Sorry to jump in here, but what I’m seeing in the covid data is amazing. To quote Maverick from Top Gun, “We’re going vertical!!” That’s literally what the 14 day average new cases graph looks like.. a completely vertical line. I calculated the slope and got a value of around 13.5k cases/day^2. As I plot cases/day, that’s a velocity. So, the slope is the acceleration of cases. From that I can estimate what the cases will be in a week from now and it comes out around 419k/day for a 14 day average. Yesterday there were over 500k new cases, but the 14 day average is at 155k. We could easily see over a million cases per day by next week if the slope continues to be the same.
Serious cases showing an increase the last 3 days, but because the cases are so high the percentage of serious cases has decreased slightly.
In the Peter McCullough interview, he stated the final stage of mass psychosis is that an authoritative entity offers a single way to alleviate the induced fear. He said that has been the government pushing vaxes. I think that has changed as it’s obvious the vaxes no longer work. The shift is now “tests!!” I assume you’ve seen how CT is going to deliver N95s and home tests to everyone in CT. The facebook page from my previous hometown is filled with people literally begging/screaming for the tests and getting upset they have not been delivered. It’s like they think somehow the tests are the key to stopping the virus. The fear is palpable in the posts. If an actual medical treatment such as a vaccine is ineffective, why would these people think a home test helps?? We are living in very strange times. We are testing ourselves into insanity.
physicsguy,
I too am concerned about home testing. First, the tests are not 100% accurate. Second, human error will likely be more common when millions of people begin testing themselves, as opposed to people who have been administering tests professionally, many times a day, for months. Third, does an asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic test mean anything? Fourth, as you note, a significant number of people will obsess about testing and home tests, creating irrational fear in many.
In other words, if we just told people, “If you have a fever, if you don’t feel well, stay home and away from others until symptoms subside.*” Wouldn’t the results be better than spending a fortune mailing tests kits in hopes of turning every American into an amateur pathologist?
*Which is good advice even if you don’t have COVID-19, and have a common cold or seasonal flu.
Regarding neo’s post,
2021 is one year I will be happy to see in the rearview mirror! I’m proud of how my wife and I have navigated the challenges we faced this year, but the challenges seemed completely unnecessary. Circumstances put awful, difficult and large hurdles in front of us despite, almost in spite of, years of good, positive hard work we did to eliminate just such obstacles. I believe in the adage that one makes one’s own luck, but sometimes folks simply have good luck, which means sometimes people simply have bad luck. Here’s hoping 2022 is the start of our turning the corner!
Here’s what wikipedia has to say about Frank C. Stanley, the singer featured singing “Auld Lang Syne” in this post:
Frank C. Stanley (born William Stanley Grinsted, 29 December 1868 – 12 December 1910)[1] was a popular American singer, banjoist and recording artist active in the 1890s and the 1900s.
William Stanley Grinsted was born on 29 December 1868 in Orange, New Jersey. He first recorded banjo solos under his own name in October 1891 for Edison then began recording vocal records in 1898 for the National and Norcross Phonograph Companies under the name Frank C. Stanley. He recorded prolifically for Columbia, Victor and Zonophone disc records between 1901 and 1910, alone and as a member of the Columbia and Peerless Quartets. He died of pleurisy on 12 December 1910 at his home in Orange. In 1904, The Peerless Quartet consisted of tenors Henry Burr and Albert Campbell, baritone Steve Porter, and bass Tom Daniels. In 1906 Frank C. Stanley replaced Daniels and assumed lead singing and managing responsibilities.
Oh noes, the Wickedmedia post includes the detail that the dreaded Circle Dance was/is part of the ritual in Scotland where the song originated.
Happy New Year! to Rufus, physicsguy, Neo, everyone here and afar.
“Auld Lang Syne” has its place. It’s handy to have a short song steeped in tradition to sing when the clock strikes midnight. But my favorite New Year’s song is Frank Loesser’s, “What Are You Doing New Year’s Eve?”
