Comments

Roundup time — 54 Comments

1. Yes, buying from Iran seems highly likely at this point with this administration. But again oil is sold on a world market and if the going price is $150 a barrel or something it doesn’t really matter where it comes from as far as price is concerned.

   They’ll be looking to suspend the federal gas tax also I imagine. Maybe send out more stimulus checks to offset gas prices. Seriously these clowns would do that.

   As I said in the open thread even if Biden totally reversed himself that would probably take months to show up in the price of oil if at all.

   I guess it’s not popular now but does nobody care about the impact the price of gas has on average Americans?

2. “Biden”‘s major (and perhaps easiest) goal is to totally wreck energy production and availability. Once this is achieved all the other “dominoes” fall nicely into place (the economy sputters, supply chains are broken across the board, food availability drops catastrophically, societal collapse is rampant, etc.)

   Engineered destruction, you might say.

   (Well, it’s one way to “ensure” a globalized autocracy…and defang MAGA forever…)

3. Even if they went crazy drilling in the US how would that work as far as price goes if people want the US to be totally independent when oil is still sold on a global market?

   Are we going to exit that market?

   I saw someone claim that if we went totally independent gas would cost $2 a gallon. For that to work oil would have to be something like $40-50 barrel (it’s like $115 now). Are we going to force domestic producers to sell for a third of what they can get on the world market because that world market is driven by a million different things and lots of them are not free market driven factors.

   This is the thing about this that has bothered me is people go on and on about Ukraine and I agree that is a very serious matter but I have hard time saying that a bunch of average citizens should be greatly harmed economically by choice, because that is what it would be if we stop buying Russian energy.

   I get this isn’t popular around most parts now but I think our elected officials should look out for our interests first then we can think about foreign nations and peoples.

4. after listening to politicians and media lied about trump and his supporters and our election and covid and everything around the world for 6 years you are going to wholeheartedly believe them again? I guess they only lie about trump because he is a putin puppet and truly an evil man but for everything else they are completely truthful… I don’t know what is going on but when an bad but relatively rational man suddenly acts completely irrational instead of believing the narrative that he has gone crazy maybe something else is going on. Only truth i know is for all rumors we have heard about biden and his son’s dealings with ukraine coincidentally Ukraine is the exact place a war breaks out 1 year after he took office, seriously you are going to forgive democrats and trust them again? these are people who framed an innocent man of rape just because they didn’t want him to be on the supreme court…

5. If that question is directed at me, I would assume that—as in the Trump years—making US oil production a priority would have the effect of lowering global prices across the board. Supply and demand.

   (…unless I’m not understanding something here.)

   Aside from that, energy independence should be seen as an obvious strategic necessity (apart from the economic advantages mentioned).

   However, if “Biden”‘s goal is to gravely weaken America then there is nothing really to wonder about here. (Which is why pundits and experts, statesmen and politicians, etc. offering “Biden” advice regarding what “he” must do to “improve” this or that situation—to “fix the problem”, to “reverse the slide”, to stabilize the crisis”—are so bizarre….)

6. 1) I’m under the impression that most Russian men are big drinkers.

   2) Agreed, little chance of passage. The climate change religion has such a hold upon them that the democrats are committed to political suicide. So there is a bit of a “silver lining”.

   3) Will Iran settle for following Putin’s example of nuclear blackmail or will they use their coming nuclear ICBM capability? Will Israel act proactively, risking onerous economic boycotts from the Western nations?
   As for the “Great Satan”, Russia has sold on the open market missile systems that can be used from commercial container ships. Simultaneous inshore launches off our Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf coasts would allow for little time to react.

   4) I rather doubt that Gascon et al will ever be held accountable for their complicity in murder, rape, assault and theft.

   5) Even criminal gangs realize the counter productive nature of bleeding the ‘client’ to death.

7. Barry,

   I agree energy independence is good and should be our goal but of course that is not the goal of the left so it’s a fairytale until they are out of power and also it is not a simple quick process results wise.

   If they had a policy where there was a strong push for more domestic drilling coincided with a drawdown of oil purchases from bad actors that would be one thing but instead we have an either or. Either get 20% of our energy from Russia or build a bunch of windmills and have sky high gas prices.

