Reading Putin’s mind
[NOTE: I don’t usually post on Sundays, but so much is happening that I thought I’d just put up a brief one and start a new thread that way. So here it is.]
Wish I was a mind reader, but I’m not. One question I’d like answered is whether Putin has really gone off the deep end or whether he’s just being threatening as a negotiating tactic. It could be some strange combination of the two, of course, but which predominates? His actions have already seemed over-the-top in launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and in throwing even more forces into the fray.
The threat of nuclear weapons is now more explicit from him, although it’s always been in the air. There is a surreal quality about it all, but it’s very real nonetheless.
It seems that “Biden” (via Psaki) is now devoting seriously knit eyebrows wondering about PUTIN’s mental state.
Touche! (Under any other circumstances would make a terrific comedy routine….)
Psst, Ms. Psaki, if it IS eyeball-to-eyeball stuff, “Biden” can always rely, with absolute confidence, on “his” tremendous victory in Afghanistan. No, Putin simply wouldn’t dare.
Vlad should have paid more attention to his precious bodily fluids. And he should brew his own tea.
On a happier note an Associate Pastor’s son working for a NGO(?) in Moscow was on the last flight out of Moscow yesterday. Arrived in Budapest safely.
It’s hard to know what portion of what one reads is accurate – either reporting on the conflict or what one reads of Putin. But it clear the guy is a deeply delusional, loose-screw megalomaniac. His notions of Russian grandeur are at once both comical and frightening. Why we pursue an energy policy that pads this guy’s bank account is far, far beyond me.
However, and this is an optimistic note, it could be that Putin’s risk of ending up swinging by his heels a la Mussolini may be increasing with the passage of time. As with everything in life, we will see . . . .
Just discovered that Psaki’s on a roll. Absolutely outdoing herself today (which is REALLY saying something):
‘Psaki: Biden Wants To Rely On Foreign Energy So U.S. Can “Look At” Green Alternatives’—
https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/02/psaki-biden-wants-to-rely-on-foreign-energy-so-u-s-can-look-at-green-alternatives/
Which offers further—concrete—proof (though it’s true that one does keep forgetting) that NOTHING that emerges from the mouths of this administration or its supporters should be believed.
Shorter version: “OF COURSE we STILL HAVE TO buy energy from Russia, I mean, what can you possibly be thinking??”)
(OTOH, I suppose some things might turn out to be true, by accident most likely.)
Putin seems to have misjudged the situation and anticipated the Ukraine folding quickly. Had Zelenskyy taken the Biden regime’s advice, that would have worked. Now, Putin has to risk failure with high casualties. The US and Europe are still funding his adventure with oil and gas purchases but it may not be enough. I have seen estimates of $20 billion a day to fund his war.
This week, 38% of Democrats agreed that Putin would not have done this if Trump was in office. What will it be next week? Then, of course, GOP renegade Kinzinger wants to get us in to war with Russia.
His political career is as dead as Putin’s so why not?
Putin’s puppet Lukashenko is now echoing the warning about nuclear war; clearly they’re desperate. The Russian military was utterly unprepared for this operation, though they’d been deploying for months. Did his generals assume it was all a bluff, and did Putin launch this invasion against their advice?
Sir Anthony Brevor, highly regarded historian on Vlad’s behaviour:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10555893/SIR-ANTONY-BEEVOR-mind-Putin-thinks-hes-avenging-mistakes-Lenin-Stalin.html
Linked from https://powerlineblog.com
It is apparent Putin misjudged what would happen when his troops invaded, and as Mike K has said, if Zelensky had listened to the USGovernment, he would have left the country and it probably would have fallen by now.
So Putin finds himself in an untenable position: if he takes a step back, he will look very weak, but if he ramps up hostilities, he will look like a madman. I’m guessing he’d rather be the latter than the former.
What does he do now? Again, a guess, but my guess is that he will double down and increase the pressure.
Every night I go to sleep wondering if Ukraine will still be fighting the next morning — today my wonder is even more acute, because the new Russian troops coming in from Belarus and through Odessa are not going to be as weak as the troops who originally invaded. Those were new recruits who apparently thought they were going on a training mission near the border. The new contingent will be battle hardened troops who know what they’re supposed to do and will get right to it.
Ukraine’s hope now is that the new anti-tank and anti-air missiles arrive from Western Europe before the Russians crush the country.
A couple weeks ago Zaphod posted a link to a David Goldman article:
___________________________________
It is hard to envisage a popular insurgency against Russian or any other invaders. No one goes to the barricades in adult diapers. The most aspirational and energetic young Ukrainians aren’t in Ukraine.
An old 1960’s meme, “What if they gave a war and nobody came?” comes to mind. According to a December 2021 opinion poll, three-quarters of Ukrainians said that rising oil and gas bills were their top worry – not the prospect of a Russian invasion.
That doesn’t suggest a surge of patriotic resentment against Russian threats, but rather a glum mood of national resignation and concern about the petty problems of daily life.
–David Goldman, “What if They Had a War But There Was No One There to Begin With?”
https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/01/27/what-if-they-had-a-war-but-there-was-no-one-there-to-begin-with-n1553825
___________________________________
I’ve been reading Goldman since the 2000s under his pen name, “Spengler,” presumably for Oswald “Decline of the West” Spengler. I hold Goldman in high regard for his original, well-thought-out pieces.
However, he seems to have gotten Ukraine wrong and slandered a strong, defiant people.
Putin and the other Russian leaders are perfectly sane. It’s the American and European leaders who are insane. Even the invasion fo Ukraine makes sense. The US/NATO flatly refused to discuss any of the Russian concerns.
Bob Sykes:
Otay, makes perfect sense.
I’ve been waiting for this, in the US, but I thought it would be Whoopi Goldberg saying this is white people killing white people so it’s not a big deal. Instead, it’s Nikole Hannah-Jones, the 1619 Project author, who says the coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian war is racist. We’re only concerned about people with blond hair and blue eyes, you see. She obviously hasn’t seen the photos of Zelenskyy.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nyt-journalist-media-russia-ukraine-racial-biases
But it’s always nice to have your own private pitbull, isn’t it, Bob?
‘Belarus’ Lukashenko Says West Is Pushing Russia Into “Third World War”‘—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/belarus-lukashenko-says-west-pushing-russia-third-world-war
On the NATO, NATO, NATO argument: NATO would have died a quiet death if, after the collapse of the USSR, Russia had become another country among many, taking care of Russian business. After what happened in Europe in the 20th century, it is only natural that European countries should worry when the Russian dictator says he wants all the Soviet territory back, especially the former Soviet satellites who don’t want to go back there.
I do agree that this is a European fight, and American troops should not be involved. Europe needed to be taking care of its own defense for quite some time now. Russia is no longer an international communist threat to the entire world. It’s a regional expansionist threat. Pretending this is all justified Russian defensive moves is nonsense.
Kate:
That Hanna is truly a profoundly stupid woman, and a race grifter.
I hold Goldman in high regard for his original, well-thought-out pieces.
I don’t. I caught him around about 2010 uttering demonstrable nonsense during his time as one of J. Bottum’s stable of bloggers at First Things. It was, as it often is with him, panic porn. It was about the financial system, formerly his place of employment, and you could tell it was buncombe just looking at Federal Reserve data.
The veiled nuclear threat is part and parcel of the Russian strategy. Now that it has failed expect isolated reports of the use of nerve gas. New Russian units may be better trained than the cannon fodder the Ukrainians have faced so far, but now a lot of the defenders have been blooded.
I’m fascinated to know contra whom Putin is contemplating the use of nuclear weapons.
Huxley – I share your admiration for Goldman and for similar reasons. Through the years I’ve often hoped he’s wrong more than I’ve thought he’s wrong.
I have to say I’ve taken a real liking to this Zelensky fellow. When he was elected I thought he’d be a bit of a clown. Amazing what a willingness to die bravely will do for one’s reputation.
Related news briefs:
“EU Provides $500 Million To Buy Arms For Ukraine; Turkey Readies Closure Of Straits To Russian Navy”…and much more—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-president-agrees-hold-talks-without-preconditions-russia-belarus-border
Also:
https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/russia-continues-ukraine-invasion-live-updates
What seems truly bizarre to me is that the nations of Europe and the United States did not put in place very early on very severe sanctions. I mean by this sanctions that really would have deterred Putin.
Now NATO nations and even the neutral nations of Europe are all rushing to send deadly weapons to the Ukraine. This seems to me to be exactly backwards because these actions can do nothing but provoke Putin to escalate the conflict. Could this lead to a major war in Europe? Of course. My question is why in the world could all of these intelligent people in the West be so stupid?
It makes me wonder if there is something else going on that no one is talking about. Is this all a gigantic diversion from the pandemic and the terribly worsening worldwide economy? Does Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum have his fingers in this, and is it serving to advance his agenda for the Great Reset?
Grotesque, gratuitously vicious—and as it happens, very wrong—article by Goldman. A career ender, I would think.
Not even sure if an apology would suffice. Maybe.
Perhaps he holds a grudge or is carrying some weighty personal, or family, baggage; maybe he thought he was being funny; maybe he was drunk.
Certainly, Ukraine has “issues” and a fraught history. Nonetheless, remarkably unprofessional.
(This from someone who almost always found his article of great interest, generally well source, at times creative and even exhilirating; while never afraid of being opinionated. But this article is out of left field….)
From an acquaintance’s blog:
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-party-of-chaos-blows-its-cover/
The author is/was a lifelong liberal democrat…
Yes, you’re right Barry. I’m pretty sure Goldman has admitted he’s a drinking man. I like to think he was drunk when he wrote it.
