Remember Ukraine?
I’ve avoided making predictions about the endgame of the war in Ukraine, but here’s an article that discusses the possibilities:
At the time of this writing, it is not yet clear what the outcome will be. His first strategy having failed, he is experimenting with escalation of force, using more artillery and larger numbers of troops, but still not going for the full-scale destruction of urban areas with carpet bombing such as that used in Grozny and more recently in Aleppo during his Syrian intervention. Casualties would be much higher if that were the case. It is also the case that the “Finnish model” that ultimately emerged was only resorted to after an extended period of conventional warfare against Finnish forces, one that gradually pushed the Finnish back, but at a very high cost. The Finnish model was not a first choice for Stalin, but it was an acceptable one. If it was acceptable for Stalin, it is not unreasonable that it might be acceptable for his spiritual protégé, if it came to that.
The Chechen model basically writes off any expectation of willing cooperation from the conquered population, and relies on sheer terror to maintain control of the area. Putin is still acting in hopes that the bulk of the Ukrainian population can be convinced to at least accept the rule of a Moscow-appointed puppet regime, while gradually coming to accept that state of affairs as the new normal for Ukraine. After all, the Ukrainians had accepted Soviet rule with at least the same degree of compliance between 1920 and 1990, and the Belarusians accept essentially the same outcome for themselves today, so this hope does not seem entirely unreasonable to Putin. Let us call such an outcome the Belarusian model. However, it seems likely that outcomes will fall short of anything resembling a Belarusian outcome.
There’s much much more at the link. The author has no firm answer, either, but he’s pretty good at asking the right questions and analyzing the prospects.
As is usual in such essays, the author leaves out many salient points. For example, he writes that independent, sovereign Ukraine has been a magnet for Russians fleeing from Putin’s regime, while ignoring the massive exodus from Ukraine, long before the current hostilities, of Ukrainians who were weary of the corruption and the poverty in a land which should, if properly governed, be amongst the richest in Europe, not the human-trafficking and the money-laundering capital of Europe (according to a report in Axios, Ukraine led the list of countries implicated in the Pandora Papers). It is noteworthy that Jeffrey Sachs (who participated in the financial pillaging of Russia in the 1990s) has recently posted a piece entitled “Ukraine is the Latest Neocon Disaster”.
j e,
And which direction was the non Russian Ukrainian “ mass exodus…long before the current hostilities…” going?
A lot of Eastern Europeans went west looking for work the last few decades. Proof positive that non Neocons should support the rebuilding of the Russian Empire, aka, the Soviet Union. I say, kick Poland out of NATO and let the great Russian Empire have them too! ( sarcasm).
having read vasily grossman who wrote more about the steppes, (the proximate oblasts to ukraine, one knows it will be a long grind, the sober pessimism of colonel macgregor seems more in line, than sunny optimism, this is something I learned from our most recent contratemps in the mesopotamian front, when many people who should have known better, placed hope over experience,
the supply lines don’t seem to be very effective, from a recent politico link I included yesterday, from christopher m, now this is a faraway conflict but the way the regime is handling it, makes it a very pressing problem, for it affects our food chain, our fuel supply, our military stockpiles,
Removing large part of the populations from the areas under Russian control doesn’t speak to acquis by the Ukrainians.
Curious how those who have less than positive feelings about Ukraine typically excoriate Ukraine’s corruption while giving Russia a rhetorical pass on that score. Is that because Russia is no longer worthy of note for being a monumentally corrupt and inefficient authoritarian state? On the awfulness scale of nations, it seems to me that Ukraine is much less awful that Russia. I believe Ukraine will be partitioned, like Cyprus, and that eastern Ukraine — i.e. the soon-to-be Russian part — will become a typical Russian hellhole; while sovereign (western) Ukraine will struggle, slowly and with much difficulty, but steadily, upward toward the light, and that it will do so precisely because it won’t be part of Russia. Also, I don’t think the Ukrainian adventure will be Putin’s last attempt to redraw the map of Eastern Europe; but that his future efforts in this regard will be the proximate cause of another Russian collapse, another deeper descent by Russia into darkness.
Anyway. Forget about it Jake … it’s Eastern Europe.
Lets all get on board the promotion of the new Russian Empire! Look at Russia’s long and glorious history! Oh how benevolent Russian leaders have been throughout history! When people think of freedom and personal prosperity for the masses and good government they always think of Russia! Oh how great life was as a state slave, opps I meant, a serf under the Czars! Shining Pokemon Village on a hill! And we all know that Russia had to build walls to keep Millions of Bernie Sander type Americans from moving PERMANENTLY to Russia under the Communist! Ahem, Ahem! And look how great things the Russia inspired Castro brothers did for Cuba! They even stopped rust from eating up cars from the 1950s!
Sarcasm….
It seems likely at this point that Russia will absorb the eastern provinces it agitated to get over the past decade or so. My opinion is still that if Putin had moved only there, and not on Ukraine generally, he could have had these without a great deal of European outcry. Instead, he’s getting the same result at an enormous price in terms of materiel and people, and the provinces are being heavily damaged besides.
I have no illusions about these enterprises, and if you look at the chechen zachista pattern you wouldn’t either, if you note where the battlefield is heaviest in lychansk and sevierdonetsk, well it’s a sobering read, back to 1707,
from the other day
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1544031169196556290
What’s the point you’re trying to make, miguel — I mean, re that statement about Ukrainian casualties? Why are you posting it; to what purpose?
Miguel — a lot of info from both sides that should be taken with a grain of salt.
The tempo of Russian operations, over the entire front, since the start of the war seem to be consistently losing steam. I think we might be reaching a stalemate. I don’t think the Russians will try terror bombing or chemical attacks because the Ukranian forces are beginning to get western artillery that can reach into Russia. They’ve been constrained from doing that by the U.S. and NATO, but that would likely change if Russia overreached.
Too hard to say how a negotiated settlement could be worked out. Watch Khearson and the south this summer for a better feel.
The concern about Ukraine as an entity is one thing. The effect on the states next up–NATO or not–is another.
The cost to the Russians in material, the money to replace it, sanctions from the west, the oligarchs’ taking it in the shorts, and even industrial capacity to the extent that some of what they need is manufactured elsewhere….and the combined effect on the plan for the next move is a third issue.
