sure which is correct. The R team probably has a better shot in November of 2023, but D’s will still be in a bad spot if they have to defend both PA Senate seats in 2024, especially with one of them being open.
Last week, visited a young mother with newborn at the hospital.
Brought to mind all the covid restrictions preventing such a visit, as well as no visits for terminally ill, or simply anybody hospitalized.
Naturally led to remembering lone wanderer on beach being arrested, six week isolations for testing positive, people stripping clothes off before entering their home after shopping, leaving canned goods from shopping in the garage for a week to de-contaminate, fines for churches allowing attendance, shut down AA and NA meetings.etc,etc,etc.
Meanwhile, our betters were allowed to ignore the rules, secretly. Or riot without fear of mass infection, openly.
I don’t mean to harp on AmericanThinker today, but this one is fascinating too.
The Solution to Ballot Fraud
The key to cleaning voter rolls, to the leftists’ dismay, is not finding dead voters. It is finding legitimate addresses — that cannot receive a ballot.
If a voter integrity team challenges a dead guy, it is challenging a person. There are decades of law, from our leftist pals, to thwart removing the dead from the voter roll. [How did that happen?]
Leftists built an entire infrastructure around protecting the guy — not the address. Knock on a couple of doors to see if Pedro lives there, and you get a visit from the Justice Department.
Addresses are a different matter.
Cnbc marketwatch cbs rots your brain
(Thats not a comprehensive list)
Has anyone else received a demand from the Bureau of the Census (bearing the imperial message on the front in a black box, “YOUR RESPONSE IS REQUIRED BY LAW”!)?
Apparently some of us lucky citizens are chosen at random to “participate” in something called the American Community Survey, to be done online. Them as cannot complete the survey online will be sent “a paper questionnaire in a few weeks.” I have half a mind to wait and make the BoC send me the paper questionnaire, just to eff with them. Lawyers on the thread: Which law is it that requires participation in this kind of survey? Inquiring deplorables want to know.
Interesting video.
Kind of answers the question: How can a woman not know that she’s pregnant?
Or perhaps this variation: How can a woman not even suspect that she’s pregnant?
(Actually, I thought the punchline was going to be “Aliens”, so I was a bit disappointed; still interesting, though.)
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
Speaking of questions…: How can “Biden” not know (or even suspect) that “he”‘s driving the country off a cliff economically?
The answer? Oh, “he” knows alright. “He” can’t just gloat about it…in public, that is…
“Subprime Auto Lender And Used Car Retailer Collapses As Distress Cycle Finally Arrives”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subprime-auto-lender-and-used-car-retailer-collapses-distress-cycle-finally-arrives
Key grafs:
“…[A]fter a lengthy period in which nothing seemed to happen, suddenly the dominoes are starting to fall, and as Bloomberg reports, used car retailer and subprime auto loan lender, American Car Center, told employees the business was closing its doors, just one day after the company had hoped to pull off a funding Hail Mary by selling a $222 million bond (it failed).
“According to Bloomberg, the used car retailer, which targets consumers regardless of their credit history (and thus targets almost entirely subprime borrowers who can’t get a loan elsewhere), said in an email to employees on Friday the firm was ceasing all operations….[Emphasis mine; Barry M.]
“…The long overdue collapse – the first of many – comes as more Americans are starting to fall behind on their car payments, and the distress cycle is rapidly accelerating. [Emphasis in original]
“Think of it as the infamous New Century domino that signaled the collapse of subprime housing… only for cars…..”
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly. Default, here we come !
I also can’t imagine how that woman did not know she was pregnant. My wife had our daughter that same year. She was pretty athletic and weighed 105 pounds at that time. When pregnant she looked like “A beachball with legs” as she described herself. Our daughter weighed 5 1/2 pounds at birth. That daughter is now a wife and mother and is taller than I am. Her mother still weighs 105 pounds.
Bauxite, what are the “Fetterman rumors today?” I haven’t seen anything.