Om’s link on Sir Anthony Brevor is spot on, it seems to me. Putin is like the Islamists in this respect. Territory once held by these respective empires always belongs to them by right, in their view.
Goldman misread Ukraine badly. He thought what Putin apparently thought, that Ukraine would collapse like a house of cards within hours.
What seems truly bizarre to me is that the nations of Europe and the United States did not put in place very early on very severe sanctions. I mean by this sanctions that really would have deterred Putin.
Are you kidding? We and the EU are still buying oil and gas from Russia as the war continues. Pitiful does not adequately describe the west’s response.
38% of Democrats agree this would not have happened if Trump was president.
Invasion or peace keepers under the scalpel? A Slavic Spring, 32 trimesters following the violent Western-backed coup in progress without reconciliation and remediation. Democracy, demos-cracy is aborted at the Twilight Fringe, a wicked solution. Perhaps the Russians will fare better than the UN et al. Let us bray in consensus.
Russia sounds like a problem a world away until you look at the map and it is literally our neighbor. isolationists see every foreign crisis as something very far away until pearl harbor taught us Japan is actually our neighbor separated by just an ocean that they can bring an suicide squad to attack us unopposed.
Mike K, plus, the Biden team reiterated that they will not consider backing off their anti-energy production policies because of “climate change.”
Putin doesn’t want to be Stalin, he wants to be Peter the great.
Maybe the Russians are trying to capture Ukraine , not destroy it. They seem very careful to kill as few civilians as possible. Most destruction is military and and the 7 or 8 CIA installations producing biological weapons.
When the Russian Army encounters strong opposition the pullback and slowly in circle the combatants .
Of course we know that the first victim in a war is ,the truth . We can believe little or nothing we see/hear about what is going on.
Mangus:
Just maybe they would rather that the bear (Vlad) would learn from this mistake. Something about mostly Russian (USSR) behavior from the last century not wanting to be revisited. Not wanting to an involuntary
part of someone else’s empire, again.
But maybe it’s because NATO is forcing them to do it (Jedi mind control or WEF mass hypnosis). A deep dark mystery. Or not.
JD Keene,
A fair, frank accounting of a horrendous situation.
Not sure how the country is going to be able to extract itself from the predicament foisted upon it by relentless evil men and women.
Still, thanks much for the link.
Phew…..
I’ll take Putin over Team Joe every day of the week and several times on Sunday. Meanwhile,
“REMINDER: There is no bigger story in the world than Western governments turning against their own people.
That gets fixed or nothing else matters.”
– DJT
I agree.
Just background, because it’s several months old, here’s a podcast featuring a Russian emigre who has worked for our DIA. She says our intelligence/diplomatic establishment still doesn’t get the Russians, Putin in particular.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/putins-plan/id1556268184?i=1000536505912
There’s rumors that Trudeau’s idiocy has caused an underground panic in the Canadian banking system. And the Canadian banking system includes some very large, global banks.
Now Russian sanctions talks include discussion of removing Russian banks from the SWIFT banking system. If that happens it becomes very hard for Russians to move their money in and out of Russian banks. Also, Russian accounts can be frozen in foreign banks. Don’t know if those sanctions will happen, but they could.
If you were a Russian Oligarch who made A LOT of money in “complex” business arrangements and had much of that money in overseas banks, what would you be doing right now?
We all understand the Canadian situation. It’s the honeymoon scene from the movie, “It’s a Wonderful Life.”
And Canada included cryptocurrencies in their emergency powers reach, just as there is talk of controlling cryptocurrencies in Russian sanctions.
Do you think a few very wealthy people are busy moving their cash out of banks?
Do you think a lot of moderately wealthy people are busy moving their cash out of banks?
Do you think some really clever blockchain programmers are churning out code to protect cryptocurrency assets from government reach?
If like Rubio said Putin will naturally die of old age pretty soon why provoke him with all these nato expansions, isn’t appeasing him to a point to wait out his natural years and negotiate a denuclearization with his successor a better strategy?
Why anyone would concieve to choose between Brandon and Vlad …. Interesting, what exactly is constraining Vlad? Brandon and his toadies are limited by their incompetence thank goodness. Vlad tends to kill his opposition, something still unusual for Brandon, Jan. 6, 2021 being the exception. Just my opinion.
Good heavens. Putin is only 69, and despite seeming crazy, there’s no sign of physical ill-health I have heard of. Sure, wait another twenty years and maybe he’ll die.
a RedState.com story about Vlad’s motives that Roosia tried to memory hole:
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/02/27/did-a-quickly-deleted-essay-in-russian-media-explain-what-vladimir-putin-wants-russia-to-gain-from-the-ukraine-invasion-n529150
Here’s a 2017 update on the superb propaganda music video, “Takogo Kak Putin (A Man Like Putin)”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keHQpx-_VJA
This song went viral in Russia after it came out in 2003. It’s still a party anthem.
As far as I’m concerned, one must watch this video about the video to get a sense of Putin and what he means in Russia. He can go toe-to-toe with Obama and Trump for charisma.
Takogo kak Putin!
Kate, then why provoke a dangerous man in his prime? sounds like biden wants a war to satisfy his taste for being a war time president as well as distraction from his failure on domestic policies as well as a way to destroy the stock market to stop inflation without getting the blame for destroying the economy with his green policies. climate change is a consumption problem, how does reducing production solve that? it accomplishes nothing but inflation since most consumption come from industrial/commercial use they can only lower consumption to a point without lowing production which will also cause inflation. inflation is a result of green policies. the inflation was directly caused by biden, he wanted a higher fossil fuel price to deter use while encourage transition to green energy, problem is construction vehicles don’t use green energy, it increases production cost for everything…
we are not producing oil but we are going to buy the deficit from Putin… how can you cure climate change by cutting production only if consumption is the same?
om, that Red State article includes what Putin himself said in his address to the Russian nation at the outset of the invasion. He said Ukraine and Russia are “one people” and he was restoring that proper order. It turns out that Ukrainians disagree. Even the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, has condemned the invasion.
On that last point, mainly for Rufus T. Firefly:
https://www.catholicculture.org/commentary/putin-has-alienated-ukraines-powerful-orthodox-community/
Perhaps our concern should not be Putin’s mind, but some of those closer to home.
https://johnkassnews.com/biden-options-blame-putin-and-cast-dissent-as-treasonous/
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/war-propaganda-about-ukraine-becoming
(Adding this link before reading it to get it in before the 5 minute edit deadline…)
Bob:
I did read Greenwald and don’t know what to make of his piece:
_______________________________
It is genuinely hard to overstate how overwhelming the unity and consensus in U.S. political and media circles is. It is as close to a unanimous and dissent-free discourse as anything in memory, certainly since the days following 9/11. Marco Rubio sounds exactly like Bernie Sanders, and Lindsay Graham has no even minimal divergence from Nancy Pelosi. Every word broadcast on CNN or printed in The New York Times about the conflict perfectly aligns with the CIA and Pentagon’s messaging.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/war-propaganda-about-ukraine-becoming
_______________________________
Is this true? I don’t attend all that closely to MSM reality.
Even though I was a neocon in the Iraq War days, I’m not keen on being stampeded into war with Russia.
Which is not to say I’m keen on letting Putin gobble Ukraine either, just because he has dibs as the local hegemon and has concerns about NATO.
Perhaps, Biden’s “fecklessness” has embolden Putin in such a way that Putin thought he could just waltz into the Ukraine and no one would do/say anything.
If this is the case, I do hope that Putin is a quick learner and realizes that the West isn’t just run from the White House any more.
But, on the other hand, I am also very afraid in that what if Biden does NOT do something to bring this to a quick finish? Would that embolden China to take Taiwan? Would it embolden Iran to go after Israel and others in that area of the world? What about that insane little man in North Korea – what might he do?
The US 7th Fleet did sail through the Taiwan Strait – claiming that it was just a routine move. But, I hope it clearly is sending a message to the PRC that the US and its “unofficial” ally, Taiwan – The Republic of China, still count.
On a personal note a friend of mine and his wife are from the former USSR. He is from Russia and she is from the Ukraine. They live in the US now; but, both have family back home. I called him today; but, only got his voice mail. God, I do hope their families are okay.
Ukraine War, but about the Black Sea so Off Topic.
A podcast discussion panel of naval and shipping specialists:
https://www.blogtalkradio.com/midrats/2022/02/27/episode-617-russo-ukrainian-war-black-sea-sitrep.mp3
It is also available as an Apple podcast, free, I think.
“Sunday, February 27, 2022
Russo-Ukrainian War Black Sea SITREP Panel with Berube, Cavas, & Mercogliano – on Midrats
From the Sea of Azov to the Danube Delta, the maritime component of the Russian invasion of Ukraine’s is bringing to the front universal constants; treaties, neutral shipping, amphibious operations, blockades, choke points, sea lines of communication, and an expanded environment where conflict can expand in unexpected ways.
While much of the focus has been ashore, significant developments – and lessons – can be found in the developments in the Black Sea. That will be the focus on today’s Midrats with a panel discussion with Claude Berube, Chris Cavas, and Sal Mercogliano.”
https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/
Hubert and some of the ex-navy guys may be interested.
I think Viva and Barnes offer good information that helps understand Putin’s thinking (maybe).
Unfortunately the Midrats download function is not working for some reason. Sorry.
I will try again tomorrow.
A bit OT: apropos of Biden and Science!: The Capitol Attending Physician has made masking optional for the upcoming SOTU: “Congress drops mask mandate ahead of Biden’s State of The Union speech on Tuesday.”
