Iran Deal 2.0 postponed
I wrote “postponed” because I believe that the Biden administration has not given up on this pernicious endeavor.
But here’s the news:
For the last several weeks, reports of a new JCPOA “nuclear” deal with Iran being imminent have surfaced. Even as Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States was said to be forging ahead, with an announcement to be made any day. That despite the fact that Russia itself was the chief mediator.
Russia was the chief mediator?
…[L]ast Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov unexpectedly demanded sweeping guarantees that Russian trade with Iran would not be affected by sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine – a demand Western powers say is unacceptable and Washington has insisted it will not agree to.
Unexpectedly?
Russia’s envoy to the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, dismissed suggestions that Moscow was the reason the talks had stalled, however.
“The conclusion of the deal does not depend on Russia only,” he told reporters after meeting EU coordinator Enrique Mora. “There are others actors who need additional time and who have additional concerns, and they are being discussed.”
He said he hoped the talks would conclude at the earliest time – but he could give no timeline for when they may resume.
Interesting.
European negotiators from France, Britain and Germany had already left a week ago as they believed they had gone as far as they could and it was now up to the United States and Iran to agree on the outstanding issues…
Four Western diplomats had said the talks were all but finalised until Russia made its demands.
So what’s going on? Do we have a temporary reprieve of sorts regarding the Biden administration’s intentions regarding Iran, due to Russian demands in light of its invasion of Ukraine? And if so, why, and is that the only reason?
My own theory – for what it’s worth – goes as follows: it’s partly that the Russians figured that while the US was making concession after concession after concession to Iran, they might as well get a concession that would be important to them. Why not, given how weak this administration is? So they may have miscalculated on that. But why would the US negotiators not just give in, in order to get their much-desired deal? I believe it may be because they thought better of signing a deal right now that most of America would hate if and when voters discovered what was in it.
And by “right now” I mean prior to the midterms, which are not all that far away. Most of this Iran deal isn’t a big story yet to anyone except political junkies. Perhaps it behooves the administration to keep it that way until after the November election, after which they may suddenly discover that they will have more flexibility. And then I predict that, even if the Democrats do poorly in the Congressional elections in November, the Biden administration can go full stem ahead with the deal as planned.
That’s my theory of the moment, anyway.
Two days ago I wrote a post in which I speculated on the administration’s motives in pursuing a deal so awful, and I added that I hoped that “there will be some sort of sticking point that will mean that no accord is reached.” That appears to be what has happened – for now. I have little doubt that the Biden administration has the same goals as before, though.
What are those goals? We already discussed some possibilities in that previous thread I just linked. But right now I’d like to add a suggestion to ponder, from this article by Caroline Glick:
The Biden administration justifies its pro-Iranian and anti-Israel/Sunni Arab policy by claiming it is a means to disengage the U.S. from the Middle East at a time that Washington is keen to concentrate its resources and attention on Asia and the rising threat of China. While on its face, this justification seems reasonable, it stands on a rotten foundation.
During his term in office, then president Donald Trump sought to minimize U.S. presence in the Middle East in order to focus U.S. efforts and resources in Asia to contend with the rising threat from China. To achieve this goal, Trump empowered America’s allies – Israel and the Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. He provided political, diplomatic, logistical and when necessary, military support to ensure the success of their efforts to combat Iranian aggression against them.
Trump’s concept, which was successfully diminishing both the level of violence in the region and the U.S.’s direct involvement in the Middle East, was that since America’s allies share the U.S.’s interests in the Middle East, the more able they are to defend their own interests, the less the U.S. will have to invest in protecting its interests in the region.
Trump created institutional frameworks for cooperation between U.S. allies both by forging the Abraham Accords which effectively ended the Arab conflict with Israel, and by integrating Israel into Central Command and so fostering operational military cooperation between Israel and the U.S.’s Arab allies under the aegis of the U.S. military.
Those were the days, my friend.
Then, the deliberate reversal:
Biden’s policies are the polar opposite of Trump’s policies both conceptually and substantively. Biden’s policies represent a reinstatement and escalation of Barack Obama’s policies for Iran and the wider Middle East. In contrast to Trump, Obama, Biden and their advisors believe that the U.S.’s Middle Eastern allies – Israel and the Sunni Arab Gulf states – maliciously worked for decades to entangle the United States in the wars of the Middle East. To disentangle America from the region and its pernicious “allies” the Obama-Biden doctrine posits the U.S. must realign itself away from its allies and weaken them, and towards Iran, which it must empower.