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly.
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.
It’s just a guess, but I get the feeling many don’t even want to think about the prices they are paying for things. And they don’t. That’s not a good thing, if true.
“Speaking of questions…: How can “Biden” not know (or even suspect) that “he”‘s driving the country off a cliff economically?”
Joe may only be exposed to news favorable to him. Perfect example is him bragging about gas prices coming down and perhaps being un aware they are still a dollar more than during Trump. Not as if he ever pumps gas or pays for it.
Never watched Tucker to see what the big deal is, unaware of Ace, Insta, Neo, or any other center/ right source of info.
“TommyJay on February 27, 2023 at 4:55 pm said:
Credit card debt is also climbing rapidly.
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.”
I get 2% from the bank on purchases. Always pay entire balance when due. Don’t have a bunch of change and one dollar bills hanging around anymore. Use cash for tips, gas, and beggers mostly.
Real downside is for young consumers. Many pay no attention to, and have no idea of, what things cost.
Paycheck auto deposit, slide the credit card, and done. Goes along with ask young ones what they paid in federal taxes. They will say they didn’t pay, they got money back. Oblivious to fact that they gave govt. thousands through withholding.
Griffin, Fullmoon and others:
This happen in India when the pandemic shutdown began:
Migrant workers sprayed with disinfectant in India
Given that the migrants in the video are most likely lower caste played a part in the treatment (and their apparent submissive tolerance of such nasty treatment; lower castes in India that fight back could end up dead) – this wouldn’t happen to those who are Brahmin caste, and the Brahmin caste wouldn’t tolerate it.
Aside from the obvious case of the likes of Bull Connor, I like to think that our second amendment helps to minimize this kind of nasty behavior here in the US. (Condoleezza Rice mentions in her book, Extraordinary, Ordinary People: A Memoir of Family, that her father and other men in their neighborhood sat on their front porches with their shotguns all night and that kept the Klan away from their middle class black neighborhood when the idiots were running around in white sheets terrorizing black neighborhoods.)
History is filled with events that shows fear leads people to do all sorts of wild things.
Mike K:
A small percentage of pregnant women just don’t “show,” or don’t show much. It is hard to believe but it seems to be the case.
Kate – There was a rumor today that Fetterman is permanently incapacitated and that Democrats were keeping him in office past a deadline that would push out the special election to replace him, thereby extending the term of whover the PA governor appoints to replace him.
Frankly, I’m skeptical. The correspondent reporting the rumor appears to be incorrect about the special election deadline date.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see what happens if D’s actually need Fetterman’s vote while he recovers.
they have shown so much contempt for the institutions of govt, why shouldn’t we suspect the worse, of the golem they installed in the senate, and those who pull his strings,
Why only the 1 child?
I’ve out and about more than usual lately, and cash usage seems to have dropped off a cliff in favor of plastic. Myself included, except for a few instances.
TommyJay:
I’m sure that’s true, but there also seems to be a squeeze coming from the banks, the treasury and some merchants to eliminate cash.
During Covid I kept running into signs about how there was a shortage of coins so don’t ask for them. But what really was happening was that the treasury was limiting coins intentionally on the pretext of Covid protection from infectious coins (fomites is the technical term).
Some merchants are happier to pay the credit charge service than keep cash around. (It also speeds up transactions and doesn’t burden current cashiers who seem to have more trouble making change than previous generations.)
Credit cards leave a digital trail and are great for governmental control. I do believe there is a long-term goal to eliminate cash.
miguel cervantes – You’re not wrong. D’s in general and Fetterman in particular have lied about his health repeatedly.
You can lie and dissemble about a candidate/office holder’s health, or you can complain when people suspect that you may be lying and dissembling about a candidiate/office holder’s health, but you can’t do both. . . at least not legitimately.
huxley,
A few days ago you mentioned (on a different thread) that you had read something about language instruction. Part of the point that the typical, U.S. classroom method stinks (no argument there), but you seemed to also conclude that speaking didn’t deliver much benefit. Reading and listening were most important.
