What’s going on in Ukraine these days?
Plenty.
I don’t usually report on the ups and downs of the military events in Ukraine, nor do I make prognostications except for making one – which still stands – that this will go on for quite a while longer and the outcome is uncertain.
That’s more of a prediction-avoidance maneuver than a prediction.
But the recent news from Ukraine is that the Ukrainians have mounted a successful campaign to take back territory from the Russian invaders. That seems to be real and not propaganda. Here’s some evidence that at least some Russians are getting the picture – and by the way, the video shows a more fascinating give-and-take from people on both sides than you usually (or ever?) see on US television. Well worth watching:
Russian chat shows always had the “NATO shill guest” who said relatively sensible things and could then be torn down by the others.
But Boris Nadezhdin here speaking some dangerous truths, you wonder if he might simply get arrested soon. pic.twitter.com/KwF8xqaEn4
— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) September 11, 2022
You can read a very glowing pro-Ukraine account of the situation here. For example:
Not only was the Kharkiv offensive well-coordinated and efficiently executed, it completely surprised Russian forces in the area. That’s extraordinary in today’s information age. Yet the Ukrainians managed it, completely blocking any leaks about a forthcoming attack. Ukraine’s operational security bespeaks both a skilled military and a nation united by Russia’s unprovoked aggression.
The Kharkiv counter-offensive was opportunistic in the best sense. Unlike the battle now unfolding in the southern region of Kherson, just north of Crimea, the battle for Kharkiv was not prepared for months. In the south, Ukrainian officials repeatedly said they were planning to retake the region. Then, having lured more troops into an indefensible position, they prepared the battlefield by severing bridges and exploding ammunition dumps, cutting off the Russians’ resupply. Doing that in Kharkiv would have eliminated any chance for surprise.
Surprise — followed by swift movement across Kharkiv — was possible because Moscow had too few troops to hold that hostile territory. Its forces were thin from the start of the invasion last February, when Russia expected to seize the capital city with blitzkrieg speed. When that failed and the war dragged on, Moscow found it impossible to adequately reinforce its positions with well-trained soldiers. It simply didn’t have them. It had to rely on mercenaries, conscripts, and poorly trained cannon fodder. Russia’s already-thin forces in Kharkiv were depleted even further as military planners began withdrawing troops and equipment and moving them south to fight in Kherson.
I think a fairly important aspect of the differential is morale, and it may be quite telling over the long run.
You can read more here as well as here.
While it is right to celebrate the Russian rout, the war may be entering a far more dangerous phase.
Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be…
Celebrations may be premature if Putin seeks to achieve through nuclear weapons what he could not with manpower. To remain silent now, downplay the threat that Russia might use its tactical nuclear weapons, or let fear govern policy will mean the end of the post-World War II liberal order.
As the Ukraine war enters a crucial new phase, it is time both to step up deterrence and plan for what comes after Russian first use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Something of which the Biden administration appears quite incapable.
I may have cause to eat the words, but I tire of talk of using nuclear weapons. Unless, the people sounding this alarm–repeatedly–really believe that Putin is crazy. Using such terminology does get attention,and sells whatever media is being flacked.
I don’t think the U.S. or NATO would respond in kind. But, the response would have to be ‘robust’. In fact, I suggest that any nation that did not participate in the response, would itself become a Pariah. On another level, I don’t know if Ukraine has nukes; it is rumored that they do. If so, there is no reason to believe that they would not retaliate in kind.
Recent news suggests that the Russian ‘elites’ are sick of Putin and his war. To date, as far as we know, there has not been a coordinated effort against him. If I were going to bet, I would bet that one will materialize before any nuclear weapons are expended.
FWIW, more about the military situation here (“Scenes from a Russian Rout”) including videos and a map of the area around Kharkiv: “Things in Ukraine are moving so fast that the only thing I can be sure of is that what I post here will probably be obsolete before I press the Publish button. What was a very successful Ukrainian counter offensive in Kharkiv Oblast is now a massive rout of Russian forces throughout the extent of their northeast line. All of Kharkiv (save a tiny bit east of the Oskil River) has been liberated.”
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52610
It is more likely that our wide-open boarder will be exploited for retaliatory terrorist attacks. I saw that Hamas was in Moscow.
I don’t think it was an opportunistic attack. I think it was planned. I was wondering why the Ukrainians were telegraphing their attack against Kherson so much. It looks like they just lured a good bulk of Russian troops to north of the Dnieper River and then dropped the bridges behind them. They won’t be able to easily redeploy from there, and with winter coming their supply situation may get very dire.
A well planned counter-attack. The Russian army is incompetent.
Oh, and as for tactical nukes or gas (more likely), that would be a stupid move by the Russians. Using either would further isolate them and probably open up the OK for overt Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.
I too am very doubtful that tactical nukes will be used by Putin. It could far too easily escalate into the use of strategic nuclear weapons. In which case, it’s over for us, as well as for Russia.
As for Ukraine’s gaining of territory, time will tell if it lasts. Yet Ukraine’s future is far more dependent upon not losing access to the Black Sea, which is clearly where Russia’s strategic focus has been. Putin and his strategic advisers intend to take Odessa and if they do, it will profoundly affect Ukraine, as it reduces Ukraine to a landlocked country.
Find it fascinating that NOT ONE commentator in that video—not even the one who seems relatively sane—CAN ACKNOWLEGE that Russia invaded Ukraine and has been doing its best to destroy as much as it believes it can get away with.
And that Ukraine has been fighting back.
Guess they’re as insane, twisted and SINISTER—in their own way—as is “Biden”…and the Democratic Party nomenklatura and its avid, unhinged supporters…PROPAGANDA playing a HUGE role in both cases.
(Just another “Biden”-Putin nexus??…)
Looks like the Democrats aren’t the only ones who know how to manufacture and then take advantage of distractions….
“Large-Scale Fighting Breaks Out Between Armenia & Azerbaijan”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-scale-fighting-breaks-out-between-armenia-azerbaijan
(One hopes it turns out to be just another skirmish of a sort…in that drawn-out conflict.)