This brings us to Israel, and what its government must do in the face of the administration’s betrayal. Since supporting Iran and undermining Israel are the founding principles of Biden’s Middle East policies, they are not subject to change. Israel cannot influence them. It doesn’t matter how many times Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid gush about Israel’s “true friends,” Biden and Blinken. They have chosen a path that is impermeable to reason and argument.
It appears that Glick’s article was written prior to the current stalling of the Iran Deal talks. But I don’t think that the stoppage would affect her analysis of what’s behind the administration’s policy and whether it will ever change.
Glick adds:
In 2014-2015, in their efforts to sell their original cataclysmic nuclear deal with Iran, Obama and his advisors ran a campaign to demonize Israel and its supporters in Congress specifically and in U.S. public life more generally. Now that Biden has agreed to an even more dangerous nuclear deal, Israel can expect for the demonization campaign that awaits it to dwarf its predecessor.
I would add that, because an Iran Deal was a prioritized goal of Obama from the very outset of his presidency, the retreat from decades of consistent US policy towards Israel began much earlier than 2014-2015. It took the form of Obama rejecting Netanyahu, and was spun as being about Netanyahu and his administration. But although Obama detested Netanyahu, I don’t think it really was about that at all. It was part of Obama’s campaign to ingratiate the US with Iran, in the service of the great big deal.
The Biden administration and its negotiators are still fully onboard with that general policy. Glick may indeed be correct about the reasons behind it; her explanation is a better one that most I’ve seen so far. One flaw, though, is that I don’t think this administration has any interest in “concentrateing its resources and attention on Asia and the rising threat of China.” I think that’s some sort of excuse. Perhaps the more basic reason behind this is to diminish the influence of the US and Israel – as well as Western nations in general – on the world stage.
What is amazing to me is how for a supposedly intelligent person Obama is amazingly stupid about Iran.
We knew what the consequences of installing a regime that hates “Western” values would be. But once they got their hands on the till they paid off the vote stealers.
May God help the United States and it’s people.
Because the left in general, and the democrats in particular, are doing everything they possibly can to destroy us.
A minor problem is that Biden has been forced to beg the Saudis to increase production of oil. When that didn’t work, he is now leaning on the domestic producers. I have thought all along that bringing Iran back and reinstating the Iran agreement was the purpose of the RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA hysteria that probably either lead to this war or impeded attempts to halt it. If you desire a consistent realistic foreign policy for the US, never vote for Democrats.
“Do we have a temporary reprieve of sorts regarding the Biden administration’s intentions regarding Iran, due to Russian demands in light of its invasion of Ukraine?” neo
Yes, as long as Russia stays firm on its demands, which will probably last as long as the West is imposing sanctions upon Russia.
Yes, it seems likely that someone influential and persuasive in the administration realized that a postponement in Biden’s capitulation to Iran, until after the midterms is actually desirable for the democrats.
Robert Shotzberger,
Obama is NOT amazingly stupid about Iran. His actions vis a vis Iran are entirely intentional. So too with the Biden administration.
Tuvea has the right of it, “the left in general, and the democrats in particular, are doing everything they possibly can to destroy us”.
If the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the flag ranks of the military, the public health apparat, the federal judiciary, and the security services were traitors who had sold out to China, what would they have done differently the last three years?
joke bidet should just send in the cackling Kamala Harris – the top world class diplomat on earth of the last 500 years – and that other world class diplomat, Mr. Climate Change John Kerry, to negotiate with the Iranians.
An agreement would be reached within a few seconds.
All Harris and Kerry need do, to stop Iranian development of nuclear weapons, is agree that the USA will just give Iran whatever nukes they want, gratis. This way, Iran will have no need to develop their own nukes.
Iran just need promise that they will refrain from launching on Israel for at least 5 days and beyond that time frame, promise not to launch on Israel more than 25 nuclear missiles within any two week period.
Joke Bidet can have Peter Beinart announce the great achievement of such an agreement with Iran, in lieu of his current Minister of Propaganda, Jen Psaki.
This can allow Jen to take a two day intensive journalism course at the Joseph Geobbels School of Advanced Propaganda in Havana, Cuba.