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1498111248411492355
Now that Congress is no longer afraid of a virus, why the “need” for a fence around the Capitol?
I hold Goldman in high regard for his original, well-thought-out pieces.
Goldman is highly intelligent and entertaining, but addicted to big ideas. Many intelligent folks are the same, and consequently often wrong. Valid big ideas are hard to come by, the world of man is messy.
Really I think it’s silly to believe anything we’re reading at this moment. I believe that Putin invaded Ukraine, and that Ukraine hasn’t surrendered yet, this much is factual, but I’m not willing to go farther than that.
“Most of the outlets are reporting on world events from Washington. The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns. That’s a sea change. They literally know nothing.”
They parrot what they are being told. There are dueling versions depending on who’s trying to get you to believe what. There’s Russian propaganda, Ukrainian propaganda, and several flavors of Western propaganda.
Incidentally I intend no moral equivalence by describing it all as propaganda. It’s a loaded word, but certainly I don’t blame Ukraine for using whatever they can for lack of much else to fight with, and I hardly expect better of Western media, and Russia of course we know.
I think the reason it’s not making sense yet is that there isn’t enough signal in common between the different flavors of noise. We’re just going to have to be patient, hard as that is, and it would not be wise to settle on a story about what happened until more facts are in, because the danger is that you’ll filter out anything that doesn’t jibe with the story you have.
My guess is that this will end suddenly and surprisingly.
From February 22, a must-read article about the Ukraine crisis by Peter Hitchens: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10540829/PETER-HITCHENS-blame-arrogant-foolish-West-Ukraine-crisis.html
Opening:
“We have been utter fools.
“We have treated Russia with amazing stupidity. Now we pay the price for that. We had the chance to make her an ally, friend and partner.
“Instead we turned her into an enemy by insulting a great and proud country with greed, unearned superiority, cynicism, contempt and mistrust.
“I have to endure, often several times a day, listening to people who are normally perfectly sensible and reasonable, raging wildly against Russia and Russians.”
From later in the article:
“It is my unflinching view, amid all the current anti-Putin hysteria, that the leaders of the West have made the crisis we now face today out of thin air.
“I also happen to think that many of them, for varying reasons, are such lightweights that they enjoy the chance to posture and threaten – and do not realise this is deadly serious.”
Hitchens is informed, in part, by having lived in Moscow for several years, including those when the USSR was canceling itself.
Hitchens’s basic idea is distilled in a quote from the legendary George F. Kennan (whom Hitchens also quotes), used in a 2014 Guardian article:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/23/project-syndicate-robert-skidelsky-kennan-revenge-russia-ukraine
“In 1996, the 92-year-old Kennan warned that NATO’s expansion into former Soviet territory was a ‘strategic blunder of potentially epic proportions.’
“These Western thrusts undoubtedly inspired Russian paranoia, reflected today in Kremlin-fuelled conspiracy theories about Ukraine.”
I think NATO should have been disbanded by 1994.
That’s a nice should have, would have, could have.
Vlad chose not to turn to the west.
Vlad chose to invade Ukraine, now everyone is living with his mistake.
Vlad may live to regret it or, maybe not.
“Britain does not have permanent allies. Britain has permanent interests.” Lord Palmerston
I refer back to a post several days ago. Putin is a Russian Nationalist first and foremost. The inept, scheming, amoral, non-strategic US Foreign Policy borg poked the Russian Bear and now he is biting. Read this article by Lee Smith which does a great job.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
or this
https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/
For all those that condemns Putin for reacting to a potential NATO expansion in Ukraine after he clearly drew a red line answer this. Should the United States allow China, Russia or France put nuclear missiles in Mexico, Canada or Cuba? If you say no, then you are engaged in sophomoric wishful thinking regarding this crisis.
The fog of war is real. The information coming out of Ukraine must be tested and vetted. The first report is often false. The soldiers on Snake Island surrendered not died to the last man. Many missile hits in Kiev may be Ukrainian misses coming back to earth. But the drive for eyeballs on 24/7 cable news makes sober analysis difficult. I have not watched any network news outside of snatches here and there and find myself better informed.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/26/the-first-casualty-of-war-is-the-truth-the-current-western-propaganda-for-ukraine-is-epic-in-scale/
Finally the media borg is not being truthful. Things are not as bad for Russia as portrayed. All the focus has been on Kiev (anglo spelling) while the real action is in the south. Also remember how long it took the US to take Iraq with a vastly more superior military. I find Wauck’s Meaning in History linking to good information.
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/about-army-group-south-larry-johnsons?utm_source=url
Due to the imbecilic policies of the US elite, there are other shoes ready to drop. Countries now know that when it comes to conventional fights the West will not come to your aid even though they egged you on. Ask Hungary in 1956, or Ukraine in 1982 (gave up their nukes for security assurances), or Georgia 2006, or Khaddaffi in 2015. For Taiwan, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and others, the only rationale answer is becoming nuclear. What serious people did to prevent in the 1950/60/70 came apart in the 1990’s starting with Clinton. This is the world we live in today. This is what our foreign policy establishment has done to us.
And we supposedly “voted” for it.
Conveniently ignored is that BHO and Hillary Clinton tried the Great Reset with Vlad and the Russians. Remember the photo of Hillary in Russia and her big red button? And of course Hillary and Bill were taking in quite a few rubles for the Skulkovo project which transferred US military research to the Russians (Dan Bongino).
Conveniently ignored that Vlad invaded Crimea in 2014 and Georgia in 2008.
Somehow the NATO pretext wasn’t flacked about back then. Because BHO was such a stout defender of Europe? No because BHO didn’t give a flying F. Funny that Vlad tends to invade other countries when weak Democrat globalist regimes and juntas are installed in the US.
But NATO, NATO, NATO.
Convenient that Vlad was quite willing for the Russia gate misinformation to be used to undermine the Trump candidacy in 216 and his subsequent presidency. But somehow for some reason Vlad stayed inside his borders from 2016 to 2020.
Vlad fan boys, erstwhile conservatives, have a quite curious memory.
Old Soviet playbook. The Russian Bear growls, everyone cowers. But this time the Bear’s logistic tail and calculation of international disapproval seem to be inadequate.
I am Spartacus:
The Canada, Mexico, nuclear missile strawman is particularly weak. Please flesh out why Canada or Mexico would allow China or Russia or France, for that matter to install nuclear weapons on their territory? Are they threatened by the US in unicorn land? And while you are at it explain why the US would be targeting Canada or Mexico with nukes. Sort of like why would you “crap up” (slang in the nuclear materials production and nuclear waste world for becoming radioactively contaminated) your own rice crispies? You know that fallout thing? I know a little about that radioactive work.
And back to that nuclear missile scenario, remember the Cuba Missile Crisis, 1961. Lots of military activity. Soviet nuclear missiles were on the Island. Castro wanted them. It was solved by diplomacy, missiles were removed. Somehow the US did not invade Cuba. About that time my father was part of the US Army unit in West Germany providing liquid oxygen for the tactical nuclear missiles. He said it was a tense time in the family when his unit was out on “maneuvers.” Being only 4 – 6 years old at the time I was unaware and happy.
Stick to elections.
om:
You have an articulate voice and something to say.
I won’t agree with everything you say, but more of this.
Much of interest. As stated, I fear the Russian reinforcements coming will be a shock for Ukrainians.
The Mayor of Kiev says that the city is surrounded (debatable-because I suspect not entirely) and there is no way out of the city (quite possibly true).
Europe is getting it’s act and aid together. But who will deliver it? Who are the truckers who will move it under hostile fire?
My fear it that this outpouring is too late- not necessary too little. Hang on.
Turkey has decided to invoke the 1936 Montreal Convention that because there is war on the Black Sea, she can close the Dardanelles Straits.
But Russia has 11 divisions of troops on the way! So, Turkey, too, will piss off Vlad?
Meanwhile, Switzerland says they will follow Europe and close Russian accounts.
Big big, stuff. And where’s Zaphod? This report of the WSJ says Hong Kong has lost 70,000 people in the last two months, 80% this month.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hong-kongers-flee-en-masse-draconian-covid-restrictions-bite
The reason? Harsh CCP anti-Covid Omicron measures including quarantine camps, and well-off people are leaving HK because of the oppression.
Finally, I’m sure Putin is steamed by lack of events going his way. But crazy? No more than Trump is or ever was crazy. It’s dumb blather. Or calculated performance “craziness.”
Anyone here want to bet this ends in a negotiated surrender?
Yet increasingly, as Ukraine defies expectations by day and then night… Vlad’s future grows dimmer.
It couldn’t happen to a sweeter guy!
And the toadies in Vlad’s regime just continue to blow up the Russian reputation in the world IMO. This time it’s the International Space station:
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2022/02/27/russian-space-chief-threatens-to-crash-international-space-station-into-u-s-or-europe-n1562282
Vlad is “slandered” as behaving like a organized crime boss with a national defense establishment to back up his demands, but this space bureaucrat, threatening to drop the space station on Europe or the US, is quite the piece of work. What a total tool.
I must say the quality of speculation, commentary, and references here is superior to much of what passes as informed punditry on the interwebz.
I have a few serious comments to drop in the mix, but first some things I picked up in a Powerline comment thread and from Not the Bee.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63c550383d9f5a4fc6d6883444930489a7926cc446ca1c4c75d8cdf15346a006.jpg?w=600&h=412
Miss Ukraine is among the civilian defenders – take that, Spengler!
https://media.notthebee.com/articles/621b8e0fa0ec4621b8e0fa0ec5.jpg
“Anastasia Lenna, Ukraine’s 2015 representative in the Miss Grand International beauty contest, has answered the call to defend her home, according to her Instagram account.”
