Vox and public health officials struggle to make Omicron sound really scary…
…and fail.
The omicron variant, the latest curveball in the pandemic, may lead to less severe cases of Covid-19 than earlier strains of the coronavirus, according to one of the largest real-world studies of omicron released so far.
That’s good news, but it could be overshadowed by other data showing that the variant is far more contagious than any version of the virus to date — and that it can evade some immune protection from vaccines and prior infection.
Taken together, these traits make for a counterintuitive situation: Omicron poses a lower risk to most individuals, at least for those who are vaccinated, but the threat to the overall population is high. The question now is whether omicron will infect so many people that it overwhelms the health care system and drives up hospitalizations and deaths — in spite of the smaller percentage of people who come down with severe disease.
Yoohoo Vox – perhaps you could tell us what that percentage might be? I don’t see that figure anywhere in the article, which continues this way:
The answer [to Omicron] is partly in our hands. The strategies that have contained Covid-19 throughout the pandemic still work against omicron, but governments, institutions, and individuals have to be willing to use them.
The strategies that have contained COVID? I haven’t seen too much about any such containment that is consistently related to one strategy or another. Correlation is not causation, etc, and at any rate many of the most draconian strategies seems to have occurred in the areas where COVID hit most seriously. But oh yes, we’ve got to keep going with this stuff…because…whatever.
The article cites a South African study:
The study showed that hospitalization risk was 29 percent lower with omicron infections compared to infections in South Africa last summer, even after controlling for vaccination status.
Once again, we are given no actual rates, just comparative rates.
More:
“One thing we found was that the patients were staying for a shorter time in hospital, and that was across all age groups recently, compared to over time,” said Harsha Somaroo, a public health medicine specialist at the University of the Witwatersrand. Somaroo is also an adviser to the health department of Gauteng, the South African province that has become the epicenter of the country’s omicron wave.
So Omicron isn’t only causing lower hospitalization rates, it also involves shorter hospital stays and less serious disease even among those who are hospitalized.
Nevertheless, Vox would like you to know:
Most US cases are still driven by the delta variant, but omicron could end up fueling a towering spike in hospitalizations and overwhelm the health system just as the winter respiratory infection season hits its peak.
A towering spike. Overwhelm the health system.
Still more:
But almost two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, public patience is wearing thin, and the will to pursue many tactics is fading. The news that omicron may be less severe than other variants could worsen a sense of complacency. It’s also a tough messaging challenge for public health officials.
“How do we confront this where many of us will be at relatively low risk if we end up getting infected — but the secondary impacts of an out-of-control wave that fills up the hospitals with cases … could be quite dire?” asked Lessler.
I’ll take that one: you can’t. People aren’t listening to you anymore. It’s not that we don’t respect the fact that COVID can kill; of course it can, and we’re aware of that. It’s just that the absolute risks seem quite low right now, and with Omicron they seem especially low. You’ve cried wolf on this “the hospitals will be overwhelmed!” theme way too many times. We are tired of you.
So yes, it’s a “tough messaging challenge.” Too bad. Your grip on the public may finally be waning.
The chaos the Dread Variant Omicron is causing may lead to the collapse of a lot of these stupid protocols.
The fact this kind of thing is happening is proof of how ridiculous it all is.
Asymptomatic COVID = bad, very bad.
Symptomatic flu = good, let’s go on a trip
https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1471878420455989253
Ed Yong (who, rather sadly, has a background in science), writing at The Atlantic, has just posted a piece about cancelling the festivities for his birthday because of this terrifying new variant (how many more will there be, perhaps just in time for next year’s election?). Much amusement was had at his expense on Twitchy. All rational persons now understand that the Wuhan virus is endemic and that COVID-Zero is a chimera, but the “forever pandemic” is much too useful for the left ever to relinquish.
Viruse usually mutate to a more transmissible but less lethal form. So, what’s new?
