Misconceptions about Roe
I’ve long thought that if I were to poll my acquaintances, most of them except the lawyers among them (and maybe even some of the lawyers too) would say that repealing Roe would make abortion illegal. That answer is incorrect, of course; it would merely make it possible for a state to pass a law making it illegal in that particular state.
In reality, I doubt that all that many states would make it completely illegal, and they would almost certainly be very red states. The very blue states would probably make it completely legal on demand at any point in a pregnancy, and all the other states would limit it in some way.
Now I see that someone has actually done a poll on the question I’ve wondered about. In this article, Marc Thiesson references the study:
A 2019 study reported that 65.7 percent of Americans incorrectly believe that if Roe were overturned, abortion would be illegal everywhere in the United States.
The only surprise there for me is that the figure isn’t higher. Why do so many people misunderstand? I think the Democrats have made it their business for people to misunderstand, and a certain portion of the MSM has cooperated in that endeavor. But I also think that most people are bored by the finer points of legal argument and it’s easier to think in either/or terms.
It is possible that overturning Roe might lead to a correction of these misperceptions, something that frightens the left:
But a Fox News poll released this week finds most Americans agree with the Mississippi abortion law at the heart of the Supreme Court case. The survey found that 54 percent favor state laws banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, except in the case of a medical emergency — exactly what the Mississippi law does — while just 41 percent oppose such a law. This is consistent with the results of a 2018 Gallup poll that found most Americans want abortion restricted to the first trimester (the first 12 weeks of pregnancy), while only 28 percent support allowing abortions in the second trimester and just 13 percent in the third trimester.
So, if Roe is overturned, Americans will wake up the next morning and discover that the justices have not in fact banned abortion nationwide but have simply upheld the right of states to impose restrictions — including restrictions that most of them support. That is unlikely to spark the kind of popular outrage Democrats are hoping for.
That Mississippi law is the statute that SCOTUS is being asked to rule on, and it might end up being the conduit for the end of Roe as overarching US legal doctrine. It may even be that, as a result, the majority of Americans will come to a better understanding of the law of abortion. One can hope.
neo,
I agree with you that a surprising number of people seem to think overturning Roe makes “abortion illegal” in the U.S. But, a surprising number of people don’t know about the enumerated powers or the 10th amendment. (Hooray for the public education system!)
Being a practicing Catholic it seems we get above average doses of information regarding Roe, abortion laws prior to Roe and what overturning Roe means. So, I wonder if the reason for that 65.7% figure not being higher has to do with practicing Catholics having frequent exposure to the nature of the Roe decision and U.S. law regarding abortion?
I predict in the end the decision won’t totally overturn Roe. Roberts and Kavanaugh(probably) will side with the three leftists on the big picture and there will be some smaller decision which will pass 6-3 limiting something.
I don’t trust Roberts(obviously), Kavanaugh and Barrett to reliably vote on anything.
Hope I’m wrong but this entire thing seems far too good to be true.
Griffin,
I haven’t seen it mentioned here (might have missed it), but I read (indirectly from the WSJ) that Roberts had been arm twisting Kavanaugh and Barrett to refuse to vote for the Alito language.
Dana Perino once stated that in conversations with G.W. Bush he told her that he thought appointing Roberts as chief justice was one of his greatest accomplishments. Imagine that.
And of course the leaked Alito opinion will be issued as a dissenting opinion signed by Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch. Maybe an exact version of the leaked one to make a point.
What I learned over the weekend is the Mississippi abortion laws are more pro-choice than most of Europe. Not that we should base our laws on Europe, but it does show that the laws in Mississippi are hardly radically right wing.
The left should fear a reversal on the majority. It will signal very clearly that the court can be swayed by mobs and politics, and once that is the case, the gig is up.
Since we haven’t a clue what the intramural discussions between the justices are apart from this leak, seems pretty silly to be ‘predicting’ much of anything.
‘seems pretty silly to be ‘predicting’ much of anything’
There goes about 75% of the comments to any article on line.
There goes about 75% of the comments to any article on line.
And you care about them just why?
Where did I say I care about them?
My comment that you apparently cared about enough to comment on was just a thought on what I think may happen just like any comment about where things are going with Ukraine or inflation or COVID or whatever would be.
All of those things have countless variables that make it ‘silly’ to make predictions on them yet people do it all the time.
The misconceptions do go a bit both ways. My first job out of college was in a bank in Kentucky – a pretty conservative crowd. A political discussion was going on, and this one happened to be about the legality of abortion. Being young I hadn’t learned to read the audience and ignore people who don’t know what the hell they’re talking about, so I engaged. I mentioned a couple of times that the constitution was entirely silent on the issue. They somehow interpreted this as a pro-choice argument, and became angry. Eventually I realized that they believed the Supreme Court could, and should, make abortion illegal.
I hope that turning things back to the states (and local voices) can widen the thoughts about how to deal with problem pregnancies. Ultrasounds have made a difference, as have counseling centers where adoptions are discussed. What if groups started discussions with young girls about how to raise children and with boys about the responsibilities of fatherhood. Every community with have different takes on their own problems and how best to address them. A 50-year-old supreme court decision freezes the people into 2 ways of thinking. We can do better.
expat,
I absolutely agree. The U.S. has been obsessed with abortion as a legal issue; endless debates parsing words and clauses. It is not a legal, nor political issue. It is a minimum of two people; mother and child (and often a father, parents, friends…), under stress.