I disagree. Vehemently. I encourage you to find a way to speak to native speakers as often as possible, even if you have to pay them (there are plenty of such services over the Internet). And insist they use no English, no matter how much you may struggle to find a word or words. Even if you don’t get many opportunities with native speakers talk to yourself, out loud, speak French whenever you can, as often as you can.
I studied Latin in College. Fairly rigorously. I was an A student. It was nearly all reading, vocabulary, grammar. In my last year I translated Virgil’s Aeneid. The day I left class I could barely speak any Latin, except for quotes I had memorized. I had no facility with the language. I could read a great deal. My thought process with a Latin sentence was like solving a puzzle.
Later, when I met my wife I became determined to learn her first language, the language she spoke with her family; German. I tried a lot of different methods (and reading and listening are important), but speaking opened entirely different pathways in my brain than Latin ever did. I put post-it notes all over our house with German vocabulary and every time I did something I’d say a sentence about it out loud. As I shaved and looked in the mirror with the “Spiegel” post it note on it I’d make up silly German songs about shaving. I’d talk to our cats in German. When I went for a jog I’d breathe out sentences about the cars passing by, the weather that day…
You know how a lot of people were forced to take piano lessons for years and can play some songs only if the sheet music is right in front of them? And some people can sit in with a band and play? The first is me with Latin. The second is me with German. It is two different skill sets. Forge the neural networks that do both, especially speech! Speech forces you to learn on fly and adapt and get very creative. That nervous energy from having to work it out in real time with native speakers stimulates memorization. A week speaking only French with other French speakers is as good as six months of taking notes in a classroom.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Great to strike sparks with you! I’m fascinated with these issues.
First, I don’t conclude that speaking doesn’t deliver much benefit. I’m repeating the claim of the Input Hypothesis linguists, primarily Steve Krashen. I don’t know it is true.
However, I do like the idea that speaking is not central to acquiring language. Steve Kaufmann (same initials, different guy) is my current polyglot language learning guru. His practice is to defer speaking until he has had 3-6 months of reading/listening and acquired 2000-3000 words of vocabulary. Then, he says, speaking comes naturally.
I wouldn’t find the “nervous energy” from speaking in real time useful. I would find it quite stressful. I don’t have anything I want to say yet. However, I believe I will in a few months.
Currently I’m making good progress. Two months in and I estimate I’m reading French at the 4th/5th grade level with a vocabulary of 1000+ words. At the moment I’m reading/listening to Edgar Allen Poe’s “The Black Cat” in French. Riveting! I have to look up a lot of words up and work out the sentence but I’m doing it and enjoying it.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Also, learning the language of one’s lover is the all-time best scenario for language acquisition!
huxley,
Impressive! Sounds like you’re making good progress. Well done!
I don’t recall hearing of Kaufmann, but other polyglots I’ve studied really stress what I stumbled onto; start using it, in public, right away.
If I remember, my actual German progression was probably similar to what Kaufmann recommends; I don’t think I did speak much until I knew 2,000 words, but that didn’t take long. I probably was struggling without much speaking for the first 3 – 6 months. However, once I started communicating verbally it accelerated my learning immensely. And I disagree about being nervous. You need to learn to manage that and put it aside. It’s easy to fall into a trap of trying to speak perfect, grammatic French (I started out there with German). I was nervous and slow and it was frustrating for folks trying to speak with me.
Then I thought of all the non-native English speakers I know who often butcher English grammar and vocabulary while having great conversations. I realized communication is about getting one’s point across; not passing a grammar exam.
I do not agree that speaking comes naturally without A LOT of speaking.
If you spend 3 months reading song lyrics can you sing?