WA has had an indoor mask mandate since August or something like that and today I saw three different people at Trader Joe’s with no mask whatsoever (had mine around my neck as usual) and nobody said a word. At Trader Joe’s the holy temple for the cultists.
Massive non compliance to it all is the only way out.
Neo, you are doing a fine job of parsing this worthless piece of journalism. As you point out, it is littered with “might could maybe” assertions* that are superficially alarming (and designedly so) but that are incapable of being verified or falsified. They’re just lazy speculation. The writer phoned them in. And the absence of real data –actual rates of infection, hospitalization, death– should support an inference that the writer either doesn’t know those facts, or doesn’t want us to know them. If the former, the writer is incompetent. If the latter, the writer is dishonest.
Or both.
*I see this kind of writing all the time in the field of “climate change.” “If the ocean keeps rising [at 2 mm a year], it might could maybe drown the Statue of Liberty in just a few [thousand] years!”
I think this morning I saw from the South African doctor who first announced the omicron, that she said they now have seen it for over 4 weeks and it’s just not a big deal in terms of serious illness.
An observation I noticed this morning updating my virus data: I’m calling it the Great Lakes effect…. the top four states that are pumping up the delta case numbers are those that sit on the lakes: NY, PA, OH, and IL; Wisconsin and Indiana are bit farther down in the list but still within the top 10.
Owen,
Yes! that sort of writing has been going on in the climate field for at least 20 years. The wonderful Michael Mann is still at it. I guess he never learned anything from that lawsuit.
And even before Omicron becomes the dominant strain, cases/hospitalizations/deaths in Washington State continue on their relentless trend DOWN*.
At this point, any time somebody goes to the hospital for whatever reason and relates that the staff are just so, so tired and overworked, I either assume that somebody in that chain is lying (nobly or meanly, I don’t care), or that the hospitals fired too many people over Mandate Theater. In either case, my response to health care types is along the lines of “oh, no, you’re having to do your job that you signed up for on purpose”.
*(okay, sometimes there’s a little jog upwards, but the overall trend goes only one direction and pretty steeply at that.)
All of this is so predictable that anybody following this cannot be surprised.
From the increasing cases in winter to the lesser seriousness of illness to the variants to the weakening of vaccine effectiveness to the media freakout was always going to happen and will continue until either people stop following these ‘requirements’ or vote out the authoritarians.
Do not comply.
Bryan,
Notice how King Jay has been spending all his time on wasting money on environmental junk and throwing more cash at the homeless lately?
To adapt an oft-used line from an ESPN sports anchor –“You can’t stop it. You can only hope to contain it.”
OOPS. Scratch that. Can’t even contain the virus.
They can run and hide. But unless they hide forever (and foolproof hiding may be damn near impossible), they will eventually be exposed to the virus.
This is why lockdowns have failed to saved many, if any, lives. Flattening the curve does not change the area under the curve (area under the curve is a representation of cases or hospitalizations or deaths). It merely extends the time required by the virus to be exposed to the whole population. Just as pushing in the sides of a balloon does not change the volume of air in the balloon. It merely changes the shape.
It’s from Vox, its dishonesty is a given. Both in its insinuations and in it leaving out the most significant data point; a much higher percentage of the vaccinated are susceptible to the Xi-Omicron varient than are the unvaccinated.
The irrationality of all this is driving me nuts. My oldest son and his wife have been double vaccinated and boosted since before Thanksgiving. Two days ago she came down with a nasty case of Covid, nothing dangerous just a bad flu, and my son came down with a mild case yesterday. I’ve only had the first two shots and avoided the booster. They have been nagging me to get it. If I point out that their illnesses tells me that the shots are useless, they deflect claiming that it would have been much worse without them. Argh.. Living in NYC is bad for your ability to reason.