8. Dave:

   I’m not basing what I say here on the MSM. I don’t watch them or even read them much. A great deal of what I write here is based on Putin’s own words, for example.

   Also, Hunter Biden dealt with Ukraine when his father was vice-president, not in recent years.

   I don’t usually criticize people’s spelling or grammar, but it seems either you don’t proofread or that you are from another country.

9. Anyone know if Congress must approve the suspension of the federal gas tax?. More stimulus checks to offset gas prices might gain passage in Congress but I imagine not before the price of gas climbs above $6.-7. a gallon.

   Barry Meislin,

   The aftermath of an engineered societal collapse would not end well for its architects.

10. Oil prices are manipulated as much as possible by OPEC (of which Russia is a member) and big speculators. The price right now is an emotional price. If the Saudis, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq wanted to, they could drive the price down to $75 just by announcing new, higher production levels. They won’t do that because they enjoy getting $100 + for their oil. The only option for the free world is for the U.S. to go back to full production and stay there until OPEC and the speculators are no longer such a big part of the equation – as was the case in 2019 when oil prices averaged about $56/barrel under Trump.

    Energy prices underly the cost of everything. Our big inflation of the 1970s and early 80s was the result of OPEC oil embargoes in the1970s.
    “The embargoes sent gas prices through the roof. Between 1973-1974, prices more than quadrupled. The embargoes contributed to stagflation. In response to the oil crisis, the United States took steps to become increasingly energy independent.”

    How quickly we forget the lessons of those years. Since then, we have become far more energy efficient and we developed fracking, which increased both our oil and natural gas reserves. The AGW cultists oppose this, but they have no answer for producing energy except for intermittent solar and wind – which is totally unworkable. The only way forward is through nuclear power combined with becoming ever more energy efficient. That’s what a sensible, serious nation would do. Our Democrat leaders are neither serious nor sensible.

11. J.J.,

    Yep, agree with everything you say but it would be very painful in that intermediate time where our production would be forcing OPEC and the others to break and of course OPEC and Russia have been working in tandem recently so how would that work in this current world environment?

    But the major problem is this conversation is pure fantasyland because there is no way the left will let Biden go all in on production even if he wanted to so it is all bad for the people with no visible upside.

12. Also even if the Biden administration or Congress went all in on energy production you can guarantee a gazillion environmental groups would sue and some Hawaiian judge would issue an order stopping it all everywhere so it wouldn’t matter anyway.

    Wish I was wrong but it is just wishful thinking as long as this group is in power so to do one (cut off Russian energy) without the other insures major economic pain for average people while Putin sells all his oil to China and others which further tightens the Chinese grip on Russia.

13. Griffin:

    If there are going to be quick reactions in oil production in the US as a result of Vlad’s good idea, look for it to happen in Texas, North Dakota or other states with leases not controlled by the Feds. As of last week the number of land rigs was up by 12% in comparison to the week ending 12/31/21. Long term responses? I don’t know.

    See https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count?stream=top

    Commenter “West TX intermediate” is probably the guy that would have a good take on the domestic oil production situation.

14. Republicans need to get the damn Democrats on record as denying the fact that their enviro-whack policies have fueled Russian aggression, and then mop the floor with them in November!

    Either the Republican Party does it now, or they wait for President Trump, and if they wait that long it may be too late… at least too late to do it legally and without violence. If the American people finally come to the conclusion that neither party is serious about protecting them, they are going to be mighty irritable and out of patience. Many of us already believe the law only protects the left anyway!

15. Forgive me for my ignorance, but foreign politics and history are pretty much my worst subject (to say nothing of my public school education).

    But aren’t Iran and Russia essentially on the same side? Do I have that wrong? Because I genuinely don’t understand how this Iran deal can be spun as a positive thing if Iran is gonna be allowed to strengthen their nuclear capabilities while they support Russia, who essentially has their hand hovering over the their nuclear missile buttons as we speak.

    Can someone tell me how the Biden administration can sell this to the public in a positive manner while WWIII is quickly brewing? What are they touting as the positives to this deal?