Also, regarding polyglots, once one cracks the code with one foreign language, subsequent language learning comes much faster. I follow something like Kaufmann’s method, as you describe it, when going to foreign, non-German or English speaking countries. I’ll memorize about 15 verbs and learn to conjugate them; to be, to hold, to purchase, to eat, to want… I learn their alphabet and how to pronounce it. I learn how to count. I learn about 40 or 50 adjectives and adverbs and their opposites (I memorize them in pairs; hot/cold, fast/slow…). Then I learn as many nouns as I can; starting with the most needed; hotel, taxi, train, money, foods, directions…
And I can generally get around; speaking with natives in that land regarding the essentials. But it’s because I cracked the code once and my brain knows what to do now.
How did you learn your first language? Did you know what an adjective was when you were 3? Did you know about verb conjugation? Did you read Edgar Allen Poe when you were 4? No. You listened and repeated. It worked for you with English. Why not with French?
huxley @ 10:12pm,
Yes. It was a very happy impetus.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Actually, there is research, which Krashen and Kaufmann cite, that children, who speak later than other children, catch up quickly when they do start speaking.
So, deferring speaking is not a terrible thing for children and may not be for adults.
Krashen and Kaufmann are on your side when it comes to grammar (and Edgar Allen Poe). However, they consider that listening (input) is primary and speech (output) minimally so for acquiring language.
There have been a ton of language learning theories and fashions over the past few centuries which have come and gone.
Linguists don’t know the *best* way to learn language. My impression is we are so hard-wired to learn language that everything works if you keep at it.
So motivation is arguably the key factor. Krashen and Kaufmann emphasize it.
Re: Learning subsequent languages is easier
Rufus:
That’s what I hear. I’m so encouraged by my French experience, I’m thinking of taking on another language (or more) later..
I notice now that when I encounter stray bits of Spanish text they don’t look nearly so mysterious.
Open thread, but not Sunday
What the war on Ukraine should be teaching the US military.
cdr salamander
Monday, February 27, 2023
One Year in the Russo-Ukrainian War: the Big Pixels
https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2023/02/one-year-in-russo-ukrainian-war-big.html
cdr salamander has seven concise points:
“1. Short-War Snake Oil Salesmen are Worthy of Little but Scorn:
2. You Must Have a Sovereign Military-Industrial Complex
3. Deep Magazines, Running Production Lines, and Distributed Risk:
4. Range Matters:
5. Cutting Edge is a Mirage:
6. Diversity Matters:
7. Your Military May be Lying to You:”
I do not agree that speaking comes naturally without A LOT of speaking.
Rufus:
Kaufmann would agree. His point is that *starting* to speak comes naturally when one has a base level of vocabulary and language structure.
As opposed to being required to leap to one’s feet in class and declare one’s name and pronouns on the very first day.
Rufus,
To be, to hold, to buy, to eat, to want…
I’m curious. What are the other 10?
OM, I identify with CDR S on nearly everything.
Especially:
“7. Your Military May be Lying to You:”
Oh yeah. Vietnam was an example. Ops reports massaged up the chain of command. By the time they reached the top, all was just fine.
“4. Range Matters:”
Yep. Carrier warfare is only useful if the enemy has no long-range missiles or air power. With the anti-ship missiles now available, the carrier, to be safe, must operate at such a distance that its airplanes can’t reach the enemy targets. Thus, rendering them useless. Navl air does not want to admit this. 🙁
But not so much here:
“5. Cutting Edge is a Mirage:”
I disagree. Smart, high-tech weapons are changing the face of war. Sucha jump in effectiveness from the accuracy of the iron bombs we dropped in Vietnam in the 1960s to the Walleye bombs that the Israeli Air Force used on Egypt in 1973. And the weapons are much better today. We could maintain relatively small forces in Afghanistan and Iraq because we held such a big technological edge.
Russia and Ukraine are using WWII tactics with smart weapons thrown in. Mass, armor and infantry can’t take and hold ground without terrible losses. Sustained advances aren’t happening.
