John Podesta’s back in the White House, like in Obama and Clinton days. We had these permanent government, revolving door types in the old days, but people respected them at least a little (not that they always should have). The Wise Men. Today we still have them, but they’re all cheap hacks. Or were they always that and people just didn’t notice?
Does Dan McLaughlin ever make an utterance that is something other than irritating and vaguely repulsive?
huxley recommended a pundit, Peter Zeihan so I listened to a Modern Wisdom podcast* with him.
I want to start by emphasizing, despite anything negative I will write about Zeihan going forward, I think his work and approach are extremely important. The things he focuses on regarding nations; their natural resources, their ability to exploit those resources, their birth rates, their healthcare systems, their military strength… These are all extremely important in any discussion of what the future may bring. They should be foremost in most discussions about the current and future states of affairs. For example, almost no discussions of climate change include the natural fact that world populations seem likely to decrease, and perhaps soon.
Peter Zeihan seems very well read on the things he references. I won’t quibble with his data. My main disappointment when listening to this interview was the specificity and certainty with which he discussed future outcomes. He is not bullish on China’s prospects at all, for example. And he gives a lot of specific data for why he thinks China’s future is dismal. But there are so many variables involved. And, even if he’s correct about China’s lack of human and material capital in the ensuing decades; that very issue may cause China to do drastic things. Japan grew quite bellicose in the 20th century due to its lack of natural resources and that had major implications on much of the world. For example, what if China decides to import a lot of low-skilled labor from The Philippines or Indonesia? What if China successfully gets more natural resources from other countries through military or economic intervention?
In Zeihan’s defense, it was a one hour interview covering a wide range of topics. Maybe he has unstated reasons for being as sure as he is, but with the number of variables involved (including unpredictable events like earthquakes, drought and volcanic eruption) he seems more certain than is warranted.
I found what he said about France and Turkey particularly interesting. I hadn’t been thinking much about either country when thinking about the future and Zeihan gives some good reasons for being very bullish on France’s prospects and Turkey also has a lot of things going for it.
Another interesting thing Zeihan spoke about; the continuing ripple of the baby boom and lull we are likely to be subject to in America. During peak years of a booming generation’s consumption (ages 30 – 50, or so**) markets will be strong, the economy will be good. During lulls things will be slow. The Millennials are the kids of the Boomers and Millennials are having kids, buying homes, mini-vans, vacationing at Disney World, etc…
I definitely recommend listening to Zeihan, or someone like him, because the numbers really do matter. Xi can have all the growth plans he wants, but if there is no one to consume the development, it is likely to collapse in on itself.
**I may not have those time spans correct. I don’t recall the specifics from the podcast.
Pre-WWII Italian Communist Party member and Marxist theoretician Antonio Gramsci’s diabolical plan to use a patient, several generation’s long campaign of propaganda rather than force to displace and “fundamentally transform” ultimately every aspect of traditional Western Judeo-Christian culture, capitalism, government, and the traditional leadership cadre into Godless Leftism, Marxism, and a leftist leadership cadre–to stage a “Long March through the Institutions and Culture” has been wildly successful, with the results we see all around us.
The means of transmission of traditional culture –most effective among them religious and secular education, art and culture–have been almost totally taken over by the Left, and that line of transmission of our traditional values and culture has not only been broken, but it has been radically altered to deliver a new message.
The same process of “progress” that Thomas S. Kuhn wrote about in his “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” is also at work here i.e. those who recalcitrantly hold to the old ideas die out, and are replaced by young people who have newer and different ideas.
The entire traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist—people’s image of the world, how it works, and how we should behave in it, held in peoples minds and acted out–is dwindling away as older generations pass on.
Moreover, the events, movements, and conditions which together evolved to create that traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist–no matter how much we might mourn their passing and wish for their revitalization and return—very likely cannot be recreated.
Snow on Pine,
Unless the traditional “Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist” were/are true. Truth wins out, the gods of the copybook headings and all that.
Those who seek the truth and live by it are often in the minority (always in the minority?), but they likely always exist through human history. And they are often (always?) persecuted through human history.