“…You’ve cried wolf on this “the hospitals will be overwhelmed!” theme way too many times. We are tired of you…”
Totally agree, NEO. But it’s the left’s go-to play. They do the same on climate change for instance. They issue dire predictions which never come true. For instance, the Maldives were supposed to be under water by 2018. You can go to the Maldives tourist board website and if you wish can still plan your vacation. In 2000 the UK Independent published an article which stated that “Snowfalls May Be a Thing of the Past.” I forget which scientific fraud they interviewed for the article (like others I made a screen shot of the page, but unfortunately I lost in when my hard drive crashed, but there are so many others who did the same thing I still enjoy seeing it) but I do recall he worked for the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit. If you recall the UEA CRU helped perpetrate the “hockey stick” fraud and is a major source of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He predicted that in ten years from the date of publication children wouldn’t know what snow is.
Believe me, children in the UK know what snow is. They probably know more about snow than they ever wanted to considering it’s often too expensive to heat their homes. The climate change hoaxers are something like 0 for 50 in the past 30 years.
Or really it’s their go-to move when they try to fear-monger against any policy they don’t like. Every time a state decides to become a shall-issue state for concealed carry of weapons they claim that state will become the lawless Wild West. It never happens. But on the other hand they don’t report on the violence in cities which practically outlaw legal ownership of firearms, because places like Chicago really do look like the lawless Wild West.
Kamala Harris says women will die if Roe v. Wade is overturned. As if the issue goes back to the states, all states will outlaw abortion. Hell, Kali is planning on paying for travel expenses and room and board for any woman who “needs” an out of state abortion. Now Joe Biden is predicting a “winter of death” for the unvaccinated, with Omicron “here now and spreading.”
Since they are never able to learn, when that doesn’t happen, and it won’t since the vast majority of cases are among the ironically termed “vaccinated,” they’ll just keep spouting the same lie.
Paul from Boston wrote:
“…If I point out that their illnesses tells me that the shots are useless, they deflect claiming that it would have been much worse without them. Argh.. Living in NYC is bad for your ability to reason.”
I totally agree. You may try to explain to them that until September of this year the definition of a vaccine included the stipulation that it provide immunity. Since these mRNA jabs can’t do that the CDC on its immunization page simply changed the definition, replacing the word immunity with protection.
Despite the word games, if a vaccine doesn’t provide immunity it isn’t a vaccine. That’s how we rid the world of smallpox and polio (although polio may still exist in isolated pockets). Because the smallpox and polio vaccines provided actual immunity. They didn’t merely result in milder cases, while still allow the “vaccinated” to infect others as is the case with these mRNA jabs.
You might also explain that if they don’t feel ill enough to stay home, then they’re a major public health threat. Would they like going out and mingling with people or go see a doctor, who can reinfect them since the doctor or people they socialize with didn’t feel sick enough to stay home?
New York Daily News article` in today’s Everett Herald said the following
1.Omicron is highly transmissible.
2. Vaccinations do not protect against Omicron.
3. Antibodies from previous infection by other variants don’t protect from Omicron.
4. Monoclonal antibodies are useless in treating Omicron.
5. We’re doomed!
They cited a new study from Columbia University and a Dr. David Ho – argument from authority. Just like climate change. The beat goes on.
Fauci and Collins are snakes. The ‘three fringe epidemiologists’ Collins mentioned are Kulldorf from Harvard, Gupta from Oxford and Battycharia from Stanford.
And Great Barrington would have been a much better policy prescription than the one these clowns helped enact.
https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1471964327959842817
https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1471267395918458882
You want a piece of evidence that higher ed administrators are unfit to occupy the positions they do, here it is. The daily death toll in this country is currently running at < 1/2 of what it was last year at this time and, this year or last year, their students are not in danger from this virus. The semester is nearly over. If they're anxious about the welfare of their employees over the age of 50, they can furlough them and send their younger employees to proctor the bloody exams.
“Breakthrough infections generate ‘super immunity’ to COVID-19, study suggests…”
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-breakthrough-infections-super-immunity-covid-.html
Linked at Insty this morning
Griffin, yes, yes, yes! At the Walmart in Vancouver where I shop, I decided not to wear my mask today. There were quite a few others in there with none and not a peep or even a dirty look from anyone.
