And here’s why I haven’t written about Biden and Putin and Ukraine
First of all, because everything Biden touches turns to garbage, so why should this be any different? And why would anyone think Biden could handle such a situation – even when he was functioning a lot better? His supposed skill at foreign affairs was always a Democrat myth, one fostered by the MSM. And now, of course, he can’t even read a teleprompter correctly.
But I don’t want to totally ignore the topic, and so I’m linking to this:
The threat of sanctions is meant to deter a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine. But history shows that sanctions are no more of a deterrent to Putin than a speed bump to a monster truck. Just ask the good folks of occupied Crimea. Or occupied Georgia.
Indeed, sanctions are not for deterring bad behavior; they are a tool of coercion, meant to punish bad behavior. Totalitarian regimes have learned to live with sanctions. Just ask the ayatollah…
Rather than just threatening sanctions, the White House should be demanding immediate sanctions from Congress on the Nord Stream II pipeline. The administration should be working with our allies to determine who will send what to best help Ukraine bolster its air defenses, electronic warfare capabilities, and more.
Rather than dust off contingency plans for the emergency evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, the administration should double down on supporting Ukraine and reaffirm U.S. support of Moldova and Georgia (which also have territory occupied by Putin).
What’s needed most of all is leadership.
Dream on.
A Witches Brew is in the caldron. Putin, XI, Iran, NK all are adding to the potion. It will be a bitter cup for the US, and the rest of the “free world”. (Kind of hard to call countries that have imposed draconian rules on Covid free.
The real issue is how any of this truly affects our interests and our security. It is rather dispiriting how many Republicans on Capitol Hill (to say nothing of the delusional Democrats) seem to care more about the border separating Ukraine and Russia (two countries closely connected linguistically, ethnically, culturally, and religiously) than about our own porous southern border. Tucker’s excellent monologue of a few days ago touched on many of the salient points in this matter; one need not approve of Russia’s leader in the slightest in order to understand Putin’s version of our own Monroe Doctrine, nor should one forget Victoria Nuland’s meddling (with tens of millions in dollars from American taxpayers) in Ukraine’s election some years ago.
Ukraine is about NATO. The idea is if Ukraine is attacked, NATO should respond, but Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. The reason is pretty simple. Germany relies on fuel and heating gas from Russia, which is why Nord Stream II is so important to Merkle and Putin, and now Biden.
Trump tried to warn Merkle. He sanctioned Nord Stream II and promoted the TAP/TANAP pipeline that would bring gas from the Caspian Sea via Turkey into Italy. But everyone, including his own Generals, tried to claim Trump was destroying NATO. They also claimed Trump was withholding aid to Ukraine.
So here we are. The NATO alliance is in no position to respond to an invasion of Ukraine. The American people have effectively zero interest in participating in another war anywhere. And Biden is so onboard with ending wars, he left Americans and allies to die in Afghanistan.
I’m not sure what Putin would want with Ukraine as a dependent. Because of the precarious position Ukraine is in, Putin can get all that he wants out of them while not being responsible for them. The biggest value is forcing the collapse of NATO, but why? NATO not only ties up economic spending in the west, but it is money tied to militaries without a will to fight (at least not at the leadership level). I think Putin would only invade if China invaded Taiwan first or pays Putin to cause a distract prior to a Taiwan invasion. In the meantime, time is on Putin’s side, especially with crude oil price over $70bbl and Henry Hub spiking up to $6. Why spoil the market just now?
I found Tucker’s monologue dreadful. He sounded very much like the fellow travelers of the 1940s-1980s.
1. Putin is just securing his borders. No, Putin has no fear that Russia’s borders would be challenged by any Western or Western allied nation. Just the opposite; Putin has declared the breakup of the Soviet Union a disaster and his goal is to put it back together.
2. He’s afraid he’s lose access to the Black Sea. No. So Tucker thinks the Ukraine is going to attack Russia to get Sebastopol and the Crimea? Get real.
3. NATO membership for Ukraine is a threat. No. Why would it be a threat. What has happened in the last 70 years to indicate the West poses a military threat of invasion.
4. The colonel he offered up as support found that, for some reason, Russia being a Christian nation makes some difference. Two thirds of the Axis were Christian nations.
5. The colonel said Russia is not the Soviets, it’s just what it was for 1000 years. At least that is correct. Russia for 1000 years (maybe 500 more accurately) was an aggressive, brutal, imperialist power hated and feared by their neighbors, for good reason.