And, as proof that the entropic tendency of the universe eventually reduces all things to parody, a note that This IS NOT The Bee.
https://notthebee.com/article/npr-wants-to-help-the-real-victims-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-its-audience
https://notthebee.com/article/msnbc-goes-full-hair-on-fire-conspiracy-theorist
Some serious sources of hard news.
Surprisingly, when NBC sticks with just the facts (I skipped their opinion pieces), their coverage is at least broad, if no more reliable than anyone else, as Frederick suggests: “I believe that Putin invaded Ukraine, and that Ukraine hasn’t surrendered yet, this much is factual, but I’m not willing to go farther than that.” (IOW, everything from everywhere is at least partly propaganda).
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia-ukraine-news
For the people who like deep details, Powerline has been featuring posts from this website in their headline picks. This is today’s entry.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27
BTW, even though it ruins a good martyr-atrocity story, I’m glad the Snake Island Thirteen were not all obliterated by the Russian warship.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/snake-island-defenders-may-still-be-alive-ukraine-says
@ PA Cat > “A bit OT: apropos of Biden and Science!: The Capitol Attending Physician has made masking optional for the upcoming SOTU: “Congress drops mask mandate ahead of Biden’s State of The Union speech on Tuesday.” LINK”
Now that we’re off-topic, Powerline addressed that by running a clip from Saturday Night Live.
Commenters remark that it is unclear if the TV show is running the New Narrative under duress, or in the usual “we have never been at war with covid” manner of the Left.
It isn’t really all that funny, but it shows what the new talking points are going to be.
Strangely, they are all the things that have gotten people banned and fired over the last 2 years.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/democrats-looking-to-bug-out-of-the-war-on-covid.php
Bonus meme from one of the PLB commenters:
https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-27-at-8.18.13-PM.png?w=1160&ssl=1
“It is genuinely hard to overstate how overwhelming the unity and consensus in U.S. political and media circles is. It is as close to a unanimous and dissent-free discourse as anything in memory, certainly since the days following 9/11.” Glen Greenwald
It has indeed been hard to find any skepticism of the Western media’s rhetoric. If experience has taught us anything, it is that when the major media outlets speak with one voice, it’s a virtual certainty that they are lying in service of an agenda.
I’m touched by all those who were sparked by my Goldman comment. I didn’t expect that.
I confess I hoped some might respond to the Putin music video.
But I didn’t realize until this day that it was Barzini, er … Putin, all along.
That music video wasn’t just a catchy music video, it was commissioned by Putin as propaganda and it worked spectacularly well. (Boy, do I feel dumb.)
So it goes into the hopper of how delusional Putin might be at this juncture.
–“Takogo Kak Putin (A Man Like Putin)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keHQpx-_VJA
Greenwald continues, “The bizarre way in which it has become completely taboo and laughable to suggest that NATO expansion to the Russian border and threats to offer Ukraine membership is deeply and genuinely threatening not just to Putin but all Russians, even though that warning has emanated for years from top U.S. officials such as Biden’s current CIA Director William Burns as well as scholars across the political spectrum, including the right-wing realist John Mearsheimer and the leftist Noam Chomsky.”
“Reading Putin’s mind.”
Hmm. No thanks.
Reading Biden’s mind.
Hmm. No need.
Seems like a two-fer.
EVIL likes company, it seems (though at least vis-a-vis the Putin, at least there’s something there to read, no matter how grim).
Meanwhile (speaking of EVIL), remind us—by how much did “Biden” “win” Arizona in 2020?…
“Arizona Senate study finds 200k ballots counted in 2020 with mismatched signatures;
“Estimate is more than eight times the number of mismatches acknowledged by the county.”—
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/maricopa-countys-200k-mail-ballots-mismatched-signatures-not-cured-2020
What!? the US stolen election is NOT related to Ukraine ye’ say (or related to any of the other disasters “Biden” has thus far “succeeded” in foisting upon the country “he” “leads”—with more crises and disasters coming down the pike…always room for one more, right?)??
Very much beg to differ….
Gosh! It’s almost, almost as though “Biden” has declared war on America…marching through the country leaving carnage in his disastrous wake (of the “fundamental transformation” variety, to be sure)….
Which brings us to the “State of the Union” coming up. “Biden” is ABSOLUTELY RIGHT that “he” MUST drool his upcoming speech from behind reinforced walls, legions of physical protectors and razor wire.
Can’t fault “him” for that…
“HE” is well aware of what “he” has done and what “he plans to do.
And will brook NO opposition.
(Kind of like his Russian counterpart…)
@ huxley (and Bob) in re Greenwald’s post, which I recommend highly —
I don’t think it’s essential whether or not Rubio, Sanders, Pelosi, and Graham have been spouting exactly the same rhetoric (I haven’t checked); rather, it is more important to look at the full import of his argument:
that people who have not lived through a period of intense war propaganda don’t have any defenses against it (many of today’s voters); and the people pushing military action are in many instances the same cast of characters who pushed the Iraq war – and they know exactly what they are doing; and, despite the lessons of Russiagate and the Covidiocy, polls show people are believing them.
We are entering a phase of mass Gell-Mann Amnesia.
I don’t know that there is much we can do to counter the hysteria.
I have no clue what Putin and Zelenskyy will do from here; less about Biden Inc., and no predictions for Europe or the rest of the world, other than it’s going to be messy.
However, I will venture that, looking at the mad scrambling to catch up to the defense positions that the EU neglected for decades, content to sit under the American umbrella while insulting us at the same time, I think they are (as one might say in the Bible Belt) “getting religion” a day late and a missile short.
Barry’s link encapsulated a lot of other stories I’ve seen today, so I will repeat it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-president-agrees-hold-talks-without-preconditions-russia-belarus-border
The talks form only one portion of the post; most of it is described by the Headline “EU Provides $500 Million To Buy Arms For Ukraine; Turkey Readies Closure Of Straits To Russian Navy.”
The logistics of getting any of those weapons to Ukraine in time to do any good are probably a bit shy of impossible, and most stories also dodge the question of whether or not the Ukrainian armed forces even know how to use them.
Greenwald is both right and wrong at the same time.
(A most versatile fellow is he!)
That is,—with apologies to King Solomon:
TRUE,
“There is a time to be extremely skeptical about war reports”—in fact, most of the time—before shifting into that knee-jerk response that war reportage is precisely intended to provoke;
AND (BUT?),
“A time to pick your head up and look around at what’s going on” (in fact, all the time, though with the expected occasional lapses—we are, after all, human, or most of us…).
Short version:
One can realize that there is a lot of propaganda AND ALSO UNDERSTAND that Putin must, somehow, be stopped and sent packing back to Moscow where, one hopes, he will be dealt with by the “powers that be” (including the Metropolitan of the Russian Orthodox Church, perhaps?)
This shouldn’t have to be rocket science.
(Speaking of “being stopped”, “Biden”, too, must be stopped from destroying the country. Two peas in a pod.)
But there is some good news amongst all this dreadfulness!
‘Psaki Claims Biden “Didn’t Mean It” When He Said “No One Expected Sanctions To Prevent Anything”‘—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/psaki-claims-biden-didnt-mean-it-when-he-said-no-one-expected-sanctions-prevent-anything
What a relief!! (I know I was getting terribly worried…)
@ om in re RedState & the Memory Holed Story.
The post is by streiff, who has been a reliable analyst IMO, and this is what he thinks about the missing essay (which celebrated a Russian victory before it happened – kind of a Dewey-Truman parallel).
Streiff says:
That’s pretty much what I have been thinking as well (always glad to see someone with a microphone agrees with me!) – maybe Putin was reading Spengler?
My feeling from some of the news stories is that Zelenskyy’s decision to return to Ukraine from his meeting in Germany may not have been part of the timetable streiff posits. After Biden got done laying down as much hype as he did on the looming threat, once the Ukrainian president was safely in Germany, who among the desk warriors would have gone home, as he did? Without him in the country, and being as aggressively macho as he has been, the rest of the dominoes would have fallen pretty much as described.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-ukraines-zelenskyy-russia
So did Putin, his optimistic plan A having been blown out of the water, move on to some previously outlined plan B, or is he actually winging it now?
And along the same lines, I wonder if his original plan was just to take the two disaffected “republics” on the southeast border, and let it go at that – which would have occasioned some grumbles, but no action, as former precedent has shown – but the open invitation from Biden was too enticing to pass up. (That’s not original to me; but I don’t have a citation to anyone on the internet; it’s kind of a gestalt of various opinionators.)
I also would not be surprised if the hardening response from Europe is unexpected as well, as no country was making serious moves to support Ukraine, as opposed to rhetorical promises. If Kyiv had fallen on schedule (whether plan A, B, or whatever), they would be shrugging their symbolic shoulders and asking when the new pipeline would be totally operational.
When all of the parties to a conflict are making decisions on the fly, rather than according to a well-prepped suite of options, we get into the Twilight Zone of Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo.
Not a good place to be.
@ Barry > “‘Psaki: Biden Wants To Rely On Foreign Energy So U.S. Can “Look At” Green Alternatives’—”
The conclusion to that post jumped out at me as being characteristic of the actions of the Biden Administration, regardless of who is actually running the show:
Sounds like Afghanistan, and now Ukraine.
Magnus: “What seems truly bizarre to me is that the nations of Europe and the United States did not put in place very early on very severe sanctions.”
In fact, jumping straight from step 1 to step 10 without passing through the rest of the program seems to be a Democrat habit, although Republicans are not immune.
“Sounds like Afghanistan….”
