Update on the war in Ukraine
I offer my usual caveat on linking to this post with recent news on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The fog of war is always operative, so each person will probably take this differently. But I think it’s fairly clear that Russia is having major problems at the moment. I also think it’s likely that the war will go on for a long time to come.
Here’s an excerpt:
When asked to explain Russia’s apparent collapse in northern Donetsk/eastern Luhansk, Hauer tweeted, “They ran out of men – an issue long predicted and now very acutely felt.”
I’m starting to give more credence to Kyiv’s KIA claims against Russian forces. Before September, claims of 30,000-40,000 Russian dead seemed wild. More conservative estimates — like from the Dupuy Institute — were around 9,000-10,000. If Hauer is right, Russian losses must be at least double Dupuy’s estimate.
At this time, Russia is still trying to plug the gaps with freshly mobilized “mobiks.” Theses men are older, less fit, and barely trained. Russia doesn’t have a reserve system like ours, with National Guard and Army Reserve units staffed with people who work and drill together somewhat regularly. All they have is a list of men who put in a year or two as draftees sometime in the last 30 years — and local “recruiters” don’t always stick to the list.
These mobiks are getting sent to the front against UA troops who are now combat veterans…
The New York Times reported two weeks ago that Putin, apparently frustrated with his generals, has “thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks.”
If that last paragraph is true – and although it’s the NY Times reporting it, that doesn’t mean it’s not true – it’s not a good sign for Russia. I also wonder, as the author of that piece – Stephen Green – does, whether Putin will resort to nukes.
Many have reported on the interweb, Perun for example, that the Russian Federation Army has gutted its training apparatus to feed the demand for soldiers. No one left to train those being mobilized. A Potempkin Army. A fish rots from the head.
Putin, apparently frustrated with his generals, has “thrust himself more directly into strategic planning
Yes! The frustrated-Hitler strategy. He’ll show those silly Generals how to win a war…
From what I can tell, things are even worse for Russia than the linked article says. Events are coming really fast as the mud season approaches, I’ve noticed lots of overcast, puddles, and mud in the latest videos from the combat zones. If I may go out on a limb, I expect Luhansk and Northern Donetsk to change hands in the next couple of weeks. Kherson, I have no idea, I think Ukraine just wants to cook it as long as possible.
gerasimov has been scarce in appearances, he seems to have written up the war plan, that relied on ‘shock and awe’ what they called hybrid warfare,
It will be, for want of a better word, interesting to see what the winter will bring.
this suggests this will go more scorched earth, as that is ramzan’s specialty
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-putin-allies-ridicule-russias-war-machine-public-2022-10-03/
Regarding the nuke question, if Russia ever flirted with a no first use policy, that notion has apparently been discarded. It is safe to assume that if the decision to use a tactical nuke is made, their strategic arsenal will be cocked on a hair trigger with the safety off in case our pedo-in-chief so much as looks at them cross-eyed. The fact that we have a pedophile at the head of our government and an advancing woke culture cannot be discounted as factors in this scenario. Stolen elections have consequences, some of which are fatal.
Meanwhile,
Zelensky to Elon Musk: You run your business, I’ll run mine. Our deficit spending is exacerbating inflation and hurting Elon’s bottom line (and the rest of our economy), but a chunk of that spending is Ukraine’s gravy train, which Zelensky wants to run as long as possible. Musk was probably aware of this when he floated his peace proposal and lured Zelensky into further exposing the grift.
How crazy is Putin? He seems to believe his “annexation of the four provinces makes them official Russian territory. So now, by his definition, Ukraine is invading Russia. He seems to believe, that by calling Ukraine the aggressor, he will stir up more patriotism among his subjects. It’s not working. Apparently, the cream of Russian miliary age men are skedaddling – dodging the draft. His military is becoming less of a threat by the day.
Will he be crazy enough to use nukes? We don’t know just how demented he may be. Surely, he understands that there are no winners in a nuclear war. At least some of his advisers and generals know it. Don’t they?
Does he believe the West is too soft to retaliate if he uses tactical nukes? Hed very well may. His army seems to have violated many tenants of the Geneva accords without much pushback from the West. Sanctions don’t seem to bother him much. And oil prices are rising again. More money in his war chest. He may be feeling emboldened in spite of his Potemkin Army.
There are answers to stopping Putin and Russia, but Biden and company don’t seem to know what they are except to fight to the last Ukrainian. The war will probably last at least through the winter into next spring/summer. Months more of brutality, mayhem, and destruction. All to feed a crazy oligarch’s personal ambitions. 🙁
Our deficit spending is exacerbating inflation
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The deficit spending hardly exacerbates inflation in and of itself. If the Fed is engaging in open market operations, buying up securities and injecting cash into the economy, you will have more inflation. That’s a temptation when public sector borrowing is huge, as it is now.
has the shambling heap that dominion put in the white house, not made clear the objective is regime change, maybe he just garbled it, but putin can’t take a chance, there are too many dead Russian officers struck down with US and European weapons,
Ukraine continues to make gains in the north, and now also in the south.
A collapse of Russian forces could be quick.
Foggy at best. Vlad is learning the Tyson Rule “Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face.”
Banned is worried about the Ukrainian gravy train, the wheels have fallen off Vlad’s feinting train.
The Potempkin Express, loaded with T-62s and 1960s trucks. Logistics and General Mud have their say.