Consider that it took time for the west to move various weapons into Ukraine. What happens if each bordering state has full warehouses before anything starts?
One of the things the Military Industrial Complex would love would be massive orders on a just-in-case and deterrence basis. They’d make their money and not be accused of starting a war. This presumes there is such an entity, of course, and if those who believe it get all upset, it might be pointed out that the MIC is PREVENTING a war.
Yeah, lots of folks suddenly figured out how to spell “corruption” in Ukrainisch. There are whole continents thus benighted and it took THIS to get anybody to notice it in one place. Except for Trump who was impeached for noticing.
Back on May 29th, Velina Tchakarova wrote a long series of tweets representing her analysis of the current situation in Ukraine. Thankfully, someone has compiled them into a single thread.
Here’s a link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530991795848593410.html
As with most things Ukrainian, I have to plead ignorance, but I wouldn’t recommend Tchakarova’s analysis if I didn’t find it convincing.
I’m not sure it’s a good idea to copy a plain-text version into a comment here. Its length probably presses up against the bounds of Neo’s indulgent policies for comments. If she chooses to delete it, then I can’t disagree.
Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1530991795848593410
May 29 [2022]
There won’t be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won’t stop the war. On the opposite.
If Russia achieves victory in the 2nd phase of the war & declares unilaterally ceasefire, which will be welcomed by France and Germany, this would mean not only defeat for Ukraine but freezing the conflict until Moscow replenish forces and strikes back in other parts of Ukraine.
In the meantime, Russia will play for time using pressure on Western decision makers because of skyrocketing energy and food prices amid the upcoming winter. Russia has linked critical commodities (energy, fertilizers, food) exports to the lifting of the Western sanctions.
For Ukraine, the choices remain between a war and complete subjugation in the long run. For Russia, however, the choices were between short war (it failed in the first phase of the war) and long war (the current scenario). While the West presents the choices between war & peace.
Moscow seeks to build and consolidate its “sphere of influence” based on a union between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, which would help it become a major player with significant power projection and new role in the European security architecture.
If President Vladimir Putin manages to subjugate Ukraine, this would fulfil Russia’s geopolitical ambitions to revive a post-imperial state as a great power with a significantly improved position in global politics.
Russia’s geostrategic approach pursues a vertical (north-south) extension of its geopolitical & geoeconomic interests, encompassing the Arctic Ocean & Barents Sea, spanning its “near abroad” in Eastern Europe & South Caucasus, & reaching into Eurasia, West Asia, & North Africa.
Russia is slowly but surely shifting its centre of gravity from an interdependence with Western Europe to Eurasia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan), & even the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, Moscow seeks to use the geopolitical window of opportunity amid growing bifurcation.
For this reason, Putin is eager to close the chapter on the “sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe by reshaping the European security architecture once and for all, to turn his attention to the above-mentioned geopolitical and geoeconomic areas in the long run.
Against this geopolitical background, Russia is striving to become an indispensable power, without which neither the US nor China will be able to win the systemic competition against each other in the long run. None of them wants to see Russia as a partner in the rival’s bloc.
Russia has seized the opportunity to successively build a new modus vivendi of systemic coordination with China in relevant key areas of shared geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, since 2014 under sustained US pressure and ongoing Western sanctions.
In fact, Russian President Putin would have not launched full-scale war against Ukraine if he had not relied on this strategic modus vivendi of systemic coordination with China established and deepened since 2014. This was largely overlooked as a factor in Europe. (#Dragonbear)
The Russian narrative on launching the war against Ukraine to prevent NATO expansion collapsed with the application by Sweden and Finland for membership. Ukraine was invaded by Russia not because it was unilaterally striving to join NATO but because it wasn’t NATO member.
Roosia is releying on massed artillery fires followed by infantry (w armor?) to make slow incremental advances in the Donbas. It seems that Ukraine is forced to trade real estate for time but has been having some success with precise counterbattery fires targeting ammunition depots in the last few days. Will it matter? Attritional war.
Podcast from last week (Military History Not Visualized) discussed Rossia having to rely on massed imprecise arty because that’s all they can do and consequently they are burning out their tubes. Who can hold out longer?
Also point was made that Roosia hasn’t planned for a long war and is reacting tactically, not planning. And not planning for a full mobilization. Half assed and half measures, but still fully brutal, the Roosian way.
Not feinting, just FUBAR IMO.
they fell for the magic beans of ‘hybrid warfare’ offered by gerasimov, he’s the velvet glove to putin’s iron glove, but it’s a tool not a swiss army knife, 13 generals including his nephew, who was a frunze graduate, has learned the hard way, no one in four hundred years had tried an assault on kiev, coming from the north, specially in the spring, there’s a reason for that, the terrain is not conducive, why he chose this time to invade is still a mystery, but sheer firepower in troops in firearms in aircraft has it’s own weight
If Vlad’s ammo dumps ithe Donbas continue blowing up that will be a big problem for Roosia. Precision has a quality that can’t be ignored; strikes into Roosia are not essential?
The reality, contrary to western media and government propaganda (but I repeat myself) is that the situation continues to deteriorate for Ukraine. It has lost a majority of its best troops. In the east, it has now lost the strategically key cities of Sievierodonetsk in the north and Lysychansk to the south.
Ukrainian troop morale is low. Supplies are inadequate and not reaching those most in need in a timely manner.
In the not too distant future, denial of the reality that Ukraine has lost will not be sustainable. Eastern Ukraine was both the industrial heartland and agricultural breadbasket of the Ukraine. Its loss will plummet Ukraine into impoverishment.
None of this was inevitable, had Ukraine’s leadership honored the 2014 Minsk agreement and declared its permanent neutrality, none of this would have happened.
Putin’s purported imperial ambitions are a lie. But admitting having been played the fool is among the most difficult of positions to face.
PS: if I prove to be wrong, I will happily admit it because given my assessment, being right about the real situation is worse than being wrong. Better to face a power mad dictator than an ideological “Liberal World Order” Elite intent upon leading us off the 1984 cliff.
Of course, the worse case scenario is that its both.
