Obesity and COVID death rates
Here’s some recent research on the relation between COVID deaths and obesity:
To identify potential patterns in data, the researchers employed cutting-edge techniques of statistical analyses.
“The main finding from the analysis is a statistically significant positive association between COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of the overweight in adult populations spanning 154 countries,” Beladi said. “This association holds across countries belonging to different income groups and is not sensitive to a population’s median age, proportion of the elderly, and/or proportion of females.”
Beladi added that when the proportion of the overweight people in a country’s adult population is one percentage point higher than the proportion of the overweight in a second country’s adult population, based on this study, it is reasonable to predict that COVID-19 mortality would be 3.5 percentage points higher in the first country than it would be in the second…
They added that on average, the COVID-19 pandemic has been more fatal for adult populations residing in parts of the world characterized by excess body weight.
When I read about this study, something struck me as odd. I once did some research on what the world’s fattest countries are, and the answers surprised me at the time. Those countries are for the most part not places with high COVID tolls. If this research is true, why would that be?
One reason is, of course, that weight is only one factor in COVID deaths and there are many others (including, for example, method of defining and reporting). But still, isn’t it odd that the countries with the fattest populations aren’t the highest in COVID deaths per million? Some of them of course, are small islands such as Tonga and Samoa, which are relatively isolated. But many are Arab countries such as Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAR, and Qatar, as well as Turkey, Egypt, and Libya.
Then compare that list of obese countries to this list of COVID deaths per million/population (scroll down a bit to find the chart, and then look at the “Deaths/1M pop” column), country by country. Better yet, compare this much longer and more complete list of countries ranked on obesity (scroll down about 2/3 of the way to find it) to that COVID death rate chart. Your should be able to immediately see that it seems far more haphazard than the study might indicate. Just to take a few examples, Peru has the highest COVID death rate in the world, but it’s on the thinner side as countries go. Bosnia and Herzegovina, next on the list in terms of COVID deaths per million, is even thinner. Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechia have extremely high COVID death rates and are more or less middling in terms of European obesity rates, which are not all that high to begin with. As for those Arab countries that have very high obesity rates, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, their COVID death rates are very low.
Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, but this seems odd to me.
Going to the report itself, I don’t see much light shed. The number of countries involved in the obesity research was 154, but we don’t know which they are. One hint, though, is here [emphasis mine]:
We observe a statistically significant positive association between COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of the overweight in adult populations spanning 154 countries. This association holds across countries belonging to different income groups and is not sensitive to a population’s median age, proportion of the elderly, and/or proportion of females. The estimated elasticities of COVID-19 mortality, with respect to the proportion of the overweight in adult populations, are consistently higher for sub-samples of countries that belong to a higher income group.
So is this reported effect found only or mostly or most strongly in high-income groups within certain countries? Also, are some of the puzzling anomalies I see the result of other factors such as differing ages of the countries’ populations, differences for which the researchers have corrected? I have no idea, but perhaps there’s something like that involved. I know more than the average person about crunching numbers, but not enough to be able to decipher this. Perhaps some of you can do so.
There’s another clue towards the end of the article, where it says this: “our findings call for immediate and effective regulations (e.g. restrictions on ‘serving’ the market for food and beverages with items, the intake of which can result in the accumulation of excess body weight) that are long overdue.” Aha! So they’re seeking to make it more difficult (or at least more costly) for people to make their own food choices as they see fit, a la Bloomberg’s big gulp order. This fits in with much else that we’ve seen from health authorities regarding the use of COVID statistics to control people “for their own good.”
I love your last paragraph. Like CO2, the miracle molecule that controls all the weather, Covid is the miracle virus for which all secondary health ills can be blamed.
Since DeBlasio has banned large sodas in NYC, the death toll from Co id must be way down tbere.
One problem as you mentioned is various countries have used wildly different standards for classifying COVID deaths and that doesn’t even take into account China, Russia, Iran and others where the data is completely unreliable.