Vlad has to worry about his own Roosian “comrades” more so than a western kinetic kill IMO.
. Musk was probably aware of this when he floated his peace proposal and lured Zelensky into further exposing the grift.
Zelensky’s grift is expelling an invader. You invest in stupid causes.
Zelensky’s rejected attempt to join NATO is not an indication that things are going well for Ukraine.
Putin’s statement that he isn’t bluffing is an “all in” move. He can’t back down now. In annexing the Donbas and publicly celebrating it’s inclusion into Russia, Putin has drawn a new red line from which he can’t retreat. Unlike Obama’s “red line”, Putin is not a politician, he’s a dictator who says what he means and means what he says because that’s part and parcel of being a dictator.
Make no mistake, Putin is no blustering “Mother of All Battles” Saddam Hussein.
Yet given the fallout, using tactical nukes on his border would be counter productive. Putin is likely to see tactical nukes as a last resort. But if only resorting to tactical nukes will prevent a serious loss of “Mother Russia’s” territory… he will.
If Putin does, the US and its European allies will not respond in kind because that is very likely to escalate into a strategic nuclear war. No politician in Brussels, Berlin, London, Paris and Wash. D.C. will survive it and under all the rhetoric, they know it.
Mark Twain once famously said, “In a dog fight, it’s not the size of the dog that counts but the amount of fight in the dog.”
This administration, filled with Ivy League ‘woke’ snowflakes is all bark and no bite. Lawfare and sending FBI thugs after their political opposition is how they fight. They’re a bunch of McClellans not Grants, Shermans or a Stonewall Jackson or a Nathan Bedford Forrest.
In addition to the Danish and Swedish military vessels that are standing watch around the gas plumes, there are a few survey / subsea support vessels in the area around the breaches. They will be capable of deploying ROV’s and subsea imaging equipment to help characterizing the damage’s extent and description. It will be interesting to see which avenue this information takes to the general audience.
IMO the most likely suspect in this act is the US. As @Doomberg points out, this is no temporary condition; Europe is going to be short of gas this winter and likely next, which will have a profound effect on the economy. And to me, Putin making pointed comments about nukes: This is directed at the US, whom he probably at least suspects, and maybe even has intelligence supporting the suspicion.
It reads to me like a warning to whomever is making the decisions at the White House, its nuclear weapons peer. And all of the talking head examples I’ve seen are long past even considering natural or accidental causes, every one is talking war talk about blowing up the Black Sea Fleet and so on. They’re not even pretending to be outside observers now.
Pretty scary times if you ask me, given this is the same team of horses that has taken our economy over the cliff while borders are wide open and Law & Order are ‘options to be taken into consideration’ while the riots proceed. If there was a ‘worst ever’ team for forward-thinking track records, this is it.
The west should NOT respond to nukes with nukes unless it is global thermonuclear war and TEOTWAWKI.
Yes that chimeric freak with the dog collar will understand it implicitly
What “Insufficiently Sensitive said”.
Trot out all of those Hitler ranting videos, and dub in Putin’s face.
I just read today that General Petraeus said the if Russia employed tactical nukes, NATO and the U.S. would destroy their army. I don’t know why Petraeus thinks he, or anyone, knows what Biden and the NATO Flower Children would do; but, he said it.
General Keane, who I think knows a thing or two, flatly says that Russia will lose. He has said as much for awhile; and some “experts” scoffed. I don’t think anyone is scoffing now.
I don’t know if anyone really knows Putins’ state of mind. But, unless he has completely lost touch with reality, he is cognizant of the historical means of leadership succession in his country; and will tread carefully. Those upon whom he depends for his power, even his personal safety, are not likely to jump into the fire with him. Any rational General, or other senior government functionary, knows what their own fate could be if Russia went nuclear for, instance. They must be a little concerned about the ice beneath themselves already. Reportedly there is ample evidence of war crimes. Unless the International Community is willing to accept Eunuch status, there will be investigations when this end.
And putin wont eacalate with any of his other long range weapons this is utter lunacy it could be a midlevel nuclear exchange like in by dawns early light
Putin is not a politician, he’s a dictator who says what he means and means what he says because that’s part and parcel of being a dictator.
I’d put it differently, but ultimately we come to the same conclusion. I’d say as a dictator he can paint himself into a corner more quickly and more thoroughly than a slippery western politician. The real threat to a dictator’s power is almost always internal. He backs down, he looks weak and vulnerable. He may well conclude that that is not an option.
Per Tucker’s latest Ukraine update, Zelensky’s application for full NATO membership on an expedited basis will, if accepted (and practically by definition), precipitate a world war. Meanwhile, John Brennan appeared on CNN to pronounce Putin as the primary suspect in the Nord Stream explosions – not the US, and not Poland with US help. So says John Brennan.
And I worry that might be the case. Invading Ukraine was a gamble that didn’t payoff, his hand is weak, and he keeps raising the stakes. A sane man would fold, but I am not at all sure that Putin is still sane.
Patreus is quite frankly insane if he thinks the response to Russia using tactical nukes is to destroy Russia military with conventional weapons and there would be NO nuclear response from Russia?
Neo suggests it will be long extended war. We can only be so lucky…..
Russian history suggests they have an immense capacity for staggering military catastrophe.