An added thought to my original post. Consider the personal risks for Putin; and anyone who was complicit. If he used nuclear weapons, then he, and they, would most surely be charged as war criminals. Travel beyond the friendly confines would be at the risk of hanging. I know. A reasonable person would say that Putin and his allies are already war criminals. Unfortunately, the international community needs another straw or two before the camel’s back finally breaks. The use of nukes would do it. It certainly would put the lie to the pretense that this war is about liberating territory that is rightfully Russian; and they would stand naked, so to speak, before the world. People are scared to death of nukes. There would be near universal revulsion. Putin’s crimes could no longer be papered over by those who now either side with him, or are under his thumb. Since his accomplices share the same personal consequences. I should think that would stiffen a lot of opposition within the Russian hierarchy.
FWIW, this is from James Kunstler today. The facts, as they develop and can be known, will prove or disprove his hypothesis. I don’t know what to think, apart from suspecting that, whatever else may be going on there, Ukraine (especially since the 2014 Maidan “color revolution”) is little more than a laundromat for ill-gotten gains.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/is-war-what-you-asked-for/
. . . the US has poured money into Ukraine at the rate of about $10-billion a month for the purpose of prolonging the struggle in Ukraine. We’re doing this at a moment in history when the US faces grave financial breakdown, along with the countries of the European Union and the UK. Nothing about our involvement in Ukraine is in the interest of the American people. Our foreign policy establishment has shown a blind animus toward Russia for no apparent good reason.
At this point reasonable people might conclude that it is for a bad reason. Increasingly it looks like a desperate diversion from the technocrat coup perpetrated by a supranational cabal emanating out of Davos, as led by the megalomaniacs at the World Economic Forum (WEF). The coupsters also happen to be intriguing behind America’s Democratic Party and the White House regime of the obvious tool, “Joe Biden.”
The New York Times today is ballyhooing the Ukraine military’s “lightning advance” east of Kharkov. I’d argue that what The Times wants you to see is not exactly what is happening. Rather the Russians appear to have made an orderly, tactical retreat from the outskirts of Kharkov, inducing the NATO-trained Ukraine forces eastward across the Siverskyi Donets River and out into the flat, open country where they will be cut off, cauldroned, and slaughtered. Everything that NATO and the US have done in this conflict has been a stupid move. Why should this one be an exception?
At the same time, Russia has hit a number of power generation plants around Ukraine, leaving many Ukrainians without lights, hot water, communications — in short, what’s needed to remain civilized. This was exactly what Russia had hoped to avoid the past eight months, but the obdurate pathological idiocy of our country’s leaders has forced Russia to send a harsher message to provoke some rational thought here about ending this conflict. There is even chatter on the web that Russia is about to declare that the special military operation is now a war, with all that implies about targets.
MollyG posts James Kunstler: But Russian Milbloggers have been reduced to hurling insults in recent days!
One motivation of the US’ aid to Ukraine would be to hollow out even further Russia’s armed forces, demonstrate to the sensible among them not to try this again even if only the Boy Scouts were your enemy.
A correction: Putin doesn’t use the nukes. He has to order the guys in the chain of command to use the nukes. And they will have to wonder what comes back at them. There won’t be any indication of incoming prior and requiring emptying the canisters to avoid their destruction. This will be a first-strike op, inviting…what? For Putin?
Honestly you see everything else that is going on this proxy war led by the same people who regard all of us as terrorists is just another way to suck this country dry so China is at the top of the heap
Geoffrey:
Yes Vlad has been straining at the leash to take Odessa since February, All those bridges that supply Kerson are evidence of how well that has turned out. And of course the Moskva is still feinting at the bottom of the Black Sea, Forgot those details Geoffrey?
If the Kerch bridge from Russia to the Crimea (aka Ukraine) is compromised it might be game over for that Vlad grand Crimea plan too,
Ukraine currently has the initiative. They aren’t fools, and have Vlad pretty well sized up IMO. This isn’t a 13 minute war.
Vlad’s most destructive ploys seem to be launching cruise missiles from over the Caspian Sea targeting Ukrainian power plants and cities far from the front lines. That is when they aren’t dropping rounds near the largest nuclear power station in eastern Europe. Funny what an opponent of the WEF/Davos/ and NATO is reduced to. Pariah is as pariah does.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BU3gK3BQbRA
Eh. All good thoughts to the Ukrainians defending their country but the people now touting this counteroffensive are pretty much the same people who first predicted that Ukraine would collapse before Russian aggression and then predicted the IMMINENT collapse of the Russian army and economy months ago.
Not that the Ukes are having some success now but we’ve never gotten even a vaguely accurate or in-context view of what’s going on over there, which should concern people but apparently doesn’t.
Mike
“They aren’t fools, and have Vlad pretty well sized up IMO. This isn’t a 13 minute war.”
Dude.
Ukraine population = 44 million
Russia population = 144 million
Ukraine GDP = 155 billion
Russia GDP = 1.48 trillion
Ukraine military budget = 6 billion
Russia military budget = 66 billion
If Russia wants Ukraine, Russia is going to get Ukraine absent the intervention of an outside power. Stop slapping your salami and understand that.
Mike
Bunge:
Just because you can’t bother to try and keep up doesn’t mean that no one else is.
It ain’t over yet. War is foggy.
Here is a different perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyG838jOdwE&t=255sis
Or another
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPuqjcWREL8
Bunge:
Always ready with astute and sophisticated analysis. Not everyone has the same quirks that you revel in. A Bunge thing.
Did you count on your fingers and toes to bring forth that trove of geography and economic wisdom?
Roosia has one thing to sell. oil and gas. Their other main export, weapons, has been shown to be crap. How many Russians will die for Vlad the Destroyer and his grand plan? Do you consider what Vlad’s total mobilization will do to the Roosian economy?
If Roosia wants Japan. If Roosia wants Finland. If Roosia wants Persia. If Roosia wants Afghanistan. Opps. it did.
Don’t be a Bunge. One is enough.