It’s one of my favorite winter Holiday songs period. Great, great song. Female singers seem to especially like singing it.
wikipedia again:
… written in 1947 by Frank Loesser as an independent song. It was first recorded by Margaret Whiting in 1947 and first charted for The Orioles, peaking at No. 9 on Billboard’s Best-Selling Retail Rhythm & Blues chart in December 1949… Although it is typically performed in December, that was not the composer’s intent… his daughter Susan Loesser explains that “the singer, madly in love, is making a (possibly rash) commitment far into the future. (“Maybe it’s much too early in the game. Ah, but I thought I’d ask you just the same–What are you doing New Year’s, New Year’s Eve?”) It always annoyed my father when the song was sung during the holidays”.
Happy New Year Om(?), and all the other neophiles who congregate here!
Happy New Year! Let’s hope the political landscape will be improving.
I don’t know if wiki article about Auld lang syne cites this version of it. I think you’ll enjoy it.
Sorry to jump in here, but what I’m seeing in the covid data is amazing. To quote Maverick from Top Gun, “We’re going vertical!!”
See the South African data. What goes up comes down very quickly. The case count has gone half way to zero in 15 days. Also, from November 17 to December 12, the seven-day moving average of case counts increased by 19,000. from December 5 to December 30, the seven-day moving average of daily deaths increased by 35. The ratio is around 0.002. The Netherlands had a similar ratio, around about 0.003; the case count there has fallen off more slowly – 40% of the way to zero in 33 days. Not calculated yet in regard to Britain, where case counts are still increasing; the case counts their began to increase around 10 November, but the death counts are still declining.
Art Deco, all true about South Africa. My concern is that with the madness of testing, “cases” will just keep going up, up, and away when in reality actual cases are decreasing.
“cases” will just keep going up, up, and away when in reality actual cases are decreasing.
‘Cases’ have been going up in Britain for seven months. Doesn’t move the needle much. Cases recorded by day increased by 46,000 between 27 May and 12 December. Daily deaths increased by about 90 from 15 June to 30 December. The peak in the death toll was reached on 8 November at 170, or the equivalent of about 830 per day over here. There have been two periods over here when the toll was that low: a five week run in June and July 2020 and an 18 week run from April to August of 2021. The current daily death toll in Britain is 80% below what it was last year at this time.
Happy New Year All!
Om: Shall I open a fortune cookie just for you?
Re Covid:
After all the fun and games in the various dysfunctional states in dysfunctional Australia, their graph has gone vertical in the last fortnight:
Sorry to jump in here, but what I’m seeing in the covid data is amazing. To quote Maverick from Top Gun, “We’re going vertical!!” That’s literally what the 14 day average new cases graph looks like.. a completely vertical line. I calculated the slope and got a value of around 13.5k cases/day^2. As I plot cases/day, that’s a velocity. So, the slope is the acceleration of cases. From that I can estimate what the cases will be in a week from now and it comes out around 419k/day for a 14 day average. Yesterday there were over 500k new cases, but the 14 day average is at 155k. We could easily see over a million cases per day by next week if the slope continues to be the same.
Serious cases showing an increase the last 3 days, but because the cases are so high the percentage of serious cases has decreased slightly.
In the Peter McCullough interview, he stated the final stage of mass psychosis is that an authoritative entity offers a single way to alleviate the induced fear. He said that has been the government pushing vaxes. I think that has changed as it’s obvious the vaxes no longer work. The shift is now “tests!!” I assume you’ve seen how CT is going to deliver N95s and home tests to everyone in CT. The facebook page from my previous hometown is filled with people literally begging/screaming for the tests and getting upset they have not been delivered. It’s like they think somehow the tests are the key to stopping the virus. The fear is palpable in the posts. If an actual medical treatment such as a vaccine is ineffective, why would these people think a home test helps?? We are living in very strange times. We are testing ourselves into insanity.
physicsguy,
I too am concerned about home testing. First, the tests are not 100% accurate. Second, human error will likely be more common when millions of people begin testing themselves, as opposed to people who have been administering tests professionally, many times a day, for months. Third, does an asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic test mean anything? Fourth, as you note, a significant number of people will obsess about testing and home tests, creating irrational fear in many.