Russia seems to be slowly destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure with long range missiles. An evil strategy. How many Patriot batteries would it take to stop that? I have no answer.
This interview isn’t noteworthy because Fiona Hill reveals some new strategy for negotiations with Russia, but more because it reveals how worthless these foreign policy experts really are.
According to her, our policy approach to Russia in 2007 saying Ukraine and Georgia could join NATO at some later date was a mistake. And not for the reasons you might expect.
We need to negotiate, but without making any concessions to Russia on territory.
We need to think new thoughts.
The UN needs to be more engaged, not the security council, because the world doesn’t trust the US. How they could negotiate an end when territory won’t be involved she doesn’t say.
I thought she might have a severe case of whiplash by the end of it. Either she’s a genius beyond my feeble comprehension, or an idiot.
She did say absolute victory over Russia is not possible, so there is that.
Fiona Hill: Absolute victory over Russia is not possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKNeyCIpfs4
Molly Brown,
I’d have to look for my business travel notebooks. I haven’t traveled internationally for a few years. I also have a list of “helper” words. I think there are about 15 of this; prepositions, articles… It’s really helpful that most languages (other than English) are phonetic. If you drill their alphabet and pronunciation you can pick up a lot when “in country.” Words are everywhere.
Regarding the verbs; I’m sure you know that the most used are often irregular, which makes learning them require more time; to be, to have, to do.
Other verbs; to drink, to take in a vehicle (drive, convey) (taxi, train) (I don’t know of any language other than English where the verb “to take” serves that purpose, to know, to say/speak, to ask, to read, to purchase/buy.
Also the 5 Ws (who, what, when, where, why) and how. Man, woman. This, that.
“What cost that?” (and point). Takes minutes to learn and comes in handy. Especially if you’ve also learned something about their numbers.
And the first words to learn are “thank you,” “please,” and “Excuse me, do you speak English.”
huxley,
Krashen and Kaufmann may be correct, they certainly know the subject far beyond my abilities, but regardless, why not speak? If you’re reading Poe’s “The Cask of Amontillado” why not read it aloud? What’s the harm? It’s good practice for your facial muscles and tongue. And you’ll find words you’re having difficulty pronouncing and you can work on them, then and there.
If you had to give a speech in front of 300 people you’d be nervous. In order to lessen the nerves on speech day you’d practice saying it aloud many times, even in front of a mirror. The more you speak, even 3 word sentences, the more comfortable you get.
Substitution drills. Subject, verb, object. “He eats cake.” “He eats bread.” “He eats a cookie.” “She eats cake.” “She eats bread.” “She eats a cookie.” “We eat cake…” “They eat cookies…”
Saying such things out loud was a huge help for me for getting used to the sounds. After awhile I no longer had to remember the first person plural form of a verb, if the subject of the sentence was “we” any other form of the verb “sounded” wrong. The right tense would come out of my mouth without thinking of the grammar.
@ Rufus > “Saying such things out loud was a huge help for me for getting used to the sounds. After awhile I no longer had to remember the first person plural form of a verb, if the subject of the sentence was “we” any other form of the verb “sounded” wrong. The right tense would come out of my mouth without thinking of the grammar.”
If only some of our native English speakers could do so as well.
I have given up in despair at the number of internet pundits who do not (and maybe cannot) use correct grammar, although that is in writing more than speaking – because I don’t listen to videos or talking heads anymore.
Why can’t they “hear” that what they are saying / writing is wrong?
They had too many bad examples in their formative years of learning the language, IMO. It’s a cascade of ignorance (shows up in word choice and idiom mangling also).
FWIW, I agree with you that learners should start speaking as soon as they can manage something close to the correct pronunciation, even if it’s just reading or reciting “set phrases” as you recommend.
Muscle memory (aka brain behavior) is very important in language, as it is in singing or playing musical instruments, or practicing any skill or sport.