“If the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the flag ranks of the military, the public health apparat, the federal judiciary, and the security services were traitors who had sold out to China, what would they have done differently the last three years?” Art Deco
That’s a trick question, right? 😉
In other VERY important news…
“Jordan Peterson – Warning: Bill 67”
https://youtu.be/iwQy-MVP4u0
Early ’90’s, a bar in Milwaukee, nearing closing, they hit the end-of-night playlist: “Drink, Drink” from the Student Prince, “One for My Baby” by Sinatra, and “Those Were the Days” by Mary Hopkin. Now, I’ll have that in my head all night, and I’m okay with that.
@ Art Deco – I thought some of them had sold out to Iran (Obama) and Ukraine (Biden).
How many “donors” are they each collecting from?
Glick’s conclusion is a not-so-veiled warning to Biden and Iran both.
I don’t think the Abraham Accords partners were very happy with the Democrats’ immediate, and highly disrespectful, abrogation of their efforts.
https://carolineglick.com/washingtons-betrayal-has-only-just-begun/
Minor correction: Caroline not Carolyn Glick
Marisa:
Fixed, thanks.
“Biden” policies WRT to the latest Iran “Deal” may have hit a temporary snag, but the plan to cut Israel down to size (i.e., force Israel to retreat to the May-1967 ceasefire lines) continues unabated:
“Biden admin offering $1 mil for groups to delegitimize Israel”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/323783
@ Barry > that’s pretty blatantly biased, especially considering what the Democrats (and some Republicans) are winking at in China, Iran, and other noted havens of Human Rights.
Everyone ought to be furious.
First, it’s not the business of any NGO, especially an American one, to target any nation — that’s allegedly what the UN is for (hah); and it’s really egregious to single out one specific nation — if you actually are looking at real atrocities, rather than alleged (non-existent) ones.
What a surprise it happens to be the only democracy in the Middle East, and the country that has the best human rights record in the neighborhood.
Caroline Glick’s Middle East News Hour (with guest Mike Doran): episode 42, Biden sets a trap for Israel — https://youtu.be/iwwEEje7Rv4
The Disconnect should be astounding. (But for some reason, it’s not…. Some reason…)
Anyway, compare and contrast:
“Biden claims ‘inflation is largely the fault of Putin,’ not Democratic spending”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-says-inflation-putin-fault-not-democratic-spending
“Biden is letting Putin run the Iran nuclear talks”—
https://nypost.com/2022/03/12/biden-is-letting-putin-run-the-iran-nuclear-talks/
“Kamala Harris says Dems’ [must] tell voters ‘they got what they ordered’ on Biden promises”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-address-dnc-saturday-after-europe-trip
Uh-huh, sure…as the corrupt media spins ever more furiously:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3svW8PM_jc
Sung to the words:
“Got to say…it’s Trump’s FAULT…”
A twitter thread (via @doranimated) by Dr Tallha Abdulrazaq on the Iranian missile strikes adjacent to the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq: https://mobile.twitter.com/DrTalAbdulrazaq/status/1502947716908912644
That was fascinating.
Thanks very much for the link.
If Putin, with his invasion of Ukraine, has indeed thrown “a spanner in the works” of the Iran “Deal”, that would be a most magnificent irony (even if it’ll be most likely short-lived, but who knows?)…
I believe short-lived won’t (because cannot) even start to live in the race to achieve the capitulation Malley and company aims to achieve, Barry. In other words I’d say the spanner is no spanner for Mallet (oops! Malley?) and company. Kinda like the kid with the spoon in “The Matrix”: there is no spoon.
Just like rust, Malley and Blinken never sleep.
Heh. As though they have ever once been awake, even.
Led by President Bondo*, who is alert and aware (* Brandon, to continue the automotive corrosion metaphor).
(We oughtn’t . . . yet we ought)
The Americans are as putty in his hands, that winning winner: Scranton Joe Brandon.
Is the person alert, aware, and oriented to his surroundings. Three essential questions a first aid provider asks a victim when rendering aid.
Off to church.
@ sdferr – great thread @DrTalAbdulrazaq- it was Unrolled at the request of Elie Wiesel (!), which is much easier to follow. Read the linked stories as well.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502947716908912644.html
Read this post by Abdulrazaq especially – it shows how much motivation Iran had to meddle in the 2020 US election. Taking Trump out was essential to their nuclear & terrorist ambitions.
It’s a long article, and I’ve only given his conclusion.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/trump%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98maximum-pressure%E2%80%99-iran-policy-getting-results-152676
May 10, 2020
Author Tallha Abdulrazaq is an award-winning academic and columnist specialising in counterterrorism and military history at the University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute in England.
Well, he got that right.