“Russian history suggests they have an immense capacity for staggering military catastrophe.”
That was before the country’s birthrate fell through the floor. Also, the last time this happened, the Russians (Soviets) actually viewed fighting the war as a patriotic duty against a foreign invader. It’s not clear how much of the country currently feels a similar way toward the “military action” against Ukraine, but it is clear that there’s at least a sizeable minority that’s unhappy enough to try and escape the draft letter.
On another note, Putin injecting himself into the war planning sessions did put me in mind of Hitler. It also put me in mind of Tsar Alexander I during the Napoleonic Wars, and apparently President James Madison during the attack on Washington DC. It’s on old problem. On the other hand, given what we’re learning about the corruption in the Russian military, it’s possible that he couldn’t do any worse than his generals are doing…
The latest news is that one Russian general just announced the discovery that 1.5 million uniforms that were supposed to be in storage simply don’t exist.
“Zelensky’s rejected attempt to join NATO is not an indication that things are going well for Ukraine.”
Actually, it is. Since Ukraine is in a state of war with invading forces on its soil right now, NATO would undoubtedly attach as a condition for membership Ukraine survive and conclude this current war first. Zelensky is undoubtedly aware of that probable condition. And he believes Ukraine will, at the very least, survive this war.
It is also removing a psychological barrier to getting increased help from certain NATO states, especially Poland and Lithuania, whom Putin has already threatened. On that last point, it is also a shot across the bow of Belarus to resist Putin’s pressure and stay out of the war in Ukraine.
Per Tucker’s latest Ukraine update, Zelensky’s application for full NATO membership on an expedited basis will, if accepted (and practically by definition), precipitate a world war.
Between which parties? You insist on not noticing that Russia is currently stymied attempting to project power into five regions of the Ukraine.
IMO the most likely suspect in this act is the US.
Did it occur to you that maybe the pipeline just wasn’t maintained properly?
Putin is no blustering “Mother of All Battles” Saddam Hussein.
OK, but he’s been having trouble accomplishing much the last seven months.
From the beginning in here I’ve expressed skepticism over Russia’s chances. Their attack plan, multiple axeses of advance launched in late winter with the spring thaw coming, was idiotic.
I also doubted they could replenish their equipment and ammunition to maintain their tempo of operations. That tempo has degraded.
I think it is dawning on a lot of people, on both sides, that the Russian army is in serious danger of losing. Putin is trying to drum up domestic support, but his support is luke warm and getting colder.
Look at some of the recen moves as shots across the bow. I think the Russians through neglect or self-sabatage blew those pipelines. Look at a map of the Baltic and just west of where the pipelines is an EU pipeline running from Poland to Scandinavia. The message seems clear to me.
As for Ukraine’s request for expedited NATO membership,it will never happen while the war is hot, but pay attention to the positive response a lot of NATO countries have to it. The gloves can be taken off.
As for a tactical nuclear weapon, aside from the intimidation factor of threatening to use one, what happens after you use it? First, where do you use it — a troop concentration? A city? What would Russia really gain aside from the condemnation of the World and broadening the war to attacks on Russian staging areas. Nukes are deterrents, but once used what then?
I think Russia needs to extract themselves from the mess they’re in, at best hoping to keep Crimea. From the beginning I’ve said Putin’s head on a platter is the best exit for them.
You tried to destroy the economy of the average russian you declared regime change as your goal no he cannot afford to retreat. I have never seen this level of insanity that threatens perhaps the end of civilization
“Did it occur to you that maybe the pipeline just wasn’t maintained properly?”
Did you mean for that to sound snotty? I gave it the attention and probability I think it deserves, under the circumstances.
You wouldnt trust this crew biden harris and co to borrow a cup of sugar but you believe they can handle the most delicate life and death issues right?
Miguel,
The insanity is on the part of Putin. He is the one driving the world to the brink of nuclear war to feed his own ego. The West has no choice but to try to stop him. If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will invade more countries: Poland, the Baltics, Moldova would be next up. Putin has already specifically named them as targets.
No matter how bad Russia’s military is, but for our assistance (provided by idiot Biden only grudgingly), Ukraine would be losing. And then those next targets would be up. Should the Poles, Balts, and Romanians be sacrificed to slavery and genocide under Putin? Should we cave to Putin’s nuclear blackmail and leave them to fend for themselves? What if Putin sees such weakness and decides the Rodina should push further west just because he can? Weakness in the White House is why he invaded Ukraine (a country that is older than Russia) in the first place.
The time to stop Putin is now, when there is a chance to keep the stakes relatively low and the damage relatively limited. There are sane people in the Russian government who have not yet been defenestrated. We need to give them time and opportunity to act.
Glenn Greenwald: The Russian view of NATO military involvement in Ukraine is similar to how the US saw Soviet military involvement in Cuba. It is madness to assume that for Russia what is an existential war, if they actually start losing it or NATO starts escalating as we have been doing, that the chances of Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons is zero. This is a dangerous delusion that I think a lot of people are operating under.
I don’t care If Russia wins or Ukraine wins. It doesn’t affect me, as a US citizen one way or the other.
The only fact that I care is that our government, which I feel is not representative per our Constitution, cares and that means or may mean US military deaths. I also care just for the sake it might mean a wider conflict that can mean an outright war with Russia and that means missiles, some nuclear, hitting US cities.
