How can Fetterman be leading in the polls?
Commenter “huxley” points out the strangeness of John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for the Senate from Pennsylvania, and asks a question:
Then there’s this Fetterman character running for the US Senate in Pennsylvania who looks and dresses like a tattooed reboot of Lex Luthor, Superman’s arch-nemesis in DC Comics.
Fetterman has had a stroke, which seems to have left him with a large mysterious lump on his neck (usually concealed by his hoodie) and damaged his brain. When asked how he was doing in an interview, he responded bizarrely..
Yet Fetterman has been leading in the polls over his Republican opponent. The race has tightened, but this Fetterman could shortly become a new member of the US Senate.
How does this happen?
It’s an excellent question, and I’ll take a stab at an answer.
The first possibility is that the polls are wrong and that Dr. Oz, Fetterman’s Republican opponent, is actually ahead. But there’s an excellent chance that’s not the case, so let’s put that one aside.
Next, there’s probably a solid core of Pennsylvania voters – perhaps a quarter or a third, although that’s just a guess – who are hard leftists and cultural warriors who love both Fetterman’s look and his politics.
Then we have the sizable portion of the electorate who are what used to be called “yellow dog Democrats,” people who would vote for a yellow dog if it had the label “Democrat” next to it.
We also have low information voters who are not paying attention, and some of them are reliable Democrat voters as well. In addition, Fetterman has taken a leaf out of the Joe Biden campaign book in 2020, and to a certain extent has kept a rather low profile with the help of an enabling MSM. For example, there has been no debate, and Fetterman has only agreed to one debate (as opposed the usual two in Pennsylvania) late in the game (October 25, after considerable early voting will have occurred) with special accommodations:
He has done just a handful of media interviews and no press conferences since the stroke and has used closed-captioning in video interviews with reporters.
Lastly, Fetterman’s opponent Dr. Oz isn’t a traditional conservative and many people on the right aren’t enthusiastic about him.
The combination of all those factors could account for Fetterman’s lead in the polls.
There’s also the fact that Shapiro, running for governor, will almost certainly win, and since most people vote straight ticket, he will bring Fetterman with him.
“Dr. Oz isn’t a traditional conservative and many people on the right aren’t enthusiastic about him.”
Which mean that they would rather have the dangerous one as a Senator. Make sense doesn’t it.
Was Fetterman better before?
Because otherwise a follow-on question is: how did he become the Dem nominee?
Subterfuge in the polling and/or stuck on stupid.
Brings to mind the chestnut: “one definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again, while expecting different results.”
Dr. Oz is an elderly man of considerable accomplishment, who has other things to do with his life than run for public office. Fetterman is a man in the latter half of middle age who once ran a rec center, once ran a mini muni, has spent an abnormal amount of time being subsidized by his wealthy father, and needs to be in rehab consequent to a stroke. One of our problems as a society is that about half the public is unfazed by an accounting of what John Fetterman has done with his life and the condition he is in (physical and mental).
Reminds you of the attorney-general’s race in New York four years ago. Both candidates were black. One was a BigLaw partner who had other things to do with his life than run for public office. The other was a spinster who had taken up public office when she quit practicing law 20 years earlier. Her career in law consisted of 10 years as a public defender and legal aid attorney. She was admitted to the bar in 1989. The data on the bar register is not granular enough to tell the reader whether the bar exam had been administered three times or four times in the interval between the receipt of her law degree and the time she was admitted. She ran on a platform of prosecuting Donald Trump and never mind for what. She won.
The democrat bench is pitiful and weak both in the states and nationally.
Pennsylvanian here, seeing only Fetterman signs and next to 0 Dr Oz yard signs. He is a hard core Leftist but his actual record of actions has to be hardly known. He has worked on the decriminalization of criminals.
Hope it’s the conservative suppression and will show itself in November.
There is a frightening development emerging within the Fetterneck phenomenon. The popular zombie/mutant fiction genre of the past several years presaged the rise of Antifa/BLM and a zombie/mutant voting bloc. Andy Ngo’s Antifa mugshot compilations visually catalogue the new species. Some of the more violent of them are transexual. Many were charged with “felony riot” in 2020, then released to continue breeding.
The people who won’t vote for Oz because they are not enthused about him are just plain idiotic. I can’t believe they are so narrowly focused as to think that Fetterman is a better “choice” than Oz. Because NOT voting for Oz is essentially voting FOR Fetterman.
For comparing him to fictional characters I would choose Uncle Fester rather than Lex Luthor. Especially if you throw in his Morticia looking wife.