MollyG: “Our foreign policy establishment has shown a blind animus toward Russia for no apparent good reason.”
No good reason? Russia launched a genocidal war of conquest against a European neighbor. It has repeatedly struck civilian targets throughout the country in a war of terror. It has killed Ukrainian civilians by the hundreds of thousands (113,000 in Mariupol alone). It has rounded up hundreds of thousands more and taken them to “filtration” camps in Russia, where those who can be “re-educated” are, and those who can’t are “eliminated” (Russia’s words). It has forcibly removed tens of thousands of children from their parents and sent them to “boarding schools” in Russia, where they are being taught to hate their own parents, their own nation, and their own culture.
There are plenty of reasons for the entire civilized world to have animus for Russia. After all of the above, anyone who doesn’t is on the side of evil.
MollyG: “Rather the Russians appear to have made an orderly, tactical retreat from the outskirts of Kharkov, inducing the NATO-trained Ukraine forces eastward across the Siverskyi Donets River and out into the flat, open country where they will be cut off, cauldroned, and slaughtered.”
An orderly tactical retreat? An orderly tactical retreat that left behind hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, dozens of ammo dumps, and literally food on the table? Are you normally this naive? Do you really think the Moskva was intentionally scuttled because it was old and a replacement was already under construction, as some Putinbots have claimed? Have some self respect and stop parroting obvious Russian propaganda.
MollyG: “Everything that NATO and the US have done in this conflict has been a stupid move.”
This is a war between Russia and the Ukraine. What do NATO and the U. S. have to do with it?
MollyG: “At the same time, Russia has hit a number of power generation plants around Ukraine, leaving many Ukrainians without lights, hot water, communications — in short, what’s needed to remain civilized. “
What great humanitarians, those Russians.
Do you think that makes a difference? Here’s what Zelensky had to say about that.
To the Russians:
It doesn’t sound like they are ever going back to Mother Russia, no matter what Russia, Europe, NATO, or the U. S. say.
@mkent: Do you understand that I was quoting someone else? I provided the link. I also mentioned that I don’t know what is really going on. Neither, I suggest, do you. Ukraine is a black box, and that information vacuum (not to dismiss attempts to fill it with propaganda) appears to be a feature, not a bug. My saying so is not an endorsement of Putin’s behavior in Ukraine.
Kunstler (via MollyG)
MollyG: “The facts, as they develop and can be known, will prove or disprove his hypothesis.”
Seems to me this is as close to a testable hypothesis as we can get in real-time situations.
Let’s see what happens next.
BTW, IMHO, Zelensky’s message to the Russians has a very Churchillian ring to it.
Also, IMO, the people who have been complaining that Zelensky is lacking in appropriate gravitas, by visiting other world leaders and sitting for Vogue photo-shoots, are missing some essential points:
The President of Ukraine is doing PR because that’s what his skill-set covers best. It’s also his job.
There is no reason to believe that the military men actually running the war (whoever they are) will be discommoded by his absences drumming up more of the support that brings in public approval, better weapons, and aid money, any more than Marshall & Eisenhower were hindered by FDR’s travels and fireside chats.
MollyG:
The USA had an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan about a year ago where all went according to plan, or so someone said. Otay.
Ukraine is a wayward Roosian province filled with Nazis and crisis actors? It is just impossible to decide. (sarc)
Thanks for the satire.
If I’d known it was going to be this useful 80 years later, I would have told my dad not to throw out his map of the Eastern Front in 1942 with all the flag pins in it.
FWIW, this is from James Kunstler today.
The man you’re referring to has zero background in any aspect of military operations. A sensible person facing that handicap would be circumspect and tentative in his judgments. He’s past 70, so it’s not as if he hasn’t had time to learn that.
If I know nothing more about Ukraine, I do know what some here think of James Kunstler! He has been wrong about a lot of things and right about many as well. Again, my having quoted Kunstler’s opinion is neither my endorsement of his views nor my endorsement of Putin’s destruction in Ukraine.
Molly G:
It’s okay to quote him, and it’s okay for people to say he’s full of it.
For me, he goes down to zero credibility with these two sentences, and I don’t have to know anything else about him to make that judgment:
“Our foreign policy establishment has shown a blind animus toward Russia for no apparent good reason.”
“Everything that NATO and the US have done in this conflict has been a stupid move. ”
However, in addition, here’s more about Kunstler himself, for those who are interested:
So his background is theater and journalism, and he parlayed that into a nice gig on the tony lecture circuit. His reputation was made by a theory and prediction that didn’t pan out, concerning peak oil. He seems to know nothing about the topic he wrote the most about. My guess is he also knows little or nothing about much of anything else, except how to get attention and perhaps how to write.
His politics are idiosyncratic and a strange combination of things, but I’d call him somewhat of a “plague on both your houses” guy, although he supported Trump and thinks the election was stolen from him. I would guess in foreign policy he’s very much a non-interventionist, and that’s where his Ukraine statements emanate from.
I also mentioned that I don’t know what is really going on. Neither, I suggest, do you. Ukraine is a black box, and that information vacuum (not to dismiss attempts to fill it with propaganda) appears to be a feature, not a bug. My saying so is not an endorsement of Putin’s behavior in Ukraine.
Nope. You can learn a lot from actual videos, which can often be geolocated. This is one of the most videotaped wars ever.
As for Ukraine’s gaining of territory, time will tell if it lasts. Yet Ukraine’s future is far more dependent upon not losing access to the Black Sea, which is clearly where Russia’s strategic focus has been. Putin and his strategic advisers intend to take Odessa and if they do, it will profoundly affect Ukraine, as it reduces Ukraine to a landlocked country.
Russia’s strategic focus at one point was taking over all of Ukraine. That failed badly. Now we are seeing more Russian failure. It is more likely that the Russian troops near Kherson end up prisoners then Putin takes Odessa.
If Russia wants Ukraine, Russia is going to get Ukraine absent the intervention of an outside power. Stop slapping your salami and understand that.
Russia would have to mobilize its forces, so far it has tried using the army it has, along with mercs, etc. Right now Ukraine has the actual advantage in the field. It would take a long time for Russia to reverse that, and that includes lots of pain for Russia.
Roosia wants what Roosia gets. USSR wanted and USSR got, squat. Poor Roosia.
On the Daily Mail’s site today, there are several stories about public criticism of the war on news outlets. Digging deeper into one story has the on camera person blaming the generals, saying that their heads should all be hacked off and put on Putin’s desk.
As usual, the headlines don’t tell the full story. I didn’t look at the other stories, but can assume it’s the same approach being taken. They can blame the generals, but not Putin.
@MBunge
Pull up the same data estimates for the Bolshevik occupied parts of Russia and Estonia circa 1918, or Finland and the USSR in 1940.
A lot hinges on the meaning of “wants.” Obviously the Russian government and plenty others want Ukraine. The question is how BADLY they want it and what they are prepared to suffer in order to secure it. Muscovy engaged in nearly 200 years of incredibly bitter, complicated, multi-faceted struggle in order to secure Ukraine, and the Soviet Union had to do much of that over again in the span of about 50 years and utterly exorbitant costs, not the least of which in manpower.
The fact that Putin and almost every other figure has consistently refused to recognize this as a war, have tried covert It’s-not-technically-mobilization loopholes rather than actual mobilization, and so forth tells me that at least for the moment, they do not want Ukraine badly enough to suffer what might be quite nasty backlash from having to do things like call up the only son of urbanites in Moscow and give Kadyrov yet more power in order to get him on board with a longer war.
This is in sharp contrast to people like Girkin, who have been arguing for formal war and mobilization almost from day 1 and who is claiming the “Special Military Operation” has failed. To avoid going out too far on a limb, it seems that Girkin “wants” Ukraine significantly more than Putin does.
And this is before we talk about how “absent intervention by an outside power” is already a dead letter, as shown by the intervention of foreign trainers and foreign equipment. The question, as before, hinges on the level of intervention; not many would be on board with starting WWIII for Ukraine, but a lot would be on board with allowing convenient “leave” to be taken and for more support.
“The question, as before, hinges on the level of intervention; not many would be on board with starting WWIII for Ukraine, but a lot would be on board with allowing convenient “leave” to be taken and for more support.”
Did you notice the stock market today? Tolerance for “leave” or billions more being shipped to Ukraine could evaporate in a hurry.
And you’re right about the question of how much Russia “wants” Ukraine. Which is why it has been so unbelievably stupid to leave Putin with only two options:
1. Humiliating defeat in Ukraine which probably leads to his overthrow and/or assassination.
2. Getting Ukraine no matter the cost.
Mike
Bunge doesn’t grasp that inflation might, just, maybe have more than one driver (Ukraine war). Maybe other drivers might be the Brandon, green and domestic, burn money policies. Nope, can’t be that.
Because. Bunge.
Roosia gets what Roosia wants. Roosia wanted to attack, not the west or Ukraine, so if Vlad has sh*t options its on them and him. LOL
@MBunge
Yeah, I have. Every single day. Kind of my main source of income until I finish this round of vocational training.
Could, but also could not.
We do not know.
Which was precisely my point.
Ok, I’ll bite. WHY is that “unbelievably stupid” and WHAT would alternative “Third Options” be? And in particular how would they work?
The truth is that absolutely nobody on this Earth has done more to leave Vladimir Putin with only two options than Vladimir Putin. Indeed, he actually had a multitude of “third options” available to him to end this war, such as actually enforcing Minsk I and II and settling in for yet another Frozen Conflict to add to his postage-stamp style collection. And indeed during the latter part of Obama’s reign of error and the Trump Presidency he acted very similarly, waiting for an opportune moment when he believed (correctly) that his rivals in the West were weak and (incorrectly) that victory would be swift and easy.
Why he was a violent enough idiot to think this after years of positional attrition in the Donbas is beyond me, because while I know some parts of the answer (ludicrously rosy intelligence reports from the likes of the FSB and GRU) those ultimately boomarang back onto him. But what is done is done.
Putin has a long, ugly, evil track record of doing this kind of nonsense over and over again. Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia, to name just the most evident and external ones (though the Ingush and Chechens could attest he has used similar domestic policies). If he were the kind of man who knew when to stop pushing on sore spots and come to negotiated settlements, he wouldn’t be in the position he is in, and neither would at least three countries unfortunate enough to border him.
At this stage I do think the only proper remedies are humiliating defeat, or a pyrrhic “victory” or draw that is so draining it will make even him think twice about this and help incentivize the EUnichs and others to get out of bed with him. That does not mean it should be our highest priority by any means (especially not with Dark Brandon’s handlers increasingly threatening our existence as a free country), but it should place highly on our policy wish list.
In any case, there is no benefit whatsoever to condoning this kind of bad behavior yet again, like what happened with the Clintonian Reset, Astana, and Minsk in the hopes that maybe the situation will get better enough later.
The fact that Putin seems more than content to try and swallow more than he can easily chew and is setting himself up for such a humiliation just makes the calculations better from my point of view.
@MollyG
Indeed. I know which side I’m betting on. To be honest I feel Neo is way too generous to Kunstler. He has always struck me as being a Pat Buchanan style example of most things wrong with right wing isolationists and a reminder of how I became a Neo-Con.
That doesn’t mean he is necessarily WRONG (indeed, I think his views on Trump and domestic America are more important), but his failure to grasp what “Peak Oil” actually meant and how oil prospecting works speaks to a staggering lack of in-depth analysis.
I’d go the other way. It’s a laundromat for ill-gotten gains, and on a massive scale, do not get me wrong. It also has a culture and politics that would make a lot of the Ukraine Flag Pin usernames in the Left shilling for it scream like they have over Poland.
But it is also a major country, with very real people in it. And I’d wager that the dividing lines for Euromaidan were not over whether or not to continue embezzling or “washing” ill-gotten gains but on more salient issues like the tariff arguments and the nature of Ukraine’s foreign policy.