Podesta who actually lobbied the dems on behalf of ukraine and sberbank yet he was never charged nor even arrested
Sberbank is perhap the second laundry after deutsch and hsbc
For example, what if China decides to import a lot of low-skilled labor from The Philippines or Indonesia? What if China successfully gets more natural resources from other countries through military or economic intervention?
Rufus T. Firefly:
Good on you for getting through a full hour of Zeihan! I’ll take a crack at answering your questions.
Unemployment among young Chinese is currently quite high — close to 20%.
Ensuring employment of Chinese citizens is a top priority for the Chinese Communist Party — that’s the agreement which keeps the people loyal. Bringing in foreigners and giving them jobs while their own youth languish seems unlikely.
Furthermore, my understanding is that East Asian countries have long unpleasant histories and don’t like each other much. Japan has been imploding demographically, but the Japanese will go down with the ship rather than encourage immigration.
As to China’s military — Zeihan says that as the Chinese economy slows, CCP is moving towards nationalism to motivate the people, e.g. bellicose displays aimed at Taiwan.
However, the Chinese navy is slow and has limited range — less than 1000 miles. It would be easy for India or Japan to send a force to the Indian Ocean and cut China’s access to oil from the Middle East, without which the Chinese economy withers in a matter of months.
China is a nuclear power, so things could get very dangerous indeed. Likewise Russia.
huxley,
Thanks for taking the time to reply. Those are valid refutations. It’s not that I expect China to import workers from abroad, it’s just an example of the many variables that become less and less predictable as you run the models forwards. Something will happen in the future, and Zeihan’s predictions are backed on by more data than most, but he comes across as very certain.
I find his certainty off-putting. Are there no black swans in Zeihan’s world?
My mother had several records with Richter. As I learned more about classical music, I discovered she picked good music and strong performers.
Richter has an impressive wiki entry. This bit jumped out:
_______________________________
In 1977, a recording of the First Movement from Bach’s Brandenburg Concerto No. 2 in F by the Munich Bach Orchestra under Richter was selected by NASA to be included on the Voyager Golden Record, a gold-plated copper record that was sent into space on the Voyager space craft.
Zeihan crunches the long-term trends, but he is at pains, almost gleeful actually, to point out that his forecasts assume nothing else goes wrong and that plenty else could go wrong.
@ Rufus Re: Zeihan
Dude is a salesman. He sells a feeling of security to Americans. He makes his money on books and speaking fees, the latter he tailors to his specific audience.
And when you’re selling the message ‘the world is changing in dangerous ways, but you’ll be fine’ you either sound certain (and specific details that most won’t recall later help with that) or you don’t make the sale.
Acknowledging that he’s probably playing it up some for the money/fame doesn’t mean he is (or isn’t) correct and/or honest in his assessments.
Boobah,
That’s a good way of defining why I found him off-putting. He does come across as a salesman. You give good reasons for why he affects that persona. Ken Gronbach, the other demographer I recently studied, has a similar personality, although Gronbach is less definitive in his prognostications.
Rufus T. Firefly–
I think that Gramsci’s Long March has been so successful because of a number of things.
First, the Long March’s slow and incremental nature.
Second, laziness and lack of vigilance on the part of those who should have been the defenders of our traditional culture and values.
Third, because those who should have been the first and most ardent defenders of traditional culture and values thought that the obvious superiority of that traditional culture and set of values was so self-evidently true, that it was virtually unassailable and, thus, did not need an ever vigilant, immediate, and ferocious defense.
Fourth, cowardice, and a fatal excess of being nice and polite i.e. why make a big stink–a scene–and generate “hard feelings” about this or that proposal or change that will obviously not go anywhere, will never be adopted, (and probably won’t really hurt anything if it is).
(This could have been thought about the first, small, supposedly “harmless” changes, many decades ago, but not the major changes that the success of those earlier, smaller, incremental changes—slowly shifting and eventually changing all aspects of our society and culture–has made it possible to try to implement and enforce in today’s world.
Think, for instance, of the idea that there are not just two sexes, something that no one in, say, the immediate post WWII era, the 1960s, or even the 2000s could have gotten accepted, but, it appears, enjoys growing acceptance by a lot of young people today.)
I find Peter Zeihan’s dismissal of China as a threat and certainty of America’s bright future… unpersuasive.