6. Tucker said the shipping lanes of the S China Sea, unlike the Ukraine, are a vital American interest. Yet, I suspect that when China, seeing American impotence via a vis Russia, begins aggressing in the S China Sea or against Taiwan/Japan/Korea/India, Tucker will change his tune.
Didn’t we learn in the 30’s that a world in which rogue states have no fear that their aggression will result in any significant consequences is one in which the chaos will eventually harm everyone. The rogue states in this world are not just minor powers, they’re Russia and China.
@jvermeer:
Sorry to break it to you, Old Mate.. but in 2021 the USA is *the* rogue state.
What business of yours is it what happens on the Don or the Dniester? Are you some kind of God? Or are you one of those who famously out-lawyered God and have a special interest in Colour Revolutions in the Ukraine? 😛
Boomers: Don’t take this personally. It’s not you. It’s not your fault it’s not 1985. Things Happened. You are not responsible for the actions of your government in 2021. Your votes have no meaning and you are mere subjects, not citizens. Again.. not trying to wind up people. It’s pure objective fact.
So why be suckered by these unaccountable sociopathic shitbags who rule over you? The least you can do is not parrot their insane and dangerous warmongering nonsense. There is dignity in withholding consent.
Putin is no saint, but he’s not making your grandchildren attend Drag Queen Story Hour.
How refreshing it would be to be ruled over by someone who actually loves his own country and peoples and isn’t a Cloud Person.
Per Cromwell: “I Beseech You, in the Bowels of Christ, Think it Possible You May Be Mistaken”
The fecklessness, stupidity, and disorder of the current administration may well result in any one of our foreign flashpoints going real hot real fast.
Previous commentators are, in my view, spot on for Russia and China and know more than I do.
The one that **SHOULD** keep us up at night is the red line that the Israelis have repeatedly “drawn in the sand” on Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. And they mean it. Every. Single. Word. Israel knows its very existence is at stake. They will never trust a piece of paper will protect them.
Even the 1945-vintage bomb(s) the Iranians can build with their enriched uranium present a lethal threat to Israel. I have been there. It’s a small country with limited depth of resources. Israel taking unilateral action before Iran completes its nuclear delivery system– whatever it is — is certain.
The Levant is a bad neighborhood with lots of dangerous actors all very close together.
Things could get out of control very, very fast. With Biden and company in charge, may G*d help us all.
Zaphod:
We quite disagree.
I didn’t leave the Left to have you, Art Deco, Cicero or anyone else tell me The Way It Is and How Mistaken I Am.
The US ain’t perfect but it’s a long way from The Rogue State. You’ll pardon me if I leave that view to you, the Weather Underground, BLM/Antifa, Russia and China.
@Roll-aid:
So you agree then that the best thing is for the USA to stay out of involvement in the Middle East? Nuclear armed to the teeth and possessed of a Samson Option sub-launched nukes capability Israel seems perfectly capable of defending herself and sabotaging whatever and assassinating whoever in order to defeat the Iranian nuclear program.
And the USA’s recent record of intervention in foreign disputes has been so atrociously incompetent that it could only make things worse.
So… no point worrying about what you shouldn’t be involved in anyway. Best thing to do is go secure the border with Mexico or something no…? Then maybe, just maybe… one day in a hundred years or so there might again be a competent and sane USA capable of being of use to Israel…. if that’s so important to you.
I don’t think a 50% Aztec Melting Pot is going to be super deeply enthralled by the perpetual travails real and imagined of your Greatest Ally (which never sent anyone to die for you in Korea or Vietnam and sold a chunk of your military tech to the Chinese).
Best close the borders, get busy breeding, and teaching reading, writing, and ‘rithmetic.
🙂
@Huxley:
We’re not going to agree.
Now explain to me how the Crimea which became Russian with Catherine the Great and Grigoriy Potemkin should be ripped away from them because some vicious children in Foggy Bottom are full of greed and spite?
How would you like to lose Florida?
Except Florida is your only warm water port?
These #@$%tards are playing with fire.
Do you recall why Kruschev wanted short range nukes in Cuba? Because the US bunged some in Turkey. Madness.
@Zaphod
Mutual nuclear deterrence worked for decades because the western powers, Russia and China were reasonably sane and had a strong aversion to be totally destroyed along with most of the Northern Hemisphere in a nuclear WW3.
I have no doubt that an A-bomb that goes off over Tel Aviv, Haifa or Dimona would result in a counterstrike. Iran has uranium bombs; Israel has thermonuclear. Iran would cease to exist. Would Israel stop there? Why not take out Damascus while they’re at it?