In other words, if we just told people, “If you have a fever, if you don’t feel well, stay home and away from others until symptoms subside.*” Wouldn’t the results be better than spending a fortune mailing tests kits in hopes of turning every American into an amateur pathologist?
*Which is good advice even if you don’t have COVID-19, and have a common cold or seasonal flu.
Regarding neo’s post,
2021 is one year I will be happy to see in the rearview mirror! I’m proud of how my wife and I have navigated the challenges we faced this year, but the challenges seemed completely unnecessary. Circumstances put awful, difficult and large hurdles in front of us despite, almost in spite of, years of good, positive hard work we did to eliminate just such obstacles. I believe in the adage that one makes one’s own luck, but sometimes folks simply have good luck, which means sometimes people simply have bad luck. Here’s hoping 2022 is the start of our turning the corner!
Here’s what wikipedia has to say about Frank C. Stanley, the singer featured singing “Auld Lang Syne” in this post:
Oh noes, the Wickedmedia post includes the detail that the dreaded Circle Dance was/is part of the ritual in Scotland where the song originated.
Happy New Year! to Rufus, physicsguy, Neo, everyone here and afar.
“Auld Lang Syne” has its place. It’s handy to have a short song steeped in tradition to sing when the clock strikes midnight. But my favorite New Year’s song is Frank Loesser’s, “What Are You Doing New Year’s Eve?”
It’s one of my favorite winter Holiday songs period. Great, great song. Female singers seem to especially like singing it.
wikipedia again:
Happy New Year Om(?), and all the other neophiles who congregate here!
Happy New Year! Let’s hope the political landscape will be improving.
I don’t know if wiki article about Auld lang syne cites this version of it. I think you’ll enjoy it.
Sorry to jump in here, but what I’m seeing in the covid data is amazing. To quote Maverick from Top Gun, “We’re going vertical!!”
See the South African data. What goes up comes down very quickly. The case count has gone half way to zero in 15 days. Also, from November 17 to December 12, the seven-day moving average of case counts increased by 19,000. from December 5 to December 30, the seven-day moving average of daily deaths increased by 35. The ratio is around 0.002. The Netherlands had a similar ratio, around about 0.003; the case count there has fallen off more slowly – 40% of the way to zero in 33 days. Not calculated yet in regard to Britain, where case counts are still increasing; the case counts their began to increase around 10 November, but the death counts are still declining.
Art Deco, all true about South Africa. My concern is that with the madness of testing, “cases” will just keep going up, up, and away when in reality actual cases are decreasing.
“cases” will just keep going up, up, and away when in reality actual cases are decreasing.
‘Cases’ have been going up in Britain for seven months. Doesn’t move the needle much. Cases recorded by day increased by 46,000 between 27 May and 12 December. Daily deaths increased by about 90 from 15 June to 30 December. The peak in the death toll was reached on 8 November at 170, or the equivalent of about 830 per day over here. There have been two periods over here when the toll was that low: a five week run in June and July 2020 and an 18 week run from April to August of 2021. The current daily death toll in Britain is 80% below what it was last year at this time.
Happy New Year All!
Om: Shall I open a fortune cookie just for you?
Re Covid:
After all the fun and games in the various dysfunctional states in dysfunctional Australia, their graph has gone vertical in the last fortnight:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
Re: Graphs gone vertical.
Zaphod:
Mmm yeah.
Tonight I discovered a favorite Firesign Theatre line has been appropriated for fortune cookies…
__________________________
A power so great, it can only be used for Good or Evil!
— Firesign Theatre, “The Tale of the Giant Rat of Sumatra”
__________________________
Happy New Year to Everyone!
May you use your powers wisely.
For all our resident philosophers —
https://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2021/11/IMG_5053.jpeg?w=960&ssl=1
https://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2021/11/IMG_5038.jpeg?w=750&ssl=1
Happy New Year!
Home Free – Auld Lang Syne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFcSfqYqHs4