Very brief Tuesday Covid update. All the states I follow are now in the exponential tail of cases. Average is 4 +- 2% of peak with GA at 1% and Florida at 2%. CT deaths continue to confound now stuck at 50% of peak for over 27 days. CO deaths moving down after being stuck on peak for a long time. The announcements by Pfizer for a 4th booster is just absurd. As is the CDC extending the transportation masking until mid-April. Also is the health facilities masking. I’ve been establishing my health care network here as a new resident. It’s amusing to walk into a facility and see all the workers pull up their mask when a patient arrives.
No one expects A Spanish Inquisition!
I always remember the Ides of March, and it’s only bad if I forget to send my sister a birthday card. Even worse, her grandchild was born on Sept. 11.
I can’t be the only one of Neo’s readers old enough to remember Perry White, the editor of the Daily Planet newspaper in the old Superman comics– White’s best-known expletive was “Great Caesar’s ghost!” The phrase didn’t originate with the comics, however– apparently there was a general trend in the Victorian period to replace phrases that directly referenced God with softer versions, “Great Caesar’s ghost” being one of several. Illustrations at the link:
Jimmy Olson, cub reporter for the Daily Planet, would utter these words at least once every episode.
“And who, disguised as Clark Kent….”
His disguise were his eye glasses; and nobody at the Daily Planet; Jimmy Olson, Perry White, nor Lois Lane, could figure out that Clark Kent and Superman were the same person.
Not even Inspector Henderson, the investigating officer who would always show up after Superman had saved Jimmy and Lois – yet again – from some criminals.
Also, since Superman had X-Ray vision, he most likely did not need corrective lenses, and how nobody at the Daily Planet realized that Clark Kent’s eye glasses were not “corrective” is a mystery.
The only analogue to this I can think of is the NY Times apologizing / excusing / supporting anything and everything that Russia did from 1917 through 1991; just willful blindness.
Yes the extension of the mask wearing on planes is very frustrating. I am flying to France on 3/31 and would really like not to wear a mask.
I sent emails to my two Senators, both Dems, asking them to contact the WH on this. I expect the response to be crickets.
physicsguy,
I forgot where I read this (may have been here), but in the UK, in the month of February, influenza deaths were greater than COVID deaths. Shame for those who died of either, but a good sign regarding COVID’s mutation to something akin to the flu or cold that we will deal with going forward.
Kate,
I have a son born on September 11th.
I guess it’s better than February 29th.
SHIREHOME,
How’s this for COVID logic?
from the Washington Post
Irving, the Nets’ star guard who has been sitting out home games because he is unvaccinated, was in a courtside seat at Barclays Center to watch his team defeat the New York Knicks without his services. He was able to attend the game as a ticket-holding patron because the city recently lifted its coronavirus vaccine mandate for customers at indoor businesses such as restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and arenas.
So an athlete in excellent physical condition can’t be on a 420 square meter basketball court with 9 other players and 2 referees or he’ll die of COVID, but he can sit shoulder to shoulder in a stadium with tens of thousands of people and he’s safe?
Kate and Rufus,
Our house in CT had its foundation poured on 9/11. The hatchway was put in the wrong place and the main support beam was off by a foot. Those guys were definitely distracted for good reason. The builder was not at all happy to have to make the corrections.
Yeah I think we reached covid as just another virus condition about 2-3 weeks ago. The powers that be will not give up easily.
Another open-thread comment about something I read.
Last week, David Goldman (aka Spengler) published an article about Russia’s Ukrainian invasion and the possibility of nuclear war (https://tinyurl.com/2p9xrrcr).
I know almost nothing about nuclear weapons and missile defense systems, so I can’t evaluate that part of Goldman’s article. Unfortunately, with Biden as President, and with our military services focused on DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion), I see no prospect of correcting the problems identified by Goldman. If that’s the case, then the prospect of a nuclear exchange, with Russia or China, has truly increased. I have to admit I never thought I’d see that happening.
Here are the first two paragraphs of Goldman’s article:
“Few dispute that the Ukraine crisis brings with it the risk of nuclear escalation. The reverse also might be true: The Ukraine crisis may be the result of a shift in the world’s nuclear balance.
With an economy smaller than the state of Texas, Russia has built strategic weapons superior to many in the American arsenal. These include land as well as submarine-launched hypersonic weapons that can carry nuclear missiles past any American defense, as well as the world’s best air defense system, the S-500. The October 4, 2021, test of Russia’s submarine-launched “Zircon” hypersonic missile was the first-ever underwater firing of a low-altitude weapon that flies at nine times the speed of sound, according to Russian claims. A Russian sub lurking a hundred miles off the American coast could nuke Washington in a flat minute.”
Cultural economist Tyler Cowan recommends this book on Russian nationalism and Putin:
“ 1. Charles Clover, ‘Black Wind, White Snow: The Rise of Russia’s New Nationalism.’ An excellent look at all the icky ideas that have been circulating around Russia for the last few decades. This book also brings the relevant characters to life, for better or worse. Recommended.”
Immediately, the commenters discuss Dugan and Gumilov.
It’s mentioned that Putin said to Obama that he mst see him as a white man. Putin objected that he was not! Rather, he’s Eurasian.
Cornflour: Russia has a nuclear defense. The US has some systems, but noting deployed to defend civilians. But even US systems are geared to old ballistic and tacticalical weapons, not the emerging, new tech.
Surely this was the intent behind Putin sabotaging intermediate range nuke treaty talks that the Obama administration abandoned as unproductive.
Putin is now set up to call anything consciously defensive by her rival as… what else? Provocative escalation that threatens the Russian Empire.
I know almost nothing about nuclear weapons and missile defense systems, so I can’t evaluate that part of Goldman’s article.
Don’t worry, he doesn’t know anything about it either.
With an economy smaller than the state of Texas,
Russia’s GDP (ppp) is about 2.5x that of Texas.
Art Deco:
The World Bank claims that Russian GDP is 1,483,497.78 millions of US dollars. Their data is from 2020, which they claim is the latest available (https://tinyurl.com/5eywtzpx).
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank Economic Data) claims that, for 2020, Texas’s GDP is 1,775,587.8 millions of US dollars (https://tinyurl.com/3tsmwa5y).
Neither of these numbers has been adjusted for purchasing power.
I don’t believe that you think that these numbers undermine Goldman’s argument. I assume that he has some different data at hand, just as you do. This isn’t a critical issue.
On the other hand, Goldman has raised a critical issue about nuclear missiles and defense systems, and you’ve dismissed his argument in one sentence. If you can suggest a source that offers an explanation contradictory to Goldman’s, then I’d be very appreciative. As I said, I know almost nothing about this topic. That wasn’t false modesty.
“…thanks to the IRS, it’s the Ides of April that I worry about.”
Don’t worry too much about it, PA+Cat. You still have two more days after that because the ides of April are on the 13th. The ides are on the 13th on what the Romans called a “hollow” month, one with less than 31 days, and on the 15th in a “full” month with 31 days. Yeah, I know, I’m a geek.
I have had two major life-altering disasters in my life, the details of which I will not go into. Both of them occurred on the “Ides of March” nine years apart. So, “Beware the Ides of March” has some personal significance for me.
AD: “Russia’s GDP is about 2.5x that of Texas”
You sure it’s not 2.4? Or 2.6?
Regarding the Goldman article–
To Cornflour and others:
We covered some related issues in this post and the comments thread there.
Part of the problem with trying to assess Russia’s current nuclear capabilities is that regarding hypersonic nuclear delivery vehicles, we only have Russia’s claims without any outside objective corroboration. For example, Russia claims to have a hypersonic glide vehicle that can travel at mach 20 – 27 (mach 27 would be about 15,000mph!), and is supposedly capable of sharp high speed verticle and horizontal evasive maneuvers.
On the surface, these claims seem a bit far fetched to me. But I ain’t no expert.
Rufus T. Firefly, I have a daughter born 2/27, but it wasn’t a leap year, so my major worry was delivering before the beginning of the ACC basketball tournament, when her father would have been distracted. 🙂
Roy,
In Latin class we were taught …
March, July, October, May
Have Nones the 7th, Ides the 15th, day.
There was a second part … but … I forgot
Cheers!
In honor of my brother whose birthday is today, I will relate to you this true conversation. This occurred a few days after Christmas during the Croatian-Serbian war:
Phone rings very early in the morning
Me: Hello
Him: Hi, it’s your brother. Merry Christmas. I am with a Croatian antitank unit and they are using this apartment as a command post. The phone still worked so I thought I would give you a call.
Me: Who’s paying for this?
Him: No one.
Me: What did you do for Christmas?
Him: I spent it watching a replay of last years Superbowl and trying to explain American football to these guys. Also taking automatic weapons away from people who were too drunk to possess them.
Me: Ah, a traditional Christmas then.
Him: By the way, I sent you some pictures of these guys destroying a Serbian tank. Just a second [mumble, mumble, mumble].
Him: Well, I have to go. They need to use the phone to call headquarters so bye.
Me: Happy New Year, bye.
This comment is meant to offer clarification of my earlier one. Unfortunately, there’s also a bit of repetition. Sorry.
Goldman’s argument (https://tinyurl.com/2p9xrrcr) is that American nuclear weapons and defense systems are, in many ways, inferior to those of Russia’s, and that Putin sincerely believes this. Consequently, Putin views the emplacement of NATO missiles in eastern Europe as an offensive, not defensive strategy. The possibility that this strategy would be extended to Ukraine was intolerable to him, because it badly undermined Russian technological superiority. This was a significant factor in his decision to invade Ukraine, at this time.
Although Brian Kennedy’s article in “The Federalist,” (https://tinyurl.com/37hfpmv9) addresses the same topic, Goldman’s argument is different. It can be summarized by the first paragraph of his article:
“Few dispute that the Ukraine crisis brings with it the risk of nuclear escalation. The reverse also might be true: The Ukraine crisis may be the result of a shift in the world’s nuclear balance.” Goldman has proposed that the causal arrow might be flipped.
Unfortunately, his assertion that there’s been an important shift in the world’s nuclear balance rests on technical issues of nuclear weapons and missile defense systems. As I’ve said, I know almost nothing about this. As always, there’s also the problem of assessing the truth of Russian claims about their own weapons systems. If anybody can suggest a good source addressing the technical issues, or one that disagrees with Goldman’s argument, then I’d appreciate it.
Roy–
I’m a Latin geek too– yes, I know from three years of Latin that the Ides of April fall on the 13th. However, given the inefficiency of the USPS, it’s a good idea in my town at any rate to mail tax returns on the 13th.
Senate passes a bill to make Daylight time permanent. It has to go to the House and then to Biden.
She is a vocal ESG, anti-fossil fuel advocate who could have strong armed banks not to fund energy E&P if confirmed. The link mentions Joe Manchin as helping to stop her, but elsewhere I heard Pat Toomey walked out on a potential vote on her or relating to her.
Another useful Senate action! Or is it a useful lack of action?
TommyJay,
99 times out of 100 the most useful Senate action is a lack of action.
I can’t believe the day is almost over without my mentioning my High School’s most successful band, one hit wonders The Ides of March and their song, “Vehicle.”
@ Rufus > The Ides of March and their song, “Vehicle.”
Great Caesar’s Ghost!
I actually remember listening to that one back in the day!
The Wikipedia write-ups for the song and the band were kind of interesting.
AesopFan,
I just read their wikipedia write-up. It seems the story I heard from my Sophomore English teacher was accurate. She claimed the band got their name when one of the band members read, “Julius Caesar” in her class. Wikipedia states that’s how the band got their name. I was 10 or 15 years behind them, but that teacher was likely in her 40s or 50s when I had her and “Julius Caesar” was one of the plays we read in her class.
Another potential brush with the band; I was in a band that recorded in a sound studio in the area and I was told the owner of the studio was the keyboard player for the Ides of March and had used some of his money from “Vehicle” to buy the sound studio. I remember meeting the studio owner, but I don’t recall his name. Looked like the kind of guy that could have been in a rock band.
Very brief Tuesday Covid update. All the states I follow are now in the exponential tail of cases. Average is 4 +- 2% of peak with GA at 1% and Florida at 2%. CT deaths continue to confound now stuck at 50% of peak for over 27 days. CO deaths moving down after being stuck on peak for a long time. The announcements by Pfizer for a 4th booster is just absurd. As is the CDC extending the transportation masking until mid-April. Also is the health facilities masking. I’ve been establishing my health care network here as a new resident. It’s amusing to walk into a facility and see all the workers pull up their mask when a patient arrives.
No one expects A Spanish Inquisition!
I always remember the Ides of March, and it’s only bad if I forget to send my sister a birthday card. Even worse, her grandchild was born on Sept. 11.
I can’t be the only one of Neo’s readers old enough to remember Perry White, the editor of the Daily Planet newspaper in the old Superman comics– White’s best-known expletive was “Great Caesar’s ghost!” The phrase didn’t originate with the comics, however– apparently there was a general trend in the Victorian period to replace phrases that directly referenced God with softer versions, “Great Caesar’s ghost” being one of several. Illustrations at the link:
https://www.supermanhomepage.com/other/other.php?topic=greatcaesarsghost
As for me– thanks to the IRS, it’s the Ides of April that I worry about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHthqkXM37I
I doesn’t get any better than this.
PA+Cat;
“Golly gee, Superman !! ”
Jimmy Olson, cub reporter for the Daily Planet, would utter these words at least once every episode.
“And who, disguised as Clark Kent….”
His disguise were his eye glasses; and nobody at the Daily Planet; Jimmy Olson, Perry White, nor Lois Lane, could figure out that Clark Kent and Superman were the same person.
Not even Inspector Henderson, the investigating officer who would always show up after Superman had saved Jimmy and Lois – yet again – from some criminals.
Also, since Superman had X-Ray vision, he most likely did not need corrective lenses, and how nobody at the Daily Planet realized that Clark Kent’s eye glasses were not “corrective” is a mystery.
The only analogue to this I can think of is the NY Times apologizing / excusing / supporting anything and everything that Russia did from 1917 through 1991; just willful blindness.
Yes the extension of the mask wearing on planes is very frustrating. I am flying to France on 3/31 and would really like not to wear a mask.
I sent emails to my two Senators, both Dems, asking them to contact the WH on this. I expect the response to be crickets.
physicsguy,
I forgot where I read this (may have been here), but in the UK, in the month of February, influenza deaths were greater than COVID deaths. Shame for those who died of either, but a good sign regarding COVID’s mutation to something akin to the flu or cold that we will deal with going forward.
Kate,
I have a son born on September 11th.
I guess it’s better than February 29th.
SHIREHOME,
How’s this for COVID logic?
from the Washington Post
So an athlete in excellent physical condition can’t be on a 420 square meter basketball court with 9 other players and 2 referees or he’ll die of COVID, but he can sit shoulder to shoulder in a stadium with tens of thousands of people and he’s safe?
Kate and Rufus,
Our house in CT had its foundation poured on 9/11. The hatchway was put in the wrong place and the main support beam was off by a foot. Those guys were definitely distracted for good reason. The builder was not at all happy to have to make the corrections.
Yeah I think we reached covid as just another virus condition about 2-3 weeks ago. The powers that be will not give up easily.
Another open-thread comment about something I read.
Last week, David Goldman (aka Spengler) published an article about Russia’s Ukrainian invasion and the possibility of nuclear war (https://tinyurl.com/2p9xrrcr).
I know almost nothing about nuclear weapons and missile defense systems, so I can’t evaluate that part of Goldman’s article. Unfortunately, with Biden as President, and with our military services focused on DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion), I see no prospect of correcting the problems identified by Goldman. If that’s the case, then the prospect of a nuclear exchange, with Russia or China, has truly increased. I have to admit I never thought I’d see that happening.
Here are the first two paragraphs of Goldman’s article:
“Few dispute that the Ukraine crisis brings with it the risk of nuclear escalation. The reverse also might be true: The Ukraine crisis may be the result of a shift in the world’s nuclear balance.
With an economy smaller than the state of Texas, Russia has built strategic weapons superior to many in the American arsenal. These include land as well as submarine-launched hypersonic weapons that can carry nuclear missiles past any American defense, as well as the world’s best air defense system, the S-500. The October 4, 2021, test of Russia’s submarine-launched “Zircon” hypersonic missile was the first-ever underwater firing of a low-altitude weapon that flies at nine times the speed of sound, according to Russian claims. A Russian sub lurking a hundred miles off the American coast could nuke Washington in a flat minute.”
Cultural economist Tyler Cowan recommends this book on Russian nationalism and Putin:
“ 1. Charles Clover, ‘Black Wind, White Snow: The Rise of Russia’s New Nationalism.’ An excellent look at all the icky ideas that have been circulating around Russia for the last few decades. This book also brings the relevant characters to life, for better or worse. Recommended.”
Immediately, the commenters discuss Dugan and Gumilov.
It’s mentioned that Putin said to Obama that he mst see him as a white man. Putin objected that he was not! Rather, he’s Eurasian.
There is therefore more discussion of Eurasianists among commenters.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/what-ive-been-reading-215.html
Cornflour: Russia has a nuclear defense. The US has some systems, but noting deployed to defend civilians. But even US systems are geared to old ballistic and tacticalical weapons, not the emerging, new tech.
Surely this was the intent behind Putin sabotaging intermediate range nuke treaty talks that the Obama administration abandoned as unproductive.
Putin is now set up to call anything consciously defensive by her rival as… what else? Provocative escalation that threatens the Russian Empire.
I know almost nothing about nuclear weapons and missile defense systems, so I can’t evaluate that part of Goldman’s article.
Don’t worry, he doesn’t know anything about it either.
With an economy smaller than the state of Texas,
Russia’s GDP (ppp) is about 2.5x that of Texas.
Art Deco:
The World Bank claims that Russian GDP is 1,483,497.78 millions of US dollars. Their data is from 2020, which they claim is the latest available (https://tinyurl.com/5eywtzpx).
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank Economic Data) claims that, for 2020, Texas’s GDP is 1,775,587.8 millions of US dollars (https://tinyurl.com/3tsmwa5y).
Neither of these numbers has been adjusted for purchasing power.
I don’t believe that you think that these numbers undermine Goldman’s argument. I assume that he has some different data at hand, just as you do. This isn’t a critical issue.
On the other hand, Goldman has raised a critical issue about nuclear missiles and defense systems, and you’ve dismissed his argument in one sentence. If you can suggest a source that offers an explanation contradictory to Goldman’s, then I’d be very appreciative. As I said, I know almost nothing about this topic. That wasn’t false modesty.
“…thanks to the IRS, it’s the Ides of April that I worry about.”
Don’t worry too much about it, PA+Cat. You still have two more days after that because the ides of April are on the 13th. The ides are on the 13th on what the Romans called a “hollow” month, one with less than 31 days, and on the 15th in a “full” month with 31 days. Yeah, I know, I’m a geek.
I have had two major life-altering disasters in my life, the details of which I will not go into. Both of them occurred on the “Ides of March” nine years apart. So, “Beware the Ides of March” has some personal significance for me.
AD: “Russia’s GDP is about 2.5x that of Texas”
You sure it’s not 2.4? Or 2.6?
Regarding the Goldman article–
To Cornflour and others:
We covered some related issues in this post and the comments thread there.
Part of the problem with trying to assess Russia’s current nuclear capabilities is that regarding hypersonic nuclear delivery vehicles, we only have Russia’s claims without any outside objective corroboration. For example, Russia claims to have a hypersonic glide vehicle that can travel at mach 20 – 27 (mach 27 would be about 15,000mph!), and is supposedly capable of sharp high speed verticle and horizontal evasive maneuvers.
On the surface, these claims seem a bit far fetched to me. But I ain’t no expert.
Rufus T. Firefly, I have a daughter born 2/27, but it wasn’t a leap year, so my major worry was delivering before the beginning of the ACC basketball tournament, when her father would have been distracted. 🙂
Roy,
In Latin class we were taught …
March, July, October, May
Have Nones the 7th, Ides the 15th, day.
There was a second part … but … I forgot
Cheers!
In honor of my brother whose birthday is today, I will relate to you this true conversation. This occurred a few days after Christmas during the Croatian-Serbian war:
Phone rings very early in the morning
Me: Hello
Him: Hi, it’s your brother. Merry Christmas. I am with a Croatian antitank unit and they are using this apartment as a command post. The phone still worked so I thought I would give you a call.
Me: Who’s paying for this?
Him: No one.
Me: What did you do for Christmas?