Fauci has been talking about vaccine mandates rather than obesity specifically, but he’s expressing the same old lust for power over others, or what St. Augustine called the libido dominandi:
Fauci said over the weekend: “There comes a time when you do have to give up what you consider your individual right of making your own decision for the greater good of society.”
https://notthebee.com/article/fauci-there-comes-a-time-when-you-do-have-to-give-up-your-individual-right-of-making-your-own-decision
I’m thinking the greater good would be better served by a liberal application of duct tape to Fauci’s mouth.
I’ve questioned the obesity correlation for some time. It’s purely anecdotal, but of the people I’ve personally known who have died, not one was obese. I got covid, I’m fat. I’m still here and I was not hospitalized. I’d been taking vitamin D and zinc for some time before hand. The few people I knew who died, I was not aware of any comorbidities. That is not too say there weren’t any — I just was not aware of what they were.
Why did people die? What precisely led to them dying of this disease?
The recent VA study let it slip that about half of those hospitalized “with covid” were hospitalized primarily for a different reason. Does that mean that the half who died was similar?
The politicization of this has been horrific. It’s done great damage to doctor -patient relationships. (I don’t know how much I trust my doctor anymore.)
Fauci et al deserve warm spots in hell.
Lee Also,
There has been some pretty interesting work done on death certificates in Florida by Jennifer Cabrera at the Rational Ground website. She went through hundreds of death certificates and found that the vast majority of deaths (in Florida anyway) were very, very sick and or very, very old and had all kinds of health problems.
Sadly, these people were on death’s door already so it’s really hard to say if it was COVID that got them or it was just their time.
Those who would end liberty fully deserve whatever fate befalls upon them.
Griffen beat me to it. The COVID death and case numbers are GIGO. And not by accident.
Griffin; geoffb:
As I wrote in the post, the reported death rates per million depend at least partly on “methods of defining and reporting.” They differ greatly from country to country, and they don’t necessarily represent the actual death rate from COVID.
Nevertheless, they’re what we have right now. And even if a person were to accept that they are true, I believe that there’s something very strange about this particular study, and those are the things I’m pointing out in the post.
neo,
Really the best country for all COVID data is the UK. I don’t know if they have done any work on COVID/obesity but in general they are the best when it comes to vaccines and the so called ‘breakthrough’ cases as well as the Delta variant and it’s supposed infectiousness (their data says not much more so).
In poorer countries wouldn’t obesity track with wealth? In developed countries obesity correlates with poverty.
Eva Marie,
Yes I would think so.
I’m reminded of Korea (and maybe other Asian countries) where pale skin denotes class. The site of women on the golf course with long sleeves and ‘sunbrellas’ is very common.
Tanned equates to working class (fishermen etc).
I think that the majority of the lack of correlation between these two sets of data lie with the “COVID-19 Deaths/M Population”. Worldwide, this data was contaminated from the very beginning by extremely inconsistent definitions and standards. Some countries (China) found it politically expediente to undercount and did so. Others found it expediente to overcount (USA and UK). It’s too late to go back and reconcile the data, so we will never know.
neo;
I know you pointed it out. I just at this point have no faith in any numbers that governments, private firms, academic researchers, news organizations etc. put out. They all seem to be pulled out of thin air for some political purpose. Thus they don’t “shed any light” to go into the particulars of their study. They know they can say anything as long as it fits the right politics.
This breakdown of trust is what happens when enough lies pollute the information streams. Probably considered a feature by the Left.
I am unable to locate the article in the Journal of American Medicine, But as best I can remember. 78% of those with covid troubles were overweight and of the 78% 40% well over weight. Over worked heart ect. How does covid know your age? Maybe you are not in good shape diet and exercise.
I think there is a significant climate/season related factor in infection rates.
I suspect these findings are mostly considering the fatality rate once infected versus overall population spread which is a precursor.
So, some countries don’t seem to have a lot of cases and therefore a rather low rate of death even if the deaths per case might be higher.
The problem is that data is hard to get. A cursory glance at Deaths/M divided by Cases/M shows some evidence to support that.
Said it before, the reduction in allowable BMI figures is prepping the battle space. Also said my father, all conference end at UConn–last season 1942– and noted for his speed was by today’s standards overweight.