My personal prediction is that some time in August the Germans are going to very quietly do a ‘Munich’ on Ukraine and ‘persuade’ Ukraine to pursue peace on Russia’s terms. That will be Putin’s price to keep Germans from freezing in the dark this winter. Because without Russian fossil fuels, Germans will freeze in the dark this winter. To punctuate his point, I suspect an LNG tanker bound to Poland from the US will go ‘BOOM!’ in the Baltic at about the same point in time. Accidents happen.
well the major lng plant in louisiana, just happened to go offline, just a few weeks ago
https://twitter.com/GlynisPayne17/status/1544272468940136448? how does one say keystone cops in dutch,
And the reality of Geoffrey serving as Vlad’s spokesman continues. 13 minutes at a time.
One could tell all the stories of Roosian morale and competency.
It can take a lot to break the will of an invaded country, not as much an invading army. Time will tell Geoffrey. Time will tell.
WEF and Davos? 🙂
John Fisher:
Does Vlad want to flip that switch? Game on?
Threats to nuke western Europe weren’t sufficient? Accidents could happen in Kalininigrad?
Two of our most important allies in the Second World War were also two of the most corrupt nations in modern history, maybe in all history, namely: the Soviet Union and the Republic of China (Guomintang). We couldn’t have won the war in Europe as soon as we did without the former; we couldn’t have won the war in Asia/Pacific when we did without the latter. Re China: it tied down over two million Japanese troops who required vast quantities of materiel to sustain them. Imagine if all those men and that materiel had gone to the Pacific Theater, to be used against us. Re the Soviet Union: well, what more can be said in that regard? No Red Army, no victory in May 1945, or for a long time after that. We would have won eventually: the nukes were originally developed for use against Germany, and they would certainly have been used. But still.
So. Allying ourselves with Ukraine would not be the first time in war that we have supported a corrupt state. And Ukrainian corruption doesn’t hold a candle to that of the Soviet Union, Guomintang China, or, for that matter, Russia today.
om – That switch is a lot lower threshold than threatening nukes. Strategic blackmail and non deniable action have been Putin’s signature in Ukraine and elsewhere around the periphery of Russia up until the invasion of Ukraine this winter. As to an LNG tanker having an ‘accident’ that would fall in the non deniable action category. The Russians wouldn’t claim credit, they’d just smile.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/germany-fears-russian-gas-flows-could-be-about-to-stop-for-good.html reports on the latest move in the ‘game’.
i wonder if the likely coming winter in Germany will take some credibility from the Greens, as obvious as the Putin connection will be.
I have no doubt only that sooner or later the Ukrainians will expel Putin from their country by any means 🙂
When Putin falls and the current Russian system collapses, Ukraine will reclaim the territories it lost or will likely soon lose to Russia. Putin’s fall and the collapse of the current Russian system is quite likely, although who can say when this will it occur. But I believe it will occur, sooner or later.
John Fisher:
Accidents can happen both ways, if you think and dream of them, you aren’t the only one. How isolated does Vlad really want to be?
How many Russians want to live on potatoes, beets, and cabbage? Again.
And the fall of the current Roosian systrwill be mourned by Geoffrey. A great civilizattion destroyed bthe WEF/Davos. 🙂
Smartphone tiny screen commenting is a problem. Sorry indeed.
I am about as far away from being a fan of the credentialed elite as you can get but anytime Ukraine comes up here it is a good example why such a class is necessary. The commenters who combine zero understanding of the situation with an absolute devotion to talking points that make them feel good about themselves are a reminder that the foolishness that has needlessly gotten populations slaughtered throughout history is alive and well today.
I mean, go back and read om’s comments over time and tell me how much actual compassion and concern for Ukraine or Ukrainians you can find.
Mike
Bunge pops up with no content and the usual attitude.
Throughout history? LOL.
Dont be a Bunge.
Bunge:
Here you go, you might learn something, not likely, but possible:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u5k9cnWLNdE
Throughout history, don’t be a Bunge.
Although we’ve wasted time and money on this conflict, at least we can celebrate the limited number of American lives thrown away – those having been voluntarily given.
Hoping for a lesson learned, perhaps future wastefulness can be limited to merely saying mean things about Vlad or whomever. I’m sure he won’t mind.
None of this was inevitable, had Ukraine’s leadership honored the 2014 Minsk agreement and declared its permanent neutrality, none of this would have happened.
If you believe that, you will believe pretty much anything.
Ukraine either conceded de facto overlordship of Russia, Belarus style, or accepted war. It chose the second. It knew that, which is why they were much better prepared than people thought they would be.
Putin was not interested in honouring Minsk, because for him treaties are merely pieces of paper to be ignored when the time is right. Georgia learned that.
I’m not sure where you get your information that the Ukraine has lost all its best troops. They might have, but you and I are not privvy to that information. So we pretty much know you are guessing. (hoping?)
Who invaded whom? An essential basic fact, how inconvenient. Words didn’t roll across the border, what a dumb ….
Did anyone bother to read the bio of the author? Neo could do better, and unbiased, analysis than this writer.
Joseph T:
You should lay out his hidden biases, a businessman involved in aerospace, deeply troubling? Wheels within wheels (or a Russian nested doll?)
After all Ukraine is an existential threat to Vlad’s precious bodily fluids?
“Putin’s purported imperial ambitions are a lie.”
So now you’re calling Putin a liar? Putin himself has compared his conquest of the Ukraine to Peter the Great’s conquest of the Baltics in 1700. His stated objective — to eliminate Ukraine as a nation and a people — is genocide.
It strains credibility to think Putin could have been dissuaded of his genocidal war of conquest if only the Ukraine / NATO alliance had been nicer to him.
It seems to me that Velina Tchakarova’s fears in Cornflour’s post above — that Russia declares a unilateral ceasefire and Europe forces Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms — is the only plausible way for Russia to win this thing. If that doesn’t happen — if both Ukraine and the West hold firm, I don’t see how Russia wins.
In this second phase of the invasion, Russia is advancing, but at tremendous cost. They’ve likely lost 20,000 men KIA, 1,000 tanks, and 1,500 other armored vehicles, and they’ve expended about 65% of their cruise and short-range ballistic missile inventory. All that to conquer about 20% of Ukraine and advance westward at about a mile a day. There are a *whole lot* of miles between Luhansk and the Polish border, and Russia doesn’t have the men or materiel to continue at this pace.