16. om,

    Yes, obviously for private land leases an increase in the price of oil should cause a huge jump in drilling because there is more profit to be made but is that enough because it doesn’t seem like it is. I actually have the mineral rights to a small piece of land in ND that nobody seems interested in exploring even though the area seems oil rich. Had a lease about ten years ago that expired without them even doing anything so my dreams of striking it rich in oil have so far alluded me.

    But for the overall picture I guess the private lands are not enough in themselves.

17. Griffin:

    If your land and lease isn’t aligned with a favorable subsurface structural trend that might explain the lack of interest, just guessing.

    The Baker-Hughes table has onshore and offshore breakouts of rig counts by state.

    TX is the biggest producer in the country by a huge margin, all onshore being state leases not Federal IIRC.

    Offshore leases and production is more complicated IIRC.

18. om,

    You may be right. I inherited the rights so it wasn’t like some big investment I made but I got a fair amount of money from some company wanting to explore the land so not all was lost.

19. As I said in the open thread even if Biden totally reversed himself that would probably take months to show up in the price of oil if at all.

    Not true. Market prices are forward-looking. Spot prices are based not on what that particular barrel of oil cost to produce but what its replacement barrel is going to cost when the contract is due. Just the announcement of a change in American policy will have an immediate downward influence on current prices.

20. “aren’t Iran and Russia essentially on the same side?” NS

    It’s been reported that Russia under Putin was instrumental with technological assistance in Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability.

21. Griffin, I remember the 1970s vividly because I was adversely affected by the oil embargoes. The airline industry was on life support for over ten years. Pilots were being laid off by the thousands. I was at the bottom of the seniority list for eight years and expected to be furloughed at any time.

    People struggled to adjust to the gas prices and the rising prices of everything. Our leadership: Nixon, Ford, and Carter had no answers except CONSERVATION. And that has proven to be a partial answer. We are now the most energy efficient user of fossil fuels in the world. But we could do more on that front.

    However, fracking has opened up vast new reserves, especially of natural gas. If the oil industry was turned loose as it was under Trump, it would blunt the oil prices. Lowering federal spending, raising interest rates, and untangling the supply chain would also help to fight inflation. That might create a recession, but the longer this inflationary spiral continues the worse the eventual crash will be. As they say, there are no easy answers, only choices. 🙁

    I agree that the AGW cultists will fight it every step of the way. AGW cultists delenda est! They are a threat to humanity in the free world. (Russia and China have no intentions of getting rid of fossil fuels.)

22. mkent,

    Yes if the US announced an immediate shift to more drilling that would effect price in and of itself and it’s why Biden should have done this a month ago (or never stop obviously) then he would have the hammer over Putin but what would happen if the US announced that and Putin responded by stopping oil shipments to the US immediately?

    All those new hypothetical leases won’t produce oil tomorrow with all the logistical and regulatory hoops and that assumes some judge doesn’t block the whole thing so if Putin cut off his 20% immediately we would really have to scramble to avoid major shortages and you know what happens to price when shortages happen.

    This is why the moves to kill Keystone and close off federal lands were so stupid and damaging in the first place.

23. Thread on manpower needed for an oilrig.

    https://twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1500247231722668044

24. Remember “55”? Can’t imagine getting that imposed again. Right now few drive the speed limit.

25. Griffin: We might as well get used to not having Russian oil now, because after Ukraine and Moldova, next will be Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and then NATO will be at war with Russia. We need to squeeze Russia hard now to prevent that from happening.

26. mkent,

    Definitely agree about getting used to life without Russian oil if only the current administration would start planning for it.