And for what? Why?
There is not one solid reason given to date to justify our aggression towards Russia. No tactical or strategic or anything remotely that resembles sane.
That’s the rub.
We are at war with Eurasia thusly we have always been at war with Eurasia.
“Our aggression towards Russia”? Seriously?
Ok, Putinbot.
“Glenn Greenwald: The Russian view of NATO military involvement in Ukraine is similar to how the US saw Soviet military involvement in Cuba. It is madness to assume that for Russia what is an existential war, if they actually start losing it or NATO starts escalating as we have been doing, that the chances of Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons is zero. This is a dangerous delusion that I think a lot of people are operating under.”
1. Ukraine is not a existential war for Russia. It is an existential war for Putin. Slight difference.
B. The idea that “a lot of people are operating under” the “dangerous delusion” that “the chances of Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons is zero” is pushed mostly by people who want to use the threat of nuclear war as an excuse to give no military help to Ukraine and let Putin have his way. That whole “escalate to de-escalate” thing. News flash: “escalate to de-escalate” is Russian doctrine whether it’s invading Ukraine or Poland or France. Putin sees NATO’s mere existence as an “existential threat” to Russia. The nuclear threat is there whether we send Ukraine military aid or not because Putin has said he will not stop at Ukraine. Better to fight him now when it might be possible to limit the costs and the damage.
Potempkin Army:
Why Russian Defenses collapse
Military History Visualized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcgzB9hqxqo
A couple of points.
First, to the casualty losses. Even if both sides were evenly matched, the casualty rates for Russia would be a lot higher. They don’t have good body armour. Their military medical system is very poor anyway, and now at the end of a very long supply chain, so men that should survive don’t. Their superiors don’t care about them, and often just leave them to die. The soldiers are undisciplined, which includes drinking far too much vodka and poor hygiene, so they often get sick. Their supply system cannot deal with distribution, so they tend to cluster, which makes them easy targets for artillery.
If 40,000 Russians and 40,000 Ukrainians faced off, with equal weaponry on paper, the Russians would die at twice or more the rate.
Add to that their propensity for stupid frontal attacks and it gets much worse.
Second, most people have a dread of nuclear weapons, and they exaggerate their power by factors of 10 or 100. They are not the super weapon on the battlefield that many imagine — where one bomb can make a game-changing difference.
A small battlefield nuclear weapon has a kill radius of only a couple of kilometres, depending on terrain. Three-quarters of Nagasaki survived the bomb, and that was much bigger than a tactical weapon. The Ukrainian army is distributed sufficiently that they would lose only a very small proportion of their men (and much of the equipment would be unharmed at the outer reaches of that).
So to deal a killing blow to the Ukrainian army, the Russians would need to launch many dozens of tactical nuclear weapons. There simply would be no point releasing one or two — it would have the same backlash for virtually no effect.
Secondly, the Russian doctrine of tactical nuclear weapons is that protected troops rush through the holes made. But Russia no longer has anything like sufficient professional troops to mass behind a strike. The few they have would go through the gap, to be slaughtered by the Ukrainians behind the lines, as their supply could not follow. So tactical nuclear weapons would kill a few Ukrainians, but make absolutely no difference to the outcome of the war, short of firing dozens and dozens of them.
So Putin can’t use one nuclear weapon to win the war. He’s either going to go “all in” or he won’t bother.
Assuming it did not precipitate a major exchange, the result would inevitably be the destruction of Russia as a major power — the rest of the world would strip it of its other nuclear weapons as a pre-condition of even surviving. Without them it would be like Nigeria, but with shittier weather.
There’s no good outcome for Russia to use nuclear weapons except when defending its right to exist. If Putin doesn’t see this, the men around him will. They won’t want to see a mushroom cloud over Moscow.
“but a chunk of that spending is Ukraine’s gravy train, which Zelensky wants to run as long as possible. Musk was probably aware of this when he floated his peace proposal and lured Zelensky into further exposing the grift.”
Ukraine is a country which has been invaded, fights for its very existence and is having successes. Zelensky happens to be the president and a very good one.
So what is this ‘Ukrainian gravy train about’? Has Ukraine been destroying its own cities while blaming the Russian invader to get this supposed ‘gravy train’? And what has Zelensky to do to “run [it] as long as possible”. Is Zelensky artificially extending the war or does the thing who wrote this suggest that Zelensky should just capitulate but refused to do so in order to get a ‘gravy train’ and in criminally refusing to capitulate is responsible for all the destruction wrought upon Ukraine?
It makes no sense at all and in this particular case it has nothing to do with the first part of the comment the thing wrote (which is also BS. Biden the ‘elected’ certainly isn’t what he should be and his weakness is certainly a danger but he is not responsible for Russia’s insanities). It’s just added on for some kind of defamation on a toddlers level of thought.
It seems that pro-Russian bots/trolls/quislings/vermin love this kind of BS (*). Making it about Zelensky and accusing Zelensky of whatever comes in their schiff-for-brains minds seems their way to try to ignore the fact that Putin’s Russia invaded the Ukraine and the criminal nature of Russia’s actions.
(*) As an example of a few days ago in a comment on a youtube video; it seems Zelensky’s son is probably sipping cocktails in the USA instead of being at the front. Zelensky’s son is 9 years old. Pretty amusing that one.