Ukraine is being supplied by the whole Western world, a world that outnumbers Russia 7-1 in terms of population and 40-1 in terms of economy. The West is far more technologically advanced than Russia is and has far, far higher production capacity. In other words, the West can build Javelins a whole lot faster than Russia can build tanks.
In fact, if reports are true, Russia can’t build tanks at all right now. Western sanctions have cut Russia off from the advanced computer chips needed for the communications, navigation, and targeting gear in their tanks. Russia can replace lost equipment only by digging into mothballed Soviet-era stocks. Meanwhile America is increasing its Javelin production from 2,000 to 4,000 missiles per year.
Even if Russia somehow manages to conquer the entire country, they don’t have the manpower to hold it. Ukraine has 4 million men of military age, and Russia would likely face an insurgency that would put the Iraqi insurgency of 2006 to shame.
And as I’ve said before, if Russia *doesn’t* conquer the whole country, whatever bit is left will become a de facto member of NATO. No, it won’t have Article V rights, but it will be armed with advanced NATO weaponry. Within five years Russia would be looking across whatever cease-fire line they imposed at a Ukraine armed with M-1 tanks, Apache helicopters, and F-16 Fighting Falcons, all protected by Patriot and Iron Dome missile defense systems. And then the Ukraine might decide to take their country back.
As long as Ukraine and the West hold firm, things look bleak for Russia long-term. Their only hope is to unilaterally declare a cease-fire and get France and Germany to force Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms. Even then, I don’t think Ukraine will do that.
I suppose Russia’s plan *might* work, but it just doesn’t seem likely.
Chester Draws,
“Ukraine either conceded de facto overlordship of Russia, Belarus style, or accepted war.”
Apparently you have yet to learn that, “It is better to keep one’s mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”
Ukraine was “much better prepared than
peoplethe uninformed… thought they would be.”Ukraine was “much better prepared” due to the weapons supplied by the US and the training by the US that had been being conducted for years. Joint exercises with NATO were held with Ukraine in 2021.
The following list of NATO exercises sheds light on why Russia has concerns with the West’s military intentions.
Skip down to after the breakup in 1989 of the Soviet Union to find a list of hundreds-thousands of ‘exercises’.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_exercises
Putin attacked Georgia in response to the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit announcement that Georgia would be admitted to NATO. Russia had since the breakup of the Soviet Union declared that NATO upon its border was unacceptable.
When NATO incorporated the Baltic States, Russia was still too weak to effectively resist.
I’m basing the assertion that Ukraine has lost a majority of its best troops on several sources, if you search you can find confirmation on the net. Recently, Zalensky has begun to admit to the loses. That alone demonstrates how bad it is because Zalensky’s admission has to hurt Ukrainian troop morale.
When Russia invaded, Ukraine already had many of its regular troops staging close to the Donbas preparing to crush resistance. Russia managed to cut off retreat and resupply and has crushed those troops.
Creating a shortfall in trained troops. Untrained recruits are now doing the bulk of the dying. They are the prototypical cannon fodder. It’s criminal to send brave untrained men to their deaths while making no overtures for negotiations and it’s the US that is blocking the peace negotiations that both France and Germany have indictated that they wish to foster.
We are being lied to in every particular in this war.
Bunge:
How many deaths is Vlad responsible for, Ukrainian and Russian in his frisks and capers across his neighbor’s borders? Any tally of the Ukrainians killed by Vlad’s missile attacks, or of the unfortunate civilians who were de-Nazified?
Don’t be a Bunge.
Geoffrey has chosen to join in the spreading of falsity, dialed to 11.
“Putin’s purported imperial ambitions are a lie.”
“We knows” is terminal it seems.
Geoffrey, always ready to pass judgement, has now decided that he knows what constitutes criminality in war regarding the training of soldiers. Any sage wisdom about the training of Russian soldiers?
Do tell us, continue to enlighten and educate as only you can.
“…the situation continues to deteriorate for Ukraine. It has lost a majority of its best troops. …
Ukrainian troop morale is low. Supplies are inadequate and not reaching those most in need in a timely manner.
In the not too distant future, denial of the reality that Ukraine has lost will not be sustainable. Eastern Ukraine was both the industrial heartland and agricultural breadbasket of the Ukraine. Its loss will plummet Ukraine into impoverishment.”
If this is true then Russia should shortly be able to reabsorb Ukraine and it will cease to exist as an independent country.
in a land which should, if properly governed, be amongst the richest in Europe,
There is no indication that the Ukraine has human or physical capital which by that virtue alone would make it as affluent as Denmark.
Putin’s purported imperial ambitions are a lie.
They are not, of course. They are inconvenient to the thesis you’ve been pushing.
So whats this really about
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10983315/Oil-U-S-reserves-head-overseas-gasoline-prices-stay-high.html
Sure that happened
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10986959/Extraordinary-argument-Macron-Putin-four-days-war-revealed-Russias-fury.html
“Extraordinary argument…”
Hmm. I do like the part about “…breach of ‘diplomatic etiquette’…”—It certainly is one for the ages…
And so spake the King of Swamp Castle,
“This is supposed to be a happy occassion …..”
The Ukraine was a problem even for the Tsars, and the USSR was even worse, there was armed guerrilla resistance after WWII that lasted into the early 1950’s. One effect of the current invasion has been to unify the country. Whether that unity will last if The Ukraine succeeds in keeping at least part of its independence is another question, but at least the western half probably feels closer to Poland and Lithuania than Russia.
I am reminded of Alsace Lorraine, where Louis XIV moved in French settlers after the German population was decimated in the Thirty Years’ War. A similar thing happened in the Eastern Ukraine. Anyway, I don’t see things settling down anytime soon, but do expect Russia to succeed in the east due to sheer numbers. As a nine year veteran of the Luftwaffe once explained to me, “two pounds is heavier than one”.
Via Andrew Michta’s twitterfeed at https://tinyurl.com/2p86pyav, some sobering reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/a-modern-day-frederick-the-great-the-end-of-short-sharp-wars/
Final paragraph:
“The long-term demands of a protracted war with China or Russia will demand a modern-day American levée en masse with implications far beyond reinstituting conscription. As we are seeing again for the first time since World War II or Korea, the dogs of war have insatiable appetites for people, munitions, and materiel. We are also witnessing in real time the sacrifices this has demanded from Ukraine and Russia. The final question for us as a nation, as we ponder the realities of great power competition and conflict, is this: Are we up for the same?”