But the Israeli position is not to enter into a middle eastern version of MAD. It’s to take away the possibility that Iran is not a rational actor and hit them HARD before any weapon and the means to deliver it can be created.
If Israel can take out the Iranian nuclear facilities in a surprise action with no US hands-on or direct support, wonderful. What happens the day after? Do the Iranians just bury their dead try again? Or do they take action with what remains of their forces against whatever they can? Will others try to fill the vacuum left by a crippled Iran?
Who knows? It will be a very dangerous time. I agree 100 % with your statement “And the USA’s recent record of intervention in foreign disputes has been so atrociously incompetent that it could only make things worse.” That’s exactly why an Israeli-Iran war could spread and we’d have no clue what to do about it, leaving it open to others.
-I’m happy to say I support Leland’s views as he stated them above 100%.
-huxley must be having a bad day or week or month. I may have disagreed with him from time to time (not important enough for me to remember), as I’ve disagreed with our hostess, and others. Apparently huxley seems to think those who disagree with him are offending and wrong. But is not the sharing of different POV the key feature of this blog? Who is he to judge?
Yes, I see the US rapidly descending into a 2nd rate country. We may differ on the rate of decline.
@Roll-aid:
I’m pretty much aligned with everything you say in response to me. Especially re Israeli considerations and strategic calculus.
Still worry about unnecessary conflagration. Not convinced that the Iranian Mullahs are totally irrational. They need to stir the pot and export some trouble… but it’s something to be managed if at all possible. Hard enough factoring in Iranian and Israeli domestic politics without the US foreign policy establishment and Pentagon Perfumed Princes barging about breaking stuff and betraying everyone and reneging on deals as they always do of late.
Regarding rationality of the three great powers in 2021, my estimate:
1. Russia: As game-theoretically sane as the USSR was. i.e. very. But the Russian Public will not stand for territorial losses or mass movements of US Military personnel and hardware on their borders. And nor should they.
2. China: Chinese are *very* pragmatic. Mostly sane. The one problem is that (brains explode please, fans of democracy and classical liberalism) public opinion matters much more in China now than it did back in the old days and if the PRC is pushed into a corner where Chinese will lose FACE then all bets are off. The more freedom of expression in China the more dangerous and unstable China becomes.
GloboHomo Universalists don’t grok Face in Eastern cultures. It’s far more serious than not paying retail to a YouKnowWho. They’ll kill rather than lose bigly in the Face Department. Doesn’t mean you can’t negotiate and reason and even outsmart them without being nuked… But you have to do it in a way that respects Face. Way above pay grade of cretins in DC.
3. The USA Today. Do I really need to say anything about current Ruling Class?
If Putin is convinced that invading Ukraine will be too costly in $$$ , economic hardships and dead Russians, he will not invade.
Nations invade other nations when they are convinced they will prevail quickly and with acceptable costs. The will not if they believe it will be a protracted, never ending slug fest whose costs in men , materiel and $$$ is excessive. Putin may want to invade Ukraine real bad, but not if it will cost him his job.
If Ukraine is provided, beginning now, with massive amounts of military aid (from the USA and NATO) COMBINED with a real threat of very very severe economic sanctions against Russia from the USA and W.Europe, Putin would have to think twice if it’s worth invading; the cost to Russia would simply be too high.
He certainly does not want to lose his job as president.
Unfortunately, one cannot rely on Europe to enforce or even implement severe economic sanctions on Russia, esp. since Germany and other Euro nations rely on Russian oil/gas (thanks to joke bidet and Germany).
Recall NATOs inaction when Yugoslavia fell apart and look at the European trade with Iran.
Recall NATOs response when Trump asked member nations to pay their fair share; a share they had committed to !!
Unfortunately, relying on NATO is a non-starter, and relying on the morons in our govt. – joke bidet, blinken, obama, et. al. – to make the right decisions is hoping against hope.
Frankly, if I were Putin, I would invade Ukraine tomorrow. He had been handed a gift in Bidet / Obama / Blinken / and the pathological liar, Rice. These morons are so stupid, they don’t even get any respect from the Western Europeans, and Putin knows this (as does everybody else).
IMHO the ONLY reason Putin is hesitating is he is trying to gauge what sort of economic sanctions the Europeans would implement against Russia.
If they are very severe and lengthy, and he is made aware of this, he will not invade because the cost will be too great.
I feel bad for the Ukrainians and dread what would Russia then do in the Baltic states. Russia could over run the Baltics in one week (or less.). As for US military personnel in the Baltics, the Russians can just go around them.