Snow on Pine,
“The entire traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist—people’s image of the world, how it works, and how we should behave in it, held in peoples minds and acted out–is dwindling away as older generations pass on.”
True and today’s younger generations shall discover that socialism inescapably evolves into tyranny. A fate which their parents bequeathed to them.
Miguel cervantes,
Not just amazon but every low to medium wage job and not just the West. Why not China too?
huxley,
“the Chinese navy is slow and has limited range — less than 1000 miles.”
“The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.”
Neither India nor Japan will send naval forces in reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And since it would risk nuclear war, it’s doubtful that the Biden Administration will either.
Zeihan is a smooth character with a wealth of information he taps seemingly without effort. It is how he pays the bills.
A habit I’ve acquired on the internet when I’m interested in someone or something is also to search “[someone/something] debunk”. There’s not much substantive there against Zeihan.
Zeihan’s critics tend to attack him personally — he’s a China hater or, somewhat hilariously, a Trump shill. (Zeihan really does not like Trump and the weakest part of his talks IMO are his occasional Trump attacks straight out of the fake news playbook. Sad.)
There was one China expert who went into blizzard of statistical minutiae which I couldn’t assess. The funniest rabbit hole I went down was a blog for orthodox Western Marxists tending Karl’s sacred flame. It’s been a while since I read that kind of thing!
Zeihan’s power IMO comes from his unusual angle, combining demographics and geography, then tracing their influence on civilization over the centuries. Dude knows a lot more about rivers, oceans, transportation and their importance than had ever occurred to me.
For instance, Russia doesn’t have many navigable rivers and those that it does have mostly don’t go through useful places or to useful places. Many terminate in the Arctic.
Meanwhile America has fantastic waterways. Score another for us. Zeihan is accused of being an American exceptionalist, but when he enumerates all our advantages, it’s clear he’s not flag-waving because he’s Amurcan.
This argument isn’t exactly news to any of us, but it is well laid-out. I particularly like the author’s quote from Mahler: “Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire.”
China’s Belt and Road Initiative does focus on making the resources of other countries accessible to Chinese industry — and it’s said, increasing their dependence on China.
The Gulf States have been importing labor from Indonesia, the Philippines, and the rest of Southeast Asia for some time. But now those countries’ economies are growing and modernizing, so workers may not want to go to abroad or have to go abroad. China will probably get some immigrants from there if they want them. Africa is another source of labor, but China may be more reticent about taking in African immigrants. China has already abandoned the one child policy, so they are probably already aware of potential labor problems in the future.
If Amazon et al. replace human workers with robots, who will buy the products being warehoused, packaged, and [not ordered so not] shipped?
And if Amazon is truly resisting unionization (in a barely legal way), are they perhaps protecting their employees from themselves?
Snow on Pine @ 3:33: your 3rd item seems to reflect, at least in part, the impact of scientific advances over the last 400 years on reducing the literal veracity of revelation. If our moral views are less viably assignable to divine sources, then they must come from genetic and cultural ones. If the foundation for revealed morality declines, an alternative needs to be found.
Larry Arnhart suggests a desire for transcendence is one of the 20 evolved human desires. I perceive [but can’t really prove] that this desire varies across a spectrum from high to lower across populations (as with many human desires and capabilities). Those people with higher desires for transcendence will struggle more to accommodate this impact of science from their rational side. But the 2000 year cultural impact of Judeo-Christian ideas about individuals, their rights, etc. [even if absent a divine legitimacy] have led to the high state of liberty and prosperity within our Westernized civilization. Appreciation of that version of culture, and its benefits, can be and needs to be further emphasized to push back against the Marxist institutional march.
That will probably be enough for me, as I seem to have a very modest desire for transcendence (beyond scientifically inspired awe), but perhaps that somewhat limited cultural version or vision will not be enough for many others, who will seek an alternative religion to replace the traditional one(s). We already know of 3 to 6 candidate ideologies waiting in the wings.
@ miguel > “Oersoective”
Okay, for a second there, I thought you were channeling Dork Brandon, but then I looked at my keyboard….;)
Just keep in mind the Establishment clause…
(i.e., Separation between Transcendence and State…)
– – – – – – – –
Speaking of transcendence, here’s one of the more bizarro (if extremely touching) articles one might ever find…complete with reference to the ’72 Munich Olympics…
(It’s literally “all over the place”…and then some….)