My answer? No, we’re not.
war on the rocks tends to be thoughts from those near or inside the ring, careerists(?) IMO. So grain of salt?
Good to hear from you Hubert!
The default position of the left and most democrats has been that Russia/USSR were good guys. The exception was when they were accused of helping Trump get elected.
Currently, they’re either villains or….just some characters whose characteristics it would be too embarrassing to notice.
So Hubert’s question might be answered in part, what on earth would require us to go to war with Russia. If they attack us, it’s likely our fault, anyway.
“…and most democrats…”
I think that contention would seriously have to be qualified, i.e., chronologically.
Surely you’re not referring to Democrats such as HST, JFK, LBJ, HHH, Scoop Jackson, AFL-CIO—even Jimmuh, even WJC, yea even Algore—and all, or most of, the those who voted for them…”in those days of yore”.
(Regarding the latter two, they may have been hopeful regarding an emerging post-Soviet “Russia”, even if Clinton’s Serbia adventure somewhat threw a wrench in that, but “good guys”?—that’s the more recent realm of “The Squad” and “The Bern”; yes, the Overton Window has shifted considerably, but that could be said to have “mostly” kicked in with the Obama/Clinton “Reset”(TM) years…not to mention that Russia was VILLIFIED by the oh-so-pragmatic(!) Left during the Russiagate hoax…)
And I am wondering what ever happened to the 50 billion we sent over there six weeks ago, the 50 billion dollars that Ron Paul felt should be accounted for but the democrats wanted gifted with no strings or accounting attached.
Om: I’ve been lurking. Haven’t felt much like commenting. I have no idea whether David Johnson is a typical Beltway careerist. He retired without making General, so if he was/is he can’t have been a very good one. Maybe it’s because he raises unwelcome points and asks awkward questions, as in the linked article. As with Zaphod (currently posting as “ThisIsNotNutella”–incorrigible, that guy–over at Gerard Van der Leun’s blog), the question isn’t whether we like what he has to say or how he says it. The question is, Is he wrong? And if he is, where is he wrong?
Richard: well, Russia could provoke a clash with or attack a NATO member (Estonia? Lithuania? Poland? all three?). That would present us with two crappy choices: join the fray under Article 5, or say Nah, we’re done, which would mean the end of NATO. I had hoped the Europeans (read: Germans and French) would step up, but that ain’t happening. “If they attack us, it’s likely our fault, anyway.” I’m sure a lot of people feel like that, especially the people–young, fit, smart, traditionally-minded men–who would have to fight the war. That’s why I said we’re not up for it.
Barry: Scoop Jackson et al. = Cold War liberals. An extinct breed. My dad was one.
Hubert:
The wokesters in the defense community are more concerned with pronouns and social justice than their actual jobs IMO. I’ll read the WOTR article after work. Content in the past seemed think-tankish and inside baseball to a large extent. But I’m no of those worlds.
Regarding Zaphod, why bother if 90% is just chain pulling or F’en with people to get a reaction.
They found the USS Samuel B Roberts last month!
@Geoffrey Britain
Oh the incredible irony.
No, even “Western Media and Government Propaganda” are acknowledging that. It’d be hard not to given how the main axis of advance in the East has seen the Russians make gains at a slow but rather steady rate, complete with embarrassing equipment losses.
Which also isn’t that surprising since the Russians have front-loaded their military for heavy early strikes and while they miscarried much of their early strikes (think the Kyiv offensive) they have shown themselves willing to learn and have worked out at least some of the worst flaws (such as pie in the sky intelligence that the Ukrainians would not resist) and have redirected troops to the East and South from the North.
Unfortunate, but also shouldn’t be exactly UNEXPECTED due to the nature of how invasions go.
Firstly: Dubious at best. It’s certainly lost a lot of them due to the distribution of how combat goes (with many of the better trained and equipped formations going first and getting chewed up), but we haven’t seen the kind of gigantic unit-destroying bloodbaths affect units like their Special Airborne Landing troops (who have been playing fire brigade for some time). We’re also going to see some Ukrainian militia or regular units get “hardened” from this process too.
Secondly: We can say similar about the Russian military; the nature of Russian military law as well as reports mean that they front-loaded the invasion with their best troops (such as the different flavors of Spetznaz) in addition to generally bringing their more competent troops (due to being either professional soldiers or semi-professional multi-year contract troops). While the actual Separatists have been weakened by both battlefield losses and the fact that the Russian regulars among their ranks tore off the old separatist badges they were wearing and “resumed” their places as RusFed Military.
Quite true, unfortunately. Though other major objectives such as Kharkhiv hold in spite of repeated attempts to besiege them and in general Russian advances have been underwhelming compared to just what about everybody expected this far.
Hard to say across the board; I doubt the troops on the borders of Luhansk are feeling particularly peppy and the sort of aura of victory after the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv has worn off, but the Ukrainians have been continually pressing attacks around Kherson and Kharkhiv without letting up, which is no small feat. Especially since this is probably by logic going to be the hardest part of the war for them.
This is true, but also a common issue the Russians and their allies are facing, with the Separatists in particular getting abused by being at the bottom of the barrel for it.
It’s very much a nasty struggle of endurance and exhaustion that will probably go on for months if not years to come (though in a defensive war that generally favors the defender, as we saw earlier).
Funny, because I heard similar around 2014-2015, when the initial Russian offensives met little or disorganized resistance, but before the Ukrainian counterattacks retook most of the Donbas and even the Russian victory at Debaltseve could not be capitalized on and more or less outlined the area of demarcation for the next half decade and change.
If there’s one thing that the Russian regime and those believing its reports too much have consistently underestimated, it’s the capacity and will of the Ukrainians to fight (with “acceptance of the invasion and annexation by the “Blues” in the East” being a close second).
Blatantly false, to the point where I don’t EVER want to hear you try to lecture about Ukraine’s geography or economy again, but failing that I will settle for not hearing you blab about Ukrainian geography or economics UNTIL AFTER you’ve done some basic research on the matter, such as understanding what side of the country Odessa is on.
(Yes, really. https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/03/26/remember-that-reset-with-russia/#comment-2615274 )
This is particularly stupid on multiple levels.
