Did Ukraine sink the Moskva?
Stephen Green reports, you decide:
Regardless of whether the Moskva is at the bottom of the Black Sea or the burned husk of what was once the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, the question remains: Did Ukraine do that?
The Kremlin admits that an ammunition explosion caused an onboard fire that “severely damaged” the Moskva, leading to the order to abandon ship.
But there’s good reason to doubt that the fire was an accident.
I have no idea and no expertise in this area, but I find Green persuasive in his argument that Ukraine’s claim is quite credible.
In any case the Moskva is out of action, which leaves the rest of the Russian fleet vulnerable. It also would make other Russian vessels think twice about getting within range. As for whether she’s still afloat, those who know don’t say, and those who say don’t know.
I was surprised because the only Moskva warship I was previously aware was the helicopter carrier. That ship was decommissioned in 1996 and scrapped in 1997. This is a former Slave-class guided missile cruiser.
I can see the moral boost for Ukraine if they sunk the vessel, but otherwise, I think “who” is mostly irrelevant. That it could be sunk in the Black Sea by ammunition explosion or by shore-based anti-ship missiles suggests very poor training and capability for Russia either way. It’s a black eye for Russia regardless.
As for the potential prospect of the Neptune missile system and its potency. The Moskva is a vessel in the same class and generation as the US Virginia class CG vessels, which have long been retired (before 2000). The US operating comparative Mk41 Ticonderoga’s are a decade newer than the Slava’s and start decommissioning this year.
Looking at the Moskva it seems to me that the ship was not something you want close to shore; it had large cruise missile launch systems configured en-echelon on the port and starbord flanks above the waterline (10-12 per side?). IIRC those were standoff missile systems designed to attack our carrier battle groups. Probablly pretty dangerous to have any on board once someone is shooting at you.
The development of cruise missiles forever changed Naval warfare.
Recall that it was only one Exocet missile fired from an attack aircraft by the Argentines that destroyed the British warship, HMS Sheffield in 1982.
This one incident forced all naval fleets to reconsider how to build warships (aluminium vs steel superstructures) and how to develop defenses against not just one incoming missile, but defending against a simultaneous attack by multiple missiles.
Time will tell if naval forces have figured out how to defend against this sorts of missiles.
IMHO, I don’t think so. How on earth is a US carrier going to defend against 10 missiles approaching , all from different directions, all launched from land, sea and air, and aimed to hit their target at the same time? On top of this, toss in a few dozen drones with missiles.
I really don’t think that a carrier will have much luck surviving this sort of assault, despite the defenses of its Task Force.
The use of drones in Ukraine as well as the use of deadly anti-tank, shoulder mounted weapons will force as well a re-think of how to use, deploy and defend armoured units. One soldier with a shoulder mounted anti-tank gun can destroy a tank.
Imagine hundreds or thousands of individual soldiers using these weapons against tanks. Then toss in the drones.
Back in the 1930s Gen. Billy Mitchell showed how airplanes could destroy a giant battleship. He did not win any friends in the War Dept. but he demonstrated that the battleship was going to be obsolete (and, as was demonstrated much earlier, forts).
The Ukraine confict, like so many before, will force the armed forces to re-think how they must wage war.
It seems increasingly clear that if Ukraine had access to sufficient weaponry they could literally destroy the invading Russians.
Not to pick nits (too much anyway), but Billy Mitchell showed that a stationary battleship was vulnerable to “high altitude” level bombing. Experience in WWII showed repeatedly that high altitude level bombing against a mobile warship was completely ineffective. Dive bombers and torpedo bombers were an entirely different kettle of fish.
That is probablly why carriers don’t stay put. You have to know where they are to target them, easier with sattelite based radars and other surveillance assets etc?
Even in 1945 a Volkssturm teenager with a Panzerfaust could knock out a Red Army T-34 tank.
Russia now reporting the Moskva sank while being towed in heavy seas.
Kate:
It was another feint.
The Moskva is actually an unmanned submersible warship. 🙂
It’s unmanned, that’s for sure. I have seen reports that 50-some crew members were picked up by a Turkish ship. That leaves 450 or so of whose fate we are not informed.