This is what the Iranians did to help make sure they got Biden back on the other side of the negotiation table. Speaking metaphorically, of course.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ballot-bombshells-20-episodes-exposing-fraud-illegalities-and
John Solomon, March 10, 2022
This is actually old news.
By following a series of links and doing some searching, I filled out the Iranian Hacker story, which I will put in a second comment.
This poster agrees with Abdulrazaq. He doesn’t give any links, as Solomon does in his posts, but he’s more effusive about the affects of the Iranian meddling, so I just thought I would throw it in.
It was not a “big surprise” to everyone following the news, but the DOJ indictment was only released in November 18, 2021.
https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/01/28/there-was-no-russian-collusion-in-2016-but-definitely-iranian-collusion-in-the-2020-us-presidential-elections/
Now, to begin at the beginning: this is a summary of the indictment and gives links to the documents.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-iranian-nationals-charged-cyber-enabled-disinformation-and-threat-campaign-designed
November 18, 2021
https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1449226/download
The Proud Boys hoax, mentioned in the preceding comment, is on page 3 of the indictment.
Briefly, the hackers emailed Democrats whose data they had obtained and threatened them with physical harm if they voted for Trump. They had the voters’ addresses, of course, and said that the voters were to change registration to Republican as a signal they would comply.
The implication (as I read the text; I can’t cut&paste from it) is that the senders would somehow know what the voters put on their ballots.
Most Americans (clearly, now, no longer all) would understand (or at least assume) that was a false claim, so this threat may be one of the things that tipped the FBI it was a false-flag op.
Solomon linked to the DOJ post, from which he got most of his information, and which identified the hackers with Emennett Pasargad, although Solomon omitted that detail.
I’m excerpting it instead of the DOJ press release, because it also has other interesting information about the election, and some commentary.
(FWIW JustTheNews renamed the document)
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-03/IranianHackerVoterDatabaseIndictment.pdf
* * *
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/new-federal-indictment-further-erodes-narrative-immaculate-2020-election
John Solomon November 19, 2021
I found these posts on my own.
I’m always intrigued by the way old news keeps getting repackaged, and what different outlets emphasize. The naming of Emennett Pasargad was clearly of more interest to Middle East observers & IT pros than it would have been to Solomon’s American readers.
https://inside.com/campaigns/inside-security-2022-02-01-31178/sections/268705
That article links back to (1) a Bloomberg post from November 2021, which was very short and uninformative; and (2) an analysis by a group that wants to sell VPN services, from January 2022.
Computer nerds may find some of the omitted text of interest.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/doj-charges-iranian-hackers-who-posed-as-pro-trump-proud-boys-1.1684075
November 18, 2020
https://www.zdnet.com/article/fbi-warns-over-iranian-cyber-group-tells-organizations-to-up-their-defenses/
January 27, 2022
I can’t find any indication that the named hackers have been arrested, and don’t expect to. However, a search for said apprehension turned up a lot of contemporary news posts about the indictments, and one about the bounty – anyone want to go for it?
https://fox8.com/news/10-million-reward-offered-for-iranian-nationals-accused-of-interfering-with-2020-u-s-presidential-election/
Iran didn’t like the mean tweets, er, indictments.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/19/iran-condemns-us-sanctions-over-meddling-in-presidential-vote
The US recently renewed the call for information, so I guess this group didn’t make it into Malley’s negotiation give-aways to Iran.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/02/03/US-re-offers-10-mln-for-information-on-Iran-hackers-accused-of-election-interference
This list by Noronha of terrorists that Biden intends to send off with his blessing doesn’t include the hackers, but they might still make the final cut – if there is one.
https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/perfidy-in-vienna?s=r
Sooo I got curious about whether this false-flag op got any play in 2020, and it did.
I even had an article already bookmarked.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/01/while-fearmongering-about-voter-intimidation-the-left-promises-to-revolt-if-trump-wins/
Copious factual details of the Resistance, as opposed to baseless allegations about MAGA country.
Phenomenal stuff, AF….
I.e, your sleuthing…(Not the actual perps)…
(Having said that, I would be wary of allowing this gruesome episode to divert attention, and blame, from Democrat Party EVIL to Iranian hackers—though maybe the point is that there was collusion there, too? (As in, “Peacocks of a feather”?) To be sure, the Mullahs may have overthrown the Pahlavis, but they’ve been acting far more reprehensively…as a great many Iranians themselves have discovered…)
Anyway, thanks much….
Add here my thanks to Barry’s, AesopFan. Splendid work.