Took him six months of Infantry combat to achieve his approved weight.
So, to take this thing seriously, we need to know the exact figures and BMI of each decedent and we’re not going to get that.
“The politicization of this has been horrific. It’s done great damage to doctor -patient relationships. (I don’t know how much I trust my doctor anymore.)”
Sorry, but that’s sheer rubbish. Docs don’t politicize unless their name is Fauci or Walensky, or they are ardent Lefties (which do exist! See the JAMA or NEJM editorial boards).
The CDC, FDA and NIH are all government organizations. Spelled G-o-v-e-r-n-m-e-n-t. If you have a poor doc, that is his deficiency alone. But if he is not allowed to see and study clinical data, whose fault is that? Not his.
The medical MSM (journals, etc) are in bed with them. As are the social media, which censor medical opinions because they are deemed “disinformation” by the scrupulously biased non-physicians employed there to censor, not to let truth be told.
You want to try to post something positive about Ivermectin on one of those sites? Good luck!
As to Neo’s post, taking care of the prone obese in hospital is a major chore. But why limit this study to obesity? The closing lines, of authoritarianism, make that clear: Starve them. Rations! To save the planet.
It’s a little harder to advise withholding insulin from diabetics. We cannot yet here kill inconvenient people except unborn babies, though snuffing the sick elderly, aka euthanasia, is on the march in the Netherlands.
What’s wrong with this paragraph?
If you take it literally, an infected person could be very slender but if they live in a country with a high rate of obesity then they’re gonna die. That’s nonsense, but we can guess what they probably mean. The researchers don’t have access to patient data on height and body weight or BMI, so they use the next best thing. General obesity trends. Which in reality results in a low grade analysis.
Oh, but we looked at billions of numbers and used cutting edge statistical analyses. Whoop dee doo.
____
Not to beat this point to death, but Dr. Seheult who had treated dozens of seriously ill covid patients in the San Diego area in the first half of 2020 discovered (or perhaps some other doc. was largely responsible) that there was a nearly perfect correlation between the severity of the illness and a serious deficiency in vitamin D3. He routinely prescribed a med to boost D3 ASAP. Apparently, just taking a some D3 pills does not take affect very quickly.
I’m sure there are many variables. I’m sure weather temperatures and humidity is a factor as well as sunlight intensity and exposure (D3 again).
The age profile is very different and age is by far the largest risk factor for COVID mortality. You’d need to stratify countries into old/obese (US, Europe) vs young/obese (Saudia Arabia, Egypt, Qatar).
The researchers have almost certainly done this and this is why they say “we observe a statistically significant positive association between COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of the overweight in adult populations spanning 154 countries. This association holds across countries belonging to different income groups and is not sensitive to a population’s median age, proportion of the elderly, and/or proportion of females. ” Yes, once you correct for all those other things, there is still danger from being obese.
For two countries with the same age distribution obesity will be the thing that drives the difference in rates. If they don’t the differing age distribution will drive.
Just like Wikipedia, you always have to ask “Is it science, or is it politics.”
Cicero —
“The politicization of this has been horrific. It’s done great damage to doctor -patient relationships. (I don’t know how much I trust my doctor anymore.)”
I can’t speak for Lee Also, but in my case I can’t tell if what my doctor tells me is:
(a) what he really thinks taking into account my medical history, my symptoms, and his expertise, or
(b) what he is required to say by the organization he works for, and policy set by local, state and federal governments.
It’s a little sad that a worldwide organization like the W.H.O. didn’t set out and specify reporting guidelines early in the pandemic, and issue updates and improvements-to-process as experiences accumulated, so that the data would be reasonably clean to support building new practical measures and facilitate learning. Setting standards and guidelines for medicine is what their mission is supposed to be, and where their authorities are clearly recognized.
I don’t think the metadata lends itself to bird’s eye overviews. I do know that throughout the pandemic, the doctors and nurses I know socially have consistently told me that it’s the old, the morbidly obese, and the cirrhotics that have succumbed in sufficient numbers to allow characterizing them as primary risk groups. Other co-morbidities, while common, are prone to cause COVID mortality in lesser numbers.