Xi’s shill tells the Boomers to hurry up and die, since they must be brain dead.
Zaphod, don’t sell yourself so cheap for Vlad, Winnie may notice.
“I’m not sure what Putin would want with Ukraine as a dependent.” Leland
It’s easy enough to understand if you simply put yourself in Putin’s place. All that need be done to dissuade Russia from invading the Ukraine is for the E.U. to simply give up trying to make the Ukraine part of NATO.
Kiev, the Ukraine’s capital is just 80 miles from Moscow. Russians have a very long historical memory and have not forgotten that they’ve been invaded twice, once by France and more recently by Germany. In both cases the very survival of Russia teetered upon a precipice.
NATO has been pushing for NATO membership for the Ukraine ever since the Soviet Union fell. And especially at the end of Putin’s second term, when it became obvious that he intended to permanently rule.
If the Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, The problem for Russia, besides having NATO literally at its doorstep is that it would threaten Russia’s access to its Sevastopol Naval base. Strategically, a NATO Ukraine would hold a dagger to Russia’s neck. Russia can no more allow that to happen than we could allow nuclear ICBMs in Cuba.
JohnTyler,
A predictable protracted, never ending slug fest whose costs in men , materiel and $$$ was excessive did not prevent WWI nor our involvement in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
Strategic and political factors often override economic considerations.
I understand your point Geoffrey, but the EU has already decided time and again not to include Ukraine in NATO. If that’s the issue, then this is like the yearly US Pacific Rim military exercises with Kim Jung threatening to invade the South. Both sides military preens for each other, gets funding approved, and then goes home.
The reason why Putin has, in the past worked to install a corrupt leader in the Ukraine, one “amenable to financial persuasion” is to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO. Thus avoiding the need to invade the Ukraine and avoid a potential armed confrontation with the US, which could conceivably devolve into nuclear war.
It’s the height of geopolitical stupidity to force an opponent into a fight that neither side wants.
Kiev, the Ukraine’s capital is just 80 miles from Moscow.
544 miles.
Russians have a very long historical memory and have not forgotten that they’ve been invaded twice, once by France and more recently by Germany. In both cases the very survival of Russia teetered upon a precipice.
I’ll wager Ukrainians have a long enough memory to recall that the central government in Moscow engineered a famine in the Ukraine in 1932-33. Death toll: 4 million.
The reason why Putin has, in the past worked to install a corrupt leader in the Ukraine, one “amenable to financial persuasion” is to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO and thus avoiding the need to invade the Ukraine and avoid an armed confrontation with the US, which could conceivably devolve into nuclear war.
The Russophile parties once commanded > 40% of the Ukrainian electorate. Now down to < 25%. #winning
Leland,
“the EU has already decided time and again not to include Ukraine in NATO.”
The past is not a guarantee of the future. Those in favor of the Ukraine’s NATO membership haven’t changed their minds. As long as the possibility exists that at some point the Ukraine could join NATO, the potential of an existential threat to Russia remains. Any Ukrainian leadership ‘unfriendly’ to Russia makes that threat a greater possibility.
In addition, a tried and true means for a government to deflect domestic criticism is to precipitate a war. One in which its responsibility for the initiation of the war is covered by “plausible deniability”. The democrats and the Biden adminstration need a war, who better with than evil Putin? Surely, such a conflict wouldn’t erupt into nuclear war.
Art,
My mistake, I confused time with distance. Google maps says its a 10.5 hr drive. It’s a 7 hour drive from the Ukraine’s border to Moscow. That’s doorstep for national security considerations.
Of course Ukrainians remember Stalin’s imposition of famine. That’s irrelevant from the standpoint of Russia’s security considerations.
That decline in political support and the weakness of the Biden administration is why Putin is considering invading the Ukraine.
#winning carries its dangers. The Allied treatment of Germany in the aftermath of WWI was a convincing demonstration that unintended consequences can follow ‘winning’.
That’s irrelevant from the standpoint of Russia’s security considerations.
Let’s see you be ecumenical in your manufacture of excuses.
Geoffrey:
The German generals started the lie immediately after signing the Treaty of V. that their army had never been defeated. The German military was not at all averse to trying again 20 years later. Lazy history to blame it on those vengeful French and British. The second time around Germany fared even worse, as did the whole world.
I’m old enough to remember what Trump did to Putin’s forces in Syria when Putin pushed things. Putin backed off. So did all the other “bad actors.”