Firstly: It assumes that the Ukrainian Government sat on its hands in spite of being at war for eight years, and made no effort to mitigate the obvious threat of war or to transfer assets to less endangered areas of the country (which spoiler alert, it did).
Secondly; It gets the facts wrong to begin with. The “agricultural breadbasket” of Ukraine has always been on what used to be called “Right-Bank Ukraine” (which confusing enough at first is the Western Bank) around what’s now Khmelnitsky, Ternopil, and Vinnitsa, and down to the Sea; There IS a secondary breadbasket from Kharkhiv and Donetsk to the river that’s now brutally contested by both sides and has had vast parts of it occupied (though by no means all or most; not that it needs to be occupied in order to seriously screw with the farming as people recognize), but that was ultimately the Secondary Breadbasket.
For the extremely basic Cliff’s Notes Versions, compare the map here of more-or-less possessed territory (which is probably inaccurate and subject to change but gives you an idea of where the battle lines lie now)..
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4
…. with the maps here
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/up_cropprod.aspx
and here
http://www.agribenchmark.org/cash-crop/sector-country-farm-information/country-profiles/ukraine.html#:~:text=Arable%20Farming%20in%20Ukraine,the%20central%20and%20western%20regions.
Suffice it to say, people consistently underestimate Galicia and it is annoying.
Thirdly: The Donbas WAS an industrial center of Ukraine, but it was FAR from the only or even majority one, especially given population centers tended to be along the great river.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Regional-Economic-Development-of-Ukraine_fig3_277619593
Fourthly: This ignores what should be incredibly obvious and impossible to deny.
A: That the Donbas is a relatively recent addition to Ukraine, only being finalized as part of Ukraine in the early Soviet period (though ties went well before that) in 1918-the 1920s, which ignores the industrial development of the other Russian Governates in the region, to say nothing of the Habsburg regions that would ultimately be joined to it.
B: That the war in the Donbas starting in 2014 seriously, SERIOUSLY disrupted the industrial efforts and progress of the Donbas and led to as many assets and processes as possible being offloaded elsewhere (by both sides) with the “Separatists” leaning on Russia proper while the Ukrainian Loyalists shifted their industrial focuses back West, to the Right-Bank Heartland.
Which is one reason why the LAST set of grandiose “it will soon become undeniable that Ukraine has lost” claims from around the middle of the 2010s failed.
I wish I were surprised anymore, but I’m not quite this naive. Perhaps I’m naive enough to hope that Geoffrey will finally do some basic research on the lay of the land in Ukraine to learn basics like where Odessa is, where the Donbas is, and about Ukrainian agriculture and industrialization, but that is waning.
But in any case Geoffrey, accusations of “disinformation” have become weaponized in an Orwellian fashion, but you’re quite literally spamming disinformation when you blab about how the Donbas is the “agricultural breadbasket” and “industrial heartland” of Ukraine in the face of clear evidence (to say nothing of claiming Odessa is “Ukraine’s only port” or that Odessa is in the Donbas). Stop that. It’s annoying and does not benefit anybody except maybe those of us arguing you have screwed up.
I’m tired of hearing this hypocritical, morally and legally illiterate bull pucky.
At no point do you address Russia’s legal obligations to honor things like Budapest, Astana, or indeed Minsk. Which is kind of important when you realize that the single greatest contributor to the failure of both Minsk Accords *WAS THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT BREAKING THEM*, as was documented for years by the Ukrainian government and people like Bellingcat (who for all of their political misadventures have been quite solid on this).
Why would the Ukrainians or frankly anybody trust the Kremlin’s word on this after it had repeatedly gone back on said word before, with extremely devastating results?
This goes back to my point about your utterly one-sided and wrong-headed interpretation of things like Astana, where you waxed poetic about the threats NATO on Russia’s borders might pose but “conveniently” skated over the threat Russian military presence on said frontiers might pose to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of said nations. Diplomacy is ultimately a two-way street, and if Vladimir wants to drive an oil truck swerving across both lanes of a street, it might be wise to get out of the way.. but it’d also be wise to find a way to stop it.
In any case, the root of the Ukraine crisis lies in the Russian Government and how it has treated the nations on its borders in ways that would’ve made Standard Fruit aghast.
Come again? How? Are you saying his claims are a lie (as they are)? Or that claims that he has imperial ambitions are a lie, to which I say “What the Holy Hell do you think his rhetoric about a Russian World is?”
Which probably explains why you have refused to do so in spite of being played as a useful idiot by both Kremlin propagandist sources like “Colonel” MacGregor and people like myself dunking on you for your fallacies, including our host herself Neo.
Everybody’s wrong about something, but it is utter refusal to adjust or do basic research that helps.
Who the Hell are you trying to fool, Geoffrey Britain?
You’ve been proven wrong many, many times before by people like myself, including on VERY basic and non-controversial topics like “Which side of Ukraine is Odessa on?”
Have you admitted that?
Not that I have seen (and to be fair I might not have seen some).
Disagree. My mother the nurse pointed out the classic wisdom that proper treatment is reliant on proper diagnosis. It is better to be right about the real situation- bleak and nightmarish as it is- than to be wrong and sleepwalk into one’s own grave (as unfortunately so many people like the Bushes and Romney seem content to do, even as the crocodile they try to appease and co-opt gnaws on them).
Embrace the power of And, and realize that both sides of that equation have been cribbing notes from each other and using each other’s strategies.
There’s a reason I’ve consistently argued both in favor of Ukraine and its rights, and that they cannot and should not take priority over our efforts here. Especially with Jan 6th Political Prisoners still being held in captivity.
Honestly, the worst part is that Putin is not the only power-mad dictator (outside the West I add to comment), nor is he even the maddest (as Xi and the Iranian Mullahcracy seem intent on arguing).
That’s part of it, but the US was hardly the only nation giving Ukraine training and equipment (as Putin’s Kremlin will be the first to tell you as it seethes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSPhOWDkcPk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw
But a crucial part of it that you are “conveniently” overlooking is due to Ukraine itself. Namely, the one-two punch of Ukrainian forces no longer being caught flat footed and unresisting as they were many times in 2014 due to raw surprise when Russian forces or “Separatists” bounded on them, with the Ukrainian military fearful of “creating” an international incident.
That’s no longer the case here, and virtually no Ukrainian shouldering arms is confused about the state of combat here.