Him: I spent it watching a replay of last years Superbowl and trying to explain American football to these guys. Also taking automatic weapons away from people who were too drunk to possess them.
Me: Ah, a traditional Christmas then.
Him: By the way, I sent you some pictures of these guys destroying a Serbian tank. Just a second [mumble, mumble, mumble].
Him: Well, I have to go. They need to use the phone to call headquarters so bye.
Me: Happy New Year, bye.
This comment is meant to offer clarification of my earlier one. Unfortunately, there’s also a bit of repetition. Sorry.
Goldman’s argument (https://tinyurl.com/2p9xrrcr) is that American nuclear weapons and defense systems are, in many ways, inferior to those of Russia’s, and that Putin sincerely believes this. Consequently, Putin views the emplacement of NATO missiles in eastern Europe as an offensive, not defensive strategy. The possibility that this strategy would be extended to Ukraine was intolerable to him, because it badly undermined Russian technological superiority. This was a significant factor in his decision to invade Ukraine, at this time.
Although Brian Kennedy’s article in “The Federalist,” (https://tinyurl.com/37hfpmv9) addresses the same topic, Goldman’s argument is different. It can be summarized by the first paragraph of his article:
“Few dispute that the Ukraine crisis brings with it the risk of nuclear escalation. The reverse also might be true: The Ukraine crisis may be the result of a shift in the world’s nuclear balance.” Goldman has proposed that the causal arrow might be flipped.
Unfortunately, his assertion that there’s been an important shift in the world’s nuclear balance rests on technical issues of nuclear weapons and missile defense systems. As I’ve said, I know almost nothing about this. As always, there’s also the problem of assessing the truth of Russian claims about their own weapons systems. If anybody can suggest a good source addressing the technical issues, or one that disagrees with Goldman’s argument, then I’d appreciate it.
Roy–
I’m a Latin geek too– yes, I know from three years of Latin that the Ides of April fall on the 13th. However, given the inefficiency of the USPS, it’s a good idea in my town at any rate to mail tax returns on the 13th.
Senate passes a bill to make Daylight time permanent. It has to go to the House and then to Biden.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10616433/Senate-PASSES-bill-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent.html
Kate,
That is wonderful news! I abhor changing the clocks twice a year. Finally, the U.S. Senate does something useful.
Federal Reserve nominee Sarah Bloom Raskin bites the dust.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/03/15/joe-biden-bails-on-sarah-bloom-raskin-nomination-to-federal-reserve/
She is a vocal ESG, anti-fossil fuel advocate who could have strong armed banks not to fund energy E&P if confirmed. The link mentions Joe Manchin as helping to stop her, but elsewhere I heard Pat Toomey walked out on a potential vote on her or relating to her.
Another useful Senate action! Or is it a useful lack of action?
TommyJay,
99 times out of 100 the most useful Senate action is a lack of action.
I can’t believe the day is almost over without my mentioning my High School’s most successful band, one hit wonders The Ides of March and their song, “Vehicle.”
https://youtu.be/fiLaNEFyCiM
@ Rufus > The Ides of March and their song, “Vehicle.”
Great Caesar’s Ghost!
I actually remember listening to that one back in the day!
The Wikipedia write-ups for the song and the band were kind of interesting.
AesopFan,
I just read their wikipedia write-up. It seems the story I heard from my Sophomore English teacher was accurate. She claimed the band got their name when one of the band members read, “Julius Caesar” in her class. Wikipedia states that’s how the band got their name. I was 10 or 15 years behind them, but that teacher was likely in her 40s or 50s when I had her and “Julius Caesar” was one of the plays we read in her class.
Another potential brush with the band; I was in a band that recorded in a sound studio in the area and I was told the owner of the studio was the keyboard player for the Ides of March and had used some of his money from “Vehicle” to buy the sound studio. I remember meeting the studio owner, but I don’t recall his name. Looked like the kind of guy that could have been in a rock band.
Wow, the internet is an amazing place! Here’s the studio (“now defunct”): https://www.discogs.com/label/272229-Tanglewood-Recording-Studios
https://www.rblandmark.com/2018/01/02/47th-street-building-a-former-hit-factory/
Nothing bad happened to me on this Ides, save the back pain.