    Also saw this thread at Instapundit about the size of the Russian military and how it compares with WWII Germany. If they have this much trouble taking Ukraine seems highly unlikely they will be able to take anything else.

    https://twitter.com/PaulDMiller2/status/1499843555228983301

27. Despite my moniker, I’m not in the oil business, but have lived in the oil patch for a while. My knowledge is based on what I read and hear.
    Part of the current problem for the US is that oil producers are coming to their senses, and not chasing the last dollar. The old boom and bust in the oil industry has lead some to riches, but many to bankruptcy. In the past, it has been only economic trends that they had to deal with, now there is also the bitter political aspect. The oil companies know that if they go all out to produce more immediately, they will be short term heroes and long term bums, as the political establishment will turn on them the minute they are no longer useful. Their 6 million dollar projects (rough cost of a well) will be worthless as the price of oil and the means of production get manipulated by the watermelons. While it may seem like they are going Galt, really what they are doing is learning from their past mistakes and showing themselves smarter than the politicians.
    For some background, see (paywalled WSJ article):
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-hold-back-production-as-oil-nears-100-a-barrel-11645150760?mod=Searchresults_pos15&page=1

28. West TX Intermediate Crude:

    Thanks for your perspective, boom and bust is bad enough, but dealing with eco-zealots, some who are in the present junta, is a serious challenge to the domestic oil and gas industry. But you said that. 🙂

29. Geoffrey Britain on March 5, 2022 at 6:32 pm
    “It’s been reported that Russia under Putin was instrumental with technological assistance in Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability.”

    I had not seen this idea expressed before and thus it might be one of those “unknown knowns” mentioned earlier. We don’t want to face the impact of bad nuke guys helping advance other bad nuke guys capabilities – at least maybe just up to near the “break out” point. And some of that help might even have been “legitimate” assistance with nuclear power instead of weapons??

    Raises a parallel question as to if or who the US might have helped along the way, as well? Israel, UK, France, Japan? S. Korea? Maybe even India???
    Someone here probably knows more about the likelihood of this than I do.

30. I seem to remember some major players saying basically ‘that’s it we’re done’ after Biden cancelled Keystone. It was no longer worth the trouble to deal the whipsawing policies and it may be the case with drilling companies as well.

    That twitter thread I linked above laid out all involved in starting one rig. It’s not a small thing now multiply by hundreds or thousands only to get screwed over in a year or two.

31. “How quickly we forget the lessons of those years.”

    But “Biden” has NOT forgotten.
    Isn’t that precisely the point?
    – – – – – – – – –
    “But aren’t Iran and Russia essentially on the same side?…
    Russia is on Russia’s side. At the moment (and for the foreseeable future, that means that Russia supports Iran, as does “Biden”. Does this mean that “Biden” supports Russia? Seems counterintuitive. You decide…

    “Because I genuinely don’t understand how this Iran deal can be spun as a positive thing…”

    Ah, leave that to Psaki and the “Biden”‘s foot-soldiers: the corrupt and perverted media and infotech.

    (Besides, it’s NOT “Emmanuel Goldstein”!!)

32. “The aftermath of an engineered societal collapse would not end well for its architects.”

    Maybe in the long term. Maybe. (Note, however, who exactly has benefited from engineering Covid and the Covid response…though, true, that might be ultimately “short term”—it’s too soon to tell; Just ask Chou en Lai/Zhou Enlai https://www.scmp.com/article/970657/not-letting-facts-ruin-good-story —but it is rather refreshing—encouraging?—to note the current trajectory of Pfizer and Moderna (and others?) shares…AND it is rather curious that Il Fauci appears, for the past while, to have “gone dark”, i.e., been adhering to “radio silence”. WHY?)

    P.S. I also have a soft spot for going “Biblical”-type retribution (AKA “moral” consequences, AKA “what goes around comes around”, etc.); however, if the global elites feel they have a “lock” on political power, decision-making AND on the media/infotech, which (latter) is able to skew anything and everything, then this extraordinary and unprecedented scope of “control” might just prove to be a game changer. YMMV

33. “…Seems counterintuitive….”

    Just to clarify: for the perverse (e.g., “Biden”) the so-called “counterintuitive” is a handy little tool to confound the “enemy”—its effectiveness residing in its ability to engender (even better than straight-out LYING) confusion…

    (Keeping in mind just WHO ARE “Biden”‘s enemies…)

34. Related:
    Gas prices under “Biden”—
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10160383005724057&set=p.10160383005724057&type=3
    H/T Instapundit.