All that need be done is “lower the curve.”
How long can that take? one week, two weeks, four at most.
What’s the big deal.
And no need to wear masks, per the diminutive, Antonio IL Duce Fauci; the virus particles are just too small for a face mask to catch them.
Just checked the data; so far , in the entire WORLD, ONE PERSON has died.
So, we now have definitive proof that omicron is deadly (tell me again, how many folks die each year from the ‘normal’ flu??)
Not sure if he died from omicron, with omicron, jointly with omicron, mostly with omicron, perhaps a little bit with omicron, having a 10^(-15) mm size snippet of omicron or most likely, a normal weak omicron molecule made super strength due to climate change and riding in an SUV.
Oh, oh, you dominant strain.
Overwhelm me with your towering spike.
😉
@AppleBetty:
There’s definitely a bit of that going around!
Now take ten deep breaths, exhaling slowly each time, and then get back to juggling Lie Groups.
Were I more wicked, I’d head straight over to Gab and see if the talented versifiers there could find anything to rhyme with Spike.
Biden vaccine mandate back on. 6th circuit overrules the 5th circuit.
Supreme Court needs to take this up now but I’m sure Barrett and Kavanaugh will side with the four leftist justices so it won’t matter.
All to force people to take a vaccine that clearly has little use as anything but a mild therapeutic. At best.
Griffin,
“6th circuit overrules the 5th circuit.”
??? Are not circuit courts regional? Once one issues a ruling my understanding is that only the SC can then overrule a circuit court ruling.
Geoffrey,
This explains it. ‘Highly unusual’ but we live in highly unusual times.
https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/1472007963887865864
I mentioned the Joe Rogan Experience podcast in another thread but I think the commenting there I had dried up when I posted it.
It’s available through Spotify or Rumble. Please watch/listen to Rogan’s interview of Dr. McCullough. I can’t speak to all of the doctor’s assertions, but given what we have seen, it looks like he’s been more correct than our Fauci/Birx/WHO led cabal.
And his main point- which my wife has been complaining about since the start- is that there has been no treatment protocol after positive test beyond sending people home:
“Go home. Isolate. If/when you’re on death’s door, come to the hospital and we’ll put you on a dangerous medicine (Remdesivir) and a ventilator-a significant chance of death, even in generally healthy people (its a superhighway of infection right into a wet, warm breeding ground). All while throttling the supply of monoclonal antibodies.”
Almost all calls to have some sort of treatment protocols (like Dr. Zelenko’s, for only one example), to treat people in the initial stages before the illness progresses, have been met with various calls for ridicule and worse.
The podcast is 3 hours but well, well worth the listen.
“??? Are not circuit courts regional? Once one issues a ruling my understanding is that only the SC can then overrule a circuit court ruling.”
Normally yes, but the Circuits have a deal among them for dealing with what are essentially national cases. The problem is that district courts are now issuing national injunctions, that affect all of the Circuits. The danger is that, absent this agreement, you would have a race by the courts to decide these cases (won this time by the 5th Circuit). So, they agreed to pick the Circuit Court hearing the appeals by random, and to all abide by that Circuit’s decision. The 5th Circuit is fairly heavily conservative (and thus critical of Biden). The 6th Circuit is slightly conservative (slight majority nominated by Republican Presidents). At least it wasn’t the still liberal 9th Circuit. The problem, at this point, is that they drew a more liberal 3 judge panel. Luck of the draw. They probably have some chance still if they can get an en banc hearing (which in most Circuits means all of the active judges in the Circuit Court).
Are you ready for the Pi vairan?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzOs4PX7UMs
Only takes 2 more centuries to flatten the curve. You all comply to make it end sooner.
Fractal Rabbit on December 18, 2021 at 10:16 am said:
This qabal you speak of sounds like the mythical q shamans.