Never seen CORRUPTION as widely thought of as so important. Not ever.
You’d think the Biden Enterprise had been condemned time out of mind.
Funny.
Ukraine is not a existential war for Russia. It is an existential war for Putin.
Exactly right.
Interesting analysis of Putin’s speech late last weekend in WSJ this morning. While we are thinking this is a war between Ukraine and Russia, Putin sees Ukraine as just one battle in a war against a morally bankrupt west. It reminded me of the Islamic fear of western secular culture before 9/11 and today.
We think we are projecting democratic values but on the receiving end, they think they are getting trans children, twerking, cold materialism and a lack of meaningful societal values. Think of the difference in movie and music content between now and decades ago as an example. That’s what the world sees as our values.
Maybe we should all take a step back for a second and figure out what we are actually fighting for. Somehow we’ve gone from championing democracy and the Bill of Rights to championing abortion up to birth, mutilating children’s genitals, racially driven violence and sexualizing society to a sickening degree. We may not be who we think we are to the rest of the world.
Burisma which owned the largest bank privat that collapsed to the tune of 6 billion owned hunter and kept him in hookers and blow
And of course putin stole the 2016 election for trump thats why we are giving every last bullet to ukraine
Ukraine is a one party state, and he urges same for western europe
See here
https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/04/with-new-documents-the-biden-administrations-targeting-of-a-pro-life-dad-just-got-crazier/
This is the cause were defending
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2022/10/03/drag-queen-defender-david-french-so-upset-over-tweet-from-the-blazes-todd-erzen-he-called-to-tattle-it-did-not-go-well/
Jefferson’s Revenge at 8:00 AM makes an excellent point.
Otay, Putin fighting against the morally bankrupt “west.”
Otay, I have a bridge to Crimea that you may be interested in purchasing. You can volunteer to fight for the Motherland too, Kershon needs some warriors for glory. Bring your own kit and kaboodle. One way trip.
Weve already paid for the bridge this brinksmamship is getting very expensive
Putin came up through the KGB, not the military, similar ranks notwithstanding. Retiring as a LTC isn’t a big deal. World’s full of them.
He’s a manipulator and says what he thinks his audience will buy. Whether he’s Christian, Orthodox or not, is impossible to tell. But when it’s useful…he uses the pitch. Vibes of the frequently-invaded Russia. Glories of the Czar–for heaven’s sake–and Greater Russia. Whatever it takes to move the audience at home and abroad.
What he really thinks…can only be presumed.
He’s not on your side, whichever position as to drag queens he’s taking this morning.
Jefferson’s Revenge’s point is, as far as I can tell, not mutually exclusive to anything anyone is saying here. The Walter Russell Mead article he references in today’s WSJ is excellent by the way. Highly recommend.
Glenn Greenwald: The Russian view of NATO military involvement in Ukraine is similar to how the US saw Soviet military involvement in Cuba.
Cuba has gone unmolested since 1962.
He was pointing out how serious we took it
I hear there is a bridge to, whatever, brinksmanship? Vlad’s game since February 24, 2022. He’s had some by the short hairs from day one. The “defender of Christianity” schtick is particularly pathetic.
Putin will keep sending soldiers into the Ukraine regardless of their level of training and equipment. Russian leaders, esp. since 1917, have never given a hoot about how many dead Russians it takes to meet a military objective or really any other objective the leadership desires.
This was will continue as long as Herr Putin is in charge. Putin, if he needs /wants to , can bring millions of soldiers to the fight.
So, was the Nord Stream gas pipeline intentionally damaged or not?
I have no idea but some are speculating that the USA sabotaged it.
I think that notion is idiotic.
Not that sabotage is not impossible, but steel pipelines do and have failed all by their lonesome, even here in the USA.
This might be controversial but I have always thought there was a good chance whatever damage happened to Nordstream was unintentional, likely an accident. That it is possible that the damage was the product of sabotage by just about any party you can think of (Putin, Ukraine, the US/NATO or some variation thereof, Russian radicals, Russian dissidents, OPEC) but was likely a product of poor Russian pipe management.
Ace over at the HQ linked to this in my opinion very good blog post about it. And of course if/when it happened it got blown up apparently because both major sides wanted to turn this into a cause celebre or push to get points from it.
https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
Ironically I do think that the US’s best move would simply be not making a big deal about it pretty much regardless of who is responsible (and even if it did it). But that would be too much to ask for from Brandon.
@Insufficiently Sensitive
This is actually a deeper comparison than you might think and more fitting than the surface level. I have immense hatred for Hitler but he gets less credit in some aspects than he deserves (and indeed he was apparently a very skilled soldier and had decent instincts in grand strategy, with his intervention helping to shape many of the early war German victories). But more importantly and relevantly, his turn against the German officer staff was caused in part by their very real failures and even betrayals. Chief among them was his Chief of the General Staff, Halder, who we now know committed one of history’s greatest acts of insubordination by changing Barbarossa’s operational plans from being geared to the South towards being geared for a drive on Moscow. This was almost certainly the wrong choice to take, since Russian states had survived Moscow being conquered or even razed before, but the Reich needed the resources- especially food and fuel- from the South in order to sustain its war effort.