From the “Audacity of Hope” Files…
“New Jersey man attempted to board plane with handguns, AR-15, Taser, fake US Marshal badge”—
https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-man-attempted-board-plane-handguns-ar-15-taser-fake-us-marshal-badge
And some much-needed comic relief in these bizarre, benighted times…(with—whom else—Georgia’s own Stacey Abrams)…
“Why Is Election Denier Stacey Abrams Overseeing Elections In Nigeria?”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-election-denier-stacey-abrams-overseeing-elections-nigeria
That’s right! America’s ambassador to the world for electoral integrity! (“Biden”-style election integrity, that is…)
OTOH, with Jimmy Carter kinda sidelined, “Biden” had to send SOMEBODY…
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120921005758/en/Carter-States-That-the-Election-Process-in-Venezuela-is-%E2%80%9Cthe-Best-in-the-World%E2%80%9D
https://www.commentary.org/ben-cohen/jimmy-carter-gives-seal-of-approval-to-venezuela-election/
Two posts by Douglas Murray that show just how far off kilter the Left has gone.
As if we needed more evidence.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-you-really-be-radicalised-by-great-british-railway-journeys/
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-shakespeare-farright-now/
The Left’s idea of acceptable literature is more like this (Calvin & Hobbes)
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA17SdCF.img?w=800&h=415&q=60&m=2&f=jpg
Brian E:
cdrsalamander has discussed carrier operations against Xi land; the short range of carrier strike assets (planes) and the threat posed by Xi’s missiles. Lets just say that the vulnerabilities of the USN are recognized but Xi doesn’t have magic new technology either. It ain’t the 1930s vis a vi the USN and the IJN.
Thanks for the Douglas Murray links, AesopFan. Mr. Murray is brilliant and fearless. A courageous defender of freedom.
AesopFan,
In that comic Calvin reminded me of the youtube of “Professor” Vincent Lloyd discussing race with Messrs. Loury and McWhorter that someone here recently shared.
f you’re reading Poe’s “The Cask of Amontillado” why not read it aloud? What’s the harm? It’s good practice for your facial muscles and tongue. And you’ll find words you’re having difficulty pronouncing and you can work on them, then and there.
Rufus T. Firefly:
I do. My routine is to go through a text sentence by sentence:
* I read the text to get an idea of what’s going on.
* If I have an audio file, I listen to that 2-3 times. If I don’t, I use Google Translate to hear the text.
* I may try to speak the text a few times.
* I go through the sentence word by word, looking up the words I don’t know or am not sure of. I mark those I’m not getting.
* I work out the sentence structure. Where are the subject, verb and objects? (I can get lost if the clauses are nested deeply.)
* I come up with my best attempt at translation.
* I compare that with an official translation and either pat myself on the back or figure out where I went wrong.
* Then I go back and take several cracks at listening and speaking the text aloud (subvocally if I’m in a cafe.)
* I also consult a thin grammar book, as Kaufmann recommends, if I’m really confused or I notice a pattern and want to check it.
It takes a while, but that’s OK. I pick texts which hold my interest and are exciting challenges. Time passes quickly.
I didnt want to say i told you so
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11801549/Russia-Ukraine-war-Kyiv-admits-situation-extremely-tense-Putin-steps-assault-Bakhmut.html
Miguel:
Pnaic Whores got to sell clicks, Bakhmut may finally fall to Vlad. Or maybe not. Bakhmut isn’t the key to the entire Donbas or Ukraine.
You told who, what, again?
All the best to you, huxley. Glad you are enjoying the process and I hope you achieve your goals!
(I’m a big advocate of learning a musical instrument and a foreign language simply for what one learns about learning in the process. It’s also good to do something that is physical; riding a unicycle, juggling, balance, yoga, rope jumping tricks, tumbling, tai chi, running a mile under a certain time, hitting a certain number of consecutive free throws without missing, darts, bowling, billiards… Something that requires measurable improvement in physical dexterity. Mastering physical challenges is also great for the brain!)