“Biden” does seem to have a peculiar talent for making things worse than they absolutely have to be.
Creating all kinds of crises out of thin air.
(A talent for creative destruction? Fomenting chaos? Unleashing the furies?)
See, cuz NOW “he” can blame Putin/Ukraine for the hyper-inflation that “he”‘s been so carefully nurturing.
And blame Putin/Ukraine as well for the ensuing(!) oil crisis, likewise carefully nurtured—Whadayaknow!—Obama said as much several days ago.
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/obama-warns-economic-consequences-americans-biden-sanctions-russia
Did I say, “talent”?
Actually, make that “GENIUS”!
…Which might raise more than a bit of a whiff of “intention”—even “collusion” (ah yes, that magic word/tactic by which we’ll “catch the conscience”, soul—and rump—of…TRUMP.)
And a reminder:
“Massive Anti-War Protests Break Out In Moscow And St Petersburg For Fourth Day In A Row”—
https://blazingcatfur.ca/2022/02/27/massive-anti-war-protests-break-out-in-moscow-and-st-petersburg-for-fourth-day-in-a-row/
(The “home of the brave” seems to have “transitioned”….)
@ I am Spartacus – first, it’s always good to hear from you, and I hope your election work is going well.
Also, it’s always good to check in at the Treehouse, and I found it very interesting that Sundance and Greenwald are working from the same playbook about propaganda and not trusting everything we read until it can (somehow) be verified.
Wait three days like Neo usually advises, though, and this war may be over!
One other interesting thing – commenter NoQuarter2022 at CTH said this:
That comparison, which you also made, has shown up in a lot of comment threads I read (also at Powerline, for instance), and I wondered if there was an original published source for it, or if it was just been a spontaneous thought for a lot of people.
However, in the FAIR post you linked, I found what might be the genesis:
I don’t know anything about the FAIR website, and am going to follow Sundance’s advice to be skeptical of everyone, so that’s all I wanted to point out.
Lee Smith’s post is also worth pondering; he’s been excellent on Russiagate and other topics.
Eastern Europe, not just Russia, is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+riddle%2c+wrapped+in+a+mystery%2c+inside+an+enigma
You said: “Countries now know that when it comes to conventional fights the West will not come to your aid even though they egged you on.”
They should have learned that a long time ago.
America’s promises are only good for the tenure of the President who made them, if that long when the Congress (and the Deep State) is feuding with him.
This isn’t really an open thread, but here’s another riddle, although maybe not with the mystery and conundrum.
Is Gabbard changing parties, or just looking for a temporary platform?
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/democrat-tulsi-gabbard-electrifies-cpac-withering-attack-biden-era-cancel-culture
She comes down heavy on Democrats, elites in general, and the media, but dings the Republican establishment as well.
“Reading Putin’s Mind”…
Victor Davis Hanson gives it a stab:
“The Crowded Road to Kyiv”
https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/27/the-crowded-road-to-kyiv/
H/T Instapundit.
– – – – – – – – –
Re Tulsi Gabbard, she has certainly been a tremendous and awe-inspiring surprise.
Fearlessly outspoken, and—shockingly, given past emanations—eminently sensible (most of the time, of late).
A “changer”? Or maybe she just woke up one day and smelled the Kona…with regard to her party and its diabolical intentions….
(Perhaps it was her dynamite debate with Kamala Harris that was the trigger?)
Whatever, when you compare her to most of her “fellow” Democrats AND to Never-Trumpers, she comes out looking…Presidential.
Gabbard musings (continued)…
…or maybe all it takes to COME INTO ONE’S OWN is being accused by Hillary Clinton of being a “Russian Agent”(TM)….
Just background, because it’s several months old, here’s a podcast featuring a Russian emigre who has worked for our DIA. She says our intelligence/diplomatic establishment still doesn’t get the Russians, Putin in particular.
She offers a complaint that has been offered about Foreign Service officers and others for > 60 years: they lack language skills. That’s a reasonable point. She offers another complaint about intelligence agencies that has been offered by Reuel Marc Gerecht about the CIA, and that is that recruitment and promotion are regulated by norms set for bureaucratic convenience rather than building an agency which does its supposed job. Gerecht’s complaint was that agents are promoted according to the number of ‘sources’ they develop without regard to whether or not the sources provide any useful information. She also makes a reference to ‘bean counters’, but her specific complaint is that their recruitment protocol relies heavily on background investigations which systematically exclude people who have traveled or lived abroad, so they get people without language skills.
Note, the United States is notably more affluent than all but a few occidental countries. We excel at assembling productive private enterprise. However, about 14% of our working population is to be found in the public sector, and we just do not build effective public agencies. (John Derbyshire has said that having resided in the English midlands, London, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and greater New York, he’d have to say that New York has the worst public employees he’s encountered to date).
Back to Keystone. Back to Fracking. Down with the Green New Deal. Down with Kerry, Grampa Biden and Little Red Lying Hood.
Why are we buying oil from OPEC and Vlad?
Zelensky has cojones – anybody in the US govt comparable?
DeSantis 2024.
Agree that we don’t really know what’s happening in Ukraine.
But I also think NATO has been a paper tiger for a long time. Is the US truly willing to go to war in Europe these days? I hope not. It’s up to the Europeans to defend themselves, and they seem to be realizing that belatedly. They lived for 46 years with an aggressive Russian-backed nuclear-armed coalition on their borders. They don’t want it back, and in particular many of the satellite states don’t want to go back under Russian control.
With the decline in our military ongoing, whether we could fight a war is an open question.
Om. the supposed analogy–what would we do if somebody put nukes on our borders?–fails, as does the argument against it.
It’s not what we would do. It’s what would the Russians do, and think.
Massive armies do not invade the US. See Napoleon, Tannenberg and Brest-litovsk, Hitler. And that’s just from the west.
The horror of the Eastern Front n the Great Patriotic War is not forgotten although there can be few living veterans.
When religion was under a serious cloud in the USSR, a wedding ceremony would frequently involve laying flowers on the nearest memorial to the dead of the GPW. If you need something to sanctify your wedding and the supply of willing priests is pretty thin…what’s next best?
They had a national tank day.
But, today, since you don’t need IRBM (Thor, etc.) to nuke people, placing the birds close to a border is kind of dumb. It’s like the Davy Crockett; the Reds would have overrun the batteries before the troops finished breakfast.
The point is conventional ground forces and history looking over their shoulder. I don’t think NATO as conceived (Needs Americans To Operate) was a bad idea. It gave Europe its longest period of peace since the Battle of Tollense.
But the question, to keep things on the mellow, is what to do when Russia gets antsy–under Putin.
So let’s ask the “what would you do?” with the outraged expression Phil Donahue patented. What would you do if a powerful country started pushing on the borders of your own country and those of your neighbors?
Putin can stay home and nobody would worry. He can start getting pushy and…the question of what would the US allow in our neighbors’ territory is irrelevant.
That he’s using the Green Movement as a cut-out makes it even funnier.
On what’s actually happening, it seems we are not seeing a stream of press releases from the Russians on the heroic advances of their forces, which may be an indication that even Plan B is not going as hoped. But it will take a while for all that promised military aid to reach Ukraine.
Whatever the fog of war is presenting or hiding, I think one thing is clear – the Ukrainians are winning the propaganda war.
This video;
Ukraine President on the streets of Kiev
shows leadership!
P.S. I don’t speak Russian/Ukrainian; but, I think the word “toot” must mean “HERE” as he emphasizes it so much! Very powerful!
WSJ coverage today: Russians standing in line to withdraw money from banks, especially from US dollar accounts. Russian stock market will not open today. European suppliers suspending parts deliveries to Russian customers.
Never ascribe to insanity what could be attributed to stupidity and willful evil.
Reading the CDC’s mind….
Don’t even bother.
But they sure have been giving Brother Vlad and Comrade Xi stiff competition in the “Utter-Lack-of-Scruples” competition, at the Abominability Olympics (as befits an elite club of what are essentially Democratic Party apparatchiks).
N.B. Coupla’ trigger warnings ahead:
TW 1) INDESCRIBABLE EVIL.
TW 2) If you’re basically OK with INDESCRIBABLE EVIL, but don’t really enjoy doubting government institutions then—WARNING!—YOU’RE NOT FREAKIN’ GOING TO BELIEVE THIS. (On the other hand, maybe you will….):
“CDC Scientists Admit They Did Manipulate Study Data To Show the C0V-19 Vaxxines Are Safe for Pregnant Women As Researchers Discover 91% of Pregnancies Resulted in Miscarriage Following C0V-19 Vaxxination”—
https://blazingcatfur.ca/2022/02/28/cdc-scientists-admit-they-did-manipulate-study-data-to-show-the-c0v-19-vaxxines-are-safe-for-pregnant-women/
Lawyers sure gonna be busy.
The CDC buried and manipulated evidence? You shock me, Barry Meislin. But if this is true, indescribably evil is the right phrase.
Which powerful country invaded its neighbors in the past and in the last month? It wasn’t an alliance known for a marked resemblence to a herd of cats. The great threat to Russia posed by NATO has been noted by many others, a threat to Russian expansionism extracted on the weakest.
Lets line up to beat Vlad’s dead pony?
Who more than Vlad benefits if the current Ukrainian government is exterminated? Bragging baggage Brandon.
Exterminated, because that’s what Vlad will do, it’s an existential thing.
Work calls, 10 hours of obligations to meet and miles to go before I sleep (HT Robert Frost).
Barry: excellent summary by VDH. Powerline also links to this characteristically prescient piece by the late Angelo Codevilla:
https://lawliberty.org/cracking-putins-code/
It’s useful to be reminded of Obama’s part in setting the stage for what we are seeing today.