One thing COVID has done is expose the petty tyrants who surround us, and they are legion.
Clearly, in their minds, there is no issue that does not justify increased regulations, and sadly they have infested every seat of authority and power.
Mike Pence was on FNC tonight, beating his drum. He said that the American people will take it part way back in 2022, and finish the job in 2024. Sorry, Mr Pence, I think you are a bit delusional.
An old friend sent me one of those emails today that annotated many of the quaint practices we observed during our youth. I commented in return that we have come such a long way; but, the big question is “in what direction?’. As for kids back in the day, I have referred to us as “free range kids”. We were a symptom of a time when individuals, even kids, were generally responsible for themselves and their actions. Now, experts clamor to dictate our actions, but not take responsibility for the results.
(Sunday, our Pastor said, (paraphrasing) “I try to eliminate hate from my heart, and do pretty well, except for politicians. They lie to us, they are crooked, and they attempt to control our lives.” He could just as well have included bureaucrats and regulators in my opinion.)
Bryan Lovely,
Yes, my doctor about 18 months ago was all ‘masks are stupid, there have been coronaviruses forever yada, yada, yada’ then the next time I went about Sept. 2020 he was all ‘if people would just follow the rules blah, blah, blah’ then by early this year he was back to downplaying it.
He is a very experienced doctor and has been my doctor for 25 years but even he seemed to get swept up in it all. I was a little disappointed in him because he had always been very pragmatic about things but he lost his way on this I think. And by lost his way I mean thinking that masks and following the rules would do anything when that had never been something that anybody thought of before March ’20.
Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, but this seems odd to me.
You, unlike those who do the studies and those in the media who publish them, do not have a need to build up your self esteem by looking down on others.
I don’t doubt that obesity may be a factor, but I think that statistics aren’t dependable yet because of factors not yet accounted for. Not always because of politics but because we don’t know yet what they all are. What about exposure to the sun and Vitamin D? Supposedly they afford some protection, but if not factored into a study maybe there can’t be a useful result. Same with populations with low COVID case counts where a large proportion routinely have been prescribed ivermectin as a protection or treatment against parasites—I remember hearing that comment from an immunologist many months ago.
It’s hard to have confidence in any of the stats when you don’t know if it’s lack of knowledge, poor design, or political considerations that account for confusing results.
The point about vitamin D above, that it is a huge factor in who gets very sick or dies, also explains the obesity issue. Vitamin D is fat soluble so heavy people need more. The islanders get more sun. Peru is hard to explain.
There’s a huge amount of dishonesty in all of this, starting from Fauci, the CDC, “Biden”, the Democratic Party, the media, the drug companies and all the way on down.
Case in point:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/veritas-records-pfizer-scientists-your-antibodies-probably-better-vax-after-infection-wait
Key grafs:
“…’When somebody is naturally immune — like they got COVID — they probably have more antibodies against the virus…When you actually get the virus, you’re going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus…So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the [COVID] vaccination,’ said scientist Nick Karl…
“…A second Pfizer employee, Senior Associate Scientist Chris Croce echoed Karl – saying that those who have naturally acquired immunity are ‘probably more’ protected vs. the vaccine….
“…A third Pfizer scientist, Rahul Khandke, said that Pfizer pressures employees to conceal negative information from the public.
‘We’re bred and taught to be like, “vaccine is safer than actually getting COVID.” Honestly, we had to do so many seminars on this. You have no idea. Like, we have to sit there for hours and hours and listen to like — be like, “you cannot talk about this in public”…”
And so, why should the reports on “obesity”—or masks or anything else—emanating from the WHO, the CDC or the FDA (e.g.,) be any different?
To be sure people who are obese may well also have “comorbidities” (that magical word).
Remember, when NECESSARY, the death of a person who has both COVID AND a comorbidity (or two) will be registered as “death by COVID”…. When the opposite is deemed NECESSARY, then, well….
And when proven treatments are systematicall and consistently downplayed and ridiculed by the medical establishment (and those supporting it) then one KNOWS we are living in EVIL times….