No, it is what Putin and the Kremlin’s War Hawks asked for when they started this in 2014, and they have gotten it much harder than they expected or had it given to before, like in 2008 Georgia.
It’s worth noting that Zelenskyy
Next Question.
Which is quite rational all things considered, especially since- speaking on an utterly practical and cynical level- it is better to spend money supplying and supporting Ukrainians to fight, kill, and die to Russian military units than it is to do so with Americans to do the same job.
And we have already started to see repercussions for that. We now know the Ukrainians destroyed one of five Russian capital ships active on this planet (and I use “active” in an extremely generous term, given the crippled nature of the Admiral Kuznetsov and other issues). The Russian Navy in the Black Sea has no capital ship, undermining the Kremlin’s ability to dominate the Black Sea at no direct risk to the US.
And this is before we talk about the land war (where by most accounts Russia’s Regulars and Contract Soldiers have suffered fairly heavy losses in line with their Ukrainian Loyalist enemies) and the Air War (which has seriously jeopardized the Russian Air Force’s credibility).
Simply put, this has been a pretty good “return on investment” in terms of grand power, especially for the US since it is less directly affected by the admittedly nightmarish food and oil effects.
And this is sidestepping the key issue. The US did not start this war. Ukraine did not start this war. Putin’s government did. So if Putin wishes to hurl his troops’ heads against intense resistance- and thus diminish his own ability to pose a conventional threat to US and others while degrading his prestige- I am more than willing to provide his enemies the ammo to do it.
This I agree with, but it kind of makes me ask “and you’re noticing this now?!?!”
The horrifying fact is that the US has been facing grave financial breakdown for longer than I’ve been alive; it has gotten way more acute since Obama but the foundations were rotting from immense debt. And frankly the culprit for that isn’t aid to Ukraine or any military or diplomatic spending (Hideously corrupt, inefficient, and so on as they often are). It is social spending at home, but that would involve confronting very, Very hard truths about modern finance and the need to tighten the belt that very few people seem inclined to talk about, let alone actually do. The author seems to fall into this, with the implication that our financial situation would be so much better if only we divested ourselves from the world and thus could afford All Good Things. When in reality it would likely leave us still in debt and with even less resources and stability to pay it down.
I do despair at the pork our government wastes, but to be brutally honest I have more faith in money going to NLAWs in Ukraine serving the American interest than most forms of domestic spending we would get under Biden.
I disagree. The American people have vested interests in reasonably peaceful international relations, the ABILITY to conduct free trade (whether or not it is wise to modify this with protectionist measures is another matter, but it is better to have the option even if just to walk away from it), and for American credibility- already tarnished as it is by Biden and co- to remain intact. It also does not have much incentive in violent, anti-Western dictatorships gaining power by state terrorism.
As such, all of these argue for opposing Putin’s invasion. One does not have to sign up to some kind of Neo-Con crusade to Make the World Safe For Democracy (TM) in order to recognize that our Republic hardly needs more humiliation than it already has, and that this would be compounded by further tearing up things like the Budapest Memorandum (in which we guaranteed Ukrainian denuclearization in exchange for pinkie promises to defend its independence and territorial integrity) and putting the global markets at the hands of a backstabbing bald nutcase who alternates between palling with the PRC and appeasing Islamists (indeed, his vassal Kadyrov is basically trying to turn Chechnya into a thinly veiled theocracy) while claiming he is “really” a strong traditionalist defender of Christian Civilization.
I disagree. I have PLENTY bad to say about the foreign policy establishment, but a large part of that actually came from the increasing, blind, desperate attempts to get Vladimir Putin to friend us. Which is why just about every President to enter office since H Dubya has spent their early term trying to give an olive branch to the Kremlin- and by early Clinton to Putin himself- and bind up the old wounds, only to get repeatedly sucker-punched and played for dupes, alienating them for much of the rest of the term only to then be replaced by someone else.
Indeed, the “blind animus” was so weak that even Biden’s puppetmasters- after sustaining a smear campaign of years about RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA against the man who inaugurated lethal US aid to Ukraine and who oversaw the blowing away of hundreds of Russian Paramilitary troops in Syria- had him inaugurated by cooing dovishly and promising that things would be ok.
It has made me irritated. Mark Steyn and others pointed out that this would probably be folly. I might transcribe a portion of his book, but in America Alone about 20 years ago he was talking about how Putin and the wider Kremlin Bureaucratic/Military cliques he represented would calculate that the world would become bipolar or multipolar, and that they would obtain better results aligning against the US.
That has proven prophetic.
This might be true- and it certainly helps explain a lot of the virtue signaling- but I think there are two sides of this coin. Namely that the escalation of the invasion was timed to exploit the distraction caused by 2020 and the kangaroo antics we’ve seen here. It’s also worth noting that while I have no love for the WEF and Davoise and co, this was not a majorly partisan issue (and indeed it still isn’t, amazingly). Trump was consistent in condemning the invasion and supporting Ukraine, and ironically some of the Brandon “Government”‘s endeavors have built off of that. The idea that the focus on Ukraine is ONLY a diversion from the Deep State’s misdeeds here is misguided, if not outright dishonest.
ALSO: can I point out the thread that this idiot Kunstler draws but CONVIENENTLY does not examine?
That if this is truly serving as a distraction from examining the 2020 steal and fallout, that the ongoing invasion ACTUALLY HELPS THE AFOREMENTIONED TECHNOCRATS/WEF/DAVOISE BY DRAWING ATTENTION AWAY FROM THEM and THUS represents Putin doing them a favor (even if unintended or at best secondary)?
That should be more argument to have the war end with a Russian repulse as quickly as possible, precisely so we do not have it clouding our horizon and so that the Putin Boogeyman gets deflated beyond credible use for attacking our freedoms here.
Stupid and petty. There’s no reason to put lightning advance in airquotes, because that clearly is what it is, even if one concludes (as I do) that it is likely not the unambiguous victory the likes of the NYT are making it out to be and even if it led into some kind of Cannae-style master trap that rebounding to defeat the Ukrainians.