Thanks much for the Codevilla link.
Powerful intellect, possibly on the level of Kennan (even if he has Kennan’s “shoulders to stand on”)…
Names the problem. Describes the problem. Offers possible solutions—including what to do and equally important, what not to do.
Written in 2014. Unfortunately, equally valid today.
Barry Meislin said, “Reading the CDC’s mind….
Don’t even bother.”
More on the CDC’s lack of scruples about the adverse effects of the EUA “vaccines,” this time about myocarditis in young men– from Legal Insurrection:
CDC Quietly Revises Booster Recommendations for Young Men
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been very busy recently revising recommendations. The agency recently amended its mask guidelines, now allowing communities to take in to account the level of hospitalizations in an areas rather than just relying on case counts. Now it is recommending that younger males should consider waiting longer between doses of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines to reduce a rare risk of heart inflammation. . . .
More at the link, including the fact that Sen. Ron Johnson is asking the SECDEF why cases of myocarditis among military personnel have been removed from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/02/cdc-quietly-revises-booster-recommendations-for-young-men/
Indeed, the “young man” issue issue should have popped up immediately as well as the “teenager” issue and, of course, the “children” issue. Utter, utter madness. (But “ivermectin is a horse dewormer” and “HCQ is a toxic aquarium tank cleaner”…and DON’T mention Quercetin…)
Clearly, the CDC, FDA, NIH, Fauci, “Biden”, all of them have gone rogue. Insane. The killers among us…
(But let’s talk about Putin…)
As for the Military, hey, what’s another coverup? Besides, all that information is no doubt “top secret”. And don’t forget, a “Biden” goal is to weaken the military—Just Say “NO” to War, etc. (unless it’s war on Deplorables)—just as “Biden” has waged war on domestic oil/gas production; just as “he” has waged war on the southern border. And the economy. Though to be fair, he’s running a war FOR fentanyl.
And so another “win-win” for “Biden” unless the news somehow gets out (is leaked, is hacked, is stolen).
On the other hand you can’t keep scads of immobilized or dead soldiers a secret for too long. Though let’s hope (against hope) that THAT won’t happen.
Vlad fan boys, erstwhile conservatives, have a quite curious memory.
That is an odd comment. I wonder what you mean? Those who think NATO was pushed too far and who agree with Peter Hitchens are “fanboys?”
Mike K:
There is a lot of rationalization and justification for Vlad being forced to to this, that, or the other and the convenient target is not Vlad but NATO.
Vlad has been misbehaving (just another minor incursion, oops) for at least 14 years. And now some propose that all along the problem has been NATO?
om, did you read the Peter Hitchens article? I think he had a valid point. Maybe its age but I remember mistakes we made going back a long way.
Re the mrna vax in pregnancy report: here is the actual paper:
https://cf5e727d-d02d-4d71-89ff-9fe2d3ad957f.filesusr.com/ugd/adf864_ed413dccc2b5463dae23025690855524.pdf
…which was withdrawn:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300456441/covid19-vaccination-paper-criticised-as-disinformation-is-being-withdrawn-coauthor-simon-thornley-says
There was indeed a serious statistical error in the original study, which the paper critiqued…not clear to me, though, on a quick reading, what is wrong with the 82% number…although the 92% number indeed seems meaningless. I do question the p-values, given a sample size of 104.
Codevilla was brilliant. Such a loss.
Serious economic sanctions against the Putin regime would include a full-court press against its mainstays: the network of self-interested oligarchs who are Putin’s only real constituents.
I think Dr. Codevilla made a bad call with this remark. The Russian public has long been content with Putin, whose policy decisions have sufficed to permit grand improvements on a host of economic and social metrics.
The problem is something passably concealed for 20 years: Putin’s dispositions are imperialist / revanchist.
There’s an analogue to 1939 in our current situation. Among all the occidental countries during the period running from 1933 to 1939, Germany’s economy was the most dynamic and it had fully recovered from the Depression by the beginning of the latter year. It had successfully stiffed the Allied powers of their treaty reparations, abrogated de facto Versailles provisions limiting their military expenditure and recruitment, buffalo’d Britain into acceding to same, and acquired every piece of Germanophone territory in Europe it was practical to acquire and hold except for the Trentino borderland, Danzig, and Memelland. (These last three had in sum a population of about 600,000; Danzig was a de facto dependency of Germany after 1935, Memelland was seized without incident in March 1939, and acquiring the Trentino borderland required an agreement with Italy, not Britain or France). Over 70% of Weimar Germany’s Jewish population had emigrated by 1939; if he’d sat on his hands, it’s reasonable inference that the remainder would have departed in a few years.
He didn’t sit on his hands, and you could tell that in March 1939 when he seized the Czech portion of Bohemia and Moravia and set up a client state in Slovakia. He actually believed all that hooey about lebensraum and the criminality of the Jews. The rest you know.
Putin is an abnormally accomplished ruler. The trouble is that the accomplishment he has to date are not what he ultimately wants.
“One question I’d like answered is whether Putin has really gone off the deep end or whether he’s just being threatening as a negotiating tactic.”
he has not gone off the deep end..
this is clear calculation… IF you changed a bit of your values and priorities and its pretty easy to see this was a very easy thing to predict…
why not go back and read what i wrote when they grabbed the crimea..
has to do with weakness…
ie… each time oil has gone up over 100 recently
putin has attacked something.. (ie, when he has cash, he uses it)
high oil prices funds these excursions… which do not affect him
how it affects the prols that he has is not relevant any more than you worry about rocks in your garden when you affect them… ie. rocks are material… this is the real materialism (communism)…
the prize in the future is the world itself..
and by failure of another to claim it, the universe…
Scott on February 27, 2022 at 5:16 pm said:
the guy is a deeply delusional, loose-screw megalomaniac
the truth is that if either you or I decided to take over the world, that would be the description of us
however, IF you are in a position to actually take over the world or actually make steps towards it, and get away with it
then its just one thing you can decide to do or not do… crazy is not needed…
you and i can lift a bottle of milk…
if everyone declares doing so is delusional and so on, doesnt make it so
in fact, maybe THEY are deluded as to whether lifting milk IF YOUR ABLE TO is delusional or a choice
artfldgr:
Good to hear from you!
Mike K:
I have not had time to read Hitchen’s article and won’t have time to do it for at least 6 hours. So I can’t say anything of substance, if you can abstract his points that would help.
Captain Obvious speaking here, NATO has problems; herd of cats, slow to act, some members free riding or slacking, some members not really aligned with the West at present (Turkey).
But Vlad is another kind of particular problem for the West, not just for NATO members IMO.
Artfldgr:
I agree – and have written – that weakness on the part of western Europe and the US have caused him to strike at this point. And I believe he has huge ambitions to take over the old USSR territory and be a super superpower.
What give me pause about his mental state is just that I was surprised he’s not being more incremental for now about what he’s doing. If he had concentrated on taking the eastern parts of Ukraine for now, I think western Europe and the US would have basically let him do it without much of a fight. The scope of his attack is what I don’t get.
I have not had time to read Hitchen’s article and won’t have time to do it for at least 6 hours. So I can’t say anything of substance, if you can abstract his points that would help.
He was living in Moscow when the USSR collapsed. He watched the oligarchs, aided by the US (Jeffrey Sachs) loot the Russian economy. He also added that Clinton kept pushing NATO closer and closer although many wanted to enroll Russia as a friend and ally. If Russia was a friend and ally, why was NATO moving closer? It fed the paranoia and that was well before Putin. There is much that is worth reading.
Russia’s real enemy is China and I would not be surprised, if Putin loses this, to see China turn toward Siberia.
@neo: If he had concentrated on taking the eastern parts of Ukraine for now, I think western Europe and the US would have basically let him do it without much of a fight. The scope of his attack is what I don’t get.
I think it’s because settling for the eastern parts of Ukraine, the Russian parts, means he has to forgo the western part with far fewer Russians. A smaller Ukraine without so many Russians in it is much less likely to do his bidding than a larger Ukraine with a lot of Russians in it, and it’s much less reasonable for the world to go along with taking it over down the road.
I think he thinks he gets one chance to do this, and the only question was the timing… I think he figured that in the West he is not dealing with serious or rational people and that they won’t do anything substantive to help Ukraine and that if it was all over in a few days the West would accept it, especially if China was willing to make some ambiguous moves at roughly the same time. And he could make up the loss of ground over the last twenty years in the balance of power relative to NATO. (Let me hesitate to assure the Tailgunner Joes in the comments that Putin is utterly wrong to think NATO expansion could possibly be bad for Russia.)
If the reports are true that he’s bitten off more than he can chew, then we’re going to have a different problem of what replaces him, will it be worse than what we’ve got now. Lesser of evils is frequently the best we can hope for in a fallen world and determining which evil is lesser is not trivial (cf. Stalin vs Hitler).
Frederick:
It’s just that till now he’s been patient and methodical, taking a little bit here and a little bit there. I also agree, though, that he might think this is the moment and there never will be a better one.
Mike K: “Russia’s real enemy is China and I would not be surprised, if Putin loses this, to see China turn toward Siberia.”
Nor would I. There’s history there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
Happened in 1969, but long memories in that part of the world. As we have seen.
The possibility of a border war in the Russian Far East recalls another disturbing parallel with the late 1930s. The Red Army and the Japanese Kwantung Army were fighting a war in Mongolia in the summer of 1939, just as things were heating up in Europe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol
The Russians won that one. Not sure they’d win against China today, but you never know. IIRC, Field Marshall Bernard Law Montgomery said that there were only two rules in warfare:
Rule #1. Never invade Russia
Rule #2. Never invade China
I wrote this on the January 14 open thread on this forum:
“That said, I think we’re in for some very bad times. 1930s bad.”
