Is Liz Truss aleady on the way out?
If so, that was quick.
In six short weeks, Liz Truss has succeeded in angering all wings of her party. Most now agree she can’t fight the next election.
Britain’s latest prime minister, who won a Tory leadership contest with promises of tax cuts and “growth, growth, growth,” by Friday had driven supporters on the Tory right to send furious WhatsApp messages bemoaning her latest U-turn on corporation tax as more of her planned budget crumbled.
“I’ve never known the atmosphere to be as febrile as it is at the moment,” one veteran Tory MP who backed Truss in the leadership contest said. Another MP who supported her said: “It feels like the end. I think she’ll be gone next week.”
Tory MPs began casting around wildly for mechanisms to oust Truss and candidates to replace her. While party rules make that complicated, rules can be changed and Truss’ removal is fast becoming a question of when, not if.
From what I’m reading, Truss seems to have projected a combination of weakness and incompetence, as well as fear and indecision. Not a great combination. I think very few Western leaders are up to meeting the multiple crises we’ve been facing lately, but Truss is apparently particularly unready.
Here are some of the details:
Two weeks ago the PM said she was “committed” to the triple lock [definition here]”, so payments rise by whatever is higher: prices, average earnings or 2.5%.
But her spokesman has now said she was “not making any commitments” on government spending.
It comes after ditching flagship tax cuts announced in the mini-budget.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s move to tear up most of last month’s mini-budget announcements has reassured investors, but left Ms Truss battling to salvage her authority.
A decision on what to do with pensions from next April has not yet been made, and would normally be expected this autumn.
The probable replacement:
A group of Tory MPs have settled on the idea of a joint ticket of Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak to take over from Truss. “Rishi and Penny got over two-thirds of the parliamentary party between them on the final MPs ballot,” one Tory rebel organizer said. “You have a critical mass already backing them.”
The article mentions what I’d already suspected, that ousting Truss this year would make her the shortest ever British PM. It’s by no means clear that will happen, however. Truss does have some supporters, or at least some people who are not in favor of replacing her so soon.
The polls indicate that a general election now would result in a huge Labour victory, and people are assuming that whenever it does come (see the rules on that) it will definitely feature a turnover to a Labour government. Of course, the fact that the current Tory party isn’t providing competent leadership does not mean that Labour would do any better at all. But this is the way of politics: when one party sinks the other rises, and the results can sometimes be even worse.
Durham lost another one. Not looking good for him at all. Of course a DC jury won’t convict anyone he brings to trial. No Justice left in America.
She is certainly no Thatcher. When the “Conservatives” over threw her they lost their reason for being.
I thought so zbe delivered three landlides for them
The Tories are absolutely atrocious; the only thing to be said for them is that they are marginally less horrid than Labour, who would certainly win should a general election be held soon. Truss is weak and seems incompetent, nor has she done anything whatsoever to address Britain’s most urgent problem, which is, without question, mass immigration. Across the channel, the French may finally be awakening on this issue since the unspeakable torture and murder, in Paris a few days ago, of a sweet twelve-year old girl (#Lola on Twitter) by four Algerian Muslims living in France illegally.
SHIREHOME:
There are many many reasons these cases are going nowhere in terms of convictions, and the vast majority are not Durham’s fault. But I’m convinced that Durham’s goal at this point is merely to put the evidence out there for the public to see. Only problem is, the deck is stacked against him in that regard, too, because of the fact that the MSM has become a propaganda machine for the perps.
“But I’m convinced that Durham’s goal at this point is merely to put the evidence out there for the public to see.”
Then he’s a fool, like Barr, thinking we just need to get rid of a few gosh darn bad apples and then everything will be fine.
It’s actually similar to the apparent problem in Britain where the Tories, both cultural and socially, seem simply incapable of acknowledging or addressing the problems facing the country. If Labor hadn’t gone out of its way to antagonize the British public, they’d have regained power ages ago.
This is how advanced societies collapse. The people inside the institutions of power refuse to recognize the problems they face because it requires admitting their own errors and shortcomings, but they also fight like hell to prevent anyone from outside the institutions from getting the power to do anything.
Mike
The best candidate was the one that was winnowed out the black. Candidate she was a woman of conviction
MBunge:
I just put up a post on the Danchenko verdict where I explain further about the legal obstacles, Durham, and my point of view.