“This 98-year-old Holocaust survivor still swims competitively;
“This Holocaust survivor and Brazilian swimming champion is still competing at 98.”— https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/359474
R2L—It is ironic that while the advent and advance of science and its approach has seen the dwindling away of Religion, today’s cutting edge ideas in the field of Quantum Mechanics seem to be circling back toward the attitude, world view, and a lot of ideas that were part of those discarded Religious traditions.
“oreosecretive”
hiding the cookies
You can’t handle the truth.
or perspective? Get a grip?
John Podesta’s back in the White House
I’ll give Podesta a tincture of credit for wanting nothing to do with David Brock.
R2L….”If Amazon et al. replace human workers with robots, who will buy the products being warehoused, packaged, and [not ordered so not] shipped?”
Well, of course this critique could have been made (and often was made) against any labor-saving innovation in history. See my post series Attack of the Job-Killing Robots (3 parts) for some history of automation and automation fears:
Despite all the present concerns about AI/robot-caused unemployment, productivity is actually going *down* across the economy. And it is only increased productivity that allows broad-based improvements in the standard of living.
“…I particularly like the author’s quote from Mahler…”
Indeed…(but sorta sounds like Alma…).
No matter…
“…resisting unionization…are they perhaps protecting their employees from themselves?…”
Aha! Asking all the right questions….
Related:
“Pro-Union States Lose A Million Jobs To Right-To-Work States”— https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pro-union-states-lose-million-jobs-right-work-states
Key graf:
“…Currently, 28 states have RTW laws, and are reaping the benefits in terms of higher investment, employment, population growth, and state tax revenues….”
Hmmm. Might this be why “Biden” will have to do his very best to milk these states—even as he, no doubt, will demonize them—using “his” newly weaponized IRS??
File under: Fundamental transformation…of income (AKA “re-monetization”?)
Barry – I have been comforted for 70 years with the idea of the 1st Amendment protecting my freedom of conscience, as I tried to understand my reduced or non-religious orientation [perhaps an abnormality similar to being left handed, transgender, or homosexual?] compared to so many others. If intelligence and desire for transcendence both evolved in parallel, then each contributes to our perceptions of reality [which may or may not be actual reality – but we try our best – aided by Neo and her invigorating commenters herein. 🙂 ]
Snow on Pine: I, along with many others, await feedback and discussion/ hypotheses from the physicists and other experts based on new findings from the Webb telescope. That may or may not change the issue of a first cause, and what causes it, etc. It will probably not change the role of Judeo-Christian culture in advancing our ideas about natural laws and natural rights, constitutional government, etc.
David Foster: I agree automation should lead to improved productivity, followed by increased wealth creation, followed by new job opportunities. But it seems fewer and fewer of our fellow human citizens have the “whatever” to be or become candidates for these potential new, but more demanding opportunities. More training options, perhaps provided by the employers themselves, seems the most promising approach, but this idea may have limits, or at least some detractors fear it will not be a full up solution.
Turns out your 2016 commenter said it better than I did:
Anonymous November 14, 2016 at 9:54 am
“Even if we stipulate that these robots will create net jobs, there’s no guarantee that the new jobs will be accessible to anyone below certain thresholds of ability.”
I did a quick scan of your Parts II and III – may reread again later.
Or perhaps we need to redo our thinking on how to train people for working with more complex systems, building better learning “chunks” for less mentally skilled people, which are eventually assembled into an understanding adequate for the new jobs??
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John Podesta’s back in the White House, like in Obama and Clinton days. We had these permanent government, revolving door types in the old days, but people respected them at least a little (not that they always should have). The Wise Men. Today we still have them, but they’re all cheap hacks. Or were they always that and people just didn’t notice?
https://hotair.com/headlines/2022/09/06/stop-anathematizing-each-other-republicans-n494729
Does Dan McLaughlin ever make an utterance that is something other than irritating and vaguely repulsive?
huxley recommended a pundit, Peter Zeihan so I listened to a Modern Wisdom podcast* with him.