    + Bonus:
    “Wall Street Is Quietly Trading For The Return Of Russia”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-quietly-trading-return-russia-sparking-liz-warrens-outrage

35. + Shell game….
    ‘Following Global Outrage, Shell Says It Only Bought Russian Oil After “Intense Talks With Governments”‘—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/following-global-outrage-shell-says-it-only-bought-russian-oil-after-intense-talks

36. Never forget that “Biden” is doing “his” very best to end the war in Ukraine:
    “Report: US will help Zelensky flee Ukraine”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/323335

    And what are the chances that if “he” “succeeds”, “he” will claim another “victory” (like the one in Afghanistan)…?

37. Price controls and rationing are coming to a gas station near you. It will be an ‘Emergency Measure’.

38. @GB

    5) Even criminal gangs realize the counter productive nature of bleeding the ‘client’ to death.

    True, as long as the ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ doesn’t happen, ie, a bunch of independent gangs say ‘if we don’t grab it, them other guys will’.

39. Griffin:

    https://www.rigzone.com/news/how_high_could_oil_go-4-mar-2022-168130-article/?utm_campaign=DAILY_2022_03_04&utm_source=GLOBAL_ENG&utm_medium=EM_NW_F1

    $130 per barrel

40. Purports to be an American in Kharkiv.

    Ukraine links (short)
    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1500194233474502658/pu/vid/576×1280/DhEg9MtVZ8UMcT6-.mp4?tag=12

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1500194917171314696/pu/vid/576×1280/_UtWiPUAbQ4HK0nk.mp4?tag=12

41. Comment seen on another blog. Personally, if the Biden Regime went for amoral RealPolitik I would be more reassured than by the, to me, incoherence.

    “America is funding both sides of this war.
    We’re buying oil, and just a couple days ago Janet Yellen extended $18Bbbbillion to Moscow. Un-effing-believable.
    Now, a former undersecretary of the USNavy wants to ship over three squadrons of Warthogs for the Ukrainian Air Force to use.
    YGBSM.
    The losers in this are the troops in the field who are doing the killing and dying, the civilians dying, and American (and likely european) taxpayers paying the fare “

42. om,

    Yep. Gas $4 a gallon next stop $4.50 with shortages. I predict they will suspend the federal gas tax this week.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/national-average-for-a-gallon-of-gas-tops-4-the-highest-price-at-the-pump-since-2008.html

43. So now the administration is turning to Venezuela as well as Iran all the while they are driving Russia deeper into the arms of China.

    What is the possible long term benefit for Visa/Mastercard to cut off ordinary Russian citizens purchases leading to Russia turning to a Chinese counterpart of Visa/Mastercard.

    Incredibly stupid but, hey, we have cancelled Russian cats, teenage hockey players, opera singers, race car drivers etc. so whatever I guess.

44. This was not the reason given for the Russ invasion, so I assume this is standard diplomatic splattering of mud on the wall. Not a serious issue.
    Still, in light of Covid, it makes for an interesting data point. How many bio-war labs do “we” have scattered across the world?

    @ASBMilitary
    BREAKING: Russia publishes documents which show Ukraine was working on biological weapons near russian borders — such as Anthrax and Plague & that the pentagon has instructed to destroy them — violating article 1 UN prohibition of biological weapons. — These are US funded labs

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500499205663645700

    One guy says it’s not a big deal:
    Before the war u could find documents about this in US oficial page. Let me find it and send some screenshots.

    Another guy says:
    The US Embassy in #Ukraine has just deleted from its website all documents about 11 Pentagon-funded biolaboratories in Ukraine.

45. Gotta keep yer enemy confused and perplexed, confounded and exasperated.

    Gotta keep ’em GUESSING…. OFF-BALANCE…. UNCERTAIN…. SCARED.

    IOW “Biden” is waging asymmetric war against the American people.

    Wait! That CAN’T be right…

    (Meanwhile, in Iran…and if it so happens that it IS right, then what does that mean vis-a-vis the war in Ukraine?)