Another is the corresponding combat experience, which is probably more important in Ukraine’s case due to the much wider pool of manpower it can call upon in comparison to Russia and the much narrower military experiences it had (whereas Russia sent expeditionary forces throughout the world in past decades, Ukraine’s pre-2014 military experience was hugely limited to supporting roles in the Coalition missions in the Middle East). Now a lot of Ukrainian troops have gotten killed, crippled, or captured, not going to lie. But a larger portion of those were completely green or low-grade troops than in Russia’s case (especially if you are talking RusFed rather than Separatists), and some of those previously low-grade troops have gone through the fires and are now somewhat hardened.
The same is true for Russia and the Separatists of course, but as long as Russia continues treating this as a “Special Military Operation” it will not be able to call up most of its conscripts.
Yeah Yeah Yeah, Get a list of Zapad Exercises and then Get Back to Me.
Or simply shut up.
Suffice it to say, Russia is not the only side with the right to be fearful of another faction conducting military exercises.
And it’s frankly distasteful for you to pull this particular card when those of us who have a memory longer than a fruit fly’s might remember how this stage of the Ukrainian War began with the Russian Kremlin massing forces for invasion under the guise of “exercise.”
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2022/2/10/22927046/russia-military-exercises-ukraine-invasion
Name me a SINGLE time that NATO has used “exercises” as a cover to mass for attack, and then actually launched said attack. I dare you.
This also brings us to another disequilibrium between Western/NATO Military and Political Culture, and that of Moscow’s, going back to how the Soviet Kremlin was deathly afraid of Operation Able Archer in spite of it being just an exercise (albeit a formidable one) and thinking it might be a cover for war.
Probably because unlike NATO leadership then and now, they put A LOT more emphasis on planning to launch military operations under the guise of exercises than their opposite numbers. Another point we are just supposed to ignore in addition to the laundry list of crimes Putin has made.
Ok, got any proof for that?
I’ve already talked about how you’ve put far, far too much emphasis on 2008 Bucharest as an explanatory factor for the wars in Georgia and ESPECIALLY Ukraine, and I hold to that.
Though even if I conceded the point it does not change the fact that Putin had no right or justification to launch such invasions on the grounds of Bucharest, and admitted this (even if he and you may not recognize it) in agreements like Astana and the Russian Accession to the Helsinki Final Accord.
There’s something perverse about using the term “resist” when discussing a former occupying power being unable to maintain its occupation over the Baltic Republics (as it had for decades under the Soviet period and decades before over the region in Tsarist times) or to prevent them from joining NATO.
But at least as important is that not only was Russia too weak to prevent the Baltics from joining NATO, It had absolutely no legal grounds to as having registered its acceptance of the Helsinki Final Accord.
Which brings me back to my central point: that looking at this situation only from the vantage point of the windows in the Kremlin leads to a distorted picture in which Russia has no obligations- legal or even practical- to its would-be partners in its “near abroad” or ability to appeal to them.
Which leads to yet more caterwauling after these nations and electorates gravitate towards NATO membership and integration with the West while the Kremlin remains shocked, shocked that they would not prefer to cast their lot with it.
A: Several sources you are conveniently not mentioning or citing.
B: You can find confirmation that Adolf Hitler fled to the moon on the net. Much matters on the QUALITY of said confirmation. Forgive me if I must express doubt about the quality of your confirmation-checking when you couldn’t even find which side of the country Odessa was on.
This is true.
Kharkhiv begs to differ. Have you heard of it by chance? It’s kind of a famous city.
Moreover, Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have been taking losses- often heavy losses- but generally have not been overrun, with encirclements like what we saw at Mariupol rare.
And also why we see funny memes like the “decreasing Cauldron.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/uxoyrw/simplified_map_of_decreasing_russian_objectives/
(Yes, it’s Plebbit. Yes, it’s a meme. But a meme LOOSELY based on reality as Russia has tried to elicit a breakthrough on the wings, has generally failed, and has moved closer.)
A: The shortfall in trained troops isn’t due to some kind of near-mythical Russian breakthrough and wholesale annihilation of trained Ukrainian troops (that’s generally been elusive outside of the Azov Sea Front, where loyalist troop commitments were rare) but due to the twin horns of callup due to the widened scope of the war at the same time as you have increasingly bloody casualties among the fighters on both sides.
Both sides are currently trying to fill out their ranks with enough troops while trying to make sure they will stand up, and neither has quite figured it out yet.
Secondly: “Shortage of Trained Troops? Untrained recruits doing the bulk of the dying?” Why, it’s like almost every early-mid stage Near-Peer High Intensity Conflict in the history of Ever.
And again, the Russians are also suffering this due to the rather limited scopes of their call ups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs
So you’re probably going to see high intensity fighting going on for several more weeks and months as both sides pitch what they have on hand (a matchup that favors the Russians) into the cauldron where it’ll get burned up or tempered harder, until the reserves of trained manpower run even lower while stockpiles of more equipment arrive.
New to studying military history?
Apparently.
Which makes the largest criminal Vladimir Putin and his government. Since that is exactly what they have been doing, as well as having repeatedly refused many promising avenues for negotiations (such as Zelenskyy’s offer for a Donbas Plebiscite)
Not nearly as much as Vladimir Putin’s previous conduct has blocked any hope that such peace negotiations would actually bear fruit, given things like agreements at Odessa, Kharkhiv, Astana, and Minsk.
Says the person who loudly insists on things that are provably and non-controversially untrue, such as where Odessa is, and who reads like they’re reciting Sputnik verbatum.
I accused you of lying about the context of the Astana Accords when you torturously interpreted a single clause of that to ban NATO expansion while conveniently ignoring the other clauses underlining freedom to join any organization. You reacted quite hysterically and in an offended matter at that and loudly protested your honesty and how this was simply a difference of opinion, but the more I read of your writing the more I am inclined to stand by my original accusation.
Your conduct on this issue is certainly indicative of gross intellectual dishonesty in addition to staggering incompetence, and I am sure I am not alone when I say that my patience wears thin dealing with someone who cannot research very basic, elementary facts about the situation or even the country it takes place on but insists on writing as if they are authoritative.
Stop lying to yourself, or at least stop lying to us.