I remember when Trump took out Soleimani. Message received.
It mainly requires a demonstration of the will to use the force that you have, if necessary.
4 years of peace. Thrown away by the current crop of fools and knaves.
boatbuilder,
Yes.
Art Deco,
Excuses? Insight into an adversary’s deepest motivation is not ‘making excuses’. But to suggest it to be so is to engage in obfuscation. As well as a weak attempt at concealing an inability to rebut in direct response to an assertion. You can’t deal effectively with an adversary whose motivations you misconstrue.
Anonymous,
“The German generals started the lie immediately after signing the Treaty of V. that their army had never been defeated.”
They did.
Yet, a decade of impossible to meet war repartions, followed by a world wide Great Depression created an insane runaway inflation in Germany that saw a million duchmarks to buy a loaf of bread… That led to a far more widespread conviction that Germany was being unjustly punished for a war that both side’s treaty obligations had drug them into… when Hitler proposed that the Jews, a tried and true scapegoat was to blame for it all, a desperate nation bought it, hook, line and sinker.
My ‘boomer’ generation was raised with the meme that Germany and Japan’s moral depravity was due to a highly flawed culture. America’s slide into half its population today supporting fascist tyranny decidely disproves that convenient, hubristic theory.
“We have met the enemy and, he is us…”
Zaphod,
Regarding a few assertions you make…
Contrast: “public opinion matters much more in China now than it did back in the old days” with “The more freedom of expression in China the more dangerous and unstable China becomes.”
When the public has little freedom of expression… how can public opinion matter?
“if the PRC is pushed into a corner where Chinese will lose FACE then all bets are off.”
I agree with how important FACE is in eastern cultures. That’s an inherent psychological and sociological imperative in collectivist cultures.
IMO, the danger isn’t in the PRC being pushed into a corner by the U.S. (the only nation with the ability to do so) no American administration is going to cavalierly risk war with China or any nuclear armed nation. That’s especially true of the Biden administration.
Rather I’m troubled at the prospect of the CCP initiating actions that force a reactive response fromother nations… that the Chinese perceive as forcing them into a loss of FACE if they don’t seek to win at all costs most likely an attack and invasion of Taiwan.
A secondary possibility is a reactive attack upon Australia and/or Japan should they interfere with an invasion of Taiwan. Either one would force a response by the US. As to not do so would result in political suicide for the democrats.
@GeoffreyBritain:
“When the public has little freedom of expression… how can public opinion matter?”
Think about it like this: When the public believe as a matter of State Religion / Communal Madness that they *ought* to have an opinion on every topic under the sun — from Global Warming, to epidemiological policy, to electing the Town Dog Catcher… when the Public become Tocqueville’s jaundiced eye’s worst nightmare — then Public Opinion is mostly diffuse and pointless and tends to flap around distractedly. Add on to that the nature of media ownership and popular culture…
Now… take another kind of country where it is a time-honored given that the Public don’t get much of a say in the normal run of things. Let’s imagine that in this type of country there is a general understanding that you obey rulers when they deliver the goods and the country isn’t experiencing chaos every time there is a natural disaster and that even if Mistakes Are Made, there tends to be a pretty tight OODA loop. Let’s call it the Mandate of Heaven. Well… you get the consent of the governed so long as you don’t Eff it Up majorly. Losing territory to a foreign power might be construed as Effing it Up Majorly.
Furthermore, in One-Party States like China, things are not cartoon monolithic. There are factions inside the CCP which fight each other just as much as both Republican and Democratic wings of your UniParty do. It’s fair to say that Xi doesn’t want anyone portraying him as too weak to sort out Taiwan. For all we know he could be quite happy about the status quo, but to admit that publicly would be the end of him. FWIW three of the Factions are the Communist Youth League Faction (basically young talented up and comers even when they have grown old, The Princelings (Xi and Buddies), and the Shanghai Gang (Mafia would be closer — Jiang Zemin and his protégés). It’s complicated. All of these have varying ability to get stuff into the media and promote debate to get their points across… Basically same as you have in the USA, really… Amazing how often you get diverse parts of Western media suddenly singing same or two variations or two opposing tunes in harmony or counterpoint — various factions / interests are pushing agendas.
Ramble, ramble. Again… China is not monolithic. No you can’t elect Town Dog Catcher or much of anyone… But you sure as hell are going to riot or even protest in the streets in your millions if your country loses an inch of territory to (say) India. And you’ll be doing it patriotically. The army isn’t going to shoot you for that.