I want to start by emphasizing, despite anything negative I will write about Zeihan going forward, I think his work and approach are extremely important. The things he focuses on regarding nations; their natural resources, their ability to exploit those resources, their birth rates, their healthcare systems, their military strength… These are all extremely important in any discussion of what the future may bring. They should be foremost in most discussions about the current and future states of affairs. For example, almost no discussions of climate change include the natural fact that world populations seem likely to decrease, and perhaps soon.
Peter Zeihan seems very well read on the things he references. I won’t quibble with his data. My main disappointment when listening to this interview was the specificity and certainty with which he discussed future outcomes. He is not bullish on China’s prospects at all, for example. And he gives a lot of specific data for why he thinks China’s future is dismal. But there are so many variables involved. And, even if he’s correct about China’s lack of human and material capital in the ensuing decades; that very issue may cause China to do drastic things. Japan grew quite bellicose in the 20th century due to its lack of natural resources and that had major implications on much of the world. For example, what if China decides to import a lot of low-skilled labor from The Philippines or Indonesia? What if China successfully gets more natural resources from other countries through military or economic intervention?
In Zeihan’s defense, it was a one hour interview covering a wide range of topics. Maybe he has unstated reasons for being as sure as he is, but with the number of variables involved (including unpredictable events like earthquakes, drought and volcanic eruption) he seems more certain than is warranted.
I found what he said about France and Turkey particularly interesting. I hadn’t been thinking much about either country when thinking about the future and Zeihan gives some good reasons for being very bullish on France’s prospects and Turkey also has a lot of things going for it.
Another interesting thing Zeihan spoke about; the continuing ripple of the baby boom and lull we are likely to be subject to in America. During peak years of a booming generation’s consumption (ages 30 – 50, or so**) markets will be strong, the economy will be good. During lulls things will be slow. The Millennials are the kids of the Boomers and Millennials are having kids, buying homes, mini-vans, vacationing at Disney World, etc…
I definitely recommend listening to Zeihan, or someone like him, because the numbers really do matter. Xi can have all the growth plans he wants, but if there is no one to consume the development, it is likely to collapse in on itself.
*Here’s a video of the podcast I listened to, if you are interested:
https://youtu.be/wRT7P-VKM0k
**I may not have those time spans correct. I don’t recall the specifics from the podcast.
Pre-WWII Italian Communist Party member and Marxist theoretician Antonio Gramsci’s diabolical plan to use a patient, several generation’s long campaign of propaganda rather than force to displace and “fundamentally transform” ultimately every aspect of traditional Western Judeo-Christian culture, capitalism, government, and the traditional leadership cadre into Godless Leftism, Marxism, and a leftist leadership cadre–to stage a “Long March through the Institutions and Culture” has been wildly successful, with the results we see all around us.
The means of transmission of traditional culture –most effective among them religious and secular education, art and culture–have been almost totally taken over by the Left, and that line of transmission of our traditional values and culture has not only been broken, but it has been radically altered to deliver a new message.
The same process of “progress” that Thomas S. Kuhn wrote about in his “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” is also at work here i.e. those who recalcitrantly hold to the old ideas die out, and are replaced by young people who have newer and different ideas.
The entire traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist—people’s image of the world, how it works, and how we should behave in it, held in peoples minds and acted out–is dwindling away as older generations pass on.
Moreover, the events, movements, and conditions which together evolved to create that traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist–no matter how much we might mourn their passing and wish for their revitalization and return—very likely cannot be recreated.
Snow on Pine,
Unless the traditional “Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist” were/are true. Truth wins out, the gods of the copybook headings and all that.
Those who seek the truth and live by it are often in the minority (always in the minority?), but they likely always exist through human history. And they are often (always?) persecuted through human history.
Podesta who actually lobbied the dems on behalf of ukraine and sberbank yet he was never charged nor even arrested
Sberbank is perhap the second laundry after deutsch and hsbc
https://www.ien.com/automation/blog/22431861/amazons-robot-workforce-could-doom-the-american-worker
Oersoective
https://twitter.com/interestingpot/status/1567097292162744322?s=12
Newsom, Cuomo, Pritzker, Inslee, Biden, etc. would have done all of this if they could have got away with it.