On the other hand, what’s a doctor to do when the advice that’s being hand—OFFICIALLY—is dicey?
(The answer to that, certainly, is not simple. Not easy being a doctor in these benighted times. Actually, that’s an understatement….)
There are genetic links as well, one report which I saw quite recently (and can’t find again now) had maps showing the distribution of the allele that is associated with more severe disease, and it was much higher in South America than elsewhere. Sorry, I know that’s not much help.
I’ll give you my Big Gulp when you pry it from my cold fat, dead hands.
Dr. Ryan Cole also considers this to be a Vitamin D issue. See https://amgreatness.com/2021/10/02/heroes-of-the-pandemic/
My wife is a nurse in a Boston hospital and she saw several factors for hospitalization and death.
I think viral load, pre-existing comorbidities, internal inflammation and possibly race are major factors. Of course age too!
Obviously if you’ve had cancer or diabetes you’re at much higher risk. Lower immune system.
So obese have a lot of inflammation from their fat cells. They’re probably not as active outside so they have lower vitamin D levels.
There seemed to be a significant amount of Spanish, Portuguese and Greeks in her hospital. So perhaps there is a racial component? Maybe related to absorption of vitamin D? But then again her hospital was located closer to those racial neighborhoods. So maybe related to viral load?
Lots of Uber drivers and professional housekeepers. They’re people who increase their likelihood of coming into contact with infected people inside or in a closed space. Maybe also related to those cultures with generations living all in one home together.
Population density seems like a big factor. Even if you sort Worldometer data you see states like New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts at the top. I think viral load plays a big part. If you’re going in elevators, subways or staying inside buildings you’re increasing your likelihood of getting it.
States and countries within older populations got hit hard. Italy for example was hit hard because of their older populations.
I suspect if your income is higher you’re living in a larger home with more space and fewer people in it your less likely to get cv-19 versus an immigrant family with several generations all living in one triple Decker.
Seasonality probably plays a part. Southern states got hit hard this summer because it’s too hot outside so everyone is indoors in the AC.
Covid knows what it likes and finds those people. I think it’s important to get outside, exercise, take vitamins to reduce inflammation. The government didn’t suggest any of this. They kept people in lockdown, got people fat. Depressed people and caused them to drink and get drunk. When you drink heavily you cause your body to lose nutrients that make you susceptible to covid.
My wife is thin and in shape and she had covid patients coughing on her as she cared for them. All the while only wearing flimsy surgical masks because of PPE shortage at her hospital. Meanwhile her sister who is obese and a nurse and at hospital that had quality PPE got covid the very first day she worked at hospital.
The answer will require a multi-variant (pardon the pandemic pun) analysis.
The cause of covid death won’t be a single reason anymore than the so called wage gap is caused by single reason of sexism.
By the way the Emergency rooms are filled with “mental health boarders”. These are psyche patients that are waiting for beds in mental health facilities but there aren’t any beds. So they’re filling up ED’s. The MSM only likes to type unvaccinated covid infected patients as scapegoats when in fact the downstream effects of government forced lockdowns are causing nurses to be burned out and quit.
Saw something about “g allele” or “gg allele” — not into biology at all. However sub-Saharan Africa and Peru are opposites (one has the most common and the other the least), and the author believed there was a link to COVID mortality.
I am comfortable with some higher math, and I know from the solid-C I got in multivariate calculus that you can have a bunch of different factors that make it things less of a simple curve and of a 3-dimensional wave (like a putting green), and changing one factor merely changes part of the wave, while leaving other areas unchanged.
I’m probably a Python class and a calculus-based statistics class away from really being useful in this discussion. Perhaps in 5-6 years when COVID withers away I can take a few classes and post something enlightening. In the meantime I’ll be in the gym.
MattE,
Thanks for the link to that extraordinary and essential article—a comprehensive rundown of physicians and virologists who vehemently oppose (and explain their reasons) the decision made by the WHO, CDC, NIH, FDA, etc., viz., that massive vaccination is THE ONLY EFFECTIVE WAY to fight and cure COVID.