It seems likely this was a Ukrainian strike. If so, this is a major thing. Russian ships have been hanging about fairly close to shore, in part to tie down Ukrainian forces against a possible amphibious assault. Those ships are now reported to be all farther out to sea, according to US reports.
Kate:
More(450) added to Vlad’s tally.
Yeah, it really matters to the Russians if Ukraine did this. If they did, they need to take countermeasures, the most obvious would be keeping their ships farther away. And in doing that their ships can provide less support for their ground forces.
Arguably Russia looks better if Ukraine did sink it. “No they didn’t, it caught fire while we were trying to sail it”? Yeah that’ll inspire fear in the Estonians.
Arguably Russia looks better if Ukraine did sink it.
Militarily, you are of course right.
But Vlad has entered a dangerous zone where he is afraid to admit that his forces are getting — at the least — beaten up, if not beaten. So he can’t admit the obvious.
The real problem, though I doubt he recognises it, is that his navy will now not trust a single word coming from their superiors. If they don’t know what honestly happened, why would they trust that they were properly protected the next time they sail close?
I actually think the Russian armed forces are getting stupider as the war moves on.
The Tsarist regime cracked when its soldiers refused to fight, not when they were beaten.
I have been rereading a lot of Russian history lately. Right now I am reading “Maritime Operations in the Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905 Volume 1”. Short story, the Russians blunder from disaster to catastrophe and back again. Led to the revolution of 1905 and famous mutiny of the battleship Potemkin (actually named Kniaz Potyomkin Tavricheskiy)
Actually the Roosians are helping the environment in the Black Sea by creating the artificial reef “Vlad Moskva” that will enhance marine habitat.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flag-ship-sinks-while-being-towed-to-port-n550404
According to “streiff,” at RedState, this is the first loss of a Russian flagship since the Battle of Tsushima Strait, in 1905.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flag-ship-sinks-while-being-towed-to-port-n550404
“A Brief Victorious War”
About the Moskva; the ship, its history, and weapons systems:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmxJsRy4ty0
by a military analyst who specializes on submarines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWh6LRMvHgA
By an ex USN submarine sonar man, with some details about the Ukrainian Neptune missile.
Both were made before the Moskva assumed its final stable configuration. Still in the Fog of War phase.
Arguably Russia looks better if Ukraine did sink it. “No they didn’t, it caught fire while we were trying to sail it”? Yeah that’ll inspire fear in the Estonians.
Shit happens on ships. An accident is better for Russia than Ukrainian action.
Being bested by Ukraine is perhaps the last thing Vlad wants to admit.
One year back in the 70s as a junior high school student I had to attend summer school because I was busted for some dumb thing I was involved in.
During summer school they took us to visit a Navy ship, IIRC a cruiser, in San Diego. We were amused at the playboy centerfolds in some of the spaces on the ship. While standing on the deck I saw a burning boat, and notified several sailors standing nearby. One of them told me they were probably just burning trash. Later the crew realized it was actually a ship on fire and they took what seemed like a very long time to launch a boat to render aid.
Don:
I agree. They seem to be finding out that their systems don’t work.
31/5/1916 Jutland: “There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today” Admiral Beatty.
How would that translate into Russian?
Cdr Salamander has commented that “the sea is always trying to kill you.” And then in war there is the enemy as well,
Another very good analysis of the sinking of the Moskva and its implications for Vlad’s Navy and Black Sea Shipping
Russian Cruiser Moskva SUNK & Impact on Black Sea Shipping | What’s Going on With Shipping?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qLCeh-zjrI
The author is Sal Mercogliano whi is often a guest on the Cdr Salamander podcast when merchant shipping issues are discussed.
“What is Going on With Shipping? w/Sal Mercogliano” is his YouTube channel.
Again, a very good discussion.
Just a note of thanks to all the commenters who are providing us with additional resources.
I’m getting more news and broader perspectives here than anywhere else, because the commercial conservative “stations” pretty much “broadcast” the same stories, just with different rhetoric.