Sure, it’s not EXACTLY what is happening, but it contains much of the essential truth.
BWAHAHAHAHA.
Seriously, this is why I claim Neo’s discussion of Kunstler was entirely too generous.
Almost nobody- including chosen mouthpieces of the Kremlin- is claiming this was a very “orderly withdrawal”, as shown by examples like the confirmed loss of equipment and even manpower (including officers) captured. This points to a serious crisis in morale and cohesion, and not to an orderly withdrawal. And it has become the subject of open controversy even on the likes of Sputnik and RT.
So if those sources all point to this not being some kind of masterful retreat, I’m sure as hell not going to buy this freakshow’s diagnosis of it as that.
Now, let me add some mitigation here. Maybe this was legitimately the best way they could handle the result. I have often criticized and condemned the Russian regime’s conduct in Ukraine, but I WILL give them credit for showing some unusual and unconventional signs of mature decision-making, being willing to repeatedly eat shit sandwiches by giving up large swaths of captured territory (in events that it would HAVE to know would be demoralizing to its supporters and galvanizing to its enemies) in order to preserve things like its fighting forces. This was most evident with the decision to retreat all the way from Kyiv to back over the Belarusian border in order to avoid possibly being cut off and destroyed, and it might be showing here, where in spite of the magnitude of the territorial gains (as well as the previous cost the Russians suffered in conquering them), the very understrength nature of the Russian forces, and the relatively little of the Russian units were destroyed wholesale and the Ukrainians seem to have taken serious casualties on the advance.
So maybe they are luring the Ukrainians into some kind of Cannae style obliteration (THOUGH I DOUBT IT for reasons I’ll mention later), or at least were making the best of a bad situation and saving what parts of their commands they could. But it was still a deeply imperfect shambles that handed significant territory, equipment, and troops over to the enemy, all of which the Ukrainians can now use (in their own ways; there’s a reason why “Russian soldiers messaging from Ukraine” is its own genre) and all of which the Russians will have to retake.
Yeah, this reads more like what Kunstler WISHES will happen rather than what ACTUALLY will happen.
Now, maybe I’m wrong (God knows I’ve been wrong enough in general, including on this war), but I doubt it. Starting with a few things.
Firstly: Even in campaigns where this ACTUALLY WAS clearly the intention and result, such as the Russian/Separatist combined attack on Debalteve…. RusFor has .kind of sucked at actually cauldroning and slaughtering the Ukrainian forces. Most of the Ukrainian Loyalists at Debaltseve were able to blast their way through the siege perimeter and march (often on foot) through practically uncontested terrain to reach their own lines again, and this was with a much more systematic and deliberate preparation.
Likewise, similar Kessel Crushing by the Russians in Chechnya and especially Syria were reliant on much more methodical, costly sieges involving almost chess-like preparation of resources, numerical and firepower superiority, and blasting the enemy down, all while the enemy was much less mobile than the Ukrainian Loyalists are.
None of this bodes well for this situation, especially not after several months of high intensity losses in equipment and a panic in command.
There’s also the fact that such a Cauldron Battle would need concentration of forces to do it. The Kharkhiv Front is precisely a front where the advances were because the Russians were strung out, undermanned, and so subject to a push. The Russians will need time to concentrate forces for this, especially if they want to make it a crushing blow.
And finally, there’s the OTHER lay of the land and optics. The handling of this offensive was so bad that Russian government mouthpieces are looking for scapegoats and explanations, and media is full of prisoners, captured equipment, and armed Ukrainian loyalists standing next to unguarded border checkpoints to Russia Proper. This is a political boondoggle for the Russian government and military and has led to the likes of Girkin (hardly a dove) calling the operation lost.
I highly doubt this would be allowed with this kind of magnitude in losses if it were just a feint to lure the Ukrainians into a killing ground.
But EVEN MORE IMPORTANT is that by obtaining the border with the Russian Fed proper, the Ukrainians have more strategic depth. It’s unlikely that some politics would prevent the Russians from driving a task force across the border, but it does mean they have longer to go and the Ukrainians would have more time and space to be forewarned that something was up and to pull back from the trap.
Again, maybe I’m wrong and maybe this is just a masterful piece of misdirection.
This tells me- in case there was any doubt- that Kunstler is speaking more out of passion and bias than any actual objective measure, unless he wants to argue that shipments of things like the HIMARS were “stupid” in spite of their manifest benefits.
There’s something rather disgusting about this, with the implication that civilized people suffering in a war zone as a result of this will not be able to remain civilized, in spite of clear evidence to the contrary. Of course some won’t, but that doesn’t mean it will.
Yeah, this is utter bullshit. I have seen footage of Donetsk Airport and what was done with it when RusFed-err… excuse me, “Separatist” artillery was done with it. And indeed the central reason for the failures of Minsk I and Minsk II was the Russian Government’s refusal to fulfill its central tenants by WITHDRAWING HEAVY ARTILLERY.
It also is disgusting because it’s victim blaming, akin to the abuser’s “Look at what you made me do by not surrendering!”
Now don’t get me wrong. The US and other Western Allies have hardly been BLAMELESS in conduct like this, and indeed were I so inclined I could talk and compare about the Russian military’s artillery doctrine compared to that of the US Army and its conduct in things like the Battle of Aachen in 1944 and the Battle of Manila in 1945.
But even those would be fallacious. Aachen and Manila were horrifying battles that saw the concentrated use of US Artillery to blast dense urban centers to pieces in order to clear a frontline and destroy entrenched, fanatical resistance fighting inside them, often to the active detriment of the civilians. They were not about bullshit like “sending a harsher message” (beyond maybe reemphasizing a grim determination to win the battle) or to “provoke some rational thought” or whatever mealy-mouthed rationalization this scumbag wishes to paint onto an atrocity. They were about destroying enemy combatants at the front rather than destroying or displacing civilians behind it (though of course that happened); for direct tactical benefit rather than supposed strategic benefit.