46. “Biden”‘s war on American Energy (continued):
    “Our present bewilderment;
    “Greta Thunberg-style eco-apocalypse ranting is now common sense on the left”—
    https://spectatorworld.com/topic/present-bewilderment-richard-powers-energy-ukraine/
    H/T Powerline blog.
    Key grafs:
    …’But no matter the material facts, the political fact is that Biden must appease a constituency of well “educated” worshippers in the Climate Cathedral. And that meant sabotaging America’s energy independence.
    ‘Bad enough that oil is now trading for over $100 per barrel. The real costs include the body count in Ukraine, the destabilization of Europe and the prospect of a wider war. Rational observers have amply pointed out that Putin would not and could not have made a move if the United States has maintained its energy production at anything like the level of the Trump years. Instead, we handed him the power of the pump.”…’

47. John Fisher: “Price controls and rationing are coming to a gas station near you. It will be an ‘Emergency Measure”

    I think you’re right. That’s the kind of solution that central government planners really like.

48. The California marijuana tax problem seems another variation of the Frog and the Scorpion story, which I wager most know here. Nonetheless:

    The Scorpion asks the Frog for ferry across the river. The Frog objects that the Scorpion will sting him. The Scorpion counters that the Scorpion would drown too. So the Frog obliges.

    Of course, the Scorpion stings the Frog anyway. The Frog asks, “How could you? Now we’ll both drown.”

    The Scorpion replies, “It’s in my nature.”

    One might think (I did) this is from an old Aesop Fable, but it apparently comes out of Russian literature and was introduced to English-speaking audiences by Orson Welles in his film, “Mr. Arkadin.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog

    Recreational marijuana becomes legally for sale in New Mexico stores on April 1. Yet I’ve seen no indication how that happens. Do the medical marijuana dispensaries start selling to all comers? Are there recreational stores (“Cannabis R Us”) about to open on Central Ave?

    As the Magic Eight Ball might say:
    ________________________

    Reply hazy, try again.
    ________________________

    Still plenty of time to kill the biz with excessive taxes.

49. Democrats certainly have the Midas Touch, but with poop instead of gold.

50. @ Griffin > “What is the possible long term benefit for Visa/Mastercard to cut off ordinary Russian citizens purchases leading to Russia turning to a Chinese counterpart of Visa/Mastercard.”

    David Foster’s post at CB has a comment that addresses your question – but the benefit does not accrue to the credit card companies or to the west.
    It has a certain resemblance to recent actions by our northern neighbor, M. Trudeau, that ended up with bank runs to — who knows where?

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/67323.html#comment-1055019

    Gavin Longmuir
    March 4, 2022 at 5:29 pm
    Also worthwhile reading — a perspective which will not be on CNN, for sure.
    https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-2/

    Generally, Armstrong assesses that the Russian campaign is going better than Twitter would say. But his most interesting — and relevant, if we can avoid all-out nuclear war — are his comments on the consequences for us in the West of our own “leaders” sanctions against Russia:

    “Judo is about deception and using the opponent’s strength against him. Putin, the judoka, has judoed the West into suicide. Put your money in our banks, we can confiscate it; put your assets in our territory, we can steal them; use our money and we can cancel it; put your yacht in our harbour, we can pirate it; put your gold in our vault, we can grab it. That is a lesson that will resound around the world. A naked illustration that the “rules-based international order” is simply that we make the rules and order you to obey them. In 2 or 3 weeks everybody in the world who is on the potential Western hit list will have moved his assets out of the reach of the West. Xi will permit himself a small smile.”

    I don’t think Putin judoed the West at all, because I (among others) don’t think he believed the West would suddenly rally around in unity (finally! on something!) to tank his economy for invading Ukraine.
    However, the actions will have the consternation predicted.
    EXCEPT that Xi has already demonstrated that China will do exactly the same things!

    What to do, what to do —-

51. Since Mayor Pete called me a racist, I’m calling him an appeaser and traitor.

52. California STUPID rides AGAIN!!

53. The title of these posts calls to mind an image of Neo spreading weed killer on a little postage stamp lawn in front of a suburban townhouse outside Boston.

54. Apropos of,
    AesopFan on March 7, 2022 at 5:42 am said:

    US bank stocks are down 5 to 6% today. The market as a whole is down, but not that much. JP Morgan is not quite so bad.

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