I was thinking in part of what we’re seeing today. Wish I’d been wrong.
Field Marshall Bernard Law Montgomery said that there were only two rules in warfare:
Rule #1. Never invade Russia
Rule #2. Never invade China
Unless you’re the Mongols, who were successful at both…
China’s been conquered by foreigners plenty of times and is well aware that it can be done.
Okay Frederick, who is in the wings or on deck to replace Vlad, The Restorer? The devil we have is quite enough, and I don’t know if there are open source analysts posting on which oligarch/mobster Vlad is most worried about?
Is it Freddy Kreugerprov, Dimitri Chucki, Anatoly Killyourpuppy?
Most recently the Chinese were conquered by a ruthless corrupt ideaology that came from Europe, Marxism/Leninism. They chose poorly.
I also agree, though, that he might think this is the moment and there never will be a better one.
What could be a better time than now when the US has surrendered energy independence over a lunatic climate hoax? Also Germany, under the same climate hoax, has decided to close nuclear plants and coal power plants.
I also disagree about NATO not looking like a threat but his timing has to be based on Biden and Germany. The gap between 2014 and 2022 is not an illusion.
Whatever Putin’s strategic motivations in Ukraine, there can be no doubt that the advent of SloJoe and a ruling party fixated on climate crapola provides a brief once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to go for it!
Okay Frederick, who is in the wings or on deck to replace Vlad, The Restorer?
Why would it be someone you’ve heard of as opposed to an obscure colonel or even a corporal–or (if it goes really badly) someone not even Russian? That’s what’s so interesting about upsetting the balance of power, all the stuff that had a lid on it getting out. And it’s why the world’s great powers have typically been reluctant to fiddle with it once established. Of course in our day we know so much better…
There’s a reason why Russia was allowed to inherit the Soviet Union’s Security Council seat, and why China was allowed to inherit Taiwan’s, and why the Soviet Union was ever allowed to have it in the first place. It’s not because anyone thought they were the good guys.
Mobsters and Mafia power struggles are more likely IMO, but I haven’t followed Oleg Derisphaska (sic?) or the other oligarchs.
Is there a DuckDuckGo search for “Russian oligarch” or gambling website “Who will succeeded Putin? What’s your bracket?”
The Russians are now using cluster bombs on Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, a city whose inhabitants are majority Russian.
Because NATO folk were willing to give away E. UKR, Vlad expected acceptance of fast surrender. Vlad believed his own false history, and slanders against the Zelensky gov’t, expecting him to run away faster than Biden in Afghanistan. Probably all his bootlicking advisors totally and, with expertise Fauci would envy, assured Vlad of rapid, total victory.
My guess is that he goes to talks and gets a lot of what he wants except no regime change, and is stuck with Ukrainians are not Russians,
More than 30k refugees already in Slovakia, 200k+ in Poland. My wife’s god daughter should cross the border tomorrow. We’re on a week of ski holidays, sons off from school, but following charity work closely.
Buy shares of nuclear power supply companies.
a city whose inhabitants are majority Russian.
I think you mean majority Russophone. The only parts of the country where self-declared Great Russians have been a majority are the Crimea and some border municipalities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Art Deco:
By the way, I think it’s interesting that Zelenskyy’s first native language is Russian (although he also speaks Ukrainian) and I have read he was born somewhere in the Donetsk and Luhansk region.
OK, here goes…
If a richer Putin is, as has been observed above, encouraged and emboldened,
then might it be suggested that “Biden”—by systematically enriching Putin and weakening America—facilitating this particular “fundamental transformation” (Eastern Europe Edition)?
Let’s see:
– Supporting Nord Stream 2.
– Leaving Ukraine essentially stranded, in the case hostilities break out, with a dangling offer to join NATO but no firm commitment to its defense (in fact the opposite: declaring it will NOT defend Ukraine militarily).
– Offering to evacuate the Ukrainian president from the country (using the “altruistic” excuse of “saving” the guy (to fight another day?), but in effect removing the country’s leadership during wartime, thus making it harder psychologically for Ukrainians to resist? Reducing morale? Giving away the game early on?)
– Methodically weakening (or should that be, “stripping away”) America’s energy independence (under the guise, it must be said, of fighting AGW—clever ruse for those eager to fall for that sort of thing, BTW).
– And with regard to America, methodically keeping it in lockdown mode for as long as possible, IOW, destroying economies, destroying families, keeping the fear quotient as high as possible, sabotaging the education system; and then, doing its best to elevate inflation, erasing the southern border (and as a result allowing fentanyl to flow into the country in record amounts), decimating the military and America’s reputation as a reliable ally, declaring war on half the country, tribalizing society, encouraging crime to run rampant, weakening law enforcement, increasing contempt for rule of law, showing signs of greater authoritarianism, radicalizing government, perverting the DOJ and other government agencies, constantly lying, etc…. (even as a complicit media covers up as much as they can of this entire mess by lies of commission or omission, misdirection, redirection, concealment and deception).
In short, hog-tying and weakening the country beyond all recognition and any possibility of recovery.
Why?
None of this makes sense, of course. That is, it is entirely counter-intuitive and smacks of the “C” word (“conspiracy”).
On the other hand, NOTHING that the “Biden” administration has been doing, planning, attempting, enacting, declaring, promising, has made any sense IF one is looking at it from the POV of the America’s self interest…such that it is IMPOSSIBLE to even remotely believe that this administration and the larger Democratic party is trying to promote the country’s, and it’s people’s, good. In any sphere.
So how might one MAKE IT APPEAR as though he supports another country’s existence against an enemy aggressor, that he is doing everything he can to help that country defend itself…when IN FACT, HIS POLICY GOAL IS TO BETRAY that country (or group of countries)?
What might he do that’s different than “Biden” is doing here?
(The answer to that question becomes much easier once one realizes how utterly dishonest “Biden” is; once one understands that an administration bent on severely weakening its own country CANNOT be trusted to defend its—purported—allies.)
Perhaps. (But remember, um, Afghanistan? Or has that already been forgotten, as “Biden” might have wishes. Granted Afghanistan was not exactly an ally in the classical sense, but still, a grand betrayal was involved buttressed by non-stop lying.)
One might in fact be interested in how the European members of NATO (including the UK, of course) are ASSESSING all this—surely they must have noticed that something’s out of kilter with America and its current “leadership”—and what their leaders and military echelons might be saying to one another…. We already know that Germany has responded by doing what it has not done for decades (although there are historical reasons for that, no doubt): step up and pay its dues, as it also sends materiel and other forms of support to Ukraine.
And not just Germany….
In any event, if one is aghast at the “fundamental transformation” that has beset the US (and Canada—since Trudeau, having fully exposed himself, may essentially be considered a branch of “Biden”—“Biden”‘s “Northern Branch”?), then such a suggestion as the above (which of course one must surely hope is entirely wrong, ridiculous, absurd, nuts, etc.) may be even more “troubling”.
Which brings us to Taiwan and Israel (and let’s throw in Saudi Arabia …and the Emirates, too): Is there any reason for them to worry about “Biden”?
Europe is sending a few weapons (how?) and people are staging “peace rallies” nobody cares about. Ukraine is going to fall and in a few weeks the need for Russian gas will prevail and Europe will be happy to continue with its real priority: gender-fluid policies. \rant
Meanwhile in Europe:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3807122-eu-commission-to-propose-windfall-tax-on-big-oil-proceeds-to-fund-renewables
That’s what Putin is banking on. It’s still winter, and if there’s no gas, what will Europe do?
@kate:It’s still winter, and if there’s no gas, what will Europe do?
They’ll pay more for other sources of energy. Somehow they made it through winter for many years before natural gas was thought of as a source of heat or Russia built a pipeline. It will be expensive and inconvenient but they can manage.
@ Barry > “OK, here goes…”
You and I are on the same page, I think, but you added a few more paragraphs than I got written last last night.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/02/27/reading-putins-mind/#comment-2610073
It would sure be interesting if we could figure out exactly who is handling “Biden” – for various reasons already hashed out, I don’t think it’s Obama, but rather that he was also being used as a front, more to the benefit of Iran than to Russia; however, his comment about having more flexibility after re-election still sticks in my craw.
You could pull some of the events from his tenure into your framework without a great deal of difficulty.
My question: what’s the overlap between Handler Set O and Handler Set B?
I’m thinking it’s nearly 100% with some outliers on either side.
@ Frederick @neo: “If he had concentrated on taking the eastern parts of Ukraine for now, I think western Europe and the US would have basically let him do it without much of a fight. The scope of his attack is what I don’t get.”
* * *
That is pretty much what Codevilla suggested in 2014, and his reasoning looked sound to me, if you consider that Putin is highly likely to have made the same connections.
By way of background: Codevilla’s article is dated March 9, 2014, in the middle of Putin’s annexation of Crimea, which began on February 23 and was completed by March 18.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation
(Reposting the link for convenience, and I’m going to defer one of the earlier paragraphs to my next comment for discussion on a different facet.)
https://lawliberty.org/cracking-putins-code/
The seizure of Crimea, or, more importantly, the consequences that did NOT follow from that seizure, are what emboldened him to move against Ukraine now (after the Democrats were back in power). That’s pretty much the universal consensus, so far as I can tell.
Frederick basically restated that conclusion, and I doubt if it was unique to Codevilla.