Cameron was the very model of a wet like heseltine and hurd (they were accurated depictef in thr iron lady)
“This is how advanced societies collapse. The people inside the institutions of power refuse to recognize the problems they face because it requires admitting their own errors and shortcomings, but they also fight like hell to prevent anyone from outside the institutions from getting the power to do anything.” Mike
Bingo. But… the officials that enable the continence of the societal disfunction are elected. They are symtomatic not causal.
Miguel cervantes,
“The best candidate was the one that was winnowed out the black. Candidate she was a woman of conviction.”
The absolute last circumstance corrupt political institutions wish to see manifest is the elevation to leadership of a person with principled convictions. Such is an anathema to them.
So many carbage peoplr rise through the ranks because of their corrupt and evil ways
It is rather amazing when you look around the world at the absolutely abysmal quality of our leaders or rather the people who purport to be out leaders. I don’t think Liz Truss has any more say in the direction of the British government than Joe Biden has in our government. Neither one was chosen in anything that could be called a fair and transparent process. They were both just sort of chosen for being the least objectionable or most malleable. It would be nice to know who is really running things but I guess that would be too much to ask.
She had a bad program, and is now flailing about because the bond market rapped the government on the knuckles.
I doubt anyone in the British establishment has an interest in a satisfactory program, which would include immigration restriction, free speech and an end to abuses inflicted by law enforcement and school bureaucrats on dissenters, restoration of price stability through open-market operations, tax simplification, replacement of a selection of welfare programs with wage subsidies, and a multi-year program of tax increases and spending cuts to balance the budget.
Neither one was chosen in anything that could be called a fair and transparent process.
I don’t think there’s an issue with the process by which Liz Truss was chosen. The problem is the culture of the Conservative Party, especially in parliament.
Neo hit the nail on the head: “Truss seems to have projected a combination of weakness and incompetence, as well as fear and indecision. Not a great combination.” But a combination favored by Paul Ryan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush– not to mention Obama and Brandon.
Why is it so hard for the right to coalesce behind someone who vaguely resembles Ronald Reagan (hint: not Trump)–perhaps Desantis? Kristi Noem, Marco Rubio and Mitt Romney (not to mention John McCain (Go Navy!)) turned out to be squishy when put to the test. Principled conservatism works–why not try it again? Good policy makes for good politics.
I saw where some wag has a webcam pointed at a small table. On the table is a framed photo of Truss and a head of lettuce.
He’s accepting wagers on which will be gone first …
“Why is it so hard for the right to coalesce behind someone who vaguely resembles Ronald Reagan (hint: not Trump)–perhaps Desantis?”
DeSantis at this point is more like Trump than Reagan. And maybe Republicans should stop looking 40 years in the past for examples of how to do politics today. The actual Ronald Reagan doesn’t much resemble the fiction of “principled conservatism” anyway.
Mike
And maybe Republicans should stop looking 40 years in the past for examples of how to do politics today. The actual Ronald Reagan doesn’t much resemble the fiction of “principled conservatism” anyway.
Reagan had to deal with Congress and other antagonistic power centers.
Reagan’s the odd example of a Republican who entered presidential politics because he had policy goals he wanted to bring to fruition and who managed to carry along the electorate with him both in Republican nomination donnybrooks and in general elections. Richard Nixon was a contemplative bibliophile, but someone for whom issues were largely fungible; to the extent that he had preferences, they tended to favor the liberal Republican position. George Bush the Elder and Mitt Romney were also men for whom issues were fungible. Gerald Ford, Robert Dole, and John Kasich were career politicians; they had no ambition to do anything beyond minor incremental adjustments in policy and thought in terms of the dynamics within congressional committees (added to which was considerable spite in Kasich’s case). George Bush the Younger and John McCain you might say had commitments rather than convictions and landed in politics in middle age because they are competitive men (as was George Bush the Elder). Barry Goldwater was a conviction politician; he also ran in a year with a terrible head wind and then injured his cause with what one wag called ‘defoliating tactlessness’. Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, and Alan Keyes were what you might call demonstration candidates; they ran to rally a constituency and / or press an issue; it’s doubtful they ever expected to win or even sought to win. Nelson Rockefeller and John Anderson had policy goals; they were also drawn from the segment of the Republican Party most favorable to the main body of the Democratic Party on policy matters. The closest analogues to Reagan have been Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz, who were competitive candidates, had won elections in the past, and had actual policy goals. Three men in 60-odd years.