Hitler only learned about the changes after the invasion went forward, when it was too late to change things. Which probably cost the Reich the single greatest chance it had of winning the war (by burning through the fuel stocks just to get stuck outside of Moscow during the Winter and hit by a counter attack). Is it any wonder he didn’t trust his generals so much after that? Who WOULD NOT?
Especially after the failure of Stalingrad, where he was similarly fairly hands off.
Putin’s defeats are nowhere near as catastrophic but similarly damaging. In particular undergirded by corruption damaging the paper strength of the Russian military and intelligence analysts promising the world in terms of fifth columnists and sympathizers in Ukraine that existed only on reports meant to make them look good. Not helped by failures elsewhere. Which would infuriate a cunning KGB clerk who clawed his way up and had previously decent track records conducting other wars.
. Musk was probably aware of this when he floated his peace proposal and lured Zelensky into further exposing the grift.
Zelensky’s grift is expelling an invader. You invest in stupid causes.
“Invest” does not explain the billions we are sending Ukraine. I think the Harvard grad students running Biden are very bit as clever as the “Best and Brightest” who got us into Vietnam.
@Banned Lizard
Agreed there. Besides, Soviet nuclear strategy was much more receptive to a first strike than ours was at least after the Eisenhower years, since the former was predicated on eventually launching an aggressive war of world conquest.
Honestly this strikes me as way too cute by half.
Firstly: Our deficit spending does us no favors, but “the Ukrainian grift” is a pretty modest amount of that in comparison to entitlements domestically (if anything I’d argue the greater damage from Ukrainian grift is political).
Secondly: Zelenskyy showing the hand to Musk’s peace deal makes a lot more sense when you realize that Zelenskyy was prior to this year *one of the more pro-peace figures* in Ukrainian politics, for instance openly broaching matters like what Musk described like a plebiscite in the Donbas as an intermediate step to solving the war.
Indeed, you can even see this on things like this English-language Ukrainian-focused Soros Rag.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2019/05/29/zelenskyi-team-proposes-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-heres-why-thats-a-problem/
This got Zelenskyy SIGNIFICANT flak (as you can see here), only to be completely and utterly ignored by Putin and the Russian and “Separatist” leadership. Who as I pointed out had absolutely zero interest in a Donbas referendum carried out in a demilitarized fashion or with credible observers. In part because they want to keep this as an open wound if they can’t dominate Ukraine as a whole.
Most of the Ukrainian public and political sphere actually is more hawkish than Zelenskyy is on this issue, and Zelenskyy in any case has no interest in appearing too weak or conciliatory after this. Which is also why making this too much about Zelenskyy is a mistake and misreading of the situation.
As for “exposing the grift” frankly most Ukrainian political figures would want Western support, and probably a fair bit of corruption on the side.
That is true, which is why it almost certainly wouldn’t be accepted until the war was over.
Indeed. This is one case where I can’t rule out Brennan telling the truth for once (whether the explosions were intentional sabotage or unintentional) but I sure as hell do not trust him.
Oh for Fuck’s Sake am I tired of this analogy, because it is utterly bullshit at the best of times and probably aggressively dishonest.
The US has showed far, FAR more forbearance towards Soviet and later Russian military involvement in Cuba than the Kremlin has towards Ukrainian governments that do not answer to it, even without US or other military involvement. While the US semi-frequently tried to overthrow the Castro dictatorship (moreso prior to 1961) but it didn’t talk about being on the edge of a world war until THE SOVIETS LITERALLY PUT STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS in Cuba. And it tolerated their removal and the retention of tactical/defensive nuclear weapons in Cuba.
Russian and Chinese forces still regularly visit Cuba and have for decades.
But I’m supposed to believe that the US should tolerate the Castros having tactical nuclear weapons and Soviet military bases (and later others) as well as systematic sponsoring the drug trade and international terrorism, but Russia cannot be asked to accept a Ukrainian President being removed from office by his own party or negotiating an EU Association Agreement?
Putin is in many ways his own worst enemy diplomatically.
I second what others said. This is not an existential war for Russia, this is an existential war for Ukraine and Putin’s regime.
This is not a case of Moscow having to build fortifications along the Volga and Dnieper Bends or else facing hordes of Crimean Tatars trying to burn the Kremlin again.
As if they aren’t?
This is true, but that goes back to managing danger and risk. Especially for Putin.
@Mike K
It explains most of them, and beyond that a lot of that is explained by Ukraine’s very real prospects for legit business, and the rest by corruption. I’m not naive enough to think Ukraine doesn’t have the swamp critters going around very dirty deeds, but I think trying to explain the level of commitment to it through that is an overstatement.
I’d wager they are less clever.
I think the Harvard grad students running Biden are very bit as clever as the “Best and Brightest” who got us into Vietnam.
They haven’t sent 25,000 troops.
They haven’t sent 25,000 troops.
I understand there are 20,000 US “volunteers” there.
@Geoffrey Britain
Maybe, but I’m skeptical. I think it is more likely to reflect the utter failure of Non-Aligned or Neutral politics. Which admittedly should have been evident to Ukraine by 2014, but after this year showed there was little hope of maintaining it even in exchange to get the seized territory back. Made worse by Putin openly demanding it while people have to consider what “neutral” means to him
Who in Ukraine that is not openly aligned with Putin would want to stake their hat on neutrality now?
Possible.
Dictators are first and foremost politicians.