This is why DeSantis and Florida is so important.
They must never be allowed to run from this.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/09/07/the-neverending-nightmare-of-zero-covid/
For example, what if China decides to import a lot of low-skilled labor from The Philippines or Indonesia? What if China successfully gets more natural resources from other countries through military or economic intervention?
Rufus T. Firefly:
Good on you for getting through a full hour of Zeihan! I’ll take a crack at answering your questions.
Unemployment among young Chinese is currently quite high — close to 20%.
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/07/18/china-has-an-unemployment-problem-why-nearly-20-percent-of-young-job-seekers-cant-land-a-job/
Ensuring employment of Chinese citizens is a top priority for the Chinese Communist Party — that’s the agreement which keeps the people loyal. Bringing in foreigners and giving them jobs while their own youth languish seems unlikely.
Furthermore, my understanding is that East Asian countries have long unpleasant histories and don’t like each other much. Japan has been imploding demographically, but the Japanese will go down with the ship rather than encourage immigration.
As to China’s military — Zeihan says that as the Chinese economy slows, CCP is moving towards nationalism to motivate the people, e.g. bellicose displays aimed at Taiwan.
However, the Chinese navy is slow and has limited range — less than 1000 miles. It would be easy for India or Japan to send a force to the Indian Ocean and cut China’s access to oil from the Middle East, without which the Chinese economy withers in a matter of months.
China is a nuclear power, so things could get very dangerous indeed. Likewise Russia.
huxley,
Thanks for taking the time to reply. Those are valid refutations. It’s not that I expect China to import workers from abroad, it’s just an example of the many variables that become less and less predictable as you run the models forwards. Something will happen in the future, and Zeihan’s predictions are backed on by more data than most, but he comes across as very certain.
I find his certainty off-putting. Are there no black swans in Zeihan’s world?
My mother had several records with Richter. As I learned more about classical music, I discovered she picked good music and strong performers.
Richter has an impressive wiki entry. This bit jumped out:
_______________________________
In 1977, a recording of the First Movement from Bach’s Brandenburg Concerto No. 2 in F by the Munich Bach Orchestra under Richter was selected by NASA to be included on the Voyager Golden Record, a gold-plated copper record that was sent into space on the Voyager space craft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Richter_(conductor)
Are there no black swans in Zeihan’s world?
Rufus T. Firefly:
Zeihan crunches the long-term trends, but he is at pains, almost gleeful actually, to point out that his forecasts assume nothing else goes wrong and that plenty else could go wrong.
@ Rufus Re: Zeihan
Dude is a salesman. He sells a feeling of security to Americans. He makes his money on books and speaking fees, the latter he tailors to his specific audience.
And when you’re selling the message ‘the world is changing in dangerous ways, but you’ll be fine’ you either sound certain (and specific details that most won’t recall later help with that) or you don’t make the sale.
Acknowledging that he’s probably playing it up some for the money/fame doesn’t mean he is (or isn’t) correct and/or honest in his assessments.
Boobah,
That’s a good way of defining why I found him off-putting. He does come across as a salesman. You give good reasons for why he affects that persona. Ken Gronbach, the other demographer I recently studied, has a similar personality, although Gronbach is less definitive in his prognostications.
Rufus T. Firefly–
I think that Gramsci’s Long March has been so successful because of a number of things.
First, the Long March’s slow and incremental nature.
Second, laziness and lack of vigilance on the part of those who should have been the defenders of our traditional culture and values.
Third, because those who should have been the first and most ardent defenders of traditional culture and values thought that the obvious superiority of that traditional culture and set of values was so self-evidently true, that it was virtually unassailable and, thus, did not need an ever vigilant, immediate, and ferocious defense.
Fourth, cowardice, and a fatal excess of being nice and polite i.e. why make a big stink–a scene–and generate “hard feelings” about this or that proposal or change that will obviously not go anywhere, will never be adopted, (and probably won’t really hurt anything if it is).
(This could have been thought about the first, small, supposedly “harmless” changes, many decades ago, but not the major changes that the success of those earlier, smaller, incremental changes—slowly shifting and eventually changing all aspects of our society and culture–has made it possible to try to implement and enforce in today’s world.