This is something different, and on some level Kunstler KNOWS this is different by his wording. But he wants to downplay this and pass it off as some kind of understandable reaction by the Russian dictatorship to mean old NATO, in spite of what he describes being essentially indiscriminate attacks against civilian targets, a known terror tactic.
That’s disgusting, and I hope I can articulate why I see it as such, MollyG.
I’ve been wrong about many things and right about many things too, in much the fashion you characterize Kunstler as, and I’m freely willing to admit it. But this kind of nonsense points to what I think are far greater, grotesquer flaws. Not just in judgement and evidence evaluation, but above all in sanity and morality.
None of that may be particularly important in urgent causes where we are on similar sides like the 2020 fiasco, but that doesn’t mean we should be blind either.
Here’s Zeihan’s latest video on Ukriane’s amazing victory over the Russians.
He’s gone on a month-long hike in Colorado, hence the plain background. I didn’t think he would do videos during the hike, but he is keeping track and doing videos on the trail.
–Peter Zeihan, “The Ukrainians Strike Back”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAD684eczq8
Zeihan admits to being surprised, but notes Russia should not be counted out. For example, Russia all but lost WW II early to the Nazis, then pulled it together with their sheer military bulk and marched to Berlin … with a little help from Uncle Sam.
Edit: in the interests of being completely fair to Putin and the Russian government and military, Donetsk Airport was very much in the mood of the Walled City of Manila and Aachen I mentioned before, trying to dig out entrenched defenders fighting tooth and nail.
But it points to systematic use of artillery and other area weapons in urban areas by the Russian military, and while Donetsk Airport can be militarily and legally justified a lot of the other sloppy strikes and whatnot can’t be.
@huxley. I have issues with Zeihan (especially his demonization of Trump and adulation of Brandon) but he is right there. This war is probably going to run longer, and even if by some miracle it did not there are not real benefits to assuming so. The question is what the Kremlin will do from here, how the fighting around Kherson will go, and if the Kremlin will do things like push the mobilization button.
1) ‘Murica, 2) China.
1) in Deir ez Zor, Syria, the Russian Group Wagner crossed the Euphrates River planning to trash a Kurdish infantry force on the east side. That Group Wagner was allowed to cross the river, at which point, Predator drones blew the bridge. Then, more drones, and A-10 (ground attack aircraft), an AC-130 gunship, a swarm of F-15 (interceptors), F-15 Strike eagle (ground attack) aircraft, at least one BUFF (B-52), a bunch of support aircraft (Command & Control, AWACS, Tankers, etc., ~150 total) appeared and attacked. I read that two tracked vehicles from Wagner, survived. A tank and an IFV that were guarding the western approach to the blown bridge. I have never seen a count of the Arab Shiite infantry whose bodies were left inthe desert.
The Russians ” know” that if they encounter two ‘Muricans, one is a distraction and the other is about to do or has done something really nasty. Shredded bodies in the desert, nasty.
2) All mentions of China suggest a friendship between Moscow and Beijing. Perhaps. But everyone knows that the only true friend of China is China. Russia has to keep a significant portion of its military forces in reserve since China has ancient claims on the oil and gas-rich Siberia. If there is a nuclear exchange with the west, the surviving Russians will have to learn Chinese.
This isn’t a straight forward game like checkers. Biden, and his diaper team ain’t too bright, but there are still those with braid on their covers and ribbons on their chests who know that the rule is that there are no rules.
Putin is a worry. He is smart, but he only made the rank of Major in the KGB, so he has never seen the workings of the higher level strategic game. The Chinese and the ‘Muricans, both play with unusual strategies. A, B, C, is for novices.
Most discussions approach the Ukrainian situation considering simple levels of interaction. war is never simple.
@Mike-SMO Well said on the whole, though I do have some caveats.
Firstly: I agree that the only true friend of China is China, and even that gets strained when one understands the roiling instability and political elite infighting it suffers, but the Central State has always had interest in vassals, and is at least willing to milk the Russians for what they could get.
Secondly: To be fair to the Russians, I think they have a decent grasp of unusual strategies; a friend who at least convincingly claims to be retired US Air Force Intelligence argued that Snowden (whatever one thinks of him) fled to Russia because they were the only side willing and competent enough to protect him. This and other skill at unconventional and “ungentlemanly” warfare is the kernal of truth at the heart of the Muh Russia narrative the Left likes to push.
In many ways, I’d argue they seem to be having trouble dealing with CONVENTIONAL strategies and carrying them out; whether it’s getting logistics squared away, managing a competent and quick set piece attack, or limiting casualties. They’re not utter fools like say IS’s squad level tactics were, and it would be a mistake to underestimate them, but it’s worth considering.
Thirdly: It’s worth noting that Putin seems to have spent much of his KGB career in a decidedly administrative role, largely climbing to his rank more due to an adroit sense of playing politics, knowing which horse to bet on, and a gift for embezzling resource and not being killed than being someone with the intelligence accolades of an Andropov. He’s still dangerous don’t get me wrong and he has almost certainly gotten better since then, but apparently not so much on some basics such as checking the reliability of foreign intelligence.
But as you said, war is not simple. Very much the opposite.
Just a few questions…(asking for a friend…)
1. Why, in the lead-up to the current war, did Biden declare that Russia could swallow the two eastern Ukraine provinces (i.e., before he was compelled to retract)?
2. Why, in the several days before Russia attacked Ukraine, did Americans warn Ukraine that a Russian attack was imminent but Ukraine continually questioned these warnings while claiming that it had no idea what the Americans were talking about?
3. Why, in the initial stages of the Russian attack (or perhaps even before the attack, I don’t recall exactly), did Biden propose to Zelensky that the Americans would exfiltrate him and his family (and perhaps other government officials, I don’t recall exactly) out of Ukraine for his, and their, protection? (And why did Biden repeat this proposal several weeks into the war?)
4. Why was/is “Biden” relying on the Russians to finalize a “deal” with Iran? And to what extent, if any, has such reliance on Russia to “re-establish” this deal—Obama’s “signature” foreign policy “achievement”—influenced US-Russia relations WRT the Ukraine war?