I’m not sure who the hell thinks that, but I invite them to look back at Putin’s prior statements and that of other dictators. Dissembling and dishonesty are often important tools for any politician and particularly for dictators. Not helped by much of Putin’s power being literally built on lies in the form of fraudulent elections and attempts to rewrite history about things like the origins of a Ukrainian national identity and the nature of Molotov-Ribbentrop.
I worked in Russia for a few months.
Maybe, but he has made some very similar issues.
Perhaps, we’ll see.
We’ll see. Though they will likely intensify in other ways. Nobody wants the nuclear taboo to be broken too blatantly except for the Iranian Mullahs.
I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean.
Firstly: The US is fundamentally not one of the major combatants of the war. It is a major player, but this is primarily a war between Ukraine and Russia. Those who forget this or act like Ukraine is an unthinking puppet of the US or dominated by it are just confessing they have missed the plot, much like those that put too much emphasis on Zelenskyy personally or any given Ukrainian politician.
Secondly: McClellan was more than willing to fight. He just demanded often unrealistically intricate preparations or preferable conditions to do so and even then hesitated. But he did oversee the bloodiest day of the Civil War, turned the Union Army into the machine that Grant etc. would use to destroy the CSA, and cemented the Emancipation Proclamation. He also openly rebelled against his own party’s platform of negotiated peace.
Thirdly: Of all the many issues I have with this administration, lack of fighting spirit isn’t one. I just wish they would spend less of it going after us.
Burisma which owned the largest bank privat that collapsed to the tune of 6 billion owned hunter and kept him in hookers and blow
The Burisma CEO who hired Hunter was pro-Russia.
With the transfer of territory completed, hopefully hostilities can cease. Enough of Ukraine is left to allow continued no-show jobs for children of corrupt American elites (Bidens, Romneys, Pelosis, etc), and Zelensky’s high-heeled review.
As Joan Rivers would say, let’s calm down.
@mike k
I’d have to check, but the most common quote for that was all foreign volunteers, not just US ones. Though that estimate also came from months ago. And most are probably actual volunteers as opposed to Soviet-style ones. And also the troops in Vietnam had to be accompanied by supporting staff. Nurses and all that.
No kolomoisky was the funder of the azov among other efforts
It looks like the Russians are now collapsing in Kherson.
Zelensky’s rejected attempt to join NATO is not an indication that things are going well for Ukraine.
Russian forces have been collapsing in the north, and now in the south as well. Russia is now a primary supplier of Ukrainian arms.
No kolomoisky was the funder of the azov among other efforts
Mykola Zlochevsky was Hunter’s boss. He served in the pro-Russian governments of Mykola Azarov and Viktor Yanukovych.
@Banned Lizard
They won’t cease. At all. Why would they?
The “transfer of territory” certainly isn’t complete, especially with the heavy combat and territorial changes. It’ll also take a fair few months to train the new Russian troops up to an acceptable level, which is probably the soonest time I could see any possible stop to hostilities. And even that is putting it mildly.
Ukrainian doves have repeatedly been more humiliated than Ukrainian hawks have been, especially since attempts to co-exist or get along with Putin’s Kremlin have been less successful than fighting it. And as I detailed above, Zelenskyy actually wanted to move towards a diplomatic solution (or at least claimed he did) with a more or less honest vote in a demilitarized Donbas. Putin simply refused to consider it, as did the assorted Separatist Warlords.
The Ukrainians have little reason why.
Try explaining that to all the Ukrainian loyalists who have gotten dispossessed from the Donbas and Crimea, or who have been killed by Russian rocket or bomb strikes. Especially when they think they’re winning.
The Ukrainians have very little reason to be “calm” perse. Calculating sure, and they have pointedly avoided making some escalations by limiting ranged attacks on Russia proper and avoiding sending troops over the border. But that does not mean they are calm.
And they are far more capable of determining the nature of the war than deadbeat kids of corrupt Western politicians.
@Miguel Cervantes
I don’t even disagree with a lot you post, but
No, NO IT ISN’T. As can be shown by how Zelenskyy came to power by defeating the incumbent, and how there are still a host of viable opposition parties. The Ukrainian government did ban a bunch of politicians and parties it accused of being collaborators with the Kremlin, and I sure as hell don’t know the accuracy or honesty of that, but at least it has been condemned openly by the still-legal opposition parties.
I reject that. I have plenty of issues with Drag Queen Story Hour and will remain it. I despise David French. The fact that he and I share some causes is an unfortunate accident, but not one I am prepared to devastate my own moral compass in order to avoid.
If you think it is expensive now, imagine how much more expensive it will be this winter. Or if it prompts another round of nuclearization such as by Ukraine, who have now clearly seen that it was a mistake to give up all pretenses to independent nuclear deterrent at Budapest in 1994.
Using nukes is such a massive escalation, I think it unlikely that they would be used on troops in the field. It would probably be a strategic attack such as nuking Kyiv. Perhaps “withdraw from the disputed areas or we nuke Kyiv”.
Russia is a one party state run by a dictator— and has invaded multiple neighbors.
It is also much more corrupt than Ukraine. This is in fact reflected in their relative battlefield performance.
I understand there are 20,000 US “volunteers” there.
No, no. They are all Poles and Afro-Americans, or so a Russian soldier reported 🙂 He also pointed out that he used “Afro-Americans” to be politically correct.