In other words, a large segment of the electorate is unfit for self-rule.
Assuming the polls are garbage, which may be true, or is at least worth considering, Oz has reportedly (by Salena Zito) been working local events across the state diligently, to the surprise of party regulars who thought he’d be a terrible candidate.
But there are a substantial number of people who will vote for their chosen party no matter what.
I also tend to get the impression that the national coverage of Fetterman has pointed out the issues. But the local coverage seems to have gone out of its way to avoid talking about them.
Basically they are running the same playbook that Biden successfully used. Hide him until he gets in. Then put him in public only when absolutely necessary. Have all the un-elected cronies work everything behind the scenes.
I fully expect the next step is for the dead to step away from the voting booths and begin running for office
Very strange election season here in my part of Florida (the purple Tampa Bay area) — almost no lawn signs or bumper stickers of any kind, but those I see are generally for Democrats (who seldom i.d. themselves as such). I was in NW Florida recently, formerly a Trump stronghold. “Don’t Say Gaetz” yard signs were far more common than anything else. Here I see a very few “Val Demings” signs, but *none* for Rubio. Not much enthusiasm any way, I’d say, and can only guess that most Republicans no longer advertise their preferences on their lawns. A big contrast to 2020.
@JimNorCal Fettermen is the Lt. Govenor.
Nancy B,
Here in NE Florida, the only signs I see are for local candidates. Haven’t see anything for Rubio or DeSantis, or for the Ds. Not sure what that translates to as it’s my first election here.
“Don’t Say Gaetz” yard signs were far more common than anything else.
Trump had a 32% plurality in his district in 2020 and the district hasn’t elected a Democrat in 30 years. I don’t think Mr. Gaetz will lose his seat. Gaetz is a rather disconcerting figure (he looks like a cartoon of a sleazy car dealer). The question at hand is the degree to which the loss of standing from the revelation that one of his buddies is an elected crook and the loss of standing from the revelation that he dates women who are half his age counteracts enhanced standing from the revelation that it’s actually women he dates.
Thanks, Kris.
Jeez.
hes some eldritch homunculus, some blend of lovecraft and frankenstein,
I use terms out of horror, because that is what he would inflict on the populace,
the fellow greenberg is a sleazy sort like william allen, but the feds have been very lenient on him, hoping that he would incriminate gaetz, the post was upset that the prosecutors would not go for that,
his opponent is a criminal fantasist, who should be employed in no professional capacity,
Fettermen is the Lt. Govenor.
Pet peeve: ceremonial offices filled by pols in a holding pattern. Ceremonial offices should be hereditary and have some residual practical duties.
he failed upwards from mayor of bradford, which he some how made worse, with his green energy fixation,
John Fetterman has a loyal following in Pennsylvania, leftists and progressives for political reasons, non-political types just somehow sympathize with his unorthodox style and don’t really follow the policy differences. Even a lot of Trump supporters are furious that Trump endorsed Oz, who does not have deep ties to the state and no cultural resonance with the Trump movement. I think Salena Zito is right to observe forward movement for Oz, but there is not much enthusiasm for him, more of a stop Fetterman impulse.
Doug Mastriano is running a horrid campaign and will likely lose the governor race by a large margin, so there might be some middle of the road and uninvolved voters who will vote Oz just so both Shapiro and Fetterman are not elected when there is so much dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and the Democratic Congress.
I have to admit I really don’t know what is going to happen here in PA this year, though, especially since mail in voting was locked in place by the PA Supreme Court.
we saw how zuckerberg stole the state, for the progs, who inflicted procrustean measures on the populace, well murderous measures in fact,
The mail-in-vote in PA is an insurmountable problem for the Republican candidates on the statewide ballot. Oz and Mastriano never had a prayer with such voting rules. Philadelphia County will produce whatever vote totals are needed to win those two races.
the polls will be much closer, but close enough to steal, we have seen how philadelphia is literally thunderdome and gotham combined
Another option for Fetterman leading is he’s the only real option for Democrats for November, and if he and Shapiro wins, there is a reasonable argument for replacing him with another Democrat (probably an extremist that wouldn’t win if on a ballot). Many people simply vote for party, and indeed that is a leading argument for Oz among Republicans.
As the @People’s Pundit frequently says, the pollsters are notoriously wrong in favor of Democrats. He has some pretty good historical data on this skew. It’s my belief that pollsters not only skew Democratic, but in heavily Democratic districts their skew is even worse. I’m guessing it’s a variation on the concept of push-polling, but who knows.