5. Why does “Biden”‘s policy to significantly reduce America’s energy sources and availiblity appear to be in TOTAL SYNC with Putin’s policy to deny energy to W. Europe?
6. To what extent does Putin’s insistence on his right (AKA “responsibility”) to wage “defensive” war against “Nazi” Ukraine, “Biden”‘s decision to help Ukraine defend itself, and “Biden” ‘s almost single-minded pursuit of creating, generating and EXACERBATING any and every possible crisis—while denying that such crises even exist, or insisting that they are “transitory” or temporary, or blaming them on others—in order to DISTRACT from “his” true intentions: to achieve absolute power in the US and to “TOTALLY REALIGN the balance of power” in other parts of the world (e.g., the Middle East and East Asia…though in the former case, “REALIGN the balance of power” is a euphemism for “DESTROY the Zionist hegemon”)?
IOW, why do “Biden” and Putin seem to be on the same wavelength when it comes to the no-longer amusing concept of “Weapons of Mass Distraction”?
(And if DISTRACTION is the key here, what does it mean WRT this war ending any time soon?)
To conclude: Kunstler may be at least partially (largely?) CORRECT in blaming America for Putin’s decisions; but—due to “Biden”‘s rampant deceit, cunning and misdirection—for ENTIRELY wrong reasons. (And in this he is, of course, not alone…)
Yikes, #6 is a bit off-kilter…
Change
“To what extent does…”
to
“To what extent do…”
Change
“…in order to DISTRACT…”
to
“…help “Biden” to DISTRACT…”
Almost OT: before the military front developments, the subject of this thread, I’d wondered about the Ukrainians themselves.
Half of refugees fled to Poland, yet McDonalds and other chains were restarting their operations in most of Ukraine? How to fit this picture with the image of a war torn country.
Well, the war has stabilised to the East, if joypad mostly Far East.
For example, at the end of August a Ukraine video blogger travels from central Poland to visit he and his wife’s apartment in Kiev.
Things look very much normal there in central Ukraine. A friend looking after his place looks like many neighbours who’d stayed — possessing a giant ring of house keys!
This sort of positive civil society or neighbourliness doesn’t generate news here. But this and rhe stabilisation of the war front are both summer facts of life absent to my news-headspace, but for video bloggers like the above man.
To conclude: Kunstler may be at least partially (largely?) CORRECT in blaming America for Putin’s decisions;
This is lunacy.
Yes, let’s hope so.
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
I’ll add another:
7. Why did Biden even bring up the possibility, even likelihood, of Ukrainian membership to NATO (especially while Stoltenberg, almost simultaneously, was pouring cold water on the idea)?
Because they were out of sync?
Um, well, maybe…
Oh, heck, here’s another:
8. What might “I’ll have more flexibility” mean?….
Kunstler is a crank, the Brandon junta (Good Idea Faires run amok) makes a Xi fire drill look coordinated and intentional, and Vlad is responsible for this war.
Barry Meislin,
You ask interesting questions, but your conclusion is wrong.
However, with regard to your questions, you might want to consider that the Biden administration isn’t competent. Biden’s actions are not those of a competent actor accomplishing goals. He is often reacting to the bad results he has created or enabled.
You’re right, Don. Biden isn’t competent. (Nor compos mentis).
“Biden” is another story altogether…
If you mean the administration, it isn’t competent, either.
@TJ Well said. Though I’d also note that there’s been a long history of Ukrainians and others migrating to Poland semi-seasonally or opportunistically to work for better pay and circumstances there and transmit funds back; in a society at war there’s only so much value to having non-combatants around (especially after you’ve gotten enough to keep society functioning and fulfill auxiliary roles like power and medicine) when they could be essentially raising more funds for the war effort abroad.
As for McDonalds, I’d concur; this war has largely been limited to the East and Central of the country, with few exceptions. There also “might” be some under the table shenanagins with Brandon and others trying to provide carrots to McDonalds to reopen for the purpose of morale and indirect, deniable support. Really, the way the major food chains are integrated into the US War machine is both heartening and concerning, since it really makes you ask about how this would prop up behemoths and squelch competition.
“This is lunacy.”
If you think America electing Biden and Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal disaster didn’t influence Putin’s thinking, you are an idiot.
Mike
“…it isn’t competent, either.”
Its—most assured—competence (and zeal) lies in the realm of destruction, of dishonesty and deceit;
of vendettas, violence and chaos;
of subversion, intimidation and terror.
Of what it refers to as “transformation”.
E.g., here’s a repost that describes, or rather recapitulates WRT the continued saga of “Biden”‘s love affair with Iran, the level of its monstrous—Obaman—elaborate intrigue, cunning inventiveness, clever sophistication…and SHEER DISHONESTY…in the theater of “foreign affairs”…all, of course, concealed by a complicit, colluding media:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/america-regional-integration-scheme-benefits-iran-deal-obama-biden
The Russian Victory Missed by Everyone – Military History Not Visualized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SooynsCBOr0
Basically Roosian invasion of Ukraine was immediately preceded by cyber attack on the Ukrainian government information systems and communication and by a cyber attack on the air defense systems. The attack on the air defense systems was of course coupled with missile attacks on Ukrainian hardware, Unfortunately for Vlald and Roosia, the Ukrainians had een subject to eight (8) years of cyber attacks already so they were not hobbled by Vlad. Eight (8) years of cyber attacks.
So it was a Roosian Victory that failed. Elon Musk and Microsoft helped the Ukrainians a great deal it seems.
Poor Vlad. His 13 minutes of success.
Saturday bonus!
Ukraine’s counter-offensives – “Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv” – Perun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B93tLs39pQo
Roosia gets what Roosia wants, good and hard.
A comment from
Ukraine’s counter-offensives – “Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv” – Perun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B93tLs39pQo
Jared Loiben
3 hours ago
Russia: We are the second strongest military in the world.
Ukraine: “The world” is a weird way to say “Ukraine.”