According to this group of 15 experts, this “official” policy is grotesquely, criminally and tragically mistaken.
The article is a tremendous eye-opener and points out the sinister aspects of the “official” policy; of the “Narrative”—an utterly wrongheaded policy that one of the doctors interviewed, Dr. Craig M. Wax, calls “therapeutic nihilism”.
OTOH the same doctor said something that wasn’t too clear to me:
“…Wax emphasizes the importance of a healthy lifestyle, but warns that even low-risk persons may be severely affected by this disease. This is likely due to yet unconfirmed risk factors like blood type, A, B, or AB versus O….”
It’s that last sentence that’s a bit hazy. I understand him as saying that three blood types A, B, or AB MAY present an additional (though as yet unconfirmed) risk factor, relative to blood type O, which presents a LOWER level of risk…
…but I’m not sure if this is what he’s trying to say.
Any help here would be appreciated….
Thanks again.
As I predicted last week, the Delta is basically in complete collapse on the national level in terms of new cases/day. Serious cases also in major decline. There are some states showing some “reluctance” in large decreases. Not surprisingly those are states with D governors. Again, no mention of this whatsoever in the media, Fox and Newsmax included. WUWT??? This should be huge news.
Again, I ask Neo for a way to at least post a jpg file. I would greatly wish to show everyone the data I have accumulated now for over 550 days for national data and the states I follow: CT, NH, NC, CO, GA, and FL.
Guy- good comprehensive rundown!
A correlation that occurred to me when looking at the high COVID mortality countries is: smoking. It’s clear Vitamin D is critical, and many of the countries with high death tolls are in parts of the world where it’s more uncomfortable to go outside and get your Vitamin D. Don’t many of those same countries have higher than average rates of smoking (I’m thinking specifically Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechia)?
“the researchers employed cutting-edge techniques of statistical analyses”
Would be nice if they said what those techniques might be. Sounds like a job for plain old multiple regression analysis to me.
(YEARS ago, I was crossing out the phrase “cutting edge” on press release drafts and adding the annotation “too hackneyed.”)
@Aggie:
“It’s a little sad that a worldwide organization like the W.H.O. didn’t set out and specify reporting guidelines early in the pandemic…”
1] The WHO may be part of the problem.
2] Would China, Russia, etc. actually follow the guidelines?
Maybe neo would allow physicsguy to do a guest post with images from his graph and explanations?
Some others have alluded to this new study. “G” has a protective effect against severe covid, while “A” does not. G is common in Africa, and to a much much lesser extent in Europe; rare in Asia and the America’s, particularly Peru. Presumably indigenous people have the A gene in high amounts. If you have done 23andme etc you can see your own status-I happen to be A/G, as is half of my family; no one is GG, some are A/A. This gene may account for the terrible havoc by Covid we saw in Peru, but I suspect we will find other genes.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj3624#F2
I agree that something malicious is going on….
https://amgreatness.com/2021/10/04/canadian-doctor-says-something-malicious-is-going-on-after-hes-punished-for-treating-covid-patients-with-ivermectin/
Here is a story about death certificates of ‘COVID deaths’ by Jennifer Cabrera. She looked at 700 of them.
https://covidreason.substack.com/p/we-got-access-to-700-covid-19-death?r=7ikwa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=
@Tina:
Re: OAS1 / rs10774671
(Seems to have been a pretty boring old gene until Covid came along.)
https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs10774671
Thanks for the link!
FWIW, I found that my 23andMe raw data dump did not contain any entry for rs10774671 but my AncestryDNA genetic data did have it. These from mid 2018, so later or earlier 23andMe assay chips could be finding it. Or maybe it just got lost in the wash when mine was done.
Anyway I’m A/A so I’ll just go revise my will now. Om: you’ll be getting my collection of Mao Badges.
This isn’t demonstrated as causal because there is no identified mechanism. It’ an abuse of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
The obesity problem can be handled if you limit your holiday treats to this.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/858cfa0a5ea4e4eb401256774a6e48405b552e7d0b10186af81ce22eabedec11.jpg