Sinema becomes an Independent
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.
So how is it that her defection delivers a “jolt” to the Democrats? Answer: it doesn’t.
She says:
“I don’t anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure,” Sinema said, adding that some of the exact mechanics of how her switch affects the chamber is “a question for Chuck Schumer … I intend to show up to work, do the same work that I always do. I just intend to show up to work as an independent.”
It’s a labeling issue.
Notice that Sinema made this announcement after the Georgia runoff. I think that was a tactical move because she didn’t want Republicans to get more energized to vote for Walker. She denies it, although she said she was “delighted” by Warnock’s win.
Here’s another reason she may have done this:
Even before her party switch, she faced rumblings of a primary challenge in 2024 from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Becoming an independent will avoid a head-to-head primary against Gallego or another progressive, should she seek reelection.
Sinema is definitely one of the better Democrats, but she’s a Democrat as long as she caucuses with them. What would really mean something is if Manchin became a Republican. But I see only a .000001% chance that he will.
“What would really mean something is if Manchin became a Republican. But I see only a .000001% chance that he will.”
Neo, you are way overestimating the chance that Manchin will become a Republican.
I think you’re too skeptical, Neo. I would put it at a .0001% chance
The vile name calling coming Sinema’s way after her announcement from all sorts on the left and other Ds, may have some effect on her outlook. Maybe she has a thick skin, but as usual being an apostate in the left/D religion leads to some ugly reactions.
Becoming an independent will avoid a head-to-head primary…
It’s a shrewd counter-move to a potential primary by Sinema: she’s signaling to Democrat leadership that she’s willing to burn down the barn by splitting the votes between Democrat and Was-Democrat in 2024 to pretty much guarantee a Republican takes the seat.
She’ll still vote along with Schumer 99.9% of the time so this really doesn’t matter beyond the press claiming that her voting for a Democrat bill makes it bipartisan.
So, three-way Senate race in Arizona in 2024.
If Manchin wants to run, he ought to switch, but perhaps he’d rather retire instead.
Manchin might switch, but not now. He’ll wait to see how it looks going into 2024. If he sees a big GOP win (with e.g. DeSantis) he’ll switch. Or perhaps wait till after a GOP win and Senate control, then switch e.g. like Richard Shelby.
Even typing “Manchin” makes me feel like I need to disinfect.
Well, her move made me smile if just to show that predicting the future is not as easy as crowing about one’s own hindsight.
Manchin’s seat is in West Virginia, not the US at large. He must win there in 2024 if he runs.
She looked around at the other female senators in her party: Warren, Hirono, Murray et al and said to herself “what am I doing with this bunch of screeching harpies?”
In all seriousness, even though I disagree with her almost entirely, she doesn’t come off as being angry or unreasonable. They say that the job of freshman senators is to vote the way their party leader tells them to, and she may just reached the point where she wanted to tune Chuck Schumer out and not have to take his phone calls.
“Becoming an independent will avoid a head-to-head primary…” neo
Yes, self-interest was her motivation.
“She’ll still vote along with Schumer 99.9% of the time” Dwaz
If he had the slghtest doubt of her loyalty, Schumer would never have allowed her to keep her important committee post.
Yes, Geoffrey, she has been so loyal to Schumer for her entire career in the Senate. (farce)
Someone asked her why she didn’t switch to the Republican party about 8 months back. Her response was, “They wouldn’t have me.” I presume she thinks that because she’s pro choice, and bisexual.
I’m not so sure. I will ask around at the next legislative district meeting. That crowd is about as populist Republican as it gets, meaning they care about guns, borders, military issues, and taxes. Do they care about abortion, especially now that Roe is gone? I have my suspicions.
As for bisexuality, that might get an eye roll, but it would not be a deal killer. Every one of them would eagerly vote for Ric Grennell.
If Schumer had not agreed to continue her committee assignments, she would have voted for McConnell for Senate leader, and then Schumer would lose the majority position on all the committees. Currently, they share. So he couldn’t afford to cut her.
Gordon Scott:
Actually, she probably meant because except for a couple of issues like the filibuster, she votes with the Democrats very very consistently. I am almost certain the GOP would welcome her if her defection gave them majority control. Right now it wouldn’t unless Manchin came along for the ride.
The move doesn’t change much if anything in the current Senate and I think it’s clear she did this for her future political viability. I’m not so sure this helps her though. She avoids losing in the primary but are her odds better in the general in a three way race with a more traditional lefty and a presumably conservative Republican?
Still … isn’t Sinema’s move a net positive for our side?
I understand that it’s complicated and it doesn’t mean the Red Sea has parted and Moses is now leading us out of Egypt to the Promised Land.
I come from the Tony Robbins/Jordan Peterson school in which one celebrates small victories along the way.
If he had the slightest doubt of her loyalty, Schumer would never have allowed her to keep her important committee post.
Exactly. The primary issue is most probable.
Maybe Kyrsten and Tulsi can be the nucleous of a new neither fully leftist-socialist Democrat nor rightist-MAGA Republican party.
This puts Sinema in the drivers seat on another interesting issue. There has been talk that the Dems wish to unburden themselves of Biden. But if he were to resign (25 amendment talk is foolish his wife wouldn’t let him exit that way, and the House wouldn’t cooperate if Biden fought back and would gleefully let the Dems sit and stew) then Harris is president. But she needs to nominate a VP, which must pass the Senate by a majority and Harris as president can NOT provide the tie breaker at that point (no longer being the Vice President). Its 51-49, but you MUST get Sinema’s vote for that otherwise the vote is 50 – 50 (unless a RINO defects) and the next in line is a Republican until Jan 3, 2024 at a minimum. Of course she could do that even if she were a Democrat, but this makes it VERY clear who they need to persuade.