This was reported on the ISW website, which has been providing maps of the frontlines of the Ukraine war in eastern Ukraine:
“UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms. The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however. The Wall Street Journal contrasted these officials’ private reservations with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which did not mention peace negotiations—and with Central and Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.”
This mapping is being led by Fred Kagan.
Previously, officials in the EU have indicated the war will be over by the end of summer. Could this mean Europe will give Ukraine a chance to mount a counteroffensive this late spring/summer, regain territory, and hopefully convince Russia to accept some limited territorial gains and some security guarantees for Ukraine, but short of NATO membership?
In the coverage of Ukraine-Russia war, I try and get European perspective from sources such as DW News (German public broadcasting), France 24 and Sky News.
“We underestimated how much antipathy to NATO’s existence there was in Russia” – US ambassador Stephen Pifer (1998-2000)
This is a common theme amongst our foreign policy community. Whether it’s Pifer or Fiona Hill or John Bolton, the message is the same– mistakes were made. Putin made it very clear in 2007-08. We didn’t believe him. He made it crystal clear in Dec. 2021. We believed him, but then ignored him saying bad things would happen if Russia entered Ukraine.
om wonders why I’m so focused on the events surrounding the illegal overthrow of pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Because these events and our clumsy handling of NATO expansion in the late 90’s and onward have created the dynamic that’s playing out now.
Turtler makes the point that these countries sought out membership to NATO, but it’s also true we had no obligations to accept them and could have prevented their membership. Could we have given them security assurances while not allowing NATO military hardware to move into these countries? Very possibly.
Whatever the outcome of this conflict, it’s likely we’ll have to come up with some arrangement like that. Given the influence of militaristic nationalist political influences in Ukraine at this point, we should stop short of NATO membership. It’s very possible they would trigger future hostilities with Russia, if any territory in the east or south is ceded to Russia as part of a peace plan.
Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM
Brain E:
I’m not puzzled at all about your fixation with Yanukivitch; “its all you got.”
Obstinacy. You be you.
Brian E
The Slavic Spring is a coup, a denial of essential services, a military/paramilitary axis assaulting Ukrainians for over nine years, and an apartheid regime with “benefits” in the World War Spring series conceived, perhaps, and birthed by Obama, Biden, and Decepticons from Tripoli to Cairo to Damascus to Baghdad to Kabul to Kiev. I think Biden has NOW returned from feathering the trail of the Maidan-gate collusion in Kiev. Oh, well. They have Biden/Maidan-gate, while we contend with the attempted Jan 6 fire and Dezi progression.
n.n.
How unique is the Russophile view of Ukrainian affairs and recent history.
“Denial of services,” LOL.
You understand your adversary not the way you wish but how he actually is
Miguel:
And our adversary is Ukraine, not Russia or China? Otay, Senor.
All the best to you, huxley. Glad you are enjoying the process and I hope you achieve your goals!
Rufus T. Firefly:
Thanks, especially coming from someone who has walked the path ahead of me.
I am pleased with my progress through the novice phase, but it has become clearer what a long-term undertaking this is and one that is never truly completed.
In case you are curious about the Input Hypothesis, here’s a decent web article on Krashen excerpted for output:
__________________________________
But what about output? Aren’t speaking and writing important, too?
There actually is a comprehensible output hypothesis, proposed by another linguist named Merrill Swain. She argues that some language learning occurs when a learner produces output and notices a gap in their language ability (How do I say that word again?). They may then change their output approach, and in so doing, develop their language ability.
Swain acknowledges that this cannot explain all language acquisition, but it may explain some language acquisition.
Krashen disagrees and provides several responses. Three of his arguments are:
* That output is relatively rare in language learning. Language learners do not speak and write nearly as much as they listen or read.
* He provides evidence that some individuals achieve significant language acquisition without much output.
* There is a lack of direct evidence supporting this hypothesis.