Well, no one took that option (corrupt oligarchs aren’t noted for far-sighted statesmanship), so here we are with Putin now engaged in attempting to attain his long-pondered objective (although, as I noted earlier, I really don’t think he meant to do it this month).
Carpe diem.
There’s already a Wiki post for the War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
When you look at the map in that article, the annexation of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, two self-proclaimed states controlled by pro-Russian forces in the Donbas, was easily achievable without much hassle in today’s context, again a consensus, but would not IMO constitute the “Eastern Ukraine” that Codevilla was talking about.
The generally accepted regions for Eastern Ukraine are on a map in this article. Some of the names are familiar from the current hostilities, and it puts them in context.
There is also a good map of ethnicity by oblast (or province, roughly equal to a US county).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Ukraine
Another data set on Russian-ethnics in Ukraine provinces.
The proportion is very high in the Crimea and other “break-away” regions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine#Number_of_Russians_by_region_(Oblast)_per_the_last_systematic_census_in_2001
Tom Grey,
Wishing good luck and safe passage to your wife’s goddaughter!
Codevilla continued, March 2014 – the annexation of Crimea would probably not lead to further hostilities at that time (and except for the Donbas instability, it did not):
Why did today, 6 years later, look like the day for Putin to go for the brass ring?
(Ukraine isn’t quite the One Ring.)
Lots of the likely reasons have been discussed; many or most may be true — it’s possible to have more than one reason to do something, especially a BIG something like making war on another sovereign country in the middle of a continent full of other countries that really don’t like you.
I doubt if he will ever write a tell-all memoir that gives us his list, but someone in his circle might make a case, at least for whatever Putin may have told them.
Clearly, he believed that Russia’s forces were no longer too small and too unreliable (if they ever were; Codevilla was a genius, but didn’t have a crystal ball).
Note that some of his troops may be less reliable than others, if the news stories (aka propaganda releases) are true.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-016cc6cbc65ae95286d825a4ebebd1c5
We don’t need to rehearse all the international reasons why Putin may have thrown the dice this time around, thinking that there would be few unmanageable repercussions from the US and Europe – although he seems to have gotten that wrong, which surprised more than just him.
What about Putin’s supposed fear of the highly probable insurgency / counter-insurgency (depending on what end of the telescope you’re looking through)?
I haven’t seen much discussion of that by the punditry. Maybe someone else has.
What I have seen is a lot of resistance from the Ukrainians, and their undeniably heroic President – some things are probably being hyped, but he DID return and he DID encourage his people and they ARE fighting back, allegedly better than any of the vaunted Foreign Affairs elites expected.
(h/t Charles, but there are plenty more examples on the internet)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0En27IsHaL0
So: is Russia going to have another Chechnya and Afghanistan; how much will this war (successful or not) endanger Putin’s regime at home (there are always protests, even in Russia, but do these have any teeth?); and is anyone rash enough to bet which way the dominoes will fall?
Frederick had a good, though somewhat Delphic, answer:
“My guess is that this will end suddenly and surprisingly.’
Despite the overall leftist slant at Wikipedia, their article has a lost of essential information and AFAICT a minimum of partisan slant.
Noticeably missing are the public utterances of the current resident of the White House.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Included is a nifty animated map of the daily progress of the Russian forces through the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:2022_Russian_Invasion_of_Ukraine_animated.gif
There’s nothing like watching a modern war in real-time on your personal media devices.
Hard to believe it’s been a whole week since the real kinetic military action started – shielded by lies from Putin, of course.
Just to remind us all, this Eastern European fiasco had its most recent proximate cause under Obama.
https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Kinetic_military_action
@ Neo > “I think it’s interesting that Zelenskyy’s first native language is Russian (although he also speaks Ukrainian) and I have read he was born somewhere in the Donetsk and Luhansk region.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kryvyi_Rih
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipropetrovsk_Oblast#/media/File:Dnipropetrovsk_in_Ukraine.svg
Abstracting key points, citations omitted:
Born 25 January 1978 in Kryvyi Rih, then in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, a large city in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which is north of the Donetsk & Luhansk regions.
He has been a comedian-actor since the age of 17.
Can you get much more centrist than this?
“In August 2014, Zelenskyy spoke out against the intention of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture to ban Russian artists from Ukraine.” – after the Russians annexed Crimea. “In 2018, the romantic comedy Love in the Big City 2 starring Zelenskyy was banned in Ukraine.”
“After the Ukrainian media had reported that during the war in Donbas Zelenskyy’s (comedy team) Kvartal 95 had donated 1 million hryvnias to the Ukrainian army, some Russian politicians and artists petitioned for a ban on his works in Russia.”
Art imitates life, as the best comedy always does, even if in this case, life imitated art:
“In 2015, Zelenskyy became the star of the television series Servant of the People, where he played the role of the president of Ukraine. In the series, Zelenskyy’s character was a high-school history teacher in his 30s who won the presidential election after a viral video showed him ranting against government corruption in Ukraine.”
“Zelenskyy worked mostly in Russian language productions. His first role in the Ukrainian language was the romantic comedy .. December 2018.”
Now to the important part:
He was a front-runner in polls from the beginning.
Being a popular media star seems to have a universal effect.
A few lulz:
Let’s go, Poroshenkeau!
I highly recommend this February 28 article by Bernard-Henri Levy (h/t Powerline Picks).
It answers a few questions I had about why Zelenskyy won so easily, why he’s so popular in Ukraine, why he’s personally invested in the Resistance, and why Russian citizens are protesting in his support.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-hero-president-z
Davidzon’s posts have been first-hand reports, and are very good.
Interesting historical factoid, maybe not exactly correct; details to follow.
However, Zelenskyy believed it, and that’s what is important.
Was Auschwitz liberated by Ukrainians in the Red Army?
Wikipedia notes the military units involved.
There are some holes and discrepancies in unit names, but this is all I’ve got time to track down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/322nd_Rifle_Division
It was later assigned to the 1st Ukrainian Front – but doesn’t seem to have been one of the units formed primarily from Ukrainian soldiers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Ukrainian_Front
The 60th Army did liberate Auschwitz, but whether the deed was done solely or mostly by Ukrainian troops is disputed.
https://www.rferl.org/a/auschwitz-ukraine-liberators-russia-tensions/26810197.html
Radio Free Europe, January 23, 2015
I don’t think Ukrainians are ready for another Russian occupation.
One more Zelenskyy tidbit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
Citation may be needed, but it’s too good to check!
The view from Estonia: Mark Steyn interviews former Estonian finance minister Martin Helme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcVBS6qH9j8&t=2224s
Helme describes the atmosphere in Estonia as “febrile”. I’ll bet. He says that he saw the war in Ukraine coming as soon as America lost the war in Afghanistan. He also makes some good points about Putin’s systematic plan to reconstitute the Russian/Soviet empire, Russian ruthlessness, and the need for the countries bordering Russia to build up their own military capabilities with a view to hanging on for a week or more if attacked. Without drama, matter-of-factly, he says that the Russians will come for the Baltics as soon as they are done in Ukraine. That seems like a prudent assumption.
Now for some highly amateur armchair generalship. I’m not a military man, but the following points seem fairly obvious. If there is a professional military person on this thread, perhaps he or she can weigh in.
If the Baltic states aren’t already talking with their NATO allies about putting a no-fly zone in place over that region at the first sign of trouble, they should be. They should also be talking about stationing heavy NATO units on their territory, like the U.S. and British armored divisions that were stationed in Germany during the first Cold War. Finally, they should be looking at carrying out pre-emptive strikes against Russian troop and armor concentrations at the jumping-off points on the border. Like the Israelis in 1967: hit first, hit fast, hit hard, and hit deep. They will of course need a nuclear power to back them up and make the Russians think twice about going down that particular road. If not the U.S., then England–which helped Estonia win its war of independence against the Bolsheviks in 1918-1920–or France. Or both. I don’t think they’re going to be able to count on us in our current state. This is a hell of a time in world history for the U.S. to have a brain-dead husk as commander-in-chief–and a woke military. It’s like 1947, when the leadership of the free world passed from the British Empire to the United States. Now it’s passing from us back to Europe. I hope they’re up to it.
” I don’t think they’re going to be able to count on us in our current state.”
And that is all ye’ need to know.
(That is, if one is still wondering, “Why precisely NOW has Putin decided to strike…)
Um, er, Quibble alert: Would say that “America lost the war in Afghanistan” is NOT entirely accurate. Rather, America—more correctly, “Biden”—RAN from Afghanistan WITHOUT PUTTING UP ANY FIGHT, leaving citizens, allies, and billions in materiel behind. And it is precisely because of THIS DISPLAY OF WEAKNESS, THIS OBVIOUS LOSS OF NERVE, THIS UTTER COWARDICE—cowardice that was triumphantly trumpeted by “Biden” as glorious VICTORY, no less— that Putin, as a shark smells blood, perceived opportunity, his ever-ready appetite having been intensely whetted.
I suspect that NATO (i.e., sans USA) is also aware of the predicament it currently faces and it will be their moment of truth, their moment of decision.
…And if one may have thought that the abandonment of Afghanistan was a horrific milestone in American history, I fear they ain’t seen nothing yet.
File under: “Fundamental Transformation” (continued)
Most appropriate to repost this by Victor D. Hanson, which pinpoints the many different facets underlying the current debacle. (Also linked to by the Powerline blog.)
“The Crowded Road to Kyiv;
“To retain our deterrence abroad, we must tighten our belts at home, pump oil and gas, start to balance our budget, junk wokeism as a nihilist indulgence, and recalibrate our military.”
https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/27/the-crowded-road-to-kyiv/