I contend that in bluntly authoritarian societies, public opinion matters more at the extremes because (a) can only be expressed in more extreme situations, and (b) because more virile due to less depletion by random opinionated onanism on every topic under the sun which Joe Schmoe isn’t qualified to bloviate on anyway but flatters himself that he is.
And the first person to look significantly at me after last para doesn’t get any Fortune Cookie.
@GeoffreyBritain:
You said,
” A predictable protracted, never ending slug fest whose costs in men , materiel and $$$ was excessive did not prevent WWI nor our involvement in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
Strategic and political factors often override economic considerations.”
The severity, cost and length of the conflicts you cite , excepting perhaps the Iraq conflicts, were ALL underestimated by the Germany, UK, France and the USA as the case may be.
It was only after the wars had commenced – and kept on going at great cost – that the “experts” came out of the woodwork and claim they were “predictable.
None of the conflicts you cite were predictable before the fact.
WWI was a prime example whereby the Germans, UK and France thought the conflict would be over within one year and each side believed they would prevail.
Guess what?
They were all wrong; and they discovered this the hard way.
In Vietnam, the US military was convinced that a bunch of sandal wearing rice farmers would be defeated very quickly and easily by the world’s most formidable military – that of the USA.
After all, in the 1960s, many US military leaders had been involved in beating the Hitler’s mighty Wehrmacht in WWII as well as checking the N.Koreans and Chinese in the Korean conflict.
How could a bunch of skinny rice farmers beat the USA? No way.
Well, the US military guessed wrong by a billion miles.
(Did not help that General Westmoreland , an artillery officer during WWII, was given the overall command of US forces in Vietnam. He actually believed – and he said this – that firepower would win the Vietnam war. The notion the enemy were guerrilla fighters totally escaped him.)
No nation on earth would ever enter into a conflict that they believed would be too costly, interminable and believing the odds of winning are too low.
So why all the wars?
Because one or both sides are convinced – WRONGLY – that their victory is a slam dunk; that their goals will be rapidly achieved.
I will agree with you that post-Vietnam, US involvement in foreign conflicts is driven by politics as opposed to insuring the security of the USA. Because of this, the USA no longer does what it takes to prevail in war and is too concerned with international opinion.
This is a recipe for unwinnable wars or wars that do not advance the security or influence of the USA.
Ukraine was divided through a Western-backed coup. Georgia was divided to set up a protectorate during a quasi-civil war targeting Russians.
NATO vs Russia: The only winner will be China.
Ukraine was divided through a Western-backed coup. Georgia was divided to set up a protectorate during a quasi-civil war targeting Russians.
Huh? The President of the Ukraine was run out of office in 2014 when the military would not use force against public demonstrations. He was within months replaced with an elected successor. To the extent the country is ‘divided’, its because the Russian government (1) seized the Crimea and (2) have been financing a quisling armed force in a portion of two counties in the Donbass, one of which contains the Ukraines 2d largest city. Nobody compelled them two do that.
The violence in Georgia in 1993 was between different Georgian political factions. The ethnic angle was the expulsion of Georgians living in Abkhazia. Given that they outnumbered the Abkhaz by 2.5 to 1, that could only have been achieved with assistance from abroad. Russia seized South Ossetia in 2008.
Excuses? Insight into an adversary’s deepest motivation is not ‘making excuses’.
You’re not offering insight except in your own imagination.
I’ll go out on a limb here and say that the “Biden”-Putin “contretemps” is pure theater meant to demonstrate how much tough-guy “Biden” is standing up to Russia (as opposed to Trump being “Putin’s poodle”(TM)).
If such is in fact the case, then what’s going on is something along the lines of “Biden” deferentially asking Putin to “bear with me while I pretend to be stand up to you on this crazy Ukraine thing…which’ll blow over in a few days and be forgotten—a week maximum…thanks Vlad, you’re terrific! I owe you one…Love to Galina or Elena…or whatever her name is…”
Meislin, why dont you say q did it like as before?
Leland said “Ukraine is about NATO. The idea is if Ukraine is attacked, NATO should respond, but Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. The reason is pretty simple. Germany relies on fuel and heating gas from Russia, which is why Nord Stream II is so important to Merkle and Putin, and now Biden.”
Leland is right. Let’s boil it down, simply and without domestic politics.
Russia – big.
Germany – big.
Russian fuel sales to Germany – big
All those states in between – collateral damage.
Yammer mixes up Barry Meislen with someone else, while Yammer pushed QAnon disinformation. A classic Yammer own goal.