Since Fester / Fetterman is already Lt. Gov., he will benefit from a certain amount of name recognition, certainly. And I think there are a fair number of Republican voters that see Oz as a bit of a phony conservative, given his present conflicts with past positions that were very public, by virtue of his television persona. Finally, I think Republicans have learned that Democrats find virtue in being belligerent activists against people that put up yard signs and the like for Republican politicians. So they’ve been driven underground a bit, avoiding the hassle and quietly nodding to their neighbors that are in a similar position and making sure that they vote *every*damn*time* they have the opportunity.
2020 saw four different Dem election judges in Philly named in Federal indictments for taking bribes and other election fraud. Philly has precincts which historically always produce more votes than the population of the precinct. It’s a polluted sewer of dirty politics.
Even by the standard of Democrat inner city political machines, Philly is especially corrupt. Just as Daley routinely voted the cemetery vote to deliver whatever it took to win Illinois, Philly has the corrupt election methodology down pat for delivering Pa.
For comparing him to fictional characters I would choose Uncle Fester rather than Lex Luthor.
Martin:
I’ve run into the Fester/Fetterman comparison. Granted, it works, although Fetterman lacks Fester’s odd cuddliness. However, it was Fetterman’s wiki photo that made the Lex Luthor spark leap for me:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fetterman
He is wearing a gray workshirt, chrome-domed with sunken eyes glowering — nearly the spitting image, sans goatee, of the Silver Age Lex Luthor.
There is a frightening development emerging within the Fetterneck phenomenon. The popular zombie/mutant fiction genre of the past several years presaged the rise of Antifa/BLM and a zombie/mutant voting bloc. Andy Ngo’s Antifa mugshot compilations visually catalogue the new species.
Banned Lizard:
That’s my thought too. I find it disconcerting. It’s OK for comic book melodramas, but not IMO for the United States Senate.
Th polls are lies.
Salena Zito with a writeup on Fester / Fetterman
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/fettermans-problems-go-beyond-his-health
There’s no ‘There’, there.
Check out the best pollster out there, The Peoples Pundit, Richard Baris and The Big Data Poll, if you want the real deal…
ThePeoplesPundit.locals.com
Around my area in Louisville and south into the hinterlands, I’m seeing a similar yard sign phenomenon. Seems like there’s a sign in front of every other bush for local candidates but the Senate race (Rand Paul/Charles Booker) is rarely represented, and neither are the House race(s).
I’m still hopeful that Oz will pull it out, but he’s not the best candidate for Pennsylvania. Fetterman, because of his style, has a strong cultural connection to working class Pennsylvanians. Fetterman will win the crazy lefties because he is he is a crazy lefty. He will also win a lot of ordinary, working class Pennsylvanians because his working class schtick plays. From Fetterman’s standpoint, Oz is the ideal opponent – the antithesis of working class who can be portrayed as an inauthentic outsider.
Of course, Fetterman’s schtick is a pose. He comes from money and his parents have supported him into his 40’s. (Other than making a career in academia, that’s about the only way I can think of that a grown adult could come to believe as many crazy things as he does.)
Outside groups are on the air in PA now pounding Fetterman for being soft on crime – and Fetterman has a hard time denying that because he served on some sort of parole board in PA and actually has to defend a soft-on-crime record. Oz is also a better general election candidate than I expected, although his strength appears to be in-person campaigning. (Odd for the TV personality.) Oz is still hamstrung by a boat anchor of a ticket mate in Doug Mastriano.
The bottom line, though, is that McCormack for Senate and Barletta for Governor would likely be leading by 5 points right now. When PA ends up stuck with Governor Shapiro and possibly Senator Fetterman, we will have Trump to thank.
No fetterman is a mental patient who should be in no responsible office
He ruined the city of bradford he was complicit in the deaths of thousands of elderly
Didn’t Mencken say that people deserve the government they vote for good and hard?
The bottom line, though, is that McCormack for Senate and Barletta for Governor would likely be leading by 5 points right now.
Sez who?
Years ago, Wretchard wrote of the “weighted” political donations to republicans. It might cost you more than money. Hence, it was
more meaningful than the dollar amount. Maybe the could be said
of a poll answer.
I’ve heard Fetterman has a good social media team. Example: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1576992422332174356
Doesn’t do much for me, but perhaps it speaks to the kiddos.
Seen a article Fetterman went after the Lt Governor position just to work on letting criminals out of prison.
PA has more than a fair share of stupid. I find it hard to fathom how candidates with sellout crowds at rallies lose to invisible candidates.