FWIW, Jordan Peterson’s view of Putin, Russia and Ukraine
https://youtube.com/shorts/xp_28zeSMqY?feature=share
As usual, Neo’s salon recapitulates most of the punditry discussion in a microcosm.
I appreciate all the different viewpoints, because there is obviously not yet a definitive consensus on what Putin will do, what his populace will support, and how the synergy of conflicting pressures will play out.
So far, Churchill still gets the final word:
“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”
In re the pipelines: I think Lawdog made some good points that the explosions were due to faulty aka nonexistent Russian maintenance (he has not been the only one), but until someone actually does an investigation, we are all just speculating.
I don’t recall where I saw this, but the question of accident or sabotage depends on whether the explosive was going out, or going in.
In re the actual progress of the fighting, I agree with the view that Ukraine’s victories depend on BOTH the matériel from the West plus the expertise and just plain grit (NOT grift) of their own soldiers. In combination, they have generated a first-rate military machine.
And as Jeff Gauch comments on Green’s post, about Russia’s losses:
“The most expensive thing in the world is a second-best military.”
Banned and Geoffrey; Vlad’s chief cheerleaders.
Even Jordon Peterson can be mistaken. Sorry Geoffrey.
Jordan Peterson isn’t a military guy. I believe he’s looking at it from the big picture POV of the size and total wealth of the two countries.
At the moment AFU are wreaking the Russians. Maybe winter will pause that and give Russia a chance to regroup, maybe not. Maybe the AFU will overextend themselves, maybe not. From what I’m seeing this probably won’t work out to Russian benefit, and one of the results will be significant degradation of the militias of the breakaway regions, and also a lost of trust in Russia (at one place we know, the Russian orders were to leave them behind as a rear guard without telling them).
Trust the Roosians? When has that ever worked out for Ukrainians over the last 100 years?
As regards Peterson, I’d suggest, again, Sowell’s “Intellectuals and War” in which he discusses how intellectuals presume other countries will act in their own interests as determined by said intellectuals.
Just for grins…in WW I, Italy did not join her supposed allies in the initial fighting. Once Austria was fully engaged, it seemed like a good time to stab them in the back and start a terrible war in the Alps. Half a million Italians died, apparently, fighting for territory suitable for travel posters and ski resorts.
This put the Italians, effectively, on the side of the Brit/French by drawing in German troops.
Might have worked out for the best for the western allies but not so much for the Italians.
Then, hardly having time to change their socks after the Armistice, large numbers of the Heer joined the Freikorps to fight with others in the Baltics against…usually…the Bolshies. Then Poland and Russia gave a war in 1919. Poland won.
Funny thing. 1919/20, the Brits put a motor torpedo boat squadron–see Faulkner’s “Turn About”–into a harbor in Finland to keep an eye on the Bolshie navy because, without having declared war, the Brits were in a state of war with the Reds. Eventually, after scouting and sneaking, the squadron was given orders to hit the Bolshie heavies in their anchorage.
Let’s see the intellectuals figure out this nonsense.
Oh dear…
Zelenskiy Decree Rules Out Ukraine Talks With Putin as ‘Impossible’
So much for giving peace a chance.
*sigh*
@Banned Lizard
Wish I were surprised. Probably overstating thjngs to a fair degree- a lot of the advanced weapons and other aid is getting through (and a lot of the aid isn’t even going to Ukraine proper but to neighboring nations), but I will never claim Ukraine is not corrupt or that an awful lot of resources haven’t been disappeared. Even stuff that isn’t outright stolen likely pops up in ways that are hard to observe even for support staff there, and others there is outright Theft.
Why this is surprising us kind of jarring for me. Like I mentioned before: Zelenskyy gave peace a chance. Indeed on the Ukrainian political spectrum he was and is one of the more dovish. And he got absolutely dunked on for “giving peace a chance” from all sides. From more hardline loyalists who want complete victory and do not want to reward Russian attacks even with a plebiscite, and from Putin’s government who ignored his offer and then launched an outright invasion earlier this year.
I don’t think this would make anybody MORE optimistic about resolving the conflict through peace. Especially with the Ukrainians fighting on and making some advances into the occupied areas. And the fact that if Zelenskyy fell or resigned tomorrow he’d likely be replaced with someone even more stubborn about victory, since Ukrainian public opinion is not inclined to make compromises with the Kremlin after a war this long and bitter.
Alas, I fear this will be ugly and likely long.
Poor Banned, releying on Jim Hoff and a random dude for his “copes,” and the sads that Zelinski doesn’t trust Vlad any more. Vlad’s current positions don’t look good, so much feinting. Let’s try the nuke threats again, Vlad?
Well it’s not like Vlad respected treaties and borders of Ukraine before Feb. 24, 2022. But, but, but NATO!
Turtler: “Alas, I fear this will be ugly and likely long.”
Agreed. As for ugly: I’ve been checking in on the news with RFE/RL (my former employer, way back when). They posted a video of Russian casualties–hell, dead Russian soldiers–on a road outside Lyman. Caught in an ambush. The Ukrainians attached cables to the corpses and checked them for booby traps before bagging them up. You could see the revulsion on the face of the reporter. Ugly and raw. Like Mathew Brady’s Civil War battlefield photos.
A lot of eggs for Vlad’s ommlette.
Retreat and rout are very dangerous things in war.