He concludes,
“Given the consistent evidence for comprehensible input, and the failure of other means of developing language competence, providing more comprehensible input seems to be a more reasonable strategy than increasing output [for language learning].”
–Ramsay Lewis, “What Is Comprehensible Input and Why Does It Matter for Language Learning?”
https://www.leonardoenglish.com/blog/comprehensible-input
om wonders why I’m so focused on the events surrounding the illegal overthrow of pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Because these events and our clumsy handling of NATO expansion in the late 90’s and onward have created the dynamic that’s playing out now.
It wasn’t illegal and the expansion of NATO was not mishandled.
@n.n.
That’s literally the only thing you listed that is at least SOMEWHAT defensible , and even that ignores the importance of the Ukrainian Parliament, its divides with the executive under Yanukovych, and the latter’s often criminal actions.
That along with glaring weaknesses in the Ukrainian Constitution (many of which aren’t fixed even years later, to my ire) meant both sides went improv.
Because it is not the JOB of an invaded nation to UNILATERALLY SUPPLY THE ENEMY OCCUPATION.
Do you think the US government stopping all grain and steel barges going down the Potomac to Tidewater Virginia was a “denial of essential services”? Am I supposed to ignore how Tidewater Virginia at the time had risen up in (actual, more or less organic and local) revolt against the Union and had attacked it in a state of war?
Similar issues here.
The Ukrainian government has little incentive to unilaterally provide “essential services” to support a Russian occupation of its territory even if it had the resources to. For the same reason it’s gratuitously stupid to insist the KMT being bombed endlessly in Chonqqing had an obligation to continue paying the Mayor of Shanghai under Japanese occupation.
The Ukrainian government decided to call the Kremlin’s bluff by pointing out that for all its grandiose propaganda about how Russia looks after “its own” and how much nicer things were in the old days, it isn’t fit to actually administer the people and territory it conquers (especially not through warlord goons like Girkin).
Yes, by the Russian government and assorted paramilitaries.
Who I remind people began shooting first, as Crimea and the Donbas showed.
Ok Dipshit, you want to continue peddling this lie, time to prove it.
What is the Ukrainian equivalent to the Population Registration Act of 1950?
Do you even know what that is?
Ukraine’s no barrel of flowers but its President is a native Russophone of Jewish ancestry. Not exactly Stephan Bandera come again. And even the local Neo-Fascists in Right Sector happily recruit ethnic Russian Russophones.
In other words, even the local murderous totalitarians have a level of integration far beyond any, ANY institution in Apartheid South Africa.
Riiight.
Because apparently Assad and Gaddafi have absolutely no authority or autonomy, and had absolutely no choice to decide to mass murder prisoners, let reports of rape of imprisoned out, and generally turn their countries into war zones?
I despise Obama and co but this is absurd.
On this much it is actually true.
“It wasn’t illegal [the removal of Yanukovych] and the expansion of NATO was not mishandled.” – Art Deco
The Ukraine constitution clearly lays out the methods of removing a President before his term ends. None of those conditions were met. Simply voting him out of office isn’t one of them.
Turtler alludes to the corruption of Yanukovych and his deputies as a rational. Article 85 allows the Rada the authority to remove the deputies, but does not include the president. It specifically states: “10. removing the President of Ukraine from office in accordance with the special procedure (impeachment) established by Article 111 of this Constitution”.
The only legal method would have been to finish the agreement brokered by Germany and France which Yanukovych’s power was significantly reduced and new elections were moved up. He fled before signing the document, for reason of safety. To consider his removal a day later as a dereliction of duty is stretching it, especially considering he was still in Ukraine at that point.
As to the mishandling of the eastward expansion of NATO, I’ve linked to interviews with Michael O’Hanlon, Fiona Hill and Joshua Shifrinson– all believe aspects were mishandled. Hill said the raising the issue Ukraine’s membership in Bucharest “was not a good idea at all”…..”shouldn’t even been under consideration in Bucharest”.