Think, for instance, of the idea that there are not just two sexes, something that no one in, say, the immediate post WWII era, the 1960s, or even the 2000s could have gotten accepted, but, it appears, enjoys growing acceptance by a lot of young people today.)
I find Peter Zeihan’s dismissal of China as a threat and certainty of America’s bright future… unpersuasive.
Snow on Pine,
“The entire traditional Weltanschauung and Zeitgeist—people’s image of the world, how it works, and how we should behave in it, held in peoples minds and acted out–is dwindling away as older generations pass on.”
True and today’s younger generations shall discover that socialism inescapably evolves into tyranny. A fate which their parents bequeathed to them.
Miguel cervantes,
Not just amazon but every low to medium wage job and not just the West. Why not China too?
huxley,
“the Chinese navy is slow and has limited range — less than 1000 miles.”
“The island of Taiwan, governed by the Republic of China (ROC), lies about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.”
Neither India nor Japan will send naval forces in reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And since it would risk nuclear war, it’s doubtful that the Biden Administration will either.
Zeihan is a smooth character with a wealth of information he taps seemingly without effort. It is how he pays the bills.
A habit I’ve acquired on the internet when I’m interested in someone or something is also to search “[someone/something] debunk”. There’s not much substantive there against Zeihan.
Zeihan’s critics tend to attack him personally — he’s a China hater or, somewhat hilariously, a Trump shill. (Zeihan really does not like Trump and the weakest part of his talks IMO are his occasional Trump attacks straight out of the fake news playbook. Sad.)
There was one China expert who went into blizzard of statistical minutiae which I couldn’t assess. The funniest rabbit hole I went down was a blog for orthodox Western Marxists tending Karl’s sacred flame. It’s been a while since I read that kind of thing!
Zeihan’s power IMO comes from his unusual angle, combining demographics and geography, then tracing their influence on civilization over the centuries. Dude knows a lot more about rivers, oceans, transportation and their importance than had ever occurred to me.
For instance, Russia doesn’t have many navigable rivers and those that it does have mostly don’t go through useful places or to useful places. Many terminate in the Arctic.
Meanwhile America has fantastic waterways. Score another for us. Zeihan is accused of being an American exceptionalist, but when he enumerates all our advantages, it’s clear he’s not flag-waving because he’s Amurcan.
This argument isn’t exactly news to any of us, but it is well laid-out. I particularly like the author’s quote from Mahler: “Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire.”
https://quillette.com/2022/09/07/the-infantilization-of-culture-and-history/
China’s Belt and Road Initiative does focus on making the resources of other countries accessible to Chinese industry — and it’s said, increasing their dependence on China.
The Gulf States have been importing labor from Indonesia, the Philippines, and the rest of Southeast Asia for some time. But now those countries’ economies are growing and modernizing, so workers may not want to go to abroad or have to go abroad. China will probably get some immigrants from there if they want them. Africa is another source of labor, but China may be more reticent about taking in African immigrants. China has already abandoned the one child policy, so they are probably already aware of potential labor problems in the future.
If Amazon et al. replace human workers with robots, who will buy the products being warehoused, packaged, and [not ordered so not] shipped?
And if Amazon is truly resisting unionization (in a barely legal way), are they perhaps protecting their employees from themselves?
Snow on Pine @ 3:33: your 3rd item seems to reflect, at least in part, the impact of scientific advances over the last 400 years on reducing the literal veracity of revelation. If our moral views are less viably assignable to divine sources, then they must come from genetic and cultural ones. If the foundation for revealed morality declines, an alternative needs to be found.
Larry Arnhart suggests a desire for transcendence is one of the 20 evolved human desires. I perceive [but can’t really prove] that this desire varies across a spectrum from high to lower across populations (as with many human desires and capabilities). Those people with higher desires for transcendence will struggle more to accommodate this impact of science from their rational side. But the 2000 year cultural impact of Judeo-Christian ideas about individuals, their rights, etc. [even if absent a divine legitimacy] have led to the high state of liberty and prosperity within our Westernized civilization. Appreciation of that version of culture, and its benefits, can be and needs to be further emphasized to push back against the Marxist institutional march.