Were it just a matter of a misunderstanding, even in the face of the left’s propaganda, in time it would be correctable.
The amused reaction of the other panelists @ MSNBC to “MSNBC Guest Says She Wants to ‘Make Sweet Love’ With SCOTUS Leaker, and Then ‘Joyfully Abort’ Fetus” and the confidence at MSNBC that expressing a desire to “Joyfully” abort a fetus will not create outrage in its audience demonstrates just how many Americans have embraced evil.
https://amgreatness.com/2022/05/09/msnbc-guest-says-she-wants-to-make-sweet-love-with-scotus-leaker-and-then-joyfully-abort-fetus/
The Roe decision, treated almost as an amendment, was lousy law.
“repealing Roe would make abortion illegal.”
MISINFORMATION – the goal of too much gov’t schooling, more indoctrination than education.
I think the Democrats have made it their business for people to misunderstand, and a certain portion of the MSM has cooperated in that endeavor.
Tammy Bruce used to be the head of the Los Angeles branch of NOW before she got disgusted with left wing politics and became a changer. A few days ago, when discussing the leak of the Alito opinion she stated that when she was running a portion of NOW, the only issue that would bring in substantial donations was abortion rights.
It is not a legal, nor political issue.
Thanks for the ex cathedra. Always an education.
Art Deco,
You are welcome. Glad to be of service.
I returned from a trip today to read that the woman who will probably be my US Representative next year, a Democrat, intends to vote for the federal abortion law in Congress this week, the one which would strike down any state restrictions on abortion at any time of pregnancy everywhere. Apparently Democrats, whether radicals or “moderates,” haven’t ever looked at the polls which Neo cites, or any others which have consistently shown that large majorities of Americans oppose the elective procedure after the first three months or so.
I can see and live with some exceptions but when some demand abortion right up to birth and EVEN after birth … that is straight up MURDER!
Counseling centers are being firebombed Justices have had to go into hiding demonic creatures are skulking outside churches well possessed thats the point of all these lies and omissions
This result is part of the reason bill maher said we had to ‘save democracy’ lets stop pretending this isnt the intent
In my telling, it was once commonly understood that overturning Roe would result in a majority of states legalizing abortion to some degree. But that was 40 years ago, alas, years before the Crazy Era
@ Leland > “The left should fear a reversal on the majority. It will signal very clearly that the court can be swayed by mobs and politics, and once that is the case, the gig is up.”
The Word from the Idiom Monitor is that the traditional saying is, “The jig is up.”
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/the+jig+is+up
However, the use of “gig” has apparently become increasingly common, as that is a word heard more frequently now than “jig” (not the dance name, but a trick or deception).
OTOH, in this case, it may actually be more accurate, in the sense that “the job of the Supreme Court is over.”
“I think the Democrats have made it their business for people to misunderstand,”
That is a succinct and direct explanation of the current Democrat party.
That is their goal all the time about every issue.
The gigue is up! — (the music’s over)
The jig is a setup! — (query any machinist or cabinetmaker)
I sent out an email a few days ago in which I used Neo’s quotes of Ruth Bader Ginsberg on Roe. (attributed, of course)
I mentioned the irony that although so many pro-abortionists have elevated her to the SCOTUS icon for ‘reproductive rights’ (to echo the ridiculous term now in favor in left wing commercials that air on You Tube), she clearly thought that Roe was bad law; just as do the six Justices who are being vilified and threatened. Yes, she thought that abortion should be legalized through the legislative process, although I don’t know whether she ever commented on possible limits; such as on unrestricted, very late term abortion.
Not a peep in response. I don’t know if people have stopped reading my ‘educational’ emails, or whether ordinary people are trying to avoid this subject.. Most of the addressees were the choir that I routinely preach to–or provide with ammunition in the event they are drawn into arguments– but some, mostly younger family members, are people I want to influence with factual rejoinder to some of the propaganda they are exposed to.
On “reproductive rights”, my young wife was pregnant in 1995 when she was one of the delegates of Slovakia to the big UN Conference on Women in Beijing. Many of the Chinese women, living under a “one child policy” that included both forced abortions and occasional infanticide (in reality, tho “officially” neither), thought “reproductive rights” meant … the right to reproduce. To HAVE children, not to kill unwanted human fetuses.
In translations, the UN deliberately tries to obfuscate — and most of the real wording in resolutions is agreed to in committees after hours of discussion, looking for consensus.
I’m wondering when the LAW against intimidation of judges will start being enforced – not holding my breath.
I saw a new poll by the RNC reported by the site Big-League Politics, I think today.
It found that only 16% cared about the pending Dobbs decision for it to I fluence their vote. Mind you, this was people who were informed about the significance of it, I believe — so it filtered out the ignorant that Dems so desperately depend on.
But the thrust of the piece was that the Ds have chosen poorly to bank their future on vilifying Rs as extremists. Ergo, the GOP establishment era are not concerned.