@Hubert
It’s that first sentence that really gets me, and why I want to defer involvement in a hot conflict as long as possible or at least until the Usurper’s Government is removed. Because nakedly the West is very obviously not ready for the realities of this kind of great power competition, and it would be an obvious opening for the powers that be under Biden and co to abuse.
As a student of history I can write a GREAT deal about the kinds of abuses that the government fostered during the four great wars of American History: the Revolution (people on the Right like painting the Founders as White Knights and they were relatively, but they tend to forget the nasty and often jarring abridgements of freedoms taken for granted that the Continental Congress did), the American Civil War (though I do think people give Lincoln a worse rap than he deserves), WWI (aka: “Woody Wilson tries to prove he can build a Prussian Total War State better than his Prussian Idols-turned-enemies, and only barely gets restrained”), and WWII.
Under current circumstances? It’d be a nightmare.
Barry. Most Scoop Jackson dems are dead. WJC’s position seems to have been amorphous.
But I’m referring to those I know/knew, and various readings here and there.
Back in the day, I asked several institutions, including the PCUSA, if there were any American initiatives in foreign theaters where they and the Kremlin had differing opinions. Got some snark but not any actual facts.
Yeah. Send a group to the USSR, meet, laugh, cry, pray with the designated huggy-bears and come home to tell us that all we have to fear is Ronald Reagan.
In 87, I did a tour of Central America with the Center for Global Education, at that time out of Augsburg College. Don’t know if they’re still around. Made all the exhibits for the peace freak trade. “blatant” doesn’t have enough vowels to be pronounced as that op requiredl.
That’s changed with the end of the Soviets. A founder of Greenpeace mused that, with the fall of the USSR, the leftists left the peace movement and went Green. Nothing like the obvious.
So while Russia may not automatically and reflexively be the good guy any longer, we are automatically and reflexively the bad guy. Which means, if Russia is involved…they’re the good guy. Have to be.
@Richard Aubrey
Pardon, but I’m not entirely sure. Is this supposedly the Greenpeace POV? Or the like?
As for the idea that we are automatically and reflexively the bad guy, I gesture to ISIS and Syria. I also point to Putin’s abetting a very nasty list of people ranging from Western Greens, to the CCP, to Islamist terrorists like his vassal in Chechnya, Kadyrov.
It’s generally a bad idea to reflexively or automatically deem any faction the “good guy” or “bad guy” (indeed, I’d argue we supported the bad guys to an unconsciable degree during the Indo-Pak War of 1971 and that the Soviets backed the better side). But I didn’t condemn Putin and co on the grounds for being automatically bad. I considered the Kremlin’s actions and justifications and then did so.
my memory is long enough to remember that biden kerry panetta boxer certainly were all on the soviet side, and they haven’t except the us as currently constituted is the main enemy, the institutions that held it together, not the regime minions, the regime is so firmly tied to china, that’s it’s nc 17 or worse, and this war is an excuse to further the objectives of the nullifi
cationists, (for lack of a better term)
khadyrov is no one i’d invite for dinner, but he has enabled putin to move his garrisons east to Syria, and west to Ukraine,
Wow, this must be the Lazarus thread…
Yes, absolutely amazing…but ouch, Turtler, that was brutal…
Richard, I would have to agree with you, of course—i.e., mostly—but I did mention “qualified…chronologically”…
Hubert, Scoop Jackson was indeed an extraordinary man in all respects. As it turns out, my father, too, was an avid supporter…but this would only have been natural for a straight-ticket Democrat voter…i.e., until 1972 when he couldn’t bring himself to vote for McGovern and did the…simply unthinkable…for which bit of integrity he paid a price, as his mother was beside herself, entirely uncomprehending, having worked herself up into rather dramatic renditions of “How could you have done such a thing” mode. I used to sit between them in the car….
Lazarus thread! What the hell, I’m in.
Om: USS Samuel B. Roberts–yeah, I saw that. Still waiting for the movie about Taffy 3. With today’s CGI, it would be a corker. And the box office for “Top Gun: Maverick” shows there’s an audience for it. Downside: it’ll probably be made by the Chinese.
Turtler: while tipping my hat to your fisking skills, I have to say that I understand and sympathize with Geoffrey’s disgust with our so-called leaders and the D.C. NatSec blob. It doesn’t make me support Russia (I’m pulling for Ukraine as a matter of principle, increasingly against the odds it appears) but it does make me hope that the war will also cause substantial, palpable, extremely painful, and lasting damage to our homegrown nomenklatura. Problem is, we’re in the line of fire too. Regarding your comment about national mobilization–“Under current circumstances? It’d be a nightmare”–I agree.
Speaking of which: here’s a link to Michael Anton’s 2021 review of a 2012 book that explains why young men probably won’t be rushing to the recruiting stations to fight Russia:
https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/fubar/
It’s about Afghanistan and the 9/11 wars, but still valid. Even more so after the Great Afghan Bug-Out of 2021. Biden, Austin, Milley, Gilday, the USMC officers who hung Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller out to dry–why would anybody volunteer to serve under these people?
Barry: both my parents were FDR democrats. Not surprising, given their heritage and where and when they grew up (in poor immigrant families in the Jewish ghetto in Boston in the 1920s-1940s). Both of them loved this country and despised leftists and communists. Like your father, my dad regarded McGovern as a useful idiot and voted for Nixon in 1972. Dad, a WWII vet, also supported the war in Vietnam. He used to get into arguments with the local academics at the main newsdealer in town while picking up the Sunday papers and a week’s supply of cheap cigars (Dutch Masters).
In a sign of the times, the newsdealer is closing this month after 108 years in business:
https://www.gazettenet.com/A-J-Hastings-a-downtown-Amherst-cornerstone-retailer-to-close-in-July-46954663
Mom’s favorite family-owned department store closed a couple of years ago, not long after she died:
https://www.masslive.com/news/2019/11/wilsons-department-store-in-greenfield-closing-after-137-years.html
Miss them both every day, but glad they’re not around to watch their world being dismantled.
Hubert:
One can hope that Vlad begins to feint away from the Donbass (sic) if his munitions and command centers continue to be targeted and degraded. Attritional war. Foggy.
Tucker dissects and demolishes the absurd notion that Putin has his sights set on world domination. There obviously is a world leader whose nation is aiming for that goal, but it’s not Putin’s Russia.