Then there’s Trump, who is sui generis.
I forgot Rick Santorum, so that’s four men in 60 odd years.
Art Deco:
Where would you place Newt Gingrich? Seems to me he might be in that group.
“Reagan’s the odd example of a Republican who entered presidential politics because he had policy goals he wanted to bring to fruition”
Yeah, but Reagan’s policy goals and viewpoint weren’t as aligned with “principled conservatism” as many GOP and think tank hacks like to pretend. He slapped a whanging big tariff on motorcycle imports to save Harley Davidson and not everyone on the Right was happy with Reagan’s willingness to deal with Gorbechev. Granted, he had an entrenched Democratic Congress to deal with but Reagan both policy-wise and temperamentally was a good bit different than the secular saint of Conservatism into which he’s been made.
Mike
Where would you place Newt Gingrich? Seems to me he might be in that group.
Perhaps. I can’t decide in which taxon belong Gingrich and Marco Rubio. I’d classify Ron Paul as a demonstration candidate.
Yeah, but Reagan’s policy goals and viewpoint weren’t as aligned with “principled conservatism” as many GOP and think tank hacks like to pretend. He slapped a whanging big tariff on motorcycle imports to save Harley Davidson and not everyone on the Right was happy with Reagan’s willingness to deal with Gorbechev.
For ideologically motivated people, trade issues are at the periphery of their concerns. The only exception I can think of would be cosmo-libertarians like Tyler Cowan, who dream of a borderless world. See Jaghdish Bhaghwati on the current trade regime: trade treaties are compendia of carve outs that nobody understands; an actual free trade treaty would be about 10 pages long.
Reagan was ahead of the curve in understanding the significance of Gorbachev’s change in direction. That’s not a matter of political principle, but of the ability to integrate data and make assessments.
Reagan was more a pragmatist in some regards say trade orthodoxy even tax policy but ideological on foreign policy vis a vis the soviets (which had 40 divisions on the other end of the fulda gap,) that posed a real ideological threat on three continents, there was the question of regulations and a tacit acknowledgement of believing christians and jews social issues like crime.
Conversely trump prioritized trade policy social issues like crime and put a lower attention on global geopolitics
@ Gregory > “It would be nice to know who is really running things but I guess that would be too much to ask.”
Tom Slater answers for Great Britain:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/10/17/general-hunts-coup/
I have no idea what a British chancellor is within their parliamentary system, but he seems to be wielding a lot of power over the purported leader of both his Party and the Government.
I don’t think the American Cabinet has an analogous position, the Secretary of the Treasury doesn’t seem to have as much power, but maybe it’s kind of like a chimera of the SecTreas and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Slater doesn’t clarify WHY Truss elevated her main rival to such a position, either.
I suppose he assumes most of his readers already know.
However, here is some more inside info on the deal, and a possible answer to who is running the British government — it’s the same group that apparently runs ours.
The Brownstone Institute was the second-highest search hit; further down was The Economist and they are very happy with Mr. Hunt.
https://brownstone.org/articles/jeremy-hunt-britains-new-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-strongly-backed-zero-covid-and-lockdowns/
Kind of reminds me of another Chancellor who took advantage of his position to advance his own agenda.
https://www.thoughtco.com/adolf-hitler-appointed-chancellor-of-germany-1779275
Not that I want to equate Mr. Hunt with that Other Person, but the fall from democracy into tyranny takes on similar characteristics in all eras.
Footnote:
https://brownstone.org/
They have put together an impressive-looking think-tank in little more than a year.
I’m going to check out some of his past posts.
https://brownstone.org/author/jeffrey-tucker/
Thanks AF…for the digging.
BTW, WRT the phrase,
“…This is the same British political establishment that for some reason chose to appoint a 40-year member of the British Communist Party as a leading participant in the Government’s “nudge unit” to drive consent for Covid mandates….”
…would we happen to have a name on that “40-year member of….”?
Per Instapundit and others, she’s gone as of this morning (Thursday 20 October 2022) after 44 days.