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This video was made in April of 2021 — 13 Comments

  1. He seems absolutely certain that the Russian military is simply too corrupt and incompetent to win.

    Perhaps but I wish he’d bothered to explain exactly how Russia defeating the Ukraine would actually be a defeat for Russia.

  2. I had to look up zinc coffins. Since zinc is cheap and plentiful in Russia they ship dead soldiers home in them. Reads about like body bags for us.

  3. Geoffry Britain

    I think he sees a victory by Russia as something that will bankrupt them and hurt their future. Also it will not gain them respect, it’s kind of like a big guy taking on a small one or a woman. If you win big deal plus you’re a bully. If you lose you are shown to be inept and not as tough as you look.

  4. Zeihan has dibs. He predicted wars in this time frame on Russia’s periphery … in 2014. I don’t buy all his predictions (he underrates cultural and other irrational factors), but this one rang true.

  5. I can certify that the wokeness that has infected the military is eating away at our effectiveness. I work closely with military members as a function of my job; the kids I see coming in are weak, distracted, and care more about their benefits than they do about any kind of abstraction like “defending America.” A lot of them are fat, too.

    We are NOT prepared for a real conflict. Not mentally, not physically, and not psychologically.

  6. Martin,

    Zinc coffins puzzled me as well, I thought it might be a cultural reference of some kind. But metal coffins are I imagine reusable. I wonder if our body bags are biodegradable, since I presume they are not reusable.

    I agree that a Russian victory will not gain them any respect. Im not sure that Putin or most Russians care much what the West thinks of them though.

    Given Russia’s resources, gold reserves and low debt, I doubt that its victory or defeat will bankrupt Russia.

  7. @ Martin > “it’s kind of like a big guy taking on a small one or a woman. If you win big deal plus you’re a bully. If you lose you are shown to be inept and not as tough as you look.”

    Wil’Lia’m Thomas comes to mind.

  8. On the Putin Doctrine post, this question occurred to me, so I did some research.
    *Anyone have links to any other prophetic exceptions, other than the video Neo posted today of Alexander Nevzorov?

    My results are posted in a long (heh) comment here, so I’ll just pull the highlights.
    https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/03/24/the-putin-doctrine/#comment-2614941
    The commenters on that [i.e., this] video mentioned a Ukrainian, Oleksiy Arestovych, and Wikipedia had this to say (more details at my other comment):
    “Since February 24, 2022, Arestovych has been holding daily briefings on the current situation regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as an Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.[4][5]

    In 2022, after Russia invasion on Ukraine, Oleksiy became known with his 2019 prediction on the inevitable war with Russia.[6]”

    [6] is this footnote and I have looked at it the linked video.

    “Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019) – EN subtitles”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xNHmHpERH8

    I didn’t know if it was a general “Putin might invade, probably will sometime” or a “he is gonna do it as soon as he sees an opening.”

    It was the latter, and very specific, and very direct about WHY Ukraine made overtures to NATO under Zelenskyy.

    There are English subtitles (as on the Nevzorov video), so set the speed to double-time and read along. Most important part starts about 7:30.

  9. @ Michael Towns > “We are NOT prepared for a real conflict. Not mentally, not physically, and not psychologically.”

    Here another part of Arestovych’s bio that resonates, and may partially explain how the Ukraine armed forces (and civilian veterans?) are holding up so well against Russia’s bombing of civilians.

    “Arestovych is an organizer of psychological seminars and trainings and a charity fund for psychological support to the military.”

  10. After I read “Mig Pilot: The Final Escape of Lieutenant Belenko,” I knew the Soviet military was as corrupt as any military can be. Since the end of the USSR and the transition of Russia to a corrupt autocracy, I doubt that much has changed. I’m sure they have some well-trained elite units, but any army that has to draft soldiers will have morale problems. Especially if it is as unfair and corrupt as MP Nevzorov implies.

    Soldiers and sailors will go through h**l, if they are well trained, well led, and treated fairly. I get the picture that the Russian military are busy protecting their little fiefdoms and privileges – as they were back in the USSR days. In other words, you use your rank to get extra perks and privileges – no fair treatment of underlings. Then there’s the problem of vodka. It is regularly abused by Russian men and the military reflects the society. So, I’m not surprised at this man’s predictions.

    Indeed, what I saw of the poor maintenance of facilities in Russia when we visited in 2006, probably hasn’t changed all that much in 16 years because, while Russia has made some economic progress during that time, it has not had the amazing progress seen in China.

    Thus far, MP Nevzorov’s insight has been pretty spot on. They seem to be poorly lead, poorly trained, and not well motivated.

  11. Here is a post by streiff (“Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus”) that lends some credence to Nevzorov’s claims about the lousy condition of the Russian military (even though they don’t have CRT struggle sessions and transgender flag-waving parades).

    https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/03/24/a-60-dud-rate-for-precision-guided-munitions-explains-a-lot-of-russias-problems-in-ukraine-n540644

    Problems with fuzing are not unknown. The most famous example of this is the Mark 6 exploder used in the Mark 14 and Mark 15 torpedoes of the US Navy until September 1943. The flaws of the exploder and the torpedo produced a dud rate of over 50% in the standard submarine torpedo. The problem was caused by the Navy weapons designers wanting to avoid the cost of a field trial. [AF: SMH]

    Precision-guided munitions are essential in modern warfare. However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.

    If this report is accurate, it speaks to massive manufacturing and possibly engineering design problems in the Russian arms industry.

  12. “The problem was caused by the Navy weapons designers wanting to avoid the cost of a field trial. ”

    From what I’ve read, this was as much Congress’s fault as the Navy’s. During the phase when testing should have been done, the military’s budget had been cut about as far as it could go. You can’t even use the excuse of “funds diverted to new battleships”, because the naval treaties of the era meant that no new warships were being built. Money was so tight that the Navy didn’t even have enough Mark 14 torpedoes for all of its submarines. Only the Gato-class subs got those. Older subs were forced to use older torpedoes… which ironically is probably why USS S-44 was able to successfully torpedo and sink the Japanese cruiser Kako. S-44 hadn’t been graced with the Mark 14s, but was instead “stuck” with the outdated Mark 10s.

    And once the war started and complaints started filtering in, good old pride took over and kept the Navy from admitting there might be a problem.

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