That will probably be enough for me, as I seem to have a very modest desire for transcendence (beyond scientifically inspired awe), but perhaps that somewhat limited cultural version or vision will not be enough for many others, who will seek an alternative religion to replace the traditional one(s). We already know of 3 to 6 candidate ideologies waiting in the wings.
@ miguel > “Oersoective”
Okay, for a second there, I thought you were channeling Dork Brandon, but then I looked at my keyboard….;)
Just keep in mind the Establishment clause…
(i.e., Separation between Transcendence and State…)
– – – – – – – –
Speaking of transcendence, here’s one of the more bizarro (if extremely touching) articles one might ever find…complete with reference to the ’72 Munich Olympics…
(It’s literally “all over the place”…and then some….)
“This 98-year-old Holocaust survivor still swims competitively;
“This Holocaust survivor and Brazilian swimming champion is still competing at 98.”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/359474
R2L—It is ironic that while the advent and advance of science and its approach has seen the dwindling away of Religion, today’s cutting edge ideas in the field of Quantum Mechanics seem to be circling back toward the attitude, world view, and a lot of ideas that were part of those discarded Religious traditions.
“oreosecretive”
hiding the cookies
You can’t handle the truth.
or perspective? Get a grip?
John Podesta’s back in the White House
I’ll give Podesta a tincture of credit for wanting nothing to do with David Brock.
R2L….”If Amazon et al. replace human workers with robots, who will buy the products being warehoused, packaged, and [not ordered so not] shipped?”
Well, of course this critique could have been made (and often was made) against any labor-saving innovation in history. See my post series Attack of the Job-Killing Robots (3 parts) for some history of automation and automation fears:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/54252.html
Despite all the present concerns about AI/robot-caused unemployment, productivity is actually going *down* across the economy. And it is only increased productivity that allows broad-based improvements in the standard of living.
“…I particularly like the author’s quote from Mahler…”
Indeed…(but sorta sounds like Alma…).
No matter…
“…resisting unionization…are they perhaps protecting their employees from themselves?…”
Aha! Asking all the right questions….
Related:
“Pro-Union States Lose A Million Jobs To Right-To-Work States”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pro-union-states-lose-million-jobs-right-work-states
Key graf:
“…Currently, 28 states have RTW laws, and are reaping the benefits in terms of higher investment, employment, population growth, and state tax revenues….”
Hmmm. Might this be why “Biden” will have to do his very best to milk these states—even as he, no doubt, will demonize them—using “his” newly weaponized IRS??
File under: Fundamental transformation…of income (AKA “re-monetization”?)
Barry – I have been comforted for 70 years with the idea of the 1st Amendment protecting my freedom of conscience, as I tried to understand my reduced or non-religious orientation [perhaps an abnormality similar to being left handed, transgender, or homosexual?] compared to so many others. If intelligence and desire for transcendence both evolved in parallel, then each contributes to our perceptions of reality [which may or may not be actual reality – but we try our best – aided by Neo and her invigorating commenters herein. 🙂 ]
Snow on Pine: I, along with many others, await feedback and discussion/ hypotheses from the physicists and other experts based on new findings from the Webb telescope. That may or may not change the issue of a first cause, and what causes it, etc. It will probably not change the role of Judeo-Christian culture in advancing our ideas about natural laws and natural rights, constitutional government, etc.
David Foster: I agree automation should lead to improved productivity, followed by increased wealth creation, followed by new job opportunities. But it seems fewer and fewer of our fellow human citizens have the “whatever” to be or become candidates for these potential new, but more demanding opportunities. More training options, perhaps provided by the employers themselves, seems the most promising approach, but this idea may have limits, or at least some detractors fear it will not be a full up solution.
Turns out your 2016 commenter said it better than I did:
Anonymous November 14, 2016 at 9:54 am
“Even if we stipulate that these robots will create net jobs, there’s no guarantee that the new jobs will be accessible to anyone below certain thresholds of ability.”
I did a quick scan of your Parts II and III – may reread again later.
Or perhaps we need to redo our thinking on how to train people for working with more complex systems, building better learning “chunks” for less mentally skilled people, which are eventually assembled into an understanding adequate for the new jobs??